Giants’ Farhan Zaidi Discusses Pitching, Possible Further Major Acquisitions
With the Matt Chapman signing now official, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters (including NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic and the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser) on a Zoom call. In regards to the chance that more significant moves might still happen before Opening Day, Zaidi indicated that Chapman’s contract might mark the end of the Giants’ heavy lifting.
“I’ll say what I said last time we talked after we signed [Jorge] Soler — the offseason is really over as far as we’re concerned,” Zaidi said. “We’re more in in-season mode, which doesn’t mean you can’t make additions, but it’s a different dynamic because we’re really focused on the players that we have and how they’re all going to fit together.”
It was a little over two weeks ago that Zaidi also spoke with the media after Soler’s signing, when the PBO noted that “It’s a little bit more disruptive to add at this point. Anybody who’s a free agent, we’ve theoretically had three and a half months to figure out a deal and if it hasn’t happened yet, at some point organizationally, you just need to turn the page and focus on the players you have….At this point, the calendar makes any further additions unlikely.”
Of course, as Pavlovic observed, Chapman was then signed in the aftermath of those initial comments, so Zaidi’s statement today could and probably should be taken with some natural skepticism. Multiple reports surfaced yesterday that Blake Snell was still a target for San Francisco even in the aftermath of Chapman’s arrival, and Zaidi didn’t deny that talks had closed off on Snell or any other possible additions. “The easiest thing is to say we can’t rule it out,” Zaidi said. “We don’t have some planned sequence of moves here and don’t feel like anything is imminent there, but we’re going to continue to look for ways to improve the team.”
In the absence of any more newcomers, the Giants’ rotation continues to look like Logan Webb, converted reliever Jordan Hicks, and then a host of prospects with little to no Major League experience. The highly-touted Kyle Harrison (34 2/3 career big league innings) will be getting an extended look at a rotation job, Keaton Winn (42 1/3 career innings) projects as the fourth starter, and a whole host of pitchers could now get a shot at the fifth starter’s role since Tristan Beck will begin the season on the 60-day injured list.
Despite this lack of proven starting depth, Zaidi is excited to see what the in-house arms can do. “Our plan all along has been to give our young pitchers opportunities and to try to create a defense that would support them in their transition and that’s one of the reasons Matt was such a priority….We want to elevate our young pitchers. There’s uncertainty that comes from the fact that there’s a lack of familiarity. Young pitchers are definitionally not household names, but we think that the more they get a chance to prove themselves, you sort of have to take the leap with them at some point and this is something we’ve been planning for a couple of years, to get younger in our rotation and give these guys the opportunity to win jobs.”
Beyond just the prospects, Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb are expected to bolster the rotation when the two veterans return from the injured list. Ray’s recovery from Tommy John surgery will keep him out until at least midseason, and Cobb underwent hip surgery at the end of October and was given an estimated return timeline of roughly six months.
Cobb has already been working out in spring camp, and it seems as though the right-hander is on track to at least meet if not better that timeline. Zaidi said that Cobb is expected back “relatively soon in the year,” and Pavlovic noted that the Giants haven’t put Cobb on the 60-day injured list, which would rule him out until the end of May.
Giants Sign Matt Chapman
MARCH 3: The Giants officially announced Chapman’s signing and the terms, with the additional detail that the contract includes a mutual option covering the 2027 season.
Chapman will receive a $2MM signing bonus and a $16MM salary in 2024, plus a $2MM buyout on the $17MM player option for 2025. If the third baseman remains in his contract through the 2025 season, he’ll have an $18MM player option for 2026 with a $3MM buyout attached. Should he remain in his contract through those three seasons, Chapman and the Giants will share a $20MM mutual option for the 2027 season, with a $1MM buyout if either party declines their side of the option.
MARCH 1: Matt Chapman is headed back to the Bay Area. The four-time Gold Glove winner has reportedly agreed to terms with the Giants on a three-year, $54MM guarantee. The Boras Corporation client can opt out after each of the next two seasons.
He’ll make $20MM this season, followed by successive $18MM and $16MM player options. The contract has an $18MM average annual value for competitive balance tax purposes. San Francisco will need to make a 40-man roster move once the deal is finalized.
Chapman, 31 next month, reunites with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin. He’s familiar with both from his early days with the A’s. Chapman was a first-round pick by Oakland in 2014 and debuted three years later. He stepped in as one of the sport’s best all-around players.
The Cal State Fullerton product put up a .255/.336/.503 batting line through his first three and a half seasons. He paired that with the best third base defense in the American League. Chapman finished among the top 10 in AL MVP balloting in 2018 and ’19, securing Gold Glove honors in both years.
