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Mariners Showing Increased Interest In Melky Cabrera

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11:00pm: The Mariners are indeed ramping up their pursuit of Cabrera, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman adds that the Mariners are believed to be willing to offer something similar to the four-year, $57MM contract they used to lure Cruz to the Emerald City. He also notes that the White Sox, Reds, Royals and Giants have all been linked to Cabrera.

Heyman, too, notes that Cabrera is seeking a five-year commitment, and if that’s the case despite the Mariners possibly being willing to offer north of $50MM over four years, it seems possible that his asking price is closer to $60MM. That, of course, is solely my own speculation. Earlier this offseason I pegged Cabrera for a five-year pact worth roughly $66MM in his free agent profile.

7:07pm: The Mariners are showing increased interest in free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports. Seattle is reportedly in the market for a right-handed bat, but GM Jack Zduriencik recently noted that a switch-hitter would hold particular appeal.

Cabrera is after a five-year deal with a guarantee of over $50MM, Dutton adds. Though the 30-year-old has been said to have an interest in playing somewhere on the east side of the country, sources tell Dutton that the 30-year-old is now willing to consider a broader geographical range.

Seattle’s interest goes beyond the fact that Cabrera is now the best free agent bat left unsigned. The club believes he would make a good fit in the two hole, a slot that it had considered filling with Torii Hunter before he joined the Twins. Matt Kemp, a trade target that the M’s are weighing, may not be an optimal fit in that lineup spot, Dutton writes.

Further, the Mariners would hold an advantage over some other possible suitors because they have already given up their first-round draft choice by signing Nelson Cruz. The qualifying offer-bound Cabrera would only cost Seattle its second-round choice at this point.

Free Agent Notes: Top Pitchers, Rios, Royals, Everth, Astros

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With the Winter Meetings nearly upon us, ESPN’s Jayson Stark spoke to nine baseball executives regarding the “Big Three” starting pitchers on this year’s free agent market — Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields — and asked when and where they will sign. While answers as to when Scherzer will sign varied, there was a much tighter window on Lester, with all nine believing he will sign between Dec. 8 and Dec. 13. The execs polled by Stark feel that Shields’ market is tied so closely to Lester that he will sign within two weeks of Lester and perhaps even as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. Many identified Shields as a fallback for teams that miss on Lester. Execs picked Lester to sign with the usual suspects at this point: the Red Sox, Cubs, Giants or Dodgers. Interestingly, Scherzer’s landing spot was predicted to be the Yankees, Nationals, Cubs or Tigers, by the five who were willing to wager a guess on that outcome.

A few more notes pertaining to free agency…

  • The Mariners, Royals, and Indians have all checked in on Alex Rios, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Rios, who joined the Boras Corporation earlier this offseason, has had a fairly quiet market to this point, though one would expect interest to pick up now that Nelson Cruz, Torii Hunter and Yasmany Tomas are off the market.
  • The Royals are looking for a right fielder and a starting pitcher but likely only have the available funds to make a “significant” investment in one of the two areas, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The Royals may have to bargain shop for the other, he notes. Kansas City has invested a modest amount of its available funds to the bullpen in the past week, re-signing righties Jason Frasor and Luke Hochevar. However, it’s at least worth noting that Hochevar’s contract reportedly contains performance incentives tied to starting (though it also contains relief incentives).
  • Though the Mets are in need of a shortstop, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin writes that recently non-tendered Padres speedster Everth Cabrera is not a consideration. Though he’s talented and has twice led the NL in stolen bases, Cabrera has a good deal of off-field issues on his record, including a 50-game PED suspension and more recent legal issues, as he’s been charged with resisting arrest after being stopped for suspicion of driving under the influence of marijuana. (Cabrera plead not guilty to those charges today, per the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Jeff Sanders.)
  • Lefty reliever Craig Breslow is drawing significant interest, but his timetable to sign is currently dependent on the rest of the relief market, tweets WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Breslow is coming off a down season but has a strong track record. Interest in Breslow and other relievers could intensify now that Andrew Miller is off the board, I would think.
  • Though the Astros missed out on Miller even after offering him more money than the Yankees did, they’re still on the hunt for relievers, tweets Heyman. Houston remains interested in David Robertson, Sergio Romo and others.

