The Opener

On the heels of baseball’s $700MM man making his decision, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Fallout of Ohtani’s decision:

Shohei Ohtani is set to become a Dodger on a record-shattering $700MM deal. With the biggest question of the offseason answered, there’s plenty of ripple effects that will impact the remainder of the offseason. It’s not yet clear whether Ohtani has undergone a physical and his contract with the Dodgers has been finalized, and L.A. will need to clear a spot on its 40-man roster to accommodate the addition of Ohtani once those final steps have happened. Looking beyond the Dodgers, the teams that missed out on Ohtani — the Blue Jays, Angels, Cubs, and Giants are among the teams that were involved in the bidding process — will need to look elsewhere as they attempt to improve ahead of next season. That could allow the markets for other top players, such as center fielder Cody Bellinger, right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and left-hander Blake Snell, to come into focus over the coming days.

2. When will the rumored Dodgers-Yankees deal be completed?

An unusual report surfaced yesterday, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal indicating that the Dodgers and Yankees were working on a trade that would send two players on L.A.’s 40-man roster to the Yankees in exchange for a prospect in the Yankees organization who is not on the 40-man. The deal would clear the aforementioned roster spot needed to finalize Ohtani’s contract while also making room for right-hander Joe Kelly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post heard the same, adding that the Yankees will pick up an “end of roster pitcher” who could provide depth lost by the inclusion of depth arms Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito in the Juan Soto trade while also adding an additional prospect. It seems likely that the specifics of the deal should be available in the near future.

3. Could the relief market be picking up?

Yesterday saw a pair of veteran free agent southpaws come off the board as left-hander Andrew Chafin reunited with the Tigers in Detroit while Will Smith rejoined the team for whom he made his major league debut in Kansas City. With those two arms off the board, will the relief market continue to heat up? Closer Josh Hader headlines the class, while flamethrowing 27-year-old Jordan Hicks, breakout righty Robert Stephenson and NPB relief ace Yuki Matsui are among the other notable names who’ve yet to sign. The Cubs, Cardinals, Astros, and Rangers are among the many teams known to be searching for relief help at this point in the offseason.

With the Winter Meetings now in the rear view mirror, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will the Orioles change hands?

The Orioles are coming off a sensational season that saw them post an AL-best record of 101-61 as the core of young talent cultivated by GM Mike Elias and his front office in recent years finally came to fruition. While the club seems sure to once again be a force to be reckoned with in 2024, recent news created some off-the-field uncertainty for the Orioles’ regarding their future. Reporting indicated yesterday afternoon that David Rubenstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, was in talks to acquire the Orioles from the Angelos family. It’s unknown at what level those talks are occurring, but a change in ownership as the Orioles enter their competitive window could be a game changer for a club that (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts) has posted a bottom-five payroll in the majors each of the past five seasons.

2. How much do the Diamondbacks have left to spend?

After reportedly agreeing to a four-year, $80MM contract with left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to shore up the club’s rotation, the Diamondbacks have dipped their toes into uncharted territory with regards to their payroll. The reigning NL champions have never posted a payroll higher than $131MM (per Cot’s) and yet RosterResource now projects the club for a $133MM payroll in 2023 as things currently stand. Will GM Mike Hazen and his front office have more room to spend as they follow up on last year’s deep postseason run? If there is additional payroll space in Arizona, the club is reportedly interested in offensive additions, including at DH.

3. Contracts waiting to be finalized:

Several contracts from the winter meetings have not yet been finalized and formally announced by their clubs at this point. Of particular noted are the pending one-year deal between utilityman Nick Senzel and the Nationals as well as the reported three-year agreement between infielder Jeimer Candelario and the Reds, as the deals would leave Washington and Cincinnati without any remaining space on their 40-man roster. That’ll force them to make corresponding moves for future additions to the 40-man this offseason. Other deals that have not yet been made official include the one between Arizona and Rodriguez as well as yesterday’s pact between the Mets and right-hander Jorge Lopez.

