Mets Sign Jason Bay

The Mets signed left fielder Jason Bay to a four-year, $66MM deal with a vesting option for 2014 that could bring the total to $80MM over five years.  The backloaded deal contains a $17MM option for '14 that vests if Bay reaches 600 plate appearances in 2013 or 500 in both 2012 and 2013.  The deal also has a full no-trade clause.  In additional to a supplemental draft pick, the Red Sox will receive the Mets' second-round pick (currently #53 overall).  Bay turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Red Sox during the summer; SI's Jon Heyman tweets that they eventually lowered their offer to three years.

One week ago, WFAN's Mike Francesa first reported that the Mets would announce a Bay signing pending a physical.  MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone pegged the value of the deal, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post first mentioning the vesting option and Ed Price of AOL FanHouse contributing as well.  The AP added more contract details today.  SNY's Brad Como tweeted yesterday that Bay passed his physical.

The Mets are far from done this offseason, but many of the initial reactions to the Bay signing talked about their stronger need for starting pitching.  The other concern is Bay's defense, which rates poorly under advanced metrics.


154 Responses to Mets Sign Jason Bay Leave a Reply

  1. Good news for the Mets. Now they need a first baseman and some pitching.

    • therambler 5 years ago

      I agree…
      but my question is this…
      Can Bay play First Base?
      I would like to know if there has been anyone in the baseball know hearing that Bay might play 1st Base?
      If he can the Mets may have a lot more options thaan previously thought. If they can sign two starting pitchers it would allow them to trade John Maine for Corey Hart which would make for a much more solid defensive OF. I know this may be outside the box but I was wondering if the Mets who have talked about wanting to focus on speed and defense would take such a massive detour as signing Bay to play LF.

      • Infield Fly 5 years ago

        That is creative thinking, however Bay does not logged any time at 1B since he hit the majors. So the idea to put him at 1B would be another “project,” which takes time (and no guarantees).

        As for Corey Hart, that subject came up a few months ago. I wasn’t sure I’d want to see him in the outfields of Flushing then…and I am not sure now. Anyway, why Hart? Do the Brewers have a “thing” for Maine?

        • therambler 5 years ago

          Yeah, the Brewers offered Hart for Maine back in December. Hart is a solid defender who has some speed. He can be a 20/20 guy and hit .260ish. I think he would be a good fit for the Mets if they can sign 2 pitchers which would make Maine expendable.

          • Infield Fly 5 years ago

            Wow, that’s right – they did! Duh! (but then who remembers everything?!). Well, I could definitely live without Maine (as all Mets fans must each season, and for a good chunk of time) but as it is the team is having a hard enough time finding ONE pitcher, so that’s a very big “if.”Anyway, I like the lines of your thinking because whether it’s realistic or not, I live to see really tight “D” at just about every position!

      • SmackSaw 5 years ago

        Good idea. Bay has all the mobility of a telephone pole.

  2. Good news for the Mets. Now they need a first baseman and some pitching.

  3. This is huge news for the Cardinals. Now that Bay has OFFICIALLY signed, this eliminates the Mets from the Holliday chase. I was afraid that Bay would fail his physical and that they would make some crazy push for Holliday, but I’m glad that that is not the case

    • nymets4581 5 years ago

      because superstars fail physicals all the time, right?

      • Deanezag 5 years ago

        So being a superstar means you cant have a huge lingering injury?

  4. This is huge news for the Cardinals. Now that Bay has OFFICIALLY signed, this eliminates the Mets from the Holliday chase. I was afraid that Bay would fail his physical and that they would make some crazy push for Holliday, but I’m glad that that is not the case

  5. Rootdown 5 years ago

    Sitting on the dock of the Bay…

  6. Rootdown 5 years ago

    Sitting on the dock of the Bay…

  7. Pitching is going to be an issue for them I’d think, but given that park and Santana to eat innings they should be ok. I wouldn’t pay the money for Pineiro, but I think Escobar was a great find.

    • cookmeister 5 years ago

      Escobar isn’t going to start

    • Deanezag 5 years ago

      Escobar is now a reliever, so he doesnt help their rotation situation

    • Infield Fly 5 years ago

      I hear you about Piñeiro. I wouldn’t pay for him either (not without Dave Duncan thrown in). Also, you could be right about Escobar but remember, he’ll be in the bullpen – not the rotation.

      Barring some miraculous transaction, I’d say the Mets’ rotation is in biiiiiig trouble this season. Again. ☹

  8. Pitching is going to be an issue for them I’d think, but given that park and Santana to eat innings they should be ok. I wouldn’t pay the money for Pineiro, but I think Escobar was a great find.

  9. This will end up being a very bad deal. Bay will have a ton of trouble playing (both offensively and defensively) at Citi Field. I pity Carlos Beltran. At his age he is going to have a lot of trouble covering the field that Francoeur and Bay cannot. The Mets love to throw away money on overrated players.

  10. This will end up being a very bad deal. Bay will have a ton of trouble playing (both offensively and defensively) at Citi Field. I pity Carlos Beltran. At his age he is going to have a lot of trouble covering the field that Francoeur and Bay cannot. The Mets love to throw away money on overrated players.

  11. I hope the Bay signing has taken us out of the “race” to sign Molina.

    • nymets4581 5 years ago

      amen

    • Suzysman 5 years ago

      It’s almost silly that the Mets are in on two “races” for players that seemingly have zero interest from the other 29 clubs – yet are still taking forever to actually get the deals done.

  12. Michael Brown 5 years ago

    The Mets need pitching…I still don’t see them threating for the Wild Card much less the division without someone capable behind Johan.

  13. Willy_Wonka 5 years ago

    i don’t think citi would be an issue for bay…

  14. Latrappe 5 years ago

    Question from a reporter: Jason, Is it tough to leave perennial contender for a team who won’t compete for the next couple of years for about the same money?

    • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

      Eh, they can compete next year if they get a reliable #2 or #3 pitcher, realize Murphy is basically a 25th man and NOT a starting first baseman… and fire Minaya.

      • Latrappe 5 years ago

        There’s no # 2-3 starting pitcher outthere and Minaya was napping on the switch when Boston signed Lackey. I agree about Minaya. The Mets need a creative GM with a clear vision. Minaya was bad in Montreal and he’s definitely worst in NY…

        • melonis_rex 5 years ago

          Signing Lackey would’ve been one of the stupidest things Minaya could have done. Stupider than signing Bay, even with that vesting option trigger.

          Platoon Murphy and Pagan in RF, can Francoeur, get a real 1B, get some solid SP help, and banish Ollie to mop up duty.

          • Infield Fly 5 years ago

            I agree about Ollie but there is no way on earth the Mets could put Murphy in RF, unless it’s to mow the lawn. He tried hard but the guy was an absolute blooper reel in LF last year, which is why they pulled him and put him on 1B. Believe me, if he leaves that position it will be to sit on the bench or head back to Binghamton.

        • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

          Sheets makes sense… could potentially pitch like a #2. But for some reason I see Minaya signing Washburn.

          • Sheets makes too much sense for the Mets. If I were Mets fan, I’d take a Louisville Slugger to Minaya if he didn’t come out with Sheets and Pineiro this offseason. You can always move Maine to the pen, where’s better suited, or trade him for Corey Hart, as previously mentioned in this thread.

    • Deanezag 5 years ago

      It wasnt the same money. 65m compared to 80m due to his easily triggered 5th year option. And Mets are not years away from contention, lets be serious- if they add a SP and stay healthy (important to every team) they probably have the best shot at the WC

      • Latrappe 5 years ago

        Not with the Phillies as a road block… Jason Bay will help them but there’s no way the Mets are a better destination then Boston for a player… if he want to win. The Mets will not perform well under Minaya. I’m still surprise that this guy still have his job…

        • Deanezag 5 years ago

          1. I said WC = Wild Card, not NL East.
          2. I didnt say Mets were better destination for the playoffs, i said they were not years away from contention like you stated. And how are the Sox a lock for the playoffs? Yankees and Rays in their own division, Seattle will probably win West, so add Texas into the WC hunt and the Angels too.
          3. “The Mets will not perform well under Minaya.” How many times have we heard this type of statement? Yankees will never win with ARod, CC will never perform in the playoffs, etc.

          • Latrappe 5 years ago

            Well, how many playoffs appearnce the team made under Minaya? One? Since 2000, the Mets were in the playoffs twice. That’s what i call an epic failure for a big market team. When i look at Boston’s lineup versus the Mets lineup, i’m gonna pick the Redsox since they had ( since 2000 ) 7 seasons of 90+ wins. In the same period, the Mets had one season of 90 + wins…

          • Deanezag 5 years ago

            Ok, why are you looking 7 years into the past to determine who is going to make the playoffs this year? Look at the teams and transactions and who got better and who didnt this year.

