Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.
The projections:
Angels (10)
- Griffin Canning (4.075): $2.5MM
- Brett Phillips (4.060): $1.4MM
- Luis Rengifo (4.043): $4.2MM
- Jaime Barria (4.035): $1.5MM
- Chad Wallach (4.018): $1.1MM
- Taylor Ward (3.164): $4.5MM
- Patrick Sandoval (3.149): $5MM
- Jared Walsh (3.114): $2.7MM
- Jose Suarez (3.084): $1.1MM
- Jose Quijada (3.046): $1MM
Astros (7)
- Framber Valdez (4.163): $12.1MM
- Kyle Tucker (4.079): $12.6MM
- Jose Urquidy (4.049): $3.5MM
- Mauricio Dubon (3.162): $3.1MM
- Luis Garcia (3.083): $2.1MM
- Bryan Abreu (3.022): $2MM
- Chas McCormick (3.000): $3.1MM
Athletics (6)
- Austin Pruitt (5.034): $1.2MM
- Sean Newcomb (4.113): $1MM
- Paul Blackburn (4.018): $3.2MM
- Carlos Perez (3.167): $1.2MM
- Seth Brown (3.104): $2.4MM
- James Kaprielian (2.167): $1.5MM
Blue Jays (13)
- Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM
- Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM
- Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM
- Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM
- Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM
- Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM
- Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM
- Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM
- Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM
- Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM
- Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM
- Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K
Braves (13)
- A.J. Minter (5.154): $6.5MM
- Max Fried (5.148): $14.4MM
- Yonny Chirinos (5.114): $2MM
- Michael Soroka (5.009): $3MM
- Nick Anderson (4.153): $1.6MM
- Nicky Lopez (4.139): $3.9MM
- Kolby Allard (3.162): $1MM
- Ben Heller (3.102): $900K
- Sam Hilliard (3.094): $1.1MM
- Michael Tonkin (3.074): $1MM
- Kyle Wright (3.062): $1.4MM
- Andrew Velazquez (3.033): $740K
- Huascar Ynoa (3.011): $1MM
Brewers (12)
- Brandon Woodruff (5.161): $11.6MM
- Willy Adames (5.105): $12.4MM
- Corbin Burnes (5.049): $15.1MM
- Adrian Houser (5.010): $5.6MM
- Rowdy Tellez (5.004): $5.9MM
- Eric Lauer (4.111): $5.2MM
- Hoby Milner (4.068): $1.7MM
- Devin Williams (4.056): $6.5MM
- Tyrone Taylor (3.093): $1.7MM
- Bryse Wilson (3.036): $1.3MM
- Joel Payamps (3.027): $1.7MM
- Abraham Toro (3.011): $1.3MM
Cardinals (10)
- Jacob Barnes (5.112): $1MM
- Tyler O’Neill (5.059): $5.5MM
- Dakota Hudson (4.156): $3.7MM
- Tommy Edman (4.114): $6.5MM
- Ryan Helsley (4.105): $3MM
- Andrew Knizner (4.021): $2MM
- Dylan Carlson (3.104): $1.8MM
- Jake Woodford (3.048): $1.1MM
- JoJo Romero (3.045): $900K
- John King (2.148): $1.0MM
Cubs (9)
- Codi Heuer (4.000): $785K
- Nick Madrigal (3.163): $1.9MM
- Mike Tauchman (3.143): $2MM
- Nick Burdi (3.140): $800K
- Julian Merryweather (3.109): $1.3MM
- Patrick Wisdom (3.058): $2.6MM
- Adbert Alzolay (3.050): $2.5MM
- Mark Leiter Jr. (3.031): $1.6MM
- Justin Steele (2.143): $4.1MM
Diamondbacks (8)
- Christian Walker (5.124): $12.7MM
- Paul Sewald (5.072): $7.3MM
- Austin Adams (4.150): $1.1MM
- Zac Gallen (4.100): $10.9MM
- Ryan Thompson (3.095): $1.3MM
- Kyle Lewis (3.067): $1.61MM
- Kevin Ginkel (3.032): $1.4MM
- Joe Mantiply (3.029): $1MM
Dodgers (13)
- Walker Buehler (5.168): $8.03MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (5.117): $3.8MM
- Caleb Ferguson (5.093): $2.3MM
- Yency Almonte (4.143): $1.9MM
- Will Smith (4.090): $9.3MM
- Dustin May (4.059): $2.4MM
