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Blue Jays Place Daulton Varsho On 10-Day IL, Activate Erik Swanson

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Prior to today’s 8-4 win over the Athletics, the Blue Jays placed center fielder Daulton Varsho on the 10-day injured list and activated right-hander Erik Swanson from the 60-day IL to make his season debut.  Left-hander Easton Lucas was optioned to Triple-A and second baseman/outfielder Davis Schneider was called up in the corresponding moves.

Varsho is dealing with a left hamstring strain suffered in Saturday’s game, as he came up limping while rounding second base in an attempt to stretch a double into a triple.  Varsho was immediately removed from the game and an IL placement seemed inevitable, though manager John Schneider told MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters today that Varsho sustained a relatively less-serious Grade 1 strain.

This still means Varsho will miss at least a couple of weeks of action, and it puts him back on the IL for the second time this season.  Varsho had surgery last September on his right rotator cuff, and spent the first month of the 2025 campaign finishing off his injury rehab and getting his throwing arm back in game-ready shape.  Since making his season debut on April 29, Varsho is hitting .207/.240/.543 with eight home runs over an even 100 plate appearances, displaying his usual recipe of power but not much in the way of average, OBP, or steady contact (Varsho has struck out in 31 of those 100 PA).

Beyond the numbers at the plate, Varsho has also displayed his customary stellar glovework in center field.  The Jays have another quality defender in Myles Straw who can fill in while Varsho is out, and as Matheson notes, the club will probably re-deploy the Straw/Nathan Lukes platoon used in center field during Varsho’s first IL stint.  George Springer, Alan Roden, or Jonatan Clase could also rotate into center field in a pinch, though Schneider said Springer had a minor ankle tweak in today’s game.

While it doesn’t appear as though Springer’s ankle issue is too serious, Toronto can hardly afford another outfield injury with Varsho and Anthony Santander already sidelined.  Given the thin outfield, Davis Schneider is likely to primarily be used in left field during his latest stint in the majors.  Second baseman Andres Gimenez is also expected back from his own IL stint in a few days’ time, and the resulting shuffle in the infield could see the hot-hitting Addison Barger moved into corner outfield duty.

Turning to the mound, Swanson ended up as the winning pitcher today, despite looking a little shaky (1 ER on a wild pitch, and a hit batter) in his lone inning of work.  A median nerve entrapment sidelined Swanson during Spring Training, and he ended up being moved to the 60-day IL in early May when some forearm soreness delayed the start of a planned minor league rehab assignment.

Overall, Swanson has been quite solid in his two-plus seasons in Toronto, as he was outstanding in 2023 and then recaptured that form in the second half of the 2024 campaign.  However, the first half of 2024 was marred by injuries, as well as some off-the-field trauma when Swanson’s four-year-old son was hospitalized after being hit by a car in February of that year.  (Fortunately, young Toby was released from hospital within two weeks.)

Blue Jays Designate Jose Urena For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that right-hander Jose Urena has been designated for assignment.  The move opens up a roster spot for southpaw Easton Lucas, who will likely cover some innings what is slated to be a bullpen day for the Jays in today’s matchup with the Athletics.

Urena signed a guaranteed contract with Toronto in early May, just a few days after he was designated for assignment by the Mets and then entered free agency (Urena was able to reject the Mets’ outright assignment in favor of free agency since he has been previously outrighted in his career).  Over his six games with the Jays, Urena made two starts and tossed a total of 12 1/3 innings while pitching to a 3.65 ERA.

With only a 9.6% strikeout rate in that brief stint with the Jays, Urena’s ERA significantly outperformed his peripherals, so the club is apparently willing to risk losing Urena in order to get a fresh arm onto the pitching staff.  Should Urena clear waivers, he’ll again have the option of either electing free agency or accepting an outright assignment to Triple-A.  Given the Blue Jays’ lack of rotation depth, a case can be made that sticking in the organization may give Urena another shot at the big leagues in relatively short order.

The fifth spot in the Jays’ rotation has been a revolving door since Max Scherzer went on the injured list after his first start of the season.  Lucas has received four starts, and Braydon Fisher (who has a spotless ERA over his first career 8 1/3 innings) will make his first Major League start today against the A’s.  Recent signing Eric Lauer has started two of his six games in a Blue Jays uniform, and the recently-signed Spencer Turnbull may yet factor into the rotation picture before Scherzer is ready to return.

Blue Jays Place Anthony Santander On Injured List

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The Blue Jays announced that outfielder Anthony Santander has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to left shoulder inflammation. Fellow outfielder Alan Roden has been recalled as the corresponding move.