Chapman’s 2020 season was cut short by a labrum tear in his right hip. He underwent surgery that September, shutting him down for the year. While it wasn’t clear at the time, that injury has proven to be something of a turning point in his career. His offensive production hasn’t been the same since he made his return.
The right-handed hitter stumbled to a career-worst .210/.314/.403 line in 2021. The A’s dealt him to the Blue Jays the following offseason. Chapman’s offensive production ticked up slightly in Toronto, but he hasn’t found his 2018-19 form outside of a scorching April last year.
After a .229/.324/.433 showing in 2022, Chapman entered his platform season looking to reestablish himself as a middle-of-the-order force. He began the year as the hottest hitter on the planet. Chapman mashed at a .384/.465/.687 clip through the end of April. While he’d cut his strikeout rate to a 22.8% mark in the season’s first month, his whiffs spiked as the summer approached. A dismal May kicked off what proved to be a disappointing finish to his Jays tenure.
Over his final 467 plate appearances, Chapman hit .205/.298/.361 with a strikeout rate near 30%. By the second half, he was often hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. The Jays briefly sent him to the injured list in late August for a sprain of the middle finger on his right hand. It’s possible that had an adverse effect on his offense, but the biggest concern is that he didn’t sustain the strides in contact rate he had seemed to make early on.
That presented a tough evaluation for teams as he hit the open market for the first time. Even if he’s no longer an MVP-caliber player, Chapman is still an above-average regular. He has drawn walks in more than 10% of his plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. He connected on 27 homers in both 2021 and ’22. That dipped to 17 longballs a year ago, yet that’s not a reflection of a drop in his contact quality.
Chapman actually hit the ball harder than ever last season, averaging 93.5 MPH in exit velocity. He made hard contact (defined as 95+ MPH) on 56.4% of batted balls. That was the highest rate for any qualified hitter in the majors, narrowly ahead of impact bats like former teammate Matt Olson, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., Rafael Devers and Shohei Ohtani.
He remains an asset on the other side of the ball. Chapman’s defensive grades aren’t quite as eye-popping as they were early in his career, but he’s still a plus at third base. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have rated him as an above-average defender in every season of his career. That includes an estimated three runs better than par by Statcast and an excellent +12 mark from DRS over more than 1200 innings last season.
Infield defense was an issue for the Giants, particularly on the left side. San Francisco led longtime shortstop Brandon Crawford walk in free agency. They’re set to turn that position to 22-year-old Marco Luciano. Incumbent third baseman J.D. Davis drew mixed reviews from defensive metrics last season. There’s no question that Chapman will be an upgrade on that side of the ball. While there had been some speculation the Giants could consider kicking Chapman up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that he’ll stick at the hot corner at Oracle Park.
San Francisco has targeted Chapman throughout the offseason, having been tied to him as early as the middle of November. They were content to wait out the market as he was one of a handful of top free agents who lingered well into Spring Training.
A $54MM guarantee certainly isn’t what his camp had in mind at the beginning of the offseason. Chapman had reportedly declined a 10-year, $150MM extension offer from the A’s back in 2019. He also reportedly passed on an offer from Toronto that would’ve topped $100MM at some point before he got to free agency. Whatever asking price he had set at the beginning of the winter wasn’t met. As with fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger, Chapman turned to a short-term deal that gives him the chance to get back to the market next offseason instead.
He was one of seven players to receive and decline a qualifying offer in November. The QO would have been valued at $20.325MM, a hair above what he now stands to make next season. This contract structure is certainly preferable to taking the qualifying offer — there’s added security built in via the player options in case he struggles or suffers an injury — but the end result could be similar. The likeliest outcome is that he collects a $20MM salary in 2024 and retests the market next winter.
It remains to be seen if it would treat him more kindly the next time around. He’d be entering his age-32 season with a profile that is heavily dependent on defense. Chapman won’t be eligible for another qualifying offer — players can’t receive that more than once in their careers, per the CBA — but he’s unlikely to be the clear top free agent at the position, as he was this winter. Alex Bregman headlines next year’s third base class, which will also include Davis.
The Giants surrender their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft (#51 overall) and $500K in international signing bonus space to add a player who had declined the QO. The Jays were one of eight teams that paid the luxury tax last season, so their compensation is minimal. They’ll get an extra draft choice after the fourth round, roughly 136th overall.
It’s a bigger penalty for the Giants than it is compensation for Toronto. It’s one the Giants are nevertheless happy to pay to get Chapman at a price well below what they could have expected coming into the offseason. (MLBTR predicted he’d receive six-year, $150MM pact at the start of the winter.) The contract pushes their 2024 player payroll to roughly $183MM, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $231MM in luxury tax obligations, keeping them $6MM shy of next year’s threshold.
