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Latest On Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna

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There is little doubt that Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna have the most earning power among free-agent outfielders. In MLBTR’s estimation, they’re the only outfielders who look like strong bets to even land $20MM guarantees this winter. We have Castellanos signing for $58MM over four years and Ozuna receiving a three-year, $45MM contract.

Compared to Ozuna, Castellanos has two obvious factors working in his favor: He’s younger (Castellanos will turn 28 in March, while Ozuna’s 29th birthday was on Tuesday) and there’s no qualifying offer weighing him down. The Cardinals, Ozuna’s most recent team, hit him with a $17.8MM QO aftter the season. Assuming he rejects it by Thursday’s deadline, which looks likely, Ozuna’s next club would have to surrender draft compensation to sign him. As for Castellanos, he was part of a trade during the 2019 campaign, going from the Tigers to the Cubs, so he was ineligible to receive a QO this offseason.

Regardless of whom you prefer, both Castellanos and Ozuna figure to draw plenty of interest now that the offseason is underway. The Reds are one team that seems to like both: Already known to have Ozuna on their radar, they’re also eyeing Castellanos, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Either would give the playoff-desperate Reds a much-needed established option in the corner outfield, where the talented but largely unproven Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino look like their best choices at the moment.

The Reds and Cardinals are two of at least a half-dozen teams open to a deal with Ozuna, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, who also names the White Sox and Rangers among the intrigued clubs. The White Sox’s interest isn’t remotely surprising. After all, they’re trying to transition from rebuilding to contending, but doing so will be difficult without significantly improving an outfield that finished dead last in the majors in fWAR (0.9) in 2019, when rookie Eloy Jimenez was their lone bright spot in the grass.

Likewise, the Rangers have one immensely valuable outfield building block (Joey Gallo), but it’s otherwise up in the air who will comprise the unit with him in 2020. Hunter Pence is a free agent (and more of.a designated hitter nowadays); Shin-Soo Choo’s more cut out for a DH role; Nomar Mazara has disappointed and may not even be a Ranger in 2020; Willie Calhoun and Danny Santana don’t have set positions; and Delino DeShields is coming off yet another rough offensive season. All that said, there’s room for Texas to make at least one notable addition in the outfield, and with the team set to christen a new stadium in 2020, perhaps Ozuna will end up as one of its buzzworthy pickups.

Rangers Reportedly Making “Aggressive” Push For Josh Donaldson

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The Rangers are making “an aggressive push” to strike an early deal with free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter). Donaldson still hasn’t even had to give the Braves a formal decision on his $17.8MM qualifying offer — though he’ll surely reject it by tomorrow’s deadline. A deal of this significance in mid-November is of the utmost rarity in today’s free-agent climate. However, it’s worth pointing out that Donaldson signed his one-year deal with the Braves in late November last year, so there’s some precedent for him preferring a rather short stay on the open market.

Third base is a clear area of need for the Rangers, as young Nick Solak is likely the top option at the hot corner as things are currently constructed in Arlington. Texas certainly has the funds to reel in a free agent of Donaldson’s caliber after scaling back on payroll last winter; the Rangers have previously seen their payroll climb as high as $165MM on Opening Day 2017, but they currently project to check in around $115MM. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in previewing the Rangers’ offseason, a match between Donaldson and Texas seems perfectly plausible and would bear some similarity to the Rangers’ run with Adrian Beltre in his mid- to late-30s.

As we detailed at MLBTR this week, signing Donaldson on the heels of a qualifying offer would cost the Rangers their second-highest draft selection next summer as well as $500K of their 2020-21 international signing bonus. Donaldson, who hit .259/.371/.521 with 37 home runs and plus defense at third base with the Braves in 2019, ranked fifth on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s Top 50 free agents (where we predicted a three-year, $75MM deal with Texas).

The Rangers flirted with Wild Card contention in 2019 before fading late in the season and have given every indication to this point that they plan to act aggressively in advance of their move into a new stadium in 2020. General manager and president of baseball operations Jon Daniels plainly stated this week that he intended to look into top-tier free agents, so an earnest pursuit of Donaldson could be the first of many such free-agent endeavors for Texas over the next several months.

Donaldson has already drawn interest from the Dodgers, Phillies, Nationals (who likely view him as a fallback to Anthony Rendon) and Braves in the early stages of free agency. The Braves, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), have been allowing Donaldson to shop around with other clubs before engaging in their own discussion of a multi-year pact.

