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Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

L.A. District Attorney’s Office Will Not File Felony Charges Against Julio Urias; Case Referred For Misdemeanor Consideration

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The Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office has determined not to file felony charges against free agent pitcher Julio Urías, reports Alden González of ESPN (X link). The investigation has been forwarded to the L.A. City Attorney’s Office to determine whether misdemeanor charges are warranted.

Urías, then a member of the Dodgers, was arrested and booked on a felony charge of “corporal injury on a spouse” on September 3. According to ESPN, police alleged in the arrest report that Urías was arrested after a physical altercation between a man and a woman following an MLS game. Law enforcement turned the case over to the District Attorney’s Office in mid-December.

Prosecutors have evidently determined not to proceed with the felony case. Whether misdemeanor charges are filed will determine if the criminal proceedings continue. The decision not to bring felony charges is not a declaration that no assault of any kind was committed. Jack Harris of the L.A. Times reports that the D.A.’s office’s charge evaluation worksheet claims that Urías “pushed his wife against a fence and pulled her by the hair or shoulders” but stated that “neither the Victim’s injuries nor the Defendant’s criminal history justify a felony filing.”

MLB will presumably wait on the resolution of the criminal matter before deciding whether discipline is warranted. The league can impose discipline even in the absence of criminal charges under the Joint Domestic Violence policy with the Players Association.

In 2019, MLB suspended Urías for 20 games after determining he violated the domestic violence policy at that time. (He was arrested on the 2019 incident but did not face criminal charges after the DA’s Office agreed to defer prosecution.) No player has yet been suspended twice for violations of the domestic violence policy.

Urías spent the remainder of the 2023 season on administrative leave. He became a free agent at the start of the offseason thanks to his six years of service time. He finished the year with a 4.60 ERA in 21 starts.

Brent Suter Drawing Some Rotation Interest

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Eight teams are involved in the market for free agent pitcher Brent Suter, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray adds that a few of those clubs have told the left-hander’s camp they’d be interested in stretching him back out as a starter.

Suter has worked in relief for the last five years. His only consistent rotation run came in 2017-18 when he combined to make 32 starts in 42 outings for the Brewers. Suter had generally solid results over that stretch. He posted a 4.09 ERA while holding opponents to a .259/.300/.429 slash in 165 innings as a starter. Milwaukee nevertheless kicked him into relief as they continued developing starters with higher upside than the soft-tossing Suter provided.

The Harvard product has quietly turned in consistently strong numbers in relief as well. He has topped 60 innings while allowing between three and four earned runs per nine in each of the last three seasons. That’s despite hitter-friendly home environments. After pitching parts of seven years in Milwaukee, he was claimed off waivers by the Rockies last offseason.

Suter didn’t have any issues acclimating to Coors Field. He turned in a 3.38 ERA in 69 1/3 innings. As has always been the case, he did so without missing many bats. Suter struck out 18.8% of batters on a modest 9.3% swinging strike rate. He did a solid job avoiding walks and keeping the ball on the ground. Suter also proved one of the toughest pitchers for opponents to square up, a skill he has shown throughout his career.

The 34-year-old clearly has the ability to be a successful reliever. There’d be more of a leap of faith in projecting him as a starter. However, as Murray points out, Suter has effectively handled hitters from either side of the dish. Since the start of 2021, he has held right-handed batters to a .250/.309/.376 slash in 586 plate appearances. Lefties own a .236/.321/.399 mark over 291 trips. That should keep opponents from stacking a lineup with right-handed bats if Suter were tabbed as a starter. He also has the command to hold up for multiple innings and a traditional four-pitch mix (four-seam, sinker, changeup, slider).

A few former relievers have gotten chances to start as free agents. Michael Lorenzen made that jump two years ago. Seth Lugo had a very good season out of the rotation with the Padres, positioning him for a three-year pact with Kansas City in a return trip to free agency this offseason. The Braves are considering that possibility with Reynaldo López. Perhaps Suter will get a chance to join that group, although he doesn’t throw nearly as hard as any of that trio. There haven’t been any teams publicly linked to him in free agency. Colorado held onto him despite interest at the trade deadline, in part because Rox GM Bill Schmidt noted in July the team had interest in an extension.

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Update

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MLB Trade Rumors’ annual free agent prediction contest drew 6,135 entries this year, and as we hit Christmas Day, the leaderboard informs us of a five-way tie for first place.  Vivek Patel, Tom Diesman, Alan Capellan, Michael Scriven, and Ryan Ohara each have correctly picked seven of the 19 top-50 free agents who have signed to date, based on our original Top 50 Free Agents list published on November 6.  The leaders’ .368 average on their picks is sure to drop as the winter continues, yet there’s a chance the 2023-24 champ can remain ahead of last year’s pace, set by winner Steve Sacks and his .295 (13 of 44) average.

