Reds, Padres Reportedly Leading Shogo Akiyama Bidding
DECEMBER 27, 7:42pm: Aside from the Reds and Padres, it’s “thought” that the Diamondbacks, Cubs and maybe even the Blue Jays still have interest in Akiyama, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.
6:55pm: The bidding is largely down to the Reds and Padres, according to a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link; h/t Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, on Twitter). It seems the expectation is that he’ll reach a decision before the new year.
5:50am: The Reds have a multi-year offer to Akiyama on the table and are the likeliest landing spot for the 31-year-old, per a Friday report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link).
DECEMBER 26: When he declared his intentions to come to the majors, Japanese center fielder Shogo Akiyama entered an interesting place on this winter’s market. With so few viable center fielders available, and no shortage of demand, he offered an intriguing new possibility.
Interest has been fairly robust from the outset for the long-time Seibu Lions standout. And the chatter — at least, in Japanese outlets — has increased of late after Yahoo Japan reported (Japanese language link) that the left-handed-hitting 31-year-old would reach a decision in late December. If Akiyama has settled on a contract, it’s not yet known. But there are a few new hints to chew on. And other recent developments have had an impact on his market.
Yahoo Japan (Japanese language link) cites the Padres as a leading new contender. While it’s tough to assess the merits of those reports, they’re each rather notable for the impact on the market at large. The Pads only just added a somewhat similar player in Trent Grisham; it’d seem a move on Akiyama might portend a trade of another left-handed-hitting outfielder. Plus, adding salary would increase the team’s desire to move some of the money owed Wil Myers.
Then again, Nikkan Sports (Japanese language link) labels the Reds the likeliest landing spot for Akiyama, citing the organization’s persistent interest. The possibilities are all the more interesting with regard to the Reds, who have seemingly been preparing to utilize Nick Senzel in center but could take any number of different directions upon adding Akiyama. There certainly could be implications for the club’s interest in right-handed-hitting corner bats such as Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. With six left-handed-hitting outfielders on the 40-man, the Cincinnati club would at minimum have to do some roster maintenance.
The Cubs and Diamondbacks have long been known to have interest. But it’s worth wondering to what extent either club is a legitimate possibility at this stage. The Cubs are reportedly sifting through pocket change and don’t appear to have any salary-freeing swaps on the immediate horizon. And the Arizona organization just added Kole Calhoun, which gives the team two well-compensated, left-handed-hitting corner outfielders around switch-hitting center fielder Ketel Marte (although he could shift back to second base if Akiyama lands in Arizona).
Another team long known to have interest, the Rays, also made a significant new left-handed-hitting addition to its outfield mix. Fellow Japanese standout Yoshitomo Tsutsugo secured a relatively surprising two-year, $12MM deal (plus a $2.4MM release fee) with the Tampa Bay organization. To what extent the Rays are involved at the moment isn’t entirely clear. But the team reportedly remains interested in Akiyama, even with multiple other left-handed-hitting options — including regular center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — still on hand.
While there’s still quite a lot of uncertainty, the foregoing discussion does indicate the layers of intrigue at play. In all likelihood, an Akiyama signing will be preceded by and/or will trigger some potentially notable corresponding transactions.
Blue Jays Sign Hyun-Jin Ryu
Two and a half months after GM Ross Atkins vowed to find pitching that could “contribute in significant ways,” the Blue Jays have formally announced the signing of one of the best pitchers on the market, left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, to a four-year contract. The Boras Corporation client will reportedly be guaranteed $80MM, which will be paid out evenly at $20MM per season. Ryu’s deal doesn’t have any opt-out provisions but is said to contain a partial no-trade clause.
The news ends a spirited market for Ryu’s services, as at least six teams (the Dodgers, Angels, Braves, Padres, Cardinals, and Twins) were all known to have some degree of interest in the southpaw this offseason. While all of those teams were either playoff clubs in 2019 or are planning to contend in 2020, it was the rebuilding Blue Jays who made the big strike, signaling that their own effort to return to contention is coming sooner rather than later. The Jays were known to be looking at both the top tier and the lower tiers of the pitching market, though the signing still comes as a surprise, given how Toronto’s previous acquisitions had been more modest.
