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Free Agent Profile: Dexter Fowler

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Like a few other free agents, Dexter Fowler finds himself back on the market after failing to land the long-term pact he sought last winter. He can expect to do much better this time around.

Pros/Strengths

Fowler, 30, has never really been thought of as a premium hitter, and in truth he isn’t. But he is a somewhat under-rated, consistently above-average batsman who features a seemingly sustainable skillset at the plate. And he’s coming off of a career year.

Since the start of the 2011 season, Fowler has taken 3,331 plate appearances in the majors. His .271/.371/.428 batting line in that span works out to a 113 OPS+, and he has landed within 13 percentage points of that mark in every one of those seasons. If there was a swing, it may have occurred last year, when he posted a personal-best .276/.393/.447 slash.

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That consistency is reflected all the more in Fowler’s plate discipline. He has struck out at around the league-average rate for his career (22.2%), but drawn quite a few walks (12.6%), and has never wavered much in either regard. Again, last year was arguably his best in this arena, as he walked in a career-best 14.3% of his plate appearances.

Though his power has bounced around somewhat, and his 2016 output was driven in part by a .350 BABIP (not an atypical mark in his case), Fowler’s overall track record with the bat suggests he’s an excellent bet to continue trucking along as a productive hitter. He knows how to take a free pass; his batted-ball profile is remarkably steady; and he’s coming off of a year in which he both chased pitches out of the zone and swung and missed at the lowest rates of his career.

There’s some recent good news on the defensive side, too. Long rated as a below-average performer in center, Fowler drew solidly average marks from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating in 2016. While nobody will buy into him as a difference-maker up the middle, it’s certainly possible that teams will still believe they can get a few seasons of plausible glovework in center.

Indeed, Fowler has shown no signs of a general drop in athleticism. He has typically drawn strong reviews on the bases, and that was never more true than in 2016. As usual, he wasn’t a huge stolen-base threat — he swiped 13 bags last year — but nevertheless ranked eighth among qualifying hitters in overall baserunning value, by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR.

In the aggregate, Fowler was worth between four and five wins above replacement in 2016, amply justifying his first All-Star selection.

Cons/Weaknesses

Of course, qualifying for the mid-summer classic is driven by first-half production, and Fowler’s power did fall off somewhat down the stretch, as he slugged .408 over his final 61 games. That ties into one of the largest questions facing his free agent case: is he, or is he not, a center fielder capable of delivering average-or-better power for at least a reasonable portion of a new contract?

In terms of pop, Fowler has never been much of a home run threat, and his 13 dingers from a year ago seem to represent a reasonable expectation moving forward. He delivered a .171 isolated slugging mark in 2016, and landed right at league average the prior year (.161), but posted sub-par marks in the two preceding campaigns (.122 in 2014 with the Astros and .145 in 2013 with the Rockies). Any erosion in that arena, or a drop in his lofty career .342 BABIP, could significantly reduce Fowler’s value even if he can largely maintain his healthy walk totals.

That’s all the more relevant given the questions over Fowler’s efficacy up the middle. Both DRS and UZR have largely panned his glovework over his career, excepting 2016. Though he isn’t particularly error-prone, Fowler has typically rated poorly in terms of range and throwing ability. While it’s arguable that he faced tough defensive assignments in Coors Field and Minute Maid Park, there are certainly questions as to whether and how long Fowler can passably roam the middle of the outfield.

If you take the pessimistic view, then, Fowler could be seen as a marginal power source that is limited to left field — a position he has never played in the majors. Plus, there are at least some durability questions. Fowler has never missed huge swaths of time, but has averaged only 131 games annually since breaking in as a regular in 2009. And he has only once topped 600 plate appearances (in 2015, his first year with the Cubs).

An additional factor worth considering is that the switch-hitting Fowler has typically fared better against left-handed pitching, the short side of the platoon split. He has been just fine against righties — compiling a lifetime .255/.356/.413 lifetime batting line — but any drop in overall productivity at the plate could leave him as a sub-optimal roster piece.

