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MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

Zaidi: Giants Plan To Pursue Rotation Help, Defensive Upgrades In Outfield

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The Giants head into the offseason in search of ways to bolster a team that has produced just one winning record in the past seven seasons. San Francisco flirted with Wild Card contention for much of the 2023 campaign, but a 9-19 finish to the season dashed any hopes of returning to the playoffs. Not only that, but the team’s late collapse doomed manager Gabe Kapler, who was dismissed after four years on the job and replaced by future Hall of Fame skipper Bob Melvin.

The Giants’ hiring of Melvin dovetailed with an extension for president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi, both of whom are now signed through 2026. Zaidi kicked off his winter with a fair bit of transparency, candidly acknowledging in an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea that his team is “going to be in the starting pitching market” and that he’ll also be on the lookout for ways to augment his outfield alignment. Specifically, Zaidi hopes to improve his outfield’s glovework. “We’ll look to add a little bit more speed, a little bit more range to the outfield,” Zaidi tells Shea.

At least as far as the outfield upgrades are concerned, the trade market will present more options than free agency. Cody Bellinger is the top outfielder (and top non-Shohei Ohtani) free agent of the offseason, and the former Dodgers star is quite familiar to Zaidi, who served as the general manager in Los Angeles before being hired away by the division-rival Giants. That said, Scott Boras will surely be seeking a massive contract for Bellinger on the heels of a resurgent season, and given the dearth of quality hitters on the market, competition for him could be steep.

Other outfield options with plus gloves include Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor (to name a few). Kiermaier and Bader come with plenty of injury concern, however, and all three have inconsistent offensive track records (at best). Perhaps for those reasons, Zaidi at least alluded to the possibility of operating on the trade market — noting that younger (and thus more athletic players) tend to come via that market rather than free agency. KBO star Jung Hoo Lee, who’ll be posted by the Kiwoom Heroes this winter, could bring some of that youth and athleticism to the table, as he’s just 25 years of age. However, his season ended early with an ankle injury, and MLB evaluators are split on the extent of his defensive value in the outfield.

The Giants’ current outfield alignment figures to include some combination of Mike Yastrzemski, Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto, who exercised an $18MM player option yesterday and will now return for a second season at Oracle Park. Alternative options on the 40-man roster include Austin Slater, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos, Wade Meckler and Blake Sabol. That group was lackluster in the field, ranking 22nd in the Majors with -7 Defensive Runs Saved and 27th with -13 Outs Above Average.

As far as the pitching is concerned, it’s a natural and obvious need for the Giants to pursue. Ace Logan Webb will return to front the rotation, and the Giants picked up their $10MM club option on righty Alex Cobb (a net $8MM decision when factoring in the option’s $2MM buyout). Top prospect Kyle Harrison made his MLB debut in 2023 but has just seven big league starts to his name. Ross Stripling picked up a player option and will be back in the mix next year, though he’s plenty familiar working in a swingman capacity. Righty Anthony DeSclafani is signed through 2024 under a three-year, $36MM contract, but he’s pitched just 118 2/3 innings of 5.16 ERA ball during that deal due to ankle and forearm injuries — the former of which required surgery.

For much of the season’s second half, the Giants operated with only a pair of traditional starters. Bullpen games were a frequent tactic, with Stripling, Sean Manaea (who declined a player option) and Keaton Winn among the pitchers who were tasked with working long relief stints in such settings. Given the lack of established rotation talent, starting pitching is an obvious area of focus the team.

Zaidi acknowledged that he expects to talk with Manaea and his agents at the Boras Corporation about a potential return, but the starting pitching market is generally considered to be a deep one this offseason. Beyond Ohtani (who won’t pitch in 2024), 25-year-old NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto headlines this year’s class. Countryman Shota Imanaga is also well-regarded and available for MLB teams to sign. More known commodities include Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez, though as shown on yesterday’s Top 50 Free Agent List here at MLBTR, the options beyond those top tiers are plentiful.

Michael Conforto Exercises Player Option With Giants

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Outfielder Michael Conforto has exercised his player option and will stay with the Giants for 2024, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Conforto could have opted out and become a free agent but will instead stay in San Francisco and make a salary of $18MM next year.

