Roy Halladay Rumors
The Mets made a big splash this afternoon when they inked veteran starter Bartolo Colon to a two-year deal. Here's the latest out of the NL East..
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter links) asked Nationals GM Mike Rizzo if he'd consider trading Jordan Zimmermann. The Nats have tried to extend Zimmerman twice and, like David Price of the Rays, he has two years of club control remaining. “We’d certainly love to get something done with him. But like any premium guy on your team, if here is something that can’t be done, then you would think about a trade. But that’s the furthest thing from our minds,” Rizzo said.
- Colon's age and history allowed the Mets to land him at a reasonable price, tweets Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors. In Tim's view, it's easy to see him returning $20MM+ of value over the next two years.
- Jerry Blevins found out that he was traded from the Athletics to the Nationals around noon time, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson (on Twitter). He was initially shocked because, unlike our readers, he did not pay attention to any of the trade rumors going on.
- The Braves were interested in Roy Halladay before he chose to retire and would like to add a veteran starter on a short-term deal, tweets Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press.
- Mets officials met with Ervin Santana's people, but that appears unlikely in the wake of the Colon signing, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
- The Phillies didn't meet with Bronson Arroyo yet and while that doesn't necessarily preclude a deal, others are more serious about him, tweets Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Roy Halladay is retiring from baseball, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Halladay will sign a one-day contract with the Blue Jays today so that he can announce his retirement from the game as a member of the Jays, adds Heyman (Twitter links).
Halladay, 36, has been hampered by shoulder injuries in each of the past two seasons and underwent surgery to attempt to repair the issue in May 2013. He returned to the mound for the Phillies in late August and made six more starts but still wound up posting an uncharacteristic 6.82 ERA in his final, injury-riddled campaign.
Halladay, affectionately referred to as "Doc," spent the better portion of a decade as one of the greatest pitchers of his time. From 2001-2011, Halladay pitched an even 2300 innings and posted a stellar 2.98 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and a brilliant 1.6 K/9. Despite pitching in two of baseball's most hitter-friendly environments -- Toronto's Rogers Centre and Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park -- Halladay yielded just 0.7 homers per nine innings in that time as well.
That peak run for Halladay saw him pile up accolade after accolade; Doc was named to eight All-Star teams, won a pair of Cy Young Awards and added in five other Top 5 finishes in the Cy Young voting -- most recently finishing runner-up in 2011. Halladay finished in the Top 10 in NL MVP voting in both 2010 an 2011 as well.
Perhaps most famously, Halladay will be remembered for firing a no-hitter in Game 1 of the 2010 National League Division Series against the Reds, with a fifth-inning walk to Jay Bruce being the lone plate appearance preventing him from a perfect game. Just five months prior, Halladay had hurled a perfect game against the Marlins during the regular season.
Halladay's sudden retirement brings to close a career that will finish with a 203-105 record, a 3.38 ERA and 2,117 strikeouts in 2,749 1/3 innings pitched. Halladay's 67 complete games and 20 shutouts are a rarity in today's game of specialized bullpens, and they serve as a testament to the durability and mental acumen that allowed him to lead the league in innings pitched on four separate occasions. Baseball-Reference.com values his career at 65.6 wins above replacement, and Fangraphs is even more generous, rating him at 67.6 WAR. Halladay earned just shy of $149MM in his career, per Baseball-Reference.
Congratulations on a great career to one of the best of our generation, and best of luck in life after baseball, Roy.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Earlier today, MLBTR posted a batch of notes from the National League West. Now, let's take a look at the other teams playing in the Senior Circuit:
- David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweeted his skepticism of the Braves' reported interest in Raul Ibanez citing his age (41) and lack of available at-bats (if Atlanta's corner outfielders are healthy).
- The Nationals now appear to be targeting a backup catcher and left-handed bullpen help, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com tweets, suggesting Eric O'Flaherty as an option to meet the latter need. The connection with O'Flaherty corroborates a recent report from the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore.
- O'Flaherty is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and may not be available until May, but it won't scare off the Nationals, tweets Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com.
- While the Nationals are making a strong run at O'Flaherty, the Phillies and Dodgers have also shown interest, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak provided his explanation of the rash of signings and trades prior to the start of the Winter Meetings to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold. "For us, it was limited opportunities," Mozeliak said. "Everything we looked at, everything we wanted to do, everything we found attractive was limited, and we knew that we had to move quickly to attend to those needs or perhaps miss on (the preferred targets) and have to reassess."
