Shane Bieber To Begin Season On Injured List; Bowden Francis To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
The defending American League champions provided a handful of discouraging injury updates at the first day of Spring Training. In addition to revealing that Anthony Santander will miss the majority of the season rehabbing shoulder surgery, they announced a couple bits of news on the pitching side.
Shane Bieber will begin the season on the 15-day injured list, manager John Schneider told reporters (links via Mitch Bannon of The Athletic and Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). The Jays are slow-playing his buildup after he dealt with forearm fatigue in the playoffs and over the offseason. There’s worse news for depth starter Bowden Francis, as Schneider said he’s headed for Tommy John surgery.
Schneider framed the Bieber situation mostly as an abundance of caution. It was reported around the Winter Meetings that the righty had dealt with late-season forearm fatigue. That explained what had seemed a very curious decision to exercise a $16MM player option rather than pursuing a multi-year contract.
Bieber missed most of the 2023-24 seasons rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He felt a bit of elbow soreness last summer but was otherwise healthy enough to pitch the stretch run and throughout the playoffs. Bieber combined for 59 innings between the regular season and postseason. The Jays declined to provide any kind of timetable for his season debut, though both Schneider and GM Ross Atkins suggested they expect him to get plenty of work this season. Bieber has been throwing off flat ground up to 90 feet.
That answers any questions about whether the Jays had “too much” starting pitching to begin the season. José Berríos was reportedly displeased with being pushed out of the projected playoff rotation last year. He might have been sixth on the depth chart at full strength, but he’s now locked into the Opening Day rotation (assuming he gets through camp healthy himself). The Jays have a projected starting five of Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Cody Ponce and Berríos.
Losing Francis subtracts one of their depth arms. The 29-year-old righty took the ball 14 times last year, though he struggled to a 6.05 ERA before going down with a shoulder impingement in the middle of June. He spent the second half of the season on the 60-day injured list. He’ll land back on the IL whenever the Jays need to open a 40-man roster spot and spend the rest of the year there. Francis will be paid around the MLB minimum rate but seems likely to lose his roster spot at the end of the season when teams need to reinstate players from the IL.
Toronto is also without righty Jake Bloss, who is working back from his own elbow procedure (performed last May). Lefty Eric Lauer projects for a long relief role if everyone’s healthy but would be the obvious choice to step into the rotation if anyone else goes down before Opening Day. The other pitchers on the 40-man roster are light on big league experience, meaning one more injury could leave them looking quite thin.
There are a handful of mid-rotation caliber starters still unsigned — old friends Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer among the group. The Jays have pushed their luxury tax payroll estimate north of $310MM, easily a franchise record. They kicked the tires on Framber Valdez as he lingered on the open market into February, so it seems there’s still a chance of another move if they want to add some stability to the back end.
Anthony Santander To Undergo Shoulder Surgery, Out 5-6 Months
Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Santander is scheduled for left labral surgery on Wednesday, according to multiple reports. He’s set to miss the next five to six months of action. Santander had a setback in January as he prepared for the upcoming campaign. Toronto hopes to get him back before the end of the season.
Left shoulder inflammation cost Santander two months during his first year with the Blue Jays. A back injury bumped him off the ALCS roster and ended his season. After signing a five-year, $92.5MM deal, Santander suited up in just 59 games for Toronto, including the playoffs.
Santander struggled mightily at the plate when available. He slashed .175/.271/.294 with six home runs across 221 plate appearances. The switch-hitter was coming off a career campaign with the Orioles, slugging 44 home runs and taking home Silver Slugger honors. He remained on the free agent market deep into January before ultimately securing a five-year commitment from the Blue Jays.
The 31-year-old Santander split his time between outfield and DH last season. He made 22 appearances on the grass and 30 at designated hitter. Toronto also threw him out there for an inning at first base. Santander has graded out as an average to subpar defender in recent years. Outs Above Average had him at -2 in 2025, while Defensive Runs Saved gave him a neutral grade.
General manager Ross Atkins told reporters the club is “not significantly” involved in the market for an outfielder following the Santander injury. As the roster currently stands, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes are penciled in at the corner outfield spots against right-handed pitching. Davis Schneider will be a factor against lefties, with Myles Straw serving as a late-inning defensive replacement. George Springer is set to hold down DH duties.
Mitch Bannon of The Athletic was among those to report Santander’s injury and timeline. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported Atkins’ comments about an outfield addition.
Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images
Blue Jays, Josh Fleming Agree To Minor League Deal
The Blue Jays reached agreement with left-hander Josh Fleming on a minor league contract, reports Alden González of ESPN. The Republik Sports client receives a non-roster invite to Spring Training.
Fleming spent last season in Triple-A with the Mariners. The 29-year-old southpaw worked mostly out of the bullpen and struggled to a 4.91 ERA across 84 1/3 innings. He got ground-balls at a 57.8% clip but had an 11.5% strikeout rate, the second-lowest mark among Triple-A pitchers with at least 50 innings. He’s a sinkerballer who barely scrapes 90 MPH while mixing in a cutter, changeup and curveball.
A former fifth-round pick by the Rays, Fleming has spent the majority of his career in the AL East. He pitched for Tampa Bay between 2020-23 and logged the ’24 campaign with the Pirates. He carries a 4.77 ERA across 254 2/3 major league innings. As was the case in Triple-A, he has thrown strikes and gotten a ton of grounders while barely missing any bats at the big league level. He’ll likely begin the season at Triple-A Buffalo as long relief depth.
