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Marlins Have Shown Interest In Tim Anderson

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The Marlins are among the teams looking into White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The two-time All-Star is in the midst of a down season but could be viewed by some clubs as a buy-low, change of scenery candidate.

That’d be the hope in Miami, where the team’s in-house options at shortstop have also underwhelmed. Marlins shortstops are hitting .258/.301/.335 on the season, with Joey Wendle, Jon Berti, Garrett Hampson and Jacob Amaya all having appeared at the position. Anderson’s .245/.285/.285 line is even worse than that, though he’s hitting .378/.440/.422 since the All-Star Game and .300/.345/.350 overall this month. Beyond that, Anderson has a lengthy track record of excellence at the plate; from 2019-22, he batted .318/.347/.473, leading all qualified hitters in batting average during that time.

Anderson would be a pricey addition by the Marlins’ standards. He’s being paid $12.5MM this season and has a $14MM club option for the 2024 campaign (though a $1MM buyout makes it a net $13MM decision for the team). He’s still owed about $4.5MM of this year’s salary between now and season’s end, plus at least the $1MM option buyout.

Looking ahead to the 2024 season, Miami only has about $38MM on the books — assuming slugger Jorge Soler opts out of the remaining one year and $9MM on his contract. That’s before they pick up a $3.5MM option on Berti and before considering raises for notable arbitration-eligible players. Luis Arraez, Jesus Luzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott, Trevor Rogers and A.J. Puk are among Miami’s arb-eligibles; Arraez, Scott and Luzardo, in particular, will be due notable raises from their respective $6.1MM, $2.825MM and $2.45MM salaries for the 2023 season. Penciling in a $14MM salary for Anderson from the jump would put Miami on track to run a $100MM+ payroll for just the third time in franchise history.

At this stage it’s far from a given that Anderson will end up in Miami — or even that he’ll change hands at all. The White Sox aren’t looking to tear the roster down and embark on another lengthy rebuild but rather are looking to retool to take another shot at contending in 2024. Anderson could well be a part of that, and a big second half would quickly restore the notion that his option is an easy call to exercise. As it stands, it’s a far closer call than anyone would’ve reasonably expected heading into the year.

That said, Chicago’s top prospect, 2021 first-rounder Colson Montgomery, has ripped through minor league pitching since returning from a monthslong stay on the injured list. Montgomery has scarcely played above the High-A level but figures to see ample time in Double-A later this summer. It’s possible he could be ready for a big league look at some point in 2024, and the Sox could always trade Anderson and then sign/acquire a low-cost veteran to bridge the gap to Montgomery this offseason.

The White Sox already traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels last night, and as of earlier this month they were reportedly willing to entertain offers on anyone other than the quartet of Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Vaughn. The Marlins, meanwhile, got into the trade game yesterday as well when they swapped Dylan Floro for Jorge Lopez in an exchange of struggling relievers.

Twins, Marlins Swap Jorge López, Dylan Floro

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The Marlins and Twins have swapped right-handed relievers, with Dylan Floro heading to the Twins and Jorge López going to the Marlins, per an announcement from the Twins. Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reported the deal prior to the official announcement.

Jorge Lopez | D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY SportsThis appears to be something of a “change of scenery” deal on each end, as both pitchers are having poor results this year compared to their previous bodies of work. López, 30, had been a fairly mediocre starter for many years but thrived in a move to the bullpen with the Orioles last year. He tossed 48 1/3 innings with a 1.68 earned run average, striking out 27.6% of opponents while walking 8.7% and getting grounders on 60% of balls in play.

The O’s still had two and a half years of club control over López at last year’s deadline but decided to sell high, flipping him to the Twins for four young pitchers. That was a questionable move at the time from Baltimore’s perspective since they were above .500 and flirting with contention, yet traded away one of their most effective relievers. But in retrospect, it looks like a big win for the Orioles since one of the four pitchers they got back was Yennier Cano, who’s having a breakout season with a 1.82 ERA through 44 appearances this year.

