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Latest On Rockies’ GM Position

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For the first time since 2014, the Rockies are in the market for a new general manager. Jeff Bridich spent the past six-plus years as the Rockies’ GM, but he and the team went their separate ways Monday. Colorado will appoint an interim GM for the rest of the 2021 campaign – likely scouting director Bill Schmidt or assistant GM Zack Rosenthal, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports – and then hire a permanent replacement for Bridich after the season.

Although Bridich has only been out of a job for a few hours, a potential successor from outside the organization has already emerged. Twins GM Thad Levine is “[t]he leading candidate” for the opening in Colorado, Nightengale writes. There’s familiarity between the Rockies and the 49-year-old Levine, who worked in their front office in various roles – including senior director of baseball operations – from 1999-2005. He then left to become the Rangers’ assistant GM, but not before earning the respect of Rockies owner Dick Monfort, according to Nightengale.

Along with president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, Levine has helped lead a turnaround in Minnesota since his hiring after the 2016 season. The Twins, then coming off a 59-win season, have gone to the playoffs three times and won two American League Central titles during the Falvey-Levine reign. As a result of the positive on-field results, Levine has garnered interest from other organizations during his time with the Twins. The Mets wanted to interview Levine for their GM job back in 2018, and he was a legitimate candidate to take over the Phillies’ front office this past offseason. Levine backed out of the running for that post, which ultimately went to Dave Dombrowski.

It’s not known whether Levine would have interest in leaving Minnesota for Colorado. Levine is currently under contract with the Twins through 2024 on the extension he signed in 2019.

Carlos Correa vs. Trevor Story

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In the comment section on my recent 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, there was a lot of debate about the merits of shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, who seem to clearly fall behind Corey Seager in the upcoming free agent class.  Which player will have greater earning power in free agency?

Some points of comparison:

Age on Opening Day 2022

  • Correa: 27.54 years
  • Story: 29.39 years
  • Difference: 1.85 years

Age is a crucial factor in free agent contract length, as teams want to avoid as many decline years as possible.  Capturing a player’s age 27 season in free agency is a rare thing.  In the cases of Bryce Harper (13 years), Manny Machado (10 years), and Jason Heyward (eight years), teams were actually able to capture age 26.  There are not any other recent cases of free agent deals that included age 26 or 27.

Machado signed for ten years and $300MM, while the Mets recently extended Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341MM, albeit with deferred money.  The players were paid through age 35 and 37, respectively.  A contract running through age 37, as Lindor’s does, is pretty rare.  I think teams will be looking to commit to Correa and Story through age 35 or 36, at most.  Paying through age 35 would mean a nine-year deal for Correa, though that might be a long shot given his inconsistency and injury history.  It’d mean a seven-year deal for Story.  Those terms would only be available if the players are considered highly desirable after strong 2021 seasons.

Offense

Rest of 2021 Season ZiPs/Steamer projections in wRC+

  • Correa: 125 / 118
  • Story: 102 / 103

2019 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 126
  • Story: 117

2018 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 115
  • Story: 121

2018 was Story’s best year (128 wRC+) and one of Correa’s worst (101), so whether you include it makes a big difference.  But it’s pretty clear that Correa has a higher ceiling, with marks of 136 in 2015, 152 in 2017, and 143 in 2019.  As we’ll discuss later, Correa was quite clearly affected after returning from a back injury in 2018, so I think the “2019 to present” numbers are a better reflection of his true ability.

Why use wRC+?  It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field.  If you cite straight-up numbers with no adjustment, you’d clearly prefer Story.  I think any MLB team interested in Story would attempt to neutralize the effects of Coors, though.  It is not as simple as looking at Story’s work on the road and assuming that’s how he’d play for a new team in a neutral ballpark.  But since 2018, Story does have a huge split: a 136 wRC+ at home, and 105 on the road.  In terms of triple slash, Story is at .266/.327/.450 on the road since 2018, and .316/.379/.642 at home.

Story may follow the path of Matt Holliday.  From 2005-07, Holliday posted an even more extreme 166 at home and 108 on the road.  He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from 2008-13, mostly for the Cardinals.  Holliday was able to spend all of his 2009 contract year away from Coors, posting a 141 wRC+ for the A’s and Cardinals that likely helped him land the largest contract of the 2009-10 offseason.  DJ LeMahieu is another example of a former Rockie who continued to hit well after posting extreme splits.

In the likely event Story is traded this summer, he’ll have a chance to demonstrate his standard 120 wRC+ production in a more neutral environment for a few months.  That’s more likely than a Correa trade, and being free of a qualifying offer would be an advantage for Story.

It makes little sense to remove park factors, when Minute Maid Park has suppressed offense (outside of 2019) while Coors Field has inflated it by a minimum of 12% during Story’s career.  But for comparison, Correa has hit .276/.352/.483 since 2017 and .258/.334/.453 since 2018.  Story stands at .278/.342/.524 since 2017 and .291/.353/.547 since 2018.  Story has reached the 35 home run mark twice, while Correa’s career-best is 24.

