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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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A relatively quiet offseason a year ago didn’t stop the Dodgers from continuing their incredible run of regular season success. But after another disappointing playoff performance, perhaps they will be more aggressive this winter. There are many ways to do that, but the big question is whether or not they land the most unique free agent in history.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Mookie Betts, IF/OF: $295MM through 2032
  • Freddie Freeman, 1B: $108MM through 2027
  • Chris Taylor, 1B/OF: $30MM through 2025 (includes buyout on ’26 option)
  • Miguel Rojas, IF: $6MM through 2024 (includes buyout on ’25 option)
  • Tony Gonsolin, RHP: $5.4MM through 2024 (eligible for two more arbitration years after that)
  • Austin Barnes, C: $3.5MM through 2024 (includes ’25 option with no buyout)

Option Decisions

  • Club holds $18MM option on RHP Lance Lynn with $1MM buyout
  • Club holds $14MM option on IF Max Muncy with no buyout
  • Club holds $9.5MM option on RHP Joe Kelly with $1MM buyout
  • Club holds $6.5MM option on RHP Daniel Hudson with no buyout
  • Club holds $3MM buyout on RHP Alex Reyes with $100K buyout
  • Club holds option between $1MM and $7MM on Blake Treinen, depending on health

2024 financial commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $98.9MM
Total future commitments, assuming Muncy is the only option triggered: $461.9MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Yarbrough, Almonte, Suero

Free Agents

The Dodgers had a fairly quiet offseason after 2022, limiting themselves to one-year free agents like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez. That led some observers to predict that they could be dethroned in the West by the Padres, who had a far louder winter, or perhaps an upstart Diamondbacks club. But the Dodgers had yet another excellent season, winning 100 games for the fourth straight full season and fifth out of the last six. They won the West division title for the 10th time out of the last 11 seasons, with their only second-place finish being the 106-win club in 2021 getting edged out by the 107-win Giants.

There’s no question they’ve been the most consistently good regular season club over the past decade-plus, but the postseason is another matter. All of those playoff berths have resulted in just one title, which was in the shortened 2020 season, and they’ve been quickly bounced out of the NLDS in each of their past two trips.

Perhaps that will lead the club to make some more noise this winter, which they have the ability to do. They’ve been one of the top spenders in the past decade but have generally avoided long-term commitments. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the only players under contract beyond 2025 and each of those two are continuing to play at MVP-caliber levels, meaning there’s almost no dead money on the books.

In terms of 2024, Roster Resource estimates their current payroll around $126MM, which includes the MLBTR arbitration projections. A few non-tenders could drop that closer to $120MM, particularly if they let go of Yarbrough, who was cut by the Rays at this time a year ago. Their luxury tax figure would be under $140MM if they did indeed cut Yarbrough. That gives the Dodgers plenty of room to be aggressive this winter, as they have frequently run Opening Day payrolls in the $240-280MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to reset their luxury tax status after paying the tax in the past two years, they could add about $100MM before getting near this year’s $237MM base threshold.

The Dodgers are likely to be one of many teams drawing up two distinct offseason plans, one that involves signing Shohei Ohtani and one that doesn’t. The most unique player in baseball history is about to become the most unique free agent in baseball history, with many pegging the Dodgers the most likely landing spot. Ohtani has frequently mentioned a desire to win as a priority and the Dodgers would have a compelling case in that department.

Of course, Ohtani will surely want to be compensated at a fair rate as well, but there’s nothing preventing the Dodgers from doing that. As mentioned, they have plenty of spending room both for the coming year and well into the future. It has been speculated that Ohtani might lean towards a West Coast club, since that was his preference when first coming over from Japan. At that time, he was limited by the amateur bonus pool system and was only going to be able to pull in a few million bucks, meaning that such a preference wouldn’t impact his earning power. Now he will be motivated to express an interest in any club, as expanding his market will help him secure the biggest possible guarantee. But if he privately holds onto that West Coast preference, it would only help the Dodgers.

