Poll: Anthony Rendon’s Future
Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon has been among the majors’ most valuable players since his first full season, 2014, having recorded the league’s eighth-highest fWAR (26.4). The 28-year-old is now enjoying another magnificent campaign, one that may end with career-best offensive numbers, as he has slashed .331/.416/.669 (181 wRC+) with eight home runs in 137 plate appearances. At 19-27, the Nationals haven’t been able to capitalize on Rendon’s excellence this season – nor have they even won a playoff series during his career – and time may be running out for the club to take advantage of his presence.
Rendon is one of the game’s premier impending free agents, a player who’s likely on a collision course with a nine-figure payday over the next few months, and is far from certain to remain in Washington. Rendon has expressed interest in continuing with the Nationals, who have made an effort to extend him, but the team hasn’t been able to close the gap with the Boras Corporation client thus far. With Rendon still not under contract beyond this season and the July 31 trade deadline inching closer, the Nationals may have to decide soon whether to keep the homegrown star or deal him.
If the Nationals rebound from their shaky start and emerge as contenders over the next two months, chances are they won’t consider moving an unsigned Rendon. Otherwise, should the Nats’ woes continue, general manager Mike Rizzo could think about parting with him. The executive was in a similar position last year with Bryce Harper, whom he elected not to give up during the summer even though Washington was treading water and the outfielder was approaching free agency. Rizzo spurned interest from the Astros, Indians and Dodgers (and perhaps other unreported teams), in part because he wanted to continue working toward a long-term deal with Harper. In the end, though, the Nationals neither prevented Harper from testing the market – where he secured the largest contract ever for a free agent (13 years, $330MM) – nor exiting D.C.
Harper joined the division-rival Phillies this past offseason and all the Nationals got for their trouble was a draft pick after the fourth round, given that they exceeded the luxury tax in 2018 and he rejected their qualifying offer. This time, if the Nationals retain Rendon through the season and he walks in free agency in lieu of accepting a QO, they’re likely to receive a more appealing pick (a selection after Competitive Balance Round B). While the Nationals are only $3MM-plus under the $206MM tax threshold, ownership does not want to surpass that mark this season.
Whether draft compensation for Rendon’s departure would be worth more than the package the Nats would acquire for him in a trade is something Rizzo will have to determine. But it’s possible Rendon would be to this season’s deadline what Manny Machado was to last year’s. Machado’s then-team, the Orioles, oversaw a bidding war for the impending free agent and wound up accepting an offer of five young players from the Dodgers. Ideally for the Nationals, they’ll do what the Orioles couldn’t and lock up their top position player in advance of the deadline. If not, though, Rizzo may have an important choice to make by then.
(Poll link for app users)
What should the Nationals do if they don't extend Rendon?
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Trade him by the deadline if they're not in contention 80% (5,701)
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Keep him through the season no matter what 20% (1,443)
Total votes: 7,144
Injury Notes: Astros, Puig, Yankees, Rosenthal
Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is eligible to return from the 10-day injured list Tuesday, but that won’t happen, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Instead, Altuve – who has been on the IL with a strained left hamstring since May 11 – will embark on a rehab assignment in the coming days. Altuve’s injury forced the Astros to turn to Aledmys Diaz at second, which worked out initially during a Diaz hot streak, but the latter has been dealing with his own hamstring strain since Friday. Fortunately for Houston, Diaz could return early in the upcoming week, per Rome.
- Continuing with the Astros, outfielder George Springer left the team’s game Sunday with lower back stiffness, according to Rome. Astros doctors will examine Springer on Monday. In the meantime, all the Astros can do is hope Springer won’t miss any time. The 29-year-old has already posted 2.9 fWAR, the same total he accrued in 140 games last season, on the strength of a .313/.396/.654 line (179 wRC+) with an American League-leading 17 home runs.