- Brusdar Graterol (3.167): $2.5MM
- Wander Suero (3.144): $900K
- Evan Phillips (3.136): $3.4MM
- Gavin Lux (3.114): $1.1MM
- J.P. Feyereisen (3.108): $1MM
- Alex Vesia (3.078): $1.2MM
- Victor Gonzalez (3.058): $1MM
Giants (6)
- Austin Slater (5.147): $3.6MM
- J.D. Davis (5.137): $6.8MM
- Mike Yastrzemski (4.128): $7.3MM
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (4.035): $3.3MM
- Tyler Rogers (4.034): $3.2MM
- Thairo Estrada (3.169): $4.8MM
Guardians (10)
- Shane Bieber (5.097): $12.2MM
- Cam Gallagher (5.073): $1.3MM
- Ramon Laureano (4.165): $4.7MM
- Cal Quantrill (4.132): $6.6MM
- Josh Naylor (4.127): $7.2MM
- James Karinchak (3.099): $1.9MM
- Triston McKenzie (3.074): $1.8MM
- Enyel De Los Santos (3.015): $1.2MM
- Sam Hentges (2.157): $1.1MM
- Nick Sandlin (2.157): $1.1MM
Marlins (13)
- Jacob Stallings (5.149): $3.6MM
- Tanner Scott (5.059): $5.8MM
- Garrett Hampson (5.010): $1.3MM
- Luis Arraez (4.121): $10.8MM
- JT Chargois (4.101): $1.2MM
- Jesus Luzardo (3.165): $5.9MM
- A.J. Puk (3.124): $1.8MM
- Steven Okert (3.109): $1.2MM
- Trevor Rogers (3.094): $1.5MM
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3.075): $2.8MM
- Jonathan Davis (3.035): $800K
- Anthony Bender (2.153): $900K
- Jesus Sanchez (2.118): $2MM
Mariners (8)
- Ty France (4.089): $7.2MM
- Luis Torrens (3.155): $1.3MM
- Trent Thornton (3.148): $1.4MM
- Josh Rojas (3.126): $3.5MM
- Sam Haggerty (3.044): $800K
- Justin Topa (3.044): $1.5MM
- Mike Ford (3.008): $1.5MM
- Logan Gilbert (2.144): $4.9MM
Mets (17)
- Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM
- Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
- Elieser Hernandez (5.044): $1.6MM
- Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
- Pete Alonso (5.000): $22MM
- Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
- Tim Locastro (4.122): $1.6MM
- Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
- Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
- Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
- John Curtiss (3.137): $1MM
- Michael Perez (3.095): $800K
- David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
- Danny Mendick (3.058): $1.1MM
- Rafael Ortega (3.035): $1.4MM
- DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
- Phil Bickford (2.134): $1.2MM
Nationals (8)
- Dominic Smith (5.081): $4.3MM
- Victor Robles (5.033): $2.7MM
- Tanner Rainey (4.127): $1.5MM
- Michael Chavis (4.089): $1.2MM
- Hunter Harvey (4.047): $2.2MM
- Lane Thomas (4.014): $7MM
- Kyle Finnegan (4.000): $5.1MM
- Luis Garcia (2.142): $2.4MM
Orioles (16)
- Anthony Santander (5.162): $12.7MM
- Danny Coulombe (5.008): $2.2MM
- John Means (5.007): $5.93MM
- Ryan O’Hearn (4.170): $3MM
- Cedric Mullins (4.078): $6.4MM
- Austin Hays (4.057): $6.1MM
- Dillon Tate (4.048): $1.5MM
- Jorge Mateo (4.000): $2.9MM
- Ryan Mountcastle (3.105): $4.2MM
- Cionel Perez (3.085): $1.3MM
- Cole Irvin (3.083): $1.8MM
- Keegan Akin (3.079): $800K
- Jacob Webb (3.046): $1.2MM
- Ramon Urias (3.025): $2MM
- Tyler Wells (2.132): $2.3MM
- Ryan McKenna (2.123): $740K
Padres (6)
- Juan Soto (5.134): $33MM
- Tim Hill (5.112): $2.4MM
- Scott Barlow (5.030): $7.1MM
- Trent Grisham (4.060): $4.9MM
- Austin Nola (4.045): $2.35MM
- Adrian Morejon (3.140): $900K
Phillies (8)
- Jeff Hoffman (5.084): $2.1MM
- Ranger Suarez (4.112): $4.7MM
- Gregory Soto (4.102): $4.9MM
- Jake Cave (4.071): $1.4MM
- Edmundo Sosa (3.140): $1.7MM
- Dylan Covey (3.138): $1MM
