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Rangers, Rays Complete Nate Lowe Trade

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The Rangers announced that they have acquired outfielder Carl Chester from the Rays. Chester is the player to be named later in the teams’ December trade that sent first baseman Nate Lowe to Texas.

Now 25 years old, Chester was a 12th-round pick in 2017 who has topped out at the Double-A level so far in his career. He debuted there in 2019 and slashed .264/.299/.405 with a pair of home runs in 127 plate appearances. Overall, Chester has batted .284/.340/.397 and smacked 13 homers over 1,283 trips to the plate in the minors. Chester did not rank among the Rays’ 30 best prospects at Baseball America, FanGraphs or MLB.com before the trade.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Tomoyuki Sugano?

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Tomoyuki Sugano arrived in the United States two days ago, according to The Hochi News (Japanese language link), as the right-hander and his agent Joel Wolfe plan for the final few days of Sugano’s 30-day posting window.  January 7 is the final day of that posting period, and with at least six MLB teams known to have interest in Sugano’s services, the odds seem to be in favor of Sugano pitching in the big leagues in 2021.

A move to North America is not guaranteed, however.  As noted in that Hochi News item, Sugano said earlier this month that he hadn’t yet fully decided on whether or not to make the jump to Major League Baseball, with the COVID-19 pandemic weighing as a factor in his decision.  As we just saw yesterday with outfielder Haruki Nishikawa, it isn’t uncommon for Japanese players to reach the end of their 30-day posting period without having reached a deal with any MLB teams.

Beyond that uncertainty, it’s also possible that Sugano’s market has been somewhat reduced in number.  Of the six teams linked to Sugano in rumors, two have made other significant pitching additions that may have removed them from the running.  The Rangers already made one foray into the Japanese pitching market by signing Kohei Arihara to a two-year, $6.2MM contract.  The Padres, of course, dominated headlines by swinging a pair of blockbuster trades for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, and now headlines a rotation mix that also includes Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi, and several impressive younger arms.

This isn’t to say that Texas or San Diego wouldn’t still have interest in Sugano, of course.  Even with Arihara’s signing, the Rangers could still conceivably add to their rotation considering that Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kolby Allard all struggled in 2020.  As for the Padres, they’re so clearly in win-now mode that they might see Sugano as another key piece for what they hope is a World Series contender.  Adding another starting candidate serves as a further guard should Lamet have an injury setback, and it could allow the Padres to potentially float one of their younger arms as a trade chip in another trade.

The Red Sox also made a recent pitching addition in Matt Andriese, but while Andriese will be given a crack at a starting job, he might end up as a reliever or perhaps a swingman.  Boston has enough questions in its rotation that signing Sugano would make sense even if Andriese did end up as a starter.  Likewise, the Giants have retained Kevin Gausman via the qualifying offer and signed Anthony DeSclafani since the start of the offseason, but San Francisco’s pitching staff would certainly still use further reinforcement.

The Blue Jays and Mets have respectively been linked to almost every free agent this offseason, so it isn’t surprising that they’re both in on Sugano.  Whether Sugano would be either team’s final major pitching addition is the question, as a case could be made that both Toronto and New York have enough arms on hand, or that another notable hurler (perhaps even Trevor Bauer) is required to really turn either rotation into a big plus.

With these options in mind, it’s time to open the floor to the MLBTR readership.  Where do you think Sugano will pitch in 2021? (poll link for app users)

Who will sign Tomoyuki Sugano?
Mets 21.99% (4,036 votes)
Giants 15.08% (2,768 votes)
Blue Jays 14.77% (2,710 votes)
Another MLB team 13.22% (2,425 votes)
Red Sox 11.98% (2,198 votes)
Nobody --- Sugano will remain in Japan 11.06% (2,030 votes)
Padres 7.93% (1,455 votes)
Rangers 3.97% (728 votes)
Total Votes: 18,350