Matt Kemp Rumors: Friday

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Last night, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports shed some light on the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp trade talks with the Padres, reporting that Yasmani Grandal would likely be in any package, with money heading back to San Diego to help facilitate the deal. Kemp’s name figures to be a heavily discussed topic in the coming days as we prepare for the 2014 Winter Meetings. We’ll keep track of Friday’s Kemp rumors in this post…

  • The Rangers have also checked in on Kemp, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Texas is known to be in the market for an outfield bat with Alex Rios’ departure. They’ve previously been linked to Torii Hunter (who signed with the Twins) and Justin Upton.

Earlier Updates

  • The Mariners remain in talks with the Dodgers regarding Kemp, according to Rosenthal (Twitter links). While the $107MM commitment remaining on Kemp’s contract is an obstacle, the Mariners have shown a real reluctance to give up a significant package for one year of Justin Upton. Rosenthal’s implication seems to be that if some money heads to Seattle in the deal, they may be more willing to part with talent for a long-term upgrade than a rental player.
  • The Orioles are also in talks for Kemp, tweets Rosenthal, and they have a different obstacle in those discussions. Baltimore is known to generally be one of the game’s most cautious teams when it comes to injuries, and Kemp has a spotty health track record. He underwent ankle and shoulder surgeries following the 2013 season, Rosenthal notes. Additionally, Kemp had shoulder surgery following the 2012 season. He played in just 179 games from 2012-13, though he’s been durable in the surrounding years. Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun makes a good point, tweeting that it’s hard to see the O’s setting aside injury concerns with Kemp when they just let Nick Markakis, who had been a fixture in right field, depart due to concerns pertaining to a neck issue.

AL West Notes: Astros, Iwakuma, Happ, Rangers

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Astros GM Jon Daniels talked Winter Meetings with MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Among the topics were rumors surrounding Dexter Fowler and Jason Castro. Luhnow says teams have called on both players, but Houston is not actively seeking to deal either of them. Luhnow is particularly happy with his catching depth, which includes Castro, Hank Conger, Carlos Corporan, and Max Stassi. He also pointed out the club is open to trading prospects in the right deal, as they did with Jordan Lyles, Jarred Cosart, and Nick Tropeano.

  • Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik reiterated that pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma will not be traded, tweets Greg Johns of MLB.com. Iwakuma, 34 next season, has been excellent when healthy. Unfortunately, he’s also missed parts of two out of three major league seasons.
  • The Mariners are already receiving calls on recently acquired starter J.A. Happ, tweets Kevin Shockey of SportsRadioKJR.com. My guess is that teams are looking to gauge how the Mariners plan to use Happ. The southpaw quietly added two mph to his fastball last season and adjusted his repertoire as a result. Some clubs may view him as a possible breakout target.
  • One option to replace outfielder Michael Saunders is infielder Brad Miller, writes Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle. The club’s outfield coach called him a natural, and he does appear to be blocked by Robinson Cano, Chris Taylor, and Kyle Seager in the infield. Taylor is obviously the weak link of the trio. After a solid but flawed debut, he could relinquish the job back to Miller.
  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels would like to add at least one more starter, tweets Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Another area of concern for the club – catcher – could be solved by a familiar face. When asked about former Ranger Geovany Soto (via Twitter), Daniels said “the door’s open.” Soto spent parts of the last three seasons as the Rangers backup catcher.

Mariners Sign Nelson Cruz

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5:00pm: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that Cruz will earn $14MM per season plus his $1MM signing bonus, making it a four-year, $57MM deal.

DECEMBER 4, 11:09am: The deal is official, with the team announcing the signing today.

DECEMBER 1: The Mariners have agreed to a multi-year deal with Nelson Cruz, reports Dominican journalist Yancen Pujols (Spanish link). According to Pujols, it’s a four-year, $57MM contract. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick hears that the deal is still pending a physical (Twitter link). Cruz is represented by agent Diego Bentz of Relativity Sports.

Nelson Cruz

Cruz, 34, led the Majors in home runs this past season (40) while putting together an excellent .271/.333/.525 batting line. He ranked alongside Victor Martinez and Melky Cabrera as the best bats on the market this offseason, and he arguably provides the Mariners with the best power upgrade money could buy on the free agent market. Though he’s never approached the 40 homers he hit in 2014 previously, Cruz boasts a lifetime .232 isolated power mark and has averaged 37 homers per 162 games since 2009.

Of course, he’s also had difficulty staying on the field in that stretch. Cruz has a history of hamstring and quadriceps injuries in both legs, and he hit the DL for such maladies five times between 2010-11. He played a career-high 159 games in 2012 (a figure he matched in 2014) and was healthy in 2013 before a 50-game suspension cut his season short after he was connected to the Biogenesis PED scandal. Cruz admitted to making a mistake and taking a banned substance in 2012 after a bout with a bacterial infection called helicobacter pylori caused him to lose nearly 40 pounds in the 2011-12 offseason.