On the heels of last night’s blockbuster trade and a pair of notable free-agent signings, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today…

1. What’s next for the Yankees?

The Yankees hearkened back to their Evil Empire days with yesterday’s blockbuster acquisition of Juan Soto, who came to the Bronx alongside Trent Grisham in a trade sending five players back to the Padres. The Yanks now have a projected $278MM payroll and an even heftier $290MM worth of luxury-tax obligations, but it doesn’t seem they’re done. Because the Yankees traded four pitchers — current starter Michael King, depth arms Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez, and top prospect Drew Thorpe — in order to add Soto, further maneuvering to bring some starting pitching into the fold seems likely. That could even be a high-end arm. Yoshinobu Yamamoto remains a free agent, and he’s slated to meet with the Yankees on Monday. They’ve also been tied to a (much) lower-cost reunion with rebound candidate Frankie Montas after an injury-ruined Yankees tenure.

2.  Will the Reds move an infielder for pitching help?

There’d been plenty of talk about the Reds possibly trading Jonathan India even before last night — though president of baseball operations Nick Krall has worked to downplay it. Cincinnati already had a wealth of infield talent in the form of India, Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte, Elly De La Cruz and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all having reached the big leagues. Wednesday evening’s surprise addition of Jeimer Candelario on a three-year deal likely pushes Steer into left field on a full-time basis. Even still, that leaves the Reds with six infielders for four spots — five if you include a potential rotational usage of the designated hitter spots.

There’s plenty of versatility among the bunch. Candelario can play both corners. De La Cruz can play third and short, as can Marte. McLain can play both middle infield spots. Krall spoke just yesterday about India possibly moving around the infield in a utility capacity. And, of course, injuries are a near inevitability for any big league club. Still, as the Reds look to bolster their rotation, it’s hard not to wonder whether that infield depth will be used to facilitate a trade. They’ve balked at the price for Dylan Cease thus far and might be loath to part with a controllable infielder for one year of either Shane Bieber or Tyler Glasnow, but there could yet be other creative opportunities for Cincinnati to explore. The Marlins are again listening on their bevy of arms, for instance, and with so much infield talent to peddle, Krall might be able to convince another team that’s not an obvious seller of starting pitching to part with an unexpected arm.

3. All eyes (still) on Shohei:

Shohei Ohtani continues to hold up the top end of the free-agent and trade markets, to varying extents. However, he’s ostensibly met with the majority (if not all) of his suitors by now, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggested yesterday that Ohtani is “expected” to make a decision on his free agent destination before the conclusion of this weekend. The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants and Angels are believed to be finalists, and Cubs president Jed Hoyer earlier this week denied reports that his club has become pessimistic in its quest to sign the two-way star.

As the Winter Meetings continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Will the Yankees land Soto?

The Yankees came into the offseason with a clear need for a left-handed bat to add to their outfield, and they filled that hole last night by acquiring Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox. Even after landing an outfielder from their arch-rivals, however, the club still appears to be in on superstar Juan Soto. While talks between the Bronx and San Diego appeared to stall out last week, there’s been plenty of indications that the sides would continue talking during the Winter Meetings this week. According to Andy Martino of SNY, the sides were engaged in discussions as recently as late last night. There was no deal ultimately reported overnight, but could Soto be on the move before the Winter Meetings come to a close tomorrow morning?

2. What are the Cubs’ plans?

Yesterday was a strange day for Cubs fans, as reports early in the afternoon indicated that the club was losing optimism regarding its hopes of landing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani. Later in the evening, however, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer refuted the report, leaving the club’s plans going forward uncertain. What’s more, Ohtani is far from the only impact player the Cubs have been connected to in recent days. Rumors of Chicago’s interest in Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow resurfaced yesterday, while reports connecting first baseman Rhys Hoskins and third baseman Matt Chapman to the club could suggest some alternative hitters of interest should Chicago indeed miss out on Ohtani.

3. The Rule 5 Draft is today:

As part of the final day of the Winter Meetings, the annual Rule 5 Draft will take place at 1pm CT this afternoon. International players and high school draft picks who signed in 2019 and college draft picks signed in 2020 who have not yet been added to their club’s 40-man roster are vulnerable in today’s draft, where any club can select them for a $100K fee. If the player does not stick on their new club’s 26-man roster for the entire season, he must be offered back to his original club for $50K. Teams must have open space on their 40-man roster to select a player in the draft, meaning the Rays, Rockies, and Royals would each need to clear space on their 40-man roster before the draft begins in order to participate.