Ryu joins Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, and Shun Yamaguchi as newly-acquired members of Toronto’s rotation, completely overhauling a starting staff that was expected to be a major point of emphasis this winter. Yamaguchi could wind up in the bullpen if the Jays go with some combination of in-house candidates Matt Shoemaker, Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay, or Jacob Waguespack for the final two rotation places. Star prospect Nate Pearson is also expected to make his big league debut at some point in 2020, so one of those rotation spots could ultimately be earmarked for him down the stretch, or the Jays could ease Pearson into the majors as a reliever.
While Pearson may be the ace of the future, Ryu is now firmly the ace of the present. The lefty finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting last season on the heels of a league-best 2.32 ERA and 1.2 BB/9, as well as a 6.79 K/BB rate, 8.0 K/9, and 50.4% grounder rate. ERA predictors weren’t quite as impressed (3.10 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 3.77 SIERA) with Ryu’s performance, while his modest 90.6mph fastball finished in the bottom 11th percentile in both fastball velocity and spin rate.
On the plus side of the Statcast coin, Ryu was also one of the league’s best pitchers in limiting hard-hit balls and exit velocity, and his .263 wOBA was only slightly lower than his .281 xwOBA. Despite the lack of fastball velocity, Ryu still had the 26th most effective heater of any qualified pitcher in the sport according to Fangraphs’ Pitch Value metrics, while his changeup was one of the ten most effective pitches in all of baseball in 2019.
Perhaps most importantly, Ryu also tossed 182 2/3 innings last year, his highest workload since his 2013 debut season in MLB and the first time he’d topped even the 126 2/3 inning plateau since 2014. Ryu had only a couple of minimal injured list stints for minor neck and groin soreness in 2019, as opposed to the much more serious setbacks that plagued him earlier in his career. Shoulder and elbow surgeries limited Ryu to just a single game in 2015-16, he missed close to three months in 2018 due to a torn groin, and IL stints for foot and hip problems limited him to 126 2/3 IP in 2017.
This injury history and Ryu’s age (he turns 33 in March) were reasons why MLBTR projected him to only land a three-year, $54MM deal, despite his superb 2019 campaign and his overall strong track record in 740 1/3 career innings in the majors. The Blue Jays could have been compelled to go to four years to convince Ryu to join a team that didn’t offer as clear a path to immediate contention as some of his other suitors.
Even with Ryu signed, it remains to be seen if the Jays will emerge as a threat to return to the playoffs after three straight losing seasons. The team will be counting on its young core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Danny Jansen to all take steps forward, while more experienced hands like Randal Grichuk (who had been Toronto’s highest-paid player prior to the Ryu signing) and the newly-acquired Travis Shaw will need to improve on mediocre 2019 performances.
The Ryu signing also re-aligns expectations for the rest of the Jays’ offseason. On paper, this could be Toronto’s version of the Cubs’ deal with Jon Lester prior to the 2015 season — the big-ticket veteran pitching acquisition that indicated the rebuilding Cubs had enough faith in their up-and-coming young team to go for it after a lengthy rebuild. If the Jays are serious about challenging for the postseason as soon as 2020, more substantial veteran upgrades could be made to center field, the bullpen, the first base/DH mix beyond Shaw and Rowdy Tellez, or even the rotation. Closer Ken Giles was widely assumed to be a trade candidate, but now the Blue Jays could perhaps keep Giles for the final year of his contract in order to keep the ninth inning locked down.
The Jays’ current 2020 payroll (as per Roster Resource) projects to be just under $122.2MM, so considering that the 2016-18 clubs all finished the season with payrolls in the $164MM-$167MM range, GM Ross Atkins could have more spending room for further moves. Ryu is the third-highest contract even given out by the franchise, topped only by Vernon Wells‘ $126MM extension in the 2006-07 offseason and the five-year, $82MM free agent deal for Russell Martin prior to the 2015 season.