Conforto, 31 in June, signed a two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants coming into the 2023 season. He was allowed to opt out of the deal after the first season, so long as he took at least 350 trips to the plate in that initial campaign. He easily eclipsed that figure, getting to 470 PAs, but the quality of his work was only so-so. He hit 15 home runs on the year, well below his 30-per-year run from a few years ago. His .239/.334/.384 line amounted to a wRC+ of 100, indicating he was exactly league average.

The decision on whether or not to opt out was arguably borderline, despite the tepid season. This winter’s free agent market is considered to be light in terms of impact bats, which could have perhaps given Conforto a boost. He also demonstrated his health after missing the entire 2022 season, which was somewhat encouraging on its own. But on the other hand, there likely would not have been tons of momentum behind him if he decided to return to free agency.

Conforto had an incredibly strong run from 2017 to 2020, hitting 97 home runs in that time and slashing .265/.369/.495 for a wRC+ of 133. But his batting line dipped to .232/.344/.384 in 2021, with just 14 homers. That was an ill-timed down year, as it preceded Conforto’s free agency. He turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets in search of a more significant deal but ended up injuring his shoulder during that winter’s lockout. He eventually required surgery and missed the entire 2022 campaign.

The Giants took a shot on a post-surgery bounceback, though it didn’t quite work out. If he had returned to free agency, he would have had a hard time marketing himself. On the one hand, he has some very strong past results and is coming off a healthy campaign. But two of the past three years have featured fairly tepid offense, with a totally lost year in between. The shortened 2020 season obviously wasn’t his fault, but the fact remains that Conforto hasn’t been both healthy and clearly above average at the plate for a full season since 2019. Since he’s not considered an especially strong defender, that declining offense obviously hurts his earning power.

Conforto now slots into the outfield depth chart for the 2024 Giants, alongside Luis Matos, Mike Yastrzemski, Mitch Haniger and Austin Slater, with LaMonte Wade Jr., Heliot Ramos and Blake Sabol perhaps in the mix as well. The Giants are expected to be aggressive this winter, likely pursuing marquee free agents after missing out on players like Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter. They have been speculatively tied to outfielders like Cody Bellinger and successfully pursuing such a player would further crowd this picture.

That could perhaps lead to Conforto or someone else being shopped around in trades. Conforto, Yastrzemski, Wade and Sabol all hit from the left side, as does Bellinger. For a platoon-loving club like the Giants, perhaps that’s too many lefties for one outfield, but it also depends on how the dominos fall this winter. Clubs would likely have some level of interest in taking a flier on Conforto given the market conditions, but the valuations from them might fluctuate based on whether they believe he’s capable of returning to his pre-2021 form.

For the Giants, keeping Conforto’s salary on the books means they are projected to have a payroll of $147MM, per Roster Resource. They have had payrolls around $200MM many times in the past and their competitive balance tax number is currently pegged at $170MM. The base threshold is going to be $237MM in 2024, giving them plenty of room before the luxury tax would become a concern.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants To Exercise Club Option On Alex Cobb; Sean Manaea Opts Out Of Contract

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The Giants intend to exercise their $10MM club option on Alex Cobb’s services for the 2024 season, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link).  In another notable Giants pitching development, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports (via X) that Sean Manaea has elected to opt out of the final year of his contract, foregoing a $12.5MM salary to test free agency.

It was widely expected that Cobb’s option would be picked up, though a possible wrench was thrown into the mix with last week’s news that Cobb was undergoing hip surgery.  Though Cobb might not be able to return to a big league mound until May at the earliest, the Giants decided that the $8MM net decision (Cobb’s option contained a $2MM buyout) was still worth the investment.  Obviously the surgery was no surprise to the team, as Cobb has battled hip problems for much of the season and had his year officially ended by a 15-day injured list placement in late September.

Cobb signed with San Francisco in November 2021 on what is now a three-year, $28MM deal with the option exercised.  The results have been more than solid, as Cobb has a 3.80 ERA over 301 innings for the Giants, and he was even an All-Star this past season.  His strikeout rate, barrel rate, and total barrels declined sharply from 2022 to 2023, though Cobb also improved his walk rate and his fastball velocity from season to season.  Cobb also has a 59.4% grounder rate across the last two seasons, and a .327 BABIP indicates that his numbers might’ve been better if it wasn’t for the Giants’ subpar infield defense.

