Nationals Rumors

Nationals Sign Rusney Castillo To Minor League Deal

By James Hicks | January 20, 2022 at 10:36am CDT

The Nationals signed former Red Sox outfielder and one-time top prospect Rusney Castillo to a minor league deal earlier this month. The 34-year-old Cuban defector, who spent 2021 playing for NPB’s Tohoku Rakuten Goldean Eagles, will most likely begin the season with Triple-A Rochester but could be given a chance to compete for a bench role.

Castillo signed a seven-year, $72.5MM deal with the Red Sox in 2014 after Major League Baseball declared him a free agent, but he never lived up to the lofty expectations that followed. After posting an impressive .333/.400/.528 line in a ten-game cameo to close the 2014 season, the toolsy outfielder opened 2015 with Triple-A Pawtucket, appearing in 80 major league games after a late-May call-up. Though he played sparkling defense in Fenway Park’s atypical outfield, logging 14 Defensive Runs Saved across all three spots, he struggled to get on base and to hit for power, notching only 5 home runs and 13 walks in 289 trips to the plate on the way to a .253/.288/.359 overall line. For his career, Castillo sports a .262/.301/.370 triple-slash in 337 plate appearances across three seasons.

Following a brief stint in the bigs, the Red Sox placed Castillo on waivers in June 2016, outrighting him to the PawSox after he went unclaimed. The outfielder played out the remainder of his contract there, posting a palatable .293/.335/.425 line across parts of five seasons, but was never given another shot to hack it in Boston.

With the rebuilding Nationals’ outfield in a state of flux, Castillo could get the chance to log some time in the bigs in 2022. Despite struggling to a .225/.276/.282 line in Japan’s top division in 2021, he’ll look to compete for a role in an outfield mix that currently includes Yadiel Hernandez, Lane Thomas, Andrew Stevenson, Donovan Casey, and former top prospect Victor Robles alongside all-world right fielder Juan Soto — though an additional spot could open up should the new CBA include a universal DH and the Washington brass seek to lessen Soto’s injury risk by keeping him off the field. Fans should expect the Nats to bring in another minor league free agent or two to join the competition before Spring Training arrives, whenever that may be.

Nationals Overhaul Minor League, Organizational Staff

By James Hicks | January 18, 2022 at 11:24am CDT

The Nationals announced a flurry of new coaching and organizational hires this morning. Per the club’s official announcement, the club has hired more than twenty additional staff members, including to fill fourteen new roles added to their system. The hirings of fifteen-year big-league veteran Coco Crisp (as outfield/baserunning coordinator) and 2003 AL batting champ Bill Mueller (as quality control coordinator) were reported last night (via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post).

The expansion follows a trend in the game that has seen clubs invest substantial resources in support staff, particularly in player development. Among others, the new roles in the organization in 2022 include mental skills coordinator, nutritionist, lower level pitching and hitting coordinators, and a developmental coach at each of the Nats’ four minor league affiliates as well as in the Florida Complex League and the Dominican Summer League.

As Dougherty notes in a piece for the Post, the Nationals ranked dead-last in staff size in 2021, with vacancies even at several MLB-standard positions, including catching coordinator. The club also didn’t have a single full-time staffer assigned to handle its video needs, with the video work necessary for advanced scouting left to an intern at each affiliate. While the blame for a long-barren farm system (commonly ranked among the worst in the game before the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner blockbuster at the 2021 deadline netted a return that included high-end prospects Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray) lies at least in part on trades that shipped out Lucas Giolito, Jesus Luzardo, and others to boost the big-league squad (a project that culminated in a 2019 World Series victory), a thin developmental staff can’t have helped.

Notable hires throughout the system include Joel Hanrahan, whose seven seasons in the bigs included parts of three in DC, as the pitching coach at Low-A Fredericksburg; Delwyn Young, who spent parts of five seasons with the Dodgers and Pirates, as the hitting coach at Fredericksburg; and Dave Jauss, who’s been a big-league assistant with the Pirates, Orioles, Dodgers, and Red Sox and served as the Mets bench coach in 2021, as senior adviser for player development. A full accounting of the Nationals’ non-major league staff can be found in this thread from Jessica Camerato of MLB.com.

