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Trade Rumors: Santana, Rockies, Reds, Puig, Ender, Rangers, Mets, Nats

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Mariners first baseman Carlos Santana is drawing a fair amount of interest just over a week into his tenure with Seattle. The Rays, Indians, Rockies and Marlins have all reached out to the Mariners regarding the 32-year-old switch-hitter, per reports from Corey Brock of The Athletic and colleague Ken Rosenthal. The Indians and Marlins jump out as particularly interesting clubs on the four-team list. Santana played in Cleveland from 2010-17, but the team wasn’t willing to match the Phillies’ three-year, $60MM winning bid for the then-free agent last offseason. He now has $40MM left on that deal, which looks high for an Indians team trying to reduce payroll and get younger this winter. The Marlins certainly aren’t big spenders, meanwhile, and unlike the Indians, they don’t figure to contend during the two remaining years of Santana’s contract. In any case, it seems like a solid bet that the rebuilding, payroll-slashing Mariners will flip Santana, whom they acquired largely to help balance out money in a swap with Philly that was headlined by pricey shortstop Jean Segura.

  • Along with Santana, the first base-needy Rockies have interest in the Indians’ Edwin Encarnacion, the White Sox’s Jose Abreu and the Padres’ Wil Myers, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets.
  • The Dodgers and Reds have had “multiple” trade discussions involving outfielder Yasiel Puig and other players, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Puig’s “in play,” as are other Dodgers outfielders and some of their pitchers, per Rosenthal, who notes that they’d like to clear payroll in order to make room for other potential acquisitions. Interestingly, Rosenthal reports there’s a possibility of the Dodgers taking on Reds righty Homer Bailey’s $28MM to essentially buy prospects from Cincinnati. Bailey would count $17.5MM against the competitive balance tax, making his money easier to deal with for LA than his salary. But there’s no trade close as of now, Rosenthal adds.
  • More on the Reds, who have expressed interest in Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. However, no trade is imminent, and it’s not clear what the Braves asked for in return, Sheldon writes. Inciarte would be an upgrade over ex-Red Billy Hamilton, whom they non-tendered last month. For the Braves, trading Inciarte would free up center field for Ronald Acuna Jr. Although, as a 28-year-old with up to four affordable seasons left on his contract, it would likely take a significant return for Atlanta to move Inciarte.
  • The Rangers have engaged in trade discussions with both the Braves and Mets, TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. Unsurprisingly, pitching-starved Texas is seeking young and controllable arms, according to Sullivan, who notes that the Braves and Mets are looking for outfield help. However, New York’s seeking a right-handed outfielder, as Sullivan points out, and the Rangers’ most notable outfielders (Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo) are lefty-swingers.
  • The Nationals are reportedly willing to trade righty Tanner Roark, whom general manager Mike Rizzo spoke about Tuesday. Rizzo told Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and other reporters that the Nationals will only move Roark if they add another starter first. As of now, there’s nothing imminent, Zuckerman relays.

Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin

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Dec. 11: Corbin’s deal includes a $2.5MM signing bonus, per Heyman, and the following yearly salaries: $12.5MM in 2019, $19MM in 2020, $24MM in 2021, $23MM in 2022, $24MM in 2023 and $35MM in 2024.

Dec. 7: The Nationals have formally announced the signing of Corbin to a six-year contract.

“As the top free agent pitcher on the market this offseason, we targeted Patrick from the onset,” said general manager Mike Rizzo in a statement within the press release. “He was one of the top pitchers in the National League in 2018 and at 29 years old, we believe the best is yet to come. We are thrilled to bring him into our organization.”

Dec. 6: Just $10MM of salary is deferred, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’ll be due in a period from November of 2024 through January of 2026, so ultimately it’s only a small portion of the contract that won’t be kicked very far down the road.

Dec. 4: The Nationals have agreed to a deal with veteran lefty Patrick Corbin, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Corbin, a client of ISE Baseball, has landed a $140MM guarantee over a six-year term, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

"<strongDeferrals will reduce the true, present-day value of the deal, but it’s still a huge sum. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the deferrals will be relatively minor, though details aren’t yet known. There will not be an opt-out opportunity in the deal, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets. That’s one area in which the Nats will avoid giving further value. (As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained, those increasingly common clauses convey sometimes-significant value to players.) There’s no word yet as to whether Corbin will obtain any no-trade protection.