Injuries have also been a factor, as Cobb has been on the IL four separate times during his Giants tenure.  That said, Cobb still brought some durability to the rotation since he and Logan Webb were the only two starters San Francisco used in a normal starting role for much of the 2023 season.  The Giants addressed the other rotation spots in a number of ways, ranging for actual starts, piggyback-style pitcher usage, or an opener/bulk pitcher mix.

Manaea was one of the many Giants pitchers used in this fashion, as he started only 10 of his 37 appearances.  However, Manaea often found himself in a bulk pitcher or piggyback role, and he finished with 117 2/3 innings pitched while posting a 4.44 ERA and an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate.  It was a pretty decent course-correction for Manaea after some early struggles cost him a full rotation job, and it was a good bounce-back after a down year with the Padres in 2022.

Despite that down year, Manaea landed a two-year, $25MM deal with the Giants last winter, with the opt-out built into the contract so Manaea could quickly re-enter the market if he had a better platform year.  While not a hands-down breakout year on paper, the left-hander should be able to find another multi-year deal heading into his age-32 season, likely with a team that wants him in a full-time starting role.

Heading into 2024, San Francisco’s rotation consists of Webb, Cobb (when healthy), DeSclafani (if healthy), Stripling (who passed on his own opt-out opportunity), and Kyle Harrison, with Tristan Beck, Jakob Junis, and Keaton Winn on hand as depth options.  The Giants might well use at least one rotation spot for another mix-and-match assortment of pitchers, but the club is known to be looking for pitchers to bring more stability to the starting five.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is known to be on the Giants’ radar, and depending on how aggressive the team plans to be, any number of top free agent or trade options could be explored.

Ross Stripling Exercises Player Option With Giants

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Right-hander Ross Stripling has exercised his $12.5MM player option for next season, per Danny Emerman of KNBR.com. Stripling, 34 this month, will return to the Giants for the 2024 season rather than test the open market. The move is hardly a surprise, particularly given the fact that Stripling himself announced that he expected to exercise his player option back in September.

After signing with the Giants on a two-year, $25MM guarantee this past winter on the heels of a strong platform season in Toronto, Stripling struggled badly in San Francisco this year. The right-hander ultimately pitched just 89 innings with the Giants this year across 22 appearances, 11 of which were starts. In addition to posting his lowest full-season innings total since 2017, Stripling struggled to get results. His strikeout rate dipped from 20.7% in 2022 to just 18.4% this year, while his walk rate crept up from 3.7% to 4.2%.

While those rates both trended in the wrong direction, the marginal loss in K-BB doesn’t compare to the massive home run problem Stripling faced in 2023. Despite the fact that only Comerica Park in Detroit and PNC Park in San Francisco suppressed home runs at a higher clip than Stripling’s home stadium of Oracle Park, the right-hander saw a whopping 22% of his fly balls leave the yard for home runs this year. Not only was that figure a career high in a full season only matched by Stripling’s 22.8% figure in the shortened 2022 campaign, but it was the second highest rate in the majors this year, barely edged out by Phillies righty Christopher Sanchez’s 22.2% figure. With Stripling allowing more than two home runs per nine innings in 2023, it’s hardly a surprise that Stripling’s 5.36 ERA and 5.21 FIP were the worst figures of his career during a full season.

That being said, there’s reason for optimism that Stripling could improve upon his 2023 campaign next year. After all, he missed two months this year across two separate IL stints due to back issues, suggesting it’s possible he wasn’t fully healthy for much of the season. Better health alongside better fortune regarding the number of his fly balls that leave the yard for home runs in 2024 could drastically improve Stripling’s effectiveness next year; after all, even in this brutal season some advanced metrics looked upon Stripling favorably as demonstrated by his 3.98 xFIP (9% better than league average) and 4.13 SIERA.

The Giants are still waiting on option decisions from left-hander Sean Manaea and Michael Conforto, both of whom can also return to the open market rather than playing out the final year of two-year deals they inked with the club last winter. Meanwhile, San Francisco faces a decision of its own regard veteran right-hander Alex Cobb. Manaea and Conforto are both reportedly undecided on whether or not they’ll return to free agency this offseason, while Cobb’s option, once an obvious choice for San Francisco to exercise, could be muddied by a recent hip surgery that figures to keep him out of action through Opening Day 2024.