Ryu is the latest arm to leave what has been a scorching hot market for free agent starting pitchers. Returning to MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, Alex Wood (at #39) is now the highest-ranked starter still on the board, as the 14 pitchers ahead of him have all found new deals before Christmas. As Heyman notes on Twitter, the many teams still looking for rotation upgrades could now be forced to explore the trade market, which could lead to a flurry of deals before Opening Day.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported the deal (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported that Ryu would receive a partial no-trade clause. The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chsholm reported the annual breakdown.
AL Notes: Biggio, Red Sox, Boyd, Angels
We’ll round up a few stories and notes from around the American League on this Christmas afternoon.
- Cavan Biggio could be in line to bounce around the diamond next season for the Blue Jays. The 24-year-old has no problem donning different gloves, he tells Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic. Biggio came up as a second baseman, although questions about his defense there dogged him consistently as a prospect. Last year, Biggio logged MLB starts at first base, second base, left field, and right field, although most of his work indeed came at the keystone. Now, he’d be amenable to logging time at third base and/or in center field next season, too. General Manager Ross Atkins has previously floated Biggio as a possibility to help solidify the Jays’ questionable center field mix, McGrath notes. Manager Charlie Montoyo will surely be looking for ways to get Biggio’s potent bat into the lineup. Thanks to elite plate discipline, Biggio compiled a strong .234/.364/.429 line (114 wRC+) as a rookie.
- First-year Red Sox pitching coach Dave Bush sat down for a Q&A with Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic. He explains that the organization reached out to him to replace Dana LeVangie, rather than his ardently pursuing the position. That should ensure some continuity on the pitching side, as Bush has spent the past three seasons in Boston’s player development department. The longtime Brewer reiterated that Chris Sale is back on a normal offseason program and praised new signee Martín Pérez’s reliability. He also hinted that the organization could further tinker with Pérez’s pitch mix in hopes of unlocking some upside. A new cutter helped Pérez jump off to a fast start in 2019 with the Twins, but a brutal second half led Minnesota to decline his team option.
- The Tigers aren’t actively looking to move staff ace Matthew Boyd, who still has three years of team control remaining. With the free agent market for starting pitching drying up, however, it’s natural to wonder if the teams who lost out on the top hurlers could reengage the Tigers on one of baseball’s prime trade candidates. One such team is the Angels, who have added Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran to their rotation, but still have room to upgrade. The club is monitoring the trade market, Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com tweeted Monday, but the Angels and Tigers haven’t had any recent discussions on Boyd. Of course, there’s ample time for the sides to recommence talks regarding the 28-year-old, who ranked 11th among starters (minimum 100 innings) in strikeout minus walk rate in 2019.
Poll: Which Sub-.500 AL Team’s Having The Best Offseason?
The Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers and Angels each entered the winter amid multiyear playoff droughts and on the heels of sub-.500 showings in 2019. No one from that American League quartet has been a sorrier bunch for longer than the White Sox, owners of an 11-year postseason-less skid. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels have at least been relevant more recently than Chicago, but success has still escaped those other clubs for far too long. However, judging by the teams’ actions in the past weeks, they’ve had their fill of serving as doormats in their league. The offseason has gotten off to rollicking starts for all of these franchises, each of which has made more than one significant addition since the floodgates opened in November.
The Angels, they of the pitiful 72-90 record last season, finally look as if they’re in decent position to capitalize on all-world center fielder Mike Trout‘s presence. They added the foremost position player on the market, third baseman Anthony Rendon, on a whopper of a contract worth $245MM over seven years. The rotation-needy Halos have also picked up a pair of starters in Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran. Neither will be confused for an ace, but they should give the team much-needed competent innings at reasonable prices near the back of its rotation. If you’re a glass-half-empty type, though, you may be unimpressed by the Angels’ lack of a front-line starter pickup (though the return of Shohei Ohtani from Tommy John surgery should be a major help) and/or that they haven’t addressed their problems at catcher yet.