Thirty-nine entries are in a tie for sixth place, right behind the leaders with a .316 (6-for-19) average.  This group includes MLBTR’s own Leo Morgenstern, who has burst onto the scene in his rookie year to thus far control the sub-contest between our site’s staffers. Morgenstern’s Julio Rodriguez-esque emergence has put him ahead Nick Deeds (4-for-19) and myself and Tim Dierkes (3-for-19).

Marc Narducci: My Hall Of Fame Ballot

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Marc Narducci spent 37 years covering all sports for The Philadelphia Inquirer before retiring in July 2021. He covered everything from high school sports to the Phillies winning the World Series and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl. A lifelong southern New Jersey resident, he remains a freelance writer and broadcaster. Once again, Marc reached out to see if MLB Trade Rumors would be interested in publishing his Hall of Fame ballot. I am happy to do it and hope it can be an interesting topic of debate for our readers. Here’s Marc…

This was an extremely difficult baseball Hall of Fame ballot because it causes debate over those who prioritize longevity over others who place emphasis on shorter-term excellence.
Before going into the ballot, a little bit about the philosophy of this voter.

First off, I won’t criticize anybody’s ballot. There are many different opinions on what a Hall of Fame player should be and that is fine.

As stated last year at MLBtraderumors.com and in also in 2021, I have not voted for those associated with steroids.

As one can see from the comments sections, there are many of you who have disagreed and that’s fine. I’m not here to try to convince anybody to change his or her mind. This is just the way I feel, how the steroid era put such a stain on the game.

I have also not voted for Carlos Beltran, who admittedly was the mastermind of the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. Those actions cost him his job as a manager and for now, this vote.
Again, I can see people who think this is crazy to keep such an accomplished player off the ballot. I’m not here to attempt to convince anybody either way, just to say this is what went into my voting.

I don’t think all the Astros should be punished, but that’s another story for another day.

Now, for the ballot.

There are two holdovers who I voted for last year and we will start there.

Todd Helton

Helton, now in his sixth year on the ballot, is close to the finish line. He received 72.2% of the votes. Just a refresher, a player needs 75% of the votes. For those who didn’t see last year’s story, we’ll reiterate his case.

The negative perception is that he was a product of playing his entire career at Coors Field. The splits were significant home and away.

Yet his .287/.386/.469 slash line on the road was impressive, but it did pale in comparison to his numbers at Coors – .345/441/.607.

His career line was .316/414/.539.

While the sabermetrics community may scoff at batting average, it takes a lot to hit .300 for a season, let alone a career. Last season just nine players with the required 502 plate appearance hit .300.

In 2000, Helton won a batting title hitting .372.

Here were his splits that season – home: .391/.484/.758. Away: .353/.441/633.

He was a first baseman who wasn’t known for his power, but he still hit 369 home runs and had 1,406 RBI, while playing all 17 seasons for the Rockies.

Helton was a five-time All-Star, a four-time Silver Slugger winner and a three-time Gold Glove recipient.

It’s more than enough to put him on this ballot.

Billy Wagner

Wagner is in his ninth year on the ballot and keeps moving closer. (How a person fares on other ballots doesn’t impact this vote, but it is good to note how close or far somebody is from being elected).

Wagner last year earned 68.1% of the votes.

The two knocks against Wagner are his low innings total and his postseason struggles.

Both are valid points.

Wagner pitched just 903 innings. His postseason production, even though it only consisted of 11 1/3 innings over 14 appearances, was poor to say the least. He had a 10.03 ERA, although Wagne did convert all three save opportunities.

His positives outweigh the negatives.

In looking for a HOF player, I like to see excellence. Wagner’s 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum of 750 innings pitched) is the best in MLB history.

Wagner had 422 saves, and an impressive save percentage (86%). His career 2.31 ERA and 187 ERA+ are second best among HOF relievers. Only Mariano Rivera (2.21 ERA, and 205 ERA+) is better in both categories.

The newcomers

Adrian Beltre

There won’t be much convincing to do here. Beltre’s career 93.5 rWAR is surpassed by just two HOF third basemen – Mike Schmidt (106.8) and Eddie Matthews (96.0).

Here were Beltre’s career numbers – .286/339/.480 for his career with 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1707 RBI and a 116 OPS+. One thing that is interesting is that he was just a four-time All-Star. He won five Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers and was a Top 10 MVP finisher six times.

The only question with Beltre is whether he will be a unanimous choice.

Joe Mauer

Here is where the debate starts. The knock against Mauer is that while he was an excellent catcher, he only played the position for a decade. Due to concussions from catching, he moved to first base for the final five seasons. He caught 70 or more games eight times. In total he caught 921 games, making 885 starts as a catcher.

In those 10 seasons he hit .323/405/.469 with a 135 OPS+.