            Again, I dont care about the whole MInaway thing- it’s the GMs fault that the players choked 2 years in a row? How many times did fans say Arod choked in the playoffs and that he would never get a ring? Exactly, so lets not use “never” “always” “impossible” etc when we talk about situations

          • Latrappe 5 years ago

            The past is a good indicator of the future… If a team manage to win 90 + games, 70% percent of the time, it’s because they have a strong organisation ( scouts, coachs and GM ). Aside the last playoffs, A-Rod was an overpaid choke artist and the stats are there to prove it so…

          • Deanezag 5 years ago

            “The past is a good indicator of the future”
            If you just look at the past and fail to pay attention to trades/signings/etc of other teams then it’s not a good indicator of the future; if you think the Mets will miss the playoffs simply because they’re the Mets then this discussion is a waste of time.

          • epv2 5 years ago

            The past was a good indicator for the Rays success in 2008 right?

          • nymets4581 5 years ago

            Ok

            1. Learn correct grammar. Please.
            2. Who gives a crap about the last 7 years?
            3. Although I agree that he’s not a good GM, how does Minaya have anything to do with the individual performance of his players? Do you think Minaya purposely had Matt Cain hit David Wright in the head? Do you think he purposely made the dugout steps slippery so that Castillo would fall?
            4. Why are you comparing the Mets to the Sox? The original post said the Mets had a legit shot at the WILDCARD, and you go on some rant about how they won’t because the Phillies are too good and then you start talking about Boston. If you’re gonna try to argue a completely valid point, please use relevant information and arguments.

      • mick_lowe 5 years ago

        i’m not sure if that 5th year option is that easy to “trigger”. puddle, i mean bay, will need to get 140 games per season. 1 strained hammy will dl jagoff, er, i mean jason for a month – 25 games – good bye 5th year. for this, he left the sawx? josh could be the greatest player of all time, but the second the mets signed him to a big multi year fa contract he sucked. the only thing the mets are consistant at is making the wrong fa signings. didn’t frank sinatra sing a song about minaya- if you can’t make it in montreal you can make it in new york?

        • Deanezag 5 years ago

          No, it says he will probably have to AVERAGE 140, not play 140 every season.

      • mick_lowe 5 years ago

        i’m not sure if that 5th year option is that easy to “trigger”. puddle, i mean bay, will need to get 140 games per season. 1 strained hammy will dl jagoff, er, i mean jason for a month – 25 games – good bye 5th year. for this, he left the sawx? josh could be the greatest player of all time, but the second the mets signed him to a big multi year fa contract he sucked. the only thing the mets are consistant at is making the wrong fa signings. didn’t frank sinatra sing a song about minaya- if you can’t make it in montreal you can make it in new york?

    • Super_Hero 5 years ago

      Mets are a competitive team. we was in first untill all the injuries. we was in first the year before before Wagner got hurt. Mets are a competitive team. they need a #2 and they can win the NL. Boston on the other hand, lost 30-35hr, 100-120 rbi’s and replaced him with a 37 yr old .230 hitter with 20hr (15 solo hr) and 60-70rbi’s. Lackey is good but if you think Bay is overpaid, wait two yrs for Lackey. Next yr probably 4+ ERA going against Yankee lineup. The Yankees have that division for the next couple yrs easy. Boston only hope is wildcard for the next, at least, 5yrs. and it won’t all be them. especially with Mike Cameron solo hrs.

      • Latrappe 5 years ago

        The Mets might be ” competitive ” but they doesn’t seems to know how to ” win “. I remember Mets’s epic failure when they had that HUGE lead in the NL East only to drop the ” ball ” in the end… Bay will help them but they need pitching, first and foremost. Cameron? He can’t replace Bay and that’s not his role. The Sox have set a tag price on Bay and they had their reasons for doing so. You and I doesn’t know all the ” X ” and ” O ” of this negotiation but i assume that the Sox had a major reason to let go a 100 RBI guy… Lackey? He’s overpaid for sure like any top of the rotation pitcher who hit the market. That’s the way the market work in these days. Lackey is not a ” power ” pitcher like Beckett and i like his chance to be successfull for the first 3 years of his contract. For the rest, we will have to wait and see. You says that Lackey will have a ERA of 4 against the Yankees… Aside Doc Halladay who OWN the Yankees, there’s not a lot of pitchers he will not have an ERA of 4 against an offensive lineup like the Yankees have. Boston’ offense will probably rank between 5-10 at the top of the league and with their improve defense, they should be just fine… Wildcard? There’s nothing wrong to be in the playoffs as a Wildcard. The goal is to get there….

        • Super_Hero 5 years ago

          your original question was is it tuff to leave boston for a team that won’t compete, the mets. then your reply says the Mets can compete but not win. 99% of teams didn’t win. What I’m saying is the Mets can compete. Even when they didn’t make the playoffs, they were not horrible teams until lasy yr due to injuries. you want to go by the hype the media created to say the Mets can’t compete and win.

          I mean Lackey might have an ERA over 4+. not just to the yankees but for the yr. yankees will be one reason for that. I agree some times you have to overpay to get someone like Lackey. that the same reason Mets offered a bit more. what Boston might know about Bay 100rbi and not offer him more money is the same reason Angels didn’t bid hard on Lackey. In fact, they got Kazmir to be his replacement during the season. Lackey numbers have been creeping up, while Bay is in his prime. Wts, I think Boston may be OK but don’t be suprised if next yr, the media is talking about Boston the way they talk about the Mets. Mike Cameron 37yr old defense will not make up for his 37yr old offense.

      • Why are you knocking Mike Cameron based on “solo” home runs? It isn’t his fault if guys couldn’t get on base ahead of him. Boston is MUCH better off with Mike Cameron who makes less money, plays A+ defense, can steal bases AND can hit home runs.

        And the Mets won’t be competitive until they find a replacement for Francoeur AND get a couple of decent starting pitchers.

        • Super_Hero 5 years ago

          wrong. when people were on base his .230avg come to bat. his hr only came when no-one is on base or when we are losing by more then 3 runs. the most he had was 30 in 2004 and only had 76 rbi’s. He defense is better then average but not that much better as you think. His glove reputation makes him better then he is. He can’t get on base to steal. 7SB last yr, 17 the yr before that. yeah he is a great base stealing threat. He is better then Bay, hahaha. there is a reason Mike makes less and is available every offseason.

          • Suzysman 5 years ago

            Last three seasons

            Cameron overall – .245/.334/.452/.786
            Cameron MenOn – .255/.362/.446/.808

            As you can see, he has hit better with men on then the bases empty the last three seasons.

          • Suzysman 5 years ago

            Last three seasons

            Cameron overall – .245/.334/.452/.786
            Cameron MenOn – .255/.362/.446/.808

            As you can see, he has hit better with men on then the bases empty the last three seasons.

          • bjsguess 5 years ago

            Really …

            The last two years Cameron has racked up a UZR/150 rating of 11.3 and 10.0 while playing CF. That’s exceptional. Good for 14th for all OF’ers in baseball last year. And many of those names above him simply shouldn’t be there. Small sample sizes showed artificially high results. It’s not a stretch to suggest that Cameron is a top 10 defensive outfielder. Now, he gets to play in LF, in Boston, with Ellsbury next to him in CF. That outfield defense is going to be crazy good (assuming that 2009 was an aberration for Ellsbury).

          • bjsguess 5 years ago

            Really …

            The last two years Cameron has racked up a UZR/150 rating of 11.3 and 10.0 while playing CF. That’s exceptional. Good for 14th for all OF’ers in baseball last year. And many of those names above him simply shouldn’t be there. Small sample sizes showed artificially high results. It’s not a stretch to suggest that Cameron is a top 10 defensive outfielder. Now, he gets to play in LF, in Boston, with Ellsbury next to him in CF. That outfield defense is going to be crazy good (assuming that 2009 was an aberration for Ellsbury).

  15. SmackSaw 5 years ago

    25 homers 80 RBI max. If he stays healthy.

    • Mercury99 5 years ago

      If he is batting behind Reyes, Wright, and Beltran all season, he will easily drive in over 100 runs

    • nymets4581 5 years ago

      Craig, why do you think that a player who had 119 RBI last season and who has had a significant of RBI’s throughout his career, even with the Pirates, will suddenly just die off hitting behind Reyes, Beltran and Wright? And that’s a high end estimate? You my friend need to check up on your baseball knowledge.

      • Aranathor 5 years ago

        The dimensions of Fenway had a huge impact on Bay’s power numbers (link to boston.redsox.mlb.com), yes batting behind healthy Mets top of the order he will probably knock in 100+ runs, but i don’t see the same HR numbers. And, obviously the keyword is healthy, bit of an unknown with the Mets at the moment. Bay isn’t the last piece of the jigsaw but i doubt it will play out as badly as people expect (at least next year, the 5th year… not so much).