As for Correa, what about the sign-stealing scandal?  According to MLB’s report, the bulk of the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts were in 2017, in which Correa put up a career-best 152 wRC+.  He was excellent both at home and on the road, though the scheme is only thought to have occurred at the Astros’ home park.  MLB’s report suggested the Astros did not utilize trash-can banging in 2018, when Correa dropped down to 101.  That 101 mark may be explained by a back injury, which I’ll get into later.  The Astros also weren’t thought to be cheating in 2019, but Correa bounced back to a 143 mark.

Astros fan Tony Adams analyzed home data for the Astros from 2017, and found 140 total trash can bangs for George Springer and 97 for Correa.  If potential free agent suitors consider Springer and Correa equally complicit in the sign-stealing, it would bode well for Correa, since the scandal didn’t seem to have much effect on Springer’s market.  Ultimately, like Springer, Correa just needs to go out and have a big contract year if he wants to get paid.  There’s a solid argument that in a neutral ballpark, he’s a better hitter than Story.

Defense

By measure of UZR/150, Story is at 3.9 since 2018, while Correa sits at -3.5.  Story also leads in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), though that’s a cumulative stat and he played an additional 1,042 innings in the field – 47% more than Correa did.  Outs Above Average, which is part of Statcast, is more sophisticated than UZR or DRS, but doesn’t necessarily tell a clear story.  Here’s each player’s OAA by year:

  • 2016: Story 4 (823 innings), Correa -17 (1355.6 innings)
  • 2017: Story 7 (1185.3 innings), Correa -3 (946 innings)
  • 2018: Story -5 (1372.6 innings), Correa 17 (959 innings)
  • 2019: Story 18 (1257.3 innings), Correa 9 (642.3 innings)
  • 2020: Story 2 (491.3 innings), Correa 3 (475 innings)

It would appear that Story’s defense slipped to a below-average level in only one season, 2018, on which OAA and UZR/150 agree.  There’s no clear injury in 2018 to explain the lapse, though he miss a few late September games with elbow soreness.  Story was able to improve his range and reduce his errors in 2019, and seems to have settled in as an above-average defender.

We’ll talk about durability in the next section, but with Correa we have a player who has tallied 1,000 innings in the field exactly once, in his 2016 sophomore season.  UZR suggested he was a bit below average that year, while OAA had him as the game’s worst defensive shortstop.

2018 is particularly odd for Correa, where OAA shows him as the game’s fourth-best defensive shortstop while UZR/150 has him as the fourth-worst.  That was a year in which Correa avoided the IL until late June, at which point he missed over a month due to a back injury.  He acknowledged that the injury played a role in his plummeting offense, and his OAA was lower after the injury.  MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggested to me that the Astros’ frequent shifting, and UZR’s lack of accounting for that, might account for the difference between the two stats.

Correa suffered another major injury toward the end of May 2019 – a cracked rib that cost him two months – as well as more back pain in late August of that year.  Nonetheless, his defense doesn’t seem to have suffered.

Both Story and Correa have been above average defenders since 2019, ranking fourth and ninth respectively in OAA.  Story is carried largely by his 2019 season, for which he was voted a Gold Glove finalist for the first time.  Though he has dropped off so far this year, Story has often ranked among the top 40 in the game in terms of sprint speed, which is a factor in his defense.  I think it’s safe to say that Story is the superior defender.  It’s worth noting that Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if needed, while the topic hasn’t really been broached for Story.

Durability

Story was drafted 45th overall by the Rockies out of high school in 2011.  As a minor leaguer in 2014, he missed roughly a month due to hairline fracture on his left pinky finger.  The Rockies traded longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in July 2015, taking on Jose Reyes in the process.  In 2016, Reyes was suspended through May to begin the year under the league’s domestic violence policy, opening the door for Story to make the team out of camp.  After becoming the Rockies’ starter in 2016, Story’s season ended on July 30th due to a torn UCL in his left thumb that would require surgery.  It was still good for a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish.

A new injury popped up in May 2017, as Story strained his left shoulder and missed the minimum two weeks.  In late September 2018, Story exited a game with right elbow soreness, but he missed only five games.  In June of 2019, Story injured his right thumb after a headfirst slide, with the resulting IL stint costing him 11 games.

That’s the full extent of Story’s injury history in his five-plus years.  He’s played in 522 games since 2017, 14th in all of MLB.  Story was able to recover quickly from minor injuries in 2017, ’18, and ’19, and can safely be penciled in for 145-150 games annually.

Correa was drafted first overall by the Astros out of high school in 2012.  He dealt with only minor injuries in the minor leagues until June 2014, when he suffered a fractured right fibula sliding into third base and had to undergo surgery.  By January 2015, his ankle was back to 100%.

Correa opened the 2015 season at Double-A, a defensible choice since he’d yet to play at that level.  He reached Triple-A by May and went on to make his big league debut on June 8th.  The timing worked out well for the Astros to receive part of a seventh year of control of Correa and also avoid Super Two status, but his starting the year in the minors was justified.  Correa played 99 dynamic regular season games in 2016, avoiding injury and winning the Rookie of the Year award.

2016, just Correa’s age 21 season, was perhaps the best of his career.  He missed three games in June with an ankle sprain and another four with shoulder inflammation, but avoided the IL.  Correa would play 153 games in the regular season that year, the only time he’s exceeded 110 Major League games in a season.