Rangers Exploring Top-Tier Free Agents

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The Rangers will enter the offseason with their eyes set at the very top prizes of free agency, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Whether they’ll come away with any major targets remains to be seen, but the club has now made clear it’ll pursue the biggest names available.

GM Jon Daniels has been circumspect in prior comments, but today he was ready to announce the reemergence of the Rangers as a major open-market player.

“This year, we are going to look at everything,” he said. “Our goal is to get better, period. There are a couple of spots more [available] than others. We have signed [top free agents] before and at some point I have to suspect we will again.”

It certainly stands to reason that now’s the time to jump back in with both feet. As we explored in previewing the Rangers’ offseason, there’s obvious need in the rotation and at third base — the two loaded areas on which this year’s free-agent class. And the club seems to have the payroll space needed to make something big happen, particularly with a shiny new ballpark coming online.

In our ranking of the top fifty free agents, we predicted the Rangers would land a notable third baseman and starting pitcher — while factoring in the market for quite a few of the top free agents. It’s tough to say whether the Texas org will ultimately be a significant player for expected nine-figure free agents such as Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, but all are plausible targets. Indeed, Grant reports that the club has already chatted with agent Scott Boras about both of those players, which certainly suggests the Rangers want to throw their hat in the ring.

NL West Notes: Friedman, Giants, Oracle Park, Padres

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As the Padres unveil some sharp new uniforms, let’s look at some news from around the NL West…

  • It has been close to a month since Andrew Friedman said he was close to finalizing a contract extension to remain as the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, though there hasn’t since been any word about a deal.  There doesn’t appear to be any real reason for concern, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets, as the two sides are “still dotting I’s and crossing T’s” on the new contract.  Friedman has also been battling the flu for the past week.
  • Construction has begun on Oracle Park’s new bullpens, which will result in a slightly moved-in portion of the outfield fence, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  Relievers for both the Giants and visiting clubs will no longer have to warm up in foul territory, as the new bullpens will be located behind the center field and right-center field fences.  As a result, the area of fence that runs across center field into the “Triples Alley” triangle will be lowered by about a foot and moved four-to-six feet closer to home plate.  The apex of the triangle will also be a bit shorter to home plate than its current 421-foot distance.
  • Also from Schulman (Twitter links), he reports that as of Friday night, the Giants still hadn’t made a decision in their managerial search, though one should be coming relatively soon.  Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and former Phillies manager Gabe Kapler are reportedly the final three candidates in the running.
  • The Padres had some interest in Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara last summer, so Dennis Lin and Jamey Newberg of the Athletic (subscription required) tried to figure out a Mazara trade package that could help both clubs, in a lengthy exploration of how San Diego and Texas match up as trade partners.  Some obvious links exist between the two franchises — Padres GM A.J. Preller and new manager Jayce Tingler both came to San Diego from the Texas organization, giving the Friars a lot of familiarity with Rangers players on both the MLB and minor league rosters.  Lin and Newberg settle on a scenario that would see Mazara and right-hander Jonathan Hernandez go to the Rangers for Joey Lucchesi and catching prospect Blake Hunt.

Rangers, Phillies Reportedly Interested In Josh Donaldson

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As the offseason drew near, it became obvious that star third baseman Josh Donaldson could again be a major early target. Teams wishing for top-level production without the lengthy commitment will be vying for the veteran.

At least two clubs — the Rangers and Phillies — are already making their interest known, according to reports from Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter) and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Both were among the best on-paper fits entering the open market, as we noted in the course of our list of the top fifty free agents.

Before those and other lurking organizations can put in their bids, Donaldson will have to formally decline the qualifying offer he was issued by the Braves. That’s a formality, but it’ll keep the offers off the table until November 14th. (Interested teams can chat with Donaldson’s reps in the meantime, it’s worth noting.)

[RELATED: 2019-20 Offseason Calendar]

Last winter, the Braves were able to lure Donaldson with a one-year, $24MM offer. But that came on the heels of an injury-riddled campaign for the former MVP, who more than made good on the hefty bet placed by the Atlanta organization with a strong and healthy 2019 season.

