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Latest On Brewers’ Managerial Vacancy

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The Brewers are suddenly looking for a manager for the first time in almost a decade, with Craig Counsell’s stunning move to the Cubs yesterday. Some of the options they are considering as a replacement, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, are current Brewers bench coach Pat Murphy, Blue Jays bench coach Don Mattingly, Astros Bench coach Joe Espada, Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Astros hitting coach Troy Snitker and former player Rickie Weeks.

Counsell departing Milwaukee wasn’t totally unforeseen. He was on an expiring contract in 2023 and extension talks didn’t come to fruition. But with David Stearns moving on from the Brewers to become president of baseball operations for the Mets and then firing manager Buck Showalter, many assumed Counsell would follow him to Queens. But Counsell joining the division-rival Cubs was not foreseen or known to be on the table.

Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio spoke on the matter yesterday, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and it seems he was surprised as well. “When he first told me, I said, ‘Are you messing with me?’” Attanasio added that “It is what it is” and that the club intends to continue putting their best foot forward without Counsell. “We have a really good thing. I give Craig credit for helping to build that, and for adding all these coaches, all of whom have stayed. So we’re going to look for a manager who can continue having a terrific clubhouse culture and that can help us keep winning and hopefully get over the hump in the playoffs.”

As for the Mets, despite the generally spendthrift behavior of Steve Cohen in recent years, they apparently never got close to the $40MM over five years that Counsell secured from the Cubs. Per Andy Martino of SNY, there was a sense that his interest in coming to the Mets wasn’t actually that high and he was merely using them to drive up the bidding. That would track with his reported interest in resetting the market for managerial salaries. Perhaps he wasn’t especially willing to do that in Queens since he grew up in the Midwest and Chicago is a better fit for him, or perhaps the Mets were content to hire a manager with lesser demands, but the end result is that the Mets landed first-time manager Carlos Mendoza instead.

As for the Brewers’ immediate concerns in relation to this, though it may sting that Counsell joined a division rival instead of the Mets, the focus now will be on filling the void. It seems they weren’t terribly proactive while Counsell was still available, with Attanasio stating that he and general manager Matt Arnold “thought it was going to muddy things if we started interviews with third parties” but that Arnold has “conducted a couple of internal interviews, for what that’s worth.” That suggests they are still in the early stages of their search, with still a wide list of potential candidates being considered, as mentioned above.

Murphy, 65 this month, has a small amount of managerial experience. He was in the Padres’ organization in June of 2015 when Bud Black was fired as manager. Murphy got the gig on an interim basis for the second half of that season but Andy Green took over for the 2016 campaign. Murphy then came to the Brewers to serve as bench coach under Counsell and has garnered plenty of interest from clubs with managerial openings since, but has stayed in Milwaukee.

Mattingly, 63 in April, has plenty of experience as a bench boss. He was at the helm for the Dodgers from 2011 to 2015 and then for the Marlins from 2016 to 2022, before joining the Blue Jays as bench coach for the 2023 season.

Espada, 48, has coaching experience with the Marlins and Yankees but has been the bench coach of the Astros since the start of the 2018 season. He has been connected to various managerial gigs in the past few years but is still with the Astros, who just saw Dusty Baker step out of the skipper’s chair. It’s been speculated that Espada could take over in Houston but nothing is official there.

McCullough, 44 next month, has been the first base coach of the Dodgers since the 2021 campaign. He recently interviewed for the managerial opening in Cleveland but that position has now been filled by Stephen Vogt.

Snitker, 35 next month, is the son of Atlanta manager Brian Snitker. He has been co-hitting coach for the Astros for the past five seasons alongside Álex Cintrón.

Weeks, 41, played in the majors from 2003 to 2017, most of that in Milwaukee. He was hired by the Brewers for a player development role going into the 2022 season.

Dodgers Do Not Extend Qualifying Offer To J.D. Martinez

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The Dodgers are not extending $20.325MM qualifying offers to J.D. Martinez or Clayton Kershaw, per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times.

Martinez, now 36, signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Dodgers for 2023. He then had his best season in years, hitting 33 home runs and producing a line of .271/.321/.572. His 135 wRC+ indicated he was 35% better than the league average hitter.

