MLBTR Podcast: Injured Pitchers, Brayan Bello’s Extension, Mookie At Shortstop And J.D. Davis
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Injuries to pitchers such as Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Lucas Giolito of the Red Sox and the potential ripple effects (1:45)
- Red Sox sign Brayan Bello to an extension (7:10)
- Dodgers moving Mookie Betts to shortstop (10:40)
- Giants release J.D. Davis (16:10)
- Noelvi Marté of the Reds suspended for PEDs (22:50)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Who had the worst offseason and why is it the Angels? (25:15)
- Fact or Fiction? The Red Sox are going to trade Masataka Yoshida. (28:50)
- Considering the amount of effort the Tigers front office has put into fielding a major league team in the past 10 years, should Tiger fans feel slighted? “They can wait” seems to be the attitude. Should Tiger fans just stop buying Little Caesars pizza and encourage their friends to buy their pizzas elsewhere? I am sure franchise owners enjoy being associated with a cheap loser. (31:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Giants Sign Matt Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Blake Snell And Jordan Montgomery Remain – listen here
- How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
- Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Zaidi, Hannaford Discuss J.D. Davis Release
J.D. Davis‘ time with the Giants ended in unceremonious fashion when the team placed him on release waivers yesterday. He’ll go unclaimed and become a free agent, at which point his camp will look for other opportunities before Opening Day.
It’s a financially motivated move for the Giants, who bumped Davis from the starting lineup when they signed Matt Chapman. Their incumbent third baseman had previously prevailed in an arbitration hearing and was slated for a $6.9MM salary. Barring a surprising successful grievance on Davis’ behalf, the release means he’ll receive a fraction of that from San Francisco. The collective bargaining agreement provides that arbitration-eligible players released more than 15 days before the start of the season “for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability” are entitled to 30 days termination pay — slightly more than $1.1MM, in Davis’ case.
The most recent CBA introduced a new provision that arb-eligible players who settle without a hearing would be entitled to their full salary in the event they were released before Opening Day. That does not apply to players who go to a hearing — the provision incentivizes players on the fringe of rosters to settle — which makes Davis’ choice to proceed with a hearing consequential in retrospect.
Davis’ agent, Matt Hannaford of ALIGND Sports Management, criticized the team’s process leading up to the exchange of filing figures — implying that the team didn’t leave the player with much choice. “In my 22 years in the business, I’ve never seen a club in arbitration make their one and only offer less than an hour before the exchange deadline that ended up hundreds of thousands of dollars below their filing number,” Hannaford told reporters (link via John Shea and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle).
“The way the Giants negotiated gave J.D. no choice but to go to a hearing, which he did, and which we won. It’s unfortunate the club has handled things the way they have, but I’m confident in the player J.D. is and the value he will bring to his next team. I know he will end up in a better situation when all is said and done.”
The Giants’ official filing figure was $6.55MM. In response to Hannaford’s comments, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic and other reporters the team first offered “just slightly under $6.4MM.” Zaidi indicated the Giants did not consider that the team’s best and final offer and said that Davis’ camp replied that the number for a settlement “has to start with a 7.” Zaidi did not address the timing of the team’s offer but said ALIGND’s response came roughly 10 minutes before the time when teams and players are required to submit filing figures.
“They then filed at 6.9, and several hours after the deadline, called looking to engage in a settlement,” Zaidi said of Davis’ camp. “We said that out of fairness to our other negotiations and to maintain credibility with our policy going forward, we were not in a position to negotiate once the exchange deadline had passed.”
Nothing in the rules precludes teams and players from continuing to negotiate a settlement beyond the filing deadline. However, as a matter of policy, virtually every team declines to discuss one-year arbitration terms after the exchange date. Clubs view this as a way to deter players from anchoring future negotiations by submitting a filing figure that is higher than what they might expect to win at a hearing. (Teams sometimes get around their own “file-and-trial” policies by discussing multi-year deals, but that’s not always the case.)
Whether there was room for further negotiation before the filing exchange date, Zaidi didn’t deny Hannaford’s assertion that the team’s lone official offer was indeed below the rate at which they eventually filed. That makes it easy to understand why Davis declined that proposal.