It turns out that Corbin will not only top the $126MM guarantee achieved last winter by Yu Darvish,but will do so handily. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Corbin would beat Darvish slightly, grading him as the top arm on the market. That seemed an aggressive prediction at the time, with many other outlets suggesting Corbin would earn less, but his market took off from the outset with several large-market clubs driving the bidding.

The Nats ultimately topped the Yankees (who entered as the perceived favorite) and division-rival Phillies to get a deal done. It long seemed a match with the New York club made the most sense, due not only to need and spending power but also to Corbin’s well-known roots in New York. It turns out the Yanks were unwilling to move past a $100MM offer on a five-year term, per Billy Witz of the New York Times (via Twitter). The Phillies also were stuck on five years, per Heyman (Twitter link).

Corbin’s decision to head to D.C. represents the first major move of this winter’s free agent market. He’ll join Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to make up an imposing trio atop the Nats’ rotation — a unit that still could be supplemented with another addition. All three will be playing on nine-figure deals, representing a remarkable overall commitment to maintaining a top-level pitching staff.

This is the most significant acquisition yet for the Nats, but hardly the first. Previously, the Nationals lined up a new catching duo (Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki) and added a pair of relievers (Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough). Clearly, the organization is fully committed to a run at a return to glory in 2019 and beyond. The same can be said of much of the rest of the division, setting the stage for a fascinating remaining winter of dealmaking (to say nothing of the season to come).

Because he declined a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, Corbin’s signing will trigger some draft pick implications. The Nats will cough up a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder as well, as they were one of two teams that paid the competitive balance tax in 2018. The D-Backs will add a sandwich round pick (after the conclusion of the first round).

It’s a big price for the Nats to pay, but they obviously felt it was worth it to add a 29-year-old pitcher who took major new strides in 2018. Corbin threw exactly 200 frames for the Snakes, working to a 3.15 ERA and — more importantly — looking every bit an ace in doing so. He ended the season with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 48.5% ground-ball rate, leaving ERA estimators gawking (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA). Notably, Corbin’s eye-popping 15.6% swinging-strike rate was orders of magnitude superior to his prior personal-best (11.0% in the season prior) and ranked as the second-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in the Majors. That occurred even as his average fastball dipped below 92 mph for the first time since he established himself as a full-time MLB starter.

Beyond questions of the sustainability of Corbin’s performance, many will wonder whether this contract brings too much health risk. The southpaw missed all of the 2014 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery, after all. Of course, the Nats have not shied away from TJ patients in the past, and Corbin has otherwise mostly been a rather durable hurler by today’s standards. He topped two hundred frames in 2013 and slung 189 2/3 in the 2017 campaign. Plus, the still-youthful hurler has a deeper potential advantage for longevity: he did not push his arm on the youth baseball circuit and did not even join the baseball team in high school until he was a junior.

The addition of Corbin at such a lofty rate will leave many to wonder whether the Nationals have moved on from Bryce Harper. The addition of Corbin’s $23.33MM annual salary will bring the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $188MM for the 2019 season — about $17.9MM south of the luxury tax line. Obviously, adding Harper to the fold would tax the Nationals well north of the $206MM luxury line, but the Nationals demonstrated last year that they were comfortable crossing that threshold.

Beyond that, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has suggested that the Nats payroll could support both an extension for Anthony Rendon and a new contract for Harper. While it’s possible that the addition of Corbin could make it difficult to ultimately sign both Rendon and Harper long-term, Rizzo’s prior comments at the very least lend credence to the notion that both Corbin and Harper could coexist on an increasingly large payroll. Furthermore, as Janes tweets, the Nats’ front office knows that in order to retain Harper, ownership will need to make an “unprecedented commitment” and looks to be building up the roster while leaving a decision on Harper in the hands of the Lerner family.

Now that the dust has cleared, Corbin has ended up topping some notable recent price points. In addition to beating the Darvish deal, he’ll receive more total money than Johnny Cueto ($130MM), though that contract included an early opt-out chance, as well as Jordan Zimmermann ($110MM). The contract will still fall comfortably shy of Jon Lester’s somewhat front-loaded, $155MM pact with the Cubs in December of 2014.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Spots Images.