Checking In On 2020’s Lowest-Scoring Offenses

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Three of the 2020 campaign’s five lowest-scoring offenses belonged to National League playoff teams, but that’s not an ideal outcome if you truly want to make noise in October. Indeed, all three of those clubs (St. Louis, Cincinnati and Milwaukee) failed to advance beyond the playoffs’ initial round during the fall. So what have they and the league’s other two bottom-feeding offenses done to improve themselves this offseason? Not much, as you’ll see below…

Pirates (219 runs scored, 73 wRC+):

  • The Pirates look even worse on paper than they did at the end of the season, having traded first baseman Josh Bell to the Nationals last week. While Bell had a horrid season in 2020, he was a star-caliber performer during the previous year, in which he slashed .277/.367/.569 with 37 home runs. The Bell-less Pirates haven’t done anything of significance to bolster their offense this winter, but the good news is that they should get a full 2021 (however many games that consists of) from third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who ran roughshod over the league during a scintillating 95-PA debut in 2020. There’s also nowhere to go but up for holdovers such as Gregory Polanco, Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier, who each posted awful numbers last season.

Rangers (224 runs, 67 wRC+):

  • The Rangers have a couple newcomers in outfielder David Dahl and first baseman Nate Lowe, who they hope will improve their attack in 2021. Otherwise, they’ll be counting on bounce-back efforts from the likes of Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun, Nick Solak, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. It’s hard to imagine things will get any worse next year for that quintet, though Andrus and Odor have been trending in the wrong direction for years. The Rangers are down enough on Andrus these days that they’re planning on using him as a backup shortstop/utilityman behind Isiah Kiner-Falefa next season.

Cardinals (240 runs, 93 wRC+):

  • The Cardinals’ place in these rankings is deceiving because a team-wide COVID-19 outbreak cost them two full games. Their 93 wRC+ was closer to average than horrendous, but that isn’t to say they don’t have work to do offensively. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielder Harrison Bader, two of their best hitters in 2020, are returning. But Brad Miller, who was second on the team in wRC+ (121), is a free agent. Going by wRC+, those three were the only above-average offensive players on last season’s roster. The Cardinals haven’t done anything thus far to better their offense, even though they’re facing questions almost everywhere. Catcher Yadier Molina is a free agent, as is second baseman Kolten Wong, while most of their outfielders underwhelmed at the plate in 2020.

Reds (243 runs, 91 wRC+):

  • The Reds made a real effort to upgrade their offense last winter in signing Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama. Moustakas wound up having a typical season at the plate, but Castellanos and Akiyama fell short of expectations. Barring trades, no one from that group is going anywhere in 2021. Likewise, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel and Tucker Barnhart will hang around in key roles. Aside from Winker, who was fantastic in 2020, the Reds will need more from everyone listed in the previous sentence. They also need to upgrade at shortstop, where the largely untested Jose Garcia is their current starter, but it’s unclear whether the team will do so to a satisfactory extent during what has been a cost-cutting winter so far.

Brewers (247 runs, 89 wRC+):

  • We’ll cap things off with another NL Central team, Milwaukee, which has joined its division rivals this winter in doing virtually nothing to better its chances of success in 2021. The Brewers opted against retaining infielder Jedd Gyorko, among their most productive hitters last season, instead paying him a $1MM buyout in lieu of exercising his $4.5MM option. They also declined team icon Ryan Braun’s option, but that was an easy decision because the six-time All-Star would have otherwise earned a $15MM salary in 2021. Braun, to his credit, was roughly a league-average hitter last season, which is more than you can say for most Brewers regulars. Whether or not the Brewers bring in outside help, better years from former NL MVP Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia and Omar Narvaez would go a long way in helping the team tack more runs on the board in 2021.

Rangers Sign Charlie Culberson To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers announced that they’ve signed infielder/outfielder Charlie Culberson to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training.

Culberson, 31, has spent the past three seasons with the Braves, shaking off a slow start that drew the ire of some fans to emerge as something of a cult hero in Atlanta thanks to some memorable clutch hits. Culberson certainly has a flair for the dramatic, having connected on several walk-off homers in his career — including a division-clinching walk-off shot for the Dodgers on Vin Scully’s final call at Dodger Stadium.