Personal

Fowler and his wife, Darya, have one daughter. A Georgia native, Fowler signed with the Rockies out of high school after being taken in the 14th round of the 2004 draft.

Fowler appeared in the 2008 Olympics for the U.S. national team and broke into the majors that same year. He was ultimately dealt to the Astros (in exchange for Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes) and then on to the Cubs (for Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily). Fowler reportedly nearly signed with the Orioles last winter before returning to Chicago.

Market

While he comes with draft compensation attached once again, Fowler appears to have a wide array of possible suitors. That likely won’t include the Cubs — even if they aren’t ruling it out — now that the team has added Jon Jay to the fold.

Several organizations are in need of help up the middle, including the Cardinals, Nationals, Rangers, and Indians. Any could make good fits, possibly planning to utilize him in center for part of the deal before eventually shifting him to left. The Mets, too, potentially still have a need in center, though that would be contingent upon a lot of other moving parts with Yoenis Cespedes re-signing.

There are other teams that might like the idea of installing Fowler’s high-OBP bat in the lineup while trying out his glove in left. That Fowler is capable of playing center also makes him a possible part-time option there — a scenario that might make particular sense for the Giants, Mariners, and even the Dodgers, who could spell Denard Span, Leonys Martin, and Joc Pederson (respectively) at least on occasion against left-handed pitching. A similar arrangement could make sense for the Blue Jays, who utilize light-hitting defensive stalwart Kevin Pillar up the middle, though he hits from the right side.

There are a few additional organizations that could conceivably get involved. The Athletics have a hole in center, though Fowler figures to be too expensive; likewise, the White Sox would make sense, but that is heavily dependent upon what course their offseason takes. The Orioles need another corner piece. And the Phillies might still utilize Howie Kendrick at second if they trade Cesar Hernandez.

It is important to bear in mind that there are alternatives, even with Jay somewhat surprisingly snapped up by the Cubs. Several notable players could be had via trade, and the open market still includes Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez as center field options.

Expected Contract

While he is hardly a flawless player, that’s not necessary to strike it rich in free agency. Fowler profiles as a solid regular, and certainly seems to have a better case than did Josh Reddick — who just signed with the Astros for $52MM over four years. We’re predicting a four-year, $64MM contract for Fowler.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Edwin Encarnacion’s Market

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TODAY, 9:13pm: In further comments, Kinzer says that he does not expect a deal to be completed before the Winter Meetings, though he notes that could change if the right offer hits the table. (Via Mark Berman of FOX 26; Twitter links.)

While there has been some internet chatter suggesting that there’s a deal in place with the Astros, Kinzer denies the rumors. As Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeted, there is nothing in place with Houston. Still, Kinzer does tell Berman that the Astros are a “great fit” from Encarnacion’s perspective, and acknowledges that there is interest from the team.

6:16pm: There’s “nothing imminent” on Encarnacion, Kinzer tells MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (links to Twitter). More than one team is still involved on the veteran slugger, per his agent, with multiple offers on the table.

The Astros and Yankees are believed still to be in the hunt, Morosi adds.

YESTERDAY: Edwin Encarnacion’s free agency may not last much longer, as the slugger’s agent, Paul Kinzer, told TSN’s Rick Westhead today that his client will probably agree to a contract later this week or early next week. Kinzer told Westhead that the Blue Jays remain in the picture and have been “showing Edwin the most love,” though the agent didn’t handicap any one team’s chances of getting a deal done. According to Kinzer, three teams have told him that they’re waiting for the resolution of the collective bargaining negotiations before making a formal offer. He added that two teams have made “serious” offers to Encarnacion already.

[Related: Edwin Encarnacion’s Free Agent Profile]

One team that doesn’t appear to be in the running for Encarnacion is the Red Sox, though, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes that a source has informed him that Boston “probably” won’t be a finalist for Encarnacion’s imposing bat. Boston remains focused on adding a shorter-term option to fill its DH vacancy, according to Bradford.