Player Rumors: Realmuto, Gonzalez, Roark

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The Marlins are downplaying rumors of a potential 3-team swap that would send catcher J.T. Realmuto to the Mets, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). The Yankees would also be included in this hypothetical blockbuster, but the Marlins aren’t lending much credence to the idea. They do plan to move Realmuto, it seems, and with only three teams reportedly in the mix, the Marlins could be narrowing in on the market. Still, the rumor mill shifts every few moments when it comes to Realmuto, and it would seem prudent to temper expectations of a deal until word comes from Marlins camp directly. Elsewhere in player rumors…

  • First baseman Adrian Gonzalez hopes to continue his playing career in 2019, and he’s improved his conditioning to do so, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). It’s an unforgiving market for inflexible corner infield types, however, and Gonzalez has not seen a lot of traction since he last saw the playing field with the Mets early in 2018. Still, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets the Diamondbacks could have interest in signing the veteran bat. Gonzalez, 36, has played for the Rangers, Padres, Red Sox, Dodgers and Mets across a long and storied career, but his opportunity to see significant playing time would seem to have passed. The Diamondbacks are a curious fit, if only because Gonzalez is unlikely to develop into much of a trade chip, given the current market interest, and playing time at first base is likely committed to restoring the value of Jake Lamb, a much higher-upside potential asset. Still, adding Gonzalez as a clubhouse veteran and lefty bat off the bench isn’t wholly unreasonable for a transitioning team like Arizona, especially given the exodus of so many veteran leaders. Speculatively speaking, Gonzalez could fit the mold of a been-there, seen-that veteran leader the Cubs are reportedly seeking, and their recent trade of Tommy La Stella did open a roster spot that’s been held by a lefty bat used more-or-less exclusively as a pinch-hitter. At this stage of his career, however, with his slugging numbers cratering in his last two campaigns, Gonzalez is unlikely to be a primary target anywhere, and he may have to earn a spot on a major league team as a non-roster invitee. 
  • Tanner Roark’s name is being floated in trade circles as someone the Nationals would be willing to surrender, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). This jives with earlier reports that the Nationals continue to seek rotation reinforcements, even after the signing of Patrick Corbin. Roark, 32, has been a steady rotation presence for the past three seasons, though he has yet to recapture the magic of a 2016 that saw him post a 16-10 record with a 2.83 ERA over 210 innings. The last two seasons seem more in line with expectations moving forward, as Roark has averaged 30 starts, 181 innings, and a 4.50 ERA (4.20 FIP) over that span. His 2019 salary is projected around $9.8MM, making him a relatively affordable one-year option as he enters his last year of arbitration, though depending on the assets being asked in return, a free agent flyer, in the ilk of Tyson Ross’s recent $5.75MM deal with Detroit, may be just as (if not more) attractive to teams looking to fill out the back end of their rotation. For the Nationals, it’s a little surprising to see them shopping Roark given their lack of established depth in the upper levels of the minors. It’s not surprising that they’d want to upgrade the rotation behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Corbin, but to do so at the cost of Roark feels unnecessarily Sisyphean. After dealing Jefry Rodriguez to the Indians in the Yan Gomes deal, top in-house rotation candidates beyond Roark include Joe Ross, 25, Erick Fedde, 25, and Kyle McGowin, 27 – none of whom would necessarily be considered “established” rotation pieces.

Nationals Notes: Rendon, Harper, First Base

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The Nationals have made multiple extension offers to third baseman Anthony Rendon, GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com), with Rizzo noting that both sides have interest in a long-term deal.  Rendon is entering the final year of his contract, and he put himself in line for a major payday after his strong numbers in 2017-18.  Extending Rendon would add yet another big contract on the Nationals’ long-term books, and between locking up Rendon and signing Patrick Corbin to a six-year, $140MM pact, it would seem that Washington could be pricing itself out of Bryce Harper’s market.  More on that and other Nats-related topics here…