When somebody does something historical, the feeling here is that it should add to his HOF candidacy. Mauer is the only catcher to win three batting titles, in 2006, 2008 and 2009. In those three years, he caught 120, 139 and 109 games respectively. He batted .347 in 2006, .328 in 2008 and .365 in 2009.

During those first 10 seasons, he was a six-time All-Star, won an MVP (in 2009) and finished in the Top 10 four times. Mauer also earned five Silver Slugger awards and three Gold Gloves.

Is that enough production in a decade of work?

Due to the demands of the position, we think so.

Plus, how much did the toll of catching and the injuries contribute to the decline after he switched positions?

His final five seasons were well below HOF worthy – .278/.359/.388 with a 105 OPS+. Never a big home run hitter, he hit 38 of his career 143 home runs in the final five seasons.

Still, even with the decline, here are his career statistics – .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+.

Only eight HOF catchers have a higher career rWAR than Mauer (55.2).

He certainly did enough in his years as a catcher to make this ballot.

Chase Utley

The longevity issue is what hurts Utley. Utley had a five-year stretch that was definitely HOF standard. From 2005-2009, he hit .301/.388/535 and averaged 29.2 home runs. 110.6 runs, 101.4 RBI, 151 games and 675 plate appearances. His fWAR average for those five years was an astonishing 7.7.

During this span Utley earned four of his six All-Star appearances.

The Phillies made the playoffs the final three of those seasons, winning the World Series in 2008 and losing to the NY Yankees in the 2009 World Series. Utley hit five home runs in the 2009 series, which is tied for the most in MLB history. Reggie Jackson in 1977 and George Springer in 2017 also hit five.

He had other strong seasons, but none to match this five-year average.

His career numbers, especially for a second baseman were strong – .275/.358/.465 and a 117 OPS+. He had 1,103 runs and 1,025 RBI. Will the fact that he had fewer than 2,000 hits (1,885) hurt Utley?

Probably in the eyes of some, but he ended up being a six-time All-Star and earning four Silver Slugger Awards.

Only 10 HOF second basemen have a higher rWAR than Utley (64.5). Only four HOF second basemen have more home runs than Utley (259).

Injuries caught up to Utley, but he was more than a five-year wonder. Even after 2009, he would make two other All-Star teams and from 2010-2014 had an average OPS+ of 116.

Utley played the game hard, was a quiet leader of during the greatest run in Phillies history when they qualified for the playoffs five consecutive seasons 2007-2011.

It is understandable for those who feel he didn’t perform at a top level long enough, but he did enough to get on this ballot.

David Wright

New York Mets third baseman David Wright was on a HOF trajectory before spinal stenosis ended his career. Wright’s last full-time year was his age-31 season in 2014.

His counting stats, which included 1,777 career hits and 242 home runs, will be used against him, but Wright had an impressive nine-year peak, where he earned seven All-Star berths. The seven all-star games matched last year’s HOF inductee Scott Rolen.

From 2005-2013, Wright hit .302/.384./.505 with a 138 OPS+. Wright averaged 23 home runs, 90 runs and 93 RBI. During this time, he won two Gold Gloves, two Silver Slugger awards, and finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting four times. After this period, he would play just one more full season, 2014 when the decline began.

His final career numbers were .296/376/.491 and a 133 OPS+. Only seven HOF third baseman have a higher OPS+ than Wright.

Should Wright be penalized for suffering what turned out to be a career-ending injury, that ended his full-time status after his age 31 season?

It can be argued that durability is part of being a HOF player and that is a good case, but Wright was the face of the franchise, a perennial All-Star and a strong two-way performer.

We can see both sides of this argument, just as we can for Utley and to a degree Mauer, but these players did enough to make it onto this ballot, even if their excellence was shorter than some would like.

Download Our Free Trade Rumors App

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At the prompting of MLBTR readers, we have fixed bugs related to leaving comments and muting people in the Trade Rumors iOS app.  Sorry for the delay on those fixes.  If you have noticed other bugs in our iOS or Android apps, please mention them in the comments of this post if you’re so inclined.

The codebase for both apps is getting a bit long in the tooth, so we are planning a full revamp hopefully by late 2024.  If there’s something you’d like to see in the new Trade Rumors app next year, let me know in the comments!

That said, both apps still get the job done, and they allow you to set up feeds and notifications for MLB, NBA, NFL, and/or NHL, as well as any combination of teams and players for those leagues.  Click here to download our iOS app and here for Android.

Please note: many of you may already be reading this post in the app, in which case there’s no need to download anything.  And others may not be aware that the app is based on our four longstanding websites: MLB Trade Rumors, Hoops Rumors, Pro Football Rumors, and Pro Hockey Rumors.