The Jays signed Santander to a five-year, $92.5MM deal this offseason. Heavy deferrals reportedly knock the net present value closer to $70MM but it was still the club’s biggest offseason splash as they looked to bounce back from a disappointing 2024 season.

They haven’t received much from that investment so far. Santander has six home runs and has drawn walks at an 11.5% clip but has a 26.3% strikeout rate and a .179/.273/.304 batting line. That amounts to a 67 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% worse than the league average hitter at the plate.

Santander’s .218 batting average on balls in play is really low but he’s also hitting the ball with less authority than before. He barreled up 11.7% of pitches last year but that mark is down to 4.6% this year. His current 40.8% hard hit rate would be his lowest since 2020. It’s possible that he hasn’t been fully healthy for a while. He was out of the lineup on May 10th with manager John Schneider describing his shoulder as “a little cranky”, per Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. He also missed some time due to hip soreness this month.

Ideally, a bit of rest will get him healthy and back on track. Last year, he hit 44 homers for the Orioles while only striking out 19.4% of the time and drawing walks at an 8.7% clip. That led to a .235/.308/.506 line and 129 wRC+. The Jays were surely hoping to get something resembling that level of production but haven’t gotten it yet.

The club has George Springer and Daulton Varsho in two outfield spots, while Nathan Lukes, Jonatan Clase and Myles Straw are also in the mix. Roden now comes up and joins that group, who will be jockeying for playing time in one of the outfield corners as well as the designated hitter slot. Roden cracked the Opening Day roster and hit just .178/.262/.260 in his first 84 big league plate appearances. He was then optioned down to Buffalo, where he has been mashing, putting up a .361/.446/.583 line for the Bisons.

Photo courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Trade Josh Walker To Phillies

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The Phillies announced the acquisition of lefty reliever Josh Walker from the Blue Jays for cash considerations. Philadelphia has had a free 40-man roster spot since José Alvarado was suspended. They optioned Walker to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, so no additional move was necessary.

Toronto had designated Walker for assignment earlier in the week. An injury to backup catcher Tyler Heineman forced the Jays to select Ali Sánchez to pair with Alejandro Kirk. That required a 40-man roster move and squeezed Walker off the depth chart. The 6’6″ southpaw had been on optional assignment and pitching in Triple-A for most of this month.

Walker had a brief stay on Toronto’s MLB roster earlier in the year. He made three appearances and allowed four runs over five innings. He struck out eight against two walks while relying primarily on a mid-80s curveball. Walker backs up that breaking pitch with both a four-seam and two-seam fastball that typically land in the 93-94 MPH range.

A product of the University of New Haven, Walker entered the professional ranks as a 37th-round draft choice by the Mets in 2017. He overcame that lack of prospect pedigree to get to the majors in 2023. Walker hasn’t had much success against big league hitters, tallying a combined 6.59 earned run average through 27 1/3 frames. He has pitched well up through the Double-A level, though his Triple-A results are more mixed.

Walker carries a 4.45 ERA with an above-average 26.6% strikeout rate over parts of five seasons at the top minor league level. He has struggled there in the early going, giving up eight runs (seven earned) on 13 hits and seven walks through his first 10 innings this season. He has managed 16 strikeouts on only 51 batters faced, however, which is presumably a selling point for Philadelphia.

Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks are each pitching well in Rob Thomson’s bullpen. They were the only two lefty relievers on the 40-man roster. Walker is in his last option year and can bounce between Philadelphia and Lehigh Valley for the remainder of the season.

Blue Jays Notes: Garcia, Swanson, Burr, Sandlin, Gimenez, Manoah

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Yimi Garcia was placed on the Blue Jays’ 15-day injured list on Saturday, as the reliever is dealing with a right shoulder impingement.  Manager John Schneider provided some updates on several injured players to reporters (including Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling) today, including the news that Garcia received a cortisone shot in his ailing shoulder and will therefore be shut down from throwing for a few days while the shot takes effect.  A more definitive recovery timeline won’t be in place until Garcia starts throwing, Schneider said.

Garcia hasn’t allowed an earned run in 19 of his 21 appearances in 2025, as all of his damage allowed (seven ER) came over back-to-back disastrous outings against the Guardians and Angels on May 3 and 6, respectively.  He has a 3.15 ERA and an excellent 28.9% strikeout rate over 20 total innings this season, but his 12% walk rate is far beyond his career norms, and his 23.8% chase rate is well below the league average.

