Giants Designate Cody Hall For Assignment
The Giants have designated right-hander Cody Hall for assignment, per MLB.com’s Chris Haft (Twitter link). The move creates a roster spot for the newly-signed Denard Span.
Hall, who just turned 28 earlier this week, made his Major League debut in 2015, posting a 6.48 ERA over 8 1/3 relief innings for San Francisco. Hall was a 19th-round draft pick for the Giants in 2011, and he’s pitched exclusively as a reliever over the course of his pro career. In 254 1/3 minor league frames, Hall has a 2.62 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and 3.26 K/BB rate. Baseball America ranked Hall as the Giants’ 19th-best prospect prior to the 2015 season, although this past year wasn’t his best. Hall worked to a 3.46 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 67 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level. He also made his big league debut, tossing 8 1/3 innings for the Giants but yielding six runs on 10 hits and four walks for a 6.48 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in that brief sample.
Hall joins five other players in DFA limbo according to the MLB Trade Rumors DFA Tracker.
Quick Hits: Mets, Epstein, Giants, Padres
The Mets want a reliever, but they’ll patiently wait for one to fall into their lap, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. Antonio Bastardo and Tyler Clippard are both options, but GM Sandy Alderson doesn’t want to go beyond a one-year contract for either. Bastardo is asking for three-years while Clippard’s demands are unknown. Alderson has a history of finding relievers during Spring Training, and the club does possess decent, if unproven, depth at the position.
Here’s more from around the league:
- Preliminary contract extension talks have occurred between the Cubs and President Theo Epstein, tweets 670 The Score. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts says the two sides are “generally on the same page,” with regards to the talks. Epstein is entering the final season of a five-year, $18.5MM deal signed in 2011.
- Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Grant Brisbee of SB Nation analyzed the Giants‘ offseason to date. He figures the additions of Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Denard Span over Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Chris Heston, and Nori Aoki add up to eight wins on paper. Brisbee uses 2016 projections for the newly added Giants and compares them to the actual 2015 performance of the outgoing players. The upgrades cost a bundle of money, putting to rest complaints that the front office is stingy.
- There is a feeling the Padres may be nearing an end to their shortstop search, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. The club has used 18 shortstops since 2009, and their best prospects at the position are at least two years away. Free agents Ian Desmond and Alexei Ramirez have been most closely tied to the Padres. Desmond is coming off an ill-timed down season, and he has a history of suspect defense. When asked about what he wants from a shortstop, GM A.J. Preller said “I think in an ideal world, you want someone who is an intelligent player, a leader and captain of your infield, the ability to make the plays on the move, on the run, up the middle, in the hole. Someone, when the ball is hit to him late in the game, it’s an out.” While that may not sound like a taut fit for Desmond, Ramirez also had a choppy defensive season in 2015. While Brock doesn’t mention him, I wonder if the Padres might not be looking at Jimmy Rollins. He’s arguably the most sure-handed of the bunch.
Olney On Piazza, Upton, Davis, Bastardo, Giants
Mike Piazza‘s induction into the Hall of Fame could help the cases for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, writes Buster Olney of ESPN (Insider Only). With Piazza increasing from 57.8 percent to 83 percent of the vote in just four years, Olney figures that writers will need to consider the hypocrisy of their voting behavior. While Piazza (and fellow candidate Jeff Bagwell) are suspected by some writers of having used PEDs, Clemens and Bonds are known users. In my opinion, that will supply all the rationalization needed by intransigent writers.
On to current baseball news:
- The Orioles are the beneficiaries of the Denard Span signing. As one of the few teams with money and a pressing need in the outfield, they have leverage in talks with players like Justin Upton. Olney is not the first to wonder if Upton would sign a pillow contract to play with the Orioles. The Rangers are another team interested in Upton on a one-year contract.
- While Baltimore may eventually sign Chris Davis, some in the organization would like to reduce their seven-year, $150MM offer or simply move on to other players. To me, it seems as though Davis is playing a dangerous game of chicken. However, agent Scott Boras has successful navigated similar scenarios. One notable example is the Cardinals‘ signing of Matt Holliday to a seven-year, $120MM deal prior to the 2010 season.