It’s possible there are other factors that could work against them, at least speculatively. Ohtani hasn’t interacted with English-language media very much during his time as an Angel, at least compared to other superstars in the game. It has been speculated that moving to a bigger market club would make it harder for him to maintain that relative spotlight reluctance. Whether that’s something that actually matters to him can’t really be known.

There’s also the question of Ohtani’s leash to continue pitching deeper into his career. There’s no precedent for anything Ohtani does and different clubs will probably have different ideas about how long they want him to continue with the full two-way workload. Now that he’s coming off a second career Tommy John surgery, or something close to it, that only raises further questions about how he will hold up into his 30s. Some clubs may want to give him free rein to start for as long as he wants, others might have ideas about when a move to the bullpen will be warranted or when it would be time to stop pitching altogether. If the pitching eventually needs to stop, some clubs may view him as a viable outfielder, a position he played in Japan. Others might prefer to just keep him as a designated hitter as he ages.

It’s can’t really be known how the Dodgers view these matters, but these are things that will likely come up in offseason discussions with Ohtani and his reps. Ohtani is hitting free agency ahead of his age-29 season, two years younger than Aaron Judge was before his free agency. Since Judge was able to secure a nine-year deal, Ohtani will very likely be able to get into the double digits. Even though he’ll be a DH only in 2024, teams will undoubtedly be enticed by his potential return to being a two-way player, as well as the international marketing opportunities he can provide. But in the short-term, the free agency of Martinez means that the Dodgers have an open DH spot they can easily slot Ohtani into.

Gauging Ohtani’s interest in being a Dodger figures to be the number one priority for the club, with everything else following from there. But there will be some formalities that have to come first, with a large number of club options on the table. Each of Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen and Alex Reyes missed all or most of 2023 due to injuries and should have their options declined. The Dodgers are generally unafraid of banking on their injured players but would likely work out new deals with any of this group they wanted to take another chance on.

The net $8.5MM decision on Joe Kelly is borderline, but the club would likely prefer to keep that powder dry for now, with the ability to circle back to Kelly or someone similar later in the winter. Max Muncy is a lock to have his option picked up, despite the low batting average and high strikeouts. He launched 36 home runs this year and walked in 14.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a wRC+ of 118 and 2.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. Though he was able to nudge the option price up to $14MM by reaching plate appearance escalators, it’s still a bargain. Lance Lynn is likely to be bought out after posting a 5.73 earned run average this year.

The Dodgers will be looking to replace some thump in their lineup, whether they sign Ohtani or not, even though Betts and Freeman will each be back. Martinez and Jason Heyward each had solid bounceback years, but both are now set to return to free agency. Martinez has yet to receive a qualifying offer in his career and the Dodgers could offer him one, but there are reasons they may not do so. Martinez settled for a one-year, $10MM to join the Dodgers a year ago and this year’s qualifying offer is expected to go over $20MM. That kind of pay raise might be tempting for a 36-year-old designated hitter. But the Dodgers may not want to risk that since players who accept a qualifying offer can’t be traded until June 15. Having both Martinez and Ohtani on the same club isn’t possible with just one DH slot, so the Dodgers probably can’t take a chance by putting the offer in front of Martinez.

But Martinez will likely want to wait on Ohtani before deciding where to sign, since many clubs may have him as a backup option. That means the Dodgers may be able to circle back to him if they don’t end up landing Ohtani. Other players who may be in a similar boat include Jorge Soler, Brandon Belt or old friends Justin Turner and Joc Pederson.

Replacing Heyward may not be as necessary. Betts spent a lot of time on the infield this year with Gavin Lux suffering a season-ending knee injury in Spring Training. If Lux is healthy enough to rejoin the middle infield next year, Betts can go back to being a primary right fielder next to center fielder James Outman. Left field will still be a question mark, but the club would have some internal options there with Chris Taylor, Andy Pages and Jonny Deluca some of them. It might be possible to fit Heyward in there, but he may have cleaner paths to playing time elsewhere.