Report: MLB Grants Yariel Rodriguez Free Agency

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Right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez has officially been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, reports Francys Romero (X link). He is now free to sign with an MLB team.

Rodriguez became one of the more intriguing options on the pitching market when he was granted a release from his contract with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons a month ago. He has been conducting showcases for MLB clubs in the few weeks since but was barred from officially signing with a major league team until today. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll sign imminently, of course, but this removes the procedural hurdle he still needed to clear.

A native of Cuba, Rodriguez turns 27 in March. That’s atypically young for a free agent pitcher. He worked out of the bullpen over parts of three seasons with the Dragons. Rodriguez had a dominating showing in 2022, when he pitched to a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over 54 2/3 innings. He worked as a starter for his home country during the World Baseball Classic. Once that event concluded, Rodriguez decided not to report back to the Dragons. He sat out the remainder of the 2023 season — the team placed him on the restricted list — before his camp secured his release.

MLB teams figure to have differing evaluations on Rodriguez’s viability as a starter. He’s an intriguing arm with promising stuff and success at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported last month that the Rays were among 15 teams with scouts in attendance for one of Rodriguez’s recent workouts in the Dominican Republic. This afternoon, Romero listed (on X) 10 clubs that had shown interest in the hurler: the Astros, Yankees, Rangers, Pirates, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Phillies, White Sox, Mets and Giants.

Giants Outright Mark Mathias

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The Giants have sent Mark Mathias outright to Triple-A, according to his player page on MLB.com. Having been outrighted previously in his career, he is eligible to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, and at this point in the year, it’s hard to see why he wouldn’t do so. There was no previous announcement that Mathias had been designated for assignment or placed on outright waivers. He was on the 60-day injured list for the final six weeks of the season, so the move doesn’t free up a 40-man roster spot for San Francisco.

The 29-year-old spent the first three months of the year with the Pirates, bouncing back and forth between the majors and Triple-A. He was designated for assignment in late June and scooped up by the Mariners in early July, who stashed him at Triple-A for a month before trading him to the Giants at the deadline, along with AJ Pollock. Mathias played just five games for San Francisco, after which the utility player landed on the IL with a right shoulder strain. He would not play for the remainder of the season.

Overall, Mathias hit .226 with a .591 OPS in 27 games with the Pirates and Giants. In other words, he was unable to rediscover the success from his brief stint with the Rangers last season, when he hit five home runs in 24 games down the stretch, driving in 16 and posting an impressive 159 wRC+. Nevertheless, his strong performance at Triple-A for a second consecutive season (.813 OPS in 51 games) should earn him a minor league contract with a new club this winter, barring another setback with his shoulder.

Coaching Notes: Mallee, Rays, Giants, Cora

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The Cubs are promoting John Mallee back to the big league staff, as reported by Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. It’s currently unclear what role the long-time coach will serve. He was the team’s hitting coach from 2015-17, but that job is currently held down by Dustin Kelly, who helped several players thrive in his first year with the big league squad. 

According to Sharma and Mooney, the Cubs will “incorporate Mallee’s experience and expertise” in a new role, rather than replace anyone currently on the coaching staff. He was the hitting coach at Triple-A Iowa in 2023, and he earned “rave reviews” for his work at the minor league level. Evidently, the Cubs have decided he can have a greater impact with the MLB club, even in a less defined role.

In other coaching news from around the league…

  • In addition to hiring a new first base coach, the Rays could look to hire a couple of additional coaches to replace Jonathan Erlichman, the former process and analytics coach, and Dan DeMent, the former assistant hitting coach (per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Erlichman has taken on a new role with the team, while DeMent has parted ways with the organization after 13 years as a minor league coach and two with the big league club. The Rays have another assistant hitting coach, Brady North, and with Erlichman remaining in the organization, they don’t necessarily need to hire a direct replacement for either Erlichman or DeMent. As Topkin notes, the Rays could look to add a couple of coaches in new roles instead.
  • On Monday, Susan Slusser of the San Franciso Chronicle discussed the Giants’ director of pitching role, which has been vacant since the White Sox hired away Brian Bannister to be their senior pitching advisor. She suggests Bryan Price, a long-time pitching coach and former Reds manager, to fill the role. Price is currently employed as a senior advisor to the coaching staff in San Diego, but it’s not out of the question he could come over to San Francisco alongside Bob Melvin, Matt Williams, and Ryan Christenson. Price spent 14 years as a pitching coach for the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Phillies. He announced his retirement as a pitching coach after the 2020 season, but a director of pitching job could represent an intriguing new opportunity for the veteran coach.
  • Joey Cora, the Mets’ third base coach in 2022 and ’23, has drawn interest for several coaching positions around the league, per Andy Martino of SNY. Cora, the elder brother of Red Sox manager Alex Cora, has been coaching since 2004. His contract with the Mets expired at the end of October. In further Mets news, Martino notes that first base coach Wayne Kirby’s contract has also expired. Evidently, the team saw no reason to retain all of their coaches without a new manager in place.