While many will forever connect Cruz to PEDs as a result of that infraction, he was tested extensively in 2013 and in 2014 without suspension, and he batted .269/.331/.518 in that time, so the Mariners are likely to have a significant offensive upgrade on their hands. He figures to see time in both right field and at DH with Seattle — two areas in which Seattle needed additional offense. Mariners DHs combined to bat just .190/.266/.301 last year, while their right fielders hit a pedestrian .255/.308/.413. Though the move to Seattle’s Safeco Field would appear to be a detriment to his right-handed pop, both ESPN Park Factors and Baseball Prospectus Park Factors indicated that in 2014, Orioles Park at Camden Yards was actually less homer-friendly for right-handed bats than Safeco Field. That’s not to say Cruz will repeat his career year, but the drop-off could be less significant than some are anticipating.

For all of the positives there are to say about Cruz’s offense, however, there are negatives when it comes to his defensive value. Cruz played a passable left field in a small, 500-inning sample with the Orioles in 2014, but he’s been below-average in right over the past four seasons and only figures to get worse as he ages. Given his history of leg injuries, it’s more than fair to wonder how much outfield time he can handle in 2015 and how much of his offensive value will be negated by his defense. Of course, if he spends much of his time at DH, there’s a chance he can still resemble the three to four win player he was in 2014.

The Mariners missed a Wild Card playoff berth by a mere game in 2014 after flirting with the idea of signing Cruz last winter but ultimately passing because they weren’t interested in adding any PED-linked players. That line of thinking has clearly changed now. It’s possible that Seattle decision-makers rightly realized that had they inked Cruz a year ago, they’d likely have made the playoffs. Whether that line of thinking justifies a four-year commitment to a defensively challenged player in his mid-30s is up for debate, but the M’s have every reason to make aggressive plays for the 2015 and 2016 seasons, and Cruz should still be of significant help in those campaigns. This is the final season of Hisashi Iwakuma’s contract, and superstar Robinson Cano is on the back end of his prime, so it makes sense for the Mariners to push for contention now, even if the moves contain some downside in the 2017-18 seasons, as this one likely does.

Cruz was also pursued heavily by the Orioles, but his former team wouldn’t budge from its unwillingness to guarantee a fourth season. Now, they’ll pick up a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round next season, while the Mariners will surrender what would have been the 19th pick in the draft (they had been slated to pick 21st but moved up after the Mets and Blue Jays forfeited picks to sign Michael Cuddyer and Russell Martin, respectively). The departure of Cruz would seem to increase the chances that Nick Markakis will be back in Baltimore, and one would think it also lessens the likelihood of the Mariners acquiring Justin Upton from the Mariners — a player in whom they’ve reportedly shown interest. Speculatively speaking, Seattle could still pay a premium to acquire Upton as part of an aggressive run at the 2015 season, with Cruz spending most of his time at DH and Upton serving as the right fielder.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Notes: Melky, Gomes, White Sox

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As we wait for word on several fast-moving free agent situations, here’s the latest out of the market:

  • Outfielder Melky Cabrera is looking for a five-year deal, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. That is not surprising as an asking price, given that Cabrera is just 30 years of age, though it remains to be seen whether he can get that fifth year guaranteed.
  • More surprising, perhaps, is that the Giants have expressed in Cabrera, per another Rosenthal tweet. While the match makes sense on paper, Cabrera left San Francisco on somewhat strained terms a few years back. But with options quickly disappearing to fill San Francisco’s void in left field, Cabrera could hold renewed appeal. Of course, San Francisco has been said to be casing a wide net in its search for upgrades, and it is not yet clear how seriously it intends to pursue Cabrera.
  • The Rangers and Mariners join the previously-reported Cubs as teams to have checked in on outfielder Jonny Gomes, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. The veteran lefty-masher should have his choice of several landing spots, and will no doubt look to maximize his expected role.
  • As the White Sox look to add a right-handed starter, the team is not ruling out pursuit of high-end free agents, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That includes quality arms up to and including Max Scherzer, says Heyman, who notes that Chicago remains unlikely to make the massive outlay that will be required to add the consensus best arm available. The South Siders are also exploring the trade market, of course, and are looking not only at controllable options but also a variety of veterans with just one year remaining on their deals.