- Reds outfielder Yasiel Puig is hoping to avoid an IL stint after suffering a sprained right shoulder Sunday, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Puig incurred the injury against his former team, the Dodgers, on a leaping catch, though he doesn’t think it’ll lead to an absence from Cincinnati’s lineup. Regardless, Puig’s off to a rocky start in his first season outside of Los Angeles, having hit .206/.253/.358 (58 wRC+) in 178 plate appearances.
- There were concerns over banged-up Yankees starters James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka on Saturday, but both are making good progress, Sarah Langs of MLB.com explains. The same holds true for reliever Dellin Betances, who hasn’t pitched this season because of a bone spur in his right shoulder.
- Nationals reliever Trevor Rosenthal is close to returning to the majors, manager Dave Martinez told Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post and other reporters Sunday. Rosenthal went to the IL on April 26 with a viral infection, which came on the heels of an embarrassing start to the season for the former Cardinals closer. The 28-year-old Rosenthal didn’t record an out until April 10, his fifth appearance of the season, and has allowed 12 earned runs on seven hits and nine walks (against three strikeouts) in three innings.
Nationals Notes: Victor Robles, Justin Miller, Trevor Rosenthal
Good news for the Nationals – relatively speaking – as X-rays came back negative on Victor Robles‘ injured wrist, per Todd Dybas of NBC Sports (via Twitter). He incurred a wrist contusion in last night’s ballgame when Cole Hamels hit him with a pitch in Robles’ second at-bat. It is not yet clear whether Robles will spend time on the injured list, though it seems likely.
Robles – whose 22nd birthday is tomorrow – joins a long list of injured Nats this season, most notably Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner, who also missed time this season after being hit by pitches. As a team, Washington has been plunked 22 times season – or about once every other game – tied with the Twins for 4th most in the league.
The timing is a particular bummer for the Nationals, who just got Turner back from injury last night for the first time since the season’s first week. Robles has been one of the more consistent performers for a disappointing Nats offense, hitting .255/.302/.465 with a team-leading eight long balls and eight stolen bases. The approach is lacking at times, he continues to be frustratingly bunt-happy, and more than once mental mistakes on the basepaths have demonstrated his youth and put him on the wrong end of the highlight reel. Still, the Nationals need Robles healthy if they are going to turn things around this season. Michael A. Taylor can replace him defensively, but Michael A. is lost at the plate and there’s not another natural replacement on the 40-man roster (not with Andrew Stevenson also on the IL). The Nats could use Adam Eaton in center with Gerardo Parra and Howie Kendrick seeing more time in the outfield.
Further adding to the injury ledger, Justin Miller appears headed to the injured list for the second time this season with a rotator cuff strain (per Dybas). Miller has pitched well in stretches across 17 appearances this season, going 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA. The ERA may be buoyed by a .256 BABIP, as FIP paints a decidedly different picture for the bearded righty (7.01 FIP). His fastball has been down a tick at 92.2mph from 93.9 mph last year, though his back pain early in the season – and the current shoulder strain – certainly deserve consideration as part of that story. More to the point for Miller, he has struggled to keep the ball on the ground or in the park (2.87 HR/9, 19 GB%), as was the case last night when he surrendered the first of Kris Bryant‘s three home runs.
Despite continued struggles from the bullpen ahead of Sean Doolittle, major personnel changes do not appear in the offing, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier. With Erick Fedde likely ticketed for the rotation at least for a start, they’ll need another arm in the bullpen as early as before tonight’s game. In a perfect world, Trevor Rosenthal would be ready to contribute, but as Collier notes, his wildness has continued during a rehab stint with Double-A Harrisburg, and it’s hard to imagine trusting him with major league innings at this juncture. Per Mick Reinhard, the host of @MinorConvsPod (via Twitter), Rosenthal pitched on third of an inning in his last outing, giving up one hit, walking one, and throwing two pitches to the backstop. Austin Voth, Tanner Rainey and James Bourque are the most likely 40-man candidates to take Miller’s roster spot.