Coco Crisp, Bill Mueller To Join Nationals’ Player Development Staff

By Anthony Franco | January 17, 2022 at 10:23pm CDT

Former big leaguers Coco Crisp and Bill Mueller are taking on roles in the Nationals player development department, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (on Twitter). Crisp is joining the organization as an outfield/baserunning coordinator, while Mueller will serve as the club’s quality control coordinator.

It’ll be the first affiliated ball post-playing gig for the 42-year-old Crisp. A switch-hitting outfielder, he suited up for the Indians, Red Sox, Royals and A’s over the course of a 15-year MLB playing career. He last appeared in the bigs with Cleveland during their 2016 pennant-winning season. The following July, Crisp signed on to coach high school baseball in Southern California, a role he’d hold for two seasons. He later worked on the A’s radio broadcast and managed in the inaugural season of the MLB draft league last year.

Mueller, meanwhile, played 11 seasons in the big leagues. He suited up with the Giants, Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers between 1996-2006, claiming a Silver Slugger award and winning the American League batting title with Boston in 2003. In his post-playing days, he spent some time as a scout, hitting coach and front office assistant with a few organizations — most recently working as the Cardinals’ assistant hitting coach between 2015-18.

In the wake of last summer’s sell-off, Nationals’ brass has spoken about their desire to bolster the scouting and player development realms amidst an organizational reset. (Dougherty covered the situation in a full piece last month). To further that effort, general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff are bringing aboard a pair of well-known longtime major leaguers to work with the club’s prospects.

Jon Lester Announces Retirement

By Anthony Franco | January 12, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

After a 16-year major league career, Jon Lester tells Jesse Rogers of ESPN he’s made the decision to retire. “It’s kind of run its course,” the 38-year-old said of his career. “It’s getting harder for me physically. The little things that come up throughout the year turned into bigger things that hinder your performance. I’d like to think I’m a halfway decent self-evaluator. I don’t want someone else telling me I can’t do this anymore. I want to be able to hand my jersey over and say, ’thank you, it’s been fun.’ That’s probably the biggest deciding factor.”

A second-round pick of the Red Sox out of a Washington high school in 2002, Lester entered pro ball as one of the more promising pitching prospects in the Boston system. Within a few years, the left-hander was ranked among the top farmhands in baseball and he made his big league debut at age 22 in June 2006. Lester was faced with incredible adversity just a few months into that run. He was diagnosed with anaplastic large cell lymphoma late in his rookie season, cutting that year short and requiring chemotherapy treatments.

Lester beat the disease and made an inspiring return to the mound in 2007. He made 12 regular season appearances that year, then pitched in three playoff games during the Red Sox’s run to a championship. Making his first career postseason start in Game 4 of the World Series against the Rockies, Lester tossed 5 2/3 innings of scoreless ball. He wound up getting the win in what proved to be the title-clinching game, as the Sox wrapped up a sweep.

Entering 2008, Lester was cemented as a key rotation member on Terry Francona’s staff. Incredibly durable, he’d make at least 31 starts over each of his next six seasons in Boston. While Lester only had two seasons (2009-10) with excellent strikeout numbers, he consistently demonstrated strong control and proved one of the game’s hardest pitchers to square up. A pillar of high-end consistency, Lester posted an ERA between 3.21 and 3.75 in five of six years from 2008-13.

Lester’s run in Boston was littered with accomplishments. He tossed a no-hitter in May 2008, earned back-to-back All-Star selections in 2010-11 and finished fourth in AL Cy Young award balloting during a 2010 season in which he tossed 208 innings of 3.25 ERA ball. Perhaps of most importance, Lester was excellent during the Red Sox’s surprising run to another championship in 2013. He pitched to a 1.55 ERA over 34 2/3 postseason innings that year, including 15 1/3 frames of one-run ball to earn two wins as part of a World Series triumph over the Cardinals.