        • nycstateofmind 5 years ago

          u know as soon as the world series was over the Mets had 14-1 to win the world series in Vegas. So prior to any aquisitions the Mets were among the top 6 teams in baseball to bet on to take it all. I’m just saying I’m glad someone realizes how good that team could have been over the last 3 if not for 2 september collapses and decimating injuries. As for Bay and ur stupid link are u factoring in how high you have to hit the ball and how many line drives that green monster turns into doubles.

          • stl_cards16 5 years ago

            14-1? Top 6? I’m calling BS on this one….I’m a betting guy and I wouldn’t take the Mets at 14-1 to win the division.

            I apolagize….just looked it up and they are 20-1 right now…That doesn’t show that Vegas has faith in them though, that shows that Vegas has faith people will bet on them at the number

          • Aranathor 5 years ago

            Stupid… yeah, at least i can locate the ‘y’ key on my keyboard. Anyway, if you looked at the dimensions of Sh… Citifield, compared to Fenway, its bigger, by quite a bit. Plenty of Bay’s HR in Fenway were high popflys, those won’t be doubles in Citi, they will be OUTS.

        • Super_Hero 5 years ago

          he may not hit as many HR but he will hit way more doubles

      • SmackSaw 5 years ago

        Citi field is an abomination. Wright’s production fell precipitously. Reyes will never be baseball healthy again. Beltran is unmotivated. Bay is fragile. He may play 130 games. You need to take off your rose colored glasses and see reality. The Mets got fleeced. It’s like a broken record. Bay is George Foster all over again.

        Citi field is nothing like Fenway park. You’re delusional if you think Bay will drive in 100 runs.

        • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

          Citi Field has only been open 1 year…

        • nymets4581 5 years ago

          Oh I’m sorry that Citi Field somehow contributed to all the injuries. Please don’t tell me that Wright’s decrease in productivity had nothing to do with the millions of injuries to the team. Opponents had no significant trouble hitting at Citi Field. So it was the 9th best pitchers park in baseball. 9th best still should yield plenty of HR. As for your comments about Reyes and Beltran, although I am a Mets fan and I am slightly biased, I try to be honest when I write things like this. So you’re saying that a young guy, 25 or 26 years old I believe, with a hamstring which was surgically repaired, will never be healthy again? And you’re saying that Beltran is “unmotivated”. What the heck are you talking about? Why is he unmotivated?

        • nycstateofmind 5 years ago

          Wright’s production fell off because he didnt have anyone on in front of him enough of the times. He was pressing to hit more home runs and instead ended up hitting the most line drives of his career. Also factor in the fact he didn’t have any protection and it may explain why he didnt get 100 rbi’s. Yet his doubles and avg were still pretty good, his OBP didnt suffer much at .390 with 20 less walks and nearly 60 less at bats than his avg over the last 4 years. We will see what happens but ppl who live in glass houses shouldnt throw stones because ur arguments will have someone like me leaving you behind to pick up the pieces and show u that what u say is an opinion not fact.

        • Willy_Wonka 5 years ago

          you are talking the same citi field were LUIS CASTILLO hit a homer right!!!????

  16. leocal79 5 years ago

    Are the philly fans in denial here the mets will get another start and we’ve loaded up the pen we’ve added much needed hitting and we gave away the division. Philly has one legitamite starter Hamels is a nut job as was Meyers why dont you bring back adam eaton or trade halladay for King Felix. All the phillies did was rotate the same type players or got back worse players than they had last year. Way to go Philly!!!!!

    • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

      I don’t like the Phillies… but I still think they’re going to be a much better team than the Mets next year even if the Mets add a number 2 pitcher. You’re talking trash about the Phils pitching despite the fact after Santana the Mets have Mike Pelfrey’s fabulous 1.51 WHIP and wonderfully dominate 5.22 K/9, the perpetually injured John Maine, Oliver Perez who’s career walk rate makes opponent’s happy to see him, and the option for the 5th spot is basically a list of kids who have yet to have a full year starting in the majors. So yeah… I’d take the ace, the headcase, Blanton, the overrated rookie, and the guy who should be in the geriatrics ward over what the Mets have right now.

      • JerseyShoreShawn 5 years ago

        Mike Francesa of WFAN is teasing more nShawn.

    • Brian 5 years ago

      Sad but true… If you combined the rotations of the Mets and Phillies, Johan would be the 1/2 and MAYBE Pelf is the 5. Ollie, Maine, and ? don’t make the cut.

    • one year of Cliff Lee or 4 Years of Halladay i think i take the 4 years of Halladay. As far Hamels, he has one off year and your ready to burn him at the stake. Now if he comes out and stays the same way than yes you are correct but do not compare a career over 4+ ERA to a pitcher who has a 3.5 ERA. I would take Hamels over the crap that the mets will be pitching behind Johan.

    • Muggi 5 years ago

      Erm…you “loaded up the pen” last year as well if you recall.

      If, as you say, the Phils have “one legitimate starter” (FTFY), where are the Mets? The guy on the Phils that LOST his rotation spot last season (Moyer) put up BETTER NUMBERS than Pelfrey, Maine, or Perez. Maine I suppose you can attribute to injury…but injury is what Maine does best so, the point is still valid.

      The Phillies desperately needed a low-K, high avg guy to replace rally-killer Pedro Feliz. Polanco fit that bill better than Beltre, which is why they got him.

      The Mets will be better, but seriously man…the team still has a massive amount of question marks and will need everything to go PERFECTLY to challenge Philly for the division. Much more likely they’re fighting ATL for 2nd and a Wildcard berth.

  17. nymets4581 5 years ago

    Money in the bank. Sign one more pitcher and the Mets might be legit contenders. My only fear is that they resign Delgado. I know that a lot of people like him but he’s old. I think the Mets need to put Murphy at 1st to start the year and then work Ike Davis into the mix. Either that or maybe sign Adam LaRoche to a 1 or 2 year deal

    • SmackSaw 5 years ago

      LaRoche would be a plus. Murphy doesn’t have the pop to be a legit 1st baseman.

  18. Willy_Wonka 5 years ago

    I saw Delgado playing yesterday and he looks in good shape altough he was dh and goes 4-1, 2 gems prevent him from a hit and a double

    • nymets4581 5 years ago

      eh i still dont trust him

    • aeqr 5 years ago

      I do believe Carlos has still some baseball in him. Yet, seems the AL is a better fit for him now.

      But what if he comes back to Flushing? I’ve been wondering for a while about the Mets options. Is it bizarre to think about this scenario? The Mets need pitching and a way to add stability to the infield. How about trading one of our catcher prospects + other prospects for discounted value Mike Lowell and any of the pitchers in the Red Sox surplus rotation. Lowell at 3MM would be a great value, even for damaged goods. Land Delgado on incentives and you have Delgado on 1st, with Mike taking over when lefties are penciled in. Plus you can give Wright a day or two free to ease him back in to shape.

  19. nycstateofmind 5 years ago

    On July 4th the Mets had played 80 games and were in a tie with Atlanta for 4th place and still only 3 games behind the Phillies. How are the Phillies so incredible and formidable to say they are a lock for anything. By July 4th Delgado had only played 24 games Jose Reyes had played 36, Beltran 61, Perez had made 5 starts and was injured in those starts, Maine made his last start June 6…so please someone please explain how the Phillies are running away with anything.

    • Muggi 5 years ago

      1. July 4th is prior to the Phils having an ace. They have one all year now.
      2. Polanco fits what the Phils need on offense far better than Feliz ever did.
      3. No one has any clue who Reyes will be now…a guy whose entire game is based off speed coming back from a TORN HAMSTRING.
      4. Even if the Mets sign a #2 starter, they’ll still be sending out three guys (Pelfrey, Maine, Perez) who were WORSE than the guy who LOST his rotation spot in Philly.
      5. No one said the Phils will run away with the Divison, but they’re still the most talented team, with the best track record in the Division, coming off two WS runs…why WOULDN’T they be favored to do it again?…and they’re better now than they were last year. The Mets have shown an incredible ability to fold under pressure, have huge question marks at multiple positions, and are counting on multiple guys to get back to best-of-career form.

      Those are a few, but there are plenty more reasons no one thinks the Mets are a big threat for the Division.

    • Muggi 5 years ago

      1. July 4th is prior to the Phils having an ace. They have one all year now.
      2. Polanco fits what the Phils need on offense far better than Feliz ever did.
      3. No one has any clue who Reyes will be now…a guy whose entire game is based off speed coming back from a TORN HAMSTRING.
      4. Even if the Mets sign a #2 starter, they’ll still be sending out three guys (Pelfrey, Maine, Perez) who were WORSE than the guy who LOST his rotation spot in Philly.
      5. No one said the Phils will run away with the Divison, but they’re still the most talented team, with the best track record in the Division, coming off two WS runs…why WOULDN’T they be favored to do it again?…and they’re better now than they were last year. The Mets have shown an incredible ability to fold under pressure, have huge question marks at multiple positions, and are counting on multiple guys to get back to best-of-career form.