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported earlier today that the Astros bid big on Yoenis Cespedes before he agreed to return to the Mets, and his colleague, Jerry Crasnick, added that the Astros are still a possible landing spot for Encarnacion (Twitter links). While a big bid on Cespedes doesn’t necessarily indicate that the ’Stros are willing to make a market-beating offer for Encarnacion, their willingness to make a competitive bid for a player that agreed to a $110MM deal does suggest that they can at least afford to make a legitimate play for Encarnacion.

It remains unclear which teams have made the aforementioned serious offers to Encarnacion. The Blue Jays reportedly offered Encarnacion about $80MM over four years earlier this month, but that offer seems light to constitute the “serious” adjective utilized by Kinzer, considering the agent’s previous comments implying that a five-year deal and/or a $25MM annual value both seemed reasonable. Furthermore, Kinzer tells Westhead that he hasn’t talked dollars with Blue Jays brass since that initial proposal. The Yankees have also been connected to Encarnacion on multiple occasions, and the Rangers have reportedly reached out to Kinzer as well, though the extent of Texas’ interest isn’t known at this time.

Encarnacion, like most agents, should be reasonably expected to end up with the highest bidder, but Kinzer did imply that there will be other factors at play when speaking to Westhead. “We won’t put any restrictions on any offer like years or anything,” he explained. “[Encarnacion is] going to decide where he’s comfortable. One of the things we have to look at is the big difference in the tax base between some of the teams that are interested. Plus, there’s a comfort level we need to consider.”

League, Union Nearing CBA Agreement

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There’s said to be progress in collective bargaining talks, as the owners and union strive to reach agreement — or, at least, avoid a work stoppage — with the current CBA set to expire at midnight. As ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports, the league’s ownership has not scheduled a lockout vote, though the owners are on standby in the event that one is required, or if there’s a deal to be confirmed.

Here’s the latest:

  • A deal is close and could be finalized tonight, Rosenthal tweets. The meeting has adjourned with “handshakes all around,” MLB.com’s Richard Justice adds on Twitter.
  • The sides are “close” to hammering out a deal on the luxury tax system, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. That has been seen as one major obstacle. Given the overall movement, whether or not a final agreement is reached tonight, there’s now little chance of a lockout, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • It’s possible, of course, that the sides could simply decide to maintain the status quo while talks wrap up. If they haven’t seen eye to eye on everything, but see a path to a deal, that may well come to pass. In that event, the offseason business of baseball could carry on while the final issues are resolved. A lockout vote would be viewed as a drastic measure — “only if owners felt they were at point of no return” — at this point, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
  • We’re waiting to learn more on how things could be shaking out, and it seems there’s still quite a bit of variability in what form the qualifying offer system will take. One possibility, Rosenthal says, is that wealthy teams (i.e., those that pay into the revenue-sharing system) could sacrifice some draft position (say, five spots) if they sign a QO-declining free agent. Meanwhile, low-revenue organizations could sign such free agents without penalty. (Twitter links: 1; 2; 3; 4; 5.)
  • Also under consideration, per Rosenthal (via Twitter), are changes to the international signing system. While it seems that a draft is off the table at this point, it’s possible that teams could face a hard cap on total bonus outlays. Presumably, there would also be some increase in the total spending allotment, though that remains unclear.

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Nori Aoki

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The Astros agreed with outfielder Nori Aoki on a $5.5MM deal with him to avoid arbitration, according to Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). MLBTR had projected a $6.8MM salary for the veteran, so this represents a rather notable cost savings for the club.

While Aoki could have justifiably asked for a raise, the alternative was to test the open market. Though it’s possible he could have done as well or better there, he may simply have decided that he liked the price and the fit in Houston.

Soon to turn 35, Aoki was claimed off waivers from the Mariners earlier in the offseason. It wasn’t clear at the time whether the Astros would ultimately tender him a contract; yet more questions were raised when the club went out and added another left-handed-hitting corner outfielder in Josh Reddick.