Correa’s injury history is significant, but also limited to the three-year period of 2017-19.  On July 17th, 2017, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, “Correa left Monday’s 9-7 loss to the Mariners in the fourth inning after injuring the thumb on a swing, the same thumb he originally hurt sliding head-first into home July 4 in Atlanta.”  The torn thumb ligament required surgery and cost him more than six weeks.  He returned successfully in September of that year.

Correa’s next IL stint was in June of 2018 due to a back injury.  Like the thumb the prior year, this injury cost him about a month and a half.  Though he returned in mid-August, the issue lingered and affected his performance for the rest of the season.  From 2015-19, 2018 is Correa’s only season with a wRC+ below 123, and it’s easy to attribute his overall 101 mark that year to his back injury.  Correa had a 128 wRC+ before the injury, and just a 45 mark thereafter.

Correa’s back healed up and he started yoga in the 2018-19 offseason, but a cracked rib suffered in late May 2019 cost him a full two months.  Oddly, Correa said the rib was cracked by what must have been a particularly aggressive massage.  After he’d been back for about a month, he went on the IL again due to a back injury.  Since then, Correa has avoided the IL, playing in 58 of 60 games in 2020.

Both Story and Correa have been starters since 2016.  Story has played in 619 games – 19% more than Correa’s 520.  Is Correa, who has yet to reach his 27th birthday, simply an injury-prone player?  Or might he settle in at 150 games per year if he avoids headfirst slides and rough massages?  If I was looking at signing him, it’s his back that I’d be concerned about, as it cost him roughly two and a half months during the 2018-19 seasons.  150 games this year would go a long way.

Overall Value

Much of Correa’s value is packed into the earlier years of his career, when he put up 13.7 WAR in 361 games from 2015-17.  He’s managed only 6.1 WAR since, roughly the same as what Story did in 2019 alone.  Career-wise, Correa leads Story 19.8 to 17.9.

From 2018 to present, Correa has been good for 3.7 WAR per 650 plate appearances, while Story is at 5.4.  From 2019 to present, those numbers are 4.7 for Correa and 5.5 for Story.  But here’s how each player projects for the rest of the season per 650 PA, according to FanGraphs:

  • Correa ZiPS: 5.0
  • Correa Steamer: 4.1
  • Story ZiPS: 3.5
  • Story Steamer: 2.9

If you buy those projections, Correa will be the better per-game player moving forward, likely due to the age difference.  Aside from the durability question, that is what MLB teams must determine when offering these players contracts: who will be better over the next seven years or so?

With that lengthy comparison of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, I turn it over to you.

West Notes: Ohtani, Posey, Owings, Long

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Shohei Ohtani has been scheduled to start Tuesday’s game against the Rangers, the Angels announced today.  The two-way star has pitched just once this season due to a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand, but he threw three bullpen sessions this week of increasing pitch volume, topping out at a 30-pitch bullpen on Saturday.

With no further issues in the wake of these sessions, Ohtani will look to build on an inconsistent first start that saw him allow one earned run over 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox on April 4, but with five walks and two hits allowed.  While Ohtani has been kept off the mound, the blister hasn’t slowed down his red-hot bat, as Ohtani is hitting .333/.370/.706 with four home runs in 54 plate appearances.

More from both the AL West and NL West..

  • It isn’t yet known if Buster Posey will require an injured list placement, as Giants manager Gabe Kapler said the catcher will be re-evaluated on Monday.  Speaking to reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly) before and after today’s game with the Marlins, Kapler said pre-game that there was some swelling in Posey’s left elbow, but during the post-game noted that the swelling had lessened.  Posey left Saturday’s game in the seventh inning after being hit by a pitch, and x-rays were negative on the catcher’s elbow.
  • The Rockies moved Chris Owings from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list earlier today, as Owings will have to undergo surgery on his left thumb.  Manager Bud Black told The Athletic’s Nick Groke and other reporters that Owings will need at least eight weeks of recovery time.  Owings’ injury was initially diagnosed as a left thumb sprain when he was first placed on the IL last week, but the veteran utilityman is now going to end up missing a big chunk of the 2021 campaign.
  • After undergoing surgery last September to fix a stress fracture in his right shin, Mariners utilityman Shed Long continues to make some progress on the recovery trail.  Manager Scott Servais updated reporters (including Jen Mueller of Root Sports) on Long, saying that he is still having difficulty making changes of direction on his shin and making stops when running, though Long is able to run and sprint without any problems.  It isn’t yet known when Long might be ready to make his 2021 debut.

Dodgers Place Gavin Lux On Injured List, Activate Brusdar Graterol

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The Dodgers are placing second baseman Gavin Lux on the 10-day injured list with right wrist soreness, retroactive to April 16, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times and Juan Toribio of MLB.com were among those to pass along. Infielder Sheldon Neuse is being recalled to take his place on the active roster. Additionally, right-hander Brusdar Graterol is being activated from the injured list, with fellow reliever Alex Vesia optioned out in a corresponding move.

Lux is having issue swinging a bat, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register), but the Dodgers don’t believe he’ll be in for lengthy absence. Roberts noted he expects Lux to be in position to return when first eligible for activation on April 26. The Dodgers will turn to Neuse, who was acquired from the Athletics over the offseason, this afternoon to make his team debut.