      Those are a few, but there are plenty more reasons no one thinks the Mets are a big threat for the Division.

  20. bravos 5 years ago

    Aside from the option year….Isn’t this deal (4 years @65 million) the same offer the Red Socks made earlier in the year? ……anybody know?

  21. paulio_male_gigalo 5 years ago

    If you knew anything, Fenway did absolutely nothing to improve Bay’s numbers. The park doesn’t help a pull hitter who hits no-doubters over the green monster. What actually made his numbers better was the protection he had in the Boston lineup. If he’s surrounded by Reyes, Wright and Beltran, he’ll have no trouble hitting homers to left field in Citi.

    People, please, please stop being parrots. Citi is a middle of the pack park on the pitcher’s park/hitter’s park spectrum. If you did only a tiny bit of research, you’d know that. The reason the Mets didn’t hit many dingers is because Wright was the only home run hitter with no legit protection. He’s a fantastic player, but he’s not going to hold the fort single-handedly. He’s not Pujols.

    • start_wearing_purple 5 years ago

      Umm, you’re basically arguing that Wright had a third of the number of homers last season than in the previous 2 seasons simply because he lacked protection? Yeah, not buying that one. For the record, Miguel Olivo and Billy Butler both had over 20 homers for the awful hitting Royals. Branyan and Lopez had 31 and 25 homers respectively. Garret Jones had 21 in only 314 ABs for the perpetually powerless Pirates…

      I’m not arguing the park killed Wright’s numbers, but you’re kidding yourself if you think it was loss of support.

      • Infield Fly 5 years ago

        I tend to agree. He really seemed to have something going on in his head, but it didn’t necessarily start last season. Hopefully he’ll figure himself out.

      • Suzysman 5 years ago

        It might actually hold a little bit of weight.Both Reyes and Delgado were gone by/around 5/20. Beltran was out of the lineup 6/20 for the long run.Well up to May 20th Wright hit .362/.461/.544/1.004. He hit .316/.387/.429/.816 after the removal of Delgado and Reyes up until Beltran was removed on June 20th. And then .274/.353/.403/.755 the rest of the way without the three of them.

      • Suzysman 5 years ago

        It might actually hold a little bit of weight.Both Reyes and Delgado were gone by/around 5/20. Beltran was out of the lineup 6/20 for the long run.Well up to May 20th Wright hit .362/.461/.544/1.004. He hit .316/.387/.429/.816 after the removal of Delgado and Reyes up until Beltran was removed on June 20th. And then .274/.353/.403/.755 the rest of the way without the three of them.

  22. bravos 5 years ago

    Aside from the option year….Isn’t this deal (4 years @65 million) the same offer the Red Socks made earlier in the year? ……anybody know?

  23. diehardmets 5 years ago

    Interesting thought of resigning Delgado:

    SS Reyes
    2B Castillo
    CF Beltran
    LF Bay
    3B Wright
    1B Delgado
    RF Francouer
    C Molina

    Looks pretty deadly.

    • Deanezag 5 years ago

      If Reyes is healthy, if Beltran is healthy, if Wright can hit more than 10 hrs, if Delgado is recovered, if Bay blocks out all the talk about Citi. And the last 2 guys will be lucky to have OBP over .310; still a pretty good NL lineup, I wouldnt call it deadly though- too many question marks.

  24. RahZid 5 years ago

    Could someone please explain to me how this is a “backloaded” deal? The contract breakdown by the AP has an $8.5M signing bonus to be paid as soon as MLB approves it, plus a $6.5M salary for year 1 (making his total earnings $15M for year 1), and the 3 seasons at $16M (hardly a significant pay increase). This just doesn’t seem like the “heavily backloaded” contract that was being discussed earlier.

  25. “In additional to a supplemental draft pick, the Red Sox will receive the Mets’ second-round pick (currently #53 overall).”

    Ugh..you have the difference between the Red sox and Mets right there. I can almost bet that the Red sox will find a player as good or better than Bay with either their Sup or #53 pick & the Mets will be left hoping that Bay will be the player the Red sox had.

    The Mets will seriously regret this deal when Bay will be 34/35 and making 16/17 mil with his declining bat and horrendous D, but I guess it’s win now for minaya eh?..

    • Deanezag 5 years ago

      “I can almost bet that the Red sox will find a player as good or better than Bay with either their Sup or #53 pick ”

      Come on, that’s a ridiculous statement.

      • Why exactly is that ridiculous? All bay really has is hitting ability which is really nullified by his awful fielding.
        Throw in his knee/shoulder history and you have a recipe for disaster.

        When I said that

        “”I can almost bet that the Red sox will find a player as good or better than Bay with either their Sup or #53 pick “”

        I didn’t mean right away, but with how good the Red sox scout and draft I’d be surprised if they didn’t find a player in the first 2 rounds that can equal or better bay’s overall game.

        • Deanezag 5 years ago

          Yeah his shoulder/knee has limited him to only 151 and 155 games since his knee issue in 2007. His defense did not nullify his offense, he is still a valuable player; not 5 years from now, but you run that risk with every long contract- like signing a 31 year old SP with an elbow injury 2 years in a row to a 5 year deal.

          It is ridiculous that you’re claiming that you can almost guarantee Sox will find an all star player with a career OPS of 895 with their draft pick.

          • I would have 0 problems wagering that that those 2 picks are going to have more usefulness than Bay is through the life of his contract on the Mets.

            “Believe it or not, the Red Sox whiff on draft picks just like everyone else.”
            Never said they didn’t.
            But
            With the amount of picks they have currently this year their system will be stacked.

          • I love how u completely avoided this point…

            “but you run that risk with every long contract- like signing a 31 year old SP with an elbow injury 2 years in a row to a 5 year deal….”

            he was talking about John Lackey…who u had to give up a 1st round draft pick for as well…

        • bjsguess 5 years ago

          That is not a smart statement. Even the best drafting teams would be ecstatic to find a player as good as Jason Bay. Believe it or not, the Red Sox whiff on draft picks just like everyone else.

        • bjsguess 5 years ago

          That is not a smart statement. Even the best drafting teams would be ecstatic to find a player as good as Jason Bay. Believe it or not, the Red Sox whiff on draft picks just like everyone else.

    • caseyB 5 years ago

      When Bay will be 34/35, it will be the tail end of his contract. I seriously doubt anyone will regret that contract if he provides at least 3 out of 4 good years.

      No team that signs someone 30+ to a long multi-year contract can reasonably expect that player to perform well at the tail end. It rarely happens. Even if the player signed is younger, you rarely get him performing well in every year of a multi-year deal.

      So I think you will be sorely disappointed when Jason Bay’s contract turns out to be a good one.

    • caseyB 5 years ago

      When Bay will be 34/35, it will be the tail end of his contract. I seriously doubt anyone will regret that contract if he provides at least 3 out of 4 good years.

      No team that signs someone 30+ to a long multi-year contract can reasonably expect that player to perform well at the tail end. It rarely happens. Even if the player signed is younger, you rarely get him performing well in every year of a multi-year deal.

      So I think you will be sorely disappointed when Jason Bay’s contract turns out to be a good one.

  26. CherryValley 5 years ago

    Reyes
    Castillo
    Beltran
    Wright
    Bay
    Delgado
    Murphy
    Molina or whoever they sign
    Pitcher

    Not a bad lineup when all is said and done….with some pitching they can definitely compete

    • Infield Fly 5 years ago

      My friend, this lineup can’t make sense. You put Delgado in the 6 hole and Murphy right after him, but both play 1B. If you want to represent them both in the same lineup it would have to be in a platoon. Also you forgot Jeff Francoeur in RF…although hey, in a way I can’t blame you! 😉

  27. CherryValley 5 years ago

    Reyes
    Castillo
    Beltran
    Wright
    Bay
    Delgado
    Murphy
    Molina or whoever they sign
    Pitcher

    Not a bad lineup when all is said and done….with some pitching they can definitely compete

  28. Ozzy15 5 years ago

    The mets to do list…..
    1.) Sign Jason Bay (Check)
    2.) Sign Bengie Molina
    3.) Sign Pinero, bedard and sheets and Trade Maine, Ollie and even Pelfery for prospects that we lost in that putz trade
    4.)At least make an attempt to holliday. If not try to aquire Adrian Gonzalez
    5.) Get Washburn so the mets can have this as their starting rotation
    1.) Johan Santana
    2.) Ben Sheets
    3.) Erik Bedard
    4.) Jarrod Washburn
    5.) Joel Piniero

    • AceReno 5 years ago

      That is unrealistic. Bengie signing seems likely, Mets can probably get one of the 4 pitchers you mentioned. If we stretch maaaybe 2. Holiday is definitly not happening nw that we have Bay. Arian Gonzalez: Dont even get started. And Pelfrey and Maine is possible getting traded, but Ollie is stuck in NY for next 2 years.

