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Archives for November 2019

NL Notes: Diamondbacks, Vogt, Padres, Mets

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The Diamondbacks’ behind-the-plate combination of Carson Kelly and Alex Avila’s was one of the National League’s best in 2019, from an offensive standpoint. The two combined for 27 homers last year, with Kelly’s 108 wRC+ falling fourth among NL backstops. The club doubled down on an offense-first approach at catcher when it signed Stephen Vogt to a one-year, $3MM deal with a 2021 vesting option earlier this week, posits Zach Buchanan of The Athletic.

In acquiring Vogt, Buchanan argues that executive Mike Hazen essentially secured Avila-plus; both players are left-handed, veteran sluggers, but Vogt performed at a higher level in 2019 and swings at a higher launch angle than the 32-year-old Avila (a feature which figures to play well at Arizona’s Chase Field). With catcher defense front-and-center for many front offices, going bat-first at backstop certainly represents an against-the-grain strategy for Arizona’s front office.

More items from around the NL…

  • It’s been an offseason of change in San Diego, with new manager Jayce Tingler taking the reins after a four-year stretch of losing seasons under Andy Green. We’ve also seen former Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild take over for longtime Padres fixture Darren Balsley, and a few of Manny Machado’s old friends from Baltimore have been brought in to provide additional coaching help. Rothschild has now settled on Ben Fritz as the club’s new bullpen coach, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, although a new hitting coach has yet to be identified. Damian Easley, who has already been working with the club’s infielders, remains a possibility for that role. Acee also relays that Rod Barajas, who served as the club’s interim manager after Green’s mid-season exit, will be redirected to another role in the organization after being passed over for the role of skipper.
  • Tim Britton of The Athletic tracks payroll trends surrounding the Mets over the last decade, with his analysis resting largely on info culled from Baseball Prospectus’ Cot’s On Contracts. Though perhaps unsurprising to most faithful followers of the team, Britton notes that New York has enacted the lowest percentage increase in total payroll among all teams in this decade. While total MLB revenue has risen nearly 50 percent in the last ten years, the Mets have not kept pace with other big-market spenders (New York was third in payroll over the course of the aughts, but spent the majority of this decade outside the top ten in payroll spending). Still, it’s important to emphasize that the Mets’ payroll is trending up of late, with GM Brodie Van Wagenen denying to speak unequivocally about a potential approach to the $208MM CBT line.

AL Notes: Zunino, Rangers, Apostel, Cole, Boras

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The Rays made the gutsy decision to bet on a bounceback from catcher Mike Zunino in 2020, opting to avoid arb with the former Gator via a $4.5MM deal while Travis d’Arnaud headed for richer pastures in Atlanta. Zunino has never been what one would call a complete hitter, but 2019 represented a personal low from a performance standpoint, with the former top draftee managing just a .165/.232/.312 (45 wRC+) output through 289 plate appearances. Now, the likelihood of a Zunino rebound at the plate may rest on the work of hitting coach Chad Mottola, suggests Josh Tolentino of The Athletic (link).

As Tolentino notes, Mottola was instrumental in helping d’Arnaud find offensive consistency and also helped pull shortstop Willy Adames out of an early-season funk in 2019. Zunino’s real value will likely always lie with the glove (he did record 8.3 Fielding Runs Above Average in limited work in 2019, per Baseball Prospectus), but a return to his 2017 levels (126 wRC+ and 25 homers in 124 games) would certainly be a welcome development. The Rays also hold a $4.5MM option on Zunino for the 2021 season.

More notes from around the American League…

  • The Rangers’ decision to draft two third basemen, Josh Jung and Davis Wendzel, with their top two picks in the 2019 draft led many to believe that the future of that position was well in hand, but the toolsy Sherten Apostel should not be counted out as a long-term answer, opines Levi Weaver of The Athletic. Originally acquired alongside Taylor Hearn in a 2018 deadline deal that sent Keone Kela to Pittsburgh, Apostel is likely to start 2020 at High-A Down East alongside Jung. Despite his 6’4 frame, organizational observers are bullish about his ability to stick at the hot corner, and his prodigious raw power prompted Single-A Hickory manager Matt Hagen to credit the 20-year-old Curacao native with “man-child” strength. Apostel managed a .251/.339/.440 slash line and 19 home runs across 478 plate appearances between two levels last year. Of course, the position could be addressed via a long-term signing this offseason, with our writers settling on Texas as a realistic destination for free agent Josh Donaldson in early November.
  • While much has been made of Gerrit Cole’s professional relationship with agent Scott Boras this offseason, observers should take note that Cole previously shown a tendency to direct his own fortunes, reminds Tracy Ringolsby of Baseball America. When Cole was a first-round draftee of the Yankees back in 2008, it was Cole and his father, according to Ringolsby, who made the ultimate decision to pursue a collegiate career at UCLA. Cole’s first-round signing bonus that year was expected to land around $4MM, but the Cole family apparently believed that the intangible value of an education–to say nothing of another chance of entering the draft at a higher slot–outweighed the benefits of an early payday. Obviously, it doesn’t register as news to be reminded that agents are entrusted to work for the best interests of their clients, but it may be worth considering, given their working history, that the former Astros ace and his representatives likely have more in mind this offseason than pure dollar value alone.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Largest Guarantee Among Potential NPB Imports