If they want to avoid the CBT, that wouldn’t leave a ton of room for in-season acquisitions. It’s possible they’re comfortable exceeding the threshold for the first time since 2017. San Francisco has been tied to Blake Snell (and to a much lesser extent) Jordan Montgomery. They’re still in clear need of rotation help, particularly after expected #5 starter Tristan Beck underwent surgery on Friday to address an aneurysm.
Forfeiting a draft choice to sign Chapman to a contract that allows him to opt out after one season is the clearest win-now move of San Francisco’s offseason. They’ve also brought in Jung Hoo Lee to take center field, Jorge Soler at designated hitter, and signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year pact to transition to the rotation. Revamping the lineup to that extent without adding more certainty behind Logan Webb, Hicks, and rookie Kyle Harrison seems unlikely.
Davis is set for a $6.9MM salary in his final season of arbitration and just lost his spot in the starting lineup. Soler and Wilmer Flores are ahead of him as right-handed hitters who’ll factor in at DH at first base, respectively. Flipping Davis to a team that needs third base help before Opening Day could clear spending room for the Giants and seems the best outcome for him personally. There’s very likely more to come at Oracle Park in the next three weeks.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the agreement, opt-outs, and salary breakdown. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Giants Place Tristan Beck On 60-Day Injured List
TODAY: The Giants placed Beck on the 60-day injured list, to create 40-man roster space for the team’s acquisition of Matt Chapman.
MARCH 1: Giants right-hander Tristan Beck told reporters, including Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic, that he will undergo vascular surgery on Monday at Stanford to address the aneurysm in his upper right arm. He won’t have a timetable for his return until after going under the knife.
Earlier this week, it was reported that Beck was dealing with some discomfort in his throwing arm, which was eventually diagnosed as an aneurysm. It seems a decision has been made that surgical intervention is necessary. Although the timetable won’t be clear until next week when the procedure has been completed, this further creates uncertainty in the San Francisco rotation, which already stood out as a weak part of the roster.
Right-hander Alex Cobb underwent hip surgery last year and will begin the season on the injured list. Trade acquisition Robbie Ray is recovering from UCL/flexor tendon surgery and won’t be back until the All-Star break at the earliest.
The Giants have long known about both of those situations but nonetheless came into camp with a rotation consisting of Logan Webb and a series of unknowns. Jordan Hicks will be looking to move from a relief role to a starting role, something he has never done before. Webb and Hicks were likely to be joined by youngsters like Kyle Harrison, Keaton Winn and Beck. All three of those guys have shown promise but none of that trio has more than 85 innings in the bigs.
For a club planning to contend, that’s a lot of rotation uncertainty, which has become more questionable in recent weeks. Winn was dealing with some elbow soreness last week and although he could still be ready for Opening Day, there’s at least a bit of murkiness there. The latest developments with Beck only compound the concerns around the club’s rotation depth.
If the Giants decide they need to add to this group, there are still options available in free agency. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still out there and the Giants have reportedly expressed interest in both, though a deal has clearly not come together to this point. The club has generally avoided spending on pitching, with the four-year deal for Hicks being the longest since Farhan Zaidi became president of baseball operations in November of 2018, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. The $44MM guarantee for Hicks also matches Carlos Rodón‘s two-year deal for the largest guarantee the club has given a pitcher in that time. If the club wants to avoid a huge deal for Snell or Montgomery, they could also pivot to someone more affordable like Michael Lorenzen, Eric Lauer or Jake Odorizzi.
If they don’t look to external additions, then the internal candidates to step up and take a rotation job would include Sean Hjelle, Kai-Wei Teng, Daulton Jefferies and Spencer Howard. Hjelle had an ERA of 6.00 in Triple-A last year and a mark of 6.52 working out of the big league bullpen. Teng has yet to make his major league debut. Jefferies has lost most of the past two years due to undergoing both thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in June of 2022 and then Tommy John surgery that September. Howard has a 7.20 ERA in his major league career and has a 5.01 ERA in the minors over the past two years.
Giants Still Interested In Blake Snell
The Giants made another major addition yesterday with the signing of Matt Chapman, and might not yet be done with their March shopping. Both Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area report that Blake Snell remains a target for the club, as the Giants continue to have a pressing need in the rotation.
Chapman’s deal contains two opt-out clauses, but in its full form is a three-year, $54MM guarantee. That puts San Francisco’s payroll at just over $183MM (as per RosterResource’s projections) and, more importantly, its luxury tax figure at roughly $230.5MM — only slightly below the $237MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Even if Snell were to also accept a shorter-term contract laden with opt-outs, his salary would obviously send the Giants sailing over that first tax tier and closer to the secondary tier of $257MM.