Donaldson is a month away from his 34th birthday. And he wasn’t quite at the height of his powers in the just-completed campaign. But he was an outstanding performer against any measure other than his own top-of-class ceiling. Over 659 plate appearances, Donaldson turned in a .259/.379/.521 batting line (132 wRC+) with 37 home runs and a healthy 15.2% walk rate.

It wasn’t just a return with the bat. Depending upon one’s defensive metric of choice, he was either a good or excellent performer at the hot corner, resulting in something like a 5 or 6 WAR season. If you’re not a fan of the glove grades … let’s just say the former Athletics and Blue Jays superstar pretty much looked like his old self in all respects.

Donaldson is a fiery leader who would certainly light a spark for these or other organizations. He’s also going to hit the market carrying draft compensation as an added cost of signing him. That always must be factored into an open-market offer, though it’s perhaps of particular note for the Rangers and Phillies. The former team is arguably not quite ready for a full push for contention, though the new Texas field (synthetic though it may be) could desperately use some of the rain that Donaldson is wont to bring. As for the Phils, they’re putting out word that they’re loath to surrender more draft picks this offseason. There may be something to that, but it’s also plainly a wiser public statement than last winter’s unintentional slogan.

Rangers Outright Tim Federowicz

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The Rangers have outrighted catcher Tim Federowicz, per a club announcement. He elected free agency rather than taking an assignment at Triple-A.

The 32-year-old Federowicz joined the Rangers in a June trade with the Indians and ultimately added to Texas’ offensive struggles behind the plate. He wound up batting just .160/.213/.347 in 83 trips to the plate with the Rangers, though he did hit four home runs. The well-traveled Federowicz produced even less for the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate in Nashville, where he slashed .140/.190/.193 in 63 plate appearances. But he was far better with the Indians’ top minor league club, hitting .278/.353/.411 in 103 PA.

Factoring in his latest minor league performance, Federowicz owns an impressive .297/.367/.487 line with 69 HRs in almost 2,100 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level. Considering his next contract is very likely to be a minor league deal, he’ll try to build on his lifetime Triple-A numbers next year and put a below-average 2019 season behind him.

Mariners Claim Phillips Valdez

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The Mariners announced today that they have claimed righty Phillips Valdez off waivers from the Rangers. He becomes the latest player to be pared from the Texas 40-man roster.

Valdez, who’ll soon turn 28, cracked the majors briefly last year for 16 innings of relief. His fastball-change combination wasn’t exceedingly effective in his first taste at the game’s highest level, as he generated only an 8.9% swinging-strike rate, but Valdez showed that he can induce grounders against the world’s best hitters (53.3%).

Though he debuted in a relief capacity, Valdez has spent much of his time in the upper minors as a starter. It remains to be seen how the M’s will use him — or even whether they’ll keep him on their 40-man roster all offseason long — but he will help pad the Seattle organization’s pitching depth.

Rangers To Decline Club Options On Nate Jones, Shawn Kelley, Welington Castillo

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The Rangers are planning to decline their 2020 club options on newly-acquired catcher Welington Castillo and right-handers Nate Jones and Shawn Kelley, The Athletic’s Levi Weaver reports (Twitter link).  Castillo will be bought out for $500K rather than his $8MM salary for 2020.  Jones will receive a $1.25MM buyout rather than $3.75MM, and Kelley will get $250K in buyout money rather than $2.5MM in 2020.

Both Castillo and Jones came from the White Sox in trades that were ultimately more about the international bonus money that came into the Rangers’ coffers rather than anything the two veteran players brought to the table.  Jones underwent right forearm surgery last season and was already on the 60-day injured list at the time of the deadline day trade, never suiting up for Texas in a game.  With this much uncertainty surrounding his health, and Jones’ checkered injury history also looming as a big factor, it perhaps isn’t surprising that the Rangers decided to move on and explore less-risky relief options.

As for Kelley, he said in September that he was planning to retire if his option wasn’t picked up, so today’s news could mark the end of the right-hander’s Major League career.  Kelley spent time on the IL due to a biceps injury and a bacterial infection last season, and posted a 4.94 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 3.91 K/BB rate over 47 1/3 innings when healthy.  If this is indeed the end, Kelley has enjoyed a very solid career over 11 seasons as a Major League reliever, posting a 3.80 ERA over 464 2/3 IP and banking over $25MM in career earnings.