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In addition to the dozens of veteran free agents still looking for new homes this offseason, there are currently three decorated players from the Nippon Professional Baseball ranks who are currently available to stateside clubs via the MLB posting system. First baseman Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, pitcher Shun Yamaguchi, and second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi have already been posted this winter; a fourth player, outfielder Shogo Akiyama, is an international free agent. While none of these players promise, like countrymen Shohei Ohtani or Yu Darvish before them, to be franchise building blocks, each offers unique value to potential American suitors.

Looking for a lefty bat with pop? Tsutsugo is your man. Since 2014, the 6’0 slugger has blasted an average of 30.83 home runs per season while playing for the Yokohama BayStars, peaking with totals of 44 and 38 round-trippers in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The now-28-year-old couples that raw power with the patient approach modern clubs covet, recording a 15.1 percent walk rate over the last four seasons, while also doing a generally acceptable job of limiting strikeouts.

As for his defense? Well, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America recently said he’s “not a terrible fielder by any means, but he’s not a great one either”. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a player who has shuttled between first, third, and left field in a ten-year Nipponese career. Clubs may be wary of committing multiple years, a hefty guarantee, and a posting fee (more on that in a moment) for a player who may end up suited for DH duties.

How about teams in search of a veteran starting pitcher to slot into their rotation’s back end? 32-year-old righty Shun Yamaguchi throws a fastball that sits around 90 mph, with a forkball representing his primary breaking pitch. That surely doesn’t sound like the most glamorous mix of attributes, but what Yamaguchi can offer is a wealth of experience and a good deal of forward momentum. Despite having pitched over 1000 innings stretching between the bullpen and the rotation in an NPB career dating back to 2006, Yamaguchi may have found another gear in 2019.

In addition to posting a 2.91 ERA over 26 starts, his 10.0 K/9 and 3.13 K/BB ratios last season marked personal bests as a starter. This offseason has already been slightly unpredictable when it comes to starting pitching, with Jake Odorizzi foregoing the open market and an inconsistent Kyle Gibson garnering a three-year, $30MM deal from the Rangers. For teams leery of even approaching the market’s top trifecta of starting arms, Yamaguchi, though likely not a world-beater, could represent an appealing value play.

Then there’s the slick-fielding Ryosuke Kikuchi. For teams in need of second base help and defensive improvement in the infield–and there are a few teams who fit within that category–Kikuchi may be a perfect match. The 29-year-old has won every Golden Glove at the keystone in the NPB’s Central League since 2013. While his defensive excellence seems to be universally upheld, there are some persistent questions as to how the bat will travel. Since debuting with the Hiroshima Carp in 2012, the righty swinger has logged a cumulative .271/.315/.391 line across a rather healthy sample of 4695 plate appearances.

Kikuchi’s .261/.313/.406 slash from last year would look acceptable in the majors from a defensively adept second baseman, but such production in the offensively friendly Japanese ranks may give some MLB front offices reason to pause; those that remember the trials of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Munenori Kawasaki, two other former Golden Glove NPB infielders who proved unable to adapt to MLB pitching, may simply stay away altogether.

Big league teams interested in any of these players will have to pay their parent clubs posting fees proportional to the size of the player’s contract: 20 percent of the first $25MM guaranteed; 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, plus 15 percent of every dollar over $50MM. That release fee is separate from the guarantee itself (for instance, a $25MM guarantee for one of these players would result in an additional $5MM posting fee, bringing the MLB club’s total expense to $30MM).

Performance incentives and contract options will trigger a supplemental 15 percent release fee once unlocked. For a minor league deal, an MLB club will be required to give a parent club 25 percent of the player’s signing bonus, and the player’s MLB salary will be subject to a supplemental posting fee if he is added to the club’s 25-man roster.