On the infield, Freeman and Muncy should have the corners largely spoken for. The middle infield is a bit less certain, with the aforementioned Lux situation the major unanswered question. The club was planning to give him a shot to be an everyday shortstop before his injury. Whether that plan is back on the table remains to be seen. If he is able to secure the shortstop job, he could push Miguel Rojas to second base or perhaps into a depth role. Or perhaps Lux sticks at the less-demanding second base spot going forward. There are also prospects looming, with Michael Busch and Jorbit Vivas some of those potentially in the mix for the keystone. Since the free agent market doesn’t have too much to offer anyway, the Dodgers might stick with internal candidates here as well, though the trade market theoretically offers players like Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India or Brendan Donovan.

The catching spot seems fine with Will Smith having another strong season in 2023. Austin Barnes wasn’t great at the plate in 2023 but is already under contract and still got good marks for his framing. Cutting him loose and signing a veteran backup wouldn’t be shocking, but it wouldn’t be an ideal use of resources when the club has bigger priorities elsewhere.

Outside of the Ohtani question, the big focus for the Dodgers this winter will be the starting pitching. This year saw the pitching injuries pile up, and Julio Urías become unavailable due to a domestic violence situation, with the diminished rotation arguably serving as the club’s unraveling. They tried to patch things together by trading for Lynn, Yarbrough and Eduardo Rodriguez, but E-Rod used his no-trade clause to stay with the Tigers while Lynn wasn’t able to salvage his rough season as hoped. The club can keep Lynn around but $17MM for the age-37 season of a pitcher who just allowed 44 homers is fairly steep.

Both Urías and Clayton Kershaw are set to become free agents, and some of the pitching injuries will carry over into next year. Dustin May will likely miss the first half after undergoing flexor tendon surgery in July. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John later in the year and will likely miss the entire 2024 season. That leaves the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own Tommy John, atop their depth chart. Bobby Miller likely earned a spot after posting a 3.76 ERA in 22 starts in 2023. Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone could compete for jobs as well but it’s arguable that none of them did enough to be guaranteed a gig.

That could position the Dodgers to seek out as many as three starting pitchers this offseason. One of them could be Kershaw coming back, though that’s become an annual question in recent years. The two most recent offseasons have seen him deciding between returning to the Dodgers, joining his hometown Rangers or retiring. Though he eventually returned to the Dodgers in each instance, it seems there’s less confidence in that path this year. His velocity dipped as he battled shoulder issues this year and he indicated he might take a few months before making his choice about 2024.

Even if the Dodgers land Ohtani, he won’t help the rotation since he won’t be pitching in 2024. The Dodgers have the spending capacity to play at any level of free agency, but it’s possible that their level of spending in this aisle is contingent on what happens with Ohtani and Kershaw. The top of the market will feature guys like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola, with each of them looking at nine-figure deals. Then there’s also solid guys at a lower tier, such as Seth Lugo or old friend Kenta Maeda, as well as bounceback candidates like Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty or Frankie Montas.

The trade market is another area the club could explore, though this path is a little trickier. Brandon Woodruff is out for most or perhaps all of 2024, which might mean the Brewers take Corbin Burnes off the market. Other theoretical trade candidates may be hard to pry loose as well, with the White Sox seemingly hoping to contend and therefore likely holding Dylan Cease. Perhaps Shane Bieber can be freed from Cleveland, but his stock is down after a bit of an uninspiring year and a late-season battle with elbow inflammation. The Pirates are probably looking to hold Mitch Keller as they try to build off some encouraging performances in 2023.