The White Sox, also coming off a 72-win season, have been extremely busy in upgrading their lineup. Their offense produced the third-fewest runs in the AL, but that should change for the better in a year with the signing of star catcher Yasmani Grandal (four years, $73MM). The White Sox also helped their cause by retaining first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu (three years, $50MM), and they’re clinging to hope that 24-year-old outfielder Nomar Mazara (acquired from Texas) will start living up to his immense promise now that he has changed teams. Even with those three in tow, the White Sox might not be done yet on the offensive end. They’re reportedly at the forefront of the sweepstakes for Edwin Encarnacion, yet another slugging 1B/DH, and remain in the mix for outfielder Nicholas Castellanos – possibly the second-best position player left in free agency.
Of course, upgrading at the plate hasn’t been Chicago’s sole focus. The White Sox made a large splash on the pitching side last weekend when they agreed to sign former Cy Young-winning southpaw Dallas Keuchel for three years and $55.5MM. He followed the much more modestly priced Gio Gonzalez as the second accomplished lefty the team signed for its rotation. With those two, ace Lucas Giolito, the high-upside Reynaldo Lopez–Dylan Cease–Michael Kopech trio, and (once he returns from Tommy John surgery) Carlos Rodon, the club actually has plenty to look forward to with regards to its starting staff.
The same can be said for the Blue Jays and Rangers, who have each spent the majority of the offseason bettering their rotations. Toronto, a lowly 67-95 last season, just took a four-year, $80MM gamble on ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu. After offering elite production in his final year as a Dodger, Ryu’s in line to lead a Jays staff that will also consist of fellow new additions Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, Matt Shoemaker (returning from a torn ACL) and perhaps some combination of ex-Japanese star Shun Yamaguchi (yet another just-signed hurler), Trent Thornton, Jacob Waguespack, Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay and stud prospect Nate Pearson. Unlike late last season, after the Jays traded two vet starters (Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez) and their rotation was a barren wasteland, possibilities abound.
On the offensive side, the Jays replaced departed first baseman Justin Smoak (now a Brewer) with ex-Brewer Travis Shaw in the corner infield. It’s hard to see that as an upgrade on paper, though, after the woeful 2019 Shaw had. But for one year and $4MM, it’ll look brilliant if Shaw returns anywhere near the 3.0-WAR production he managed from 2017-18.
As for Texas, this offseason looks like a bit of a mixed bag. The Rangers have not added at third base or catcher, two positions that still look iffy, even though they partook in the Rendon derby and have also been part of Josh Donaldson‘s market. On the other hand, their rotation looks far superior to the 2019 group that got very little outside of the Mike Minor–Lance Lynn duo and played a key role in a 78-84 finish. Those two are back, while two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (acquired from the Indians), Kyle Gibson (three years, $28MM) and Jordan Lyles (two years, $16MM) will round out the quintet. For the first time in a while, it’s fair to say the Rangers’ rotation looks strong one through five.
All of these clubs have been extraordinarily active as they seek ways to move past their longstanding struggles in 2020. In your opinion, though, which has enjoyed the best offseason so far?
(Poll link for app users)
Which sub-.500 AL team's having the best offseason?
-
White Sox 55% (13,938)
-
Angels 19% (4,765)
-
Blue Jays 14% (3,433)
-
Rangers 12% (3,130)
Total votes: 25,266
AL Pitching Notes: Indians, Kluber, Jays, Ryu, Rays, Morton, O’s
The Indians brought an end to the Corey Kluber era earlier this month, trading the right-hander to the Rangers for reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields. On paper, it may not look like a great return for a two-time Cy Young winner, though it turns out teams just weren’t champing at the bit to surrender hauls for Kluber – a 33-year-old’s who expensive ($17.5MM guarantee for 2020) and coming off an injury-marred campaign. Thanks to those factors, when the Indians left this month’s Winter Meetings, the majority of offers they’d received only included players at the Single-A level, Terry Pluto of cleveland.com relays. So, in an effort to stay competitive in 2020, they took a pair of major leaguers (including Clase, whom they hope can blossom into a late-game force). The goal is to use some of the Kluber savings on an infielder, another outfielder and more bullpen help, per Pluto. The Indians may have crossed one of those needs off the list when they agreed to a $6.25MM deal with second baseman Cesar Hernandez on Monday.