Like Neuse, Graterol is in position to play for the first time this season. The fireballing reliever was delayed in camp but returns to the bullpen a couple weeks into the regular season. He tossed 23.1 innings of 3.09 ERA/3.70 SIERA ball last season.

To clear 40-man roster space for Graterol’s activation, the Dodgers placed right-hander Ashton Goudeau on waivers, where he was claimed by the Rockies. Goudeau actually broke into the majors with Colorado last season, tossing 8.1 innings over four games. He’s since bounced between a handful of teams on waivers, going from the Rockies to the Pirates to the Orioles to the Giants before landing in Los Angeles. Now, he’ll head back to the Rockies in hopes of sticking on a roster. To clear 40-man roster space for Goudeau, Colorado transferred utilityman Chris Owings (thumb) to the 60-day injured list.

2020 Rule 5 Draft Update

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An abnormal number of picks from the 2020 Rule 5 Draft survived Spring Training and made the Opening Day rosters with their new clubs. The Orioles and Marlins both broke camp with a pair of Rule 5 picks on the active roster, while the Pirates opened the season with one Rule 5 pick on the roster and one on the injured list. Most clubs that are carrying a Rule 5 pick, unsurprisingly, have little in the way of postseason aspirations. There are a few October hopefuls among those still clinging to Rule 5 picks, however, and it’ll take some uncharacteristically strong Rule 5 showings for those players to survive the season.

We’ll take a look at how the surviving Rule 5 draftees are faring periodically throughout the year. Here’s the first glance…

Currently in the Majors

  • Brett de Geus, RHP, Rangers (via Dodgers): Injuries throughout the Rangers’ bullpen might have helped the 23-year-old de Geus crack the Opening Day roster in Texas. He’s out to a shaky start, having walked three batters and hit another three against just two strikeouts through his first 5 2/3 innings. On the plus side, 13 of the 15 balls put into play against him have been grounders.
  • Akil Baddoo, OF, Tigers (via Twins): Baddoo is one of the best stories (maybe the best) of the young 2021 season. The 22-year-old homered on his first swing in the big leagues as his family rejoiced in the stands, and in less than two weeks’ time he’s added a grand slam, a walk-off single (against his former organization) a 450-foot dinger off Zack Greinke and a fourth homer. Baddoo has a ludicrous 1.342 OPS through his first 29 plate appearances in the Majors, and while he obviously won’t sustain that, he’s forcing a legitimate audition in the Detroit outfield. Baddoo missed nearly all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and didn’t play in 2020. Despite that layoff and the fact that he’d never played above A-ball, the Tigers called his name in December. It may have seemed like a stretch at the time, but it doesn’t look that way now.
  • Garrett Whitlock, RHP, Red Sox (via Yankees): The Sox would surely love for Whitlock to stick, having plucked him from their archrivals in New York. So far, so good. Better than good, in fact. Through 6 1/3 scoreless innings, Whitlock has yielded three hits and punched out nine batters without issuing a walk. He’s sitting 95.6 mph with his heater and has posted a hefty 16.9 percent swinging-strike rate. Whitlock also had Tommy John surgery in 2019, so even though he’s previously been a starter, it makes sense to monitor his workload ease him into the mix as the Sox hope to get through the year with him in the ’pen.
  • Tyler Wells, RHP, Orioles (via Twins): Wells has allowed a pair of homers and surrendered three total runs on four hits and two walks with five strikeouts in 5 2/3 frames. The O’s aren’t trying to win in 2021, but their bullpen also has four arms that can’t be optioned (Cesar Valdez, Shawn Armstrong, Adam Plutko, Wade LeBlanc). Keeping both Wells and Mac Sceroler (currently on the IL) brings them  to six and will hamper their flexibility.
  • Zach Pop and Paul Campbell, RHPs, Marlins (via Orioles and Rays): Pop was technically the D-backs’ pick in the Rule 5, but Arizona immediately flipped him to the Marlins for a PTBNL. The 24-year-old didn’t allow an earned run in five spring frames but as I was finishing this post, he served up a three-run homer, bringing his season line to seven runs on three hits, three walks and two hit batters in 3 1/3 innings. Campbell has struggled to a similar extent. He’s surrendered five runs (three earned) and given up four hits and three walks in just 2 2/3 innings. With the Marlins out of tank mode, it’ll be tough to carry both all year.
  • Jordan Sheffield, RHP, Rockies (via Dodgers): Sheffield was the No. 36 overall pick in the 2016 Draft, but control issues prevented him from being protected on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen gives Sheffield three plus pitches in his scouting report (fastball, curveball, changeup) but also pegs his command at a 30 on the 20-80 scale. Sheffield has walked or plunked 15 percent of the hitters he faced in the minors. He’s yet to walk anyone 13 batters he’s faced with the Rockies, but he did hit one and has also tossed a pair of wild pitches. That said, he’s also sitting 95.5 mph with his heater and is unscored upon in 3 2/3 frames.
  • Luis Oviedo, RHP, Pirates (via Indians): Oviedo was the Mets’ pick at No. 10, but they had a deal worked out to flip him to the Pirates in exchange for cash. Oviedo has been hammered for six runs on six hits (two homers) and two walks with five strikeouts through 4 2/3 innings so far. Even pitching for a tanking club, Oviedo will need to show some improvement in order to stick on the roster all season.
  • Will Vest, RHP, Mariners (via Tigers): The Mariners kept last year’s Rule 5 pick Yohan Ramirez for the whole season, but it’ll be tougher to do with a full schedule in 2021. The Mariners’ young core is also beginning to rise to the big leagues, and Vest will need to fend off some intriguing young arms. He’s done a decent job so far, allowing a pair of runs (one unearned) on five hits and four walks with five strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings.
  • Trevor Stephan, RHP, Indians (via Yankees): Stephan whiffed 16 of 44 hitters this spring to earn a spot on the Indians’ Opening Day roster, but he’s allowed four runs in his first four MLB frames. The 25-year-old has surrendered five hits (including a homer), walked a pair and hit a batter so far while facing a total of 21 hitters.
  • Ka’ai Tom, OF, Athletics (via Indians): Tom, 26, raked at a .310/.412/.552 pace with a homer, two doubles and a triple in 34 spring plate appearances. After that strong audition, however, he’s just 1-for-16 with six strikeouts through his first 16 trips to the plate with the A’s.