The bullpen is likely less of a priority, with plenty of strong arms still under club control next year. Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, Victor Gonzálezand Alex Vesia all had good results in one way or another and each can be retained via affordable arbitration salaries. Adding a couple of veteran free agents to the group should be on the table, but the level of aggressiveness will likely be dictated by how the other priorities are addressed.

All signs point towards a bigger offseason for the Dodgers this year, though that could take a few different shapes. Maybe they can sign Ohtani or maybe they can’t. Maybe Kershaw comes back or maybe he doesn’t. Whether those guys are involved or not, the club will need to add to the rotation and the lineup. But there may not be any club with as much spending capacity this winter, meaning there’s a good chance this offseason looks very different from the last one.

In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Dodgers-centric chat on 10-19-23. Click here to read the transcript.

NL Notes: Brewers, Dodgers, Dombrowski

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Back in May, Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio discussed the club’s desire to secure state funding for renovations to American Family Field, the club’s stadium in Milwaukee which is publicly owned and leased to the Brewers. At the time Attanasio mentioned that public officials in the state had indicated that they hope to extend the club’s lease at the stadium, which currently runs through 2030, through at least 2050.

Those efforts passed a significant milestone yesterday, as Jessie Opoien and Tom Daykin of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that the Wisconsin state assembly voted 69-27 in support of a measure that would provide $546MM in funding for stadium renovations and improvements, to be paid both through the aforementioned 2050 date. $411MM of that total funding bill would fall to the state of Wisconsin, while the remaining $135MM would be covered by Milwaukee county and the city of Milwaukee. Opoien and Daykin add that the Brewers would provide an additional $100MM toward the financing plan.

As noted in the article, American Family Field is owned by the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District, an agency created by the state that leases the ballpark out to the Brewers. Per the terms of the lease, the state is required to provide the majority of the funding for what Opoien and Daykin describe as “long-term maintenance and renovations” of the park, with winterizing the ballpark noted as one possible renovation under consideration. The pair go on to note that the plan stipulates that the club will be required to designate one home game per month of the regular season as a discount day for residents of Wisconsin.

Passage through the state assembly is far from the final hurdle for the deal, though the bills passed have the support of the relevant executives in Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, Milwaukee mayor Cavalier Johnson, and county executive David Crowley. The next step in the process is for the package to secure passage through the state senate, which Opoien an Daykin note is likely to require changes to help raise money for the funding plan. Still, the deal’s progress is surely encouraging for Brewers fans after rumors of potential relocation following the expiration of the club’s current lease in 2030 began to percolate back in August.

More from around the NL…

  • While discussing the organization’s recent end-of-season press conference, Jack Harris of the LA Times noted that the Dodgers explored trades for right-hander Pablo Lopez and left-hander Jordan Montgomery “over the last year,” though no deal came together with Harris noting that the costs of acquiring either pitcher would’ve been beyond what the Dodgers considered to be fair value. The fact that LA recently pursued a deal for Montgomery is hardly a surprise, given they had previously been reported to have interest in his services at the trade deadline. Lopez, however, is a more noteworthy mention as the last rumors connecting the right-hander, who was shipped from the Marlins to the Twins last offseason, were from the 2022 trade deadline. The Dodgers, of course, saw their starting rotation break down throughout the year due to injuries and under-performance, culminating in Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn combining to allow 13 runs over just 4 2/3 innings of work across their three starts during the NLDS as the club was swept out of the postseason at the hands of the Diamondbacks.
  • Phillies principal owner John Middleton spoke to WEEI’s Rob Bradford recently regarding the club’s pursuit of current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who the club hired following the shortened 2020 season. The hiring has been an unmitigated success to this point, with the Phillies currently ahead 2-0 in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks and well on their way to a possible second consecutive World Series appearance under Dombrowski’s guidance. At the time, however, Middleton notes that Dombrowski was reluctant to leave his position with the Nashville Stars group, which hopes to lure a potential expansion team to Nashville in the near future. Per Middleton, Dombrowski’s initial contract included a clause that allowed him to depart the Phillies in the event that Nashville was successful in luring an expansion team during his tenure in Philadelphia. Dombrowski extended with the club last offseason through the 2027 campaign, though it’s unclear if his new contract contains a similar clause.