- The rebuilding Blue Jays made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason Sunday in agreeing to a four-year, $80MM contract with left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu. While the former Dodger was among the game’s premier pitchers last season, his age (33 in March) and extensive injury history make him an especially risky pickup at such a high price tag. There’s a solid chance the deal will become regrettable for Toronto, Buster Olney of ESPN observes (subscription links), though he nonetheless applauds the Blue Jays for taking a chance in an attempt improve and become more interesting. As those who’ve followed the past few offseasons know, many teams have drawn the ire of fans and media for sitting on the sidelines instead of making earnest efforts to put a more competitive product on the field. At the very least, considering the active winter the Jays have had, they’re trying.
- More from Olney (subscription), who expects Rays righty Charlie Morton to become a hot commodity on the trade market in the next year. There are no indications the Rays, coming off a stellar season thanks in large part to Morton’s elite output, are considering parting with the 36-year-old now. But with so few (or no) sure bets left on the free-agent pitching market, he’d surely bring back a sizable return in a deal at this moment. Morton’s also on a contract that would be appealing to most teams, as he’ll make $15MM in 2020. He has a $15MM option for 2021 that will become guarantee if he spends fewer than 30 days on the injured list, but it’ll likely be a good problem for his employer if it does vest. Morton does not have no-trade protection built into his deal, so Tampa Bay could move him without his permission. However, Olney writes that the Rays have immense respect for the Cy Young contender, and if they do become open to parting with him, they’ll “probably feel out Morton” first.
- Last season was one to forget for Orioles righty David Hess, who logged a 7.09 ERA/7.26 FIP over 80 innings. But Hess told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com he’s working diligently this winter in hopes of landing a rotation spot for 2020. Specifically, Hess followed the lead of teammate John Means by heading to P3 (Premier Pitching & Performance) in St. Louis. As Kubatko explains, P3 “offers personalized baseball training to athletes across the Midwest with the goal of providing instruction and individualized strength training.” Means, who recommended P3 to Hess, used the center’s guidance last offseason and then turned into one of the O’s true bright spots in 2019. Hess informed Kubatko that “this is really the first offseason where I’ve had baseball-specific work outside of just playing catch. Really trying to work on delivery-based stuff. Working on, not necessarily arm strength – I’ve always worked on that – but really cleaning up my arm path. So it’s similar in a lot of ways, but it’s also different. I guess the best way to say it is it’s very hyper focused.”
Blue Jays Showing Interest In David Price
The Blue Jays and Red Sox are discussing a deal that would send veteran starter David Price to Toronto, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. While Rosenthal is quick to note that an official move isn’t close yet, it’s nonetheless notable that Price is in play for a Blue Jays team that has made abundantly clear its desire to upgrade the starting rotation.
The progress of the teams’ negotiations will hinge on Boston’s willingness to cover some portion of the remaining three years and $96MM on Price’s contract. It’s been no secret that the Red Sox, aiming to duck beneath the luxury tax threshold for 2020, are seeking a taker for Price, Nathan Eovaldi, or both. However, the team has simultaneously expressed its disinclination to include a promising piece simply to facilitate a trade. While that would strengthen the return for Price, and likely decrease the amount of cash needed to move him, it would either detract further from the big league roster or eat into an already-thin farm system.
Furthermore, attaching a more attractive player to Price likely isn’t necessary: the Red Sox, for their part, are said to be investigating other options for Price, who has garnered interest from other teams, including the Padres, Cardinals, and Reds, among others. He’s a valuable pitcher, albeit one who hasn’t lived up to the expectations that came with his $217MM price tag. So it makes sense that pitching-needy teams should explore whether they Price can be had for, say, $20MM annually.