A strong argument could have been made for Martinez to receive the QO in a vacuum, but what likely worked against him is the fact that he’s essentially a designated hitter only. The Dodgers are considered to be one of the top landing spots for Shohei Ohtani, who will be a designated hitter only in 2024 and will need significant time in that slot even if he returns to pitching in 2025. If the Dodgers extended the QO to Martinez, he may have accepted since it’s more than twice the salary he just made in 2023. Having both him and Ohtani on the same roster would be a particularly awkward fit since he has only played 12 innings in the field over the past two seasons combined.

As for Kershaw, the Dodgers have courteously decided not to give him a QO in each of the past two offseasons. Since he was reportedly deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring, the club neglected to give him the QO so that he could take his time to make such a decision. This winter, there’s even more uncertainty since the southpaw underwent shoulder surgery and has an uncertain timeline for a return to action.

In both cases, the lack of QO helps the player in free agency since receiving a QO has a negative effect on a player’s earning power. Being saddled with draft pick forfeiture will cause some clubs to lower how much they are willing to spend on a given player while some other will steer clear of such players completely. By avoiding the QO, they can each can avoid any such worries.

Dodgers Exercise Blake Treinen’s Club Option; Decline Daniel Hudson’s Option

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The Dodgers announced their full list of option decisions, including the previously-reported news that the club options on Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, and Alex Reyes were all declined.  L.A. also declined Daniel Hudson’s $6.5MM club option for the 2024 season, but the team is exercising its club option on reliever Blake Treinen.  Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports (via X) that Treinen’s club option is worth $1MM.

Treinen has pitched only five Major League innings since the start of the 2022 season, as the right-hander has battled shoulder problems that required a surgery almost exactly a year ago.  Treinen was able to start a rehab assignment last August but threw only 2 1/3 innings in the minors over three appearances.

Even after two lost years for Treinen, it’s still a pretty low-cost risk for the Dodgers to exercise their $1MM option on the 35-year-old.  The size of Treinen’s option wasn’t set in stone, as the terms of his May 2022 extension with the club dictated that the club option would be worth anywhere from $1MM to $7MM based on various health-related factors.  Since Treinen ended up not pitching at all in 2023, his option ended up clocking in at the lowest possible amount.

Hudson tore his left ACL in June 2022, which ended that season and kept him on the sidelines for almost a full year.  While he returned to pitch in three games this summer, Hudson then hit the injured list again due to an MCL sprain in his right knee, and he was also bothered by ankle tendinitis.  With these injuries hampering both his career and his quality of life over the last two years, Hudson has hinted that he might bring his 14-year MLB career to a close.

Dodgers To Decline Club Option On Joe Kelly

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The Dodgers won’t be exercising their $9.5MM club option on Joe Kelly’s services for the 2024 season, according to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (X link).  Kelly will instead collect a $1MM buyout and enter the free agent market.

Previously a Dodger from 2019-21, Kelly made his return to Los Angeles after the White Sox dealt the reliever and Lance Lynn to the Dodgers as part of a five-player swap at the trade deadline.  Forearm inflammation sidelined Kelly for over a month, but his limited (10 1/3 innings over 11 games) work with the Dodgers was a success, as he posted a 1.74 ERA.  Kelly struck out a whopping 47.5% of batters faced in those 10 1/3 frames, which helped cover up a high 15% walk rate.

For the 2023 season as a whole, Kelly posted a 4.12 ERA over 39 1/3 innings for Chicago and Los Angeles, with strong strikeout (35.7%) and grounder (58%) rates, even if his 10.7% walk rate was nothing special.  Kelly’s work with the Dodgers helped get his overall numbers back in line with the improved peripherals he posted with the White Sox, but on the down side, the veteran reliever had another injury-shortened year.  Kelly made three different trips to the IL, with his late-season forearm problem coming after earlier IL stints for a groin strain and elbow inflammation.

This injury history might be why L.A. chose to pass on Kelly’s option, even though the 35-year-old has shown that he can still be an effective reliever.  Declining the option doesn’t necessarily mean that the Dodgers won’t still look to retain Kelly at a lower salary, though now Los Angeles will be bidding against other teams looking for bullpen help.  Kelly’s last trip to free agency earned him a two-year, $17MM deal from the White Sox, and there’s a decent chance the right-hander can still land another multi-year contract, even if two injury-marred years won’t help his case.

Previous reports have indicated that the Dodgers also declined club options on Lynn and Alex Reyes, and it doesn’t seem like Daniel Hudson or Blake Treinen will have their club options exercised given their injury woes.  Max Muncy was the only other Dodger with a club option for 2024, but L.A. made a longer commitment by signing the infielder to an extension.