- In further Baltimore-related news, the club has “a lot of interest” in southpaw reliever Antonio Bastardo. He’s coming off a successful campaign with the Pirates. He posted a 2.98 ERA, 10.05 K/9 and 4.08 BB/9 in 57 innings – numbers similar to his career marks. As a fly ball pitcher, Bastardo may not be the best fit for the mostly small ball parks of the AL East. However, Bastardo did have success preventing home runs in Citizen’s Bank Park for most of his career. If the O’s inked Bastardo, they would probably trade fellow lefty Brian Matusz.
- The Giants would benefit from more roster depth, but they won’t use the free agent market to build it. Olney figures the club will explore trades for additional personnel.
Market Notes: Davis, Parra, Angels, Span
Scott Boras is “pushing to create options” for his power-hitting client, Chris Davis, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Per Olney, Boras has been “selling” teams on Davis’s ability to be an everyday corner outfielder as well as a first baseman. We’ve heard that suggestion previously, of course — including from Boras himself — but it’s certainly interesting to hear that the super-agent is still pressing the concept this late in the offseason.
Here’s more on the free agent market:
- We’ve heard that the Rockies have continued interest in Gerardo Parra, with Jon Heyman saying yesterday that the team is pushing to add him. Indeed, says Chris Cotillo of SB Nation, Colorado is aggressively pursuing the veteran outfielder. (Twitter links.) The Nationals and Angels are among the other teams that are at least dabbling in Parra’s market, he adds. Obviously, a signing by Colorado would be doubly interesting, as it could suggest that the team is lining up a deal involving one of its incumbents.
- Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, on the other hand, hears that the Angels are “still not really involved” in the top of the free agent outfield market. (Twitter link.) That includes Parra as well as players like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Dexter Fowler. Fletcher adds that he sees a trade for a lower-cost option, such as Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies, to be a more realistic outcome.
- Denard Span said in his introductory press conference today that he feels good and is well on track to be at full speed this spring, as CSN Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic reports. He chose San Francisco, per Boras (who is also his agent), because the team met his three-year ask and were “a priority because of the fit for them and the fit for Denard.” Club CEO Larry Baer, meanwhile, said that “Denard has been on our radar for a long time.“
- Span drew real interest from the Orioles, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, but Baltimore was never going to guarantee more than a single season. Unsurprisingly, the O’s weren’t alone in that regard, as Boras says that fully eleven teams had interest in Span on a one-year arrangement, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports.
Giants Sign Denard Span
The Giants have announced the signing of free agent outfielder Denard Span to a three-year contract. He’ll reportedly receive a $31MM guarantee in the deal, which includes a fourth-year mutual option at $12MM with a $4MM buyout. After taking home a $6MM signing bonus and a $3MM salary for 2016, Span will earn two consecutive $9MM annual payouts.
Span, who turns 32 in February, can also earn incentives of up to $5MM. He can tack $1MM onto his salary in 2016, and up to $2MM apiece in the following two years, by hitting plate appearance thresholds that culminate at 525 turns at bat annually. Span is a client of the Boras Corporation.
With the move, San Francisco is set to add yet another significant free agent after previously inking Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. The first two signings upgraded the rotation, of course, while the move to bring on Span will bolster an outfield corps that had looked in need of an addition. While the club previously chased Ben Zobrist, who might have provided some infield depth as well as a regular option in left, it seems plausible to think that Span’s signing will wrap up the club’s major offseason business.
It’s unclear at present what precise role Span will play. He’s spent the bulk of his time in center, but could also be an option in left. Angel Pagan has been the team’s regular option up the middle in recent years, but he (like Span) has dealt with quite a few injuries. And Gregor Blanco is also capable of playing there.