Blue Jays Have Continued Interest In Framber Valdez
The Blue Jays remain interested in top free agent starter Framber Valdez, report Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Toronto reportedly met with Valdez at the GM Meetings back in early November. That predated their seven-year, $210MM contract with Dylan Cease, so it was hardly a given that the Jays were still involved.
Valdez is arguably the last impact player available on the open market. He’s certainly the highest-upside player remaining. There’s a decent supply of unsigned starting pitching, but most other players fit in the middle or back of the rotation. That includes Zac Gallen, the only other free agent who rejected a qualifying offer. Valdez is at least a high-end #2 starter and has ace potential.
The southpaw finished top 10 in Cy Young voting each season from 2022-24. He looked on that pace through the All-Star Break last year, turning in a 2.75 earned run average over 19 starts. Things went off the rails in the second half, as Valdez surrendered a 5.20 ERA over his final 12 starts. He also had the much publicized cross-up incident with third catcher César Salazar, as he came under fire for not showing much immediate concern after hitting Salazar in the chest with a fastball. Astros officials maintained they did not believe Valdez intentionally crossed the catcher up, and Salazar did his best to downplay the situation publicly.
In any case, Valdez hit the market coming off arguably his worst two-month stretch in years. He’s entering his age-32 season, an age at which five-plus year deals for free agent starting pitchers are rare. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only pitchers at 32 or older to sign for five years within the past decade. It’s not clear what Valdez sought at the beginning of the offseason, but it’s generally not a great omen for players’ markets if they’re unsigned into February. A short-term deal with opt-outs probably isn’t as appealing for Valdez as it would be for a younger free agent.
The Jays already run six deep in the rotation with Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Cody Ponce and José Berríos. They’re broadly involved on every top free agent, so it’s possible they’re circling back to see if Valdez’s market has dropped to a level at which they feel the value is too good to ignore. Bieber has battled some elbow fatigue. Yesavage had some injury questions in college and just completed his first full professional season. Ponce is something of an unknown coming back from Korea, though the Jays wouldn’t have guaranteed him $30MM if they didn’t think he could be an effective starter.
Toronto could certainly justify taking this group into the season, but they’re evidently still kicking around rotation possibilities. Heyman said on an MLB Network appearance this afternoon that the Jays have some amount of interest in bringing Max Scherzer back. That’d obviously be a much cheaper move than even a short-term deal for Valdez, but Scherzer isn’t as clear of an upgrade over Toronto’s back-end arms.
RosterResource calculates the Jays’ luxury tax payroll around $310MM. That’s already a franchise record and lands them in the top tier of penalization. The Jays are near the Yankees and Phillies to round out a clear top five in projected spending behind the Dodgers and Mets. Signing Valdez would probably push them close to $340MM in CBT commitments, which would take them ahead of the Yankees and Philadelphia. They’d pay a 90% tax on the average annual value of any further free agent contracts. A hypothetical $30MM salary for Valdez would add another $27MM to their tax bill and amount to a $57MM investment overall.
Valdez comes attached to draft compensation, though that penalty isn’t as severe for the Jays because they already signed Cease. Toronto punted their second-round pick and their compensatory pick for Bo Bichette (after the fourth round) to add Cease. They’d give up their third and fifth rounders for Valdez, but those are each outside the top 100 overall.
Houston paid the luxury tax last year, so they’ll only receive a compensation pick after round four once Valdez signs elsewhere. That’s all but inevitable, as they’ve never seemed interested in meeting the southpaw’s asking price on a free agent deal. The collective bargaining agreement prohibits team personnel from explicitly saying they’re not pursuing specific players, but Houston GM Dana Brown reiterated this afternoon that the Astros “haven’t had any conversations lately” with the pitcher’s camp (video via Jason Bristol of KHOU 11 News).
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Most clubs have a slightly earlier report date this year due to the World Baseball Classic. Last year, the Cubs and Dodgers had earlier report dates because they were had an earlier Opening Day than everyone else as part of the Tokyo Series. Gavin Stone was the first player to land on the 60-day IL in 2025, landing there on February 11th. According to MLB.com, every club has a report date from February 10th to 13th this year.
It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until late May or beyond. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Justin Verlander, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito, and more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment. If a team wants to pass a player through waivers, perhaps they will try to do so in the near future before the extra roster flexibility opens up.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time or who have uncertain recovery timelines from 2025 injuries.
Angels: Anthony Rendon, Ben Joyce
Rendon’s situation is unique. He underwent hip surgery a year ago and missed the entire 2025 season. He is still on the roster and signed through 2026. He and the club have agreed to a salary-deferment plan and he is not expected to be in spring training with the club. His recovery timeline is unclear, but general manager Perry Minasian said earlier this month that Rendon would be “rehabbing at home,” per Alden González of ESPN. If they were going to release him, they likely would have done so by now, so he seems destined for the injured list.
Joyce underwent shoulder surgery in May and missed the remainder of the 2025 season. His current status is unclear. In August, he told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that he didn’t know if he would be ready for spring training. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the Halos don’t expect him back before the end of May.