Dodgers To Decline Club Option On Alex Reyes

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The Dodgers are expected to decline their $3MM club option on the services of right-hander Alex Reyes for the 2024 campaign, instead opting to pay the $100K buyout on the option per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya. The club’s decision is hardly a surprise, as Reyes last pitched in the majors back in 2021.

The right-hander’s talent has never been in doubt, as he sports a career 2.86 ERA and 3.87 FIP in the big leagues since making his debut in 2016 and made an All Star appearance as a reliever back in 2021. Unfortunately, Reyes has simply not been able to remain on the field often enough to fully reach his potential; despite making his big league debut nine years ago, the righty has accrued just 145 innings of work in the big leagues due to an assortment of long-term injuries over the years. In addition to missing the entire 2017, 2022, and 2023 campaigns, Reyes managed just seven innings of work between 2018 and 2019.

Most recently, Reyes underwent shoulder surgery back in June and is not expected to return to a big league mound until mid-way through the 2024 campaign at the earliest. Reyes is headed into his age-29 season next year, and could once again be a candidate for a contract that offers a guaranteed year with a club option similar to the $1.1MM pact he landed with the Dodgers on this past offseason. Of course, now that Reyes hasn’t pitched in the majors in two-and-a-half seasons, it’s at least fair to wonder if he’ll be limited to minor league pacts this winter.

Reyes is far from the only injured relief option the Dodgers have to decide on in the coming days, as option decisions on both Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson are set to come due as well. Like Reyes, Treinen was unable to pitch in the majors this year following shoulder surgery, while Hudson managed to return for three innings before returning to the injured list with a knee sprain. The Dodgers hold a $6.5MM club option on Hudson, who is undecided on whether he’ll continue to pitch in 2024, that’s likely to be declined. Meanwhile, the option on Treinen’s services is set to be valued at somewhere between $1MM and $7MM, though given the veteran hurler didn’t pitch in 2023, it’s expected to land toward the lower end of that range.

Clayton Kershaw Undergoes Shoulder Surgery; Hoping For Summer Return

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Left-hander Clayton Kershaw announced on Instagram that he underwent a surgical procedure this morning to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. He says that he is “hopeful to return to play at some point next summer.”

Kershaw, 35, had a strange campaign in 2023. He had made 16 starts through the end of June with typically strong results, holding an ERA of 2.55 at that time. He was placed on the injured list in early July due to some shoulder soreness. It didn’t seem especially concerning at that time, with the hope seeming to be that the All-Star break would allow him to miss just one or two turns through the rotation.

However, a couple of weeks later, there seemed to be some confusion around the issue. He underwent an MRI in the middle of July and wasn’t activated from the IL, although he wasn’t in any pain. “I feel completely fine. The shoulder feels good,” Kershaw said at the time. “I’ve just been told it has to rest. It’s a weird deal. I’ve never had anything like it, to the point where, like I’m gonna go play catch today and throw it as hard as I can, and they say it needs to rest. It’s just weird, honestly. I don’t know what to make of it. But I’m just gonna have to listen to [doctors].”

He was eventually activated in early August, with more confusion to come. His results continued to be strong, as he posted an ERA of 2.23 in his final eight starts of the year. But he was clearly working with diminished stuff. While he averaged above 91 MPH on his fastball prior to that IL stint, it was down to 90.2 MPH in August and 88.6 MPH in September. His slider also lost a few ticks as the season wore on. Although he was able to continue pitching well in the regular season, the wheels finally came off in the playoffs. Kershaw was lit up in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks, allowing six earned runs while only recording one out.

It seems Kershaw finally got some answers from the medical community and went under the knife today. While solving the mystery around his ailment provides some clarity, it seems there’s plenty of uncertainty ahead. This appears to be the first time the phrase “gleno-humeral” has appeared on the pages of MLBTR, suggesting this isn’t a particularly common procedure to be working back from. Kershaw has also had plenty of other ailments in the recent parts of his career. His 131 2/3 innings pitched in 2023 were the most he’s logged since 2019, spending time on the IL in recent years due to back stiffness, left elbow inflammation, left forearm discomfort, right SI joint inflammation, low back pain and the recent shoulder soreness.