Even with those minor red flags, Garcia was Toronto’s top set-up option behind closer Jeff Hoffman, so losing Garcia for at least 15 days is another tough break for a Blue Jays bullpen that has been missing some key arms for all or most of the 2025 campaign.  Erik Swanson has yet to pitch at all this year, due to median nerve entrapment in his right arm that surfaced during Spring Training and then some forearm soreness that interrupted the start of his minor league rehab assignment.

Fortunately, Swanson now looks ready to go, as Schneider said the reliever will get a rehab outing with Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday.  Swanson was another pitcher ticketed for a set-up role this season, and he excelled in the position in 2023 and in the second half of the 2024 season, albeit only after an injury-marred first half.

The news isn’t as good for right-hander Ryan Burr, who went in for a check-up with team doctors following his Triple-A rehab appearance on Sunday.  Burr is another pitcher still waiting for his 2025 debut since he was dealing with shoulder inflammation in the spring, and Burr’s shoulder was still feeling some discomfort in the wake of Sunday’s outing.  More will be known soon if Burr’s soreness was anything serious, or if his rehab may be put on hold.

Nick Sandlin got his Blue Jays tenure off to a nice start when he posted a 2.25 ERA in his first eight innings with the team, before a right lat strain sent him to the 15-day IL back on April 20.  With now over a month spent on the sidelines, Sandlin is on the road to recovery, as he threw a bullpen session today at the Jays’ training complex in Florida.

Turning to position players, Andres Gimenez is also down in Florida, and Schneider said Gimenez is aiming to be part of a rehab game on Wednesday.  Acquired along with Sandlin in a big offseason trade with the Guardians, Gimenez drastically cooled off after a hot start, and was hitting only .195/.273/.305 over 143 plate appearances before a right quad strain sent him to the 10-day IL earlier this month.  Gimenez had been the Jays’ starting second baseman, and Ernie Clement has since moved to the keystone in Gimenez’s absence, bringing Addison Barger into the picture as the regular third baseman.

Alek Manoah also provided reporters with an update on his status during the Blue Jays’ recent visit to Tampa to play the Rays, as Manoah has been rehabbing from his Tommy John surgery at the Jays’ Dunedin complex.  Speaking with MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other media, Manoah is aiming to be back with the Jays in August, which would mark roughly a 14-month absence since he underwent his TJ procedure in June 2024.

As with any recovery from a UCL surgery, of course, this timeline is still pretty fluid.  Manoah is still in the bullpen session phase of his throwing progression (with twice-weekly bullpens of more than 40 pitches), so he has a ways to go before turning to his own minor league rehab work and fully building his arm up for a starter’s workload.

Once the burgeoning ace of Toronto’s rotation, Manoah’s career has been going sideways for the better part of three years.  Manoah followed up his excellent 2022 season with a miserable 2023 campaign that saw him lose his command of the strike zone and his spot on the Jays’ big league roster entirely.  He seemed to be somewhat back on track when he posted a 3.70 ERA over five starts and 24 1/3 innings in 2024 before the Tommy John procedure put Manoah on the IL.

It is anyone’s guess as to how Manoah may look once he makes his return to the active roster, yet even the 2024 version would be welcomed by a Jays team in need of rotation depth.  Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt remain the top three anchors of the pitching staff, but Bowden Francis has struggled, and Max Scherzer’s own injury problems have led to a revolving door of mostly ineffective options in the fifth starter’s role.

Blue Jays Select Ali Sanchez, Designate Josh Walker, Place Tyler Heineman On 7-Day IL

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The Blue Jays announced a trio of transactions this morning, including the placement of catcher Tyler Heineman on the seven-day concussion-related injured list.  Catcher Ali Sanchez’s contract was selected from Triple-A to take Heineman’s spot on the active roster, and left-hander Josh Walker was designated for assignment to open up space on the 40-man roster.

Heineman has been an unexpected force at the plate this season, hitting a whopping .396/.412/.542 over 51 plate appearances while acting as Alejandro Kirk’s backup.  That hot start to the season will now be put on hold for at least seven days, as Heineman will get some time to recover after a rough game on Thursday.  During Toronto’s 7-6 win over San Diego, Heineman was visibly shaken up after a pair of foul balls ricocheted off his mask, though he stayed behind the plate and caught 10 of the game’s 11 innings.

With Heineman sidelined, Sanchez will get his first MLB action of the 2025 season, and he’ll make his Blue Jays debut as the starting catcher in today’s game with the Rays.  Thirty-one of his Sanchez’s 38 career Major League games came with the Marlins last season, which marked the backstop’s first taste of the Show since the 2021 season.  His seven previous big league games came with the Mets and Cardinals in 2020-21, and Sanchez has also suited up at the minor league level in the farm systems of the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Cubs over his 12-year pro career.