Nationals Activate Trea Turner, Option Wilmer Difo
The Nationals have announced a series of roster moves, led by the return of shortstop Trea Turner from a lengthy stint on the injured list. Fellow infielder Wilmer Difo was optioned to create space for him.
As expected, starter Anibal Sanchez was placed on the 10-day injured list after suffering a hamstring injury yesterday. Righty Kyle McGowin will head onto the active roster to take the opening and provide the club with some innings in a swingman capacity.
Despite a forgettable opening quarter of the season, the Nats are hardly fully buried in the postseason hunt. They’ll need Turner to get back to his high-flying ways if they’re to overcome some other areas of concern and make up the six-game gap separating them from the Phillies (in addition to leap-frogging the Braves and Mets).
The 25-year-old Turner got off to a great start to the season, but was injured in only his fourth game of action. At his best, he’s among the better all-around shortstops in the game. It remains to be seen whether the fractured finger will have any lingering effects in the field or at the plate, but it shouldn’t prevent him from resuming his torrid stolen-base pace (four in four games after swiping more than forty in each of the past two seasons).
As for Difo, 27, he has had his chances over the past few campaigns but just hasn’t been able to provide enough offense. This year represented a new low, as he’s carrying only a .231/.301/.298 slash through 134 plate appearances. Without Difo, the roster lacks a true shortstop reserve, though Brian Dozier could slide over from second when Turner needs a rest.
McGowin may or may not end up getting a shot at taking a start in place of Sanchez. It’s also possible the club could give the ball to Erick Fedde, though he has been working in a relief capacity. Odds are the Nats will utilize both of those pitchers as needed in the coming days and wait to reassess when Sanchez’s turn comes up again on Tuesday.
Nationals Expected To Place Anibal Sanchez On 10-Day IL
Anibal Sanchez suffered a left hamstring strain that forced him out of today’s start in the second inning, and Nationals manager Davey Martinez told reporters (including Sam Fortier of the Washington Post) that Sanchez is headed for the injured list. This will keep Sanchez out of action for at least one start, though the veteran righty will undergo an MRI tomorrow to determine the extent of the hamstring problem.
Today’s news only adds to what has been a rough start to Sanchez’s stint with the Nationals, as he has managed only a 5.10 ERA over 42 1/3 innings with the club. Following a nice bounce-back year with Atlanta in 2018, Sanchez inked a two-year, $19MM free agent deal with Washington in December, but has thus far struggled to replicate his success from last season.
Sanchez is allowing significant less soft contact in 2019 than he did in 2018, and he has also displayed an uncharacteristic lack of control. Sanchez’s 5.31 BB/9 would be a career high over a full season, far exceeding his 2.7 BB/9 from 2010-18.
The Nationals have already been hit hard with injuries this season, and now have yet another hole to fill with Sanchez set to miss time. Erick Fedde would seem like the most logical candidate to start while Sanchez is out, though Martinez only said that the club was still discussing its options. While Fedde has a history as a starting pitcher, the Nats have been using him as a reliever this season, and a jump back to the rotation could disrupt that has thus far been a solid transition to the bullpen. Fedde allowed four runs to the Mets over 2 2/3 innings today, though he hadn’t allowed a run in eight innings prior to today’s rough outings.
Blue Jays Claim Jimmy Cordero
The Blue Jays have claimed righty Jimmy Cordero off waivers from the Nationals, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca was among those to cover on Twitter. Cordero was sent to Triple-A on optional assignment.
Despite the Nats’ bullpen malaise, other teams are interested in their relievers that have failed to receive MLB looks this year. Cordero follows Austin Adams (traded to the Mariners) in landing on another 40-man roster after being dropped from the D.C. list. Even as it deals with a struggling pitching staff, the Nationals have been forced to make some tough choices to address injuries to its position-player group.