  29. Ozzy15 5 years ago

    The mets to do list…..
    1.) Sign Jason Bay (Check)
    2.) Sign Bengie Molina
    3.) Sign Pinero, bedard and sheets and Trade Maine, Ollie and even Pelfery for prospects that we lost in that putz trade
    4.)At least make an attempt to holliday. If not try to aquire Adrian Gonzalez
    5.) Get Washburn so the mets can have this as their starting rotation
    1.) Johan Santana
    2.) Ben Sheets
    3.) Erik Bedard
    4.) Jarrod Washburn
    5.) Joel Piniero

  30. RoidsRule 5 years ago

    For a guy that just signed a 60mil+ contract, Jason Bay looked and sounded bummed/disappointed…

    I’m not trying to rile up met fans or anything, but if you watch or listen to jason bay interviews of the past, he usually sounds much happier, lively, etc…

    maybe it’s just relief that has set in now that this FA ordeal is over

  31. nymets4581 5 years ago

    ok, grammar aside, look at points 2-4. those were the main points of my post

  32. Bay’s contract:
    “10:$6.5M, 11:$16M, 12:$16M, 13:$16M, 14:$17M club option ($3M buyout)”

  33. Deanezag 5 years ago

    His .400 BABIP speaks to why he was still able to hit .300

  34. Suzysman 5 years ago

    Pre-Fenway was
    07 -11.4
    08 -14.4
    Fenway was
    09 -11.2

    (2008 in Fenway was too small a sample size to even begin to matter)

    His nosedive was well before he went to Fenway.

  35. Suzysman 5 years ago

    Pre-Fenway was
    07 -11.4
    08 -14.4
    Fenway was
    09 -11.2

    (2008 in Fenway was too small a sample size to even begin to matter)

    His nosedive was well before he went to Fenway.

  36. caseyB 5 years ago

    So does anyone want to bet about what Bay’s UZR will be at Citi in 2010? Or do some just like to engage in an endless debate without fully supporting your arguments?

  37. caseyB 5 years ago

    He lost 10 UZR runs going from Pittsburgh to Fenway — in the middle of the 2008 season! That is a nosedive (steep decline in a SHORT amount of time) that is unprecedented in his career — and probably rare for any other player as well (who doesn’t have an injury). It just doesn’t happen. And sorry, it is not too small a sample size to even matter — especially not when his detractors use 2008 to say his defense is awful. You can’t have it both ways.

  38. caseyB 5 years ago

    He lost 10 UZR runs going from Pittsburgh to Fenway — in the middle of the 2008 season! That is a nosedive (steep decline in a SHORT amount of time) that is unprecedented in his career — and probably rare for any other player as well (who doesn’t have an injury). It just doesn’t happen. And sorry, it is not too small a sample size to even matter — especially not when his detractors use 2008 to say his defense is awful. You can’t have it both ways.

  39. caseyB 5 years ago

    Also, what’s with posting his partial 08 UZR with Pittsburgh and NOT his Fenway UZR the same year? LOL, way to distort the record. Here’s the complete picture:

    05/Bucs/-4.4
    06/Bucs/+3.0
    07/Bucs/-11.4 (knee injury)
    08/Bucs/-14.4
    08/Sox/-24.0
    09/Sox/-11.2

    His fielding UZR at Fenway (combined 08 + 09) is the worst of his career for a stretch of any similar length.

  40. caseyB 5 years ago

    Also, what’s with posting his partial 08 UZR with Pittsburgh and NOT his Fenway UZR the same year? LOL, way to distort the record. Here’s the complete picture:

    05/Bucs/-4.4
    06/Bucs/+3.0
    07/Bucs/-11.4 (knee injury)
    08/Bucs/-14.4
    08/Sox/-24.0
    09/Sox/-11.2

    His fielding UZR at Fenway (combined 08 + 09) is the worst of his career for a stretch of any similar length.

  41. Suzysman 5 years ago

    2008 season921.1 Inning = time with Rats (pretty close to 1K minimum sample size mark)423.1 Inning = time with Red Sox (42% of a 1K minimum size mark)And of those 423 innings playing with the Red Sox?197 inn = On Road226 inn = Actually in BostonYou are complaining about his 1/3rd a season 2008 UZR and the possible influence they had from a measly 226 innings playing in Fenway? You cant be serious, can you? Yes, that is too small a sample size to matter. And when it is discounted we are left solely with07 -11.4 (1237 innings with Pitts)08 -14.4 (921 innings with Pitts)09 -11.2 (1279 innings with Boston)That is consistent.

  42. Suzysman 5 years ago

    2008 season921.1 Inning = time with Rats (pretty close to 1K minimum sample size mark)423.1 Inning = time with Red Sox (42% of a 1K minimum size mark)And of those 423 innings playing with the Red Sox?197 inn = On Road226 inn = Actually in BostonYou are complaining about his 1/3rd a season 2008 UZR and the possible influence they had from a measly 226 innings playing in Fenway? You cant be serious, can you? Yes, that is too small a sample size to matter. And when it is discounted we are left solely with07 -11.4 (1237 innings with Pitts)08 -14.4 (921 innings with Pitts)09 -11.2 (1279 innings with Boston)That is consistent.

  43. Suzysman 5 years ago

    (moving this post as it is difficult to follow the conversation where it ended up)

  44. Suzysman 5 years ago

    (moving this post as it is difficult to follow the conversation where it ended up)

  45. Suzysman 5 years ago

    “Also, what’s with posting his partial 08 UZR with Pittsburgh and NOT his Fenway UZR the same year? LOL, way to distort the record.”Because the time in Fenway makes for 42% of a proper sample size, where in Pitts it is 92% of a proper sample size. Leaving with04 Bucs/-7.2 (in 963 inn) 05/Bucs/-4.4 (in 1185)06/Bucs/+3.0 (in 1273)(surgically repaired knee during offseason)07/Bucs/-11.4 (in1237)08/Bucs/-14.4 (in 921)09/Sox/-11.2 (in 1279)

  46. Suzysman 5 years ago

    “Also, what’s with posting his partial 08 UZR with Pittsburgh and NOT his Fenway UZR the same year? LOL, way to distort the record.”Because the time in Fenway makes for 42% of a proper sample size, where in Pitts it is 92% of a proper sample size. Leaving with04 Bucs/-7.2 (in 963 inn) 05/Bucs/-4.4 (in 1185)06/Bucs/+3.0 (in 1273)(surgically repaired knee during offseason)07/Bucs/-11.4 (in1237)08/Bucs/-14.4 (in 921)09/Sox/-11.2 (in 1279)

  47. bjsguess 5 years ago

    He didn’t post the 08 Fenway numbers because they are statistically irrelevant.

    Look, Bay is a poor fielder. His 07 and majority of 08 numbers (with Pitt) show a sharp decline. His 09 season with Boston illustrates the same thing.

    I don’t know a single person who thinks that Bay is -24 outfielder. However, a projection in Citi between -10 and -15 seems entirely reasonable. Much more reasonable than a bounce back to his 06 season.

  48. bjsguess 5 years ago

    He didn’t post the 08 Fenway numbers because they are statistically irrelevant.

    Look, Bay is a poor fielder. His 07 and majority of 08 numbers (with Pitt) show a sharp decline. His 09 season with Boston illustrates the same thing.

    I don’t know a single person who thinks that Bay is -24 outfielder. However, a projection in Citi between -10 and -15 seems entirely reasonable. Much more reasonable than a bounce back to his 06 season.

  49. caseyB 5 years ago

    Link to a proper study that says his 08 Pittsburgh innings are 92% of a proper sample size for UZR while his 08 Pittsburgh innings for Boston are just 42% of a proper sample size for UZR.

    Moreover, I am NOT just using his 08 Boston innings. Combine his 08 Boston innings PLUS his 09 Boston innings and THEY ARE THE WORST OF HIS CAREER for any similar stretch. That is more than your suggested proper sample size. So until further proof, we have:

    05/Bucs/-4.4
    06/Bucs/+3.0
    07/Bucs/-11.4 (knee injury; 1st year after surgery which often shows a fielding decline)
    08/Bucs/-14.4
    08/Sox/-24.0
    09/Sox/-11.2

  50. caseyB 5 years ago

    Link to a proper study that says his 08 Pittsburgh innings are 92% of a proper sample size for UZR while his 08 Pittsburgh innings for Boston are just 42% of a proper sample size for UZR.