Ticketed for free agency after the 2014 season, Lester began the year stellar as ever. He tossed 143 innings with a 2.52 ERA for the Red Sox, earning his third career All-Star nod in the process. Yet with free agency looming and the Red Sox on their way to a last place finish, they traded him to the A’s at the deadline. Lester continued to excel over his final few months in Oakland, eventually getting the nod in the AL Wild Card game. The A’s were knocked off by the Royals in one of the more thrilling back-and-forth contests in recent memory, and Lester hit the open market for the first time shortly thereafter.

Ranked by MLBTR as that offseason’s #2 free agent, Lester commanded a six-year, $155MM deal with a Cubs team looking to emerge from a massive rebuild. That’ll go down as one of the best free agent investments in franchise history, as he picked up right where he’d left off upon switching to the National League.

Lester worked 205 innings of 3.34 ERA ball his first season, helping Chicago to the NLCS. The following year, he compiled a 2.44 mark across 202 2/3 frames. He finished second in NL Cy Young voting, earned a fourth All-Star nod, and was arguably the top pitcher on a 103-win team. As he had so often in Boston, Lester shined in the playoffs yet again. He was tabbed that year’s NLCS MVP after tossing 13 innings of two-run ball to knock off the Dodgers. Lester made three outings with a 3.68 ERA during the World Series, in which the Cubs erased a 3-1 deficit against the Indians to end the franchise’s legendary 108-year title drought.

The third World Series title of Lester’s career proved to be his final one, as the Cubs never had quite the same level of success from that point forward. That wasn’t much fault of the veteran southpaw’s, though, as he remained effective for the next few seasons. He paced the NL with 18 wins in 2018, earning another All-Star nod in the process. As he entered his late-30s, Lester’s production finally began to tail off, although he remained remarkably durable and took the ball every fifth day through the expiration of his contract after 2020.

Last winter, Lester hooked on with the Nationals on a one-year, $5MM deal. He made 16 starts with Washington before being flipped to the Cardinals at the trade deadline. Despite lackluster strikeout and walk numbers, he managed a decent 4.36 ERA over 12 starts in St. Louis, proving to be a much-needed stabilizing force for a Cardinals rotation that had been hit hard by injuries. St. Louis made a miraculous September run to a playoff spot, but they fell to the Dodgers in the Wild Card game. Lester didn’t appear in what’ll go down as the final contest of his career.

One of the league’s most reliable hurlers for more than a decade, Lester leaves a fantastic legacy in the game. He tossed 2,740 innings over parts of 16 MLB seasons. He pitched to a 3.66 ERA, won exactly 200 games and struck out just under 2,500 batters. The five-time All-Star was a key contributor to three World Series teams with two separate franchises, and he’ll be remembered by both Red Sox’s and Cubs’ fans as one of the more impactful players in each organization’s recent histories. Lester’s career was valued at between 44 and 46 wins above replacement by FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, before accounting for an incredible 2.51 ERA over 154 playoff innings. According to B-Ref, he earned just over $188MM.

Lester will likely garner some Hall of Fame support five years from now. Whether or not he’s ultimately enshrined in Cooperstown, there’s no question he had a long run of excellence and reliability. MLBTR congratulates Lester on his fantastic career and wishes him all the best in his post-playing days.

Quick Hits: Elian Soto, Yankees, Hinske, Royals

By Mark Polishuk | January 11, 2022 at 10:00pm CDT

While the next international signing period opens on January 15, teams are already lining up the next wave of int’l prospects for years in advance. Washington City Paper’s Byron Kerr writes that the Nationals have agreed to a deal with outfielder/third baseman Elian Soto, the younger brother of superstar Juan Soto, as the 15-year-old has decided to join the D.C. organization when the 2023 signing period opens roughly a year from now. Reports from Z101’s Hector Gomez earlier this week suggested that the younger Soto was preparing to head to the Mets, and Soto seemingly confirmed matters by posting an Instagram video of himself wearing Mets-branded attire. New York was reportedly set to give Soto a $50K bonus, and while Brittany Ghiroli and Maria Torres of The Athletic report that the Nationals topped that offer, it wasn’t with a huge dollar figure, as the younger Soto has intriguing potential but isn’t considered a true top-tier prospect.