From Boston’s point of view, it’s worth nothing that even offloading $20MM of Price’s yearly salary won’t be enough to get them under the tax line. As Rosenthal states, Roster Resource pegs the Sox’ current luxury tax obligations at nearly $238MM, meaning that almost all of Price’s salary would have to come off the books if they are to sneak under the $208MM luxury tax threshold. Of course, that’s part of why Eovaldi and Mookie Betts have also been named as candidates to be traded this winter.
Price, of course, made brief stint with Toronto in 2015, when he was acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. To be sure, remnants from that 2015 team are few and far between, with a new front office and manager in place, as well as a completely refreshed core of youthful position players.
The Jays have been frequently linked to free-agent southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu, who looks like the last remaining top-flight starter on the market. However, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that as many as seven teams are in the running for Ryu’s services, there’s a very real possibility that Toronto will strike out on that front and be forced to pivot to alternate means of improving the rotation. They’ve already added Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson, but lack a real number one after trading Marcus Stroman last year.
AL Notes: Indians, Blue Jays, Farrell, Franco, Astros
It may be a white-knuckle weekend in the Cleveland area, as fans wait to see if submitted offers for cornerstone player Francisco Lindor prove to be sufficient for the Indians‘ front office. It’s already been an offseason of no small intrigue, with the Corey Kluber trade further redefining the direction of the Cleveland franchise. One more question for the team before camp breaks? What to do about their abundance of outfield options. As Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer points out in a Saturday reader mailbag, the Kluber trade, in bringing back Delino DeShields, leaves the club with a whopping nine outfielders on their 40-man roster.
As a careful observer might note, that tally only stands if we consider the DH-bound Franmil Reyes as an outfielder, but it’s a gaggle of on-the-grass options to sort through nonetheless. While each of Greg Allen, Jake Bauers, Daniel Johnson, Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado, Tyler Naquin, Bradley Zimmer, and DeShields has merit, Hoynes is right in pointing out that Mercado may be the only clear-cut starter of the group. If one of Lindor or Mike Clevinger does ultimately end up on the move, perhaps it should come as little surprise if a more stable outfield option comes back the other way.
- Although outsiders might think that Shane Farrell’s hiring as Toronto’s amateur scouting director was aided by his family ties, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet shares that the hire “won’t likely be popular with Blue Jays fans”—in part because many club followers still bristle at the team’s decision to trade Shane’s father John to the rival Red Sox in 2012. Still, Nicholson-Smith shares that the younger Farrell was described as “very intelligent” and a “strong evaluator” by an unnamed NL scout. Then again, it’s not as if any claims of nepotism could have been entertained seriously, considering that the Cubs interviewed Farrell for their VP of Scouting opening just this offseason.
- The Royals‘ decision to pluck Maikel Franco off the wire wasn’t exactly made on a hunch. As Alex Lewis explores in a mailbag for The Athletic, Kansas City evaluators found “a few oddities in Franco’s swing from his more successful seasons (2016-18) to last season (2019) in a video study session”. Lewis shares that the club is “optimistic” that they can fix Franco’s issues–not exactly a ridiculous gambit considering his age (27) and early promise. Lewis also looks back at a story from The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, written around the time Franco was demoted in August, that noted certain adjustments the third baseman made to hit fewer balls on the ground may have been behind an infield popup rate of 23.7 percent at the time of his call-down.
- Recent reunions with Martin Maldonado and Joe Smith has inched the Houston Astros‘ projected payroll very close to the $228MM luxury tax threshold. They would avoid a repeater tax, though a 12% surtax comes with the $20MM overage (the base tax line is set at $208MM for 2020). Jason Martinez at Roster Resource pegs Houston’s luxury tax estimate at just over $137MM, well past that second line and fast approaching the third tax line of $248MM. Given that Houston previously indicated a desire to stay under even the $228MM line, they are probably done shopping for the winter, at the very least as far as position players are concerned, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan.
Mutual Interest Between Blue Jays, Edwin Encarnacion
Earlier this month, the Blue Jays were connected to the likes of Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Justin Smoak and Edwin Encarnacion as they evaluated first base options. Less than two weeks later, both Tsutsugo and Smoak are off the board, but Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that there’s mutual interest between Toronto and Encarnacion.