Mariners, Blue Jays Swap Michael Saunders, J.A. Happ

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The Mariners have officially acquired lefty J.A. Happ from the Blue Jays in exchange for outfielder Michael Saunders, as Jayson Stark of ESPN.com first reported on Twitter. Both teams have been aggressive in adding talent early in the offseason, and this move seems to set up additional action for each.

MLB: Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

In Happ, 32, Seattle has added a left-handed starter who just threw 158 innings of 4.22 ERA ball, striking out 7.6 and walking 2.9 batters per nine. That makes him a reasonably useful pitcher, though he’ll play for $6.7MM this year before hitting free agency. But Happ has never returned to the production he flashed back in 2009, when he notched a 2.93 ERA over 166 frames (while carrying a less-encouraging 4.33 FIP).

Saunders, meanwhile, is a 28-year-old outfielder who brings plenty of talent with him to Toronto and fills a need for the Jays. He has had three straight above-average offensive seasons, including a .273/.341/.450 slash over 263 plate appearances in an injury-limited 2014 campaign. Though advanced metrics have not always been in love with his defensive work, particularly in center, he posted solid numbers last year and is generally viewed as a good fielder. Projected to earn $2.9MM in arbitration, Saunders comes with an additional season of non-guaranteed control as well.

Though the Jays are left without a sturdy rotation option, the team does have young arms to fill in with upside to spare. And Saunders makes an excellent fit for a club that has an opening in the corner outfield and is relying on youngsters in center. Even better, the nearly $3MM in cost savings will open up more flexibility as the club looks to build out its pen and address other areas of need.

The move certainly makes sense of last night’s non-tender decisions. With Saunders in the fold, the Jays seem unlikely to continue pursuing Melky Cabrera. Indeed, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that to be the case on Twitter. The club’s extra payroll space will also create opportunities to add back to the team’s big league rotation.

It is somewhat more difficult to understand the logic from the Mariners’ perspective. Though Saunders and the team squabbled earlier in the offseason, and he was part of a generally lefty-heavy lineup, the fact remains that he is a valuable young contributor. While Happ will add some stability to the rotation, that was not exactly a pressing area of need, and one cannot help but wonder whether a slightly more substantial return might have been possible.

Of course, if another move for an outfielder is in the works, then the moving pieces could begin to line up. And GM Jack Zduriencik gave the impression to reporters, including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link) that he intends to do just that.

Dodgers Notes: Outfielders, Ogando, Non-Tenders

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The Orioles, Padres and Mariners have shown interest in Matt Kemp, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. However, one source tells Heyman that Baltimore has gotten “nowhere” in trade talks with Los Angeles. The Padres have spoken to the Dodgers about Kemp, and while the Dodgers may have some interest in top catching prospect Austin Hedges, Heyman feels San Diego is more inclined to move Rene Rivera or Yasmani Grandal. The Mariners may not have the budget after signing Nelson Cruz and extending Kyle Seager. Generally speaking, Heyman hears from rival executives that the Dodgers still seem reluctant to pull the trigger on any Kemp deal.

More Dodgers notes…

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looks at how much money the team would have to eat to move Kemp, Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford. Rosenthal estimates each player’s market value and notes that teams aren’t going to part with prospects for the right to pay an overpaid player at his true market rate. Rather, the Dodgers will need to pay down additional millions of dollars, meaning that a player like Ethier, in Rosenthal’s estimation, could need to be accompanied by as much as $30-36MM to facilitate the deal.
  • The Dodgers will take a look at recently non-tendered right-hander Alexi Ogando, reports Mark Saxon of ESPN Los Angeles (Twitter link). However, as Saxon notes, Ogando figures to draw interest from many clubs. The righty is rehabbing from an elbow injury but has previously proven himself to be a capable starter or reliever.
  • In a more general sense, Saxon spoke with GM Farhan Zaidi (Twitter link), who noted that there are a lot of pitchers with high ceilings that were non-tendered as they rehab from injuries, and the Dodgers will look into those arms to see if there’s a match. Among the top names from the non-tender class include now-former Braves righties Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy (as well as Ogando).

2014-15 American League Non-Tenders

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Major League clubs have until 11pm CT tonight to tender contracts to players for the 2015 season. We’ll run down the list of American League non-tenders here, and update it as reports come in. Remember that you can track all of the action using MLBTR’s Non-Tender tracker, and we offer a full list of non-tender candidates (in the estimation of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes). Also important for reference is the set of arbitration salary projections from MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. Click here for an explanation of the process, and be sure to check out this piece featuring some interesting observations from Tim regarding non-tender considerations.