The Giants haven’t exceeded the CBT line since 2017, yet given the team’s high-profile bids for star free agents (i.e. Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto) in recent years, the tax threshold is hardly viewed as a barrier to spending. If Snell and his representatives at the Boras Corporation are open to a shorter-term deal deal akin to Chapman’s, the idea that San Francisco could sign both players for perhaps something close to the total number projected for just one of the duo at the start of the offseason would count as a valuable bargain, and seemingly well worth what might be a temporary tax hit. Michael Conforto‘s contract is off the books after next season, Chapman could opt out, and Snell could opt out as well in this scenario.
Signing Snell would come at an additional cost to the Giants than just money, since both Snell and Chapman rejected qualifying offers. Signing Chapman cost San Francisco its second-highest pick (the 51st overall selection) in the 2024 draft as well as $500K in international signing pool money, and signing Snell would cost the Giants another $500K from their pool, plus their third-highest pick in the upcoming draft. While every draft pick is valued, giving up a second pick might again be seen as an acceptable loss for the Giants if it means landing Snell, either at a relative discount price or simply because the team is sorely in need of pitching help.
The rotation appeared to be a priority heading into the offseason, yet the Giants addressed the situation in a somewhat uncertain fashion by signing Jordan Hicks and acquiring Robbie Ray from the Mariners. Hicks has worked primarily as a reliever over his Major League career, and Ray will be out until around midseason as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery. Since Alex Cobb will be sidelined until May at the earliest due to his own recovery from hip surgery, the Giants were seemingly prepared to roll with a rotation of ace Logan Webb, Hicks, and a group of rookies headlined by star prospect Kyle Harrison until Cobb and Ray were ready to return.
However, those plans took a hit with yesterday’s news that Tristan Beck will be undergoing surgery to correct an aneurysm in his upper right arm. Keaton Winn looks to be on track for Opening Day after a bout of nerve-related elbow discomfort, but these injuries have only highlighted the unsteady nature of San Francisco’s pitching plans. An argument can clearly be made that adding another starter would greatly help the situation, whether more of a stopgap veteran like Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger, or a front-of-the-rotation type like Jordan Montgomery or Snell.
Even though Snell won his second career Cy Young Award in 2023, questions have persisted about Snell’s viability as a long-term investment. He has averaged just over 124 innings per season during his eight years in the big leagues, and he has pitched into the eighth inning in only five of his 191 career starts. Snell has also been prone to giving up a lot of hard contact at times, and his walk rates have been decidedly below average for his entire career.
This doesn’t seem to be the profile that would match Farhan Zaidi’s preferred model for pitching contracts, as the Giants president of baseball operations has long been hesitant about signing pitchers to particularly lengthy commitments. A shorter-term deal with opt-outs might solve that issue, and Snell is reportedly open to considering such offers, though it remains to be seen if there might still be enough late interest for the left-hander to score a more lucrative deal. The Yankees and Angels have been linked to Snell’s market, and other suitors could potentially emerge if another injury situation develops during Spring Training.
Giants Notes: Davis, Pederson, Ahmed
San Francisco’s reported agreement with third baseman Matt Chapman last night added an elite defender and quality hitter to a lineup that’s already added Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler this winter as the Giants look to bolster their offense after posting a 93 wRC+ as a team last year, which was a bottom-ten figure in the majors. With that being said, the deal seemingly leaves another veteran bat without a clear home in J.D. Davis.
Davis, 31 next month, is set to hit free agency after the 2024 campaign and seems unlikely to find a regular role in San Francisco this season with Soler at DH, Chapman at the hot corner, and LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores expected to handle first base. That reality could spur the Giants to make a trade in the near future, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. The veteran infielder hit a roughly league average .248/.325/.413 in 144 games with the Giants last year, but had established himself as a well-above average bat in the four years prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing .276/.363/.457 with a 127 wRC+ during that time. That upside could make Davis an attractive target for a team lacking in certainty at the infield corners, such as the Cubs, Mariners, or Brewers, potentially allowing the club to shed his $6.9MM salary and free up additional payroll space for a possible pursuit of southpaw Blake Snell.
For Davis’s part, he told reporters (including Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle) that the club’s decision to sign Chapman was “definitely surprising,” adding that he hadn’t communicated with the front office regarding the decision of his future to this point before referencing the club’s handling of veteran shortstop Brandon Crawford during his final year with the club and free agency this winter.
“I didn’t get a phone call, Brandon Crawford didn’t get a phone call,” Davis said, as relayed by Rubin. “It is what it is. It’s part of the business. I know every management is different in how they handle things and that’s just one of the characteristics you just have to live with.”