It seems that Houston still likes the idea of utilizing Aoki in some kind of platoon. Presumably, he’ll share time with Yulieski Gurriel or some other right-handed hitter in left field.

Aoki has typically produced at just above the league-average rate, and that was true again last year in Seattle, as he put up a .283/.349/.388 slash over 467 plate appearances. He doesn’t typically carry platoon splits, and he has struck out in only eight percent of his trips to the plate in his career, making him a reliable — albeit somewhat unexciting — offensive presence.

Pirates Appear Likely To Trade Andrew McCutchen

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3:22pm: Pittsburgh is “actively shopping” McCutchen and “pursuing specific teams” it believes match up, per Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. In addition to the Nats and Rangers, the Pirates have spoken with the Mariners about a deal, per the report.

The Bucs “are looking primarily for prospects” in return for their long-time star. In the meantime, the team is also checking in with other teams on possible outfield trade targets, per Nesbitt’s colleague Bill Brink (via Twitter).

1:06pm: Andrew McCutchen’s name has been in the rumor circuit quite a bit this winter, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that “of all the big names available in trade, McCutchen might be the most likely to go.” Similarly, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that the odds of McCutchen returning to the Pirates in 2017 are “dwindling,” adding that the Bucs don’t have an ownership mandate to move McCutchen but nonetheless appear intent on doing so (Twitter links).

Pittsburgh is continuing to explore trade scenarios involving McCutchen, Rosenthal writes, and the Nationals remain interested after being unable to work out a deal to acquire McCutchen this past July. The Rangers, according to Rosenthal’s column, are another potential landing spot. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News expounds on numerous reasons that the Rangers profile as a poor fit for McCutchen — they’d like better defense in center, can’t part with an MLB asset like Rougned Odor or Nomar Mazara and lack the upper-level pitching talent the Bucs may covet — though the Pirates are also chatting with other clubs, Rosenthal notes.

McCutchen’s 2016 performance fell considerably shy of his sky-high standards on both sides of the ball, as he batted a pedestrian .256/.336/.430 and posted a -28 rating in Defensive Runs Saved and -18.7 in Ultimate Zone Rating. While the Pirates reportedly feel that McCutchen was positioned too shallow in 2016, thus accounting for some of the defensive downturn, Grant points out that both DRS and UZR have been down on the former NL MVP’s glovework for the past three seasons. Complicating matters for the Pirates, Rosenthal continues, is the fact that McCutchen has both publicly and privately expressed that he doesn’t want to move off of his natural position. The 30-year-old told MLB.com’s Adam Berry at season’s end that he “[doesn’t] see [himself] needing to move.”

McCutchen is entering the final guaranteed year of a six-year, $51.5MM contract extension that he signed prior to the 2012 season and is owed a $14MM salary next year. His contract also contains a $14.5MM club option that comes with a reasonable $1MM buyout. From that vantage point, McCutchen is eminently affordable (from a financial perspective) for nearly any team in Major League Baseball. For a player that batted .313/.404/.523 while averaging 25 homers and 19 steals per season from 2013-15, that’s certainly an appealing price tag, even if he’s coming off a down season.

The problem, however, is that it might be difficult to coerce teams into trading top-tier talent in exchange for the right to buy low on a once-MVP-caliber player. If there’s a concern among any interested team that McCutchen’s 2016 season was the beginning of a genuine decline at the plate and they feel he also needs to move to a corner spot, then parting with top-ranked minor league talent is a tall order. And that does seem to be the Pirates’ intent, as Rosenthal reported earlier this month that the Pirates asked the Nationals for outfield prospect Victor Robles — one of the top 25 prospects in all of baseball — in their July talks regarding McCutchen. That’s exactly who Pittsburgh is currently targeting, Rosenthal reports (Twitter links), with the team also seeking additional pieces (possibly including an upper-level pitching prospect) in a package.