  • Slade Heathcott, Jose Campos, and David Huff have all been non-tendered by the Yankees, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter.
  • The Twins have tendered contracts to all arb-eligible players, per MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (Twitter link).
  • Third baseman Carlos Rivero is the only non-tender for the Mariners, the club announced. Rivero was not yet arbitration eligible.
  • The Astros have tendered contracts to all arb-eligible players, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports on Twitter.
  • The Royals have non-tendered lefty Francisley Bueno, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reports on Twitter. He was not yet eligible for arbitration.
  • As expected, the Tigers have offered arbitration to all eligible players, Anthony Fench of the Detroit Free Press tweets.
  • The Athletics have declined to offer arbitration to Kyle Blanks and Andrew Brown, the team announced. Both had previously been designated for assignment. Oakland will retain control over the remainder of its eligible players, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
  • As with several other clubs, the Rays will proceed without any non-tenders, the club announced (per a tweet from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times).
  • Likewise, the Orioles have tendered contracts to each of their eleven arb-eligible players, the team announced.
  • The Indians have tendered contracts to all five eligible players, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). Cleveland had a fairly straightforward group. Indeed, Dierkes did not list any players as reasonable NT candidates.
  • Scott Snodgress and Scott Carroll have been non-tendered by the White Sox, Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com tweets. Both players were pre-arbitration eligible, meaning that Chicago could have renewed them at the MLB minimum.
  • The Red Sox have non-tendered third baseman Juan Francisco but will otherwise tender contracts to all eligible players, the club announced (h/t to Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com, via Twitter). Francisco had already been designated for assignment, making this one of the day’s least surprising moves.

Mariners Extend Kyle Seager

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DECEMBER 2: MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has the breakdown (links to Twitter). Seager will earn $4MM next year before taking home $7.5MM (2016), $10.5MM (2017), $18.5MM (2018), $19MM (2019 and 2020), and $18MM (2021). A $3.5MM bonus brings the total guarantee to $100MM.

As for the option year, both the contract price and the buyout fluctuate based on performance. The former can land between $15MM and $20MM while the latter may fall between zero and $3MM. Notably, the option becomes a player option if Seager is dealt, Dierkes adds via Twitter.

In sum, then, the deal can max out at $120MM over eight years.

NOVEMBER 24: The Mariners and third baseman Kyle Seager have officially completed a seven-year, $100MM extension,. The deal was first reported by Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. The contract contains an option for an eighth season which could be worth as much as $20MM, depending on performance escalators, Passan adds. Seager’s deal is pending a physical. He is represented by Jet Sports Management’s Andrew Lowenthal.

Kyle Seager

Seager’s payday is well-deserved, as the 27-year-old has emerged as one of baseball’s best third basemen over the past three seasons. Seager has established himself as a durable source of power in an increasingly pitcher-friendly environment, and he’s a solid defender at third base as well. This past season, he batted .268/.334/.454 with a career-high 25 homers and excellent defensive marks (+10 DRS, +9.2 UZR/150) at third. His offense has increased incrementally with each full season in the Majors, and he’s never been placed on the disabled list.

Originally selected in the third round of the 2009 draft out of UNC, Seager has spent his entire career with the Mariners organization and now looks poised to spend the majority of his days as a Major Leaguer calling Safeco Field his home. The new contract will run through Seager’s age-33 season, with the option year covering his age-34 campaign. Seager had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5MM this offseason as a first-time arbitration eligible player.

If we take a guess at his second- and third-time arbitration figures — and this is a highly rudimentary estimate — he may have earned something in the range of $27-30MM over his arbitration seasons. That means the four free agent seasons purchased in this contract are valued somewhere between $17.5MM and $18.25MM. Seager becomes just the fourth player in his service class to secure a $100MM payday. As Passan tweets, only Mike Trout, Buster Posey and Freddie Freeman had reached that feat prior to this deal.

MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently looked at each team’s future payroll obligations, where the Mariners were among the leaders in future commitment due to their contracts with Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano. While this will further boost their long-term commitments and potentially limit their ability to add a large contract via trade or free agency, team president Kevin Mather recently said payroll will continue to increase following the $107MM spent in 2014. And, the contracts don’t overlap entirely; Hernandez is only controlled through 2019, which will be just the second free agent season on Seager’s deal. The team could potentially backload the contract, to some extent, to create sustained financial flexibility until Hernandez’s deal is off the books.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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