Known more for his glovework than his bat, Sanchez has hit .264/.327/.363 over 2588 career PA in the minors, and he has a more solid .253/.324/.440 in 102 PA with Triple-A Buffalo this season.  Sanchez is out of minor league options, so once Heineman is healthy, the Jays will have to designate Sanchez for assignment and have him clear waivers in order to send him back to Buffalo.  The catcher would have the ability to turn down an outright assignment and elect free agency, since Sanchez has been previously outrighted in his career.

Walker was another offseason signing for Toronto, inked to a split contract for an MLB minimum salary prorated over his time on the Blue Jays’ active roster.  His time on the 26-man lasted only a couple of weeks, as Walker had a 7.20 ERA in five innings over three appearances in late April and early May.  That brief amount of work at least made it three straight seasons of Major League work for Walker, who made 24 appearances (22 1/3 innings) with the Mets in 2023-24.

Walker’s 24.2% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate during his short amount of time in the majors hint at the overall story of his career, as the southpaw has a 26.83K% and 9.03BB% over his 276 1/3 career innings in the minors.  Both his strikeout and walk numbers have both been rising as Walker has pitched at Triple-A over the last few seasons, with that lack of control undermining his potential at missing bats.  The Jays apparently didn’t see enough to keep Walker on the roster, though another club might well be intrigued enough to put in a waiver claim for some left-handed bullpen depth.

Bo Bichette’s Earning Power Spectrum

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Last month, MLB Trade Rumors published an early Power Rankings looking ahead to the upcoming free agent class. Kyle Tucker was an obvious choice for the top spot and Dylan Cease ended up pretty comfortably in second. The next few entrants were tougher to separate, but Bo Bichette ended up third.

Bichette’s free agency was and is tough to peg. He has a strong track record of success, but his 2024 season was awful. His bat has been strong on the whole, though with a swing-happy profile that lacks walks. His defense has been passable enough to stick at short, but he’s not great there.

Of the potential top free agents this coming winter, he seemingly has some of the widest error bars. This post will take a look at the spectrum, using MLBTR’s Contract Tracker as a guide.

As you can see in that screenshot (link for app users), I’ve used the dropdown bars to search for free agent deals for shortstops over the past five years. I’ve then ranked them by the total guarantee on the contract. There are some pretty clear tiers in earning power, so let’s see where Bichette could fit in.

From 2019 through 2023, his production was quite consistent. He splashed onto the scene with a 143 wRC+ in 46 games in his debut season but then his wRC+ finished in the 120 to 130 range in each of the next four seasons. His home run total in the three full seasons from 2021 to 2023 fell between 20 and 29. His walk rate was on the low side in each of those campaigns, falling between 4.5% and 5.9%, but he also struck out less than average and ran batting averages near .300.

The defensive reviews have been mixed. Defensive Runs Saved has him at -11 for his whole career, though a big chunk of that is a -16 in 2022 alone, which looks like a clear outlier. Apart from that, he’s generally been near average, give or take a few runs on either side. Outs Above Average, however, doesn’t like his glovework at all. Bichette has -22 OAA for his career and has been below average in almost every season. The only campaigns in which he’s finished with a positive OAA were the shortened 2020 season and his injury-marred 2024 campaign.

Still, the bat was enough to produce plenty of value. FanGraphs had him between 3.9 and 4.9 wins above replacement in each season from 2021 to 2023. Baseball Reference pegged him between 3.7 and 5.9.

Things went off the rails last year. Bichette seemingly battled leg injuries all year, twice going on the IL due to right calf strains. He got into just 81 games, hit only four home runs and produced an ugly .225/.277/.322 batting line, 71 wRC+.

Turning to 2025, Bichette seems to have bounced back to his old self. Through 211 plate appearances, he has a .292/.341/.431 and 121 wRC+. That’s despite a slow start. Through the end of April, he still hadn’t hit a home run, leading to a decent but powerless .295/.328/.364 line and 97 wRC+. Since the calendar has flipped to May, he has finally gone over the fence four times, helping him hit .288/.365/.561 for a wRC+ of 163 this month.

Turning to the Contract Tracker list, at the top is a level that Bichette shouldn’t be able to get to, with Corey Seager at $325MM followed by Trea Turner at $300MM. Seager got his deal going into his age-28 season, the same age Bichette will be next year. However, Seager was simply better. His power output was fairly close to Bichette’s but with far more walks, leading to a 142 wRC+. His defense was also graded higher.