All three of those players ought to cover things in center and left, with Hunter Pence likely getting the bulk of the action in right. But he, too, could also be spelled at times against right-handed pitching. While Pagan is a switch-hitter, he’s performed better from the left side over his career. (The same holds true, unsurprisingly, for the left-handed-hitting Span and Blanco, though none have dramatic platoon splits.)
The overall mix has its share of upside but also comes with some risk. All three of the returning players missed time last year, and Span has battled through core muscle and hip surgeries in the last year. It’s notable, too, that Span is the youngest of the bunch. But the presence of a high-quality fourth outfielder in Blanco, as well as some younger options in the system, certainly helps.
In Span, the Giants will get one of the best contact hitters in all of baseball. Over the last three years, Span ranks second — behind Michael Brantley and in front of just-departed Giants left fielder Nori Aoki — in overall contact rate.
And that approach has translated into results. While he doesn’t leave the yard very often, Span delivers plenty of extra-base hits with his line-drive and ground-ball heavy stroke. Since joining the Nationals via trade before the 2013 season, he has posted a sturdy .292/.345/.404 batting line, good for a 109 wRC+. And those numbers trended up over his time in D.C.
Of course, the fleet-footed Span also contributes quite a bit on the bases. He’s a significant stolen base threat — his 62 steals dating to the start of 2013 rank 22nd in baseball — but the value goes beyond that as well. Span has received positive marks from Fangraphs’ BsR metric in every season of his career, making him one of the game’s thirty best overall runners in that time frame.
Defensively, Span is a tough player to value. Metrics once valued him as a well-above-average center fielder. But the more recent results suggest that his range has declined. Last year, UZR hit Span with his worst-ever rating and DRS charged him with a rather remarkable -10 defensive runs saved over just 523 innings in the field.
The contract falls somewhat shy of the three-year, $39MM pact predicted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes at the outset of the winter, but Span’s market was always tough to call given that he ended the season on the DL. If nothing else, the fact that he reached a third guaranteed year shows that there’s still plenty of demand on the market.
Jon Heyman first reported that a deal was close, via Twitter, and added details on the incentives clause (on Twitter), as did Bob Nightengale of USA Today (in a tweet). Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweeted the guarantee. Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News first noted that there were incentives (Twitter link). Baggarly (on Twitter) and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (in a tweet) had details of the mutual option. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports had the full breakdown of the deal on Twitter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
NL West Notes: Span, Giants, Maeda, Parra, Rea
The Giants expect to install Denard Span in center field and at the top of the lineup, pushing Angel Pagan to left, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News writes, Having added Span, moreover, San Francisco appears not to be involved in the rest of the outfield market, according to Baggarly (via Twitter). Indeed, it’s not even clear that the team was looking elsewhere recently. Though Jon Morosi of FOX Sports had tweeted yesterday that the club was interested in Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes, Bob Nightengale of USA Today said after the Span signing (via Twitter) that the organization “never considered” a long-term arrangement with either player before locking up Span.
Here’s more from the NL West:
- While all involved acknowledged that the MRI results led to Kenta Maeda signing a lighter-than-expected deal with the Dodgers, club president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman says that the righty is “totally asymptomatic,” as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links). The concerning results were not discovered during a team physical after a deal, Shaikin adds, but were apparent from the medicals submitted by Maeda to all MLB teams — which may explain why his market was so quiet.
- The Rockies are “making a push” for free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter, though they aren’t alone. He previously noted Colorado’s interest, which would seem to make the most sense if the club is prepared to ship out one of its current starting outfielders.
- Padres righty Colin Rea moved quickly to reach the majors last year, and MLB.com’s Corey Brock writes that he’s looking forward to competing for a rotation spot this spring. Rea, 25, did end up being shutdown with elbow/forearm soreness, though he says that was precautionary.