Though he was an oft-used utilityman for the Braves in 2018-19, Culberson tallied just seven plate appearances in 2020 and collected just one hit. Dating back to 2016, however, he’s totaled 556 plate appearances between the Dodgers and Braves, batting a combined .266/.312/.440 slash. Culberson has logged most of his time in the Majors at either shortstop or in left field, but he’s played all four infield spots and both outfield corners in the big leagues (in addition to 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball on the mound).

Quick Hits: Arihara, Red Sox, Kahnle, Senga

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For Rangers fans curious about Kohei Arihara, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests that Colby Lewis could be a decent comp for the newly-signed right-hander in terms of eating innings and a similar ability to record outs without the help of a big fastball.  The Rangers would certainly be more than pleased if Arihara were to duplicate Lewis’ numbers (4.27 ERA and an average of 166 innings per year) from 2010-16, and GM Chris Young told Grant and other reporters that the team was hopes Arihara can “stabilize the rotation” in terms of covering innings, at the very least.

“Durability is a highlight,” Young said.  “We think there is upside here, in terms of his curiosity and his willingness to learn and improve, but the durability component is a very appealing aspect of this signing….We’re hopeful for 150-plus [innings].”

More from around baseball…

  • The Red Sox were known to be the runners-up in the race to sign Tommy Kahnle, and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham reports that the Sox were open to making the kind of two-year contract that Kahnle received from the Dodgers as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.  After ducking under the luxury tax threshold in 2020 and resetting their tax penalty limit, the Red Sox are now “exploring other creative ways to use their payroll flexibility,” Abraham writes, suggesting that the Sox could look to acquire prospects from another team by also agreeing to take a big contract off that team’s books.
  • Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks right-hander Kodai Senga is no closer to making his desired move to Major League Baseball, as per a Kyodo News report.  The Hawks are the only NPB team that has never posted a player to the majors, and according to general manager Sugihiko Mikasa, “I can’t say there is any big change to our policy” coming in the near future.  Senga, who turns 28 in January, has established himself as one of Japan’s top pitchers, with a 2.69 ERA, 2.98 K/BB rate, and 10.5 K/9 over 860 1/3 career innings for the Hawks from 2012-20.  Senga can be a full free agent after the 2022 season, and while the Hawks are working out a multi-year contract extension, it doesn’t seem like Senga would accept a deal beyond 2022 given his longstanding interest in North America.

Free Agent Notes: Sugano, Kluber, Naquin, Blue Jays

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The Giants are the latest team to be connected to Tomoyuki Sugano, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that San Francisco is keeping an eye on the right-hander’s market.  This makes at least six teams known to have interest in Sugano, as the Giants join the Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, and Rangers.  Notably, Morosi omitted the Rangers from his list, so it could be that Texas is out of the running for Sugano after signing Kohei Arihara.

As with all of these pitching-needy clubs, Sugano would be a nice fit in San Francisco’s rotation.  The Giants’ pitching staff was bolstered when Kevin Gausman accepted the qualifying offer, and the club made a further addition in signing Anthony DeSclafani to a one-year, $6MM contract.  Sugano will require more money and a multi-year commitment, but it wouldn’t represent that big of an outlay for a Giants club that doesn’t have much payroll committed beyond the 2021 season.