Players selected in the Rule 5 draft occasionally go on to impact their team in the future, with Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander and Red Sox right-hander Garrett Whitlock among the most prominent recent examples. Giants catcher Blake Sabol and A’s first baseman Ryan Noda highlighted last season’s class of Rule 5 picks who remained in their new organizations permanently. Sabol slashed .235/.301/.394 across 110 games with San Francisco last year, while Noda posted a .229/.364/.406 slash line as the starting first baseman for the A’s.

As baseball’s busiest time of the offseason approaches, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:

1. Winter Meetings on the horizon:

The main attraction of MLB’s offseason, the Winter Meetings, are set to begin this weekend. From the time executives, agents, players and owners arrive in Nashville on Sunday until they depart this coming Thursday, a flurry of activity is expected to get underway to truly kick off what has to this point been a relatively quiet offseason. Of course, the name poised to receive the most attention over the next week is two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, but other top free agents like Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well as trade candidates like Juan Soto and Dylan Cease also figure to be hot-button topics of conversation. Be sure to check back with MLBTR throughout the coming week as we provide round-the-clock coverage of the Meetings from the moment they begin.

2. How will the Rangers’ payroll restrictions shape the offseason?

In recent years, the Rangers have been perhaps the most active team on the free agent market, landing superstars Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jacob deGrom across the past two winters while also making smaller signings such as Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi. With the team coming off its first World Series championship in organizational history, many expected the club to once again be at the forefront of the winter. That may not prove to be the case, however, as GM Chris Young downplayed the club’s financial capabilities this offseason, indicating the club may focus on more complementary additions while sticking with the core they currently have in place.

Those comments put into question not only the club’s ability to pursue Ohtani, but also their ability to land other top pieces they’ve been connected to such as Jordan Montgomery and Josh Hader. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Texas committed around $500MM in free agent dollars during the 2021-22 offseason before following up with an additional sum north of $200MM the following offseason. A splashy move for a player such as Hader could still come in well below those numbers, even when paired with additional complementary moves. Still, with the Rangers seemingly poised to sit out the very top of the market for the first time in years, it could create an opportunity for other clubs to establish themselves as contenders for the league’s marquee talents.

3. MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard goes live:

In case you missed it yesterday, the leaderboard for our annual free agent prediction contest is now live! You can find the link to the leaderboard here. With just seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents currently signed, Tom Diesman currently leads the pack with an impressive five correct picks. Meanwhile, MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern leads the staff with three correct picks.

The hot stove is heating up with a notable overnight signing. Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Is a Cease trade on the horizon?

With the White Sox openly considering deals for any and all players on their roster, right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the hottest names on the rumor mill to this point in the offseason. Cease’s trade candidacy began to escalate somewhat yesterday, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi even suggesting that it’s possible a deal could be in place before the start of the Winter Meetings this weekend. The Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, and Orioles have all been publicly connected to Cease, whose trade market we examined earlier this month.

While Cease is coming off an uneven 2023 campaign that saw him post a 4.58 ERA despite a solid 3.72 FIP, he owns a much stronger 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the past three seasons and could have more appeal to some clubs as a target than other arms rumored to be available such as Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow due to the fact that he’s arbitration eligible for both the 2024 and ’25 campaigns.

2. What’s next for the Reds?

The Reds have mostly sat out free agency in recent years, with zero players signed to multi-year contracts since the 2019-20 offseason that saw them bring in Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama, and Wade Miley on multi-year pacts. That inactivity changed yesterday, however, as the club reportedly agreed to terms with two right-handers on two-year contracts: reliever Emilio Pagan and swingman Nick Martinez. The moves help to shore up a pitching staff that proved to be the primary culprit behind the Reds missing the postseason with an 82-80 record in 2023 despite the emergence of a core of young players like Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, and Elly De La Cruz (among others).

While the combined guarantee of $42MM to Pagan and Martinez represents a substantial financial outlay relative to Cincinnati’s recent spending habits, the club likely has plenty of room to add further salary; RosterResource projects their 2024 payroll at just $71MM — $16MM below their 2023 payroll and more than $50MM below the club’s all-time high payroll of $126MM in 2019, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

3. Outstanding DH Award winner announced:

MLB’s awards season will conclude tonight with the announcement of this year’s Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award winner. The winner will be announced at 5pm CT this evening on MLB Network. While the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, and Marcell Ozuna all had excellent seasons at DH in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the award going to anyone other than free agent superstar Shohei Ohtani. If Ohtani does take home the hardware, it’ll be his third consecutive season doing so. That’s more consecutive wins than any player other than David Ortiz, who won the award five seasons in a row from 2003-07. Martinez himself won the award five times between 1995 to 2001, though never more than twice consecutively.

