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Archives for January 2016

Free Agent Notes: Nats, Lazarito, Bell, O’s, Hunter, Mets

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The Nationals have filed an interesting affidavit in their litigation against the Orioles (via MASN) relating to the arbitration on the value of their television rights fees, as James Wagner of the Washington Post notes. Seeking to help convince the judge to order the O’s back to a league-run arbitration panel, Washington owner Ed Cohen said of the lack of market-rate revenue: “[W]ithout this added and steady income, the Nationals cannot bring full economic confidence to investments in multi-year player contracts to keep up with the fierce competition for top players — especially when such control over finances is in the hands of a neighboring club.” It’s interesting to see some insight, however vague, into the team’s thinking on the matter, although it’s hard to know just how much impact there’s been in actuality on the team’s willingness and ability to offer contracts to free agents.

Here are some notes on a few free agents (or those who’ll soon formally join the open market):

  • Intriguing young Cuban talent Lazaro Armenteros (aka “Lazarito”) expects to have a deal in place within the next two weeks, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. He’s in negotiations with some teams even as he finishes up workouts with others, says Rosenthal. The 16-year-old is seen as an intriguing athlete, though there have also been some less-than-sterling reviews.
  • The showcase for Cuban outfielder Alexei Bell will now take place on February 15th in Mexico City, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. The veteran star is hoping to catch on with a major league organization.
  • Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun takes a look at the Orioles’ current possibilities for adding an outfielder. Dexter Fowler doesn’t seem to be an option, given the need to punt the club’s top draft pick, but he wonders whether Austin Jackson or a left-handed-hitting platoon option such as David Murphy or Will Venable could be in the cards. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com does the same with regard to starting pitching, providing an excellent breakdown of the internal possibilities and potential targets.
  • Free agent reliever Tommy Hunter is still looking for a second guaranteed year, Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com tweets. He’s certainly one of the better names left on a slowing relief market, though it might still be a tall order to reach a multi-year pact. Hunter has largely posted solid results since moving to the pen full-time, but struggled badly with the long ball late last year.
  • At this point, the Mets are realistically only looking at relievers on minor league deals, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. That makes sense, as the club already had to push a solid pitcher in Carlos Torres off of the roster after signing Antonio Bastardo.

Braves, Nationals, Padres Expected To Exceed 2016-17 International Pools

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The Braves, Nationals, and Padres are all expected to bust their international spending allocations for the upcoming July 2 period, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. With many other clubs serving the first or second year of their own bans on doling out $300K+ bonuses to pool-eligible players, and other organizations not heavily invested internationally, it appears these three clubs are prepared to enter the void.

As Badler explains, the teams don’t yet know exactly how much cash they’ll have to spread, but the general spending capacity won’t come as a surprise since it’s based on prior year’s record. Teams can also acquire individual spending allotments from other clubs via trade, and with many organizations unable to spend all of their slots, there should be plenty available. But a club can only increase its total allocation by 50%, so even adding in some new capacity presumably won’t keep the teams from avoiding the penalties.

The disincentive for going over the pool, of course, is a 100% tax on overages above 10% as well as up to a two-year timeout (after a 15% excess) on future bonuses of over $300K. But it’s long been expected that changes could be coming to the international amateur market — as commissioner Rob Manfred just addressed yesterday — and it’s certainly possible (but hardly certain) that budget-busting organizations won’t end up being handicapped under a new system.

Atlanta, especially, is expected to attack the market, per Badler. He says that the rebuilding organization is lining up a series of signings that could equal or exceed the Yankees’ spree from 2014-15. Their biggest targets are top-shelf infield prospect Kevin Maitan and fellow Venezuelan standout Abrahan Gutierrez, a catcher.

Meanwhile, the Nats are looking to build on their success at low-budget international signings with some real cash at their disposal. A pair of middle infielders — Dominican Yasel Antuna and Venezuelan Jose Sanchez — are near the top of their list.