Shogo Akiyama probably represents the most well-rounded player expected to make the leap this offseason, and he was the only expected NPB import from this offseason to land within our Top 50 MLB Free Agent list. Considered a true center fielder and leadoff man by most, Akiyama set the NPB single-season record for hits (216) in the 2015 season. He’s won six Golden Gloves in his home country, hit 69 home runs over his last three seasons with the Seibu Lions, and holds a 10.8 percent walk rate since 2016. Two problems: Akiyama will be 32 next April, a rather advanced age for an up-the-middle player, and he suffered a broken bone in his foot during an exhibition on Oct 31 and will need to show he is healthy in order to sign with an MLB team.

There’s certainly a chance some of these players may not come stateside this offseason, but each seems to represent a coveted potential asset in their own right. This year’s free agent market is generally slim pickings when it comes to center fielders, so Akiyama’s availability, in particular, is probably a welcome development for a number of clubs; better yet, he is free to sign a new deal with any club without being subject to the posting system and its concomitant fees.

Still, it’s fair to wonder if he can truly be considered the most viable play here.  Tsutsugo offers immense immense power and relative youth, while there seems to be a fair number of clubs circling starting pitching options like Yamaguchi this offseason.

Which one do you believe is likely to receive the healthiest contract guarantee this winter? (Poll link for app users)


Quick Hits: 40-Man Rosters, Cubs, Japanese FAs

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As we approach the non-tender deadline and the Rule 5 draft, many of the 40-man roster changes may seem inconsequential from a league perspective. But for those players involved, a spot on a 40-man roster can be life-changing. As noted by Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, a minor league player’s pay will jump from $2000 a month to at least $46,000 for the year once added to the 40-man. That’s a significant pay bump, but their potential for future earnings also gets a jolt as they receive an invite to spring camp and a longer look from major league coaches and executives. Even one day on the ML roster during the season will earn a player more in a week than he’d likely ever made in a month of minor league ball. Given the roster churn that happens over the course of a season and the high rate of injuries, a spot on the 40-man roster gives a player a pretty decent chance of making an appearance in the show. Feel free to take a moment this morning to reflect on baseball’s greater economic landscape, then follow up with a couple quick hits from around the league.

  • The Cubs are in the market for pitching, but probably not the top names on the free agent market, per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney. The Cubs haven’t been able to put together a pitching staff like the one that took them to a World Series title in 2016, and they no longer have the financial leeway to make a big splash like they did with the signing of Jon Lester. Only Kyle Hendricks remains close to the guy he was in 2016 when Hendricks, Lester, and Jake Arrieta each put together seasons worthy of Cy Young consideration en route to the curse-breaking championship. The Cubs of today will have to hit on below-the-radar type acquisitions, as they did in acquiring Arrieta and Hendricks in the first place. Willson Contreras could fetch a noteworthy piece, but that’s a theoretical valuation that requires a trading partner willing to move the right young arm.
  • While ardent fans are familiar with most of the names in the free agent pool, there are a few newcomers from Japanese professional baseball who remain relatively unknown commodities to American followers. Thankfully, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America provides scouting reports on a host of Japanese ballplayers who could find themselves on MLB rosters in the not-too-distant future. It’s a list that includes three players who have already been posted—Ryosuke Kikuchi, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, and Shun Yamaguchi—and Shogo Akiyama, an international free agent, all of whom are eligible to negotiate with big league clubs. Coskrey also names a number of players who could be next in line to make it stateside via the posting system or international free agency, including the famed Tetsuto Yamada. For those readers who are interested in familiarizing themselves with the newest influx of international talent to the MLB landscape, Coskrey’s piece is worth a look.

Padres To Sign Drew Pomeranz

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Nov. 30: Rosenthal adds that Pomeranz’s $8MM signing bonus is deferred and will be paid between November 2020 and November 2023.

Nov. 27, 4:02pm: Pomeranz received an $8MM signing bonus and will be paid annual salaries of $4MM in 2020, $6MM in 2021 and $8MM in 2022-23, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (on Twitter).

1:54pm: Pomeranz will be guaranteed $34MM over a four-year term, pending a physical, Murray tweets.

1:20pm: Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that Pomeranz has been promised a rather stunning four-year guarantee (Twitter link). Robert Murray adds that it’ll pay him $8-9MM annually.

10:20am: The Padres have struck a deal with free agent lefty Drew Pomeranz, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The signing of the CAA client adds to what is quickly becoming a barn-burner of a day for the Friars, who have already struck a four-player swap with the Brewers.