    Moreover, I am NOT just using his 08 Boston innings. Combine his 08 Boston innings PLUS his 09 Boston innings and THEY ARE THE WORST OF HIS CAREER for any similar stretch. That is more than your suggested proper sample size. So until further proof, we have:

    05/Bucs/-4.4
    06/Bucs/+3.0
    07/Bucs/-11.4 (knee injury; 1st year after surgery which often shows a fielding decline)
    08/Bucs/-14.4
    08/Sox/-24.0
    09/Sox/-11.2

  51. caseyB 5 years ago

    More about Bay’s knee:

    “After playing most of the 2007 season with a knee injury … ”

    link to fangraphs.com

    Also, look at his game totals. He missed 17 games in 2007, which for Bay was the most he’s missed since 2004. He was out with knee issues.

  52. caseyB 5 years ago

    Sorry, but you can’t have it both ways. If you post his 08 Pittsburgh UZR, you have to post his 08 Boston UZR, giving you:07 -11.4 (1237 innings with Pitts; year after knee surgery)08 -14.4 (921 innings with Pitts)08 -24.0 (423 innings with Boston)09 -11.2 (1279 innings with Boston)And again, count BOTH his 08 Boston UZR and 09 Boston UZR, and it’s the WORST stretch of a similar size in his career.

  53. caseyB 5 years ago

    Sorry, but you can’t have it both ways. If you post his 08 Pittsburgh UZR, you have to post his 08 Boston UZR, giving you:07 -11.4 (1237 innings with Pitts; year after knee surgery)08 -14.4 (921 innings with Pitts)08 -24.0 (423 innings with Boston)09 -11.2 (1279 innings with Boston)And again, count BOTH his 08 Boston UZR and 09 Boston UZR, and it’s the WORST stretch of a similar size in his career.

  54. caseyB 5 years ago

    1) Why are his 08 Pittsburgh numbers statistically relevant but his 08 Boston ones not? When does relevancy start? When it fits your argument?

    2) Why are his 08 Boston UZR numbers irrelevant for me to use to show how Fenway negatively impacts UZR for leftfielders but they are not irrelevant for those who cite them to bash his defense?

    Does anyone want to make a bet as to what Bay’s 2010 UZR will be in Citi, barring injury?

  55. caseyB 5 years ago

    1) Why are his 08 Pittsburgh numbers statistically relevant but his 08 Boston ones not? When does relevancy start? When it fits your argument?

    2) Why are his 08 Boston UZR numbers irrelevant for me to use to show how Fenway negatively impacts UZR for leftfielders but they are not irrelevant for those who cite them to bash his defense?

    Does anyone want to make a bet as to what Bay’s 2010 UZR will be in Citi, barring injury?

  56. Suzysman 5 years ago

    Dude, you are arguing because you want to believe something, not because believing it makes sense.1 K innings represents 75% of an expected season. (expected season being 150 – hence /150)420 innings represents 31% of a season. 75% of a season worth of PA is 450 – most people think of that as pretty close to a full season, and enough time to level out most deviations. 31% of an expected seasons amount of PA would be 186 – would you try to judge a players ability off 186 PA? Or would you limit its weight because of how susceptible such a small sample size is to flukes?Also, you do realize UZR is Park Adjusted, right? So all this screaming that Boston hurt his UZR is ignoring that the numbers are adjusted so playing in one field wont illogically hurt his numbers. Specifically, Boston has a 0.85 adjustment for LF – all other parks fall between .97 and 1.02. That is such a gigantic adjustment for playing in Boston that it isnt even funny, and it easily accounts for whatever your complaints are about playing there.Again, this is all that really matters at the end of the day04 Bucs/-7.2 (in 963 inn) 05/Bucs/-4.4 (in 1185)06/Bucs/+3.0 (in 1273)(surgically repaired knee during offseason)07/Bucs/-11.4 (in1237)08/Bucs/-14.4 (in 921)09/Sox/-11.2 (in 1279)orAges 25-27, 2004-06 / -2.9 UZR/150(surgically repaired knee in offseason)Ages 28-30, 2007-09 / -12.3 UZR/150Now after the surgically repaired knee, a hurting shoulder, another 1-5 years age tacked on putting him past 30 and going from a 0.85 Park factor to a more neutral environment he will just magically get better and start posting UZR which are similar to his age 25-27 marks? Isnt that just a bit of a stretch?

  57. bjsguess 5 years ago

    Sample size, sample size, sample size.

    If you don’t see a difference between 400 innings and 1000 innings then there isn’t much else to discuss. With something like UZR/150 even a full year is often viewed as insufficient to get the total picture of how a player is performing. 400 innings is simply too small of a sample size. If you do a little digging around you will find that this isn’t my opinion. The people that created the metric will tell you that you really need a couple years of consistent data to draw meaningful conclusions.

    That said, we will just have to wait and see. All I can say is that the stats and the overwhelming majority of analysts disagree with your position. The consensus is that Bay will be a defensive liability.

    I still like Bay and think that he will do just fine offensively. It’s his defense that I really worry about.

  58. Suzysman 5 years ago

    do you realize WHEN he missed those 17 games in 2007? After he re-aggravated the injury on September 8th. He started only 5 of the final 20 games for the Pirates, and pinch hit in 2 others.2007 / First 142 Games for Pirates = Bay starts 137 of themThat is 1 day off every 28.4 games on average. Now if he was really being bothered so much by the surgery, dont you think he might have taken more then 1 game a month off on average? I mean, he was playing for a Pirates team that went 68-94 – what was the point of playing almost every single game if he was hurt?

  59. bjsguess 5 years ago

    I think you meant to reply to caseyB?

  60. caseyB 5 years ago

    No, dude. I am arguing because I believe you are wrong.

    Why are you talking about PA? We are talking about UZR and what is considered a sufficient sample size for UZR SPECIFICALLY in order to use ir. Find me a specific study that supports what you originally said — that “08 Pittsburgh innings are 92% of a proper sample size for UZR while his 08 innings for Boston are just 42% of a proper sample size for UZR.”

    What you just posted does not support that.

    So, we’re left with this complete picture:

    05/Bucs/-4.4
    06/Bucs/+3.0
    07/Bucs/-11.4 (knee injury; 1st year after surgery which often shows a fielding decline)
    08/Bucs/-14.4
    08/Sox/-24.0
    09/Sox/-11.2

    There’s still the steep nosedive in the middle of the 2008 season … and when combining his total Sox UZR numbers (MORE than an entire season) it still represents the worst stretch in his career for UZR.

    As Keith Law alluded to and the Mets own analysts believe, Fenway had a detrimental impact on his UZR. Barring injury, at Citi it will return to numbers more closely matching what he did at PNC.

  61. Suzysman 5 years ago

    yeah, obviously, lol

    I would edit it, but you replied so I cant :(

  62. caseyB 5 years ago

    1) The difference for 08 is between 421 and 921. Not 400 and 1000. Sure there is a difference but it’s small and insignificant. Neither is considered an ideal sample size for UZR and both have a high degree of error. The point is, if you use 921, then one can use 421.

    2) You are ignoring the fact that I am also using 1700 innings representing Bay’s total time in Boston for 08 plus 09. That represents the worst UZR stretch of his entire career.

    “The consensus is that Bay will be a defensive liability.”

    Who is saying otherwise? The debate here is how much. I suggest you read my comments again.

  63. caseyB 5 years ago

    BTW, do you know that fangraphs says Teixeira is a “defensive liability” for 4 out of the last 5 years?

    That illustrates my point in my previous reply to you.

  64. caseyB 5 years ago

    “Now if he was really being bothered so much by the surgery, dont you think he might have taken more then 1 game a month off on average?”

    Actually no. He has a rep for playing hurt and being a gamer. That’s why I think his UZR suffered so much in ’07. Instead of going on the DL for long stretches of time to fully heal, he played hurt. Bottom line is that he took off more days in ’07 than in any other year since ’04.

  65. Suzysman 5 years ago

    “Why are you talking about PA? We are talking about UZR and what is considered a sufficient sample size for UZR SPECIFICALLY in order to use ir”I gave PA so maybe you could get it through to your think skull what type of microscopic sample size you are arguing for here. Your entire point is based off a horrible looking extremely small sample size. You are complaining about something that is statisticly rather worthless.”There’s still the steep nosedive in the middle of the 2008 season”1) it was at the 1/3 mark of the 08 season (not half way)2) it instantly went awayThats what you get when you complain about microscopic amounts of sample sizes!Again04 Bucs/-7.2 (in 963 inn) 05/Bucs/-4.4 (in 1185)06/Bucs/+3.0 (in 1273)(surgically repaired knee during offseason)07/Bucs/-11.4 (in1237)08/Bucs/-14.4 (in 921)09/Sox/-11.2 (in 1279)orAges 25-27, 2004-06 / -2.9 UZR/150(surgically repaired knee in offseason)Ages 28-30, 2007-09 / -12.3 UZR/150Complain about the 225 innings he actually played in Boston in 2008 all you want, but that is all that matters.