Quick Hits: Buehrle, Rodney, Nationals, Rangers, White Sox, Uggla
Free agent left-hander Mark Buehrle is not planning on playing in 2016 at this time, though the veteran isn’t yet prepared to announce his retirement from baseball, either, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). The soon-to-be 37-year-old’s future has been a debated topic in the past, as some reports indicated that he was planning to retire before Buehrle himself told ESPN Chicago’s Doug Padilla back in October that he’d yet to make a decision on the matter. Another report indicated that if Buehrle were to pitch in 2016, it’d most likely happen if St. Louis showed interest in the Missouri native. Buehrle’s 2015 season wasn’t as strong as his 2014 season, but he nonetheless recorded a solid 3.81 ERA across 198 2/3 innings. That final innings tally left him just four outs shy of recording his remarkable 15th consecutive season of 200+ innings.
A few more notes from around the league…
- Cotillo also tweets that right-hander Fernando Rodney is in “active talks” with multiple clubs, noting that the Padres, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Cubs are all in the mix at this time. San Diego, Chicago and Toronto have previously been linked to Rodney, though Arizona would seem to represent a fairly new entrant into his market. Rodney had a dreadful season with the Mariners in 2015 but turned it around following a trade to the Cubs, yielding just one earned run in 12 innings with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio down the stretch (Rodney did, however, also plunk three batters in his brief Cubs tenure).
- We’ve heard about the Nationals‘ interest in Gerardo Parra before, and James Wagner of the Washington Post writes that it’s still alive. GM Mike Rizzo was Arizona’s scouting director when the club signed Parra, and the Nats also tried to acquire him from the Brewers this summer, Wagner reminds. Wagner notes that Parra’s so-so OBP and declining defensive ratings make him a questionable fit in Washington, but the team’s goal remains adding some outfield depth to protect against injuries to Jayson Werth and uncertainty surrounding the talented but raw Michael A. Taylor. Wagner opines that from a purely speculative standpoint, Shane Victorino makes some sense for the Nationals as a player who can cover the outfield corners and play center in a pinch if need be.
- Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that Rangers fans shouldn’t expect to see Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Yovani Gallardo in a Rangers uniform next season, as the team doesn’t have the payroll capacity to add any of the three. A trade for Marcell Ozuna is also unlikely, per Wilson, though the Rangers do still hope to add some rotation depth before the offseason is up. GM Jon Daniels tells Wilson that there are still some affordable names on the open market that have piqued the Rangers’ interest. Wilson also notes that Colby Lewis‘ physical — the final step before his reported one-year, $6MM contract becomes official — is slated for next Monday.
- The White Sox aren’t in a rush to add a big-ticket outfielder to the mix, writes MLB.com’s Scott Merkin. The Sox “seem content to wait and ensure that any free-agent deal would fit their need and parameters,” he continues, writing that it’s likely that Upton and Cespedes will eventually be offered more years and dollars than the ChiSox care to place on the table.
- Dan Uggla has spoken to three or four teams that are eyeing infield depth, Cotillo tweets. Uggla is set to turn 36 this March and is coming off a season in which he batted just .183/.298/.300 in 141 plate appearances with the Nationals, so any contract to which he agrees figures to be of the minor league variety.
- Zach Buchanan of the Arizona Republic spoke to executives and scouts from each league to ask which NL West division rival has the better pitching staff heading into the 2016 season: the D-backs or the Giants. While the officials to whom Buchanan spoke seemed to agree that, in a vacuum, the D-backs made more impactful acquisitions this offseason (referring to Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller in comparison to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija), when factoring in the cost of said acquisitions, there’s an argument to be made for the Giants’ side of the equation. Buchanan also polled officials on which club’s top three starters were more impressive, adding lefties Patrick Corbin and Madison Bumgarner to the mix, which generated mixed responses.
West Notes: Reyes, Maeda, Kazmir, Fowler
An MLB source tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that there is still no timeline regarding possible disciplinary action against Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes. (Twitter link.) That appears to be due, at least in part, to the fact that the criminal proceedings have not been wrapped up. While the league’s domestic violence policy does not require criminal action for the commissioner to impose punishment, there is arguably less cause to move swiftly given that the allegations arose during the offseason.
- The Astros made a play for Japanese hurler Kenta Maeda before he reached agreement with the Dodgers, according to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Houston remains an interesting potential factor in the free agent market. While the team probably does not need to make a splash, it is not difficult to imagine the team emerging as a dark horse for several players.