Seager had 19.8 fWAR at the time he signed with the Rangers. Bichette could actually go past that since he’s at 17.2 fWAR right now, but that’s mostly due to Seager’s injuries (most notably, Tommy John surgery). Seager produced that WAR total in just 514 regular season games as a Dodger, whereas Bichette already has 655 games under his belt. There was some injury risk with Seager but he was far better on a rate basis and that’s what the Rangers paid for.

Turner was a bit older, going into his age-30 season, but his combination of offense, defense and speed gave him a massive ceiling Bichette can’t match. In his final two seasons before free agency, he produced 7.1 and 6.4 fWAR. As mentioned, Bichette has topped out at 4.9.

The next two names on the list are a bit unusual. Xander Bogaerts getting $280MM registered as a huge surprise at the time and the deal hasn’t worked out for the Padres so far. In the industry, that one is chalked up to the Friars going a bit wild. Owner Peter Seidler was in poor health and was allowing the front office to spend like never before, seemingly throwing caution to the wind with the knowledge that he didn’t have much time left.

Carlos Correa’s deal is also an unusual data point. His earning power was initially far higher. He had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants before they got scared by his physical and walked away. The Mets agreed to a 12-year $315MM deal with Correa before they, too, balked at his medicals. The $200MM deal with the Twins was therefore the product of a fairly unprecedented situation. The unique quartet of vesting options in the deal reflect the odd circumstances and could add millions more to Correa’s bank account.

There’s a case for Bichette to be in the next tier. I’ll circle back to Marcus Semien in a second and focus first on Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. Each signed his contract going into his age-29 season and earned between $23.3MM and $26MM annually. Adames and Swanson got a seventh year, pushing their total guarantees to $182MM and $177MM respectively. Báez and Story were each capped at six years and $140MM total.

Bichette will be one year younger than everyone in that group, theoretically giving him a bit more earning power. The question will be whether he’s ranked as highly apart from that. Adames is a better defender, with 11 OAA and -3 DRS in his career. That latter figure is a bit odd, as he was clearly in positive range before posting -16 DRS 2024 and -7 so far as a Giant.

Offensively, he had often been similar to Bichette. He had a 126 wRC+ in 2020 and a 120 in 2021, with 25 home runs in the latter season. His power remained in 2022 and 2023 but low batting averages dropped his wRC+ to 109 and 94 in those seasons. He bounced back in 2024 with 32 home runs and a 119 wRC+. His fWAR totals have generally been in the Bichette range of three to five per season.

Swanson was always a glove-first shortstop with questions about the bat. Through 2021, he still had a career 88 wRC+. But in 2022, his walk year, he hit 25 home runs and produced a 117 wRC+. Thanks to his excellent defense and 18 stolen bases, he was able to produce a 6.6 fWAR season. That was a tier above anything Bichette has done, but he had only done it once. Still, it was enough for the Cubs to buy in.

Báez and Story were more erratic. Báez was a subpar hitter in his first few seasons but provided enough on defense and the basepaths to be useful. His offense improved as he neared free agency but wasn’t consistent. His wRC+ spiked to 131 in 2018 and dropped to 112 the year after. The shortened 2020 season was a disaster, with a wRC+ of 57, before he bounced back to 117 in 2021. At his heights, he was almost a six-win player, getting to 5.8 and 5.6 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. Those were higher than any Bichette season, but he was also well below at times.

Somewhat similarly, Story hit a higher peak than Bichette by producing 6.0 fWAR in 2019. He hit 35 home runs, though playing in Denver during the juiced ball season surely helped him a bit in that regard. Still, the 122 wRC+, 23 steals and strong defense led to a six-win season. He also had 2.0 fWAR in the shortened 2020 campaign with similar production. But in his walk year, 2021, his wRC+ dropped to 98 and he only produced 2.2 fWAR. That tepid platform season and some concerns about his elbow health knocked him down a bit.

Here is the fWAR total for each in the six seasons leading to free agency, including the shortened 2020 season for all in the name of fairness:

Baez: 21.9 in 782 games
Story: 20.3 in 745 games
Adames: 20.1 in 795 games
Bichette: 15.8 in 609 games
Swanson: 15.1 in 789 games

Bichette is right in the thick there. As mentioned, Swanson bloomed in his walk year, so it makes sense he would be at the bottom of this six-year list. If Bichette has a typical year for him, he could add another three or four wins and get fairly close to the other shorstops on the list. Factor in some inflation and that he’s a year younger than everyone in that pack and he has a case to earn something around $200MM.