  66. caseyB 5 years ago

    “Your entire point is based off a horrible looking extremely small sample size. You are complaining about something that is statisticly rather worthless.”

    Your partial 08 pittsburgh size is just as “statistically rather worthless” as the 08 Boston size. You do know that neither is great for UZR, don’t you? Further, reliability in sample size depends on the type of stat one is studying. That’s why your bringing up PA makes no sense.

    Further, I am also using Bay’s total Boston UZR which represents **1700 innings** and which is the WORST UZR STRETCH of his entire career. You simply can’t discount that.

    Again, your argument is a joke if you think you can use 2/3’s of a season for UZR but not 1/3. Again, neither is reliable, but if you use one, there is no reason why one can’t use the other.

  67. caseyB 5 years ago

    So, again, this is the TOTAL picture we have:

    So, we’re left with this complete picture:

    05/Bucs/-4.4
    06/Bucs/+3.0
    07/Bucs/-11.4 (knee injury; 1st year after surgery which often shows a fielding decline)
    08/Bucs/-14.4
    08/Sox/-24.0
    09/Sox/-11.2

  68. caseyB 5 years ago

    “WTF are you talking about? 1K is an acceptable sample size mark when considering UZR. 420 IS NOT.”WTF are YOU talking about? 920 IP is NOT significantly more viable a sample size than 420 IP which are the amounts we are talking about. Both have significant room for error. For UZR, actually, multi-year stats are the most reliable and the most accepted. ——————————-“”Further, I am also using Bay’s total Boston UZR which represents “Why? That makes no difference.”—————————Sure it makes a difference. That’s 1-1/3 years of data. That’s the WORST stretch of his career for UZR vs. any other similar stretch in his career. And the nosedive takes place in 2008 when his UZR drops 10 runs in the SAME season, with no reported injury to account for it. Definitely a Fenway effect.So this is what we have for that bad Boston stretch …08/BOS/-24.0 UZR09/BOS/-11.2 UZRAgain, this 1-1/3 year stretch is the WORST UZR stretch of his entire career. And you don’t like it. So you ignore it. And look at everything else, trying to leave out and skew the numbers so they fit your opinion. ——————————————————-“07 Pitt, 08 Pitt and 09 Bos are the only things important here and those all match up perfectly with eachother!”
    Well, duh, of course they match. That’s what happens when you cherry pick the data!! LOL.YOU CAN’T CHERRY PICK YOUR STATS!!!!! That’s the stupidest thing. You either take everything or nothing. Taking everything into account, the stats support my position.
    ——————————————————So to recap, here’s the REAL nosedive which is skewing his UZR:08/Bucs/-14.408/Boston/-24.0Continuing to ignore the facts is just total ignorance. But I don’t think you’re really ignorant. I think you know you’re wrong but just won’t admit it. One more thing. Grow up and stop calling people names. I’m sure that’s against the site’s policy.

  69. caseyB 5 years ago

    dupe post

  70. Suzysman 5 years ago

    (previous posts now here to make for easier conversation following)Wow, you’re just out there…”Bottom line is that he took off more days in ’07 than in any other year since ’04.”No, no he didnt – he “took off” only 3.5% of the time. He was “forced out” of the final few games.”920 IP is NOT significantly more viable a sample size than 420 IP which are the amounts we are talking about.”Fine, whatever you say. But to humor you, then use it – you end up with a -13.6 Three year average. With that 3 year average we have this as far as verification of it’s significance-13.6 is within 2.5 points of:2007 full season (1200+ innings)2008 pre-trade (900 inning sample size)2009 full season (1200+ innings)So there, I guess you proved Bay is a -13.6 UZR/150 player.”YOU CAN’T CHERRY PICK YOUR STATS!!!!!”Says the man complaining that Boston somehow ruined his fielding by pointing to the 225 innings he played there in 2008 after the trade and saying the it produced -24 in 420 innings that is somehow proof the -11.4, -14.4 and -11.2 surrounding it should be ignored…”So to recap, here’s the REAL nosedive which is skewing his UZR:08/Bucs/-14.408/Boston/-24.0″Lol!!! Ok, fine, the -24 was the nosedive and it instantly went away and instead he did/will go back to the -11 to -14 he posted in three 900+ inning sample sizes around it. Feel better now?”Continuing to ignore the facts is just total ignorance.”Like the fact you continually ignore the fact that UZR is park adjusted???Ok, let’s ignore no facts then.-7.2 – 04 park adjusted UZR in 963 inn (25 Years old)-4.4 – 05 park adjusted UZR in 1185 (26 YO)+3.0 – 06 park adjusted UZR in 1273 (27 YO)(surgically repaired knee during offseason)-11.4 – 07 park adjusted UZR in 1237 (28 YO)-14.4 – 08 park adjusted UZR in 921 pre-trade (29 YO)-24.0 – 08 park adjusted UZR in 420 pre-trade (29 YO)-11.2 – 09 park adjusted UZR in in 1279 (30 YO)The facts point to a trend of -11 to -14 after knee surgery, and that a now 31 year old should not be expected to produce numbers consistent with his ability back 4 to 6 years ago when he was 25-27. The facts also show that the extremely small sample size of innings played after the trade seem to include a deviation that was quickly corrected the following season to once again give 09 production to match his baseline provided in 2 large sample sizes leading up to that point – giving 3 large sample sizes of almost identical production overall.But it’s cool if you want to believe Bay will play like he did when he was 25-27 years old before the major reconstructive surgery on his knee. Some people actually believe in Santa Clause too! Point is, we are all free to believe whatever we want, so just have fun with that man…

  71. Suzysman 5 years ago

    (previous posts now here to make for easier conversation following)Wow, you’re just out there…”Bottom line is that he took off more days in ’07 than in any other year since ’04.”No, no he didnt – he “took off” only 3.5% of the time. He was “forced out” of the final few games.”920 IP is NOT significantly more viable a sample size than 420 IP which are the amounts we are talking about.”Fine, whatever you say. But to humor you, then use it – you end up with a -13.6 Three year average. With that 3 year average we have this as far as verification of it’s significance-13.6 is within 2.5 points of:2007 full season (1200+ innings)2008 pre-trade (900 inning sample size)2009 full season (1200+ innings)So there, I guess you proved Bay is a -13.6 UZR/150 player.”YOU CAN’T CHERRY PICK YOUR STATS!!!!!”Says the man complaining that Boston somehow ruined his fielding by pointing to the 225 innings he played there in 2008 after the trade and saying the it produced -24 in 420 innings that is somehow proof the -11.4, -14.4 and -11.2 surrounding it should be ignored…”So to recap, here’s the REAL nosedive which is skewing his UZR:08/Bucs/-14.408/Boston/-24.0″Lol!!! Ok, fine, the -24 was the nosedive and it instantly went away and instead he did/will go back to the -11 to -14 he posted in three 900+ inning sample sizes around it. Feel better now?”Continuing to ignore the facts is just total ignorance.”Like the fact you continually ignore the fact that UZR is park adjusted???Ok, let’s ignore no facts then.-7.2 – 04 park adjusted UZR in 963 inn (25 Years old)-4.4 – 05 park adjusted UZR in 1185 (26 YO)+3.0 – 06 park adjusted UZR in 1273 (27 YO)(surgically repaired knee during offseason)-11.4 – 07 park adjusted UZR in 1237 (28 YO)-14.4 – 08 park adjusted UZR in 921 pre-trade (29 YO)-24.0 – 08 park adjusted UZR in 420 pre-trade (29 YO)-11.2 – 09 park adjusted UZR in in 1279 (30 YO)The facts point to a trend of -11 to -14 after knee surgery, and that a now 31 year old should not be expected to produce numbers consistent with his ability back 4 to 6 years ago when he was 25-27. The facts also show that the extremely small sample size of innings played after the trade seem to include a deviation that was quickly corrected the following season to once again give 09 production to match his baseline provided in 2 large sample sizes leading up to that point – giving 3 large sample sizes of almost identical production overall.But it’s cool if you want to believe Bay will play like he did when he was 25-27 years old before the major reconstructive surgery on his knee. Some people actually believe in Santa Clause too! Point is, we are all free to believe whatever we want, so just have fun with that man…

  72. Suzysman 5 years ago

    Okay, this ends this once and for all. We can use this info to get a rough idea of fielding valueJason Bay’s 2008 post-trade fielding statsOn road23 Games194.1 Innings34 PO (91 balls hit his way)2 assists1.67 RF/9, 1.57 RF/GAt Home in Fenway26 Games229 Innings42 PO (117 balls hit his way)3 assists1.77 RF/9, 1.73 RF/GThe surface stats show someone who was much better in Fenway then on the Road.Next we add the Park factor in(this was done for each out per the park it was recorded at as that is the only way to know the true road park factor)If we did the park factors for RF/9 and RF/G then we get this1.69 RF/9 Road – 1.58 RF/G Road2.06 RF/9 Home – 2.02 RF/G HomeIf we did Park Factors for outs per inning34.4 Outs over 194.1 Innings Road (.177 Outs per inning Road)- spread that over 1300 innings and it is 230.1 outs49.4 Outs over 229 Innings Home (.216 Outs per inning Home)- spread that over 1300 innings and it is 280.8 outsa (per 1300inn) 50.7 Out advantage in Boston over his stats on the road post trade. Now I have no way of knowing how many of the balls were easily in his specific zone so I cant make actual UZR rankings. But his numbers are quite a bit better AT Fenway then they are on the road in the AL after the trade, and once they are given a park factor that difference gets extreme (probably why there is seemingly a big drop in his UZR at that point – the numbers on the road seem to have hurt his UZR that much). There is no doubt Bay had better Range in Fenway then he did on the road in the AL in 2008. And if his fielding stats were better in Fenway after the trade, then there would be absolutely no basis for an argument claiming Fenway was responsible for the 2008 fielding drop. So this “Fenway made his D look bad” argument would be completely void.But we knew it had no basis anyway since everything is park adjusted.