Drew Pomeranz | Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Details remain unknown, but it seems fair to guess the southpaw has done quite well for himself — likely on a multi-year pact — in a surprise return to San Diego. The 31-year-old had an excellent, but brief run with the organization back in 2016 before being flipped to the Red Sox in a trade for then-top prospect Anderson Espinoza. Pomeranz has had some ups and downs as a starting pitcher since that time, but he finished the ’19 season riding high in a return to a relief setting.

Just a few months ago, the notion of Pomeranz being considered a top-tier free agent would’ve seemed unthinkable. He’d been booted from a pedestrian Giants rotation after posting a 5.97 ERA through 18 starts, but Pomeranz morphed into one of baseball’s most dominant bullpen weapons down the stretch. In 28 relief appearances, he not only posted a 1.88 ERA but also punched out a staggering 50 of the 106 batters he faced (47.2 percent). The Brewers were clearly intrigued by Pomeranz’s early work out of the ’pen, acquiring him and flamethrower Ray Black in a deadline swap that sent infield prospect Mauricio Dubon to San Francisco.

The addition of Pomeranz will give the Padres a dynamic back-end bullpen duo, as he’ll team with right-hander Kirby Yates, who has emerged as one of baseball’s premier relievers since joining the Padres via waiver claim early in the 2017 season. Yates figures to continue handling ninth-inning duties, with Pomeranz serving as a top setup man, although today’s signing does give the San Diego organization even greater flexibility to shop Yates around as he enters his final year of club control. That said, the Padres have made a clear shift toward more of a win-now ideology after a grueling rebuild, and the Yates/Pomeranz pairing unequivocally makes them more formidable.

MLBTR Originals

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On a relatively slow post-holiday Saturday morning, let’s round up the original work posted by the MLBTR staff this week…

MLBTR Poll: Best November Transaction

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As we approach the winter meetings, most of the offseason action remains ahead of us, starting with Monday’s non-tender deadline. There has been some early movement, however, as two free agents signed their qualifying offers, we got an early need-for-need challenge trade, and 9 of our Top 50 MLB Free Agents have already left the board.

The splashiest signing of November was the White Sox snagging of Yasmani Grandal on a four-year, $73MM deal. MLBTR readers largely approved of the deal in this poll from Connor Byrne. The Southsiders also locked up their long-time lineup fulcrum in Cuban first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu. After he accepted the qualifying offer, GM Rick Hahn committed two more years to 2019’s AL RBI leader.

The Braves win November’s volume award, moving early on many fronts. They returned vets like Darren O’Day, Chris Martin, and Nick Markakis, solidified Tyler Flowers and Travis d’Arnaud as their catching tandem, and brought in the top bullpen arm on the market in lefty Will Smith.

The Padres also came to play this winter, signing Drew Pomeranz to a lengthy four-year contract. Pomeranz impressed in a 26-game stint in Milwaukee, and he’ll now pair with Kirby Yates at the back end of San Diego’s bullpen. The Rangers, meanwhile, turned three-year, $30MM rotation arms into a tradition when they signed former Twin Kyle Gibson.

Lest we forget, November also gifted us with an always-exciting pre-debut extension when the Mariners inked first baseman Evan White to a six-year, $24MM pact despite finishing 2019 in Double-A. On the flip side, we lost some players from the pool through the overseas departures of former major leaguers Gerardo “Baby Shark” Parra, Justin Bour, Tyler Austin, Mike Wright and Aaron Altherr.

November also gave us the rare controversial waiver placement. 28-year-old Jonathan Villar appeared in every game for the Orioles in 2019, putting up 4.0 bWAR with a .274/.339/.453 line while moving capably between second and short. He is likely due a somewhat heady $10.4MM through arbitration, but given Baltimore’s lack of financial commitments, stated desire for a veteran shortstop, and general need for talent of all shapes and sizes, it’s somewhat surprising to see them make Villar available for common claim.

As for the rest of the market, the Cards saved us the trauma of seeing Adam Wainwright in a non-Cardinals jersey, the Nats brought back Patrick Corbin’s personal catcher Yan Gomes on an affordable two-year deal, the Mariners plucked a low-cost rotation flyer off the pile in Kendall Graveman, the Diamondbacks gave Carson Kelly a veteran partner behind the plate in Stephen Vogt, and a few vets conceded early to minor league deals: Ryan Goins (A’s), Blaine Hardy (Twins), Josh Harrison (Phillies), A.J. Cole (Blue Jays).

The rumors continue to swirl, and though there’s still more than 12 hours left in the month, it’s a good time to see what y’all think was the best move made in November.