More on some other free agents…

  • Corey Kluber was known to be planning bullpen sessions for scouts next month, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports that these sessions are tentatively scheduled for January 12 or 13.  Injuries limited Kluber to only 35 2/3 innings in 2019 and just a single inning of work last season, so there are plenty of questions surrounding the former Cy Young Award winner’s health.  Despite this lack of recent track record, one would expect most teams to send evalutors to Kluber’s showcase, as there is major buy-low potential if Kluber looks anything like his old Cy Young Award-winning self.  The Twins and Red Sox have already reportedly shown interest in Kluber this offseason.
  • Tyler Naquin is drawing interest from multiple teams, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes, but it doesn’t seem like a reunion with the Indians is in the cards.  “The chances of [Naquin] re-signing were slim” after the Tribe non-tendered Naquin earlier this month, Hoynes writes.  The 15th overall pick of the 2012 draft, Naquin showed flashes of stardom (particularly in his 2016 rookie year) during five seasons in Cleveland, but injuries and struggles against left-handed pitching have hampered Naquin’s career.  Interstingly, Hoynes notes that “a couple” of teams are thinking about Naquin as a candidate to play center field, though Naquin hasn’t played the position since 2018 and his defensive metrics as a center fielder aren’t promising.
  • The Blue Jays have been seemingly connected to just about every major free agent, yet The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm makes the “bold prediction” that J.T. Realmuto will ultimately land with the team.  There’s some process-of-elimination logic here, as Chisholm feels that George Springer will sign with the Mets and DJ LeMahieu will re-sign with the Yankees, leaving the Jays without either of what seem to be their top two targets.  From Realmuto’s perspective, the Mets’ deal with James McCann may have already eliminated the most likely candidate for his services, as it isn’t yet clear if other potential suitors like the Phillies or Nationals are willing to meet Realmuto’s asking price.  With Realmuto in the fold, Toronto could then use its young catching surplus as trade chips to address other needs.

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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A unique set of challenges faced anyone running a Major League franchise in 2020, between dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic and then the difficulties involved in playing games during the delayed-then-shortened season.  Nevertheless, it seemed like only a certain amount of slack was granted the sport’s managers and front office leaders (whether that top title was president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, etc.) through the turbulent year, as we still saw a number of teams make changes either in the dugout or at the top of the baseball ops department.

As such, it’s fair to assume that a “normal” amount of pressure to put a winning — or championship-winning — team on the field will be the same in 2021 as in any usual season, even if 2021 is already looking it may have its own share of abnormality.  That means that for managers and executives heading into the last guaranteed year of their contracts, job security will likely be on the line in the coming months.

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for information on the various contractual details of team personnel, though this list may not be complete.  Some teams don’t publicly reveal contract lengths of managers or front office execs, so it’s possible some of these names might be locked up beyond 2021 whether due to the original terms of their current deals or due to extensions that haven’t been announced.

Astros: Originally signed to a one-year deal with a club option for 2021, Dusty Baker saw Houston exercise that option last summer, lining Baker up for his 24th season running a Major League dugout.  Recent comments from Baker indicate that the 71-year-old is taking something of a year-by-year approach to his future, though if the Astros again reach the postseason, one would imagine the team would certainly have interest in retaining Baker for 2022.  A longer-term extension seems unlikely, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if at least another club option (or even a mutual option) was tacked onto Baker’s deal to give both sides some flexibility going forward.

Athletics: While major postseason success continues to elude the team, Oakland has reached the playoffs in each of the last three years.  This makes six postseason appearances for Melvin in 10 years managing the A’s, and it seems likely the team will discuss another extension for Melvin as he enters the final year of his current contract.  While Billy Beane’s possible departure would naturally have a major impact on the Athletics, the likelihood of longtime executive and current GM David Forst taking over the baseball operations department would probably mean that Melvin would be welcomed back.

Blue Jays: Charlie Montoyo is entering the last guaranteed year of his original three-year contract, and the Jays hold a club option on Montoyo’s services for 2022.  That option could be exercised to give Montoyo a bit more security as a reward for leading Toronto to the playoffs last year, though expectations are certainly higher for the 2021 team.  It should also be noted that there hasn’t yet been any official confirmation that president/CEO Mark Shapiro has signed a new contract with the team after his five-year deal ran out after last season, but last October, Shapiro seemed to imply that a new deal was all but complete.

Braves: After going from interim manager to full-time manager following the 2016 season, Brian Snitker has twice been signed to extensions — most recently last February, when Atlanta turned its 2021 club option on Snitker into a guaranteed year.  Snitker has led the Braves to three straight NL East titles and the team fell one game shy of the NL pennant last October, so Snitker seems like a prime candidate for another extension prior to Opening Day.