- Houston was also said to have had interest in retaining Scott Kazmir before he decided to join the Dodgers, and it appears they were far from alone in that regard. The veteran lefty said that a dozen clubs had at least some communication with his camp this winter, J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group tweets.
- The fact that free agent outfielder Dexter Fowler appeared at a Golden State Warriors game recently should not be interpreted as a sign he’s about to sign with the Giants, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News tweets. He hears that “nothing is cooking” between Fowler and the club at this time. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Chris Haft looks at the fit of some of San Francisco’s possible outfield targets.
The Dollar Value Of Recent Opt-Out Clauses
Following a wave of multi-year club options attached to deals, players and their agents have begun to request and receive player options in recent years as well. David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jason Heyward have each received them this winter, meaning that quantification of such deals is essential for careful team building. (Editor’s note: this article was written before the Dodgers reached an agreement with Scott Kazmir.) Everyone up to the commissioner has expressed concern that these “opt-out” clauses have been included in deals, and some feel teams simply should not give them. However, this is akin to saying that teams should not pay players above the league minimum salary—of course teams would like to do this, but you need to give players compensation to sign them. An opt-out is a way to lower the cost in dollars to the team, because the player will want more money otherwise.
Each of these three deals would be substantially more expensive without opt-out provisions—each opt-out clause is worth around $20MM, by my calculations. To test this, I looked at how a rough weighting of previous years’ WAR would affect a future projection, and compared this to how that projection would crystalize as it got closer. This led to an estimate that a very rough projection of future value 2-3 years in advance would change by about 1.0 WAR over the following 2-3 years. A more sophisticated system would probably change by about 0.7 WAR as it gets closer—and dollar value would probably change by about $7MM per year after accounting for overall uncertainty in salary levels. (The relationship between dollars and WAR utilized in this post is explained at this link.)
Given that potential level of variation, there are still a wide band of possibilities in terms of what a given player’s expected future value will be at the point of decision on an opt-out. But at base, an opt out is a binary choice: yes or no. Based on what we know now, and based on reasonable projections, we can estimate a given player’s future expected value at that point of decision by weighting different possible outcomes.
In other words, if Player X opts out, we can assume it is because his anticipated value at the point of that decision is higher than that which he would have earned through the remaining portion of the contract. But we don’t know exactly how much higher. So, to arrive at a value for the scenario in which a player does opt out, I’ve weighted all of those possibilities and reduced them to a single dollar value. The same holds true of the situations in which the player does not opt out.
We’ll get into each player’s situation further below, but this table shows the results of the exercise. (App users can click on this link to see the table image.)
David Price received a contract for seven years at $217MM, but it was really a three-year contract for $90MM with a player option of four years and $127MM. If Price only held teams to a three-year commitment, he would probably get close to $120MM—but this is not what he did. Instead, he will require $127MM for 2019-22, only on the condition that he looks to be worth less than that by then. Although $127MM is not a terrible estimate of his 2019-22 production as of January 2016, this value will probably change drastically by October 2018, one way or the other. If he does not opt out, he probably will have performed worse, and conditional on the assumption that he will not have opted out, I estimate his expected value for his 2019-22 seasons to be $80MM. If he does opt out, he probably will have performed better, and conditional on the assumption that he will have opted out, I estimate his expected value for those seasons to be $170MM. Given that this corresponds to roughly a 40% chance of opting out, his opt-out clause is worth about $17MM, meaning that his seven-year $217MM contract is roughly equivalent to a seven-year $234MM contract with no opt-out clause.
Johnny Cueto’s contract is somewhat trickier, but it essentially amounts to a deal of two years for $46MM, with a player option of four years and $84MM, followed by a club option of one year for $16MM. Cueto would probably be worth $17MM above his salary for 2016-17. But for 2018-21, he is likely to be worth $50MM if he does not opt out and $117MM if he does. With roughly even odds of opting out, this makes his opt-out worth about $17MM. While the club option for 2022 makes the deal somewhat more attractive for the Giants, the odds that he will be worth much more than this are low. Overall, Cueto’s six-year deal for $130MM would probably cost about $147MM with no opt-out clause.