- Garrett Stubbs (3.120): $900K
- Alec Bohm (3.106): $4.3MM
Pirates (6)
- Ryan Borucki (5.006): $1.3MM
- Miguel Andujar (4.053): $2.2MM
- Mitch Keller (4.026): $6MM
- JT Brubaker (4.000): $2.28MM
- David Bednar (3.076): $4.7MM
- Connor Joe (2.136): $2MM
Rangers (10)
- Matt Bush (5.058): $2.1MM
- Brett Martin (4.151): $1.28MM
- Nathaniel Lowe (3.145): $8.8MM
- Jonathan Hernandez (3.131): $1.3MM
- Jonah Heim (3.097): $3.6MM
- Adolis Garcia (3.095): $6.6MM
- Dane Dunning (3.083): $3.4MM
- Brock Burke (3.065): $1.1MM
- Josh Sborz (3.055): $900K
- Leody Taveras (2.124): $2.4MM
Rays (16)
- Raimel Tapia (5.144): $2.4MM
- Shawn Armstrong (5.113): $1.8MM
- Andrew Kittredge (5.070): $2.3MM
- Jalen Beeks (5.003): $1.8MM
- Harold Ramirez (4.124): $4.4MM
- Colin Poche (4.114): $2.1MM
- Aaron Civale (4.058): $4.6MM
- Zack Littell (4.043): $1.7MM
- Christian Bethancourt (4.038): $2.3MM
- Cole Sulser (3.157): $900K
- Jason Adam (3.132): $3MM
- Randy Arozarena (3.129): $9MM
- Drew Rasmussen (3.111): $2.2MM
- Isaac Paredes (2.160): $3.2MM
- Shane McClanahan (2.158): $3.6MM
- Josh Fleming (2.144): $1MM
Red Sox (5)
- Nick Pivetta (5.166): $6.9MM
- Alex Verdugo (5.078): $9.2MM
- Luis Urias (4.098): $4.7MM
- Reese McGuire (4.027): $1.7MM
- John Schreiber (3.027): $1.3MM
Reds (10)
- Lucas Sims (5.014): $2.8MM
- Nick Senzel (4.150): $3MM
- Derek Law (4.081): $1.4MM
- Justin Dunn (4.020): $900K
- Tejay Antone (4.000): $900K
- Alex Young (3.143): $1.7MM
- Jake Fraley (3.097): $2.2MM
- Tyler Stephenson (3.056): $2.9MM
- Jonathan India (3.000): $3.7MM
- Vladimir Gutierrez (2.127): $1MM
Rockies (7)
- Harold Castro (4.141): $1.8MM
- Austin Gomber (4.111): $3.3MM
- Brendan Rodgers (4.075): $3.3MM
- Ty Blach (3.135): $1.8MM
- Peter Lambert (3.128): $1.2MM
- Austin Wynns (3.090): $1MM
- Lucas Gilbreath (2.148): $800K
Royals (8)
- Taylor Clarke (4.120): $2.2MM
- Josh Taylor (4.118): $1.3MM
- Josh Staumont (4.071): $1.2MM
- Taylor Hearn (3.165): $1.7MM
- Brady Singer (3.156): $5.1MM
- Kris Bubic (3.135): $2.4MM
- Edward Olivares (3.049): $1.8MM
- Carlos Hernandez (2.145): $1.3MM
Tigers (8)
- Austin Meadows (5.074): $4.3MM
- Spencer Turnbull (4.167): $2.4MM
- Tyler Alexander (4.058): $2MM
- Trey Wingenter (4.017): $1.1MM
- Tarik Skubal (3.114): $2.6MM
- Casey Mize (3.111): $1.2MM
- Jake Rogers (3.040): $2MM
- Akil Baddoo (2.119): $1.7MM
Twins (9)
- Caleb Thielbar (5.131): $3MM
- Kyle Farmer (5.129): $6.6MM
- Jordan Luplow (5.025): $1.6MM
- Willi Castro (4.017): $3.2MM
- Jorge Alcala (4.014): $1MM
- Ryan Jeffers (3.089): $2.3MM
- Jose De Leon (3.062): $740K
- Alex Kirilloff (2.141): $1.7MM
- Nick Gordon (2.136): $1MM
White Sox (8)
- Clint Frazier (4.092): $900K
- Dylan Cease (4.089): $8.8MM
- Michael Kopech (4.041): $3.6MM
- Trayce Thompson (4.010): $1.7MM
- Matt Foster (3.093): $740K
- Touki Toussaint (3.071): $1.7MM
- Garrett Crochet (3.028): $900K
- Andrew Vaughn (3.000): $3.7MM
Yankees (17)
- Lou Trivino (5.163): $4.1MM
- Gleyber Torres (5.162): $15.3MM
- Clay Holmes (5.031): $6MM
- Jonathan Loaisiga (5.022): $2.5MM
- Kyle Higashioka (5.005): $2.3MM
- Franchy Cordero (4.160): $1.6MM
- Domingo German (4.142): $4.4MM
- Nestor Cortes (4.094): $3.9MM
- Jose Trevino (4.063): $2.7MM
- Matt Bowman (4.043): $1MM
- Michael King (4.004): $2.6MM
- Ryan Weber (3.167): $900K
- Billy McKinney (3.087): $1.2MM
- Jake Bauers (3.084): $1.7MM
- Jimmy Cordero (3.061): $900K
- Clarke Schmidt (2.148): $2.6MM
- Albert Abreu (2.118): $900K