If the Pirates do find a trade partner for McCutchen, it’d free them to move Starling Marte to center field, thereby upgrading the team’s defense. That’d create a hole in left field, but the Bucs could of course pursue an affordable stopgap to top prospect Austin Meadows, who could be ready to break into the Majors next summer. There’s no shortage of teams looking for help in the outfield, as the Orioles, Blue Jays, Giants, Dodgers, Phillies and Mariners are among the teams that could theoretically use an upgrade (in addition to the aforementioned Nationals and Rangers). Moving to acquire a player that might not be keen on shifting to a corner spot (where some of those teams would have to play him), though, just adds another layer of complexity in addition to agreeing on a price point for a player on whom the Pirates certainly would like to avoid selling low.

Latest Trade Talk Regarding Mets’ Outfielders

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Immediately following yesterday’s news that Yoenis Cespedes had agreed to re-sign with the Mets on a new four-year deal, speculation about the possibility of a Jay Bruce trade began. Reports earlier in the week had indicated that the Mets would try to trade Bruce in the event of a new Cespedes deal, but Newsday’s Marc Carig reports that Curtis Granderson is drawing more trade interest than Bruce in early talks. Per Carig, the Mets aren’t closed off entirely to the idea of moving Granderson over Bruce, but the decision will be influenced by the strength of the return they’d get in a Granderson deal. The Blue Jays are one team with interest in Granderson, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports that the Mets’ “overwhelmingly strong” preference is to move Bruce as opposed to one of Granderson, Michael Conforto or Juan Lagares (Twitter links). While the Mets have gotten calls on all four outfielders, DiComo conveys that the Mets have “made it clear” that neither Conforto nor Lagares will be going anywhere. The Tigers made an attempt at prying Conforto away from the Mets when they asked for him in return for J.D. Martinez prior to New York’s deal with Cespedes, Carig reports in his column, but that lopsided asking price predictably didn’t gain any traction with the Mets. (The Post’s Mike Puma notes that the the Mets still consider Conforto a building block moving forward even after his rough 2016 season.)

The financial difference between Bruce and Granderson isn’t especially great, with Bruce set to earn $13MM next year to Granderson’s $15MM. However, Granderson has been a quietly productive member of the Mets since signing his four-year, $60MM pact prior to the 2013 season, hitting a combined .241/.342/.436 and averaging 25 homers per season. While neither slugger has hit lefties whatsoever in recent years, Granderson is better-equipped than Bruce to handle center field despite being six years older. It should also be noted, of course, that Bruce’s tenure with the Mets was mostly a struggle. Though he caught fire late in the year and went 12-for-25 with four homers over his final eight games, Bruce batted just .219/.294/.391 as a member of the Mets, including a .174/.252/.285 skid prior to that eight-game heater to close out the year.

Rockies, Jordan Lyles Avoid Arbitration

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2:24pm: SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that the two sides settled on a $3.175MM salary.

12:35pm: The Rockies announced today that they’ve avoided arbitration with right-hander Jordan Lyles on a one-year deal. Terms of the contract weren’t disclosed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had pegged Lyles, a Ballengee Group client, for a $3.3MM salary in 2017.

Lyles, 26, missed the majority of the 2015 season with a foot injury and split the 2016 campaign between the Rockies and the team’s Triple-A affiliate. Formerly a starter with the Rockies and Astros (and a well-regarded prospect in the Houston farm system), Lyles shifted to a bullpen role for the bulk of this past season but struggled to a 5.83 ERA in 58 2/3 innings. Lyles averaged a career-low 4.9 strikeouts and averaged a career-high 4.3 walks per nine innings in his time at the big league level this past season. Those struggles led us to peg him as a potential non-tender candidate, but he’ll return despite his troubles. Lyles’ 51.5 percent ground-ball rate this past season was encouraging, as was the fact that he allowed just four homers in his 58 2/3 frames despite pitching at Coors Field. He also saw his fastball velocity trend upward, settling at a career-best average of 92.9 mph after moving into a short-relief role.