- The market for Roy Halladay has yet to develop, tweets Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
- Brian McCann, who grew up a Braves fan, tells MLB.com's Mark Bowman that he relished his time in Atlanta. "I got to be teammates with Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz," McCann said. "I don't know if it gets much better than that, being from Atlanta."
Aaron Steen contributed to this post.
Here's the latest from the City of Brotherly Love...
- The Phillies intend to avoid more expensive free agents like Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo and Brian McCann in favor of "mid-level" free agents, CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury reports. The Phillies are wary of how much it would cost to sign Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran or Curtis Granderson even though they like all three players.
- Also from Salisbury, the Phillies have discussed signing Franklin Gutierrez, Marlon Byrd, Joaquin Benoit, Joe Smith and Bronson Arroyo.
- GM Ruben Amaro told reporters (including Salisbury) that the team could wait to see what kind of a market there is for Roy Halladay's services before deciding whether or not to pursue the former Cy Young Award winner. “We’re keeping our eyes open on him. We’re not sure how the market is going to develop for him. But we haven’t ruled out bringing him back," Amaro said.
- The Phillies have "long-standing interest" in Mike Morse and see Morse as "a potential Jayson Werth-like late bloomer," CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman writes. Despite this interest, Morse could just be a backup plan for the Phillies if they can't sign a more higher-profile hitter.
- Carlos Ruiz could make a decision about his next contract soon, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports (Twitter link). We heard earlier this week that the Phillies wanted a quick decision from Ruiz so they could figure out their catching situation.
- If Ruiz doesn't re-sign, Morosi tweets that John Buck could be a more realistic backup plan for the Phillies than A.J. Pierzynski. Not only would Buck be cheaper, Philadelphia is in need of right-handed bats.
- Trading Domonic Brown and bringing back Ryan Madson are two of the topics addressed by MLB.com's Todd Zolecki as part of a Phillies-centric reader mailbag.
ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick checked in with 21 general managers, assistant GMs, player personnel people, and scouts to get their take on some of the biggest storylines of the winter. Here's a look at some of the highlights..
- Almost everyone sees Robinson Cano staying put with 19 votes for the Yankees, one vote for the Dodgers, and one for the Cubs. Nearly everyone sees Cano getting a seven- or eight-year deal worth $160MM-$230MM and no one expects him to approach the $300MM figure he was asking for from the Bombers earlier this year. It should be noted that the GM that picked the Cubs said that he has no inside info to support that pick.
- Nine execs see Masahiro Tanaka landing with the Dodgers while six chose the Yankees. All but a handful of those surveyed think his payout will exceed the $60MM Yu Darvish got from the Rangers. Tanaka is ranked as the top available pitcher by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes.
- Seventeen of the 21 participants in the survey say David Price will get traded this winter. Where will he land? The Rangers got nine votes and the Dodgers got four nods with one vote each for the Nationals, Cardinals, Angels, and Astros.
- Opinions were somewhat split on whether Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo fChoo will provide better value over the course of their next deals. Twelve execs said Ellsbury, eight voted for Choo, and one GM declined to vote, saying that neither one will match what they get.
- When asked to pick the best pitcher between Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, and Ubaldo Jimenez, ten execs chose Garza. Most seemed to agree that the lack of quality starting pitching available will lead to all three being overpaid. One American League scout seemed to like Jimenez on some level but was skeptical of him long-term. "Ubaldo has the best chance to give you impact in the short term, but I am not buying him over the course of 3-4 years," the scout said.
- When asked which former Yankees prospect has a better chance of succeeding elsewhere with a change of scenery, Phil Hughes was the overwhelming choice over Joba Chamberlain.
- Crasnick asked the execs which aging pitcher had the most left in the tank between Roy Halladay, Hiroki Kuroda, and Tim Hudson. Kuroda had the backing of 12 people surveyed, Hudson got eight votes, and Halladay had just one exec in his corner. "Maybe the chances of [Halladay] coming back aren't real good if you look at it objectively," a scout said. "But if the guy wants to [keep pitching] and be successful, I wouldn't put it past him."
The Blue Jays' decision to fire hitting coach Chad Mottola yesterday made him a curious scapegoat for the team's 2013 failures, opines Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi points out that Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie (who hit .283/.346/.417 in the second half) all made positive strides under Mottola, who was in his first season as a Major League coach. Here's more on the Blue Jays...
- Sergio Santos' contract no longer looks as team-friendly as it once did, but the Blue Jays aren't missing Nestor Molina, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Molina has struggled with the White Sox since being sent to Chicago in exchange for Santos, and Santos' final two months were healthy and dominant. Santos tells Nicholson-Smith that his goal for 2014 is to stay healthy, which will be a key if he's to have any chance at seeing his $6MM option exercised.
