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MLBTR Originals

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A roundup of MLBTR’s original content from the past week:

Statcast’s Influence To Increase

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The Statcast revolution in Major League Baseball is merely in its inchoate stages, as Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan details in a must-read piece.

“We’re in the third inning,” Tom Tango, one of the minds behind Statcast, told Passan.

Statcast, which MLB.com notes “is capable of measuring previously unquantifiable aspects of the game,” became available in each of the league’s stadiums in 2015 and is utilized by all 30 front offices. The system tracked 1,435,241 pitches last year, but it was only scratching the surface, writes Passan, who expects it “to fundamentally change how we consume baseball.”

Major League Baseball Advanced Media, otherwise known as BAM, introduced Statcast and is now working to release data that makes the sport easily understandable to the public in a way that sabermetrics don’t.

“What we’re trying to do is we want to make it relevant and relative,” said BAM CEO Bob Bowman, who’s among commissioner Rob Manfred’s closest advisers. “Relevant to what fans are watching right now and relative to other players and similar situations.”

Tango, Daren Willman and Mike Petriello are attempting to put together a Statcast-based Wins Above Replacement to measure players’ values better than the current iterations of WAR. The version Tango, Willman and Petriello could introduce would lay out exactly how much value each position player contributes as a hitter, defender and base runner and, per Passan, possibly grade players on a 1-to-100 scale.

“What will make our version of WAR intriguing,” Willman said, “is the way we’re going to make it accessible.”

Their latest attempt to measure defense comes in the form of Catch Probability, which Petriello unveiled Saturday on MLB.com in another highly recommended piece. Catch Probability uses a 0-100 percent scale to determine how catchable each tracked ball hit to the outfield is, and they’d eventually like to use it to judge infield defense.

“A 40 percent play and 80 percent play are very close,” Tango told Passan. “Less than a second of hangtime. Fifteen to 20 feet of positioning. At a single-play level, that’s where this thing is going to shine.”

Eventually, BAM would like to integrate Statcast’s data into every major league broadcast. So far, the league has gotten incredible bang for its buck from BAM, which began with investments of a couple million dollars from each franchise. Now, according to Passan, the league’s 30 clubs are worth at least $1 billion apiece because all own a stake in BAM.

NL Notes: Giants, Brewers, Mets

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There was a scary scene during the San Francisco-Kansas City game Saturday in Phoenix, as a line drive off the bat of Royals third baseman/outfielder Hunter Dozier struck Giants first base coach Jose Alguacil in the face, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News was among those to report. Alguacil suffered a fractured nose, a deep facial laceration and fractures in his left eye socket, and he was airlifted to a Phoenix trauma center to undergo surgery. He’s now resting with his family, tweets Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. MLBTR wishes Alguacil a fast recovery as he prepares for his first season on the Giants’ coaching staff.

In lighter news from San Francisco and two other National League cities…

  • Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto will be able to opt out of his contract after this season, but the longtime ace told Chris Haft of MLB.com that’s not on his mind. “To me, this is just a regular year,” he said. “I signed for five [more] years, and I’m not thinking anything past that. It’s just another year for me.” Cueto will earn $106MM if he sticks with the Giants through 2022, though another great season would put him in prime position to land a more valuable pact next winter. In his age-30 campaign last year, Cueto pitched to a pristine 2.79 ERA, logged a 50.2 percent ground-ball rate and recorded 8.11 K/9 against 1.94 BB/9 in 219 2/3 innings.
  • Brewers infielder Jonathan Villar addressed his recent decision to turn down a $20MM extension Saturday, telling Adam McCalvy of MLB.com that it wasn’t difficult to reject. “In my house, I feel good,” he said. “I’m comfortable. … I told my family [about the offer], and they told me, ’It’s up to you. If you want, fine. If no, no.’ I can wait for arbitration.” Villar, who will become arbitration eligible next offseason, noted that he doesn’t harbor any ill feelings toward the Brewers. He’ll now try to build on a breakout 2016 in which he slashed .285/.369/.457 with 19 home runs and a major league-best 62 stolen bases over 679 plate appearances.
  • Given that he was the subject of trade rumors throughout the offseason, Mets right fielder Jay Bruce did not expect to return to the club this year, he told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. “The whole time I just assumed I was going being traded,’’ said Bruce. “Honestly, the way everything went down, I did not think I would be back. Not to sound like a (jerk), but I knew I was going to be the opening-day right fielder somewhere.” The Mets then informed Bruce in January he’d stick around, which he’s “very, very happy” about. Although Bruce batted a paltry .219/.294/.391 in 187 PAs with the Mets last year after joining the club in a deadline trade with the Reds, his rocky off-field transition from Cincinnati to New York didn’t help matters, Nightengale notes. Bruce stayed in six hotels as a Met down the stretch and was apart from his wife and 4-month-old son, who remained in Texas. The three of them will live in an apartment on New York City’s Upper East Side this year, per Bruce.