What will also work in his favor is that he’ll be the clear top shortstop this winter, as Adames was in the most recent offseason. Alongside Bichette, the only other potential everyday shortstop this winter would be Ha-Seong Kim. He is still recovering from last year’s shoulder surgery and needs to both recover and play well enough to opt out of the second season of his two-year deal with the Rays. Even in a best-case scenario where that all happens, his earning power would be below a healthy and productive Bichette.

This is all still somewhat hypothetical. As mentioned, Bichette seems to be getting back to his 2021-23 pace this year, but in a fairly small sample. There’s still lots of time for the season to turn on him. If he ends up having more 2024-style struggles, he could certainly fall. Let’s turn to the Contract Tracker again.

These are the top deals for second basemen by average annual value in the past five years (link for app users). This perhaps paints a picture of Bichette’s floor. Given his questionable defense, it’s possible that clubs may view him as someone who’s likely to move to second base fairly soon. And the earning power of second basemen is clearly lesser than that of shortstops. Semien did get $175MM from the Rangers, though that’s an outlier. At the time, the Rangers were five years into a deep rebuild and were eager to speed up the process with aggressive spending.

Gleyber Torres is an interesting comp for Bichette, as there are some parallels. Torres was once a highly-touted shortstop prospect, but with a better bat than glove. Unlike Bichette, he couldn’t stick at short. The Yankees moved him to second base for good in 2022, his age-25 season.

His offensive production has been somewhat comparable to Bichette’s on the whole. He went into free agency with a .265/.334/.441 line and 113 wRC+, a bit below Bichette’s typical range. He also had a tepid platform year, slashing .257/.330/.378 for a 104 wRC+ in 2024. He settled for a one-year, $15MM “prove it” deal with the Tigers.

It currently seems unlikely that Bichette would fall quite that far. His career wRC+ of 120 is a few ticks above what Torres brought to the open market last fall. Bichette also has a leg up defensively, as he will be going into free agency as a viable shortstop, at least for the short term.

But a soft finish in 2025 could hamper Bichette. In that scenario, he’d be going into free agency on the heels of two fairly disappointing seasons in a row. That was the situation Cody Bellinger was in going into 2023. After two injury-marred seasons with the Dodgers, he was non-tendered and settled for a one-year, $17.5MM pact with the Cubs for his age-27 season. He bounced back that year and went into the open market ahead of his age-28 campaign.

But there were enough question marks from his inconsistency, health and defense that he settled for a three-year, $80MM deal to return to the Cubs, well below initial expectations. He earned opt-out chances after each season in that deal but declined the first chance after a good-not-great 2024 season.

Time will tell where Bichette ultimately puts himself on this earning spectrum, but it appears to be quite wide. Anything from $20MM to $200MM seems somewhat plausible, depending on his performance over the four-plus months, which will make him a fascinating player to track.

A qualifying offer would be something of a footnote when talking about a $200MM deal but would certainly become noteworthy if Bichette finds himself on the other end. The QO was $21.05MM in the most recent offseason and will surely go up for the coming winter, after a number of recent mega deals. The QO is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 top-paid players. Each of Juan Soto, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Corbin Burnes earned AAVs of $35MM or higher recently. Though there are some deferrals in those deals, the QO value is sure to rise.

Bichette would only be eligible to receive a QO if he sticks with the Jays until the end of the season. Players traded midseason are not eligible to receive one. If the Jays fall out of the race and trade Bichette at the deadline, the QO won’t be a factor for him — yet another detail that could sway a volatile free agent case with many factors at play.

Photo of Bichette courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

Poll: American League Playoff Outlook

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We’re now a little over a quarter of the way through the 2025 regular season. With Memorial Day fast approaching, it’s hard for struggling teams to continue arguing that it’s still early. That isn’t to say playoff positions are set in stone, of course; on this day last year, the Mariners and Twins were firmly in playoff position while the eventual AL West champion Astros were in fourth place in the division and seven games under .500.

If the season ended today, the Tigers, Yankees, Mariners, Guardians, Royals, and Twins would be your playoff teams in the American League this year. With four-and-a-half months left in the baseball calendar, which team currently outside of that group has the best chance of breaking their way into the mix?

Here’s a look at a few of the options, listed in order of record entering play today:

Houston Astros (22-20)

Houston’s first season in a post-Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman world has been an uneven one. Jose Altuve does not look like the difference-maker he once was in his age-35 season. He’s hitting .256/.302/.369 (90 wRC+) and has effectively played at replacement level. His batted-ball profile suggests he may even be a bit fortunate to have the modest rate stats he currently possesses. Yordan Alvarez is injured, Yainer Diaz is well-below average at the plate, and neither Christian Walker nor Cam Smith is producing the way Houston hoped.