With five years and 21 days of big league service under his belt, Lyles is one year away from reaching the open market, so demonstrating some form of improvement next year will be of extra importance for the former No. 38 overall draft pick. With Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Chad Bettis, Jeff Hoffman, German Marquez and Eddie Butler all in the rotation mix, it might be difficult for Lyles to get back into a starting role in 2016. However, if he’s able to perform capably in a multi-inning relief role, he’d still boost his 2017-18 free agent stock nicely.

Athletics Sign Matt Joyce

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The Athletics announced on Wednesday that they’ve signed free agent outfielder Matt Joyce to a two-year contract, which will reportedly guarantee him $11MM in total. Joyce will earn $5MM in 2017 and $6MM in 2018.

Matt Joyce

The 32-year-old Joyce spent the 2016 campaign with the Pirates and rebounded nicely from a terrible 2015 season with the Angels. In 293 plate appearances with Pittsburgh, the ACES client batted .242/.403/.463 with 13 homers, 10 doubles and a triple. Joyce has long struggled against left-handed pitching and was shielded from southpaws accordingly with Pittsburgh.

[Related: Updated Oakland Athletics Depth Chart]

Oakland, a team that is known as one of the game’s most aggressive users of platoons, figures to deploy Joyce in a similar fashion. Joyce is a career .185/.265/.310 hitter against southpaws but has hit righties at a solid .252/.353/.449 clip. Though he’s never been a standout defender, his career ratings in both left field and right field (per Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating) hover right around average.

For the A’s, Joyce fills a much-needed spot on the team’s outfield depth chart. The A’s entered the offseason with Khris Davis as their primary left fielder (though he could profile better as a designated hitter), but little else in the way of certainty on the outfield grass. Brett Eibner, Jake Smolinski and Matt Olson were among Oakland’s primary outfield options prior to the agreement with Joyce, who now figures to receive a fairly sizable chunk of playing time between the two corner spots. He could potentially form a platoon with the right-handed hitting Smolinski in one of the corners, but it stands to reason that Joyce is merely the first of what will be multiple outfield additions for president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst this winter.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported the agreement and the terms (via Twitter). FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted the annual breakdown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Cardinals, Justin Turner

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NOV. 30: ESPN’s Mark Saxon tweeted yesterday that he was told recently that the Cardinals aren’t pursuing Turner, and he adds in a followup that he checked in again today and was told the same. While it’s perhaps possible that the Cards are fans of Turner but don’t view him as a priority right now, Saxon’s reports certainly seem to suggest that St. Louis is not actively pursuing Turner at this time.

NOV. 29: The Cardinals have at least some interest in free agent third baseman Justin Turner, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). It is not apparent from the report whether the club has spoken to Turner’s representatives.

As things stand, St. Louis appears to have a full slate of infielders, even after deciding to shift Matt Carpenter to first base for the coming season. With Aledmys Diaz at short, Kolten Wong at second, and Jhonny Peralta and Jedd Gyorko also available up the middle and at third, there are plenty of established options on hand.

Given that array of players, Morosi suggests that the Cards would likely need to find a taker for Peralta to facilitate an addition of Turner. The 34-year-old Peralta is coming off of a rough 2016 season, though he’s owed just $10MM entering the final season of his front-loaded free agent contract.

Turner, who just turned 32, would represent a nice upgrade for the Cardinals, though of course that’s also true of many other teams. Since reviving his career with the Dodgers, Turner owns a .296/.364/.492 batting line and has rated as a top-quality defender at the hot corner.

That production also means that Turner is likely to earn a hefty deal on the open market. MLBTR ranked him fourth among this year’s crop of free agents, predicting a five-year, $85MM contract. Because he turned down the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, moreover, Turner will come with the cost of draft compensation.

St. Louis has emphasized its interest in improving defensively, and Turner would certainly help in that regard. Though Peralta has typically rated well as a shortstop, and would seem to have the skillset for third base, he drew very poor metrics there last season.

Of course, the Cards also have a variety of other needs. Most pressing, perhaps, is the open outfield spot. The organization has been said to be hunting for a center fielder, with the idea of moving Randal Grichuk to a corner spot. Whether the team could pursue an upgrade there while also making a move on Turner remains to be seen.

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