López, meanwhile, has not been able to maintain his own Baltimore breakout. After the deal last year, he had a 4.37 ERA for the Twins, with all of his peripherals moving in the wrong direction. Things have gotten even worse here in 2023, as has a 5.09 ERA through 35 1/3 innings. His 7.1% walk rate is fine and his 48.6% grounder rate is still solid, but he’s only getting strikeouts at a 17.4% rate. The long ball has also become a problem, as he’s let seven go over the fence already this season after just four last year.

He can still be retained via arbitration for another season but it seems the Twins didn’t have much faith in getting him back on track, as they’ve now swapped him for another struggling reliever, but one who is an impending free agent.

Floro, 32, had a 3.15 career ERA coming into this year, working exclusively as a reliever for the Rays, Cubs, Reds, Dodgers and Marlins. In 277 1/3 innings prior to this year, he struck out 21.2% of opponents, walked 7.5% and kept the ball on the ground at a 51.1% clip. That even included some high-leverage work, as he notched double-digit saves with the Fish in each of the past two seasons.

The results haven’t been as good here in 2023, as his ERA has jumped up to 4.54. It’s possible there’s some bad luck to blame, as his peripherals are actually better than his career marks. He’s striking out 24% of hitters, walking just 6.4% and keeping the ball in the dirt 55.1% of the time. His 2.78 FIP and 3.15 SIERA suggest he’s actually been pretty close to the pitcher he’s always been, with a .397 batting average on balls in play and 62.9% strand rate pushing some extra runs across this year.

Both clubs are contenders this year. The Twins 54-50 and currently hold a two-game lead over the Guardians in the AL Central. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 55-48 and half a game back in the NL Wild Card race. It seems each club feels they can get more out of their new pitcher than they were getting from the old one.

Financially, there’s not a huge difference between the two, though López has an extra year of control. Floro is making $3.9MM this year and is slated for the open market in a few months. López is making $3.525MM and can be retained via arbitration for next year.

It’s been speculated by many observers that this year’s trade deadline might be unique, with the expanded playoffs and some tight divisional races making few clearcut sellers. It’s been suggested that this summer might see more “baseball trades” wherein two contenders swap win-now pieces. This appears to be one such example, with each club relinquishing a struggling reliever in order to take a shot on a different one.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Acquire Jose Castillo From Padres

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The Marlins have acquired left-handed reliever Jose Castillo from the Padres in exchange for cash, per a team announcement. Castillo, whom the Padres designated for assignment last week, has been optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville. Miami had an opening on its 40-man roster, so a corresponding transaction isn’t necessary.

The 27-year-old Castillo had a strong debut with the Padres back in 2018 but has been clobbered with injuries since that time. His 2019 season ended after just two-thirds of an inning due to a torn ligament in his hand. He missed the shortened 2020 season due to a lat strain and had the bulk of his 2021-22 campaigns wiped out following Tommy John surgery.

Castillo logged a sharp 3.23 ERA in his first 39 big league innings, fanning 35.1% of his opponents against an 8.4% walk rate. However, he’s pitched just two big league innings since the start of the 2019 campaign due to that litany of injuries.

Castillo did return to the mound in the minors last season, notching a tidy 2.59 ERA in 48 1/3 innings between Class-A and Triple-A. However, he’s been rocked for a 9.82 ERA in 18 1/3 Triple-A frames so far in 2023 and surrendered four runs in just one-third of an inning in his lone MLB appearance this year.

This is Castillo’s final minor league option season, so he’ll need to establish himself as a viable big league bullpen option before season’s end or else be at risk of being subtracted from the 40-man roster this offseason. He’s already over three years of Major League service time — most of it spent on the injured list — so he’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter and would be a clear non-tender candidate if he can’t take a step forward in his new organization. And, because he has more than three years of service, he’d become a free agent at season’s end if he’s outrighted before that time.