On the Major League injured list

  • Jose Soriano, RHP, Pirates (via Angels): It wasn’t a surprise to see Soriano open the year on the injured list. He’s still recovering from Tommy John surgery performed in Feb. 2020 and didn’t pitch in a game with the Pirates this spring. He’ll be sidelined for at least the first two months, as the Bucs put him on the 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot when they signed Tyler Anderson. Soriano hasn’t pitched above A-ball, but the Pirates aren’t exactly a win-now club, so they can afford to stash him as a seldom-used bullpen piece in order to secure his rights beyond the 2021 season.
  • Mac Sceroler, RHP, Orioles (via Reds): Sceroler fanned six hitters in 3 2/3 innings early in the season but also yielded three runs on five hits (two homers), three walks and a hit batter. The Orioles recently placed him on the 10-day injured list due to tendinitis in his right shoulder, although it’s not expected to be too lengthy an absence.
  • Dedniel Nunez, RHP, Giants (via Mets): Nunez was hit hard in the Cactus League, surrendering four runs in 3 1/3 innings. He’ll now miss the entire 2021 season after sustaining a UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery this spring. Nunez will spend the season on San Francisco’s 60-day injured list and receive a year of MLB service, but he’ll still be subject to Rule 5 restrictions in 2022 once he’s healthy. He’ll need to spend at least 90 days on the MLB roster before he can be sent to the minors; if he doesn’t last that long, he’ll have to pass through waivers and, if he clears, be offered back to the Mets.

Returned to their original club

  • Jose Alberto Rivera, RHP, Angels (via Astros): The Angels didn’t take much of a look at Rivera, returning him to Houston on March 24 after just one inning of official work in Cactus League play.
  • Kyle Holder, SS, Reds (via Yankees): The Reds weren’t sure who their shortstop was going to be heading into Spring Training, but they ultimately settled on moving Eugenio Suarez back to that spot, sliding Mike Moustakas back to third base and giving prospect Jonathan India the nod at second base. A strong spring from Holder might have at least given him a bench spot behind that trio, but he hit just .219/.359/.250 in 39 plate appearances. The Reds returned him to the Yankees on March 30.
  • Gray Fenter, RHP, Cubs (via Orioles): The Cubs returned Fenter to the Orioles on March 12 after just one spring appearance. He hasn’t pitched above A-ball yet.
  • Dany Jimenez, RHP, Athletics (via Blue Jays): The 27-year-old Jimenez was a Rule 5 pick in consecutive offseasons — once by each Bay Area club. The A’s returned him to the Jays on March 15, however, after he yielded four runs (two earned) in three innings of work this spring.

Reds Claim Phillip Diehl, Transfer Michael Lorenzen To 60-Day Injured List

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2:28pm: Lorenzen had a setback in his initial recovery from the shoulder strain and, after getting a second opinion from a specialist, recently received a plasma-rich platelet injection, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. He’s scheduled for a second such injection in two weeks, and the Reds are hopeful that he’ll be able to return sometime in the month of June. That, of course, is dependent on how his shoulder responds to the pair of injections, though.

2:21pm: The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed lefty Phillip Diehl off waivers from the Rockies and optioned him to their alternate training site. Righty Michael Lorenzen was transferred to the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. Lorenzen has been battling a shoulder strain, and manager David Bell recently told reporters that the right-hander’s recovery was “not going as fast as [Lorenzen] would like.”

The waiver claim represents a homecoming for the 26-year-old Diehl, a Cincinnati native who attended Moeller High School before playing his college ball at Louisiana Tech. The Rockies acquired Diehl from the Yankees in exchange for Mike Tauchman — a trade they’d surely like back — and Diehl has been tagged for 13 runs in 13 1/3 innings to this point in his brief career. It’s a small sample, so take this with a grain of salt, but all 13 of those runs have come in 6 1/3 innings at Coors Field; Diehl is unscored upon on the road.