More from around San Francisco…
- While Crawford recently expressed disappointment regarding how his tenure in San Francisco ended, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that no such acrimony exists between the club and slugger Joc Pederson, who departed the club to sign with the Diamondbacks earlier this winter. While Pederson told Slusser that he retains a strong relationship with both president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and that the Giants even made him an offer this winter, though he added that Arizona “expressed more interest” and presented him with a stronger offer. Pederson spent the past two seasons playing for San Francisco, slashing a strong .255/.351/.470 in 255 games with the club across the two campaigns.
- Shortstop Nick Ahmed recently spoke to reported, including The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly, regarding his decision to sign with the Giants on a non-roster deal this spring. The two-time Gold Glove award winner had spent parts of ten seasons with the Diamondbacks prior to becoming a free agent for the first time in his career back in September, and the soon to be 34-year-old veteran indicated that while he had some conversations with the Cardinals this winter before they signed Crawford to a one-year deal last month. With that being said, Ahmed indicated that he was enticed to sign in San Francisco when Zaidi and manager Bob Melvin indicated to him that he would have the opportunity the everyday job at shortstop with the club this spring. A career .234/.288/.376 hitter, Ahmed has made up for a lack of offensive production throughout his career with elite defensive numbers and figures to battle with youngsters Marco Luciano and Casey Schmitt for the shortstop job throughout the final month of Spring Training.
Brandon Crawford Discusses Departure From Giants
Veteran shortstop Brandon Crawford recently signed with the Cardinals on a one-year, $2MM deal, officially bringing to a close his 13-season tenure at shortstop for the Giants in the majors as well as his sixteen years as a member of the organization. Crawford recently spoke to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic regarding the first foray into free agency of his career and his departure from San Francisco. In doing so, he emphasized that returning to the Giants was a priority for him, but that the sentiment was not reciprocated by San Francisco brass.
“The bottom line is I was not wanted back by the one person whose (opinion) matters,” Crawford told Baggarly in reference to president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Crawford went on to note that his camp gave the Giants an opportunity to counter after receiving the offer of a big league deal from the Cardinals last month, though San Francisco offered the veteran only a non-roster deal with an invitation to Spring Training.
2023 was a difficult season for the veteran, as he slashed just .194/.273/.314 in 320 trips to the plate while battling knee, hamstring, calf, and forearm issues throughout the season. Crawford’s defense, once universally regarded as elite, also began to slip somewhat last season. While Statcast‘s Outs Above Average placed him in the 90th percentile of qualified fielders with a +6 figure, Fielding Bible‘s Defensive Runs Saved considered him to be among the worst-fielding shortstops in the majors last year with -14 runs. All of Crawford’s numbers were a far cry from the elite production he posted during his 2021 campaign, when he slashed an excellent .298/.373/.522 at the plate while posting +16 OAA and +6 DRS in the field.
Even as Crawford’s production last year certainly left something to be desired, it’s still somewhat surprising that the Giants seemingly had minimal interest in retaining a face of the franchise with three All-Star appearances and two World Series titles with the club under his belt. After all, he’s just two seasons removed from that aforementioned dominant season that saw him earn his fourth career Gold Glove award while finishing fourth in NL MVP voting. While Crawford’s age-37 season is unlikely to see the veteran outproduce the club’s young, internal options at short such as Marco Luciano and Casey Schmitt, the veteran indicated to Baggarly that he made clear in a meeting with Zaidi back in November that he would accept a bench role to remain in San Francisco while mentoring the aforementioned young players.
Zaidi also commented on the situation to Baggarly, noting that while Crawford has “been an important member of this team and a real leader in the clubhouse” and stated his willingness to accept a smaller role with the club in 2024, he had concerns that Crawford’s presence would put additional pressure on the club’s young players to perform and potentially hinder their development.
“Having the greatest shortstop in franchise history on the bench … it was just going to create a dynamic where it was going to be harder for our young players to play with a margin of error,” Zaidi told Baggarly.
In addition, Zaidi indicated that Crawford, who had never appeared in the majors at a position other than shortstop until working a single inning on the mound last year, may not have been able to provide the club with the positional versatility necessary to secure a spot on the club’s bench. While the club seemingly intended to move Crawford off shortstop last season should their now-infamous failed deal with Carlos Correa have been finalized, Zaidi suggested the club was hoping to fill out its bench with a player both capable of playing the infield and the outfield as well as a potential threat on the basepaths.