On the positive side, Isaac Paredes (141 wRC+) and Jeremy Pena (139 wRC+) have both been excellent at the plate. Hunter Brown is looking like an early Cy Young candidate, and the late-inning duo of Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu is one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. If Alvarez can get healthy and the team can find some outfield help this summer, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Houston make its tenth consecutive postseason.

Texas Rangers (23-21)

Entering the season, the Rangers looked like they had an excellent offense that would be held down by questions about the pitching staff. The reality they’ve faced this year is the opposite: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Jake Burger, and Joc Pederson have all been somewhere between disappointing and terrible. Corey Seager has been injured, and Evan Carter started the year in the minors. Josh Jung, Josh Smith, and Wyatt Langford have been the only standout performers in the lineup so far this year.

That’s been offset by phenomenal performances in the rotation despite injuries to Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Kumar Rocker. Jacob deGrom is back and striking out a third of batters like it’s 2019, but he’s arguably the #3 starter in a rotation where Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle have sub-2.00 ERAs. Even emergency addition Patrick Corbin is turning back the clock with a 3.35 ERA across seven starts. If the Rangers’ vaunted offense can wake up a bit, it’s easy to imagine the 2023 World Series champs making a run.

The Athletics (22-21)

John Fisher’s aggressive offseason after abandoning Oakland for West Sacramento is paying off in the standings, though it’s mostly been due to young players breaking out. Jacob Wilson is looking like a unicorn in the mold of Luis Arraez. Tyler Soderstrom has emerged as a breakout slugger. Shea Langeliers is in the midst of a career year at the dish.

The pitching is cause for concern, but Gunnar Hoglund has looked good in his first taste of big league action, while both Luis Severino and Mason Miller have peripherals that suggest their results should improve with time. Three of last year’s most productive players — Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, and Brent Rooker — have taken steps backward, however. That will limit the club’s potential if they can’t get back on track.

Toronto Blue Jays (22-22)

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now in the fold for life, now all the Blue Jays have to do is win with him. The returns on that front are mixed. Veterans like George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt are doing their best to make everyone forget about their age, but the performances of longer-term pieces like Anthony Santander, Bowden Francis and Jose Berrios are deeply concerning. Jeff Hoffman has been among baseball’s best closers so far and Bo Bichette is an above-average hitter again, but Alejandro Kirk has been pedestrian at the plate and Guerrero’s 131 wRC+, while terrific relative to the rest of the league, represents a major step back from last year’s 165. A healthy and effective return from future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer would go a long way to stabilizing the rotation, but players like Santander and Berrios will need to get going if playoff baseball is to return to Canada this year.

Boston Red Sox (22-23)

After pushing in by adding Garrett Crochet and Bregman this winter, the Red Sox entered the year looking like one of the AL’s best teams. While they haven’t exactly been bad, the season certainly hasn’t worked out that way so far. Crochet and Bregman are both as-advertised or better, and Wilyer Abreu is looking like a bona fide lefty slugger to pair with Rafael Devers.

Kristian Campbell has begun to cool off after a torrid start, however, and the rotation injuries have begun to pile up. It’s anyone’s guess who will be playing first base on any given day. Triston Casas is out for the year. Romy Gonzalez is on the injured list. Devers doesn’t sound keen on another position change. Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are knocking on the door in the minors, and perhaps their eventual debuts will be the spark this team needs to get back into the playoff mix.

The Rest Of The Field

The five teams mentioned above are all within two games of a Wild Card spot, but the rest of the AL can’t be counted out. The Rays will benefit from the eventual returns of players like Ha-Seong Kim and Shane McClanahan, but they need more offense from key pieces like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Junior Caminero. The Orioles should have the lineup to compete, but they have some key bats struggling and will need to figure out their disastrous pitching staff to get back into the race. The Angels have faded after a hot start, but players like Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward should start hitting eventually. The White Sox still have an abysmal offense, but the rotation has been surprisingly solid with Rule 5 pick Shane Smith in particular looking like a steal.

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Jake Bloss To Undergo UCL Surgery

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Blue Jays pitching prospect Jake Bloss will undergo UCL surgery. The club announced the news to reporters, including Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. He’ll be out for the rest of this year and part of 2026 as well.

Though Bloss’ experience in the majors thus far is quite limited, his loss is nonetheless a notable blow to Toronto’s depth. The 23-year-old was one of three players — arguably the top player — the Jays received in last summer’s trade sending Yusei Kikuchi to Houston. Bloss, a 2023 third-rounder, made his MLB debut with the ’Stros last year and was roughed up for nine runs on 16 hits and three walks in 11 2/3 frames. That said, he turned in a terrific 3.18 ERA with a solid 23.3% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate in 93 1/3 innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A last year.