- Starting pitching is still the team's top priority this offseason, but an upgrade at catcher has leapfrogged left field for the team's No. 2 priority, writes MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm in his latest Blue Jays Inbox. Chisolm notes that the free agent market will be expensive and competitive and adds that the Jays are interested in Wilson Ramos of the Nationals, though he would be an expensive trade target himself (in terms of prospects). Still, Chisolm writes that GM Alex Anthopoulos "seems determined" to make an upgrade behind the dish.
- Anthony Gose could slot into the fourth outfielder role that will open up with Rajai Davis' departure, but Chisolm notes that he's also one of the team's top trade chips. Gose could also move into a starting role should a starting outfielder be traded.
- The Blue Jays felt that Emilio Bonifacio couldn't handle playing the infield on the turf at the Rogers' Centre due to his poor footwork and limited range, writes Chisholm, which is why they essentially gave him to the Royals. He'd have been non-tendered this winter, Chisholm adds.
- Chisolm also addresses the free agent market, noting that the Jays aren't likely to break their policy of limiting free agent deals to five years this offseason and aren't likely to pursue a Roy Halladay reunion as they need more certainty in a starting pitching acquisition.
It's been a forgettable pair of seasons and a sharp fall from his status as arguably the game's best pitcher for Roy Halladay. Halladay will carry a 6.82 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 in just 62 innings into free agency this offseason, but Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told reporters, including Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News, that he hopes Halladay has a future with the Phillies:
"I try not to think in absolutes with him. If we think he’s going to be a viable possibility for us, we’d like to try to bring him back. I’d like to think it’s not the last we’ll see of Doc."
Halladay's struggles began in 2012, as he was limited to just 159 1/3 innings of 4.49 ERA ball by a strained lat muscle that cost him nearly two months of action. This season, after trying to pitch through shoulder pain and barely cracking 90 mph with his fastball, Halladay gave in and underwent surgery in May. The operation removed bone spurs in addition to repairing both his rotator cuff and labrum.
Lawrence notes that Amaro conceded any deal for Halladay would have to be one in which both parties share the risk, or in other words, an incentive-laden deal. The Phillies already face uncertainty in their rotation beyond aces Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels; Cuban righty Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez projects to occupy one spot but hasn't thrown a Major League pitch before, and Kyle Kendrick saw his own season come to an end due to a shoulder injury.
Heading into the offseason, we can be sure of seeing the usual collection of low-risk deals for formerly marquee free-agent starting pitchers. Last winter, the Pirates struck gold with a one-year, incentive-laden deal for Francisco Liriano, as he's generated 3.0 fWAR this season while making just $1MM. Though they'll require larger commitments, two starters hitting the free agent market this offseason, Josh Johnson and Roy Halladay, offer similar ace potential and are also likely to be had relatively cheaply. They're up next in our Free Agent Faceoff series.
When I asked last week in a poll, just 29 percent of you said the Blue Jays should extend Johnson a qualifying offer this offseason after an injury-marred 2013. This season was certainly a disappointing one for the right-hander, as his 6.20 ERA was the worst of his career if you ignore 2007, when he threw just 15 2/3 innings. However, I made the case that Johnson was among the most unlucky starters in baseball this season, as 18.5 percent of his fly balls went for home runs. That's likely to fall, as it's double his career mark of 8.2 percent. When Johnson's healthy, he can be as dominant as any starter in baseball, as his lifetime 3.40 ERA attests to. He's just rarely healthy for a full season. Any acquiring team will hope that the 29-year-old can recapture some of his 2010 magic, when he managed an acceptable 183 2/3 innings and led the NL in ERA.
Halladay's 2013 mark of 6.71 ERA in 61 2/3 innings was one of several troubling statistics for the right-hander in 2013, a year that also saw his average two-seam fastball velocity fall to just 88.7 mph. That's a concerning figure for a 36-year-old who missed significant time with a shoulder injury. Halladay's 5.0 BB/9 rate and 1.8 HR/9 rate were also his highest since 2000, when he was in his early 20s. At this point in Halladay's career, we may just be seeing the decline of a pitcher whose right arm logged more than 1,400 innings over a six-year period from 2006-2011. However, there's also no ignoring the fact that he has two Cy Young Awards to his name. If Halladay can prove that he's healthy, that sterling resume is sure to loom large in the evaluation process for many clubs.