Lorenzo Cain Wants Long-Term Deal From Royals

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Lorenzo Cain is among several key Royals who are unsigned beyond this year, but the center fielder would rather continue in Kansas City than head elsewhere in 2018, he told Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.

“You can’t help but think about that,” said Cain, referring to his uncertain future. “You try not to, but it’s there. You know, if it were up to me, I’d be here long-term.”

As of late February, the Royals were focusing on extending another soon-to-be free agent, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and hadn’t engaged in contract talks with Cain, third baseman Mike Moustakas or shortstop Alcides Escobar. Unlike Hosmer, Moustakas and Escobar, all of whom have seriously underwhelmed at times, Cain has consistently turned in quality production as a Royal.

Since debuting in earnest with Kansas City during a 61-game 2012 campaign, Cain has hit .286/.336/.417 across 2,226 plate appearances. While that’s more of a respectable slash line than a star-caliber one, Cain has added further value defensively and on the base paths to establish himself as one of the majors’ most well-rounded players. Only nine of Cain’s fellow big leaguers have bettered his 61 Defensive Runs Saved and just six have outdone his 51.4 Ultimate Zone Rating over the past half-decade, while he ranks among the top 50 in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and has accumulated 94 steals during the same time frame.

Thanks to his all-around prowess, Cain has totaled 18.0 fWAR since 2012, good for 35th among position players and somewhere between Ian Desmond (18.5 in 3,168 PAs) and Dexter Fowler (13.9 in 2,768 PAs). Notably, Desmond and Fowler landed five-year deals worth between $70MM and $82.5MM as free agents during the offseason. Like those two, Cain is entering his age-31 season. So was Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner in 2014, when he inked a four-year, $52MM extension and eschewed a chance to hit the open market in 2015. That came after Gardner combined for 17.1 fWAR in 2,087 trips to the plate from 2009-13.

Of those three players, Cain’s closest comparable is Gardner, who has also mixed roughly average offense with plus defense and baserunning throughout his career. Cain could certainly have a case to exceed Gardner’s deal, though, particularly if he stays healthy in 2017. Cain only appeared in 103 games and amassed 434 PAs last year, during which he posted his worst batting line since 2013 (.287/.339/.408), as he missed all but one contest in September on account of a wrist injury. Fortunately for Cain, that won’t hamper him going forward.

“No problems with the wrist,” he informed Flanagan. “I’ve been taking some heavy cuts and I haven’t made a lot of contact yet. But the wrist is really good.”

With his wrist issue in the past, Cain figures to further make his case for a rich contract during the upcoming campaign. A bounce-back performance from Cain could help the Royals return to the form they showed in 2015, when they won their first World Series since 1985 and he was among their top contributors. But if the team endures a second straight mediocre season, an extension-less Cain might find himself in a different uniform around the summer trade deadline.

Latest On Extension Talks Between Rangers, Rougned Odor

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MARCH 4: There’s a “decent-sized gap” between the Rangers and Odor, who have exchanged proposals, and the team is likely to submit a counteroffer soon, according to Heyman.