One can debate whether his camp should have been more motivated to settle based on the possibility that the Giants may look to get out of the contract in Spring Training, but that’s far easier to say with the benefit of hindsight. While San Francisco had clearly viewed Chapman as a target all winter, they didn’t land him until well into Spring Training. The signing of Jorge Soler to a three-year deal to serve as designated hitter, blocking another path to playing time for Davis, also occurred after the filing exchange.
In any case, the chain of events seems likely to cost Davis some money. All 29 other teams passed on the opportunity to take his $6.9MM salary off outright waivers over the weekend. Zaidi said the Giants unsuccessfully looked for a trade partner between signing Chapman and cutting Davis loose. Hannaford tells Shea and Slusser that he’s hopeful that Davis will sign fairly quickly, but it’s not likely that he’ll make up the nearly $5.8MM difference at this stage of the offseason.
It’s possible his camp and the MLB Players Association will consider a grievance in an attempt to recoup some of that money, essentially arguing that Davis hadn’t failed to demonstrate sufficient skill. There’s no recent precedent for a successful grievance of that ilk, however. Davis’ release was not tied to a work-related injury, which would have been the basis for retaining his full salary.
Cases like this are rare, but it’s possible the Davis saga becomes a point of contention in the next round of CBA negotiations. Giants outfielder Austin Slater, a member of the MLBPA executive subcommittee, tells Shea and Slusser that fully guaranteeing arbitration salaries was a goal of the union’s the last time around.
“That was something we fought for, and we got. However, the league wasn’t willing to guarantee it if you went to a hearing. That remained the same. It was technically a win. Obviously, this is a very odd situation. And so there’s maybe more light brought onto it than previous years,” Slater told the Chronicle. “You never want to see something like that happen, but if there was a bright side out of it, it’s that guys are engaged and noticed that’s something that shouldn’t happen from a players’ union standpoint. Obviously, we love to have Chappy here. We’re thinking of J.D. as a person.“
Giants Release J.D. Davis
The Giants have requested unconditional release waivers on corner infielder J.D. Davis after he went unclaimed on outright waivers, the team announced to various reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). Once he clears, he’ll be a free agent.
Davis won an arbitration hearing over the Giants earlier in the offseason, which awarded him a $6.9MM salary. However, under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement, that sum isn’t fully guaranteed until Opening Day. By cutting him now, the Giants could potentially only owe him 30 days of termination pay — about $1.11MM. The CBA, however, explicitly states that this applies to players who have “failed to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability.” That hardly seems to apply to Davis, who hit .248/.325/.413 with 18 home runs during the 2023 regular season and is 6-for-15 with a pair of homers this spring (.400/.471/.800).
Under the previous collective bargaining agreement, no arbitration deals were fully guaranteed unless specifically bargained as such. The new set of rules fully guarantees the deals of players who agree to terms absent a hearing — but allows teams to move on from players who go to a hearing without being responsible for the full freight of the contract. A player released more 16 or more days before the season opener is entitled to 30 days of his prorated salary, whereas a player released with fewer than 16 days before the opener is entitled to 45 days of his prorated salary. Again, however, that’s contingent on “failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability.” Davis’ representatives at ALIGND Sports and the MLBPA ostensibly have cause to file a grievance on his behalf, claiming that his termination is not reflective of his skill (or lack thereof).
For much of the offseason, it looked as though Davis would be the Giants’ primary option at the hot corner. Matt Chapman lingered on the open market long enough that the Giants were able to scoop him up on a three-year deal at much more favorable terms than expected heading into the offseason. Chapman can opt out of that $54MM deal in either of the next two offseasons, but his price tag dropped to the point where the Giants felt they couldn’t pass on the deal — even it meant moving on from a productive player in the 31-year-old Davis.
The Giants unsuccessfully attempted to trade Davis after signing Chapman, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said on a call with reporters today (X link via Slusser). The team placed Davis on outright waivers over the weekend, but by this point on the calendar, most clubs have used up the bulk of their offseason budgets. A $6.9MM salary isn’t a notable percentage of most teams’ payrolls, but it was hefty enough at this time of the offseason that no team felt comfortable claiming it. The fact that Davis could be signed for a lesser salary upon clearing waivers and becoming a free agent surely played into the calculus for interested clubs as well.
While the 2023 season was far from Davis’ best, it was still a productive one all around. He’ll immediately become one of the most intriguing bats on the market and could land with any team looking to add some right-handed thump to its lineup. Last year’s .248/.325/.413 slash was four percent better than average, by measure of wRC+, but from 2019-22 Davis turned in a much healthier .276/.363/.457 line — about 27% better than average, per wRC+. Davis has roughly even platoon splits throughout his career.