Though it is common practice for teams and international prospects to agree to deals well in advance of their eligibility date, deals aren’t completely official until a prospect’s signing period opens, so the younger Soto wasn’t breaking any rules by backing out of his Mets agreement. It also remains to be seen if the 2023 international signing period even exists in its current form, as it has long been speculated that MLB might overhaul the signing process and perhaps institute an international draft as part of the next collective bargaining agreement. This would wipe out the handshake deals teams have made with scores of younger prospects like Soto, and subject these players to a draft with a harder slot value (and less financial flexibility) than the one used in the North American amateur draft.

Coaching Notes: Blue Jays, Vieira, Mets, Stankiewicz, Nationals

By Sean Bavazzano | January 10, 2022 at 8:29pm CDT

The Blue Jays made a noteworthy addition to their coaching ranks Monday, hiring Jaime Vieira as a minor league hitting coach per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. Vieira, a former softball standout and coach, is no stranger to the Toronto organization after spending the past two seasons with the club in various roles. Most recently she occupied a baseball operations research and development role last year, assisting the club with its 2021 draft among other tasks. The bump up to hitting coach reflects success in Vieira’s previously held roles as well as the continuation of an encouraging industry trend to seek out talented personnel regardless of gender. While Vieira is set to serve as the first female coach in the Toronto organization, this news comes in the wake of several other firsts this past week, including Rachel Balkovec’s ascension to manager in the Yankees organization and Genevieve Beacom becoming Australia’s first professional female baseball player.

Some other personnel notes from baseball’s eastern divisions…

The Mets search for a bench coach under new skipper Buck Showalter continues, as Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that the team “checked in on” but was ultimately rebuffed by Grand Canyon University head coach Andy Stankiewicz. Showalter and Stankiewicz have some history, as the latter served as a utility man for Showalter’s Yankees in 1992 and 1993. This cordial refusal is the latest in a string of recent rejections for the Mets organization, who were denied a chance to speak with San Francisco pitching coach Andrew Bailey for their bench coach vacancy earlier today.
The Nationals have made a smattering of recent hires, per Brittany Ghiroli and Maria Torres of The Athletic. Joe Dillon has returned to the organization as a minor league hitting coordinator after a few years as the Phillies’ major league hitting coach. The club has also hired Michael Schatz away from the Reds to serve as the organization’s lead research and development analyst. Lastly, GM Mike Rizzo has also welcomed three new special assistants to his front office: Willie Fraser and Mike Pagliarulo, recently with the Marlins, and Greg Hunter, who last served as a scout for the Mariners.

Quick Hits: Camden Yards, Blue Jays, Nationals, A’s, Valentine

By Mark Polishuk | January 8, 2022 at 10:00pm CDT

The Orioles have called Oriole Park at Camden Yards home for the last 30 seasons, and the team continues to negotiate with the Maryland Stadium Authority about the ballpark’s future and a lease extension. “The good news is both the Orioles and the stadium authority feel very strongly that we want to renew this partnership and that it’s been beneficial for all parties — the state, the city, the team,” Orioles senior VP of administration and experience Greg Bader told The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Barker. The Orioles’ lease at Camden Yards is up in December 2023, though the club can decide by February 1, 2023 whether or not it wants to exercise a one-time, five-year extension that would run through 2028.

Given the mutual interest between the two sides, there doesn’t appear to be any concern that the Orioles would actually leave Baltimore, despite the uncertainty that often surrounds discussions of ballpark leases or renovations. Bader said the team is looking to upgrade OPACY to match “what a lot of newer or renovated ballparks have in terms of those social spaces, those areas for people to engage with baseball the way that people do today.” This could include loge seating, outdoor seating or concession areas, or a sportsbook, as “the Orioles are quite interested in finding the right sports gaming partner.” That said, Bader also stressed that old-school experience of watching a game at Camden Yards (the modern stadium that started the trend towards more retro, baseball-only venues) wouldn’t be significantly altered. “We’re not looking to upend the traditional side of a baseball park. We’re very confident that what makes Camden Yards so special would be able to be retained with whatever we do,” Bader said.