Cordero will also hope also to follow Adams in getting a promotion with his new organization. He wasn’t able to capitalize on a chance last year, recording as many earned runs and walks as strikeouts (a dozen apiece) in 19 frames. No doubt the Jays also noticed that he pumped 98 mph heat and managed an 11.8% swinging-strike rate. Through 12 innings at Triple-A thus far in 2019, Cordero carries a 6.00 ERA with a 17:9 K/BB mix.
Latest On MASN Dispute
MAY 14: Court filings reveal that the recent arbitration ruling largely reflected the decision of the original panel, per a recent report from Jeff Barker of the Baltimore Sun. If the ruling is upheld, MASN will likely be required to disburse something on the order of $60MM to $70MM in back payments to the Nationals. (The panel awarded nearly $100MM in added rights fees, but the network’s profit recalculation would reduce the net dollar amount owed.)
APRIL 23: The Orioles and Nationals have long been embroiled in a dispute regarding TV rights fees from the jointly owned (but Orioles-controlled) Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. Sorting things out with finality has taken ages, but there are finally some new developments of note.
Another arbitration proceeding before MLB’s revenue sharing committee is finally in the books, though the results aren’t yet known, per Ben Strauss of the Washington Post (Twitter links). The Nats are seeking to have the results confirmed by the New York court that has overseen the related litigation between the ballclubs.
The sides originally went to court when the Orioles challenged the committee’s first award of rights fees to the Nats, successfully arguing that the D.C. organization’s counsel had a conflict of interest. Now, the revenue sharing committee has issued a new decision regarding what constitutes fair market value for the rights to televise Nationals games.
Typically, it’s quite difficult to upset an arbitration award in court, though that didn’t stop the Baltimore organization from securing a victory way back in the full of 2015. Whether and how the O’s will attack the new award isn’t known, but it seems likely that the club will keep up what has been an all-out battle until it has exhausted all its options.
Indeed, the Orioles recently opened up something of a new front, as Eriq Gardner of the Hollywood Reporter has covered (here and here). MASN began withholding “cash flow payments” to the Nats early in 2018, then balked at a MLB-run arbitration process. While that’s called for contractually, the Orioles have taken the position that the league has an interest in the dispute because it made the Nationals a $25MM advance to deal with the long-ongoing issue discussed above.
The Baltimore organization then launched a proceeding before the American Arbitration Association. Their unhappy partners to the south responded by putting the matter to the New York court. The initial decision was in favor of the O’s, but it’s of limited moment: the court determined that the AAA panel has the authority in the first instance to determine whether the matter is properly before it, since the contract contemplates a AAA proceeding in the event of a conflict of interest.
Head spinning yet? It should be, as this is all now several layers removed from the underlying issue: what’s fair market value for the Nats’ TV rights? The Orioles have successfully introduced quite a few procedural roadblocks to the D.C. organization’s ability to receive stepped-up pay-outs and even created some possibility of securing a friendlier forum to decide the matter. As things stand, there’s a competing arbitration proceeding even as an award has come down from the revenue sharing committee, with ongoing litigation overlaying things. When and how it’ll all be resolved remains anyone’s guess.
Trea Turner Begins Rehab Assignment
Nationals shortstop Trea Turner is set to launch a rehab assignment today, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports on Twitter. He’ll open at High-A Potomac.
Turner was off to a scorching start to the season before he suffered a broken right index finger, with two home runs and four steals in just four games of action. The club’s ensuing struggles can’t be blamed entirely on the absences of Turner and others, but it has most assuredly not helped.
It isn’t yet known how long Turner will need to ramp back up, but his rehab assignment is capped at twenty days. It seems reasonable to hope that the Nats will have Turner in action for most or all of the month of June; they’ll need him to be at his best if they’re to regain ground in the NL East.
Minor MLB Transactions: 5/13/19
Here are the day’s minor moves from around the game:
- The Pirates outrighted southpaw Tyler Lyons after he cleared waivers, per a club announcement. The 31-year-old reliever will have the option of electing free agency, if he has not already decided to accept the assignment. Through seven seasons in the majors, Lyons carries a 4.20 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9. He gave up five earned in his four frames this year with Pittsburgh, though he had shown better at Triple-A to open the season.