From a defensive standpoint, an opposite trajectory has played out — at least in the eyes of Statcast. Davis has been panned as a poor defender for years at the hot corner, but Statcast graded him five outs above average in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved remained quite bearish on him (-11). Most clubs likely view Davis as a below-average defender and thus as a limited player, but there’s little doubting he’s a major league bat who can improve nearly any club’s everyday lineup — or at least its bench mix.
For the Giants, if they indeed succeed in shaving nearly $5.8MM off the books in 2024, they’ll be about $10MM shy of the luxury tax threshold, per RosterResouce. Whether that opens the door for any further, late additions in free agency or via the trade market remains to be seen. Zaidi has suggested that his team is likely done with significant additions, but he made similar comments after signing Jorge Soler and then went on to sign Chapman as well.
NL West Notes: Ahmed, Luciano, Machado, Otto, Treinen, Graterol
The Giants entered camp seemingly poised to hand longtime top prospect Marco Luciano the keys to the shortstop position entering the 2024 season. With that being said, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle recently indicated that the tides could be shifting in that regard, noting that non-roster invitee Nick Ahmed has “taken the lead” in the race to be the club’s Opening Day shortstop.
Ahmed, 34 later this week, spent the past ten seasons in Arizona as a regular fixture at shortstop, earning back-to-back Gold Glove awards for his superlative defense in 2018 and 2019. He’s struggled to stay on the field in recent years, drawing just 264 trips to the plate between the past two seasons, and in that time slashed a paltry .216/.258/.332. Rough as his last two seasons were, Ahmed’s non-roster deal with the Giants came with the opportunity to earn a regular role in San Francisco, and the veteran has made the most of that opportunity by slashing an incredible .556/.667/1.222 in his 12 trips to the plate this spring without recording a strikeout across his four appearances.
Luciano, by contrast, has hit a paltry .071/.188/.071 in six games this spring, striking out in 56.3% of his plate appearances without recording an extra-base hit. While numbers during Spring Training must be taken with a grain of salt for a number of reasons and it’s worth noting that Luciano was slowed by a hamstring issue early in camp, it would nonetheless be understandable if the Giants felt that Luciano’s weak results this spring indicated that the 22-year-old needs more development time at the Triple-A level. Luciano made his big league debut with San Francisco last year but struggled at the plate in his cup of coffee, hitting just .231/.333/.308 with a 37.8% strikeout rate in 45 trips to the plate.
More from around the NL West…
- Padres star Manny Machado is a “pretty safe” bet to be limited to DH duties during the Korea Series in Seoul later this month, manager Mike Shildt recently told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Machado underwent elbow surgery back in October and is coming off a relative down season by his standards, having slashed “just” .258/.319/.462 with a wRC+ of 114, a step down from the 140 wRC+ he posted across the previous three seasons. With Machado likely restricted to DH at-bats to open the season, the Padres appear likely to rely on a utility fielder like Matthew Batten or Eguy Rosario at the hot corner to open the season.
- Sticking with the Padres, Acee also reports that right-hander Glenn Otto, who the club claimed off waivers from the Rangers back in September, came out of the offseason likely to compete for a spot in the club’s rotation this spring but has been sidelined during camp by a teres major strain. Acee notes that he’s “progressing” toward a return to the mound but does not elaborate on what the righty’s timetable for return is. Otto, who will celebrate his 28th birthday tomorrow, was a fixture of the Rangers rotation back in 2022 with a 4.64 ERA in 27 starts but has generally struggled in the majors with a career 5.62 ERA and a walk rate north of 10%.
- While Dodgers right-hander Blake Treinen left yesterday’s game after being struck in the torso by a comebacker, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) that the veteran had avoided a major injury from the incident. Treinen was diagnosed with a bruised lung, which Roberts added should be healed within three to five days. That leaves Treinen likely to be available for Opening Day as a veteran option for the L.A. bullpen alongside the likes of Ryan Brasier and Daniel Hudson. Treinen has spent almost all of the past two seasons on the sidelines but owns a career 2.86 ERA and posted a 1.99 figure as recently as the 2021 season.