(Poll link for app users)

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

On the heels of their second straight NL East-winning campaign, the Braves have gotten off to an aggressive start this offseason. General manager Alex Anthopoulos, who’s trying to build an Atlanta team capable of winning a playoff series for the first time since 2001, has doled out an array of guaranteed contracts in the early stages of the winter. But the club’s still in danger of losing one of its top performers from 2019, free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Braves’ bullpen was unreliable during the season, which is why Anthopoulos started making over the unit in the summer. He swung pre-deadline trades for Shane Greene, Mark Melancon and setup man Chris Martin, who will return as key members of the group in 2020. Martin had been in line to leave, but the Braves instead brought back the nomadic 33-year-old right-hander on a two-year, $14MM contract a couple weeks ago. Likewise, they re-signed righty Darren O’Day this month, preventing his exit with a $2.75MM guarantee. Originally acquired from the Orioles before the 2018 deadline, hamstring and forearm injuries stopped the 37-year-old O’Day from pitching for the Braves until this September. But when O’Day finally retook the mound, he looked like the steady reliever he has been throughout his long career.

While the Martin and O’Day re-signings are hard to argue with, no move the Braves have made thus far should help more than the splashy addition of Will Smith. Once Aroldis Chapman stuck with the Yankees, the left-handed Smith, 30, became the undisputed premier reliever in this class. Previously with the Giants, Smith earned his first All-Star nod in 2019, during which he fired 65 1/3 innings of 2.76 ERA ball, posted 13.22 K/9 against 2.89 BB/9 and racked up 34 saves in 38 attempts.

As a result of his brilliant final season in San Francisco, MLBTR forecast a three-year, $42MM at the outset of free agency. The Braves, to their credit, paid a little less than that. They reeled in the Georgia-born Smith for $40MM over three years, though it seems they plan is to use him as a setup man to his former Giants teammate Melancon. Regardless, with the two of them, Greene, Martin and O’Day among its best late-game choices, Atlanta has remade its relief corps dating back to the summer. The Braves’ bullpen, although not particularly young, now looks like a strength.

While the bullpen has been Anthopoulos’ primary focus to this point, he has also overseen several moves on the position player side. First of all, outfielder Nick Markakis and catcher Tyler Flowers are back. The Braves bought out both players’ options for $2MM after the season, only to re-up them for guarantees of $4MM. The club still has to pay the pair $6MM apiece, but they’ll only count for $4MM in salary toward next year’s payroll. Whether that will actually matter remains to be seen, as the Braves aren’t typically a team that has to fear the luxury tax.

The lefty-swinging Markakis seems likely to platoon with the righty-hitting Adam Duvall in one of the outfield corners in 2020, continuing to bridge the gap toward promotions for high-end prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters. In the meantime, Markakis, Duvall, potential starter Ender Inciarte (if he’s not traded) and Austin Riley don’t make for the most confidence-inspiring quartet, though superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is obviously well-equipped to keep serving as the rising tide that lifts all boats in the outfield.

Behind the plate, Flowers remained a decent option last season, once again combining adequate offense (relative to his position) with elite pitch-framing skills. He teamed with Brian McCann and Francisco Cervelli then, but the former retired after a stellar career and the latter is a free agent. With that in mind, the Braves needed a new partner for Flowers. They got one in Travis d’Arnaud, whom they signed to a two-year, $16MM deal last week.

A former Blue Jay, d’Arnaud is now reunited with Anthopoulos, Toronto’s ex-GM. It was Anthopoulos who traded d’Arnaud out of Canada, landing then-star knuckleballer R.A. Dickey in a 2012 blockbuster with the Mets. D’Arnaud was an elite prospect at that point, but he wound up enduring a somewhat disappointing Mets tenure that was consistently marred by injuries. The Mets finally had enough of d’Arnaud early last season, designating him for assignment, but he has enjoyed a career renaissance since. The 30-year-old rebuilt his stock as a Ray over the past several months, thus turning himself into either the second- or third-best catcher on the open market. MLBTR projected a two-year, $14MM deal, so his Braves payday hardly came as a surprise.

Every pact Atlanta has handed out so far looks reasonable, but it’s still worth wondering how much more ownership is willing to spend. Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei has said the team still plans to “spend some money,” but it’s just about anyone’s guess what that means. The Braves began last season with a payroll in the $115MM range and have never spent more than $122MM-plus on a season-opening roster, per Cot’s. Now, according to the math of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs, they already have about $127MM in commitments for next year. There’s room to cut some of that out via non-tenders and trades (Inciarte?), but those moves wouldn’t free up a windfall of cash.