Likewise, the Padres have not only been laying the groundwork for a series of deals with Dominican and Venezuelan players in the $1MM range, but are eyeing a major strike on the burgeoning market for young Cuban talent. Badler says that the San Diego organization is attempting to convince several players who may soon become free agents to wait for the new signing period to ink their deals.

Indians Agree To Two-Year Deal With Josh Tomlin

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The Indians have reached a two-year contract extension with righty Josh Tomlin, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports (Twitter links). The SSG Baseball client will receive a $5.5MM guarantee in the deal, which includes a club option for a third campaign.

Josh Tomlin

Tomlin had already agreed to a $2.25MM, fully guaranteed salary for the coming season, and that remains intact. The new deal will buy up Tomlin’s first season of free agent eligibility and give the club a $3MM option (with a $750K buyout) on another.

The deal could top out at $12MM over three seasons. Tomlin is guaranteed the aforementioned $2.25MM, then a modest raise to $2.5MM for 2017 to go with the buyout on the option. He can also reach a variety of incentives in 2017 and 2018, potentially reaching $2MM per year, based on games started and innings pitched, Hoynes adds on Twitter.

It seems clear that Tomlin, 31, prioritized the maximization of guaranteed money after a strong showing in limited MLB action last year. He’s bounced up and down a fair bit, never quite sticking in the majors, and the opportunity to cash in was surely worth the sacrifice of some upside.

Tomlin worked 65 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA pitching in his 10 starts in 2015, putting up a solid 7.8 K/9 and outstanding 1.1 BB/9 in that time. He benefited from a low BABIP and high strand rate, and continued to post low ground-ball rates and a troubling predilection to the long ball, but xFIP and SIERA still quite liked the effort. Furthermore, the 2015 campaign marked the second straight season in which Tomlin showed a newfound ability to record strikeouts at an above-average rate. Tomlin’s career 4.9 K/9 rate jumped to 8.1 in 2014, and he was able to sustain much of the improvement in that area this past season.

Anything approaching that output would make this contract a clear win for the Indians. The club is locking in a low rate of pay for a useful pitcher who could factor in the rotation or the pen. And adding a year of non-committed, cheap control is a rare chance. While Tomlin lacks a clear track record of major league success, it’s a relatively easy bet to make for the club.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Rockies Outfielders

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With Gerardo Parra on board, the Rockies have four left-handed-hitting outfielders. A trade may not be inevitable, but it isn’t hard to see how one would make sense, particularly given that Colorado is still in need of pitching. Here’s the latest:

  • It may be that Corey Dickerson, rather than Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon, could be the likeliest player to be traded, a report from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports suggests (Twitter links). There’s a sense from some in the game, he says, that the 26-year-old may be on the move this winter, due in part to the fact that he might not cost as much as his more established teammates.
  • Though he hasn’t even yet cracked 1,000 MLB plate appearances, Dickerson does appear to offer the greatest value upside of the three trade candidates. That’s due in large part to the fact that he’s cheaper and subject to greater control than are the other two. But he also has shown some serious potential with the bat, putting up a .299/.345/.534 slash that is quite impressive even with Coors Field as a home park. On the other hand, defensive metrics haven’t been in love with his glove.
  • As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported, and Rosenthal echoes, the Rays are still involved in chatter with Colorado. Topkin adds that he believes left-handed reliever Jake McGee could be the key name involved in talks from Tampa Bay’s side. That’s certainly an interesting development, as the Rockies have already done some bullpen work this winter and seem more in need of rotation help. Of course, there’s still room for improvement there and McGee is a premium arm. Notably, too, Topkin adds that the addition of Dickerson would likely force the Rays to pursue additional moves.