KBO’s Kia Tigers Sign Sean Nolin

By Mark Polishuk | January 8, 2022 at 7:02pm CDT

The KBO League’s Kia Tigers have signed left-hander Sean Nolin to a one-year contract. As per Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, Nolin will earn $600K in guaranteed money ($250K signing bonus, $350K salary) and up to $300K more in incentives.

Nolin had re-signed with the Nationals on a minor league contract back in November, but it appears as though the club released him so Nolin could pursue the opportunity in the Korea Baseball Organization. This isn’t Nolin’s first time playing abroad, as he previously pitched in Japan with the Seibu Lions in 2020, tossing 21 1/3 innings with the NPB club.

The southpaw followed up that brief NPB stint with a return to North American baseball, via a minor league deal with the Nats that eventually led to a big league call-up. With 26 2/3 innings of 4.39 ERA ball with Washington, Nolin banked his first Major League action since way back in 2015, when he pitched for the A’s. Once a notable prospect in the Blue Jays farm system, Nolin pitched 31 1/3 MLB innings from 2013-15 before injuries waylaid his career, including a Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for all of the 2016 and 2017 seasons.

Over 670 1/3 career frames in the minors with six different big league organizations, Nolin has a solid 3.48 ERA and 24.11% strikeout rate. He has worked as both a starter and a reliever, giving the Lions some flexibility in how they might deploy him on their 2022 roster.

Quick Hits: International Signings, Astros, Watson, Nationals

By Mark Polishuk | January 7, 2022 at 1:39pm CDT

Though much of the offseason baseball calendar has been shuttered by the lockout, the next international signing period will still open as scheduled on January 15. This will technically be the 2021-22 signing window, as both this upcoming signing period and last year’s period were pushed back from their normal July 2 date due to the pandemic. Since many of the eligible international players long ago entered into unofficial agreements with their future teams, there isn’t much mystery about the landing spots or even the signing bonuses for these top amateur. As such, Baseball America’s Ben Badler is able to rank the top 50 players in the market by their expected signing bonuses in his preview of the 2021-22 int’l market.

Cuban outfielder Cristian Vaquero leads the way, as the 16-year-old has already been linked to the Nationals. The 16-year-old is a bit of a work in progress at the plate, as Badler notes that Vaquero only somewhat recently became a switch-hitter rather than a pure left-handed hitter, though he does swing well from the left side. As for glovework, Vaquero is “a dynamic center fielder with plus speed, a strong arm and good defensive instincts for his age.”

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

By TC Zencka | January 4, 2022 at 9:09pm CDT

For the first time since before Bryce Harper played for Washington, the Nationals are basement dwellers in the NL East for consecutive seasons. Coming off their title season in 2019, their 26-34 finish in the truncated 2020 was easy to write-off as a result of the pandemic, but after 97 losses in 2021, there’s little doubt left: the Nationals need a reboot.

Guaranteed Contracts

Stephen Strasburg, SP: $175MM through 2026 ($80MM deferred to 2027-2029)
Patrick Corbin, SP: $82.25MM through 2024 ($10MM deferred to 2025)
Will Harris, RP: $8MM in 2022
Cesar Hernandez: $4MM in 2022
Alcides Escobar: $1MM in 2022
2022 commitments: $71.42MM
Total long-term commitments: $270.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Juan Soto – $16.2MM
Josh Bell – $10MM
Joe Ross – $3MM
Erick Fedde – $1.9MM
Victor Robles – $1.7MM
Austin Voth – $1.0MM
Andrew Stevenson – $850K
Tanner Rainey – $800K

Free Agents

Gerardo Parra, Ryan Zimmerman, Jordy Mercer, Alex Avila (retired), Mike Ford (DFA), Ryne Harper (DFA), Wander Suero (DFA)

It’s been barely two years since Howie Kendrick scraped paint off the Astros’ right field foul pole, but the mainstays from that 2019 title team are almost all gone now. The trade deadline deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers was a gut punch for the fanbase and the unofficial end to the first competitive era of Nationals baseball. The Nats got their rings at what now seems like the last possible moment for the Scherzer/Strasburg era.