Andrew Friedman On Roberts, Kershaw, Offseason Plans

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Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman met with the media (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) on Tuesday afternoon, alongside GM Brandon Gomes. The two executives discussed the disappointing conclusion to another Dodgers season, potential changes to the major league coaching staff, and the team’s offseason plans.

Speaking on his ballclub’s unceremonious exit from the playoffs, Friedman could not deny that the words “organizational failure” ring true once again (he used the same phrase last season). Putting it bluntly, he said, “Our goal was to win 11 games in October, and we didn’t win one.” Indeed, Diamondbacks hitters trounced the Dodgers pitching staff in Game 1 of the NLDS, and L.A.’s own powerful offense rarely came through. Notably, Friedman also used the term “organizational failure” to avoid blaming any specific people or groups of people for his team’s poor performance. “Organizational failure means it’s on all of us,” he explained.

On that note, Friedman left no doubt that manager Dave Roberts and his entire coaching staff would be back in 2024, confirming that there won’t be any changes in the clubhouse. “I think [Dave Roberts] and our coaching staff did an incredible job this year,” he said, “And none of us did an incredible job in those three games versus Arizona.”

Unsurprisingly, Friedman says his top priority this offseason will be starting pitching. That means assessing internal options as well as considering potential trades and free agent signings. Dodgers’ starters struggled in 2023, posting an uncharacteristic 4.57 ERA and 4.37 SIERA. Things became especially bleak toward the end of the year; ten different pitchers started a game for the Dodgers in September, combining for a 4.87 ERA. The team had no shortage of depth, but too few reliable options.

Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías will be free agents after the season, as will Lance Lynn – presuming the Dodgers decline his $18MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout. On top of that, Tony Gonsolin will be out for most, if not all, of the 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. Dustin May’s status for next season is also up in the air, after the righty underwent flexor tendon surgery in July.

That leaves Bobby Miller, who just completed his rookie season, and Walker Buehler, who hasn’t pitched since June 2022, as the only healthy, established starters remaining in the Dodgers rotation. The team has several young starting pitchers on the roster, including Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, and Gavin Stone, but none with more than 100 innings of big league experience. Friedman expressed confidence in Miller and Buehler during his press conference, but he understands the need to augment the rotation.

As for Kershaw, Friedman made it clear that the Dodgers are “absolutely” interested in bringing the superstar pitcher back for another season. However, the ten-time All-Star hasn’t yet told the team if he plans to return. “I think he and [his wife] Ellen are going to take some time right now and assess,” the team president said (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). “The ball’s squarely in their court.”

In addition to starting pitching, Friedman will also look to address position player needs during the offseason. The Dodgers had an excellent offense in 2023, finishing second in baseball in OPS and runs scored. That said, designated hitter J.D. Martinez, utility man Enrique Hernández, and outfielders Jason Heyward and David Peralta will all be free agents after the conclusion of the World Series. The team will need to replace Martinez and Heyward’s production in particular. In addition, the Dodgers might look to add a new infielder so Mookie Betts can return to a regular role in right field.

Gomes didn’t speak as much as his boss, but he did confirm a report that he declined to interview for the GM opening in Boston. “I’m very flattered and appreciate the interest,” he said (per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register). “But I love it here, and my family loves it here. I’m passionate about this organization and solely focused on winning multiple championships here.”

21 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the offseason quickly approaching, a number of players elect minor league free agency on a regular basis. Separate from MLB free agents, who reach free agency five days after the World Series by accumulating six years of service time in the big leagues, eligible minor league players can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season comes to a close. Each of these players were outrighted off of their organization’s 40-man roster at some point during the season and either have been outrighted previously in their career or have the service time necessary to reach free agency since they were not added back to their former club’s rosters. For these players, reaching free agency is the expected outcome, and there will surely be more in the coming weeks. Here at MLBTR, we’ll provide occasional updates as players continue to elect minor league free agency.