Free Agent Faceoff: Ian Desmond vs. Howie Kendrick

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If your club is in need of some veteran middle infield talent, the market begins with two names: Ian Desmond and Howie Kendrick. The former is a shortstop and the latter a second baseman, and neither has really spent much big league time at other positions, so they aren’t exactly direct competitors. But it’s still interesting to consider which qualifying offer-bound free agent is best situated to cash in at this stage of the winter.

It long seemed like Desmond would be the more hotly pursued of the two players. He offers a rare power/speed combination for a shortstop and has been one of the game’s most valuable players at the position — including a .264/.317/.443 slash and over twenty home runs per season — since breaking out in 2012.

Desmond is also a more valuable defender than most realize. He’s received average metrics, give or take, with his strong range and powerful arm helping to make up for a steady helping of errors. And Desmond is not only a solid stolen base threat, but a highly-rated overall baserunner.

At 30 years of age, the highly-respected Desmond seems well-situated to cash in. There’s no denying that 2015 was a down year. After rating as a 3.5 to 4.5 WAR player for each of the three prior seasons, Desmond accumulated just 2.0 rWAR and 1.7 fWAR as he struggled at the plate and in the field. On the other hand, that doesn’t look like a terrible downside scenario, and the highly athletic veteran ought to age well physically. I predicted he’d have to settle for $70MM to secure a fifth guaranteed year, while MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes felt he could reach $80MM over that term.

Kendrick is a bit older at 32, and plays the less valuable position defensively. But if Desmond feels like a player whose upside comes with some risk, then Kendrick seems to be a steadier option — at least at the plate.

While he’s never put up a monster offensive season, Kendrick owns a .289/.332/.418 slash since becoming a full-time regular in 2010. And he’s never strayed too far from that line:  Kendrick has been a more-or-less league-average or better hitter in each of the last nine seasons. While he’s more of a 10/10 than a 20/20 type, he has topped out at 18 home runs and 14 stolen bases.

Kendrick has generally been a steady defender, with most of his campaigns ending in the black in the estimation of UZR and DRS, though he did slip in that regard last year. His baserunning isn’t an asset, overall, but isn’t a hindrance either.

In the aggregate, Kendrick offers reasonable expectations of being a quality, first-division regular. And when the stars have aligned, as in 2011 and 2014, he’s been even more than that. He ended 2015 with injury issues, and while they don’t figure to linger, that did seem to take some momentum out of his market. Dierkes predicted that Kendrick would be able to score four years and $50MM on the open market.

As always, demand is critical. We’ve heard varying degrees of interest from various clubs in both players. But clearly, neither has been targeted as strongly as might have been hoped. Then again, while there’s always a danger for a player of the music stopping with no chairs left, both Desmond and Kendrick seem to have plausible landing spots. The question, though, is how much leverage they’ll have to command the deals that were originally expected.

So, which player do you think is the more valuable free agent asset as things stand in the market?

Free Agent Notes: Fowler, Gallardo, Mets, Williams

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MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince takes a crack at identifying the likeliest landing spots for outfielder Dexter Fowler. He likes the White Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Rangers and Cubs as the most plausible destinations. Castrovince ticks through a few other possibilities, including the Indians, who he says may not be able to afford the veteran. But Cleveland has a pretty significant need for an outfield bat, and I wonder if the team could squeeze him in with a backloaded contract structure. It’s worth recalling, too, that the organization has found money late in the offseason previously, although it’s also true that the remnants of the resulting deals (with the since-traded Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher) make for a fairly significant payroll constraint at present.

Let’s check in on a few other free agents that have yet to sign:

  • The Rockies aren’t “especially aggressive” at present in their pursuit of free agent righty Yovani Gallardo, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. He had previously suggested that Colorado may be a finalist for Gallardo’s services, but now says it is not clear how serious the club is about chasing Gallardo. The veteran remains the most established starter left on the market.
  • The Mets are still interested in adding to their bullpen, but probably not at the price that Tyler Clippard is likely to command, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. Puma previously tweeted that New York was keeping an eye on Tommy Hunter, but was not looking to go past a one-year deal. Hunter, though, has been looking for more.
  • Righty Jerome Williams will miss time early in the year after undergoing a procedure on his Achilles tendon, Cotillo tweets. The 34-year-old hurler has logged better than 100 innings in each of the last four seasons, and could still hold appeal as a swingman/depth option.