They weathered the loss of Harper for that one magical season, but since their road warrior heroics at Minute Maid Park, the franchise has been in relative disarray. Losing mainstays like Anthony Rendon and Sean Doolittle changed the complexion of the roster, but no loss will be felt quite like Scherzer and Turner. Scherzer and Turner are two of the more visually stunning talents in the game as well as two of the most productive at their positions. After years of enjoying the brute force of Scherzer’s personality and Turner’s whiplash-inducing speed/power combo, the Nats no longer offer a symphony of baseball talent to the crowds in Southeast DC – they now have a one-man-band.

That said: Juan Soto is a gem. Had the Nationals been anywhere near the playoffs, the 22-year-old might have his first MVP award. Instead, a .313/465/.534 campaign yielded “just” his first All-Star appearance and second silver slugger. He is the runner-up in MVP voting, somehow notching his third top-10 finish in four seasons. He might have the best plate discipline of any hitter since Barry Bonds, and despite his age, he’s now led the Majors in on-base percentage for two years running.

There is no praise too high for Soto. Given a league-wide re-draft, Soto would be a top-5 pick, full stop. The only thing keeping him from being among the highest jersey sales in the league is his market and physical skills that don’t jump out of the screen as it does for the three juniors, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Even the downsides to his game are fairly innocuous: Soto won’t steal 30 bases, and he doesn’t play a premium position. Reach deep and you could say that his power is relatively mortal (.221 ISO this season, 29 home runs). He may not be a power hitter of the strictest order, but he’s on his way. It’s a tool in his toolbelt and an area of potential growth as he ages into his physical prime.

He’s not going to get any faster, but he has shown an ability and willingness to improve in the outfield, even as he shifted from left to right field. It’s certainly possible to imagine a future where Soto spends some time as a designated hitter, but that’s not going to bother Nats’ fans. Where he plays in the field isn’t nearly as pressing as which field he calls home.

With three years until Soto’s free agency, the Nationals have entered the countdown era. It’s easy to imagine the cloud of Soto’s potential departure hanging over this franchise much like Kris Bryant’s free agency timeline dominated narratives for the post-title Cubs. Unfortunately, as a Scott Boras client, Soto isn’t likely to surrender his leverage anytime soon. And it’s hard to ignore the Nats’ recent habit of letting giant stars walk out the door.

The optimists would cite Boras’ purportedly good relationship with Nats’ ownership. Sure, Rendon and Harper both walked, but it was unclear how fully committed the Nats were to bring them back. They committed to Strasburg, and he did return – for better or for worse.

For Soto, it ought to help that he already won a ring in Washington, but GM Mike Rizzo will probably have to convince ownership to make Soto the richest man in the game in order to lock him up long-term. Luckily, the Nats are one of many teams that can’t really be priced out for any one free agent. Whatever the cost, they can pay it if they’re willing.

Regardless, the next three seasons are likely to play out as an extended courtship wherein Rizzo and owner Mark Lerner try to convince Soto that they can build a competitive engine around him that’s worth helming. Ironically, the Nationals are asking the Majors’ walks and OBP leader for patience.

That process began in earnest with the Scherzer/Turner trade. The move wasn’t just about sucking a last bit of value from Scherzer before he departed in free agency. It kickstarted a retooling effort around Soto. That much was evident in their return package.

Josiah Gray stepped directly into Scherzer’s rotation spot, and they need to see him turn into a mid-rotation starter by the end of 2022. The big fish of the deal, however, was Keibert Ruiz, a long-touted catching prospect who may replace Victor Robles as Soto’s primary running mate on the position player side. Ruiz may not be a middle-of-the-order bat, but he makes contact, should hit for power, and if he turns into a first division catcher as expected, he’ll play a large role in managing the pitching staff.