Marlins Intereted In Jeimer Candelario

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The Marlins have interest in Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Miami views “Candelario as a perfect fit.”  With a cumulative -0.9 bWAR posted by Marlins third basemen this season, no team has received less from the hot corner than the Fish, as Jean Segura’s resurgence over the last few weeks haven’t been enough to erase his very rough performance over the first three months.  Segura could move into a utility role in the event of a Candelario trade, as Luis Arraez is a lineup fixture at second base, Jorge Soler is primarily a DH, and the hot-hitting Garrett Cooper is the primary first baseman.

Candelario is one of the more obvious trade candidates available heading into the deadline, as the Nationals are out of the race and Candelario will be a free agent after the season.  After a poor 2022 season with the Tigers, Candelario has bounced back nicely to hit .254/.333/.474 with 15 homers over 390 plate appearances with Washington.  He is owed roughly $1.8MM in remaining salary this season, which is a modest sum anyway but shouldn’t be a problem for the Marlins — owner Bruce Sherman has promised financial “resources” for deadline additions.  Of course, Sherman’s statement came before Miami suffered through an eight-game losing streak out of the All-Star break, but the Fish got back into the win column with today’s 3-2 win over the Rockies.

Marlins Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Thomas White

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The Marlins have signed supplemental first-round pick Thomas White, as noted by MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis. The sides came to an agreement on a $4,100,000 signing bonus, a figure first reported by Kevin Barral of Fish On First. That figure checks in far above the $2,420,900 slot value of the 35th overall pick with which White was selected.

White, 18, is a left-handed pitcher selected out of Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts. Coming into the draft, most evaluators saw White, who was widely considered to be the top southpaw in this year’s draft class, as a clear first-round talent. Keith Law of The Athletic ranked him 27th in the class, as did Fangraphs, though MLB Pipeline had him slightly higher at 24th. Baseball America, meanwhile, is highest on White, placing him 19th in the class. That being said, Law noted that there were concerns headed into draft day regarding whether White would sign with a club or honor his commitment to Vanderbilt.

The 6-foot-5, 210 pound lefty sports a mid-90s fastball and a quality three-pitch mix including a curveball and changeup that both draw plus grades from various services, though the curveball is generally better regarded than the changeup. White’s primary flaw is widely considered to be his command, which most services view as below average. Still, if his command evens out, prospect evaluators seem to be largely in agreement that White has front-of-the-rotation potential.

White’s selection continues the Marlins’ tendency toward selecting pitchers in the first round in recent years. In addition to White, Miami selected right-hander Noble Meyer with the 10th overall pick of this year’s draft. In previous years, the Fish have selected right-hander Max Meyer (2020) along with left-handers Trevor Rogers (2017) and Braxton Garrett (2016) with their first round picks.

Marlins Outright Jerar Encarnación

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The Marlins have outrighted outfielder Jerar Encarnación off their roster, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. There had not been any previous public reporting about Encarnación being designated for assignment, so this move drops their 40-man roster count to 39.

Encarnación, now 25, garnered attention as a prospect based on his power potential, though with questions about his strikeout tendencies. The Marlins liked him enough to add him to their 40-man roster in November of 2020, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft, but that profile has largely stayed in place.

He played 65 minor league games in 2021, mostly in Double-A, hitting nine home runs but striking out in 38.3% of his plate appearances. Last year, he played 99 games on the farm between Double-A and Triple-A, launching 22 bombs but was punched out at a 28.2% rate. He also got 81 trips to the plate in the majors but struck out in 39.5% of those. Here in 2023, he’s been in Triple-A all year. He has 19 home runs in 83 games but has gone down on strikes 39.9% of the time. His overall line of .211/.324/.438 this year amounts to a wRC+ of 87.