Astros: Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery in 2025. Wesneski was first, with his surgery taking place on May 23rd. Blanco followed shortly thereafter in early June. They will likely be targeting returns in the second half. Walter’s procedure was in September, meaning he will likely miss the entire season. All three should be on the 60-day IL as soon as Houston needs roster spots for other transactions.
Athletics: Zack Gelof
Gelof underwent surgery to repair a dislocated shoulder in September, with the expectation of him potentially being healthy for spring training. At the end of December, general manager David Forst told Martín Gallegos of MLB.com that Gelof would be “a little bit behind” in spring. He would only land on the 60-day IL if the A’s think he’ll be out through late May.
Blue Jays: Jake Bloss
Bloss underwent surgery on the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow in May. He was on optional assignment at the time and stayed in the minors for the rest of the season. Going into 2026, the Jays could keep him in the minors but they could also call him up and place him on the major league IL. Doing so would open up a roster spot but would also mean giving Bloss big league pay and service time.
Braves: Ha-Seong Kim, AJ Smith-Shawver, Danny Young, Joe Jiménez
Kim recently fell on some ice and injured his hand. He underwent surgery last week, and the expected recovery time is four to five months. The shorter end of that window only goes to mid-May, so perhaps Atlanta will hold off on making a decision until they watch his recovery, especially since they have other guys with clearer injury timelines.
Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery in June, so he shouldn’t be back until the second half and is therefore a lock for the 60-day IL once Atlanta needs a spot. Young underwent the same procedure in May, so he should also be bound for the IL.
Jimenez is more of a question mark. He missed the 2025 season due to left knee surgery. He required a “cleanup” procedure on that knee towards the end of the season. His timeline isn’t currently clear.
Brewers: None.
Cardinals: None.
Cubs: Justin Steele
Steele will probably be a bit of a borderline case. He underwent UCL surgery in April but it wasn’t a full Tommy John surgery. The Cubs described it as a “revision repair”. Steele had undergone Tommy John in 2017 as a minor leaguer.
Since Steele’s more recent procedure was a bit less serious than a full Tommy John, the club gave an estimated return timeline of about one year, putting him in line to potentially return fairly early in 2026. Given his importance to the Cubs, they would only put him on the 60-day IL if his timeline changes and he’s certain to be out through late May.
Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., A.J. Puk, Justin Martínez, Blake Walston, Tyler Locklear
The Snakes were hit hard by the injury bug in 2025. Burnes, Walston and Martínez all underwent Tommy John surgery. Burnes and Martínez had their procedures in June, so they should be targeting second-half returns and be easy calls for the 60-day IL. Walston would be a bit more borderline because his surgery was around Opening Day in late March last year. Puk had the slightly less significant internal brace procedure in June, so he could also be a borderline case.
Turning to the position players, Gurriel tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in September. He required surgery which came with a return timeline of nine to ten months, so he should be out until around the All-Star break.
Locklear should be back sooner. He underwent surgery in October to address a ligament tear in his elbow and a labrum injury in his shoulder. The hope at the time of that procedure was that he would be game ready to go on a rehab assignment around Opening Day and would therefore miss only about the first month. He would therefore only hit the 60-day IL if he doesn’t meet that timeline for some reason.
Dodgers: Brock Stewart
Stewart underwent shoulder debridement surgery in September. His timeline for 2026 isn’t especially clear. He will likely start the season on the IL but it’s unclear if he’ll be out long enough to warrant landing on the 60-day version.
Giants: Randy Rodríguez, Jason Foley
Rodríguez underwent Tommy John surgery in September, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL and might even miss the entire 2026 campaign. Foley’s status is a bit more murky. He underwent shoulder surgery in May while with the Tigers. Detroit non-tendered him at season’s end, which allowed the Giants to sign him. He is expected back at some point mid-season. The Giants may want to get more clarity on his progress during camp before deciding on a move to the IL.
Guardians: Andrew Walters, David Fry
Neither of these guys is a lock for the 60-day IL. Walters had surgery to repair his right lat tendon in June with a recovery estimate of eight to ten months. Fry underwent surgery in October due to a deviated septum and a fractured nose suffered when a Tarik Skubal pitch hit him in the face. His timeline is unclear. It’s possible one or both could be healthy by Opening Day, so relevant updates may be forthcoming when camps open.
Mariners: Logan Evans
Evans required UCL surgery just last week and will miss the entire 2026 season. He was on optional assignment at the end of 2025, so the Mariners could keep him in the minors. Calling him up and putting him on the big league 60-day IL would open up a 40-man spot but would also involve Evans receiving big league pay and service time for the year.
Marlins: Ronny Henriquez
Henriquez underwent internal brace surgery in December and will miss the entire 2026 season, so he’s a lock for the 60-day IL.
Mets: Tylor Megill, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Núñez
All three of these pitchers underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2025 and are likely to miss the entire 2026 season, making them locks for the 60-day IL. Núñez went under the knife in July, followed by Megill in September and Garrett in October.
Nationals: Trevor Williams, DJ Herz
Williams underwent internal brace surgery in July. That’s a slightly less serious variation of Tommy John but still usually requires about a year of recovery. Herz underwent a full Tommy John procedure in April. Since that surgery usually requires 14 months or longer to come back, both pitchers are likely out until around the All-Star break and therefore bound for the 60-day IL once the Nats need some roster spots.