MLBTR Podcast: Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Shohei Ohtani is expected to set records with his next deal. Do you think he is one of the first or last players to sign? (19:10)
  • Who are the Twins potential trading partners for Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco? (24:30)
  • Who do you think are free agent pitchers the Orioles could realistically sign that would excite die-hard fans? Do they have a shot at any of the NPB pitchers coming stateside? (28:00)

Check out our past episodes!

Alex Cobb To Undergo Hip Surgery

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Alex Cobb will undergo surgery on his left hip labrum tomorrow, the Giants announced to reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The surgery will also address the impingement issues that ended his 2023 season midway through September. The right-hander will need approximately six months to return to pitching, to say nothing of his readiness for the major leagues. That puts his earliest return at some point in May 2024.

The 36-year-old was a valuable contributor to the Giants’ rotation before his season came to an early end, making 28 starts with a 3.87 ERA. He pitched especially well in the first half, posting a 2.91 ERA through 16 starts and making the first All-Star Game of his 12-year career. Unfortunately, his performance was rather uneven in the second half; he threw a complete game gem on August 29, but he also failed to escape the fifth inning on three separate occasions. Presumably, the nagging issues in his hip were affecting his stuff down the stretch.

Cobb has a $10MM team option for next season, with a $2MM buyout. Before this latest update, it seemed like a no-brainer the Giants would pick up the option (Pavlovic notes they were indeed planning to do so), and it remains the most likely course of action. If Cobb returns in May and pitches like he has over his first two seasons with San Francisco, a net $8MM will be a small price for the Giants to pay.

Still, with Cobb on the shelf, the Giants’ need for starting pitching only intensifies. Logan Webb will be an anchor atop the rotation next season, but the team is lacking trustworthy options behind its ace. Alex Wood is a free agent. Sean Manaea, who pitched to a 4.44 ERA (but a 4.18 xERA and 3.83 SIERA) in 117 2/3 innings between the rotation and bullpen, can opt out of his contract after the World Series. Meanwhile, Ross Stripling has already said he doesn’t plan to exercise his opt-out clause, but that’s only because he pitched too poorly in 2023 to command a better deal on the open market. In 22 games (11 starts), the veteran righty posted a 5.36 ERA, a 5.58 xERA, and a 4.13 SIERA.

Anthony DeSclafani, 33, is under contract through next season. He made 19 appearances (18 starts) in 2023, pitching to a 4.88 ERA, a 5.16 xERA, and a 4.37 SIERA. On top of his mediocre results, he spent most of the second half on the injured list with a flexor strain, marking his second straight injury-plagued campaign. Barring a setback, he should be ready for spring training next year, but he hardly seems like a reliable option for a mid-rotation role.

The Giants also have some promising young arms, but none have proven themselves ready to play a major role in the big league rotation. Top prospect Kyle Harrison made his MLB debut in August, joining the starting staff for the final six weeks of the season. His 4.15 ERA was impressive for a 22-year-old rookie, but his 4.45 SIERA and 4.48 xERA suggest he still has plenty of room for improvement. Meanwhile, 25-year-old Keaton Winn struggled his way through five starts in his rookie season, posting a 6.04 ERA in 25 1/3 innings pitched. Tristan Beck could get a shot in the rotation, too, although he had success pitching out of the bullpen in 2023. Finally, prospects like Carson Whisenhunt, Landen Roupp, and Mason Black have yet to make their big league debuts.

Thus, the Giants should be active on the starting pitching market this winter. They have signed numerous starters to eight-figure deals over the past two offseasons, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they look to add multiple starters once again.

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