Crawford has never played the outfield at any professional level and has just 47 stolen bases for his career, with his only 10-steal season coming during his career season back in 2021. Given those limitations, it seems the Giants preferred to go with one of the club’s internal bench options rather than commit to Crawford on a big league deal. In conversation with Baggarly, Zaidi pointed to Tyler Fitzgerald as one player already in the organization who fits the versatile role the club is hoping to fill, with Otto Lopez and Brett Wisely among other speculative options already on the club’s 40-man roster.
Giants’ Tristan Beck Diagnosed With Aneurysm In Upper Arm
Feb. 29: The Giants announced this morning that Beck has been diagnosed with an aneurysm in his upper arm. He’s currently weighing his treatment options. The team will likely have more information in the coming days.
There’s no firm timetable on how long Beck might be sidelined, but manager Bob Melvin told reporters that he won’t be on the Opening Day roster (X link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). The Giants appear to be anticipating a fairly lengthy absence, though Melvin did not rule out the possibility that Beck could pitch for them at some point this season.
Feb. 27: Giants right-hander Tristan Beck has left the team’s spring complex and is traveling back to San Francisco to undergo testing after experiencing discomfort in his right hand, the team announced to reporters (X link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The team will provide further updates in the coming days.
Beck, 27, becomes the second Giants starter to incur an injury of some sort in camp. Fellow righty Keaton Winn has been slowed by a nerve issue in his pitching elbow. He resumed throwing Sunday but is at least a week behind the rest of the group. That’s good news, but early injury troubles for the Giants’ presumptive fourth and fifth starters is nevertheless unsettling — particularly given the patchwork nature of the starting staff behind ace Logan Webb.
The Giants are relying on Winn, Beck, top prospect Kyle Harrison and reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks to shoulder the bulk of the workload in the rotation. In terms of proven big league starters, it’s among the thinnest rotations in the game. Veterans Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray will eventually join that group, but both will very likely open the season on the injured list. Ray will be sidelined into the season’s second half as he recovers from last May’s Tommy John surgery. Cobb is on the mend from October hip surgery. A precise return date isn’t clear, but Pavlovic suggested a couple weeks back that Cobb was hoping to be cleared to face hitters by the end of spring training. That trajectory would likely sideline him into May, at the very least.
Beck came to the Giants by way of the 2019 trade that shipped former closer Mark Melancon to Atlanta. The former fourth-round pick made his MLB debut in 2023, pitching 85 innings of 3.92 ERA ball with a below-average 19.2% strikeout rate but a strong 5.9% walk rate. Most of that work came as a multi-inning reliever, however. Beck appeared in 33 games for San Francisco but made just three starts. He completed five innings only three times all season — twice in long relief and once in a start that marked his final appearance of the year.
Another injury scare for a Giants starter will only further spark speculation about the possibility of the Giants adding to the rotation. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has downplayed the potential for any notable acquisitions following the team’s signing of Jorge Soler, but the Giants remain one of the most obvious fits for high-profile free agents like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery — both in terms of actual roster need and from a payroll vantage point. The team’s projected $164MM Opening Day payroll (via Roster Resource) is more than $36MM south of the franchise-record $200.5MM mark set back in 2018, and the Giants are also about $24MM shy of the luxury-tax threshold.
If the Giants are strictly averse to shelling out the requisite years and dollars needed to bring in Snell or Montgomery, there are still alternatives on the free agent market. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger remain unsigned, as do rebound candidates like Eric Lauer, Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard (to name a few).
Giants Remain Involved On Snell, Chapman
The Giants continue to explore the markets for Blake Snell and Matt Chapman as March draws near, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. One source tells Slusser there’s roughly a 50-50 chance that San Francisco comes away with one of those players.
Snell would address the bigger need, at least in the short term. San Francisco has a patchwork rotation behind Cy Young runner-up Logan Webb. The Giants signed longtime reliever Jordan Hicks to a four-year deal with the promise of a rotation job. Hicks’ personal high in innings at the MLB level is 77 2/3 from his 2018 rookie season. He hasn’t reached the 70-inning mark since then.
The options beyond Hicks are even less established. Kyle Harrison is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects, but he has seven MLB games under his belt. The southpaw averaged fewer than four innings per appearance over 20 Triple-A starts a year ago. That was partially to keep his workload in check but also reflected his inefficiency. Harrison struck out an excellent 35.6% of Triple-A opponents but walked upwards of 16% of batters faced.
Webb, Hicks and Harrison are the three locks for the Opening Day staff. Alex Cobb will begin the year on the injured list as he works back from hip surgery. Robbie Ray won’t be ready until around the All-Star Break at the earliest during his rehab from last year’s Tommy John procedure. Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck entered camp with the presumed edge on the fourth and fifth rotation spots. They’ve each been set back by injury during exhibition play. Winn was delayed by elbow soreness, although he maintained over the weekend he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Beck just left the team to undergo testing after experiencing discomfort in his right hand.