Diamondbacks: 2020 was an overall disappointing year for a D’Backs team that was aiming for the postseason, but team president/CEO Derrick Hall indicated that the organization wasn’t planning to make any wholesale changes due to the season’s unusual nature.  This bodes well for manager Torey Lovullo as he enters the last year of his contract, and it seems possible Arizona could add another year to Lovullo’s deal just so he can avoid lame-duck status.

Mariners: Both GM Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais were in the final year of their contracts when both inked extensions with Seattle in July 2018.  The terms of those extensions weren’t known, but 2021 would be the final guaranteed year for both if the extensions were three-year deals like their original contracts, though it’s possible Dipoto and Servais each got more security than just a three-year pact.  The Mariners have mostly been in rebuild mode since those extensions were signed, and with the team only starting to deliver on some of the young talent amassed in the farm system, ownership could give Dipoto (and quite possibly Servais) more time to see if they can finally get the M’s back to the playoffs.  Considering the previous extensions weren’t announced until midseason, we might not know Dipoto/Servais’ fate for some time — and if the Mariners get off to a particularly disappointing start, changes might be in the offing.

Marlins: One of few holdovers from Jeffrey Loria’s ownership, Don Mattingly was signed to a two-year extension following the 2019 season that contained a club option for 2022.  The young Marlins reached the postseason last season, so Mattingly has a good case to at least get his option exercised at some point this year, and another extension could well be discussed if CEO Derek Jeter and GM Kim Ng are satisfied with the team’s progress.  It can’t hurt that Ng knows Mattingly well from her past days an assistant general manager with the Yankees and Dodgers.

Mets: The winds of change have swept through the Mets organization this winter, yet Luis Rojas wasn’t affected, as team president Sandy Alderson announced that Rojas will remain in the dugout for 2021.  Making the move from quality control coach to manager after Carlos Beltran’s quick resignation last winter, Rojas signed a two-year deal with club options for both 2022 and 2023.  Expectations are definitely higher for Rojas under the Steve Cohen regime, but given all of the tumult of the 2020 season, Cohen and Alderson (plus newly-hired GM Jared Porter) seem interested in seeing what they actually have in Rojas before deciding on whether a new manager is required.

Orioles: According to The Athletic’s Dan Connolly, “one industry source said it’s believed” that 2021 is the last guaranteed year of manager Brandon Hyde’s contract, with the club possibly holding a club option for 2022.  For that matter, executive VP/general manager Mike Elias didn’t have his contract terms revealed when he was hired in November 2018, so he could also be in his final guaranteed year if he hired Hyde on a similar timeline to his own deal.  It doesn’t seem like a change is coming in either the front office or the dugout, as the Orioles are still at least a couple of years away from coming out of a complete rebuild.  (Connolly makes the case that Hyde should be retained, as Hyde has had little to work with as manager and deserves a chance to steward an actual competitive roster.)

Rangers: Chris Woodward is entering the last guaranteed year of his deal, with the Rangers holding a club option for 2022.  Woodward has a 100-122 record over his first two years in the Texas dugout, and since the team is looking to get younger in 2021, it doesn’t seem like an immediate return to contention is in the cards.  If it’ll be a year or two until the Rangers are done with what seems like a mini-rebuild, it’s possible the team might decide to hire a new manager to herald them into something of a new era.  Woodward may have to prove himself anew by shepherding this younger talent and keeping the Rangers as competitive as possible while they shuffle the roster.

Rays: Erik Neander’s contract terms aren’t known, and it has been over four years since his promotion to the GM/senior VP of baseball operations position in November 2016.  So, if Neander’s new gig came with a five-year contract, it would be up at the end of 2021.  He makes the list due to uncertainty over his contractual situation, but it doesn’t seem like Neander and the Rays will be parting company any time soon, especially after the club reached the 2020 World Series.  Neander reportedly has no interest in leaving the organization and the Rays turned down the Angels’ request to speak with Neander about their GM opening earlier this offseason.