While it’s unclear how much more money Atlanta’s willing to put into its roster, it’s inarguable the club remains in need of upgrades. Third base, such a strength a season ago, is now a massive question mark with Donaldson unsigned. The Braves and Donaldson have expressed a desire to stay together on multiple occasions. Problem is that his next contract could be fairly exorbitant (MLBTR projects $75MM over three years), and several other teams have been eyeing him since free agency commenced. No doubt, Donaldson’s the No. 2 third baseman on the market, trailing only Anthony Rendon. But if the Braves don’t want to pay Donaldson, they can probably forget about splurging on Rendon for $200-some mill. That could point them to Mike Moustakas, whom they’ve showed interest in and whose next deal should come in around $20MM. Moustakas is no Donaldson or Rendon, but he’d make for a nice stopgap and allow Riley to either continue in the outfield or head to Triple-A for further seasoning. Moose would also be an easy upgrade over Johan Camargo, who’s coming off a season in which he recorded disastrous numbers.

Aside from third, the Braves’ rotation sticks out as a sore spot, especially after the club bought out innings eater Julio Teheran and saw Dallas Keuchel hit free agency. Supreme young building block Mike Soroka’s back, as are Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz. The rest of the group is decidedly less proven, with Sean Newcomb potentially returning to a starting role after a year spent mostly as a reliever. Kyle Wright’s a former top 40 prospect who could also factor in, but his MLB experience is limited (and his brief action in the majors hasn’t gone well). Meanwhile, promising prospects Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson have logged few to no innings above the minors.

So now what? Well, there are several avenues the Braves could explore. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg look like pipe dreams, but the rest of this starting class appears far more realistic. Former Giant Madison Bumgarner is reportedly high atop the Braves’ wish list, though he won’t come cheap. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Cole Hamels and Keuchel are all poised to cash in to varying extents.

If the Braves don’t win the bidding for any starters near the head of the class, they could turn to the trade market, where they’d perhaps be able to take advantage of their impressive farm system to acquire proven, affordable, controllable talent. The Braves had interest in Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd during the summer. Boyd wound up staying put, but he once again sticks out as one of the most obvious trade candidates in the game. Aside from Boyd, the D-backs’ Robbie Ray, the Pirates’ Chris Archer, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy, the Indians’ Corey Kluber and the Marlins’ Caleb Smith represent starters who made it to the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams just put together.

In terms of ideas that are of the pie-in-the-sky variety, would the Braves dare try to assemble a package for Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor or the Rockies’ Trevor Story? Picking up either could mean parting with stud prospects and incumbent shortstop Dansby Swanson, but either would be the type of acquisition who would place the Braves near the top of the league’s list of World Series contenders entering 2020. Of course, both players are only under control for two more years – the same amount of time as Braves franchise first baseman and extension candidate Freddie Freeman. Would the team be able to extend both? That’s one of several reasons it’s worth wondering whether the Braves would be interested in this sort of trade. Nevertheless, it’s at least worth bringing up as a possibility.

The offseason’s only a few weeks old, but Anthopoulos has already crammed an entire winter’s worth of action into the month of November. With third base seemingly open and at least one rotation spot potentially up for grabs, you can bet the GM isn’t done yet.

Phillies Interested In Dellin Betances, Austin Romine

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The Phillies are reportedly expressing interest in reliever Dellin Betances and catcher Austin Romine, per George A. King III of the New York Post.

Along with their reported interest in free agent shortstop Didi Gregorius, that makes three former Yankees the Phillies have been connected to since their hire of Joe Girardi as their next manager. All three ex-Yankees played multiple seasons under Girardi’s tutelage.

Betances certainly makes sense for a Phillies’ bullpen that was middle of the pack by ERA and a bottom-10 unit by measure of FIP. MLBTR’s Steve Adams provided a more succinct review in his Offseason Outlook by noting: they were “not a strength in 2019.” The group dealt with their share of injuries, of course, but that’s cold comfort for a team keen on competing in a difficult NL East. The bullpen currently has a number of high-ceiling arms, but very few established roles after injuries derailed the seasons of David Robertson, Seranthony Dominguez, and Tommy Hunter. Nominal closer Hector Neris arguably put together a decent 28-save campaign, but he was not without his hiccups either. Not for nothing, with Girardi taking over, usage patterns could shift entirely for this unit. Betances’ career 2.36 ERA and 14.6 K/9 would be a good addition on paper, but after missing essentially all of the 2019 season, Betances’ shutdown back-end talent comes packaged with further uncertainty.