A starting five of Webb, Hicks, Harrison, Winn and Beck is already not ideal for a team that hopes to compete for a playoff spot. Losing either Winn or Beck would require dipping further into depth options like Sean Hjelle, Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng or a non-roster invitee like Daulton Jefferies or Tommy Romero.
While Snell hasn’t been a consistent source of volume throughout his career, he’s coming off his second 180-inning season. He’d upgrade any rotation and would afford the Giants the luxury of plugging in the top two finishers in last year’s NL Cy Young voting. There’d still be some questions about the staff’s durability, but a top three of Webb, Snell and Harrison would have one of the highest ceilings in the league.
Of course, the question is whether they’ll line up on an agreeable price point. No team has yet met Snell’s ask. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that the southpaw may be open to considering a short-term offer that allows him to opt out and retest free agency. Fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger took that route on a three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs over the weekend. It’s hard to envision Snell turning in a better platform season than the one he had in 2023, though. He allowed only 2.25 earned runs per nine over the course of the year and turned in a 1.23 mark from June onward.
The Yankees have reportedly had an offer out to Snell for weeks. Heyman reported this morning that his camp spoke with New York brass again yesterday but didn’t have any kind of breakthrough. The Angels have also been loosely linked to Snell.
Chapman, on the other hand, doesn’t play a position of strict need. The Giants have a solid third baseman in J.D. Davis. Were they to land Chapman, they’d likely flip Davis to a team with a more pressing desire for help at the hot corner. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new manager Bob Melvin both have ties to Chapman from their days with the A’s. He’d markedly upgrade the infield defense, although it’s debatable whether he’s enough of an offensive improvement on Davis to make that move worthwhile.
Zaidi recently suggested the team was unlikely to make any more free agent splashes this offseason. Perhaps that was simply public posturing or the recent health uncertainty surrounding Winn and Beck could change the calculus. In any case, San Francisco should have payroll flexibility. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $164MM. They’re at roughly $213MM in luxury tax obligations. That puts them about $24MM shy of both the base CBT threshold and last year’s Opening Day payroll.
Signing Snell, in particular, would likely push them into luxury tax territory — especially if they added him on a higher-AAV deal to avoid a lengthy commitment. It’d be easier to fit Chapman onto the ledger without going into CBT range, since they’d then have reason to shed Davis’ $6.9MM salary in trade.
The fees for surpassing the luxury tax would be relatively modest if they edged past $237MM. They’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM. The Giants last paid the CBT in 2017. Snell and Chapman each declined the qualifying offer; signing either player would cost the Giants their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K in international bonus pool space.
Giants Sign Nick Ahmed To Minor League Deal
The Giants announced Monday that they’ve signed veteran infielder Nick Ahmed to a minor league deal and invited him to spring training. Ahmed, a client of Excel Sports Management, has long been a division rival of the Giants, spending his entire big league career with the D-backs until now.
San Francisco has reportedly been mulling a variety of veteran options at shortstop. Ahmed will add a glove-first option to their spring group. He’ll compete with prospect Marco Luciano, 25-year-old Casey Schmitt and 26-year-old Tyler Fitzgerald for playing time at that position. Ahmed was recently linked to the Cardinals as well, where he’d also have been competing with a young prospect (Masyn Winn) for playing time, and the Marlins before that. It’s not clear whether St. Louis or Miami ever made an offer, but that’s largely moot now that Ahmed has signed on with the Giants.
The past two seasons have been a struggle for Ahmed, a two-time Gold Glove winner at shortstop. Shoulder surgery in 2022 limited him to just 17 games, and his already modest offensive production cratered upon returning in 2023. Ahmed hit just .212/.257/.303 last year, losing playing time to Geraldo Perdomo. In September, the Diamondbacks designated Ahmed for assignment and released him. It was an unceremonious end to a 10-season tenure as Arizona’s primary shortstop, but the veteran’s dwindling role and production prompted the organization to move on.
In the five seasons prior to his shoulder surgery, Ahmed had still been below-average at the plate, but not nearly to the extent he was in ’23. From 2017-21, Ahmed tallied 2057 plate appearances and batted .242/.300/.402 (83 wRC+). As is to be expected from a right-handed hitter, he’s been far better against lefties in his career, slashing .257/.309/.430 (93 wRC+).
Ahmed offsets his lackluster offensive output by playing defense as well as virtually any player in the sport. From ’17-’21, Ahmed’s 58 Defensive Runs Saved ranked fifth among all big leaguers, regardless of position. His 87 Outs Above Average, per Statcast, tied him with Francisco Lindor for the most of any player — shortstop or otherwise — in the big leagues.