FEBRUARY 27: Odor’s reps met today with Rangers GM Jon Daniels, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). There’s still no word as to how discussions are progressing, but clearly they are ongoing at this point.

FEBRUARY 23, 4:15pm: Whatever talks have taken place to this point don’t appear to advance to the point where Odor himself has been presented with an offer or a concept, as the infielder himself tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (Twitter link) that he “[doesn’t] know anything.”

8:40am: The Rangers and the reps for second baseman Rougned Odor have undertaken renewed efforts to reach agreement on a long-term deal, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. It’s not clear just how likely it is that the sides will see eye to eye, but Heyman says there’s “at least a bit of hope.”

Last we checked in, early last fall, the sides had stalled out in talks over the size of the guarantee and number of option years that the club would pick up. Now, Odor stands one season away from reaching arbitration eligibility, perhaps adding impetus to the club’s effort.

Indeed, Texas appears to be making a significant push to get something done. The club is “believed to have offered something in the range of” the extension reached between Jason Kipnis and the Indians at the outset of the 2014 season. That six-year deal promised Kipnis $52.5MM and came with a single club option. At the time, the Cleveland second baseman was also a 2+ service class player who had not reached Super Two eligibility, putting him in the same position as Odor. (Interestingly, as Heyman notes, both are also represented by the large Beverly Hills Sports Council agency.)

Of course, that deal is now a few years old. And one could argue that Odor ought to earn more, based largely upon his age. Kipnis was entering his age-27 season at the time of his deal, while Odor only just turned 23. On the other hand, Kipnis was coming off of a monster season — his second straight as a 3+ WAR regular — while Odor has a somewhat less-established track record. While he drove 33 long balls last year, Odor also failed even to crack the .300 OBP barrier and drew poor metrics for his glovework.

It’s an interesting standoff, all things considered. Odor’s early lock on a regular job and sizable home run tallies give him significant arbitration earning power, while his young age holds the promise of free-agent riches to come. Those factors surely have driven the price northward on a deal, despite the fact that Odor has yet to put up a complete season approaching the All-Star campaign of Kipnis in 2013. That the Rangers are still pushing to get something done indicates that the team feels there’s still growth left in his game, though undoubtedly there are limits to what the team will spend.

Jeffrey Loria Likely To Sell Marlins This Year

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Contrary to a report from February stating that Marlins Jeffrey Loria had a “handshake agreement” to sell the franchise to New York-based real estate developer Joshua Kushner, he hasn’t yet reached a deal with anyone, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. However, Loria is ready to move on from baseball and poised to part with the team sometime this year, reports Jackson.

Loria is currently in discussions with four groups, both from Miami and elsewhere, about selling the Marlins and has also had talks with two others. Major League Baseball knows the identities of the potential buyers, Jackson adds.

Based on prior reports, it seems the Marlins could sell from between $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion, which would be quite a boon for the much-maligned Loria. Now 76, Loria bought the franchise for a relatively meager $158MM in 2002. The Marlins won their second World Series a year later, but they haven’t made the playoffs since and Loria has come under fire for, among other things, his reluctance to spend to improve the on-field product and the opening of a $634MM, taxpayer-funded stadium in 2012. Loria did sign outfielder Giancarlo Stanton to a $325MM contract in 2014, but he’d escape the remaining $309.5MM on the pact by selling the Marlins.

Should Loria leave baseball behind, he could become the United States ambassador to France under President Donald Trump, who’s the father-in-law of Jared Kushner, Joshua’s brother. The Kushner group issued a statement last month saying it wouldn’t pursue a purchase of the Marlins if Trump appoints Loria to that post. Regardless of whether that proves true, it does appear the Marlins will soon change hands.