Encarnación is in his final option year and will be out of options next spring. It seems he was wearing out his welcome on the Marlins roster and has now been removed from it, as they quietly put him on waivers in recent days without any club putting in a claim. Since he’s shy of three years of service time and doesn’t have a previous career outright, he doesn’t have the right to elect free agency and will stick in the organization as non-roster depth. The Fish will now have an extra spot to make use of, with just over a week until the August 1 trade deadline.

Marlins Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Noble Meyer

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The Marlins have agreed to terms with their first-round pick Noble Meyer, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Meyer will get a signing bonus of $4.5MM, south of the $5.48MM slot value for the 10th overall pick.

Meyer, 18, is a right-handed pitcher that was selected out of Jesuit High School in Beaverton, Oregon. Coming into the draft, he was a consensus first-round talent, though with disagreement about where to rank him amid the top 30 available players. Baseball America placed him #7 in the class, MLB.com #8, ESPN #9, FanGraphs at #12 and Keith Law of The Athletic at #26.

The 6’5″ righty is noted for having a fastball that sits in the low 90s that has can get to the high 90s. His slider is considered his best secondary offering, with his changeup deemed a work in progress. Law explains that he thinks Meyer could have been a top-1o talent but his relatively lower ranking is due to the lower success rate of high school pitchers taken in the first round.

The Marlins have shown a tendency to stockpile pitching depth in recent years, frequently having enough viable arms that they show up in trade rumors. They finally pulled off a significant deal along those lines in the most recent offseason, trading Pablo López and a couple of prospects to the Twins for Luis Arraez. Bringing Meyer into the system will add to their overall pitching corps, though he’s likely a ways away from the reaching the majors given his young age.

Matt Barnes To Undergo Hip Surgery

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Marlins reliever Matt Barnes will undergo femoral acetabular impingement surgery on his left hip at the end of the month, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relays (on Twitter). He won’t be cleared to begin running or throwing for three months, so his season is almost certainly over.

The surgery also quite likely puts an end to Barnes’ tenure with Miami. Acquired in a trade that sent lefty Richard Bleier to the Red Sox, the former Boston closer was seen as a buy-low candidate by a Marlins club looking for high-leverage arms in the offseason. Barnes was an All-Star in 2021 and looked headed for a significant payday in free agency when he instead signed a two-year extension to remain in Boston. Things almost immediately went south after he put pen to paper on that $18.75MM deal. In the season’s final six weeks, he was rocked for a dozen runs in just 11 2/3 innings.

The Sox hoped Barnes would bounce back the following season, but things didn’t play out that way. A shoulder injury cost Barnes more than two months of the season, and while his 4.31 ERA when healthy was at least respectable, it’s a far cry from what the Sox hoped for when signing him to that two-year pact. Beyond that, Barnes’ 95.2 mph average fastball and 19.3% strikeout rate were both career-lows — a far cry from the 97 mph he averaged at his peak and the 37.8% strikeout rate he posted in 2021.

In Miami, Barnes pitched 21 1/3 but was tagged for a 5.48 ERA in that time. This year’s 93.6 mph average fastball is a career-low by a wide margin of 1.6 mph. His 7.7% swinging-strike rate is one of the lowest marks among relievers and about half the 14.9% he recorded at his best. The revelation of an injury hardly came as a major surprise given those stark declines, and it’s fair to wonder whether Barnes was ever pitching at 100% this season or whether he was simply trying to gut through the injury.

There’s an $8MM club option for the 2024 season on Barnes’ contract, and although the $2.25MM buyout effectively makes it a net $5.75MM decision, it’s still extremely unlikely the Marlins would pick that third year up. Given the extent of Barnes’ struggles in recent years and now the onset of a notable surgery, he’ll likely be bought out and head to free agency, where he’ll either be a candidate for a low-cost, incentive-laden one-year contract or perhaps even a minor league deal. The status of his recovery will play a large role in determining his earning power, and it obviously can’t be known at this time precisely how it’ll all play out.