With that showing in the upper minors and a taste of big league action already under his belt, Bloss felt on the cusp of breaking through with a real MLB opportunity. The Jays opened the season with Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Bowden Francis in the rotation, leaving him without a real spot, but Bloss stood as one of the top depth options in the event of injury.

Had Bloss performed well, he might well have been the very first man up. However, the right-hander was tagged for eight runs in eight spring innings and hasn’t looked right since the calendar flipped to the regular season. Bloss served up eight runs (albeit only three of them earned) in four innings during this year’s Triple-A debut. He followed that with another 10 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings across his next two starts. Fast forward three more starts — the most recent featuring another four earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings — and Bloss is more than halfway to last year’s total of 33 earned runs despite having pitched only about one quarter as many innings.

Today’s announcement lends a likely explanation for the struggles Bloss has endured so far. He now becomes the latest Jays prospect of note to undergo a notable surgery, joining Ricky Tiedemann (Tommy John surgery last year), T.J. Brock (Tommy John surgery in January) and Adam Macko (meniscus surgery in February) in that regard. Toronto is also still waiting on Alek Manoah’s return from last year’s UCL procedure.

Bloss won’t turn 24 until June. He’s in the second of three minor league option years. There’s plenty of time for him to return as a meaningful contributor to the Jays over the long haul. In the short term, however, his struggles and the injury that ostensibly caused them further thin out a depth chart that’s already dotted with notable injuries.

The Blue Jays recently signed Spencer Turnbull and Jose Ureña to major league deals. Ureña has already made a pair of starts. Turnbull will need to build up. Toronto also picked up Connor Overton on a minor league deal and could search for further depth along those lines. They’ve also given lefty Easton Lucas a quartet of starts, two of which were terrific and two of which were disastrous, with the end result being a 7.41 ERA.

Since Bloss was on optional assignment, he isn’t currently accruing major league pay or service time. The Jays could potentially call him up and place him on the major league 60-day injured list. Doing so would allow them to open a 40-man roster spot but would also mean Bloss starts to earn that big league pay and service. Bloss came into this year with 39 days of service time, putting him 133 short of the one-year mark. There are still 138 days left in the season. Even if the Jays want to open a 40-man spot by calling up Bloss, they probably won’t do so in the next week.

Blue Jays Outright Dillon Tate

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The Blue Jays announced this afternoon that reliever Dillon Tate accepted an outright to Triple-A Buffalo. He cleared waivers after being designated for assignment on Friday.

Tate, 31, first landed in Toronto last September. The Jays claimed him off waivers from the division-rival Orioles, with whom the former fourth overall pick had pitched parts of five MLB campaigns. Toronto dropped him over the offseason in lieu of a projected $1.9MM arbitration salary. They re-signed him midway through Spring Training on a split deal that pays at a $1.4MM rate in the big leagues and $500K for whatever time he spends in the minors.

The Jays have mostly kept him in Triple-A early this year. He opened the season on optional assignment to Buffalo. The Jays recalled him in mid-April and kept him on the active roster for around two and a half weeks. He made five appearances, allowing three runs on seven hits and six walks over 5 1/3 frames. He fanned seven hitters but got whiffs on only 6.8% of his total pitches. The results have been much better over his six innings with the Bisons: one run on six hits and a walk with seven strikeouts and a huge 18.2% swinging strike rate.

Tate has spent most of his career working in middle relief. His best season came in 2022, when he provided the O’s with 73 2/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball behind a 57.4% ground-ball percentage. A flexor strain wound up costing him the entire following year. Tate avoided surgery but was unable to progress through multiple attempts at a rehab assignment.

He wasn’t as effective when he returned last season, allowing 4.66 earned runs per nine across 36 2/3 frames. His stuff hasn’t been as sharp since the injury. Tate’s sinker averaged 94 MPH during the ’22 season. It was down to 92.6 last year and is checking in below 92 MPH on average through this season’s first six weeks.

Tate entered this season with four years and 144 days of major league service. He has collected another 17 days on Toronto’s roster this season. Players reach a full service year at 172 days, meaning Tate will tip beyond the five-year threshold with 11 more days in the big leagues. At that point, he’d be able to refuse any optional assignments and retain his salary if he declines an outright and elects free agency after clearing waivers. Until then, he’d need to forfeit his salary to test free agency, so it’s no surprise that he decided to accept the assignment back to Buffalo.

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