Romine is the less likely of the two to end up in Philly, as the backup catcher is coming off a career-best .281/.310/.439 campaign and there’s no shortage of catching opportunities elsewhere. The backup spot in Philly doesn’t have as much playing time to offer as most – J.T. Realmuto is one of the few frontline catchers that demands a heavy majority of playing time. Philadelphia can probably get by with any number of veteran backups. They also have Deivy Grullon, 24 this season, waiting in the wings after a strong .283/.354/.496 seasons in Triple-A. Presumably, Romine would look for a position with a more obvious path to playing time.

Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates

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We’ve seen some early free agent action, but with the exception of the recent deal between Milwaukee and San Diego, the trade market has been quiet to this point of the offseason. It’s an opportune time to canvass rosters around the game to find the most intriguing possible candidates to be swapped. The methodology, if you can call it that, is pretty straightforward. We’re ordering players based upon a combination of trade value and trade likelihood. In part due to the wide-open nature of the winter market, as opposed to the trade deadline, we’ll rank a relatively smaller number of players and then provide a list of some (but not all!) other notable possibilities.

In terms of trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit.

With regard to trade likelihood, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t presently in a position where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.

It’s subjective; it’s debatable; and that’s what makes it fun. Here’s our list:

1. Ken Giles, RP, Blue Jays: High-end rental relievers can hold quite a bit of appeal on the trade market. Though he has had some hiccups over the years, Giles was lights-out last year in Toronto and remains youthful and fairly affordable ($8.4MM projected). While the Jays are hoping to begin making some winning strides, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be better off overall if they keep Giles for half of his final season of control before striking a deal.

2. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates: Connect the dots: Lots of teams would love to add a quality veteran center fielder. There aren’t many available in free agency. The Pirates are coming off of a calamitous 2019 season and have lost some of their highest-upside players. Marte is still quite good and has two reasonably affordable seasons of control remaining. New GM Ben Cherington has quite a few tough decisions to make, but aggressively shopping Marte — and completing the best-available deal, unless there’s a surprising paucity of trade interest — seems like a fairly straightforward proposition.

3. Omar Narvaez, C, Mariners: Narvaez’s glovework isn’t well regarded, but he’s been one of baseball’s better-hitting catchers for the past two seasons (and was a low-power OBP machine even before that). Few catchers can match his offensive skill set, and despite the shaky defensive skills, that bat carries value. The “reimagining” Mariners, however, are reportedly not only listening to offers on Narvaez but somewhat motivated to move him. He’s controlled another three seasons, but with Tom Murphy controlled longer and prospect Cal Raleigh looming in the upper minors, ever-active GM Jerry Dipoto is apparently intent on capitalizing on that team control.

4. Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Red Sox: Again, the demand up the middle is key here. Couple that with the Boston org’s preference to duck below the luxury line, and Bradley’s $11MM projected salary seems likely to end up on someone else’s books. He has a three-year run of below-average hitting and isn’t laden with value as a rental piece at that price tag, but he’d check some key boxes for quite a few teams.

5. Kirby Yates, RP, Padres: Yates was arguably baseball’s best reliever in 2019. He’s cheaper than Giles at a projected $6.5MM. But it seems a bit easier to imagine the San Diego organization deciding to hold onto him given that club’s mandate to begin winning now. It’s possible Yates will be held in hopes of helping to spur a big season, with the backstop of a mid-summer trade. Or he could be an extension target. There’s lots of value here, but the likelihood of a deal is tough to pin down.

6. Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers: Many teams will be intrigued by Boyd’s strikeout-capable arm, despite his late struggles. And the Detroit organization should be motivated to sell. The club has held out for a big return to this point, and understandably so. But perhaps it’ll give a little if trade partners do the same. And with some big dollar signs floating around for the top pitchers on the open market, Boyd’s lower-cost profile suddenly starts to look pretty appealing. Even if he can’t tap into the ceiling he showed glimpses of in 2019, Boyd is a quality, durable hurler with good value to a contending team.

7. Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks: It’s much the same situation as with Yates … man, it would sure hurt to trade a player like this in a season in which you wish to contend. But these NL West clubs are surely realistic about the odds of catching the Dodgers as the rosters are currently arrayed. So they have to contemplate swaps that boost the long-term outlook, even if it means something less than a full-throated attempt at winning right now. The Snakes have quite a few pitching possibilities to step in if they find a deal they like on the talented southpaw, though surely the club will not be overly anxious to get a deal done if the offers aren’t really significant.