- Sticking with the Dodgers, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya notes that right-hander Brusdar Graterol will not be joining the Dodgers for the Korea Series in Seoul later this month, as he’s been sidelined much of the spring by hip tightness and shoulder soreness, though Graterol downplayed the latter issue to reporters recently. Graterol added in conversation with reporters (including Ardaya) that he figures to resume throwing on Tuesday and hopes to be ready to join the Dodgers in time for their stateside opener against the Cardinals on March 28. Graterol was one of the club’s most effective relievers last season, pitching to a sensational 1.20 ERA in 68 appearances.
Giants Place J.D. Davis On Waivers
The Giants have placed third baseman J.D. Davis on waivers, FanSided’s Robert Murray writes (via X). The move comes just a week after San Francisco signed Matt Chapman, which seemed to make Davis an odd man out in the team’s corner infield picture.
With Chapman now at third base, Jorge Soler at DH, and LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores slated as a platoon tandem at first base, there wasn’t much room for Davis to find everyday playing time, making him something of an overqualified bench piece. Chapman’s contract came after months of speculation that he would eventually land in San Francisco to re-unite with his former manager Bob Melvin, so really, trade rumors have been surrounding Davis for much of the offseason.
The waiver-wire move indicates that a trade couldn’t be found, yet that doesn’t mean that there isn’t interest in Davis’ services. It could be that rival clubs weren’t willing to meet whatever asking price Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was seeking, and were content to wait and see if Davis would just end up available to be claimed. By that same logic, it seems possible that Davis might also clear waivers entirely if no team wants to assume the $6.9MM salary he is owed for the 2024 season, after an arbitration panel ruled in Davis’ favor at a hearing last month.
The fact that Davis went to a hearing provides an interesting wrinkle to his salary situation, as per the terms of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement. Salaries for arbitration-eligible players are not fully guaranteed until they make the Opening Day roster, or (as noted by Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) unless they agree to a salary without going to a hearing — your standard “team and player have avoided arbitration” situation.
However, in going to a hearing, Davis could be subject to the CBA clause stating that San Francisco can part ways with him for a prorated portion of his $6.9MM salary. That prorated sum will be 30 days’ worth of termination pay if Davis is released earlier than 16 days prior to the start of the Giants’ season (their first game is on March 28), and 45 days’ worth of pay if he is released after that 16-day checkpoint. Davis might well have grounds for a grievance if the Giants try this tactic, as he has been tearing it up at the plate in Spring Training, and could therefore argue that he isn’t being released “for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability,” as detailed in the CBA wording.
Barring a potential grievance, the Giants would save roughly $5.793MM by releasing Davis before the 16-day threshold. It isn’t an insignificant sum, especially for a team that is approaching luxury tax status. RosterResource projects the Giants for a tax number of just under $231.3MM, leaving the club with only a little breathing room before hitting the $237MM tax line. Given how the Giants have pursued several high-salaried stars in recent years, paying the tax altogether probably isn’t seen as a huge barrier for ownership or the front office, yet naturally the team would ideally like to pay as little tax as possible. San Francisco could potentially still be adding another big salary to the ledger before Opening Day, as the Giants remain linked to top starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery on the rumor mill.
Davis hit .248/.325/.413 with 18 homers over 546 plate appearances with San Francisco in 2023, as hot starts and finishes to the season bookended a pretty severe slump over the summer months. The offensive production translated to a 104 wRC+, which is drop from the 118 wRC+ Davis posted over his first six MLB seasons with the Astros, Mets, and Giants.
While Davis’ bat has long been pretty solid, he has been something of a man without a defensive position. The public metrics give him decent grades over 287 2/3 innings as a first baseman, though Davis’ work at third base has generally been considered subpar. His 2023 performance drew at least mixed reviews, as Outs Above Average (+5) and UZR/150 (+0.8) had a positive view of his third base glovework, while the Defensive Runs Saved (-11) metric was much less impressed.
On paper, the Cubs, Brewers, Blue Jays, Rays, Nationals, Rangers, Guardians, Mariners, White Sox, Athletics, and Padres are teams that all have clear or hypothetical needs at either corner infield position or at DH, so any could potentially fit as Davis’ next landing spot. Even a relatively modest $6.9MM salary could provide an obstacle in some of these situations, and the presence of such other free agents (such as J.D. Martinez, Brandon Belt, or Evan Longoria) who could fill at least one of Davis’ positions might further complicate his market.