  • After Nationals managing principal owner Mark Lerner recently commented that the team’s ten-year, $300MM offer to Harper would be its best and final offer for the star outfielder, Scott Boras (Harper’s agent) was in touch with the team expressing concern about Lerner’s statement, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports.  Specifically, Boras had some dismay that Lerner had violated league rules about how teams can publicly discuss contract talks with players, though Boras hadn’t contacted the MLBPA about the situation.  Janes outlines how Lerner’s statement didn’t technically breach the rule, though “even those within the Nationals organization were a little surprised to see their new controlling owner speak with such candor.”  Regardless of what has or hasn’t been said, however, Boras said on Monday that his negotiations about Harper and the Nats will be with family patriarch Ted Lerner, a relationship that has paved the way for many Boras client to land in Washington over the years.
  • The Nationals are looking for a first base complement to Ryan Zimmerman that is also capable of playing second base, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman writes.  This player would spell Zimmerman occasionally or take over at first base entirely if Zimmerman was injured, while under normal circumstances playing second base a few times per week (with Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo also being in the mix).  Zuckerman speculates on a few names that would fit this description, ranging from Marwin Gonzalez to less-pricey options like Daniel Descalso, Neil Walker, Derek Dietrich, or Yangervis Solarte.

The Orioles’ Managerial Search

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Two weeks after tabbing Mike Elias as their new GM, the Orioles are finally making reported progress on hiring a manager. Baltimore parted with previous skipper Buck Showalter nearly two months ago, but the slow-moving GM search that eventually led the team to Elias has left it as the majors’ last club without a manager. Appointing Showalter’s successor will be one of the first noteworthy decisions Elias makes atop the Orioles’ front office, but given that the O’s are in the early stages of a full rebuild, win-loss record certainly won’t be the main focus when judging their manager in 2019.

Here’s a look at where the Orioles’ search stands thus far:

Latest Updates (Dec.10)

  • Speaking with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter links) and other reporters today, Elias said that he won’t be meeting with any more candidates beyond the six initial names, and there may not be a second round of interviews.  Elias said he hopes to have the new manager in place before the end of the month.
  • Former Indians and Nationals manager Manny Acta is another candidate for the Orioles’ job, according to Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (via Twitter).  Acta oversaw rebuilding efforts in his previous two managerial jobs, leading to an unimpressive 372-518 record but doing little to harm Acta’s reputation as an analytically-open manager who works well with young players.  Acta has worked as the Mariners’ third base coach for the last three seasons.
  • Astros bench coach Joe Espada won’t be interviewing for the Orioles’ job, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  Espada was a popular candidate for managerial openings this offseason, and his past connection with Elias in Houston made him an interesting fit for the O’s on paper.

Previous Updates

  • Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond has interviewed for the job, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  Redmond posted a 155-207 record as the Marlins’ skipper from 2013 to May 2015, shepherding the team through one of its many rebuilding periods and then getting fired after a slow start in 2015, as then-owner Jeffrey Loria had playoff aspirations after adding talent that winter.  Redmond has been Colorado’s bench coach for the last two seasons, and he was also mentioned as a candidate for managerial openings with the Tigers and Phillies last offseason.
  • The Orioles will interview at least six candidates in person, including Nationals bench coach Chip Hale, Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde and Royals catching/quality control coach Pedro Grifol, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The 54-year-old Hale has previous managerial experience, which the O’s are thought to prefer, according to Rosenthal, though he suggests it isn’t a dealbreaker. A former major league infielder, Hale managed the Diamondbacks to a combined 148-176 mark from 2015-16. Hale has since served on the staffs of the A’s and Nats, and he drew managerial interest from the Phillies and Mets a year ago.
  • Hyde, 45, was on the radars of the Blue Jays, Twins and Angels when they were seeking managers earlier in the fall. He comes with plenty of coaching experience, having worked as a minor league manager with the Marlins from 2005-09 before functioning as their bench coach from 2010-12. Hyde has been on the Cubs’ coaching staff since 2013.
  • The 49-year-old Grifol has been in his present position since 2014. The former minor league catcher brings experience as a major league hitting coach (Royals, 2013-14) and a minors manager (with low-level Mariners affiliates from 2003-05 and in 2012).
  • Diamondbacks director of player development Mike Bell will interview, Peter Gammons reports. He’s the son of former major league manager Buddy Bell and brother of rookie Reds skipper David Bell. Mike Bell, 43, garnered interest from the Rangers during their managerial search after the season. He’s a former professional third baseman who, prior to landing his current gig, coached and managed in the Diamondbacks’ minor league system.