Orioles: Félix Bautista
Bautista underwent shoulder surgery in August, and the club announced his recovery timeline as 12 months. He’s a lock for the 60-day IL and may miss the entire season if his recovery doesn’t go smoothly.
Padres: Yu Darvish, Jhony Brito, Jason Adam
Darvish underwent UCL surgery in November and will miss the entire 2026 season. Instead of going on the IL, he may just retire, but it seems there are some contractual complications to be ironed out since he is signed through 2028.
Brito and Adam could be borderline cases. Brito underwent internal brace surgery in May of last year. Some pitchers can return from that procedure in about a year. Adam ruptured a tendon in his left quad in early September. In November, he seemed to acknowledge that he wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day. As of now, a trip to the 60-day IL seems unlikely unless he suffers a setback.
Pirates: Jared Jones
Jones required UCL surgery on May 21st of last year. The Bucs announced an expected return timeline of 10 to 12 months. The shorter end of that window would allow Jones to return fairly early in 2026. If it looks like he’ll be on the longer end of that time frame, he could wind up on the 60-day IL.
Phillies: Zack Wheeler
Wheeler underwent surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in September, with a timeline of six to eight months. As of now, it seems unlikely Wheeler would require a trip to the 60-day IL, but it depends on how his ramp-up goes. He’s also approaching his 36th birthday, and the Phils could slow-play his recovery.
Rangers: Cody Bradford
Bradford required internal brace surgery in late June of last year. He recently said he’s targeting a return in May. That’s a pretty aggressive timeline, but perhaps the Rangers will delay moving him to the 60-day IL until that plan is strictly ruled out.
Rays: Manuel Rodríguez
Rodriguez underwent flexor tendon surgery in July of last year and is targeting a return in June of this year, so he should be a lock for the 60-day IL.
Reds: Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar
Both of these pitchers required Tommy John surgeries late in 2024, Williamson in September and Aguiar in October. They each missed the entire 2025 season. Presumably, they are recovered by now and could be healthy going into 2026, but there haven’t been any recent public updates.
Red Sox: Tanner Houck, Triston Casas
Houck is the most clear-cut case for Boston. He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2025 and will miss most or perhaps all of the 2026 season. Casas is more borderline. He’s still recovering from a ruptured left patellar tendon suffered in May of last year. It doesn’t seem like he will be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline apart from that is murky.
Rockies: Jeff Criswell, Kris Bryant
Criswell required Tommy John surgery in early March of last year. With the normal 14-month recovery timeline, he could be back in May. Anything slightly longer than that would make him a candidate for the 60-day IL. Bryant’s timeline is very difficult to discern. He has hardly played in recent years due to various injuries and is now dealing with chronic symptoms related to lumbar degenerative disc disease. Updates will likely be provided once camp opens.
Royals: Alec Marsh
Marsh missed 2025 due to shoulder problems and is slated to miss 2026 as well after undergoing labrum surgery in November.
Tigers: Jackson Jobe
Jobe required Tommy John surgery in June of last year. He will miss most or perhaps even all of the 2026 season.
Twins: None.
White Sox: Ky Bush, Drew Thorpe, Prelander Berroa
These three hurlers all required Tommy John surgery about a year ago, Bush in February, followed by Berroa and Thorpe in March. Given the normal 14-month recovery period, any of them could return early in 2026, but they could also end up on the 60-day IL if the timeline pushes slightly beyond that.
Yankees: Clarke Schmidt, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Anthony Volpe
Schmidt is the only lock of this group. He required UCL surgery in July of last year and should miss the first half of the 2026 season. Cole is recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in March of last year. His target is expected to be late May/early June, so he has a decent chance to hit the 60-day. However, given his importance to the club, the Yankees probably won’t put him there until it’s certain he won’t be back by the middle of May.
Rodón had surgery in October to remove loose bodies in his elbow. He’s expected to be back with the big league club in late April or early May, so he would only hit the 60-day IL if his timeline is pushed. Volpe required shoulder surgery in October. He’s not expected to be ready by Opening Day, but his timeline beyond that doesn’t seem concrete.
Photo courtesy of Allan Henry, Imagn Images
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
In the same way that players feel extra pressure to produce entering their last season before free agency, managers and front office bosses similarly feel the heat when entering the final year of their contracts. The difference is that even if a player has a rough season, they’re usually still in position to land at least a one-year deal in some fashion for the next year — a manager or a GM could find themselves fired in the wake of a bad year, with no guarantee about when (or even if) they’ll get another shot at leading a dugout or a front office.
This list details the baseball operations bosses (whatever their specific title) and managers who are entering the final year of their contracts, as well as the personnel whose contractual situations aren’t publicly known. Some clubs don’t publicize the terms of employee contracts, so it is entirely possible that some of these names signed extensions months ago but the teams have chosen to keep these new deals quiet for the time being. And, of course, the length of a contract doesn’t always correlate to job security. One bad season or even a poor start could suddenly threaten the status of a manager or head of baseball ops that seemingly seems safe right now.
As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts.