Diehl was hit hard in his lone season of Triple-A ball, recording a 6.75 ERA and serving up a staggering 16 home runs in 45 1/3 frames. That came in 2019’s juiced ball season, however, and he was excellent throughout his minor league career to that point. He boasts a 0.90 ERA in 40 innings of Double-A ball and a 3.15 mark across two Class-A levels. On the whole, he’s punched out a hefty 30.5 percent of the hitters he’s faced in the minors against a similarly impressive 7.1 percent walk rate. Diehl also has a minor league option remaining, so it’s not too tough to see why the Reds were intrigued.

With regard to Lorenzen, it’s an unfortunate development for one of the game’s more interesting players. Lorenzen has been one of the Reds’ top setup men in recent years but was also a part-time outfielder — a strong defender in center field with a career .235/.284/.432 batting line in 146 career plate appearances. He’s belted seven homers in that time and also chipped in a trio of doubles, a triple and even five stolen bases (in seven attempts).

The Reds were planning to give Lorenzen an audition in the starting rotation this year, but it seems the shoulder troubles will table that experiment through at least the season’s first two months. Lorenzen’s initial 10-day IL placement was on Opening Day, retroactive to March 28 — the maximum three days allowed when backdating an IL stint. He’ll be eligible for return 60 days from that point, not from today’s transfer.

In the meantime, the Reds will look forward to getting Sonny Gray back in the near future. He’ll join Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Wade Miley as locks in the rotation. Jeff Hoffman has gotten a pair of early looks, too, but at some point one would expect electric multi-inning reliever Tejay Antone to get an opportunity to show he’s worthy of a rotation job.

Rockies To Sign Chris Rusin

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Left-hander Chris Rusin has agreed to a minor league contract with the Rockies, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets.

This will be the second stint in the Colorado organization for the 34-year-old Rusin, who appeared in the majors with the Rockies in each season from 2015-19. During his best two-year stretch with the team, 2016-17, Rusin ate up 169 1/3 innings and recorded a stingy 3.19 ERA with a quality 6.1 percent walk rate and a similarly impressive 58.5 percent groundball mark.

Unfortunately, Rusin’s career has fallen off track since his halcyon days with the Rockies. He struggled to a 6.09 ERA over 54 1/3 frames in 2018 and then dealt with back problems in 2019, when he threw only one inning. Rusin latched on with the Braves last year, though he totaled just 3 1/3 innings and yielded three runs before they released him in September.

Also a former Cub, the 34-year-old Rusin owns a 4.65 ERA/4.10 SIERA with a 16.8 percent strikeout rate, a walk percentage of 7.6 and a 53.2 percent grounder rate in 468 2/3 big league innings.

Rockies To Sign Ivan Nova

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The Rockies have agreed to a deal with right-hander Ivan Nova, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  It is presumably a minor league contract, which would be the second minors deal of the last three months for the veteran hurler.  Nova previously inked a minors pact with the Phillies last January but was granted a release at the end of March when he didn’t make Philadelphia’s Opening Day roster.

Nova signed a one-year, $1.5MM Major League deal with the Tigers prior to the 2020 season but ended up pitching only 19 innings (with an 8.53 ERA) due to right triceps tendinitis.  With the very notable exception of the Tommy John surgery that cut short both his 2014 and 2015 seasons, Nova has otherwise been a pretty durable pitcher throughout his 11-year career, averaging 174 innings per year from 2016-19 and also banking 335 2/3 frames with the Yankees in 2012-13.

Colorado doesn’t have much rotation depth in the minors, so Nova is by far the most experienced option available at the alternate training site.  How Nova might fare at Coors Field is an open question, as he has a 15.2% homer rate since the start of the 2012 season, though he does generate his share of ground balls (career 48.9% grounder rate) to make up for a lack of strikeouts.

Rockies Place Chris Owings On 10-Day IL, Designate Phillip Diehl, Select Alan Trejo

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The Rockies announced that utilityman Chris Owings has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left thumb sprain.  Infielder Alan Trejo has had his contract selected and will replace Owings on the active roster.  In a corresponding move to create 40-man roster space, southpaw Phillip Diehl has been designated for assignment.

After a respectable .268/.318/.439 slash line over only 44 plate appearances with Colorado in 2020, Owings re-signed another minor league deal to return for another season in the Mile High City.  In the small sample size of 17 PA this season, Owings was off to a roaring start, with a 1.722 OPS and three triples.  The thumb sprain is a new injury, as Owings had been battling a hamstring problem in recent days and the Rockies were hopeful that he was going to avoid the IL for that particular issue.

Owings has already bounced around the diamond, making starts as a second baseman, center fielder, and right fielder over his seven games played.  Trejo can replace at least some of that versatility, as the 24-year-old has gotten a lot of time at second base, third base, and shortstop over his brief pro career.  A 16th-round pick out of San Diego State in the 2017 draft, Trejo hit .275/.323/.434 over 1163 PA in Colorado’s farm system, reaching the Double-A level in 2019 before the minor league season was canceled in 2020.  After working out and playing at the Rockies’ alternate training site last season, Trejo is now set to make his Major League debut.