A match between the two sides would make for a nice reunion angle to sell to fans in what figures to be another transitional year in Toronto. The Jays have added some arms to the pitching staff in Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi, but it’s tough to see them fully bouncing back from last year’s 67-win season — even with a full year of Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio in addition to the looming presence of additional prospects (namely, flamethrower Nate Pearson).
Pitching has been the primary focus for Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins, as he vowed at the onset of the offseason, but the Jays could certainly fit another first base/designated hitter option into the rotation. Rowdy Tellez, 25 in March, currently looks to be in line for regular at-bats on the 1B/DH carousel, but an Encarnacion reunion would surely deepen the lineup and bring a more formidable on-base presence to the fray than Tellez has offered in his young career (.299 OBP in 482 plate appearances).
Encarnacion hit .244/.344/.531 with 34 homers between the Mariners and Yankees last season — a strong output that’s more or less in the lines with what’s come to be expected of one of baseball’s most consistent sluggers. But despite his potent bat, it seems like he could struggle to find suitors willing to make offers commensurate with his production.
Let’s take a look at his potential market.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported last week that six clubs, including an NL team, have expressed interest in Encarnacion. Of course, “interest” is a rather subjective and nebulous term without further context, and it’s a bit hard to find that many teams with a path to a regular role for Encarnacion.
The White Sox met with his agents (per 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine) and could indeed be a sensible fit if they’re comfortable rotating Encarnacion and Jose Abreu at first base. The Blue Jays fit is reasonable, too. The Rangers make some sense as well, but signing Encarnacion basically commits to playing either him or Shin-Soo Choo in the field on a daily basis. It’s not a bad situation, however, particularly given the steady production offered by both.
The rest of the AL West features three teams with firmly set 1B/DH options (A’s, Astros, Angels) as well as another that traded Encarnacion away in 2019 and just signed its hopeful first baseman of the future to a long-term deal (Mariners, Evan White).
Over in the Central, it doesn’t seem likely that rebuilding clubs in Kansas City or Detroit will spend aggressively. The Twins have Nelson Cruz, who didn’t play an inning of defense in 2019, at DH. They’d need to commit to full-time first base reps for Encarnacion, which seems unlikely. The Indians, like the Mariners, have traded Encarnacion in the past calendar year. They also already have Carlos Santana and July acquisition Franmil Reyes in the mix.
In the AL East, the Yankees may prefer to keep their DH slot open to help rotate their corner outfielders, while Luke Voit and Mike Ford are options at first base. The Rays just signed Tsutsugo and have a crowded 1B/DH mix. We know the Orioles aren’t likely to spend on any notable free agent. The Red Sox have J.D. Martinez entrenched at DH and an opening at first base. But, as is the case in relation to the Twins or any NL club, it’s a bit tough to see Encarnacion as an everyday first baseman in his age-37 season. He’s never even played 700 innings at first base in a season.
The Blue Jays, White Sox and Rangers look like the best on-paper fits for Encarnacion, making the mutual interest between the slugger and Toronto all the more notable.
AL East Notes: Panik, Tsutsugo, Roark, Abad, Holmes
The Yankees have had discussions about signing second baseman Joe Panik, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets, as New York continues to look for ways to both add infield depth and add left-handed balance to a lineup that is loaded with righty swingers. Panik is a left-handed bat, though he is coming off a pair of subpar years at the plate — the veteran has only a .249/.311/.334 slash line over 883 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season. These struggles prompted the Giants to part ways with their longtime second baseman last summer, though Panik hit better after catching on with the Mets for 39 games in 2019. The 29-year-old Panik also has the bonus of being a native New Yorker, born in Yonkers and a product of St. John’s University.
With Gleyber Torres likely to shift from second base to shortstop, the keystone could be occupied by DJ LeMahieu if the Yankees don’t prefer to use LeMahieu primarily as a first baseman. Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada are the top in-house options for the utility infield or part-time second base jobs if LeMahieu is indeed slated mostly for first base work, though the Yankees could prefer to be as flexible as possible with LeMahieu based on matchups. In this sense, Panik’s lack of defensive versatility could be a detriment to his chances at a Yankees deal; Panik has played all but one of his 682 MLB games as a second baseman, with the lone exception being one game at first base for San Francisco in 2018.