Amazingly, entering his age-23 season, Ruiz will be young for a rookie in his first full season, and still older than Soto. Regardless, after posting a 101 wRC+ in 96 plate appearances, which included a particularly resilient end to the year (112 wRC+ in Sept/Oct), Ruiz will enter 2022 as Washington’s starting catcher. That’s an exciting development for Nats fans and a good first step to the “Courting Soto” era of Nats’ baseball, but it’s not enough to make them a contender.

Side note: Riley Adams, acquired from the Blue Jays for Brad Hand before the Dodgers’ deal, nicely complements Ruiz as the backup catcher, even if he does look as big as a house crouching behind the dish. After years of Matt Wieters underperformance and the steady-but-uninspiring upgrade to Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have their most exciting catchers’ room, perhaps, in franchise history.

Next to Soto in the outfield, Robles is the dream, but Lane Thomas is the reality. Acquired in an under-the-radar deal that sent Jon Lester to the Cardinals, Thomas took off while getting playing time as the Nats’ everyday centerfielder. The 26-year-old hit .270/.364/.489 in 206 plate appearances – easily the most opportunity he’s seen in the bigs. Thomas figures to see more chances in 2022, but what that means for Robles isn’t totally clear. Thomas could return to a fourth outfielder role, but since the Nats don’t currently have a left fielder, it’s difficult to speculate. Robles may have to play himself back into a regular role if he’s able.

As for left field, Yadiel Hernandez posted a solid 98 wRC+, though that number was dragged down by a 79 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter. But he’s also 34-years-old and not probably more than a backup plan for Washington. Andrew Stevenson is the other name on the roster, and he’s proven best as a fourth or fifth option coming off the bench. There’s likely to be another outfielder to join this group once the lockout is resolved. Think Kyle Schwarber again, though probably not Kyle Schwarber again.

Another potential option that they explored in 2021 was using Josh Bell in left field. That’s not an ideal plan for a guy most people think is best-suited as a designated hitter. Bell could very well be dealt before the start of the season, but if not, he’s more likely to be the everyday first baseman and a break-in-case-of-emergency option in the grass.

At shortstop, Alcides Escobar made it back to the Majors for the first time in years, managed to play respectably, and earned a one-year, $1MM deal to stay in Washington. He’s the presumptive starter heading into the year, but the financial commitment isn’t exactly starter’s money. They could surprise everyone by making a play for Carlos Correa, and they could afford it, but there’s been little indication that Rizzo is ready to make that kind of splash this offseason.

That said, there’s not necessarily a shortstop of the future anywhere in the minors until you get to Jackson Cluff or young Brady House. The latter is years away and could end up at third base anyhow. Luis Garcia may be the answer the Nats are ready to settle on. He was a top prospect who was rushed to the Majors in 2020, and there have been growing pains since. He’s a second baseman, but since Cesar Hernandez was brought in on a one-year, $4MM deal, the keystone may be occupied. That could signal a desire for the 21-year-old to get more seasoning time in the minors, and it could mean that they are ready to let Garcia play short. Both options are somewhere in the playbook.

At the hot corner, time is running out for Carter Kieboom. The former top prospect is still just 24, but he’s put up successive seasons of 67 and 68 wRC+, and it’s not as if he’s been a stud with the glove. Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of other options for the Nationals right now. They’ve been tied at times to Bryant, and it’s been suggested that they could be a landing spot for a salary dump like Mike Moustakas, but that’s all speculative for now.

For the first part of the offseason at least, the Nationals took a throw-as-many-options-at-the-wall-as-possible approach. They signed Dee Strange-Gordon, Maikel Franco, and Richard Urena to minor league contracts. They claimed fleet-footed Lucius Fox off waivers from the Orioles. They brought back long-time extra body Adrian Sanchez on a minor league deal. They snagged Andrew Young off waivers from the Diamondbacks. That’s a veteran group that looks very Nationals-y, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one or a pair of them make the roster.

The real problem for the Nationals, however, is the pitching. The rotation is up there as the most uncertain group in all of baseball. Gray is still establishing himself, Strasburg is perennially injured, and Corbin was among the worst rotation arms in baseball last season. If he can figure out his slider, and Stras can get himself back on the mound, there’s some ceiling for this group, but it’s not a real likely potentiality.