Diehl may be best known as the player acquired by the Rockies in the Mike Tauchman trade of March 2019, a swap that looked like a steal for the Yankees in the wake of Tauchman’s 2019 numbers.  Diehl has recorded a lot of strikeouts (30.51% strikeout rate) and posted a 3.34 ERA over 253 career minor league innings, though he ran into home run trouble pitching with the Rockies’ affiliate in Albuquerque during the homer-happy 2019 minor league season.  Diehl has also been hurt by the long ball during his brief MLB career, as his three homers allowed during his 13 1/3 innings with the Rockies in 2019-20 was a big reason behind his 8.78 ERA.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies traded one of the best players in franchise history without adding much in the way of major league talent this offseason. That would seem to indicate the franchise is headed for a full rebuild, but they’ve held onto the rest of their top players so far.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Extensions

None

Notable Minor-League Signings

Notable Losses

The Rockies began the 2020 season red hot but fell off just as sharply, losing 31 of their final 46 games. Ultimately, Colorado’s 26-34 record was a slight step back from their 71-91 finish the year before, nowhere near the 94-win pace owner Dick Monfort boldly predicted last February. Back-to-back down years set the stage for change this winter.

For the second consecutive year, much of the focus on the Rockies’ offseason revolved around Nolan Arenado. The star third baseman signed a seven-year, $234MM contract extension in February 2019. Less than a year later, though, Arenado made plenty of headlines when he voiced frustration with organizational leadership, telling reporters in January 2020 he felt “disrespected” by the front office. That didn’t stop Arenado from sticking in Denver for the season, but there was plenty of speculation about the 29-year-old potentially being on the move last winter after another losing season.

Arenado did wind up traded, although that wasn’t an inevitable outcome. His lofty contract presented a challenge for potential buyers on the heels of a season with lost gate revenues. Making matters worse, Arenado was coming off by far the worst offensive season of his career, having slumped to a .253/.303/.434 line while battling a shoulder injury.

Still, Arenado’s elite track record attracted plenty of reported interest. The Mets, Braves and Dodgers were among the clubs that either spoke with the Rockies or were speculated as potential fits (although Colorado never seemed likely to send him to their division rivals in Los Angeles). Ultimately, it wound up being the Cardinals that pulled the trigger on an Arenado deal in late January.

The Rockies got five players back from St. Louis, none of whom looks to be a potential franchise-changing talent. Southpaw Austin Gomber is the most famous, having pitched to a 3.72 ERA/4.62 SIERA over 104 career MLB innings. He is capable of stepping right into the big league rotation. But as a 27-year-old with below-average velocity and swinging strike rates, Gomber profiles as a back-of-the-rotation type.

The other four players in the Arenado deal have yet to reach the majors. Corner infielder Elehuris Montero was once a top 100 prospect; the powerful 22-year-old now sits eighth in the Colorado farm system, per Baseball America. Fellow infielder Mateo Gil and right-hander Tony Locey are a little further down the organizational rankings, while righty Jake Sommers did not make the Rockies’ top 30.

Arenado’s contract and lackluster 2020 numbers made it unlikely the Rockies would be able to bring back an elite young player in a trade. Nevertheless, the return they ultimately received felt light, especially given the financial hoops the team had to jump through to push the deal across the finish line. Colorado agreed to pay down $51MM of Arenado’s contract, including his entire $35MM salary for 2021. Meanwhile, the Cardinals agreed to guarantee an extra year on the eight-time Gold Glove winner’s contract and permit him to opt-out of the deal after 2022 (in addition to his previous post-2021 opt-out opportunity) in exchange for Arenado waiving his no-trade clause.

Without knowing what other offers were on the table, it’s impossible to say the Rockies should’ve taken a different return from another organization. It’s likely Colorado values the players they received more highly than public prospect rankers and observers do. But the Arenado saga seems to reflect poorly on the team, however one feels about the player’s public comments. Angering the face of the franchise to such an extent the organization feels compelled to trade him while his value is at its nadir is surely an outcome nobody with the Rockies would’ve foreseen or desired when signing him to a mega-extension less than two years before.

Arenado’s departure was the most significant of the winter, but he wasn’t the only familiar face to leave town. The Rockies non-tendered catcher Tony Wolters and outfielder David Dahl last November. Moving on from Wolters wasn’t unexpected. Colorado stuck by him for a while based on his defense and clubhouse presence, but the 28-year-old has simply never hit at an acceptable level.

The latter cut was more surprising. Dahl has dealt with myriad injuries and was terrible in 2020, but he’d been an above-average hitter between 2017-19. Projected for an arbitration salary in the $2.5MM range, he’d have certainly been affordable enough to keep around. Ultimately, it seems the front office just wanted to give opportunities to other players.

With Dahl gone, the Rockies will turn to a combination of Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, Garrett Hampson and Yonathan Daza in the outfield. Blackmon has a long track record of high-end hitting, although he fell off precipitously down the stretch last season after a blistering start. The rest of the group is looking to establish themselves as core pieces for the future. Tapia, Daza and Hampson are contact-oriented speedsters, while Hilliard has huge power but needs to rein in his strikeout totals.