Whether Ahmed can return to those heights in the field remains to be seen, though last year’s showing in a small sample was promising. He only logged 488 innings in the field but still tallied 1 DRS, 6 OAA and a 1.6 Ultimate Zone Rating. The typically surehanded Ahmed did make an uncharacteristic eight errors in that small sample, but his range remained excellent.
Ahmed will have some youthful competition as he looks to grab a roster spot. The 22-year-old Luciano currently ranks 56th on Baseball America’s Top 100 list. He didn’t hit much in a tiny sample of 45 plate appearances during last summer’s MLB debut, however, and also struggled in Triple-A following a promotion from Double-A (where he’d struck out in 29.8% of his plate appearances). Questions about his glovework and contact profile could lead Luciano to Triple-A to begin the season.
Both Schmitt and Fitzgerald made their MLB debuts last season as well. Schmitt is a plus defender at multiple infield positions but hit just .206/.255/.324 in 277 trips to the plate during last year’s debut effort. His .300/.346/.435 slash in Triple-A was a far sight better, but he’s not yet proven himself against MLB pitching. Fitzgerald didn’t play shortstop at all in the majors last season, but that’s been his primary spot in the minors. He went just 7-for-32 in 34 MLB plate appearances but connected on a pair of homers and doubles alike. Fitzgerald popped 20 homers and swiped 29 bags in Triple-A, but scouts see him as more of a utilityman than an everyday option at shortstop, in part for defensive reasons.
NL West Notes: Walker, D’Backs, Winn, Matsui, Amador, Rockies
There hasn’t been “too much” talk between Christian Walker‘s representatives and the Diamondbacks about a contract extension, though the first baseman told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he “loves” playing for the team. However, Walker is also interested in the idea of testing free agency next winter after the humble beginnings of his career, as he bounced around to multiple teams and didn’t become a real big league regular until 2019, his third season in Arizona. “To look back, it’s a sense of accomplishment. Like, wow, we’ve created this leverage; it’s a thing now,” Walker said. “We have the ball in our court. It hasn’t always felt that way….I think it’s motivating to keep wanting to head in that direction.”
Walker will be 34 on Opening Day 2025, so hitting the market at something of an advanced age is likely to limit his chances at an overly lengthy contract. He is a first base-only player, yet with the benefit of being baseball’s best defensive first baseman, as the winner of the last two Fielding Bible Awards and Gold Gloves at the position. To go along with his superb glove, Walker has also hit .253/.332/.463 with 115 homers over 2619 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season, translating to a 112 wRC+. (Over the last two seasons in particular, Walker has 69 homers and a 112 wRC+.)
It will be interesting to see if the D’Backs could work out a way to re-sign Walker, as the team is projected for a club record $143MM payroll heading into 2024, but a decent chunk of money is coming off the books next offseason. This could provide an opening for a reunion between the D’Backs and the underrated first baseman, if an extension isn’t reached before Walker even gets to free agency.
More from around the NL West…
- Keaton Winn‘s sore right elbow has “calmed down” after a bout of nerve irritation, the Giants rookie told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Winn didn’t need a cortisone shot and has been cleared to start throwing again, so he believes he’ll have plenty of time to ramp up in time for Opening Day. The 26-year-old right-hander made his MLB debut in 2023, and is one of several young starters the Giants are counting on through at least the early part of the season before Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray are slated to return from the injured list.
- Newly-signed Padres reliever Yuki Matsui is day-to-day with back spasms, manager Mike Shildt told reporters from 97.3 The Fan (X link) and other media outlets. The problem doesn’t appear to be too serious, but Shildt said the team is just taking a precautionary measure this early in camp. After an outstanding career in Japan, Matsui made the jump to the majors this winter, signing with the Padres to an interestingly structured five-year deal that will pay the left-hander $28MM in guaranteed money.
- Top Rockies prospect Adael Amador had an injury-shortened 2023 season and has only played 10 games at the Double-A level, so it might still be a while before we see Amador in the Show. However, his development this season will not only hasten his own potential path to the majors, but if Amador plays well, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post feels it might make the Rox more open to trading Brendan Rodgers to clear room at second base. It wasn’t long ago that Rodgers was also seen as something of a building block in Colorado, though Rodgers played in only 46 games last season due to shoulder surgery and didn’t hit well after returning to action. Since Rodgers is only under team control through the 2025 season, there has been some sense that Amador is already viewed as the long-term replacement, and the Rockies have explored dealing Rodgers in the past. Of course, this all might hinge on how well Rodgers plays in the early part of the 2024 campaign and whether or not he can rebuild his stock either as a trade chip or as part of Colorado’s future plans.