AL Central Notes: Gordon, Perez, Torres, Sox

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Alex Gordon explained his decision to return to the Royals in an appearance today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter links via host Casey Stern). Interestingly, he noted that “it was a difficult offseason being a free agent,” perhaps referencing the large number of high-quality players that joined him on the market. Ultimately, while other organizations “definitely showed interest,” Gordon said his “number one goal” from the start was to return to Kansas City.

Here are a few more notes from the AL Central:

  • We’ve heard previously of some mutual interest between the Royals and catcher Salvador Perez in a new contract, and Jon Heyman tweets that the club is “quietly trying to re-work/extend” his contract with the club. Perez can be controlled already through 2019, via successive options, for a grand total of just $13.75MM (including this coming season). That obviously leaves ample leverage with the club, particularly since Perez has been worked hard through his age-25 season. It’s not clear what kind of arrangement might work for the team, but I’d speculate that it could involve the introduction of some guaranteed money in exchange for additional option years.
  • The Twins may be interested in Mets reliever Carlos Torres, who currently sits in DFA limbo, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). He’s only owed $1.05MM through arbitration this year and his peripherals suggest that last year’s 4.68 ERA may have been a bit unlucky, so it’s not difficult to see the appeal for a Minnesota club that could stand to deepen its pen.
  • The White Sox seem to have allowed the outfield market to pass by without striking, Jim Margalus of SB Nation opines. He wonders whether the Adam LaRoche contract may be a larger obstacle than had been presumed. Of course, it is fair to note that Dexter Fowler, Austin Jackson, and a variety of platoon players remain available — to say nothing of the possibility of a trade — so there’s time yet for GM Rick Hahn to pursue upgrades.

West Notes: Rosario, Lincecum, Blackmon, Athletics

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The Astros organization is mourning the loss of 20-year-old pitcher Jose Rosario, who died in a motorcycle accident yesterday evening in his native Dominican Republic. Rosario pitched in the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League last year. The organization’s international director Oz Ocampo praised Rosario as “a beloved member of the Astros Latin American program.” Ocampo continued: “He will be remembered as a long, lanky-framed pitcher with tremendous ability, an outgoing personality and an ever-positive disposition. He was a true student of the game and was constantly looking to learn and improve his abilities. He was also a supportive teammate, as he made it a point to encourage his fellow Astros and deliver that message with a smile on his face. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Rosario family.” We here at MLBTR join in that message.

Here are the latest notes from the game’s western divisions:

  • The Padres are interested in free agent righty Tim Lincecum, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. He notes that the Marlins also are continuing to look at the former Giants star, along with other teams, as he readies for a planned February showcase after undergoing hip surgery last year.
  • Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon says he was surprised that the team decided to bring in yet another left-handed outfield bat in Gerardo Parra, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. “I was little perplexed at first,” said Blackmon. “Because I didn’t really see it coming. Going into the offseason, I didn’t know that was in play, really. But after looking at it, he’s a great player. I’ve played against him, seen him play. He’s got one of the best arms in the league. He can only make our team better.” Blackmon, of course, continues to draw trade chatter, all the more so after the Parra signing, but he said he’s not bothered by the rumors — while rightly noting that it’s always “good to be relevant.”
  • Athletics closer Sean Doolittle says he is ready to go for spring camp without any restrictions after dealing with shoulder issues last year, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. “I promised I wouldn’t tell anybody I’m in the best shape of my life because I’ll never be 21 again,” said Doolittle. “But I think this is the most important offseason of my career, and I’ve been going about it with that mentality.”
  • Meanwhile, the Athletics aren’t yet sure what to expect from outfielder Coco Crisp, Slusser adds. Though he’s beginning to swing the bat, it isn’t yet clear how he’ll bounce back from an injury-plagued 2015. DH Billy Butler is another question mark, but he says he’s “got a lot left in the tank,” as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Butler will look to build upon a solid final month in an otherwise forgettable season. “I’m in good shape. I’m strong. Everything’s great,” he said. “I know what the expectations are, so let’s go out there and do it. I’ve prepared this winter to do that.”
  • It sounds like extension talks could soon take place between the Athletics and outfielder Josh Reddick, and GM David Forst said that the team intends to try to find ground for a multi-year deal, as SB Nation’s Jeremy Koo writes. Oakland “will make an effort at” a deal, said Forst. He added that Reedick has “kind of become the face of our team; somewhat the drive and energy of the club.”