Injury Notes: BoSox, Mets, Angels, Rox, Tigers, Braves

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There was fear this week that Red Sox left-hander David Price would need elbow surgery, but those worries were put to rest Friday. It turns out that elbow experts Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Neal ElAttrache diagnosed Price with a mild flexor strain and some bone spurs, industry sources told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. That Price dodged a more serious injury surprised the doctors, the ace revealed. “They said it multiple times; we expected this to be a lot worse than what it really is,” said Price, who added that Andrews and ElAttrache informed him he has an “extremely unique” elbow. “It’s found a way to kind of heal itself,” he continued. “It’s pretty neat, bionic elbow.” Although Price avoided a season-ending issue, he’s still likely to begin the campaign on the disabled list and miss a to-be-determined amount of starts, according to Abraham. How much time Price misses will largely be up to him, though, as the doctors want the 31-year-old to map out his own recovery program. “I’ll know when I feel good enough to go out there and throw a baseball,” declared Price.

More pitcher-related injury updates:

  • Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom took the mound Saturday for the first time since last September, when he underwent elbow surgery, and dazzled in two scoreless innings, reports Dan Martin of the New York Post. DeGrom’s average fastball velocity fell from 94.9 mph in 2015 to 93.4 mph last year, but it clocked in between 96 and 97 mph at times Saturday. “When I saw the 97, I looked at (pitching coach) Dan (Warthen) and said, ‘That’s a little special,’” said manager Terry Collins. Naturally, deGrom also came away encouraged. “Last year, it was all I had to get to 92 [mph],” deGrom noted. “It has to do with repeating my mechanics. Last year, I flew open all the time and my arm was dragging.”
  • Unlike deGrom, Angels lefty Tyler Skaggs endured a rather poor spring debut Saturday, relays Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter links). In his first outing since undergoing a major injury scare last September, the onetime Tommy John surgery recipient recorded only two outs against four walks. More alarmingly, Skaggs saw his fastball dip from 89 to 92 mph at the beginning of the inning to 86 to 88 mph by the end of it.
  • Southpaw Chris Rusin is attempting to claim the last spot in the Rockies’ rotation this spring, but those efforts will go on hold for an “extended period,” writes Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com. Rusin hurt his right side in his outing Friday, causing him to leave the game, and will “be out for a while,” manager Bud Black said.
  • Tigers righty reliever Adam Ravenelle departed the team’s game Saturday with elbow discomfort and will undergo an MRI, skipper Brad Ausmus announced (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Ravenelle, a non-roster invitee whom Baseball America ranks as Detroit’s eighth-best prospect, underwent ulnar nerve surgery in his elbow in 2012, per Woodbery. More recently, the 24-year-old combined for 67 1/3 innings at three different levels last season. The plurality of his work came at Triple-A Toledo, where he put up a 4.85 ERA to go with 6.98 K/9 against 4.85 BB/9 in 29 2/3 frames.
  • Braves Rule 5 pick Armando Rivero has been dealing with shoulder soreness, though manager Brian Snitker said Saturday that there’s no sign of structural damage, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Braves doctors cleared the righty, previously with the Cubs, to continue throwing and vying for a job with Atlanta. Rivero, 29, pitched to a 2.13 ERA and recorded a sky-high 13.97 K/9 against a bloated 4.66 BB/9 in 67 2/3 innings with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in 2016.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Yanks, Nats, Jays, Brewers, Phillies

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This week in baseball blogs:

Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

NL Central Notes: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers

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Reds first baseman Joey Votto turned in yet another all-world season at the plate last year, but that accompanied an uncharacteristically poor defensive campaign. After finishing with fewer than four Defensive Runs Saved in just one season from 2008-15, Votto logged a ghastly minus-14 DRS to finish worst among first basemen last year. In regards to his most recent output in the field, Votto told Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer: “I didn’t prepare properly. I had to do a lot of catching up during the season. The unfortunate thing of hitting versus defense is I’m probably a more natural hitter than I am a defensive player. When I don’t prepare to the utmost in one aspect of my game that’s not a strength, I’m way behind everybody else.” Votto wasn’t going to make the same mistake twice, so he spent the offseason doing unspecified work to improve his defense, relays Buchanan.