Giants Notes: Cobb, Hjelle, Black
The Giants have made a pair of key late-offseason additions to the offense, adding Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman since the opening of Spring Training. They join new center fielder Jung Hoo Lee in an overhauled lineup, leaving the starting rotation as the glaring question.
San Francisco has been frequently tied to top remaining starter Blake Snell, in part because of injuries to some of their in-house options. Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb, Tristan Beck and Sean Hjelle are all likely to begin the season on the injured list. However, Cobb appears slightly ahead of schedule as he works back from last year’s hip labrum repair.
The veteran righty got through a 25-pitch bullpen session yesterday and will throw live batting practice early next week. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters that while the team will be cautious not to push Cobb too quickly, they’ve “probably sped (the timeline) up a little bit” based on his progress (via MLB.com). The team announced a six-month recovery timetable for Cobb to log game action of any kind when he underwent surgery on Halloween.
It now looks as if he could be on track for a minor league rehab assignment earlier than that. To this point, the Giants have kept him off the 60-day injured list — a move that would prevent him from pitching at the MLB level before May 27.
The Giants also provided an encouraging update on Hjelle, who was diagnosed with an elbow sprain earlier in the week. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that he’s on track to begin a throwing program in one week after receiving a second opinion. The team had announced on Tuesday that Hjelle would be down for two weeks before going for reevaluation. The injury almost certainly still rules him out of the season-opening rotation mix, but it’s a positive development that his complete shutdown won’t last too long.
San Francisco has three locks for the Opening Day rotation: Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks. Righty Keaton Winn is the frontrunner for the #4 job. He was delayed early in camp with what seems to be minor elbow soreness and is still expected to be ready for Opening Day. Unless the Giants dip into free agency for someone like Snell, Jordan Montgomery or Michael Lorenzen, the fifth spot will be up for grabs.
Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic tweets that former third-round pick Mason Black “appears poised” to take a season-opening rotation job. The Lehigh product was scheduled for his third start of Spring Training this evening, but the game was rained out. He has logged five innings over his first two appearances, allowing three runs on six hits with three strikeouts.
Black, a 24-year-old righty, is not on the 40-man roster and has yet to make his MLB debut. He split last season almost evenly between the two highest levels of the minors. Black combined for a strong 3.71 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.3% of opposing hitters across 123 2/3 innings. He issued a few too many walks in a very hitter-friendly environment in Triple-A but hasn’t handed out a free pass yet this spring. Baseball America recently ranked him the #8 prospect in the organization, crediting him with a plus sinker/slider combination and fine if unexceptional control.
Giants, Justin Garza Agree To Minor League Deal
The Giants are in agreement with reliever Justin Garza on a minor league deal, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). The right-hander is expected to report to minor league camp, Alexander adds.
That indicates Garza won’t be on the radar for a spot in the Opening Day bullpen. He’ll presumably start the season at Triple-A Sacramento and seek a midseason call-up. The Fullerton product has pitched in the majors in two of the past three years. He logged 21 appearances in Cleveland in 2021. After spending the ’22 campaign in Triple-A, he returned to the big leagues with 17 outings as a low-leverage arm for the Red Sox last season.
Garza has yet to find much success against big league hitters. He posted a 4.71 ERA in his rookie season and allowed 7.36 earned runs per nine for Boston. Garza managed only an 18.7% strikeout percentage and walked upwards of 13% of batters faced for the Sox. He has given up a lot of hard contact in each of his MLB stints.
Things have gone a bit more smoothly in the upper minors. Garza owns a solid 3.98 ERA over parts of three Triple-A campaigns. He has fanned an above-average 27.7% of opposing hitters at that level. Throwing strikes consistently has still been an issue, but the 29-year-old (30 later this month) has shown the ability to miss bats against upper level hitters. He has averaged just under 95 MPH on his sinker in his big league work.
Garza has two minor league options remaining. If the Giants call on him at any point, they could move him between Oracle Park and Sacramento without exposing him to waivers.