As the Winter Meetings approach, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Brewers facing big decisions:

Few teams in baseball are facing as wide an array of possible outcomes this offseason as the Brewers. After losing longtime manager Craig Counsell to the division rival Cubs and non-tendering injured ace Brandon Woodruff earlier this month, the club is facing major decisions on the futures of right-hander Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames, both of whom are slated to hit free agency after the 2024 season. In a recent poll of MLBTR readers nearly 78% of respondents suggested the club should move Burnes, who has spoken candidly about the lack of extension negotiations between the sides.

On the other hand, the club is the reigning NL Central champion and would likely have trouble fending off up-and-coming clubs like the Reds and Cubs next season if they were to lose both Burnes and Woodruff in the same offseason. As Milwaukee brass ponders whether to maximize the club’s odds in 2024 or build for the long term, the club is simultaneously discussing a precedent-setting pre-debut extension with top outfield prospect Jackson Chourio, a move that could extend the club’s window of control over a potentially elite talent while accelerating his path to the majors.

2. When will the trade market for starters kick into motion?

Burnes isn’t the only noteworthy ace-caliber arm who could be on the trade market this offseason. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, and 2020 AL Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber have gotten plenty of buzz as likely trade candidates so far this offseason, with reports of interest from rival clubs ramping up in recent days. Could a team look to make an impact addition to their starting rotation ahead of the Winter Meetings, which begin on Sunday evening? The Braves, Dodgers, Cubs, and Reds are the clubs that have been most frequently connected to the front-of-the-rotation arms known to be available in trade, though plenty of teams would benefit from such an addition.

3. Reliever of the Year winners to be announced:

The winners of the league’s Reliever of the Year awards, named after Trevor Hoffman in the NL and Mariano Rivera in the AL, are set to be announced this evening at 5pm CT on MLB Network. The reigning winner of the award in the NL, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, missed the entire 2023 campaign due to injury. That leaves the door wide open for other top arms such as left-handed free agent Josh Hader (1.28 ERA), Brewers righty Devin Williams (1.53 ERA), and Pirates right-hander David Bednar (2.00 ERA) to claim the award this season. Meanwhile, the AL’s top crop of relief arms this year features reigning winner Emmanuel Clase (3.22 ERA), who lead the league with 44 saves this season for the Guardians. However, the likes of Orioles righty Felix Bautista (1.48 ERA) and Blue Jays right-hander Jordan Romano (2.90 ERA) posted stronger run-prevention numbers than Clase this season.

With the Winter Meetings just five days away, here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for today:

1. KBO asks for Go posting:

The Korea Baseball Organization requested the posting of LG Twins closer Woo Suk Go last night, per a report from Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. The right-hander is the second KBO player to begin the posting process this winter, following Kiwoom Heroes outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, who coincidentally is Go’s brother-in-law. Lee isn’t expected to be officially posted for big league clubs until the calendar flips to December, and the timeline for Go’s official posting is unclear at this point. When Go is posted, clubs will have 30 days to negotiate a contract with the right-hander. Go, 25, sports a mid-90s fastball that at times touches 98 and routinely posts high strikeout rates in the KBO but struggled with his control last year, walking 11.6% of batters faced. He figures to join a right-handed relief class headlined by Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.

2. What’s next in St. Louis?

The Cardinals completed the primary goal of the offseason of adding three starters to their rotation yesterday by signing veteran right-hander Sonny Gray to a three-year deal. Gray joins fellow offseason signings Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson as well as incumbent veterans Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz in the projected St. Louis rotation. The trio of signings push the club’s projected payroll in 2024 up to just over $193MM, per RosterResource. That payroll figure would be an all-time high for the club, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

While the club reportedly intends to pursue at least two bullpen additions this offseason, it’s unclear if the club how much, if any, payroll space the club has available for those additions. Of course, St. Louis has a deep positional mix from which they could deal to both improve their bullpen and clear space on the payroll for another addition if they so chose, particularly in the outfield where Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson are both widely regarded as likely trade candidates.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

With the Winter Meetings just days away and the hot stove beginning to sizzle, do you have any burning questions in your mind about your favorite team or one of the offseason’s many free agents? If so, tune in at 1pm CT today for a live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will let you participate live or read the transcript once the chat has concluded.