Latest On Shohei Ohtani

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1:32PM: The numbers continue to escalate for Ohtani, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that “Ohtani is believed to already have received multiple bids well north of $500MM, and some speculate he could even wind up as baseball’s first $600MM man.”

11:49AM: Shohei Ohtani’s free agent sweepstakes have been largely shrouded in mystery, as Ohtani and agent Nez Balelo have specifically prioritized a low profile approach to perhaps the most high-profile free agency in baseball history.  As such, there has been a lot of speculation and relatively little facts about Ohtani’s market, though there are some indications that the two-time AL MVP might be coming somewhat closer to a decision.

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) hears from a source that Ohtani “is likely to” make his choice within the week, though this timeline could indicate that the news could come after the Winter Meetings have concluded.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has a slightly different timeline, indicating that Ohtani will make his choice “certainly before the Christmas holidays” but also more than a week from now, so roughly mid-December.

It isn’t a stretch to say that whenever Ohtani does make the call, it will automatically become the most pivotal day of the offseason calendar.  Ohtani is widely expected to sign the largest contract in baseball history, and thus his free agency has to some extent held up the market as a whole.  Such known suitors as the Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs have largely held off on any other major business until they know if they’ll be adding a $500MM+ Ohtani contract to their long-term payroll plans.  As such, several top players have yet to make their own free agent decisions, waiting for these big-spending potential suitors to more fully engage in the rest of the market — and possibly be more eager to spend elsewhere after missing out on Ohtani.

Since it’s only December 3, it’s worth reminding that the offseason isn’t even at the halfway point yet, and Ohtani is hardly taking any sort of unusually long time in deciding on his next team.  Given the sport-altering amounts of money involved and how any free agent decision big or small is a life-changing decision for a player, it would’ve been more surprising if Ohtani had already made his choice this relatively early into the winter.

So little is known about Ohtani’s thought process that it is hard to say whether or not the aforementioned five teams (or any possible mystery teams) could be true finalists.  However, the last few days has seen the Red Sox, Rangers, and Mets reportedly all step back from the Ohtani sweepstakes in some sense, perhaps indicating that the bidding has either gotten too high, or that Ohtani’s camp has given some indication that these three clubs are no longer in consideration.

Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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6,135 people submitted entries in MLBTR’s annual free agent prediction contest!  The contest leaderboard is now available.  Tom Diesman is currently in the lead with an impressive five correct picks for the seven top 50 free agents who have signed so far.  Tom’s lofty .714 contest batting average surely won’t last, but he’s off to a blazing start having nailed the destinations of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo Lopez, and Nick Martinez.  Last year, Steve Sacks won the contest with a .295 average (13 of 44).

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list was originally published on November 6th.  You can check that out here.

 

Several Teams Interested In Vladimir Gutierrez

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Free agent right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez has several teams interested in him, reports Francys Romero.

Gutierrez, now 28, was once a high-profile prospect that signed with the Reds after he defected from his native Cuba. The club gave him a bonus of $4.75MM but effectively had to pay double under the old bonus system, a 100% tax for going over their limit. That meant they paid $9.5MM to get Gutierrez into the system.

As he worked his way up the minors, he became a notable prospect in their system, with Baseball America ranking him one of the 10 best Reds’ prospects in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. His stock has dimmed since then, however. In 2020, before he had reached the majors, he received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He was nonetheless added to the club’s 40-man roster to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft. He went on to appear in 32 games over the 2021 and 2022 seasons but required Tommy John surgery in July of 2022. He made five minor league appearances late in 2023 as part of a rehab assignment but was still on the IL at season’s end.

He was set to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a modest bump to $1MM. That’s barely above the major league minimum salary, which will be $740K in 2024. But the Reds evidently didn’t want to give him that raise, as he was outrighted off the roster in October. Now he’ll be looking to jump to a new organization for the first time in his career.

He once looked like a potentially useful rotation piece, making 22 starts for the Reds in 2021 when he was just 25 years old, posting a 4.74 earned run average. His 17.7% strikeout rate was subpar but his 9.3% walk rate and 43.4% ground ball rate were around league average. Unfortunately, his results were rough in 2022, as his ERA jumped to 7.61 before he went under the knife. During his brief rehab assignment in 2023, he struck out 25.9% of batters faced but also showed plenty of rust with a 22.2% walk rate.

Now a free agent, Gutierrez would be a low-cost project for any club that signs him. He still has a couple of option years, meaning he could be kept in the minors as a depth piece by any club that gave him a roster spot. He’s also shy of three years of service time, meaning he could potentially be retained for future seasons via arbitration if he is able to get into good form.

All reporting indicates the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high this offseason and some clubs will inevitably miss out on the costlier free agents, which will leave them looking for cheaper options. Even big spending clubs needs to have depth pieces, which could give Gutierrez widespread appeal, given his options and cheap club control.

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