In Johnson and Halladay, we have two starters who succumbed to injuries in 2013 but are likely to draw significant interest as former top-of-the-rotation starters. Johnson has dominated in the past when healthy, and though he hasn't had the career Halladay has, he has youth on his side at age 29. Halladay is a much older 36, but he was also among the best pitchers in baseball over that 2006-2011 span. Who would you rather have?
Catching figures to be a major priority for the Phillies this season with Carlos Ruiz eligible for free agency and top catching prospect Tommy Joseph having endured a lost season as a result of concussion issues. However, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com provides an in-depth look at the Phils' catching depth beyond Joseph, noting that Cameron Rupp has already reached the Majors. Phillies director of player development Joe Jordan tells Salisbury that he's also very excited about 2013 second-rounder Andrew Knapp, and a rival scout familiar with the Phillies' system was particularly enthusiastic about Dominican prospect Deivi Grullon. Here's more on Ruiz and the Phillies...
- Ruiz would like to return to Philadelphia, writes Salisbury in a separate piece, and the organization has taken note of his recent surge at the plate, with GM Ruben Amaro Jr. stating that Ruiz looks far more relaxed. Pitching coach Rich Dubee, who knows Ruiz quite well, feels that Ruiz is best limited to 100 games behind the plate at this point in his career, however.
- Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus writes that Darin Ruf is exceeding expectations of scouts and talent evaluators with his production at the big league level so far. Lindbergh's piece includes an excellent interview with Ruf, conducted last week, in which Ruf discusses what scouts thought of him, his limitations on the field and his journey from senior sign/20th-round pick to a potential long-term asset for the Phillies. "I’m probably a bad person to ask prospect-type questions because, I don’t know, I never was one," Ruf candidly replied at one point in the interview.
- Roy Halladay and Kyle Kendrick will force the Phils to make tough decisions this offseason, writes MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. The Phillies have four more starts to evaluate Halladay's progress from shoulder surgery, but as Amaro noted to Zolecki, it's possible that Doc won't be at full strength until next spring. Amaro and his staff will have to decide whether or not to bring Halladay back on an incentive-laden deal or seek a more certain commodity.
- Likewise, the decision on whether or not to tender Kendrick a contract that could approach $8MM via arbitration is no easy decision. Kendrick has never been on the disabled list, Zolecki noted in a different piece, a trait that would make him desirable to other teams should the Phillies non-tender him and try to sign him for less money. Dubee agreed: "If something doesn't happen here, I'm sure there's going to be plenty of seekers. He's durable. He hasn't missed a start all year. Those guys are highly sought."
- Zolecki also adds that left-hander John Lannan is likely to be non-tendered by the Phils this offseason following surgery on his left knee.
Last night, the Phillies added some pitching depth to their organization with the acquisition of minor league hurlers Rob Rasmussen and Nefi Ogando, in separate trades, for Michael Young and John McDonald, respectively. These are the first of many decisions the Phillies' front office will need to make in anticipation of 2014. Here's more on the Phillies and the rest of the NL East:
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has backed himself into corner where he may not be able to significantly upgrade the team's talent next year, which puts interim manager Ryne Sandberg in a shaky situation and may make him the wrong man at the wrong place at a very wrong time for his long-awaited turn at being a MLB manager, writes the Times of Trenton's Barry Federovitch.
- Another big decision the Phillies have to make is whether to re-sign Roy Halladay, who will be a free agent this winter. Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer opines the Phillies have taken too many risks, health and talent-wise, in recent years which did not work and should not keep another risky proposition like Halladay around even if the price seems right.
- FanGraph's Dave Cameron, in an ESPN Insider subscription-required piece, names Halladay and fellow NL East right-hander Dan Haren as part of an interesting free agent class: broken-but-perhaps-fixable formerly great pitchers.
- There is a "strong expectation" Terry Collins will continue as the Mets' manager in 2014, a source familiar with the situation told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. The source added there is internal respect for how Collins has navigated this year's challenges. Rubin reasons, by not committing to Collins now, it protects the front office in case there is a serious swoon or an unforeseeable major event during the season's final month.
- Ike Davis may not be as fortunate. He will most likley miss the remainder of the year with a strained right oblique and is in jeopardy of being non-tendered this winter, writes Rubin in two separate articles. Rubin compares Davis' situation to that of right-hander Mike Pelfrey who was non-tendered last December when the Mets did not want to risk the raise on his $5.7MM salary. Davis is currently earning $3.125MM and Rubin sees a 2014 salary in the neighborhood of $3.5-4MM; but, with so much money coming off the Mets' books, it might be palatable to carry such a salary rather than non-tender him if no trade materializes.