Even without the health issues, Kershaw has gone into the past two offseasons with an uncertain path forward. It was seen by many that he was deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. In both cases, he returned to the Dodgers on a one-year deal, with a $17MM salary in 2022 and $20MM this past year. Last month, he again expressed uncertainty about his future going into free agency once more.

The Dodgers opted against issuing Kershaw a qualifying offer in those two years, though he would have deserved one based on his performance. As a sign of respect to the long-tenured player, they afforded him the freedom to take his time making a decision, whereas issuing a QO would have required Kershaw accept or decline within a few days of receiving it. They were presumably planning the same course of action this winter but this surgery would seemingly take the QO off the table even if they were considering it.

More information will likely trickle out over the winter, but the fact that Kershaw is “hopeful” of returning to play in the summer suggests that it’s not a guarantee. Perhaps he will spend some time rehabbing and trying to get healthy before signing a new contract, though that’s entirely speculative.

For the Dodgers, they likely have to proceed under the assumption that they can’t count on Kershaw, though president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman previously stated they would welcome him back. Beyond the fact that he’s not officially on the team anymore, it’s not certain he will be able to rejoin them even if he were willing to do so. In addition to Kershaw, Julio Urías and Lance Lynn are now free agents, with the club declining an option on the latter today. Tony Gonsolin could miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, while Dustin May’s flexor tendon surgery should keep him out for at least the first half of 2024.

That leaves the Dodgers’ on-paper rotation with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from his own TJS, in the top spot. He is followed by guys with very limited experience, such as Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough, though he might wind up non-tendered, the same way the Rays cut him loose a year ago.

Though the Kershaw news may complicate things, the Dodgers do have plenty of money to work with and figure to be active in all levels of free agency. The top of the market features names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, though there are plenty of other intriguing names from Sonny Gray to Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty and many more.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Report: MLB Grants Yariel Rodriguez Free Agency

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Right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez has officially been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, reports Francys Romero (X link). He is now free to sign with an MLB team.

Rodriguez became one of the more intriguing options on the pitching market when he was granted a release from his contract with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons a month ago. He has been conducting showcases for MLB clubs in the few weeks since but was barred from officially signing with a major league team until today. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll sign imminently, of course, but this removes the procedural hurdle he still needed to clear.

A native of Cuba, Rodriguez turns 27 in March. That’s atypically young for a free agent pitcher. He worked out of the bullpen over parts of three seasons with the Dragons. Rodriguez had a dominating showing in 2022, when he pitched to a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over 54 2/3 innings. He worked as a starter for his home country during the World Baseball Classic. Once that event concluded, Rodriguez decided not to report back to the Dragons. He sat out the remainder of the 2023 season — the team placed him on the restricted list — before his camp secured his release.

MLB teams figure to have differing evaluations on Rodriguez’s viability as a starter. He’s an intriguing arm with promising stuff and success at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported last month that the Rays were among 15 teams with scouts in attendance for one of Rodriguez’s recent workouts in the Dominican Republic. This afternoon, Romero listed (on X) 10 clubs that had shown interest in the hurler: the Astros, Yankees, Rangers, Pirates, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Phillies, White Sox, Mets and Giants.

Dodgers Decline Option On Lance Lynn

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The Dodgers have declined their club option on right-hander Lance Lynn, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. They will pay him a $1MM buyout and send him to free agency instead of retaining him with an $18MM salary for 2024.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise, as Lynn just wrapped up the worst season of his career. He made 32 starts in 2023 between the White Sox and the Dodgers, switching teams in a trade prior to the deadline. His 23.6% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate were both around league average, but he was victimized by the long ball. He allowed an incredible 44 fly balls to go over the fence this past season, the most of any pitcher in the league and easily the highest tally of his career. Despite those struggles, the Dodgers’ rotation had been decimated by injuries and they sent Lynn to the mound in the playoffs. He started Game 3 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks with two scoreless innings but allowed four home runs in the third, getting pulled before finishing that inning.

The Dodgers need starting pitching next year but it’s understandable they didn’t want to commit $17MM to Lynn just as the offseason is kicking off. After his poor results this year, he will likely have to settle for a lower salary than that. He may be able to top that number in total guarantee if he can find a multi-year deal, as even back-end veteran types can often get to eight figures on an annual basis.