Jason Heyward’s contract is even trickier, but it mostly boils down to a three-year deal for $78MM, followed by a five-year player option for $106MM—except that the first player option (if exercised) is only certain to include one more year for $20MM. That’s because there’s a vesting provision that, if triggered—by Heyward reaching 550 plate appearances in the season following the initial option decision—would give him yet another player option for four years and $86MM. (If he exercises the initial option but then doesn’t reach that PA threshold, then both sides would be stuck with the remaining four years of the contract.) Heyward’s value is further complicated by the fact that signing him required forfeiting a draft pick, which is worth around $9MM.
Although Heyward’s contract contains two opt-outs, it is not all that likely that he opts out after 2019 if he does not after 2018. Players’ values do change substantially, but he is likely to be either much more valuable than his five-year player option after 2018, or much less valuable. It is not that we expect his value to look similar after 2018 and 2019—it is that he will probably already be way above or way below the current expected value near $20MM per year, and is likely to remain way above or way below this line through 2019.
For the first three years of Heyward’s contract, I estimate that he is worth about $22MM more than his contract will pay him. With five years of player option, there is a wide range of potential values afterward. I estimate that he also has about even odds of opting out, but if he does not opt out then he is probably only worth $65MM, while if he does he would be worth $157MM. If he doesn’t opt out after 2018 and does after 2019, he is likely near the middle and the value of the second opt-out is small. The net effect is that his opt-out clauses are worth about $25MM, and he would probably have received $209MM for eight years instead of $184MM had no opt-out been included in the deal.
With values of $17MM for each of the two pitchers and $25MM for Heyward’s pair of opt-outs, these opt-outs help keep costs down for teams. While they contain more downside and less upside than typical free agent contracts, they cost less money as well. As teams move forward in this new market, they should be careful to properly consider the true cost of these player options. If teams are willing to expose themselves to some downside risk, they can lower the cost of acquiring elite players.
Quick Hits: Shapiro, Kendrick, Chapman, Parra
Mark Shapiro’s tenure as president of the Blue Jays hasn’t exactly been met with a full embrace by the team’s fans, but he tells John Lott of the National Post that he’s focused on the job at hand rather than worrying about criticism. “I think it’s just inefficient for me to spend a lot of time and energy on that,” says Shapiro. “What I think fans ultimately want is for me to work for this team and make it as good as it can possibly be. If I spend my energy worrying about how to be popular, it’ll be time away from doing the job. That’s not what I’m going to do.” The piece offers a lengthy and interesting look at the veteran executive, and is well worth a full read.
Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:
- When asked about free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick today, Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said that the organization “feel[s] pretty set” at the position at this point, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The Dodgers will utilize Chase Utley and Kike Hernandez there, he said, indicating that there’s little reason for the club to pursue a reunion with Kendrick. Otherwise, per Zaidi, the team could still add another starter and is “still evaluating” its options in the bullpen (via J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group, on Twitter).
- Zaidi also addressed the Dodgers‘ reported deal with the Reds for Aroldis Chapman, via another Shaikin tweet. Los Angeles wasn’t “comfortable making the move” and “moved on” after allegations of a domestic dispute involving Chapman surfaced.
- Unsurprisingly, Gerardo Parra is expected to wait to sign until the top of the outfield market sheds some names, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. He is still drawing interest from the Royals, Nationals, Giants, and Angels, per the report.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a broader look at the outfield market and wonders what teams could be readying to spring. The Nats top his list, followed by four AL clubs: the White Sox, Orioles, Tigers, and Angels. I agree with Sherman’s assessment that the market will still likely pay these players, as I recently wrote. As an anonymous GM told Sherman: “You will have some owners soon say, ‘Wow, we can have this guy rather than what we have now.’ That is when the aggressiveness comes back in.”