Here’s more from around the AL East…
- The Rays‘ two-year, $12MM contract with Yoshitomo Tsutsugo wasn’t the highest offer received by the outfielder, though the team’s strong courtship of the Japanese slugger eventually convinced him to come to Florida, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays were the first team to contact Tsutsugo after he was posted by Yokohama, they provided him with a thorough 20-page booklet about the club and the Tampa area, and a six-person crew that included manager Kevin Cash and GM Erik Neander visited Tsutsugo in person prior to the Winter Meetings, while Tsutsugo was working out in Los Angeles. All of the wooing paid off for the Rays, who now welcome a player with 185 homers over his last six seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball.
- The Blue Jays made a similar big push to land Tanner Roark, as the right-hander told reporters (including Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic) that Toronto was the first team to get in contact with his representatives as free agency opened. “They knew what they wanted, and they wanted me and it’s exciting to have someone want you like that,” Roark said. Pitching coach Pete Walker also told McGrath that he and Roark “just seemed to hit it off” during a 25-minute phone call. Roark ended up inking a two-year, $24MM deal with the Jays, and is looking forward to being a veteran leader within Toronto’s young clubhouse.
- The Orioles had several conversations with Fernando Abad before the left-hander signed with the Nationals, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports. With Abad now off the board, the O’s will continue to look for low-cost experience for their bullpen.
- Also from Kubatko, the Orioles have hired Darren Holmes as their new bullpen coach. Holmes worked in the same role with the Rockies for the previous five seasons. A veteran of 13 MLB seasons, Holmes’ playing career included a brief five-game stint as a member of the Orioles in 2000.
Blue Jays Sign Tanner Roark
DECEMBER 18: This deal is now official.
It includes equal $12MM salaries, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports (Twitter links). There are some minor award-based incentives included as well.
DECEMBER 11: The Blue Jays have agreed to a deal with free-agent right-hander Tanner Roark, Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet report. It’s a two-year, $24MM accord, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Roark is a client of Matt Colleran.
This is a better payday than expected for Roark, who MLBTR predicted Toronto would sign to a two-year, $18MM contract at the outset of the offseason. Nevertheless, if Roark’s history is any indication, he should give the Blue Jays some much-needed stability in their rotation. The rebuilding club, whose starting staff looked like an enormous weakness entering the winter, has shown some level of interest in just about every free-agent rotation piece. The Blue Jays have added two so far between Roark and fellow righty Chase Anderson, whom they acquired in a trade with the Brewers, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Toronto pick up yet another notable starter before the offseason’s out.
The 33-year-old Roark will head north after dividing the first seven seasons of his career among Washington, Cincinnati and Oakland. Roark produced sub-3.00 ERA results three times as a member of the Nationals toward the beginning of his career, but he has settled into more of a mid- to back-end type in recent seasons. Roark notched an ERA and a FIP somewhere in the 4.00s in each of the previous three seasons, also totaling 160-plus innings in all of those years.
Most recently, Roark fired 165 1/3 frames between the Reds and Athletics in 2019, when he posted a 4.35 ERA/4.67 FIP with a career-best 8.6 K/9 against 2.78 BB/9, though he did manage a personal-worst groundball rate of 36.2 percent. The latter figure helped lead to a career-worst 15.5 percent home run-to-fly ball rate, but Roark was hardly alone in giving up more long balls than ever during a homer-happy year across the majors.
The Blue Jays are no doubt hopeful Roark’s HR/FB rate will return closer to his lifetime mark of 11.3 percent going forward. Regardless, he’s now the most accomplished starter on a starting staff that bid adieu to Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez in trades over the summer. Among Jays holdovers, only the relatively unproven Jacob Waguespack and Trent Thornton piled up 70 or more innings as starters in 2019.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.