Pitching Notes: Gray, Reds, Ray, Santana, Pomeranz, Nationals, Eovaldi

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While the Yankees have broadcast far and wide their intentions to deal Sonny Gray, they are still shopping for the best possible return, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The Yanks are said to have tried to pry loose well-regarded prospect Taylor Trammell from the Reds, though unsurprisingly that effort proved unsuccessful. Sherman suggests that could be an indication that New York has good offers in hand — or, alternatively, that the Yankees are swinging for the fences just in case a big score can be found.

There’s certainly no shortage of interest in Gray, as GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including Sherman) that 11 teams have checked in on the right-hander.  “We haven’t found the sweet spot yet” in talks, Cashman said, as the Yankees are exploring a variety of offers involving Gray from a smaller number of teams than that initial 11-club group.

Some more on the busy pitching market…

  • Teams who have called the Diamondbacks about Robbie Ray say that the left-hander isn’t available in trade talks, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  That tracks with reports from earlier today, which stated that the D’Backs had put a very high price tag on Ray, even if the southpaw isn’t entirely untouchable.  Ray is controlled for the next two seasons at fairly reasonable arbitration costs, giving Arizona less incentive to him than a player entering his last year under contract (the already-dealt Paul Goldschmidt) or a player taking up a massive chunk of the payroll (i.e. Zack Greinke).  The D’Backs are telling teams they aren’t entering into a complete rebuild, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).
  • There is “widespread interest” in Ervin Santana, as per MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link), though a signing doesn’t seem imminent.  Finger surgery limited Santana to just 24 1/3 innings in 2018, and he feels he’ll probably sign later in the offseason once he can display to teams that he is fully healthy.  Santana is an intriguing buy-low candidate, given that he posted solid-to-excellent numbers in the five seasons prior to his injury-marred 2018 campaign.
  • Also from Cotillo, another bounce-back candidate in free agent lefty Drew Pomeranz has drawn interest from a “handful” of suitors.
  • Even after signing Patrick Corbin, the Nationals searching for another starter, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link).  Tanner Roark is coming off a middling season and Joe Ross only just returned from Tommy John surgery, so there’s certainly some room for Washington to improve at the back of their rotation beyond the big three of Corbin, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg.  Beyond another starter, Heyman also said the Nats are looking to add a reliever and a second baseman.
  • Three other teams were finalists for Nathan Eovaldi before the right-hander re-signed with the Red Sox, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets.  The Angels were one of the finalists, and Eovaldi himself implied that the Astros were another, saying that he strongly considered pitching in his hometown of Houston.  It isn’t known who the fourth finalist was, though the Phillies also had interest in Eovaldi, but as a closer, reports The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter link).  Eovaldi’s desire to remain as a starting pitcher closed the door on that opportunity, however.

Free Agent Chatter: Nats/Harper, Miller, Kelly, Keuchel, Halos

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So, are the Nationals really out of the picture for Bryce Harper, as owner Mark Lerner strongly suggested recently? Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes that he’s not yet sold that the incumbent Nats have completely bid adieu to their franchise-defining star. It’s an interesting read for fans to contemplate as Harper’s still-uncertain market continues to evolve … particularly now that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo nudged the door back open to a return in an interview today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link).

Here are the latest free agent notes emanating from the Winter Meetings:

  • Free agent lefty Andrew Miller is among the relievers drawing wide interest, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Nine teams, in fact, are knocking down the doors of Miller’s reps. It’s hardly surprising to hear that the veteran has interested about a third of the league. After all, there are indications he may be returning to full health, and he’s among the game’s best relievers when he’s at full speed.
  • Right-handed reliever Joe Kelly is also among those hurlers who is getting plenty of calls, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. Kelly’s physical tools — especially, a blistering heater — have never been in doubt, and he showed some promise of turning them into sustainable productivity late in 2018 with some notable pitch usage tweaks and a strong postseason run. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Kelly would match Miller with a three-year, $27MM deal.
  • It’s still difficult to get a sense of the precise teams to watch on most relievers. The same is largely true, it seems, of lefty starter Dallas Keuchel. He’s the most accomplished hurler on the market, but there’s also clearly some cause for trepidation as to how he’ll age. There are also conflicting signals now as to his top suitors. Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter links) recently said that Keuchel topped the Braves’ “wish list,” with the Reds and Phillies the other two “primary teams” involved in his market. But MLB.com’s Mark Bowman strongly contests that characterization, tweeting that the Atlanta organization has not even “had any discussions regarding Keuchel” to this point. And Heyman now tweets that the Atlanta organization is “not currently engaged” with Keuchel. The bottom line seems to be that, even if the Braves would like to add Keuchl (or another particular hurler), they are not interested in chasing the market on any specific starter.
  • To this point, it has been hard to gauge the Angels’ stance on the market this winter. While the organization no doubt hopes to add pieces in a bid to build a winner around Mike Trout, financial restraints, rotation questions, and a challenging division pose barriers. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link) that the Halos were in on both Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi before they signed elsewhere, perhaps indicating that the club will knock on some other notable doors over the coming weeks. MLBTR’s in-depth recent assessment of the Angels’ payroll situation reveals that there could be some real money to work with, though precisely how much and how it’ll be deployed remains to be seen.