MLBTR Podcast: The Giants Sign Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Snell And Montgomery Remain
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Giants sign Matt Chapman (2:50)
- Why do the Giants and other clubs keep giving players these opt-out deals? (6:45)
- What is the logic with Chapman and Cody Bellinger settling for these short-term deals? (10:20)
- What’s next for the Giants? Will they trade J.D. Davis? Go after Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery? (13:50)
- Why didn’t the Yankees or Mariners go after Chapman? (17:00)
- Phillies sign Zack Wheeler to extension (18:30)
- Should players focus more on guarantees or average annual values? (20:15)
- Did Shohei Ohtani not push things forward enough for players? (22:15)
- Was Wheeler not concerned about maximizing his guarantee? (25:10)
- What does the future look like for the Phillies? (26:35)
- What’s up with Snell and Montgomery now? Could the Orioles swoop in? (29:35)
- Does the Lucas Giolito news spur the Red Sox to jump on Snell or Montgomery? (31:20)
- What about other dark horses for Snell or Montgomery? (34:15)
- The case for the Brewers being a dark horse (35:55)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Is the late signing by the Boras clients a result of just how the market played out or the strategy of holding out? How does Boras spin this? (39:15)
- Are we seeing the end of the Scott Boras era? Especially with players more to their mid-30s. I’m not sure how you could objectively look at how the offseason has gone for his clients and think it was a win for them. (44:45)
Check out our past episodes!
- How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
- Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
- Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Will The Giants Trade J.D. Davis?
Trade rumors regarding J.D. Davis have been prevalent throughout the offseason. The Giants were linked to Matt Chapman for nearly four months before getting a deal done last week. Now that Chapman has displaced Davis from the starting lineup, there’s again speculation about a subsequent trade.
The Giants signing Chapman doesn’t seem to have been conditional on a Davis trade, as the latter remains on the San Francisco roster five days later. Davis is probably overqualified for a bench role. He has played fairly regularly over the past five seasons between the Mets and Giants. Davis has turned in above-average offensive numbers in each of those seasons, although last year’s .248/.325/.413 slash line was his weakest since he established himself as a regular.
Davis has received some criticism for his glove. Public metrics had almost unanimously graded him as a below-average defender until last season. There was a split in his defensive grades in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved still considered him among the worst third basemen in the league, grading him 11 runs below average. Statcast, by contrast, viewed his work as four runs better than par. No one would consider Davis comparable to Chapman with the glove, but pairing average or better defense with his power potential would make him a good everyday player.
That alone doesn’t mean the Giants need to trade him. San Francisco could keep him on hand as a quality depth option for this season. It’s not an ideal roster fit. Beyond Chapman, the Giants have Wilmer Flores as a righty-hitting corner infielder and will use Jorge Soler at designated hitter.
While Davis would have the ability to pursue an everyday third base job in free agency next winter, he doesn’t have much recourse right now. He said over the weekend that he’s willing to do “whatever the team needs,” even as he called the signing “definitely surprising” and stated he was unaware the team was adding Chapman before it was reported publicly (comments relayed by John Shea and Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle).
Carrying Davis in a limited role is a suboptimal outcome for the Giants. He’s making $6.9MM after winning an arbitration hearing. That’s a lot to commit for a player used sparsely off the bench. Yet even if the Giants decide they’d prefer to offload Davis’ salary, Chapman’s late signing date could complicate those efforts.
A number of teams have publicly declared they’re near or at the level at which they’re willing to spend. Some clubs might view Davis as a slight upgrade over their in-house third basemen but not want to add a near-$7MM salary less than three weeks before Opening Day. Free agent spending on infielders was down all offseason and has gone particularly cold in recent weeks. Players like Tim Anderson ($5MM), Amed Rosario ($1.5MM) and Gio Urshela ($1.5MM) inked one-year pacts for salaries below what Davis will command. The Urshela contract, in particular, doesn’t point to a robust demand for third basemen.
Where will that leave the Giants? Will whatever trade interest they receive in Davis over the next few weeks be strong enough that they deem it preferable to keeping him?
Will The Giants Trade J.D. Davis?
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Yes, before Opening Day. 46% (2,341)
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Yes, midseason. 35% (1,788)
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No. 19% (958)
Total votes: 5,087
Giants’ Tristan Beck Won’t Throw For Eight Weeks; Sean Hjelle Diagnosed With Elbow Sprain
The Giants announced this morning that right-hander Tristan Beck underwent successful surgery to repair an aneurysm in his right shoulder. He won’t throw for at least eight weeks. San Francisco also announced that right-hander Sean Hjelle has an elbow sprain and will be reevaluated in two weeks’ time. That represents a further blow to the team’s pitching depth, though Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets that Hjelle’s ulnar collateral ligament is intact. A timetable for his return won’t be known until that reevaluation, however.