Reds: 2021 is the last guaranteed year for manager David Bell, with the Reds holding a team option for 2022.  On the plus side for Bell, he led the team to the playoffs in 2020, though Cincinnati was swept out of the two-game wild card series without scoring even a single run against Atlanta pitching.  The Reds spent a lot of money to build that winning team, yet now seem focused on moving salaries, with Raisel Iglesias dealt to the Angels and such names as Eugenio Suarez and Sonny Gray also coming up in trade talks.  It remains to be seen if the Reds are trying to just trim payroll or make more wholesale cuts, and this direction could certainly impact Bell’s future if the club is already thinking rebuild.

Rockies: Now through six full seasons as Colorado’s GM, Jeff Bridich’s contractual status is unknown.  Between the Rockies’ struggles over the last two years and the frosty relationship between Bridich and star third baseman Nolan Arenado, it would certainly seem like Bridich will need to get things turned around quickly.  However, payroll cuts appear to be on the horizon, and the front office is also dealing with the loss of two-thirds of the analytics department.  As has been noted many times in the past, Rockies owner Dick Monfort tends to give his employees lots of opportunities, but if Bridich’s contract is up any time soon, one wonders if Monfort might feel a change is necessary.

Yankees: While no official statement has been made, owner Hal Steinbrenner clearly stated after the season that manager Aaron Boone will be returning in 2021, so it’s safe to assume the Yankees have exercised their club option on Boone.  There hasn’t been any buzz about an extension, and until then, there will be plenty of media focus on Boone’s lame-duck status.  Boone has a 236-148 record and three postseason appearances in his three seasons as manager, but as always in the Bronx, the focus is on playoff success — the Yankees have only made it as far the ALCS once during Boone’s tenure.  Anything short of a World Series appearance could spell the end of Boone’s stint as manager.

Rangers To Sign Kohei Arihara

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TODAY: MLB Insider Jon Heyman provided some clarification as to the financial specifics today (via Twitter). As presumed yesterday, the posting fee will amount to $1.24MM, while the Rangers will pay out $6.2MM over the course of the two-year contract. Arihara will make $2.6MM in 2021 and $3.6MM in 2022, adds MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter).

Dec. 25: The Rangers are in agreement with right-hander Kohei Arihara, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). It’s a two-year contract in the $6-7MM range, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Arihara, 28, has spent the past six seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball. In 836 career innings at Japan’s highest level, Arihara compiled a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He has been especially productive over the past two years. Arihara posted a minuscule 2.46 ERA with a career-best 8.8 K/9 in 2019. This past season, he managed a 3.46 mark with 7.2 K/9 across 132.2 innings.

Writing for Baseball America on the heels of Arihara’s peak season in 2019, Jason Coskrey noted that the right-hander works in the low-90’s and primarily leans upon his fastball, changeup and slider. Arihara has up to seven distinct pitches in his arsenal, though, and Coskrey notes he’s adept at using his secondaries to keep opposing hitters off balance. He also has a long history of throwing strikes, not having issued more than 2.2 walks per nine innings pitched in any of his last five NPB seasons.

Arihara’s not known for especially overpowering raw stuff, and that’s been borne out in his relatively low strikeout rates. Shun Yamaguchi, who signed a similar contract with the Blue Jays last offseason, consistently posted heftier strikeout totals over his time in Japan than did Arihara. So too has Tomoyuki Sugano, the higher-profile NPB starter available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter. That could suggest Arihara’s more suited for the back of the rotation, although he figures to have a decent opportunity for innings in Texas.

Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles will presumably try to bounce back from dismal 2020 seasons. Dane Dunning will certainly get a rotation job after coming over from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade. There’s a lot of uncertainty beyond (and even among) that trio, though. Kolby Allard was knocked around last season and hasn’t yet established himself as a big league caliber starter. Kyle Cody, who never worked more than five innings, was the only other player still on the roster to start multiple games for Texas last season.

In addition to Arihara’s salary, the Rangers will owe the Fighters a release fee under the terms of the MLB-NPB posting system. The Fighters will receive a sum equal to 20 percent of the contract value. Depending upon the contract’s specific terms, that would put the posting fee in the $1.2MM – 1.4MM range. Texas’ total outlay is around $7.5MM, hears Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).