Angels: It’s pretty unusual to see a newly-hired manager already on this list, yet that is the situation Kurt Suzuki finds himself in after signing just a one-year guarantee to become the Halos’ new skipper. The deal has multiple club option years attached, and while one would imagine Suzuki wouldn’t be let go so quickly, the Angels’ manager’s office has been enough of a revolving door in recent years that it is hard to guess what owner Arte Moreno might do next. GM Perry Minasian is also entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a club option for the 2027 season. Ten consecutive losing seasons has led to a lot of discord in Anaheim, and an eleventh sub-.500 year might get both Suzuki and Minasian sent packing by next offseason.
Astros: GM Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada are each entering their final season under contract, with Brown hired in January 2023 and Espada in November 2023. Earlier this month, Astros owner Jim Crane didn’t entirely close the door on the possibility of an extension for either Brown or Espada, but said “I think we’ll go through this year like we always do, evaluate it and then make the decision at the end of the year.” Reading between the lines, it certainly seems like the spotlight will be on Brown and Espada, especially since the Astros are coming off their first non-playoff season since 2016. While the team’s laundry list of injuries is a valid excuse for their 2025 letdown, some personnel changes might well be coming if Houston can’t get back into the postseason hunt this year.
Athletics: General manager David Forst’s contract has already expired, as his most recent deal with the team was up following the 2025 campaign. Owner John Fisher has stated that “conversations are ongoing” about another extension, and since it has apparently been business as usual for the A’s this offseason, it seems like it’s just a matter of time before Forst formally extends his long stint in the team’s front office. Forst only officially took over the baseball operations department in the 2022-23 offseason, but he has been with the Athletics since 2000, first working as a scout and then becoming one of Billy Beane’s top lieutenants.
Blue Jays: GM Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider are both entering the final year of their contracts, as the Jays exercised their 2026 club option on Schneider’s deal back in November. This duo was facing heavy pressure heading into the 2025 season, yet Toronto’s AL pennant and near-miss in the World Series has entirely changed the narrative for both Atkins and Schneider. The Blue Jays already extended team president/CEO Mark Shapiro a few weeks ago, and extensions for Atkins and Schneider should follow before Opening Day.
Brewers: Pat Murphy is entering the final season of his three-year contract, but it is hard to believe the Brew Crew won’t have the manager soon locked up on another deal. Murphy has been named NL Manager of the Year in each of the first two seasons, won consecutive NL Central titles, and this October led the Brewers to their first NLCS appearance since 2018. October also saw Matt Arnold receive a promotion from GM to president of baseball operations, even though Arnold has already been the Brewers’ top baseball exec for the last three seasons. Arnold’s specific contract situation hasn’t been made clear for a few years now, but it would surely seem like Milwaukee’s continued success and his new job title probably landed the PBO an extension at some point. Regardless, Arnold seems in no danger of being fired even if 2026 is his last year under contract.
Cardinals: Oli Marmol is headed into his final year, but the manger and the Cardinals have already started discussing an extension to retain Marmol beyond the 2026 campaign. It seems like something should be finalized in due course, with St. Louis continuing to entrust Marmol with the reins as the team now moves into a full-on rebuild phase.
Diamondbacks: Torey Lovullo has quietly become one of baseball’s longer-tenured managers, as Lovullo has been running Arizona’s dugout since the 2016-17 offseason. He has signed multiple extensions (none for more than two guaranteed years) since his initial three-year pact, yet while 2026 represents the final year of Lovullo’s current deal, the Diamondbacks are reportedly going to let Lovullo enter the season without an extension in place. Owner Ken Kendrick did praise Lovullo’s efforts in keeping the D’Backs competitive amidst a swath of pitching injuries and a partial trade deadline selloff in 2025, but it is intriguing that the vote of confidence wasn’t backed up by another contract. This will be a storyline to watch as the Diamondbacks’ season progresses, and a change in the dugout might well be coming if the D’Backs can’t get back into the postseason.
Dodgers: President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman first came to Los Angeles on a five-year, $35MM pact covering the 2015-19 seasons, and he signed an extension back in November 2019. Terms of that deal weren’t known, yet it is clear that if Friedman hasn’t already signed another new deal in the last six years, the Dodgers are almost surely keen in retaining the executive. The Dodgers have reached the playoffs in every single season of Friedman’s tenure, have won three World Series championships under his leadership, and have become baseball’s dominant franchise due to both their record-high payrolls and their ability to draft and develop minor league talent.
Guardians: Chris Antonetti gets an obligatory mention since the Guardians haven’t publicly addressed his contract status since he signed an extension with the team back in 2013. Following the 2015 season, Antonetti was promoted to the president of baseball operations title, and his decade in charge has seen Cleveland make seven postseason appearances. As the Guards are coming off their sixth AL Central crown of Antonetti’s tenure, there is no sense ownership is looking to make a change, nor is there any sense Antonetti (who has turned down overtures from other teams in the past) is looking to leave.
Mariners: Dan Wilson’s contract terms weren’t made public when he was hired as manager in August 2024, and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s status hasn’t been addressed since he signed a contract extension of an unknown length back in September 2021. It may very well be that Dipoto has quietly signed another deal in the last four-plus years, but regardless, the Mariners’ success in 2025 very likely means neither Dipoto or Wilson are going anywhere, even if the M’s don’t feel the need to publicize any extensions.