More on Cincinnati and two of its division rivals:

  • Jumbo Diaz was among the few Reds relievers who prevented runs at a respectable rate in 2016, when he registered a 3.14 ERA in 43 innings (that did mask an unappealing 5.24 FIP, granted), yet he’s not a lock to make their bullpen this year, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Diaz is out of options, so his four-year tenure with the Cincy organization could be in jeopardy. Having yielded six earned runs on eight hits in three spring innings, the 33-year-old is cognizant of the fact that he’s not in an ideal situation. “I know I am fighting for a spot here,” he told Sheldon. “So far in my outings, I’m not doing so well. But I think I’m throwing hard and can get on track and be ready for the season. I feel good right now. I think I will do everything I can [to get] ready for my outings every time I go to the mound.” Diaz will join the Dominican Republic team in Miami on Sunday for this year’s World Baseball Classic, and manager Bryan Price wonders if the right-hander will see enough work in the tournament. “My only concern is [that] he gets regular work in the Classic, and if they’re playing for a long time that he’s being used on a regular basis,” Price said.
  • After nearly three years as the Cardinals’ primary closer, right-hander Trevor Rosenthal is vying for a spot in the team’s rotation, though it’s unlikely he’ll end up a starter, suggests Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Redbirds “don’t really know” what Rosenthal’s role will be in 2017, per manager Mike Matheny, but given that they’re stretching him out, odds are he’ll end up as something between a starter and a closer, writes Goold. The hard-throwing 26-year-old could give the Cardinals their own version of Cleveland’s Andrew Miller – someone capable of handling high-leverage situations and tossing multiple innings in an appearance.
  • The Brewers had six starters throw at least 100 innings last season. While all of them remain with the organization, only  righties Junior Guerra and Zach Davies are locks to crack the major league rotation again this season, according to manager Craig Counsell (via Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com). The others – 2016 innings leader Jimmy Nelson (179 1/3), Matt Garza, Chase Anderson and Wily Peralta – are competing with newcomer Tommy Milone for the Brewers’ final three starting spots. “It’s the best way,” said Counsell, who’s “happy” with the rotation depth Milwaukee possesses.

AL Central Notes: Indians, White Sox, Royals

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The Indians plan to utilize Carlos Santana as the team’s primary first baseman, skipper Terry Francona told reporters including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). That means that Edwin Encarnacion will mostly serve as the team’s designated hitter, though the two will also exchange roles at times. While that’ll increase the wear and tear somewhat on Santana, who’s slated to hit the open market after the season, it will give him a chance also to show his defensive chops after lining up as the DH primarily in 2016.

More from the AL Central:

  • The White Sox could welcome Todd Frazier back to action as soon as Wednesday, Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago tweets. Manager Rick Renteria says that the veteran has improved quite a bit over the past several days. Chicago is hoping to ease Frazier into action without inflaming his strained oblique; though the club would no doubt love to showcase him for possibly interested rivals, the priority no doubt is on making sure that a more significant injury doesn’t develop — potentially fouling up hopes that he’ll develop into a nice trade deadline chip.
  • After struggling through a rookie season in which he hit .185/.231/.281 in 149 plate appearances, Royals middle infielder Raul Mondesi is “a different guy this spring,” manager Ned Yost told Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. While the 21-year-old Mondesi has impressed thus far as one of four contenders for the Royals’ second base job, the fact that he has minor league options remaining could work against him, Flanagan notes. Of the other contenders, Cheslor Cuthbert and Christian Colon don’t have options left, so they look like shoo-ins for roster spots. Whit Merrifield, meanwhile, could be too valuable to the Royals as a utility man to demote. Nevertheless, Yost has left the door open for Mondesi to grab a spot. “The decision will come down [to] what is best for his development,” Yost said. “If he’s at a point where he can contribute … Defensively, his range is unbelievable. The coverage is unbelievable in terms of how far he can go side to side, and getting pop flies.”
  • Royals DH/outfielder Brandon Moss is dealing with some lower back stiffness, as Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star tweets. He’ll sit out today’s action, though it seems there’s little reason for concern at this point. Moss is considered day to day.

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