The Red Sox and Padres were reportedly the other finalists in the bidding for Arihara, whose posting window was set to expire tomorrow. San Diego and Boston will now have to turn elsewhere in their hunt for additional rotation depth.

Rangers Designate Art Warren For Assignment

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The Texas Rangers announced the signing of Kohei Arihara today, inking the right-hander to a two-year, $6.2MM contract after paying a $1.24MM posting fee to Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. In a corresponding move, the Rangers have designated right-hander Art Warren for assignment, notes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).

Warren, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Mariners just after the 2020 season. He didn’t appear for the Mariners this season after making six scoreless appearances in 2019. Prior to making his Major League debut that season, Warren posted a sterling 1.71 ERA across 29 appearances totaling 31 2/3 innings in Double-A. He recorded 15 saves while finishing 22 games and showing swing-and-miss potential with 11.7 K/9.

While Warren will be 28 years old for the 2021 season, a 95 mph fastball and wipe-out slider provide Warren with enough firepower to make a front office curious. The Ohio native has done enough since being drafted in the 23rd round out of Ashland University to get a look somewhere next season. If he’s not claimed, the Rangers would likely gladly keep him in the organization.

Report: Padres, Rangers, Red Sox Are Finalists For Kohei Arihara

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The 30-day posting window for right-hander Kohei Arihara is set to close on December 26, and Arihara is apparently set to choose between three MLB teams.  According to reports out of Japan, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox are the finalists for Arihara’s services.

San Diego was the only team known to have interest in Arihara, though it isn’t any surprise that pitching-needy teams like Texas and Boston are also looking into the 28-year-old.  Interestingly, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox have also been linked to Tomoyuki Sugano, another high-profile NPB name on the market.  Sugano’s posting window doesn’t close until January 7, so it’s possible that whichever team lands Arihara could drop out of the race for Sugano.

Comparisons between the two pitchers are inevitable, and Sugano certainly has the more successful track record in Nippon Professional Baseball, as a two-time Sawamura Award winner and one of the better pitchers in the entire league over the last decade.  Sugano is also 31, however, while Arihara doesn’t turn 29 until August.  Arihara would also presumably be available at a lower price tag, which is certainly a factor for any team in this offseason.

Arihara has a 3.74 ERA, 3.23 K/BB rate, and 6.7 K/9 over 836 innings for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.  After winning Pacific League Rookie Of The Year honors in 2015, Arihara had a strong sophomore campaign in 2016 before his production took a dip in 2017-18.  He righted the ship with his finest season, as Arihara has a 2.46 ERA and 8.8 K/9 (both career bests) over 164 1/3 frames for the Fighters in 2019.

As per a scouting report from Will Hoefer of the Sports Info Solutions blog after that big 2019 season, Arihara has a plus changeup, and a fastball that can touch 95mph (though Arihara prefers to mix speeds to keep batters guessing).  Arihara has good command over these two pitches “and a slider that flashes plus,” and Hoefer projects the righty as “a middle of the rotation starter for an MLB team.”

Such an arm would surely be attractive to the three reported finalists.  The Padres are looking for rotation help in the wake of Mike Clevinger’s Tommy John surgery, and the Rangers and Red Sox are both looking for live arms just to fill out a rotation after their pitchers largely struggled in 2020.  In Texas, Arihara would slot in alongside veterans Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, with newly-acquired Dane Dunning also tabbed for a rotation spot after being acquired in the Lance Lynn trade.  Boston’s pitching staff is even more open, given the uncertainty over how Eduardo Rodriguez will bounce back from the health problems that kept him off the mound in 2020, the ever-present injury concerns for Nathan Eovaldi, and an overall lack of experience among other starting options.

According to the MLB/NPB posting system, Arihara has been free to negotiate with any Major League club over his 30-day period, and once he signs with a team, that team will owe the Fighters a release fee that will vary based on the size of Arihara’s contract.  The Fighters will receive a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM, and then 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, and 15 percent of any dollars spent beyond the $50MM threshold.

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