The Trade That Landed NL’s All-Star Starter In Arizona

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The All-Star Game is soon to get underway. Kicking off the festivities on the mound: Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen and Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.

The two pitchers were acquired by their respective clubs at very different stages of their careers. Cole had established himself as arguably the sport’s best pitcher by the 2019-20 offseason. He’d join the Yankees on a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract that shattered the record for the largest pitching deal in MLB history. 519 innings of 3.19 ERA ball later, the Yankees are surely happy with that investment.

Gallen landed in Arizona well before he was established as an MLB starter. Originally drafted by the Cardinals, he was dealt to the Marlins as a prospect alongside Sandy Alcantara, Magneuris Sierra and Daniel Castano in the lopsided Marcell Ozuna trade over the 2017-18 offseason. Gallen spent a year and a half in the Miami system, reaching the big leagues in June ’19.

A rookie starter on a then-noncompetitive Miami club, Gallen wasn’t on many people’s radar as a viable trade candidate going into the 2019 deadline. The Fish and Diamondbacks ignored traditional competitive windows and lined up on the extremely rare swap of top young talents: a one-for-one deal that sent Gallen to Phoenix for Double-A middle infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Swapping highly-regarded prospects at positions of need is far more common in fan speculation than it is in practice. Organizations are typically reluctant to surrender quality controllable talent. Clubs liked those players enough to acquire and develop them in the first place; it’s only natural if teams tend to value their in-house talent more than other organizations might.

Going into the 2019 season, Chisholm was generally regarded as the superior prospect. The Bahamian infielder ranked 59th on Baseball America’s top 100 list and 32nd on Keith Law’s list (then at ESPN). His athleticism, switch-hitting ability and huge raw power made him a potential franchise middle infielder. Gallen was more generally perceived as a future strike-throwing #4 starter than a burgeoning ace.

Gallen flipped that script with a breakout 2019 campaign. He posted a 1.77 ERA over 14 Triple-A starts before his first call-up. He made seven starts with Miami, working to a 2.72 ERA with a strong 28.5% strikeout percentage in his first 36 2/3 frames. Arizona had to view Gallen as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter to make parting with Chisholm worthwhile.

They’ve been proven right in that evaluation. In parts of five seasons as a Diamondback, Gallen has worked to a 3.10 ERA through 539 1/3 innings. He’s striking out just over 27% of batters faced. The North Carolina product was a little walk-prone early in his career, but he has consistently cut into the free passes as he’s gotten more experience.

Only once has Gallen posted an ERA higher than this year’s 3.04 clip. His 4.30 mark in 2021 looks like a blip, as he followed up a career-low 2.54 last season with his All-Star first half. Of the 94 starters with 70+ innings, he’s in the top 25 in ERA (18th), strikeout rate (22nd at 26.5%) and SIERA (14th at 3.53).

Gallen has twice found himself on Cy Young ballots. He’s likely to land some support for a third season after picking up a deserved first All-Star selection. Gallen has been the clear staff ace for a resurgent Arizona club that went into the All-Star Break percentage points behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. He is eligible for arbitration for another two seasons.

While the trade leans in Arizona’s favor, Chisholm has tapped into a lot of the promise he’d shown as a minor leaguer. He connected on 14 home runs and swiped 12 bases in only 60 games last season, earning an All-Star nod of his own. Unfortunately, he couldn’t play in that game, as his campaign was ended on June 29 by a back injury.

The Fish moved Chisholm to center field to accommodate the acquisition of Luis Arraez over the offseason. Chisholm has gotten mixed reviews from public defensive metrics for his outfield performance. He’s hitting .246/.302/.443 with nine longballs and 14 steals over 183 trips to the dish this year. Injuries have again been a story, as he lost around a month to turf toe on his right foot and is currently on the injured list with an oblique strain.

While the repeated health questions are surely frustrating for Chisholm and the organization alike, he’s flashed the ability to be a franchise building block. Controllable through 2026, he figures to play an everyday role in South Florida for the next few seasons.