Here is the next batch, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Quick Hits: Vogt, Giants, Braves, Phillips, Red Sox

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Mariners bullpen and quality control coach Stephen Vogt will interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy this week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  The Giants have thus far interviewed only internal candidates about the manager’s job, yet Vogt isn’t exactly a true outsider, having played with the Giants during the 2019 season.  Vogt has plenty of other ties to the Bay Area, as he also played six seasons with the Athletics, and hails from Visalia, California (about a four-hour drive from San Francisco).

Vogt only retired from playing after the 2022 season, and his one season on the Mariners’ staff represents his only coaching experience.  That said, Vogt has been regarded as a future manager for years, so it isn’t surprising seeing him immediately pop up as part of a managerial search even though he is relatively lacking in coaching experience.  All of the candidates linked to the Giants thus far would also be first-time MLB skippers, so clearly the front office isn’t prioritizing a long resume when considering its next dugout hire.

Over 10 Major League seasons, Vogt appeared in 794 games with six different teams.  The big majority (528) of that action came with the A’s, but the Giants rank second on Vogt’s game list with 99 games played.  Vogt also briefly played with the Brewers in 2017, so speculatively speaking, it is possible the Brewers might give him some consideration if Craig Counsell doesn’t return as the manager in 2024.

Some more items from around the baseball world…

  • Some flame-throwing relief help figures to be a target for the Braves this winter, as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that only two bullpens in baseball threw fewer pitches of 96mph or higher than the Braves did in 2023.  Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson contributed a big chunk of the high-velocity pitches Atlanta did throw, yet both relievers will be free agents.  With Jesse Chavez also a free agent and Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates, and Brad Hand all on club or mutual options, “the situation allows the Braves to rebuild their bullpen, if they want,” Toscano writes.  Rookie Daysbel Hernandez could be an option on the high-velo front, as Atlanta thought enough of Hernandez’s potential to include him on their ALDS roster even though injury limited the righty to 3 2/3 innings in his first MLB season.
  • J.D. Martinez was known to be a Red Sox trade candidate heading into the 2022 deadline, and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that the Dodgers came “very close” to a deal to land the veteran slugger.  However, talks fell through when the Sox asked for Evan Phillips to also be included in the trade package.  At the time, Phillips was partway through a breakout 2022 season that saw him post a 1.14 ERA over 63 innings, and he went on to another outstanding year as the Dodgers’ first-choice closer in 2023 (2.05 ERA over 61 1/3 frames, with 24 saves).  Since the Dodgers pivoted to adding Joey Gallo at that deadline, it’s easy to wonder if Martinez could’ve or would’ve done more to upgrade the lineup, yet it’s hard to fault the team’s logic in wanting to retain Phillips.  As it turned out, L.A. got the best of both worlds in 2023, with Phillips closing games and Martinez delivering a big year at the plate after signing with the Dodgers as a free agent last offseason.

NL West Notes: Conforto, Manaea, Sewald, Dodgers

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Michael Conforto and Sean Manaea can each opt out of the final year of their contracts with the Giants, with Conforto owed $18MM in 2024 and Manaea $12.5MM.  Neither player has yet decided whether or not they’ll opt out, with Conforto telling NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic that “I think the good thing is it’ll be a hard decision, but I don’t think there’s a bad outcome really.  It will be tough, just because I’m very close with these guys and the uncertainty there could give you a little bit of anxiety, but again, there are a lot of conversations that have to happen before I’m even close to knowing what I want to do.”