  73. Suzysman 5 years ago

    Okay, this ends this once and for all. We can use this info to get a rough idea of fielding valueJason Bay’s 2008 post-trade fielding statsOn road23 Games194.1 Innings34 PO (91 balls hit his way)2 assists1.67 RF/9, 1.57 RF/GAt Home in Fenway26 Games229 Innings42 PO (117 balls hit his way)3 assists1.77 RF/9, 1.73 RF/GThe surface stats show someone who was much better in Fenway then on the Road.Next we add the Park factor in(this was done for each out per the park it was recorded at as that is the only way to know the true road park factor)If we did the park factors for RF/9 and RF/G then we get this1.69 RF/9 Road – 1.58 RF/G Road2.06 RF/9 Home – 2.02 RF/G HomeIf we did Park Factors for outs per inning34.4 Outs over 194.1 Innings Road (.177 Outs per inning Road)- spread that over 1300 innings and it is 230.1 outs49.4 Outs over 229 Innings Home (.216 Outs per inning Home)- spread that over 1300 innings and it is 280.8 outsa (per 1300inn) 50.7 Out advantage in Boston over his stats on the road post trade. Now I have no way of knowing how many of the balls were easily in his specific zone so I cant make actual UZR rankings. But his numbers are quite a bit better AT Fenway then they are on the road in the AL after the trade, and once they are given a park factor that difference gets extreme (probably why there is seemingly a big drop in his UZR at that point – the numbers on the road seem to have hurt his UZR that much). There is no doubt Bay had better Range in Fenway then he did on the road in the AL in 2008. And if his fielding stats were better in Fenway after the trade, then there would be absolutely no basis for an argument claiming Fenway was responsible for the 2008 fielding drop. So this “Fenway made his D look bad” argument would be completely void.But we knew it had no basis anyway since everything is park adjusted.

  74. caseyB 5 years ago

    LOL, are you outta your mind? We’re talking specifically UZR here (and specifically the UZR at fangraphs). Not RF or any other fielding metric. The whole point being that Fenway artificially impacted Bay’s UZR in a negative way (because of the way UZR is calculated). In fact if you look at other fielding metrics like total fielding runs, Bay was **ABOVE LEAGUE AVERAGE** this year (+7.9), and better than Holliday (-1.7), and even better than Holliday throughout his career, which is the TOTAL OPPOSITE of what UZR says. The problem is that UZR and UZR/150 have become the most used fielding metric, including at this site. And I’m not going to knock it as a metric because I actually think it is a very good one. But the way it calculates fielding (vs. some other systems like RF) can penalize a LF at Fenway like Bay. And that’s exactly what Bay’s UZR numbers say – unless one believes he actually became a worse leftfielder after he left Pittsburgh and went to Boston.

    The whole point being Bay is not as bad a fielder as his recent UZR and UZR/150 say he is. UZR + Fenway made it look bad.

  75. caseyB 5 years ago

    Talking about being out there? LOL. Try to stay on track.“No, no he didnt – he “took off” only 3.5% of the time. He was “forced out” of the final few games.”Yes, he did. It’s a fact that he missed the most games that year since 2004 DUE TO INJURY. Which, as I referenced with a link, was bothering him throughout MOST OF THE 2007 season. I posted a link to prove it. Now you prove that his knee didn’t bother him throughout most of 2007.“But to humor you, then use it – you end up with a -13.6 Three year average.”LOL, way to get off track again. The issue isn’t 3-years. The issue is the 1-1/3 year period he played in Fenway which is the WORST such period of his career for UZR. And which artificially drags down his entire career UZR and recent (3- or 4-year) UZR. For that period we have:-24.0/423 inn/2008-11.2/1279 inn/2009This comes out to about a -15 UZR/150 which is the worst for a 1700+ inning period of his career.“”YOU CAN’T CHERRY PICK YOUR STATS!!!!!”Says the man complaining that Boston somehow ruined his fielding by pointing to the 225 innings he played there in 2008 after the trade and saying the it produced -24 in 420 innings that is somehow proof the -11.4, -14.4 and -11.2 surrounding it should be ignored…”LOL, there you go once again, making things up and getting off track. I suggest you learn how to read. I have never said we should ignore ANY of Bay’s numbers UNLIKE YOU who wants to throw out the third of the season in Boston in ’08 when his UZR/150 nosedived to -24. Since you don’t seem to understand the definition of cherry picking, I’ll explain. It’s using some periods of time while throwing out others. This is what you have attempted to do repeatedly throughout this entire thread. I have been advocating using ALL of Bay’s numbers which clearly show the period of time at Fenway to be the WORST of his career. Anyone with an open mind can see this. And this would support what I and others like Keith Law and the Mets’ stats guys say – that Fenway has a way of negatively impacting zone rating type stats for some leftfielders. “ Ok, fine, the -24 was the nosedive and it instantly went away and instead he did/will go back to the -11 to -14 he posted in three 900+ inning sample sizes around it. Feel better now?”LOL, you don’t get it, do you? If his ’08 Boston UZR was negatively impacted by Fenway as I contend, it’s only logical to assume that his ’09 UZR was also impacted – regardless of the actual number it ended up to be. Moreover, as previously mentioned, his ’07 UZR was most likely negatively impacted by a bum knee. (No, I’m not ignoring the ’07 numbers, just providing a logical explanation for the dip between 06 and 07. Unless you account for these things, you are looking at an incomplete picture, which is what you’re doing.)“Like the fact you continually ignore the fact that UZR is park adjusted???”Provide a link to show that UZR/150 stats at fangraphs are park adjusted and which EXPLAINS exactly how fangraphs applies park adjustments to its UZR/150 stats. Park adjustments have limited value and cannot always fully account for the impact a park will have on a particular player during a particular time frame. “The facts point to a trend of -11 to -14 after knee surgery.”Congrats! At least you now seem to acknowledge and agree with me that knee surgery was a likely cause of his dip in UZR after the 2006 season. What you fail to realize is that a move to Fenway might have also made his UZR stats even worse … and that if his knee is fully healed, which could take more than year, then his fielding is likely to improve. However, because Fenway can artificially deflate UZR/150 numbers, any actual improvement might be impossible to discern from UZR/150. “..and that a now 31 year old should not be expected to produce numbers consistent with his ability back 4 to 6 years ago when he was 25-27.” A 31 year old could ABSOLUTELY be expected to produce UZR numbers MUCH MORE consistent with his ability at 25-27 when he was healthy and playing in a traditional park than with succeeding years that involved recovery from knee surgery and which were partially played in a park that tends to depress UZR numbers for leftfielders. “But it’s cool if you want to believe Bay will play like he did when he was 25-27 years old before the major reconstructive surgery on his knee. Some people actually believe in Santa Clause too!”Hey, it’s cool if you want to believe that Bay is the fielder the UZR numbers he put at Fenway say he is. Some people actually believe in the tooth fairy too. And being a Cubs fan, you probably are used to such fanciful thinking!But why not just put your money where your mouth is? I asked numerous times for you to give a projection of Bay’s 2010 UZR/150 for Citi Field. If you’re so sure he now is the fielder YOU say he is, then that should be easy, right? C’mon, what are you afraid of?For the record, I’m going to say he’ll have a UZR/150 much closer to his Pittsburgh years than his Fenway-depressed UZR/150 numbers. I’ll say roughly -4.0. (Unless he’s injured, of course.)Also, for the record, he’ll have about 25-27 HRs and 100 to 105 RBIs with an OPS of roughly .900. Nothing will be resolved here. Only time will tell. But I believe I am right — in line with the thinking of Keith Law and the Mets’ own stats guys — and the 2010 season will prove that.

  76. “do you know that fangraphs says Teixeira is a “defensive liability” for 4 out of the last 5 years? ”

    under-rated reply

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