Rangers Acquire Welington Castillo

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The Rangers have acquired catcher Welington Castillo and international draft bonus pool money from the White Sox in exchange for minor league outfielder and corner infielder Jonah McReynolds, as per Rangers executive VP of communications John Blake (Twitter link).  Texas has also outrighted left-hander Jesse Biddle and outfielder Zack Granite to Triple-A, with Biddle first being reinstated from the 60-day injured list.

The Rangers will get $250K in international bonus funds, as per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link), which seems to have been the team’s real incentive for the trade.  Texas is expected to decline Castillo’s $8MM club option and instead pay him a $500K buyout.

In essence, the White Sox decided to save that $500K of Major League payroll in favor of giving up $250K in international money.  It could be that the Sox also simply decided McReynolds was of more interest to them than any other prospects who might arise on the international market.

Castillo became expendable in Chicago after he hit only .209/.267/.417 over 251 PA in 2019, losing playing time to James McCann in the process.  This comes on the heels of a 2018 season that saw Castillo post some respectable numbers (94 OPS+, 96 wRC+) for a catcher over 181 PA, though that year was marred by an 80-game PED suspension.

While the $8MM salary was too rich for the Rangers’ liking, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see the team have an interest in Castillo at a lower price.  While Castillo struggled at the plate last year, his numbers still represent an improvement over what the current Texas catching corps (Jeff Mathis, Jose Trevino, Isiah Kiner-Falefa) produced in 2019.  Then again, the Rangers could also choose to stand pat at catcher since they have several other areas to address this winter.

McReynolds, who turns 24 in December, was a 13th-round pick for the Rangers in the 2016 draft.  He has a .217/.285/.322 slash line over 637 PA in his first four pro seasons, the last three of which have been spent at low A-ball.  He has played all over the diamond as a professional, though spent much of 2019 focused on third base and first base.

AL Notes: Vogelbach, Rangers, Red Sox, A’s

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With the 2019 MLB season officially wrapping up in a matter of hours, much of the league is fully turned toward the upcoming offseason. We’ll track some American League news here.

  • Daniel Vogelbach started 49 games at first base for the Mariners in 2019, but that’s not likely to happen again, reports Corey Brock of the Athletic. Never regarded as an especially strong defender, some in the Mariners’ organization believe Vogelbach’s offensive downturn in the season’s second half (71 wRC+, compared to a 136 wRC+ in the first half) was related to his playing the field more than was ideal. With Vogelbach looking like a pure DH, the Mariners could again turn first base over to Austin Nola, a 29 year-old rookie who slashed .269/.342/.454 in 267 plate appearances down the stretch. Nola’s capable of bouncing all around the diamond, including catching, and is probably best served as a multi-positional piece. Fortunately, top first base prospect Evan White is on the doorstep of the majors and has a chance to win the job early, perhaps even out of spring training, Brock adds.
  • The Red Sox could be facing payroll constraints and have a number of high-priced but effective starting pitchers. With that in mind, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News hears that the Rangers have internally kicked around the idea of pursuing one of those arms in trade. Texas is planning to increase payroll in 2020, after all. While much of that attention has focused on a potential pursuit of Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon in free agency, that flexibility can certainly be put to use in trade as well. Grant speculates that any of Chris Sale, David Price, or Nathan Eovaldi could be targets. Of course, given the caliber of players (particularly Sale and Price) and amount of money involved, any trade scenario would be extremely complex.
  • Speaking of the Red Sox, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe takes a fascinating look at the career of Brian O’Halloran. Part of the four-person interim front office crew (alongside Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero and Zack Scott) who ran baseball operations between the departure of Dave Dombrowski and the hiring of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, O’Halloran was promoted to general manager at the time of Bloom’s hiring. Speier’s piece, certainly worth reading in full, is rife with quotes from O’Halloran’s colleagues lauding his work ethic and aptitude and details his rise from volunteer to jack-of-all-trades within the organization.
  • The A’s have an uncertain mix at second base, and three young players have a chance to stake their claim to the job next spring, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Sheldon Neuse, Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo should all have a shot at earning the job, assuming none are traded in the coming months. Jurickson Profar may, too, Slusser notes, although it’s possible he’ll end up elsewhere following a disappointing season with a projected $5.8MM arbitration salary. Slusser doesn’t foreclose the possibility of an outside addition, something explored by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne in his A’s offseason outlook, but it’s nonetheless notable to hear the organization continues to have faith in its young infield options.
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