NL East Notes: Ottavino, Robertson, Mets, Nats, LeMahieu, Realmuto

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The latest from around the NL East…

  • The Mets have Adam Ottavino and David Robertson on their list of bullpen targets, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino tweets.  It’s fair to assume that the Mets are casting a wide net in their search for relievers, and either Ottavino or Robertson would represent an excellent setup option for newly-acquired closer Edwin Diaz.  Since Robertson would reportedly prefer to pitch for a team in the Northeast, the Mets may have a geographical edge on many suitors, though other clubs in the area (i.e. the Red Sox and Yankees) have also been linked to Robertson’s market.
  • In other Mets news, the team continues to explore possibilities on the trade front, though some of their most high-profile options (both internal and external) don’t seem to have much traction at the moment.  Both Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman and SNY.tv’s Andy Martino report that the Mets and Padres don’t seem close on a possible Noah Syndergaard swap since San Diego refuses to include elite prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. in talks (not to mention some other top minor leaguers, as Heyman reported last week).  On the acquisition front, Martino also notes that there doesn’t seem to be much cooking between the Mets and the Marlins or Indians in respective talks about J.T. Realmuto or Corey Kluber.
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters (including the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty) on Friday that he had been in touch with DJ LeMahieu’s camp, with the caveat that the team has checked in on close to 40 players as a matter of due diligence.  Second base stands out as a logical position of need for the Nats, as Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo represent the club’s top current options at the keystone, though Rizzo noted that he is comfortable with that duo going into the season.  Middle infield prospect Carter Kieboom could also be a long-term answer by 2020 or 2021, so a free agent in search of a lengthy multi-year commitment (like LeMahieu) might not be a perfect fit.  Then again, MLBTR predicted only a two-year contract for LeMahieu, so if a longer deal isn’t on the table anywhere else, the Nats could sign him for their win-now push and then prepare to have Kieboom take over come 2021.
  • All eyes will be on J.T. Realmuto during the Winter Meetings, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro provides a roundup of the trade speculation swirling around the Marlins catcher.  Though at least 14 teams have expressed some type of interest in Realmuto, it doesn’t seem as if any deal is close, as Miami is holding firm on very high trade demands for the All-Star.  The Marlins are intent on adding quality young talent for Realmuto, and aren’t willing to dilute their return just to get some more money off their books, Frisaro writes.  This would seem to rule out a scenario where the Marlins try to attach a high-priced player like Martin Prado as part of a Realmuto trade.

Lerner: Nationals Don’t Expect To Re-Sign Bryce Harper

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In a candid interview with Grant Paulsen and Danny Rouhier on 106.7 The Fan, Nationals managing principal owner Mark Lerner cast significant doubt on whether Bryce Harper would return to the organization. While Lerner didn’t comment on the size of the team’s reported last-minute extension offer — it was reported to be worth $300MM over 10 years — he also made it clear that the Nats likely do not have a higher offer in them.

“Well, when we met with them and we gave them the offer, we told them, ’This is the best we can do,'” said Lerner of the September extension offer. “We went right to the finish line very quickly, and we said, ’If this is of interest to you, please come back to us and we’ll see whether we can finish it up.’ But we just couldn’t afford to put more than that in and still be able to put a team together that had a chance to win the NL East or go farther than that.”