Joe Ross (again) flashed some ability to be a mid-range starter, but he (again) finished the year on the injured list. Ross looks to have avoided Tommy John surgery for now, but the rest-and-rehab approach doesn’t always end well. Counting on Ross for quality innings is about as reckless as counting on Strasburg, Corbin, and Gray.

Josh Rogers and Paolo Espino would be in the 6-10 range for most organizations, but they are starters number four and five as of right now. Espino has been surprisingly productive for an older player without much Majors experience, and Rogers brings plenty of character, but not much of a track record. Erick Fedde and Austin Voth have both started without a whole lot of success, but they’re there in the bullpen just in case.

There are, however, some interesting arms on the horizon. Cade Cavalli is the biggest of the bunch, and he’s rising fast enough that he could surprise and make it to the Majors next year. The Nationals need Cavalli to stay healthy and develop into an impact arm. He looked the part in Double-A before getting touched up a bit in seven starts in Triple-A, where he should return to start 2022. Jackson Rutledge, Aldo Ramirez, Andry Lara, and Mason Denaburg are all names worth tracking, but they aren’t near enough to the Majors to make a difference.

For prospect arms capable of logging significant big league innings, look to Seth Romero, Joan Adon, Gerardo Carrillo, or maybe Evan Lee, all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Cole Henry is highly thought of within the organization, but he has just 8 starts in High-A and would have to be added to the 40-man. Carrillo was part of the Scherzer trade, and though he’s not a top prospect, an organization change always sets off alarms for a development jump. There’s no explicit evidence for that jump yet, and he has yet to make a stop in Triple-A.

On the whole, the Nats are beginning to put together an interesting collection of depth arms, but they don’t have the foundational pieces in the Majors. Not in the rotation, and not in the bullpen. They big adieu to Suero, a regular-use, one-pitch setup arm that’s been in the bullpen for years, and they DFA’ed Ryne Harper as well, another veteran option. Will Harris is the most proven arm remaining in the pen, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to prove it since yielding that long ball to Kendrick while with the Astros way back when.

Kyle Finnegan laid claim to the closer’s role, saving 11 games over 68 appearances with a 3.55 ERA/4.62 FIP. He’d be a useful arm in a first division pen, but not someone to build around. Tanner Rainey has the best stuff, but he took a step back last year and has struggled with consistency throughout his career. There’s a world in which Rainey goes big-time in ’22, but as with most of the Nats’ arms, Rainey’s stardom is more dream than reality right now.

Patrick Murphy was an interesting pickup worth watching as a guy who can go short or long, depending on need. The rest of the bullpen is very much a work in progress with Fedde, Voth, and late-developing Andres Machado highest on the pecking order.

In the first part of free agency, the Nationals weren’t very active, and it shows in the state of their roster. They need a left fielder and a DH/first baseman to split time with Bell if the DH arrives in the National League. Zimmerman could return still, and he’d fit nicely on a cheap contract as a right-handed complement for Bell, but he’s not an everyday player anymore.

They could stand upgrades at shortstop and third base, though it’s probably not worth displacing Garcia/Kieboom unless they get a significant star (and that seems unlikely this offseason). Besides, any money they have to spend should really be committed to pitching, though there’s not as much available on the free-agent market.

Long-term, Corbin has “just” three years left on his deal, so there’s light at the end of the tunnel. As of now, they’re still roughly $50MM under their 2021 payroll, and even that $162MM number was their lowest in years. Strasburg’s money is significant, and Boras willing, they’ll plunk down a king’s ransom for Soto at some point. But otherwise, their ledger is mostly empty. Unfortunately, so is their talent pool.

The Nationals are a slow-and-steady franchise, and with the most patient superstar in baseball now the centerpiece of their organization, they’re playing for the future. With just three years left of team control for Soto, that future is fast approaching. The Nats will strike to build a contender around Soto before he leaves. We know that much. We just don’t know the when or the how. To crack those codes, all we need is patience.

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