Though the 2023 season was obviously rough and he turns 37 in May, Lynn will still have appeal as a bounceback candidate. He has a career ERA of 3.74 in a career that dates back to 2011. In each of the four seasons prior to 2023, he kept his ERA under 4.00. In that 2019 to 2022 stretch, he made 95 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate.

Veteran starters can often find decent contracts for themselves, even when the expectations of their production have waned. Zack Greinke got $13MM from the Royals going into 2022 and another $8.5MM going into 2023, his age-38 and age-39 seasons. Corey Kluber got $10MM from the Red Sox prior to 2023, even with questions around his health and effectiveness. 43-year-old Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates for 2023. Perhaps some club thinks they can get Lynn back on track or merely have him serve as an innings-eater, but he should be able to find a decent contract regardless.

As for the Dodgers, they go into the winter with plenty of question marks in their rotation. Lynn is now heading into free agency, joining Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw. The latter has re-signed with the Dodgers many times but is slated for an uncertain road back from shoulder surgery. That leaves Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, as well as a batch of guys with limited experience like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone and Michael Grove. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough in the mix but he’s a non-tender candidate.

The club has plenty of payroll space to work with and will likely be very active in free agency. They are expected to pursue two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, though he won’t be pitching in 2024. The other top names on the pitching market will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, with many others also available.

Dodgers Sign Max Muncy To Two-Year Extension

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The Dodgers announced they’ve signed infielder Max Muncy to a two-year, $24MM extension. The deal also includes a $10MM club option for 2026. The contract overwrites a $14MM option that L.A. had on Muncy’s services for next season.

A client of Hub Sports Management, Muncy will reportedly receive a $5MM signing bonus. He’ll make a $7MM salary next season and $12MM in 2025, while the deal includes additional bonuses based on his plate appearance totals. The contract has a $12MM average annual value.

Muncy, 33, has spent the past six seasons in Los Angeles. Originally an unceremonious addition via minor league contract, he quickly developed into one of the Dodgers’ most important hitters. The lefty-swinging infielder has reached the 35-homer mark in four of the five full schedules. He popped 36 longballs this past season, tying with Jorge Soler for 12th in the majors in that regard.

That power production comes with one of the sport’s more extreme offensive approaches. Muncy is a prototypical three true outcomes hitter. He pairs the home runs with an extremely patient plate approach. The deep counts translate to plenty of walks, as he has drawn a free pass in 15% of his career plate appearances. Yet he’s also prone to strikeouts and runs very low averages on balls in play thanks to a fly-ball heavy swing.

As a result, Muncy has one of the lower batting averages among everyday players. He hit .212/.333/.475 through 579 trips to the plate this past season. That’s on the heels of a .196/.329/.384 showing. Over the last two years, the two-time All-Star sports a .204/.331/.430 line in a little more than 1100 trips to the plate.

That isn’t quite as impressive as Muncy’s production over his first few seasons in Southern California. The overall offensive production is still clearly above-average, however. Muncy’s 118 wRC+ this year indicates he was 18 percentage points better than an average batter. The front office clearly values his contributions, as they’ve now signed him to three separate extensions.

Muncy has a decent amount of experience at first and second base. He spent the entire ’23 campaign at third base, logging a personal-high 1052 innings there. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average estimated he was between three and five runs below par at the hot corner. That’s hardly disastrous but aligns with his reputation as a bat-first player.

As he gets into his mid-30s, that profile seems likely to skew increasingly towards offense. Whether Muncy sees another 120+ starts at third base may well be determined by the Dodgers’ subsequent offseason moves. Freddie Freeman is locked in at first base. The club should welcome Gavin Lux back from the ACL tear that cost him all of 2023, likely securing second base. Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch and Chris Taylor are among the possibilities for third base reps, although Muncy is clearly above that group on the depth chart.

The designated hitter role will be one of the stories of the offseason. L.A. will see J.D. Martinez hit free agency in the coming days, although they could make him a qualifying offer. They’re sure to make a run at Shohei Ohtani, a potential addition that would push Muncy back to third base.

Even with this deal in place, the Dodgers have plenty of breathing room financially. Roster Resource projected the 2024 payroll around $127MM before this extension. That’ll sit a little under $140MM now, well below this year’s $223MM Opening Day estimate. The $12MM AAV pushes their luxury tax projection to roughly $155MM. That’s more than $80MM south of next year’s $237MM base threshold.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Dodgers and Muncy were seriously discussing a two-year extension. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first suggested the deal was agreed upon. Murray had the specific salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

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