Manfred On International Draft, Expansion, DH, CBA

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We’re just over one year into the official tenure of Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred, and the (relatively) newly appointed executive took some time to chat with Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports and with Jerry Crasnick of ESPN to reflect on his first year in that role. While I’d recommend reading each Q&A in its entirety — Manfred offers interesting thoughts on matters such as his leadership style, interaction with collegiate baseball, and the future of MLB Advanced Media — here are some particularly relevant highlights from the pair of interviews …

  • Manfred tells Passan that he is still “one hundred percent” in favor of adding an international draft in the future. “I just think you’ve got to follow the fundamentals on this one,” Manfred explained. “Getting into a single method of entry into the industry will be the most effective in terms of promoting competitive balance.” Manfred didn’t commit to a firm timeline in terms of implementing the draft, but Manfred has spoken in the past about the fact that the influx of high-priced Cuban free agents has “put a stress test” on the international bonus system that was collectively bargained in the last wave of negotiations. While adding an international draft in the upcoming CBA is an ambitious goal, it doesn’t strike me as far-fetched to have a framework drawn up for the following round of negotiations.
  • Both Passan and Crasnick asked Manfred about the possibility of eventually expanding beyond the 30 teams currently in the league, and Manfred spoke in favor of doing so. “We’re a growth business,” he told Passan. “Sooner or later, growth businesses expand. Having said that, I do not have a timetable. It’s not a short-term project for us.” Crasnick asked, more specifically, about the possibility of expanding internationally, and Manfred told him that there are indeed international sites that “would be intriguing” as the league looked to expand. However, Manfred also noted that expansion is “not a this-week or this-year issue,” rather characterizing the concept as a longer-term goal.
  • Manfred said that he did not mean to invite speculation about the addition of the DH to the National League in some recent comments. “The most likely result on the designated hitter for the foreseeable future is the status quo,” he told Crasnick. “I know [Cardinals general manager] John Mozeliak talked about it, and when you have any National League club talking about it, it’s interesting. But I think the vast majority of clubs in the National League want to stay where they are.” As Manfred went on to note to Passan, it’s important to remember that the DH issue is something that could (but may not) come up in the upcoming collective bargaining talks.
  • As for the CBA more generally, Manfred called himself “a CBA optimist” and said he expects to find common ground with the player’s association. “We’ve developed a strong and mature relationship with the MLBPA,” he told Crasnick. “I think the players are doing great, and the owners are happy with the economics. I think there’s enough money in the game that we can find a way to make a new agreement.” When asked by Passan whether a work stoppage would be on the horizon, Manfred said he’d “do everything humanly possible to make sure that doesn’t happen.”
  • Regarding the as-yet-untested domestic violence policy reached between the league and the players, Manfred provided some interesting background. The decision was made to pursue a collectively bargained arrangement, he said, in order to ensure a “complete approach to the issue” and also because “collectively bargained policies in disciplinary areas generally have more acceptance among the players because they provide them with certain safeguards that our players have been used to over time.”

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