Marlins: Previous Miami GM Kim Ng was signed to a three-year contract with a club option for the 2024 season, and the Marlins chose to pass on that option in order to hire Peter Bendix as the new president of baseball operations. Terms of Bendix’s contract weren’t disclosed, so given the length of Ng’s contract, it is possible Bendix could also be entering his final guaranteed year if Miami pursued the same structure with another first-time front office boss. While Ng’s dismissal caught many in baseball by surprise, Bendix’s job appears to be a lot safer, as the Marlins’ surprising surge to 79 wins in 2025 is a promising step forward for the team’s (latest) rebuild.
Mets: Carlos Mendoza is entering the final guaranteed year of his three-year contract, and New York holds a club option on the manager’s services for the 2027 season. The Mets have overhauled both Mendoza’s coaching staff and a good chunk of the roster in the wake of the slow-motion collapse that left the team outside the playoff picture in 2025, so far more is expected than just an 83-79 record this year. The club option probably means that the Mets will wait until after the season (if at all) to discuss an extension, and given the Mets’ high payroll and expectations, even a slow start might put Mendoza’s status in jeopardy.
Orioles: Mike Elias’ contract terms were never publicized when he was hired to lead Baltimore’s front office in November 2018, though he did receive a title change from general manager to president of baseball operations last offseason. Elias’ specific contract status remains unspecified, and it is possible he could be facing more heat if the O’s have another subpar season. Consecutive playoff appearances were followed by the thud of a 75-87 record in 2025, though ownership appears to have given Elias some support in the form of bigger budget, as the Orioles’ busy offseason has been highlighted by the blockbuster Pete Alonso signing.
Padres: Reports in early November suggested that A.J. Preller was close to signing a new extension to remain as San Diego’s PBO, though close to three months later, there hasn’t been any word of a deal between the two sides. It could be that a contract was signed but simply not publicly announced, or perhaps Preller and the team agreed to table the negotiations until after most of the Padres’ offseason business was complete. Considering all the reports of discord within the Padres’ ownership situation and some possible tension between Preller and team CEO Erik Greupner, a contract extension probably shouldn’t be considered a sure thing until a deal is actually done, though things still seem to be leaning in the direction of Preller getting re-upped. For all of the off-the-field drama that has frequently defined Preller’s long tenure in San Diego, the Padres are coming off their fourth playoff appearance in the last six seasons.
Reds: As Cincinnati is coming off its first playoff berth since 2020, president of baseball operations Nick Krall looks to have a decent amount of job security, and might be in line for an extension depending on his current contract status. Krall has been in charge of the Reds’ front office for the last five seasons, and he received an extension of an unspecified length when he was promoted to the president of baseball operations title following the 2023 campaign.
Tigers: Scott Harris has now finished three full seasons as Detroit’s PBO, so if a four-year contract might be considered the usual minimum for a first-time president of baseball ops, 2026 might be Harris’ final year under contract. It’s all speculative, of course, since Harris’ terms weren’t made public, and it might also be a moot point since Harris could be an extension candidate, if anything. The Tigers have made the second round of the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, though the team’s late-season collapse in 2025 and the uncertainty over Tarik Skubal’s future remain areas of concern.
Twins: Derek Falvey’s shocking decision to step down as Minnesota’s president of baseball (and business) operations has unexpectedly made GM Jeremy Zoll the top voice in the team’s front office. Zoll was promoted to the GM role in November 2024 to become Falvey’s chief lieutenant, and the length of Zoll’s contract isn’t known. It is fair to guess that Zoll might’ve gotten an extension after becoming general manager, so he probably remains under team control through at least 2027 even after this sudden elevation to the head of the baseball ops department.
White Sox: Chris Getz has been the team’s GM since August 2023, and his tenure has included a record 121-loss season in 2024 and an improvement to “only” 102 losses in 2025. Getz’s contract term wasn’t publicized at the time of his hiring so this is just a speculative entry in case his first deal was only a three-year pact. There doesn’t appear to be any sense that ownership is displeased with the Pale Hose’s progress during the rebuild, so if Getz actually did sign a three-year deal, the Sox might look to extend him at some point this season.
Yankees: Brian Cashman is the longest-tenured front office boss in baseball, acting as the Yankees’ GM since February 1998. That remarkable 28-year run has included 28 winning records and four World Series titles, though the team hasn’t won the Series since 2009. Owner Hal Steinbrenner appears to trust Cashman as much as ever, so it seems very likely that Cashman’s tenure will stretch into a third decade barring an utter disaster of a 2026 season. Cashman’s last deal covered the 2023-26 seasons, but since the Yankees’ aversion to extensions also extends to personnel as well as players, he might not sign his next contract until after his current deal actually expires. It’s a sign of Cashman’s job security that he has waited until December to sign each of his last two contracts to remain with the club.
Blue Jays Sign Connor Seabold To Minor League Deal
The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Connor Seabold to a minor league deal, according to the transactions tracker at MLB.com.
A third-round pick by the Phillies back in 2017, the 30-year-old Seabold made his big league debut back in 2021 and has collected 119 big league innings across parts of four seasons in the majors. Though he began his MLB career with two years in an up-and-down role with Boston, the majority of Seabold’s time in the majors came as a member of the Rockies in 2023. The righty served as a swingman for the Rockies that year, and while he managed 87 1/3 innings of work between 13 starts and 14 relief outings, Seabold’s numbers were far from impressive.