Conforto hit .239/.334/.384 over 470 plate appearances in a season shortened by a hamstring injury, while Manaea posted a 4.44 ERA over 117 2/3 innings while working as a starter, long reliever, and bulk pitcher behind an opener.  Manaea might be the likelier of the two to find a larger deal on the open market, as Pavlovic notes that a multi-year agreement could be possible since teams are forever in need of pitching.  Conforto could remain with the Giants and hope for a better platform year before re-entering the market next winter, though he’d be rejoining an outfield/DH picture that already looks crowded, and the Giants might still be making more moves to the outfield to add both athleticism and hitting pop.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks’ acquisition of Paul Sewald has proven to be one of the trade deadline’s most impactful moves, as The Arizona Republic’s Theo Mackie writes that the Snakes’ once-unsteady bullpen has turned into a strength.  From August 19 until the end of the regular season, Arizona relievers combined for a 2.94 ERA, with Sewald himself delivering a 2.84 ERA over 12 2/3 innings in that stretch, closing out nine of 10 save chances.  As noted by Mackie and D’Backs GM Mike Hazen, establishing Sewald as the closer allowed the team to stick to a pretty set formula for their bullpen usage, and this routine has helped the Diamondbacks both reach the playoffs and advance to the NLCS.
  • The Dodgers’ roster is broken down by J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, with an eye towards whether or not several players could be back in Los Angeles in 2024.  Among the free agents, Hoornstra likes the chances of a reunion with Enrique Hernandez, as the utilityman’s multi-positional ability could help add depth if a DH-only player (i.e. Shohei Ohtani) were to join the roster.  On the other hand, David Peralta is basically limited to just left field and only against right-handed pitching, so it seems like L.A. might prefer internal options.  There also seems to be a chance the Dodgers will re-sign Jason Heyward, which could make Peralta further “redundant” since Heyward is also a left-handed hitter and a more versatile outfielder.

Daniel Hudson Undecided About Future

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2023 may have been the most frustrating of Daniel Hudson’s 14 MLB seasons, as injuries limited the Dodgers right-hander to just three appearances.  As a result, Hudson is still “undecided” about his playing future, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic writes, though at the time the reliever was still dealing with the emotions after the Dodgers were just eliminated from the postseason.

Los Angeles signed Hudson to a one-year, $7MM deal going into 2022 and that relationship began beautifully, with Hudson delivering a 2.22 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 53.4% ground ball rate over his first 25 appearances and 24 1/3 innings in Dodger blue.  However, Hudson’s season was abruptly ended by a torn left ACL in June 2022, but L.A. had enough faith in his ability to come back that the club signed him to an extension that September.  The Dodgers made the early decision to exercise their $6.5MM club option on Hudson for 2023, and another $6.5MM club option was added for the 2024 season.

Battling through some knee soreness during the recovery process, Hudson finally returned to action this past June, but pitched in only three games before suffering a sprained MCL in his right knee.  The reliever kept rehabbing in an attempt to make it back for at least part of Los Angeles’ playoff run, but that would’ve been a touch-and-go situation even if the Dodgers had advanced to the NLCS or beyond.

While it doesn’t look like L.A. will exercise that club option, the Dodgers could look to bring Hudson back on a smaller sum, perhaps a low-guarantee deal with incentives based around how many appearances Hudson is able to pitch.  Of course, that depends on whether or not Hudson (who turns 37 in March) will decide to keep pitching at all, or opt to instead hang up the cleats after his lengthy and successful career.  This isn’t the first time Hudson has floated retirement, as he said back in August that he had “been in pretty consistent pain for about 15 months” since the ACL tear.

Ardaya’s piece in general looks ahead to the many decisions the Dodgers will have to make before Opening Day 2024, including a rundown of the club’s other contract options besides Hudson.  Of note, Max Muncy’s $10MM club option for next season has now increased to $14MM, since the infielder maxed out his playing time-related bonuses by making 579 plate appearances in 2023.