It’s already been known that Beck would be facing a long absence after testing late last month found the aneurysm. The Giants placed him on the 60-day injured list this week when opening a roster spot for newly signed Matt Chapman. An eight-week shutdown period would stretch from now until April 30. Beck would then need to slowly ramp up, starting with light throwing on flat ground, to pitching off a mound, to facing live hitters and eventually pitching in minor league rehab games.
That process would require more than a month, in all likelihood, putting a potential return date somewhere in June, at the earliest. Of course, that’s all contingent on avoiding any setbacks and on Beck’s body recovering as hoped. The Giants will surely have updates along the way.
The news on Hjelle likely subtracts another depth option who could’ve stepped up to help fill Beck’s spot early in the season. Hjelle, a towering 6’11” 26-year-old, posted strong numbers in Double-A back in 2021 but has since struggled both as a starter and reliever in Triple-A and in the big leagues. The former second-round pick worked primarily as a starter in Triple-A Sacramento last year, struggling to a 6.00 ERA in 19 starts (plus three relief appearances) in that ultra-hitter-friendly setting. He made another 15 relief appearances with the big league club, posting 29 innings with a similarly disheartening 6.52 earned run average.
Hjelle sports an unsightly 6.17 ERA in 54 MLB innings but his 23.2% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and huge 56% ground-ball rate all portend better results over a larger sample. He’s been plagued by a sky-high .399 average on balls in play despite yielding just an 89 mph average exit velocity. Metrics like FIP (3.89) and SIERA (3.35) feel Hjelle has been far, far better in his limited big league time than his ERA would indicate.
Giants skipper Bob Melvin had already called out Hjelle as someone who could perhaps move into a rotation role to help compensate for the injury to Beck and provide some insurance in the event that right-hander Keaton Winn‘s elbow issue flares back up. (Winn was briefly shut down earlier in camp due to a nerve issue but has since resumed throwing without issue.) Instead, it appears quite likely that Hjelle will also open the season on the injured list. A two-week period without throwing will conclude with just over a week to go until Opening Day. Even if Hjelle were able to immediate pitch in games — which seems unlikely — it’s hard to imagine him ramping up to the point where he could be a viable rotation option.
At the moment, the Giants’ rotation consists of Logan Webb, top prospect Kyle Harrison, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks and the aforementioned Winn. A competition for the fifth spot could include trade acquisition Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng (already on the 40-man roster) and perhaps in-house nonroster pitchers like Carson Whisenhunt and Mason Black.
It was a perilously thin group even when all of Winn, Beck and Hjelle looked healthy. The Giants have been banking on this mix to carry them into the middle portion of the season. Alex Cobb will open on the injured list while rehabbing from October hip surgery but could be back within the first couple months of the season. Trade acquisition Robbie Ray is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and will be out until the final third of the season or so. Injuries to Beck and to Hjelle have only further called into question whether such an unproven group can steady the course until the Giants’ more veteran reinforcements arrive.
The Giants have been active in free agency late in the offseason, with signings of Chapman and Jorge Soler both completed after the beginning of spring training. Even with that pair of additions — plus their earlier pickups of Hicks and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee — reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell is reportedly still a consideration. Fellow southpaw Jordan Montgomery is also still on the market, as are lower-tier arms like Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen, Eric Lauer and others.
San Francisco currently projects for a payroll just under $182MM, per RosterResource. Their projected luxury tax ledger currently sits at $231MM — just $6MM or so shy of the first threshold. Signing Snell or Montgomery will assuredly put the team over that line, and Snell would require further forfeitures in the amateur draft and international free agency. The Giants already punted their second-highest pick and $500K of next year’s international bonus pool space to sign Chapman; Snell would require surrendering their third-round pick and an additional $500K of international spending capacity. Both players would also result in the Giants paying a 20% tax for the first $20MM by which the luxury barrier is exceeded, plus a 32% tax on the next $20MM.
It’s possible that even Lorenzen or Clevinger could push the Giants into tax territory, although there are other moves that could be made to counteract that. The signing of Chapman, for instance, could make J.D. Davis and his $6.9MM salary more expendable. If the Giants were able to move Davis and some/all of that salary, they could create as much as $13MM in breathing room between themselves and the $237MM tax line.