- Righty Michael Blazek is back in the affiliated ranks after signing on with the Nationals, Triple-A communications director Paul Braverman tweeted. Blazek is headed to Fresno after initially signing with the indy ball Lincoln Saltdogs. The 30-year-old reliever has thrown 123 innings in the bigs, mostly with the Brewers, working to a 4.39 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9. Blazek had not actually appeared yet for the Saltdogs, whose season hasn’t yet begun.
Erick Fedde Auditioning For Expanded Role In Nationals Bullpen
Results have been good thus far for Erick Fedde, who in limited action has made a good impression on a struggling Nationals bullpen, per Byron Kerr of MASN Sports. Fedde, a starter in the minors, was brought up for the first time this season on April 28th – and he immediately made an impact. He threw four scoreless innings in relief of Jeremy Hellickson against the Padres that day, keeping a 6-0 deficit at bay and giving the Nationals young bats a chance to heat up. Juan Soto, Victor Robles, and Carter Kieboom became the first trio of teammates younger than 22-years-old to homer in the same game as the Nationals came back to beat the Friars 7-6 in 10 innings. In an unceremonious thank-you, however, Fedde was sent back to Double-A the very next day.
In Harrisburg, Fedde has roasted the competition so far this season, 2.55 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.63 xFIP with 9.85 K/9 to 1.82 BB/9, which includes two-thirds of a combined no-hitter in early April. Fedde, 26, is miscast in Double-A after a full season between Triple-A Syracuse and the majors in 2018, but with their Triple-A affiliate now cross-country in Fresno, the Nationals have kept a few ML-hopefuls close at hand in Harrisburg. Current teammates in D.C. Dan Jennings, Michael A. Taylor, and Adrian Sanchez have all spent time in Harrisburg this year before recalls with quick turnarounds. Fedde is back in the Nats’ bullpen now and potentially in line to take on a larger role, whether as a long man, in a setup capacity, or both.
There is little doubt as to the need for the Nationals, whose bullpen has imploded time and again in 2019 as Dave Martinez searches for a reliable option in the middle-to-late innings. The three-headed monster in the rotation (Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin) somewhat mitigates usage of the pen (111 innings is the lowest mark in the National League), and Sean Doolittle is as good as it gets at the back-end, but there’s still that pesky eighth inning to worry about, and forty percent of the rotation is not among the NL’s top ten in strikeouts, K/9, innings, and WAR as are Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin. (Admittedly, Corbin ranks tied for 14th in the NL with 1.0 fWAR, though his 2.0 rWAR jumps him to second by that measure, while rWAR drops Scherzer out of the top ten into a seven-way tie for 12th. Among those seven is Doolittle, tied with John Gant for the NL rWAR lead among relievers.) Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson have lasted six full innings only once apiece en route to respective ERAs of 5.27 and 5.52, and between the implosion of Trevor Rosenthal, some bad bounces, and a difficulty in stranding inherited runners, the bullpen ahead of Doolittle has been a mess.
Washington’s pen boasts some ugly numbers with a 6.24 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, .342 BABIP, and 65.1 LOB% – all of which rank dead last in the Majors. Still, it’s hard to know exactly what the Nationals have in their pen, as BABIP and LOB% have a tendency to fluctuate, and many of their pen hands have much stronger FIPs than ERAs (Wander Suero, Matt Grace, Joe Ross), and while that could point to some bad luck, they have an equal number of arms on the flip side of the ledger as Doolittle, Justin Miller and Kyle Barraclough‘s ERAs are all outperforming xFIP. Outside of Doolittle, the pen is functioning largely without defined roles so far this season, which is where Fedde’s newfound versatility could prove invaluable. Fedde is adjusting to life in a potential fireman role, but if he can muster a quality outing or two in high-leverage situations – arguably the Nats’ greatest area of need – he will make it very difficult for the Washington brass to shuttle him back to Harrisburg.