Obviously, Harper and agent Scott Boras passed on the offer in favor of free agency. In the two and a half months since that offer was said to be put forth, the Nationals have added starter Patrick Corbin, catchers Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes, and relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough. Corbin was promised $140MM over a six-year term. Suzuki signed for two years and a total of $10MM, while Gomes is owed $9MM in 2019 and can earn as much as $27MM over the next three seasons by virtue of a pair of club options. Rosenthal received a $7MM guarantee, and Barraclough projects to earn $1.9MM next year.

While Nats president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo reiterated earlier that the club sees its negotiations with Harper as “independent” of the high-dollar signing of Corbin, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier tweets, Lerner suggested some connectivity. In light of the team’s new commitments, he said, it “may very well be” that the $300MM offer to Harper is now off the table even in the event that he and Boras have a change of heart and wish to accept those terms.

Ultimately, Lerner dumped a big bucket of cold water on the notion of a reunion. “I really don’t expect him to come back at this point,” he stated. “I think they’ve decided to move on. There’s just too much money out there that he’d be leaving on the table. That’s just not Mr. Boras’ MO to leave money on the table.”

That last line may draw some attention, but it also describes the approach of most players and agents in free agency. Plus, Lerner did not express any disappointment at the idea of Harper going elsewhere for a bigger payday. “It’s the opportunity of a lifetime for Bryce and Kayla and their family,” he said, “adding that “we have no hard feelings about it.” Neither is Lerner concerned about the state of the Nationals’ outfield unit without Harper, saying it’s a “young, pretty incredible outfield defensively, and certainly with the bat it’s going to be special.”

Of greater interest, really, is the prior line — “there’s just too much money out there that he’d be leaving on the table” — in which Lerner hints that Harper still has good cause to anticipate that he’ll beat the $300MM he had in hand from the Nats. Whether that’s based upon specific knowledge or just his sense of things isn’t clear; regardless, it’s a notable statement from someone as well-placed as anyone to know how the market is developing for a top-shelf free agent represented by Boras (who has negotiated many a deal with the Lerners).

Patrick Corbin Signing “Imminent”

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2:40pm: Corbin is evidently nearing agreement, as Morosi tweets that a signing is “imminent.” He’s said to be lining up a six-year deal, though it’s not yet clear with what team.

With the Yankees only putting five years on the table, it seems they aren’t going to get the lefty, Morosi adds on Twitter.

10:55am: There’s still no marked movement on the bidding for free agent lefty Patrick Corbin, but we’re continuing to see indications that the action is building to a crescendo. With interest spiking in the top open-market hurler, Bob Nightengale of USA Today cites multiple league sources for the proposition that Corbin is expected to meet or exceed the contract value that Yu Darvish achieved last winter (Twitter link).

That level of payday is just what MLBTR predicted in ranking Corbin as the third-best free agent on this year’s market. At the time, that seemed a rather aggressive estimation of his value. More recently, though, some have wondered whether Corbin might not drive well past the Darvish deal (six years, $126MM).

How high the bidding will go remains to be seen. Indeed, it’s not yet fully clear whether Corbin will actually top Darvish, even if he can. Nightengale suggests it’s possible that Corbin might be asked to “take a discount” to end up with the Yankees, who could be looking to get the life-long fan of the Bronx Bombers to sign for less.

The precise strategy of the Yankees isn’t entirely clear; certainly, the organization could boost its bid if Corbin demands it and there’s a bigger offer on the table. Regardless, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes on Twitter that the Yankees are still locked in on Corbin, though he reminds that they’ve also engaged in secondary targets. That more or less mirrors what GM Brian Cashman stated on the record last night.

If Corbin currently sits atop the New York priority list, it seems the same is true of the Phillies, as Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. Indeed, some “rivals speculate” that the Phillies are the favorite, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets, though perhaps that can be said of most any of the team’s free agent targets this winter given its ample spending capacity and clear imperative to win. As Nightengale adds on Twitter, the Phillies seem to have made it clear to Corbin that they’ll top the rest of the market to get him.

Meanwhile, Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo offered plenty of his own indications of strong interest in Corbin, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier was among those to report. “He’s a guy that obviously we’re interested in and would fit nicely on this team,” says Rizzo, who made clear that the club still has a somewhat traditional view of the value of rotation assets. “Starting pitching is king,” Rizzo says, leaving little doubt that the Nats are prime players for Corbin and other top arms.

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