Wolters’ departure leaves just two catchers on the 40-man roster. The season-opening job belongs to returnees Elias Díaz and Dom Nuñez, although an injury and/or underperformance could open the door for José Briceño, who inked a minors contract over the offseason.

Another pair of minor-league signees have easier paths to playing time on the infield. C.J. Cron and Chris Owings had their contracts selected to the 40-man roster prior to Opening Day. Cron has some on-base deficiencies but brings plenty of power, so the appeal of adding him to Coors Field is obvious. At the very least, he should be an upgrade over the Rockies’ first basemen of the past few years. No team got less production at the position from 2018-20, where the now-retired Daniel Murphy and Ian Desmond (who has opted out of the 2021 season over COVID-19 concerns) failed to live up to multi-year free agent contracts.

Owings will get some early-season run at second base. Top prospect Brendan Rodgers finally seemed in line for everyday playing time, but a hamstring strain in Spring Training will sideline him at least into late April. Once Rodgers returns, Owings figures to work in a utility role. Third base belongs to a combination of Josh Fuentes and Ryan McMahon.

Perhaps the most interesting storyline of the coming months is how the team will handle star shortstop Trevor Story. The 28-year-old is on track to be one of the top players on next winter’s free agent market, so Story looks like an obvious trade candidate on paper. That was also true over the winter though, particularly after the Arenado deal. Yet general manager Jeff Bridich shot down speculation about an offseason Story trade and pushed back against the notion the franchise was embarking on a full-scale teardown.

Indeed, the two-time All-Star opened the year in Colorado. A midseason deal still seems the most likely outcome but an acquiring team would no longer be able to tag Story with a qualifying offer next winter, likely reducing his value compared to what the Rockies could’ve received over the offseason. At the same time, the team and Story’s representatives had not discussed a potential extension as of late February. The Rockies’ lack of action while Story’s service clock ticks is rather puzzling, but it’s conceivable they can salvage the situation with a midseason trade if he performs up to expectations over the first few months.

There’s a case to be made for the Rockies to trade off a few key pitchers, as well. Like Story, Jon Gray is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. He looked like a speculative offseason trade candidate but his name didn’t come up in any substantive rumors. Gray had a terrible 2020 season, so there’s plenty of logic for the Rockies in hoping he can rehabilitate his value with a decent start this year.

The situation isn’t as urgent for Opening Day starter Germán Márquez, but there’s a case to be made for Colorado to move him as well. Márquez is one of the game’s more underrated arms. He throws in the mid-90’s with a pair of plus breaking balls, has had plenty of success despite a brutal home environment for pitchers, and just turned 26 years old. Márquez is also reasonably controlled through 2024 under the extension he signed two years ago. That makes him a potential franchise building block, but he’s also the organization’s most valuable potential trade piece. A deal doesn’t seem especially likely given Bridich’s comments about avoiding a full rebuild, but there’s an argument to be made for putting him on the block this summer.

Márquez and Gray will be followed in the rotation by Gomber and holdover Antonio Senzatela. Kyle Freeland would’ve gotten a starting spot but a shoulder strain led to a season-opening IL stint. Freeland’s injury might’ve played a role in the Rockies’ decision to sign Jhoulys Chacín to a one-year deal on the evening before Opening Day. The right-hander returns to Colorado on the only guaranteed free agent contract the Rockies gave out all offseason.

There wasn’t a whole lot of turnover in the bullpen. The club did bring in the hard-throwing Robert Stephenson as part of a deal that sent Jeff Hoffman to the Reds. Stephenson and Hoffman are both one-time top prospects who showed flashes of promise but generally hadn’t lived up to expectations with their previous teams, so it’s something of a challenge trade. Rule 5 draftee Jordan Sheffield is the only other outside addition to the current bullpen, which will lean heavily on returnees Daniel Bard, Tyler Kinley, Yency Almonte and Mychal Givens. Unfortunately, former closer Scott Oberg might not be able to continue his career after a setback with persistent blood clots in his throwing arm.

The 2021 season doesn’t figure to be an especially enjoyable one for Rockies’ fans. The current roster comprises mostly unproven youngsters, journeymen and bounce back hopefuls. Bridich may bristle at the notion of a full-on rebuild, but the Rockies aren’t in position to keep up with the powerhouse Dodgers and Padres at the top of the division. Rather, public projections suggest they’re likely to finish last in the NL West (and near the bottom of MLB as a whole).

Perhaps more important to the organization than their place in the 2021 standings is whether they can rebuild a culture that, at least from the outside, seems to have gone sour. Arenado’s vocal displeasure with franchise leadership was the most visible example of frustrations, but the Rockies appear to have issues far beyond their spat with the former face of the franchise.

Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of the Athletic published a lengthy piece last month that details mounting frustrations among some players and lower-level front office members with a few of Monfort’s and Bridich’s roster decisions and their perceived lack of communication of the organization’s long-term vision. Rosenthal and Groke also question whether the Rockies’ analytics department, which saw the departures of four of its six staffers over the winter, is properly equipped to help Monfort and Bridich build a sustainable winner moving forward. The article is well worth reading in full for Rockies’ fans who haven’t yet perused it.

How does the MLBTR readership feel about the course the Rockies charted this winter? (poll link for app users)

 

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