In spite of Chisholm’s two absences, Miami is 14 games over .500 and in possession of the National League’s top Wild Card spot. That’s in large part thanks to an excellent rotation. Miami’s starting staff would be better if Gallen were a part of it — every team’s would — but the Fish are as well suited as any club to surrender quality pitching for a potential impact position player. They took a similar approach last offseason, sending Pablo López to Minnesota for Arraez.

Overall, both clubs probably feel strongly about their evaluation of the young player they acquired four seasons ago. Gallen has been healthier and the more valuable player to this point, but Chisholm is one of the top hitters on a Marlins’ club that skews toward pitching. While trades like this don’t happen frequently, the surprising Gallen-Chisholm swap has been impactful for a pair of the NL’s upstart contenders.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Reinstate Johnny Cueto, Transfer Jonathan Davis To 60-Day IL

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The Marlins made a few roster moves today, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. Right-hander Johnny Cueto was reinstated from the 60-day injured list, with righty Sean Reynolds optioned to Triple-A in a corresponding move. To open a spot for Cueto on the 40-man roster, outfielder Jonathan Davis was transferred to the 60-day IL. Cueto will not rejoin the rotation initially, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

The Marlins signed Cueto, 37, in the offseason to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, which came in the form of a $6MM salary this year and a $2.5MM buyout on a $10.5MM club option for 2024. That deal came on the heels of a strong 2022 campaign wherein Cueto tossed 158 1/3 innings for the White Sox with a 3.35 ERA. The move initially seeded somewhat curious since the Fish already had a stacked rotation, but it was just over a week later that they flipped Pablo López and a couple of prospect to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez.

Cueto opened the season in the club’s rotation alongside Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers. However, he left his first start after recording just three outs due to right biceps tightness. He started a rehab assignment in early May, though that was shut down after just one appearance. Rehab assignments come with a 30-day maximum for pitchers, though they are sometimes halted due to renewed soreness or a new injury. He started a second assignment June 11 and the 30 days of that are now up, which prompted today’s moves.

However, it seems Cueto won’t be returned to the rotation, as mentioned above. In the 26 2/3 innings he’s thrown on his most recent rehab assignment, he allowed 27 earned runs, leading to a 9.11 ERA. He struck out just 11.1% of batters faced in that time. Reading the stat line on rehab assignments can be misleading, as pitchers might be more focused on mechanics and velocity as opposed to results. But it’s telling that the Marlins evidently aren’t willing to slot him back into the rotation.

Since Cueto’s been gone, there have been a few changes in the club’s starting mix. Cabrera and Rogers are each on the injured list as well, though Cabrera was recently sent out on a rehab assignment and could be an option shortly after the All-Star break. With those injuries, the club has given opportunities to pitchers like Braxton Garrett and Bryan Hoeing. Garrett has a 3.70 ERA while Hoeing is at 4.54.

Another wild card in this deck is Eury Pérez. The 20-year-old rookie came into the year as one of the top prospects in the league and has delivered on that hype as the Marlins were dealing with those injuries. He posted a 2.36 ERA through his first 11 starts but the club recently optioned him to the minors on account of workload concerns. Since he’s already set a personal high for innings pitched in a season, they want to tap the brakes a bit and save some gas for later in the year and perhaps the postseason.

With Rogers on the shelf and Pérez on ice, it seems the club will proceed with a rotation core of Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett and Hoeing for now, with Cabrera perhaps joining them just over the horizon, leaving Cueto in the bullpen for the time being. He could perhaps rejoin the rotation down the line if another injury pops up, though it will perhaps depend on the timing with the return of Pérez presumably coming at some point.

As for Davis, it’s not a shock to see him wind up on the 60-day IL. He recently required meniscus surgery and is expected to miss the next three to six months. This move means he will be ineligible to return until early September, which wasn’t in the cards anyway.

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