Muncy battled elbow problems for much of the 2022 season, so the Dodgers signed him to a one-year contract extension in a similar vein to Hudson’s deal.  The team essentially committed early to a pre-existing club option on Muncy for 2023, giving him a slight raise to a $10.5MM salary this season and tacking on the 2024 club option with the $10MM base salary.  Up to $4MM (in increments of $250K, $500K, and $1MM) more was available based on various playing time thresholds, which Muncy pretty easily cleared.  After hitting 36 homers with an .808 OPS and 118 wRC+ this season, there isn’t any doubt Los Angeles will exercise Muncy’s option and bring him back in 2024.

Clayton Kershaw Undecided On Future

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The Dodgers season came to an unceremonious close last night. After being swept in the NL Division Series by the Diamondbacks, they’re headed into the offseason.

Each fall brings questions about whether Clayton Kershaw will be back for another year. Unsurprisingly, the three-time Cy Young winner wasn’t prepared to answer within the first couple hours of his team’s elimination. Kershaw told the L.A. beat postgame that he’s “not sure” what his playing future holds (relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register).

Kershaw expanded upon that in a conversation with Andy McCullough of the Athletic, saying he expected to take several weeks before making a decision. Last year, he told reporters in late September that he was leaning towards playing in 2023. He agreed to a new deal with the Dodgers by November 10. Kershaw suggested to McCullough he won’t make his decision as quickly this time around.

Part of the calculus is his arm health. The 10-time All-Star landed on the injured list with shoulder soreness on July 3. He was out for around five weeks. While the Dodgers reinstated Kershaw on August 10, team officials conceded he still didn’t feel close to 100%. The southpaw told McCullough he could go for additional examination on the shoulder this offseason.

Kershaw had another stellar regular season despite the injury. He worked to a 2.46 ERA across 131 2/3 innings, striking out a strong 26.2% of opponents. Kershaw’s 7.6% walk rate was his highest in over a decade but still slightly better than league average. While his strikeout and walk numbers took a step back following his return from the injured list, he worked to a 2.23 ERA in his last eight regular season starts.

That production belied a notable downtick in the quality of his raw arsenal. Kershaw’s average fastball speed was a little above 91 MPH through the season’s first three months. His fastball sat at 90.2 MPH in August and was down to just 88.6 MPH on average in the final month. The slider was similarly slow, dropping from the 86-87 MPH range to 84.7 MPH in September.

The diminished arsenal caught up to him in October. The Dodgers’ flimsy rotation left them with little choice but to give Kershaw the ball for one of the first two starts against Arizona. He took the Dodger Stadium mound in Game 1 and was blitzed for six runs on six hits and a walk while recording just one out in an eventual 11-2 loss. The rest of the rotation didn’t fare much better. Bobby Miller surrendered three runs and didn’t get past the second inning in Game 2; Lance Lynn was tagged for four home runs in the third inning to take a 4-2 loss last night.

Addressing the starting staff will be a key priority for the L.A. front office. Julio Urías looks very unlikely to return amidst a domestic violence investigation. Tony Gonsolin could miss the whole year after a Tommy John procedure in August. Dustin May will be out until the middle of the season following flexor surgery. Lynn seems headed for free agency once the Dodgers decline an $18MM club option.

Walker Buehler should be ready to join Miller in two spots. Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot could vie for jobs, while Gavin Stone and Michael Grove are beyond them on the depth chart. There’s still promise with the group but they’ll need to add quite a bit more stability. If Kershaw decides to return for a 17th major league season, the Dodgers would certainly welcome him back on another one-year deal.

Kershaw signed a $20MM pact last winter. A similar salary would make sense if he continues playing. While the Dodgers could technically put forth a qualifying offer in the $20.5MM range, it’s hard to see that happening. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters two offseasons ago the organization declined to qualify Kershaw to afford him more than 10 days to make a decision on his future. There’s no reason to believe that won’t be the case this fall.

14 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR, including a list of 29 players last week. The next group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Outfielders

Pitchers

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