The righty struggled to a ghastly 7.52 ERA with Colorado. As if often the case when it comes to Rockies pitchers, that bloated ERA doesn’t tell the full story. An elevated .338 BABIP and a strand rate of just 60.3% indicate that Seabold had some poor fortune when it came to batted balls and sequencing, though that hardly excuses a 16.4% strikeout rate and a 10.1% barrel rate. Those underlying numbers suggest severe deficiencies in Seabold’s game even after accounting for bad luck, and that’s backed up by his 5.75 FIP and 5.03 SIERA that year.
Seabold didn’t appear in the majors in 2024, as he headed to the KBO to pitch for the Samsung Lions. He made 28 starts for the Lions and looked good doing it, with a 3.43 ERA in 160 innings. That allowed him to catch on with the Rays last year, and he appeared for seven appearances with Tampa and Atlanta. Unfortunately, this was more of the same for the right-hander. While he combined for a 4.35 ERA and 4.20 FIP this year, a 12.5% walk rate and a 15.6% barrel rate both suggested that he was fortunate to surrender so little damage. A lackluster 6.07 ERA at the Triple-A level between the Rays’ Durham affiliate and Atlanta’s Gwinnett affiliate only further underscores his struggles last year.
Of course, even with those flaws it still remains true that Seabold has only ever gotten a significant look at the big league level in the difficult pitching environment of Colorado. Perhaps he’ll find a way to earn a more significant role with the Jays this year, though he’s surely being signed purely as a depth option given their wide array of starting options. Dylan Cease was signed to lead the rotation at the outset of the offseason. He and Cody Ponce will join existing starters Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and Jose Berrios in the mix of starts entering the year, with Bowden Francis, Eric Lauer, and Yariel Rodriguez among the organization’s depth options. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann could also break into the majors this year. Such a deep cache of starters could leave Seabold without a clear path to the majors this year without a large number of injuries or a move to the bullpen.
Blue Jays Sign CJ Stubbs To Minor League Contract
The Blue Jays have signed CJ Stubbs to a minor league deal, as per the catcher’s MLB.com profile page. The contract apparently doesn’t contain an invitation to Toronto’s big league Spring Training camp, as Stubbs wasn’t included on the Jays’ list of spring invites released earlier this week.
A tenth-round pick for the Astros in the 2019 draft, Stubbs was cut loose by Houston in May 2024, and he then quickly inked a new minor league deal with the Nationals. This stint in the Nats organization resulted in Stubbs’ first taste of Major League action, albeit a small one. Stubbs’ MLB resume consists of a single game, as he went 0-for-3 while starting behind the plate in the Nationals’ 2-0 win over the Marlins on September 1. Starter Andrew Alvarez was also making his big league debut, and Stubbs guided Alvarez (over five innings) and four Nats relievers to a two-hit shutout.
This noteworthy game didn’t result in any more playing time for Stubbs, and he elected minor league free agency after being outrighted off Washington’s 40-man roster in late October. Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman are locked into the Blue Jays’ catching duties, but Stubbs’ cup of coffee in the Show is still enough to make him the only other catcher in the organization with any MLB experience. Depending on whether or not the Jays add any other catching help on a minors deal, Stubbs currently projects as the first call-up if Kirk or Heineman got injured.
The 29-year-old Stubbs doesn’t have a ton of experience even at Triple-A, as he has 45 games and 145 plate appearances over parts of three seasons with the Astros’ and Nationals’ top affiliates. He has hit .222/.366/.453 with six homers over that small Triple-A sample, and Stubbs has a career minor league slash line of .206/.315/.396 over 1854 PA. Stubbs has hit 72 homers in the minors and even stolen 52 bases (out of 20 attempts), but he has struck out in 648 of his 1854 PA.
MLBTR Podcast: What The Tucker And Bichette Contracts Mean For Baseball – Also, Nolan Arenado And Ranger Suarez
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The overlapping stories at the top of the market and what they might mean: The Dodgers agreed to a deal with Kyle Tucker. The Mets gave Tucker a similar offer but then pivoted to signing Bo Bichette. Tucker had a long-term offer from the Blue Jays and Bichette from the Phillies but both went for the short-term deals. Is this some kind of paradigm shift or just unique circumstances? (1:50)
- Could we ever predict this type of pivot in our Top 50 post in future years? (17:25)
- How these deals impact parity, the upcoming expected lockout, collective bargaining agreement, etc. (34:35)
- Bichette’s fit in the Mets’ position player mix (recorded prior to the Luis Robert Jr. trade) (1:04:25)
- The Cardinals trading Nolan Arenado to the Diamondbacks (1:15:25)
- The Red Sox signing Ranger Suárez (1:26:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Cubs Land Cabrera And Bregman, Remaining Free Agents, And Skubal’s Arbitration Filing – listen here
- Contracts For Imai And Okamoto, And Thoughts On The Pirates And Giants – listen here
- Three-Way Trade, Murakami’s Short-Term Deal, And Willson Contreras To Boston – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images
Dodgers Sign Kyle Tucker
The two-time defending champions have done it again. The Dodgers officially announced their four-year, $240MM contract with Kyle Tucker on Wednesday afternoon. The deal includes $30MM in deferrals and will come with an approximate $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes. Tucker, a client of Excel Sports Management, receives a $64MM signing bonus — all but $10MM of which is paid upfront — and can opt out after the second or third seasons. Outfielder Michael Siani was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Los Angeles will pay the first $54MM signing bonus next month. They’ll owe the remaining $10MM in February 2027, and the signing bonus is guaranteed even in the event of a work stoppage. Tucker will make a $1MM salary this year, followed by a $55MM salary in ’27 and $60MM annually for the final two years if he doesn’t opt out. The team is deferring $10MM annually in the final three years, which will be paid in installments between 2036-45.
Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. He slots into a lineup alongside Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.
Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with arguably the biggest annual value in the sport’s history.
It’s a $60MM average on the surface. Without adjusting for deferrals, Tucker’s deal would be the second-highest AAV ever. Ohtani landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder until tonight. Tucker’s adjusted AAV beats that by more than $6MM.
Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star who’s a little outside the top tier of superstars. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, he broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full campaigns, improving his approach along the way.
Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. He was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out for three months.
The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a fantastic September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.
Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. He jammed his right thumb diving into second on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.
The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.
The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.
Tucker appeared to be getting back into a groove when he hit another speed bump. He strained his left calf in early September and landed on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the season’s final month. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line in a little under 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.
The uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on the Tucker acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career marks. The offense was 36 percentage points better than league average by wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above par. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only exception is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games two years ago.
The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they’re adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and has a rare blend of plus contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no issue hitting pitchers of either handedness. He doesn’t have the huge exit velocities of the sport’s premier sluggers, yet he’s a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.
Tucker’s glove isn’t as strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and sprint speed have declined as he’s gotten into his late-20s. That presumably gave teams pause when considering a long-term investment. Tucker’s defense should remain serviceable in the short term. The Dodgers can comfortably plug him into right field and kick Hernández over to left if they don’t trade him.
The Cubs issued Tucker a qualifying offer but made little effort to retain him. The bidding seemingly came down to the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. New York was similarly hesitant to make a long-term commitment, as they reportedly offered a four-year deal at $55MM per season. Toronto was seemingly willing to entertain a longer term at a lower annual value.
Tucker is L.A.’s second qualified free agent signing of the offseason. They added Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69MM deal around the Winter Meetings. They surrendered their second- and fifth-round draft choices this summer, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Díaz. They’ll forfeit their third- and sixth-round picks for Tucker. The Cubs receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (currently slated to land 77th overall).
MLBTR had predicted an 11-year, $400MM deal for Tucker at the beginning of the offseason. It’s unclear if any team would have been willing to go to those lengths. He’s giving up some measure of long-term security in exchange for massive salaries over the next couple seasons and the chance to return to free agency at the tail end of his prime.
He’ll have the option of retesting the market before his age-31 and age-32 campaigns — and without being attached to draft compensation barring a change to the qualifying offer rules in the intervening CBA. A five- or six-year guarantee could be well within range at that point. He’ll collect a huge signing bonus, essentially shatter the record for average annual value, and join the team with the best chance to win the World Series in the interim.
While the specific salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, the Dodgers are reportedly paying $54MM of the signing bonus right away. RosterResource estimates their cash payroll obligations close to $428MM for the upcoming season. Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV will push their competitive balance tax projection north of $395MM.
They’re taxed at a 110% rate on spending above $304MM, so Tucker’s deal comes with a staggering $62.81MM tax hit in the first season. The Dodgers are essentially valuing Tucker’s 2026 season alone at $120MM. L.A. ended last season with a luxury tax payroll of $417MM, costing them another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the final payroll calculations of 12 teams. They’re trending towards a similar or potentially even greater amount in 2026 depending on what else they do this offseason and at the trade deadline. The aggressiveness continues as they aim for the first three-peat in MLB since the 1998-2000 Yankees.
Tucker’s deal is going to be the latest example for many fans and smaller-market owners who will argue for a salary cap in the upcoming round of collective bargaining negotiations. This level of spending also reaffirms why the MLB Players Association has steadfastly maintained that a cap is a non-starter. Next offseason’s CBA talks are expected to be similarly or even more contentious than those that froze the sport for 99 days during the 2022-23 lockout.
That’s not the concern of the Dodgers or their fans, who’ll be thrilled to add another star as they try to cement their dynastic run. They’ll be heavy favorites in the NL West, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this team doesn’t make the playoffs. A championship is far from guaranteed, however. The Jays were one swing away from beating them in Games 6 and 7 of last year’s World Series. An extra quarter-second on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s dash home or another few feet on Ernie Clement’s fly ball in the bottom of the ninth would have flipped the outcome. L.A. ownership and the front office aren’t getting complacent.
After missing on Tucker, the Jays seem likely to reengage with Bo Bichette. Their longtime shortstop is now the top unsigned player. He has reportedly had a productive meeting with the Phillies, but the Jays and Bichette have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion. Bichette wouldn’t be a great fit for the Mets, but they could conceivably pivot to challenging the Yankees for Cody Bellinger. The Mets still don’t have a left fielder after swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Their reported offer to Tucker demonstrates there’s plenty of room for short-term spending, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from lengthy commitments this winter.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Tucker was signing with the Dodgers. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had it as a short-term contract, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first on the four-year, $240MM guarantee. Murray reported the opt-out after the second season, and Passan had the third-year out. Heyman reported the $30MM in deferrals. Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News was first on the $57.1MM post-deferral AAV. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the signing bonus details. The Associated Press had the salary breakdown and deferral specifics.
Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.