8-9. Dominic Smith, 1B, Mets & Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees: Here we have a couple of recent top prospects entering their age-25 seasons after hitting well against MLB pitching in 1/3-season samples. Neither really fits on their current New York roster. (CHALLENGE TRADE?!?!) There’s no room at first base for the Mets owing to the presence of Peter Alonso. Throwing Smith in the outfield is sub-optimal since he’s not a good defender and the team already has two quality, left-handed-hitting options in Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. Over in the Bronx, Frazier doesn’t seem like the most compelling fit with two big righty hitting corner outfield bats (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton) and a variety of other righty swinging possibilities for DH duties. It’s easier to see Frazier as part of the mix if the Yanks instead trade Gio Urshela or Miguel Andujar.

10. Chris Archer, SP, Pirates: We don’t need to revisit the full Archer backstory, but suffice to say he’s a guy who has shown real ability but struggled increasingly to get the job done. It would hurt to sell low on Archer given the exceedingly painful acquisition cost, but the new front office regime has to look forward. There’s certainly an argument for holding him in hopes that a strong first half will boost the trade value, but it may also be a situation where the Bucs decide to get what they can when they can. Plenty of teams would jump at the chance to employ Archer for $9MM — just think what that gets you in free agency — particularly with a $11MM club option (which comes with a cheap $250K buyout) providing additional upside. Archer’s strikeout rate jumped once he finally ditched the two-seamer the Pirates wanted him to throw, and his velocity is still well above average, although he remained susceptible to the long ball.

11. Dylan Bundy, SP, Orioles: There’s evidently some momentum towards a deal, so the likelihood of a swap seems relatively high in this case. Bundy has not reached the ceiling that some once believed he’d possess and the results haven’t been there of late. But he still knows how to get strikeouts and has actually been rather durable of late. Bundy’s projected $5.7MM arb tab isn’t a bargain, but is also quite manageable. It’s important that he’s controllable for another campaign. The O’s will be looking to deal with a team that needs a back-end starter and has some ideas for getting Bundy locked in.

12. Blake Treinen, RP, Athletics: Arguably the best reliever in the game in 2018, Treinen lost his grip on the closer’s role in Oakland this past season and may have pitched himself out of the organization. Treinen’s projected $7.8MM salary is a rather substantial dice roll for the perennially low-payroll Athletics to take. The velocity on the 31-year-old’s overpowering sinker dropped by a bit more than a mile per hour, and he saw his strikeout, walk, home-run and ground-ball rates all go in the wrong direction. That said, Treinen still whiffed more than a batter per inning with a respectable 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate and a ridiculous 37.9 percent opponents’ chase rate. A reliever with this type of upside at a projected $7.8MM price point is a gamble that clubs with deeper pockets should be happy to take. It’s possible to imagine a non-tender, but a trade feels likelier.

13. Keone Kela, RP, Pirates: Kela was part of a problematic clubhouse situation that can’t continue. He’s an affordable ($3.4MM projected) rental reliever who seems to have some upside. Teams may want a discount to account for Kela’s less-than-stellar reputation, but the Bucs may prefer to give it so that they can clear some salary, get a fresh start, and pick up some prospects.

14. Josh Bell, 1B, Pirates: It’s much the same here, except that the Bucs probably have greater reason to consider hanging onto Bell. For one thing, he’s only 27 years of age and is in his first season of arbitration eligibility ($5.9MM projection), so it’s possible to imagine him starring on a winning Pittsburgh club. For another, his monster early showing in 2019 ended in a somewhat tepid manner, so there’s an argument for allowing Bell some more time to boost his trade value. And then there’s the value of keeping a popular player around to boost fan interest and maintain some hope. (You might even squint and see an extension possibility, but good luck getting Scott Boras to bite.) But it’s actually rather a good time to be shopping a first baseman, all things considered. The Bucs can’t rule out a move if the right offer comes along.

15-16. Mychal Givens, RP, Orioles & Joe Jimenez, RP, Tigers: Have you looked recently at the state of the relief market? It isn’t exactly laden with guys that can generate a dozen strikeouts per nine. Givens and Jimenez each have that kind of swing-and-miss prowess. They each also coughed up nearly two dingers per nine innings — making them the most-2019 relievers in baseball? — and ended the year with substandard earned run averages. You can be sure there are multiple contending teams thinking about how to keep the Ks and reduce the long balls if they’re able to land one of these pitchers. Givens is more established, less youthful (29 vs 24), and costlier ($3.2MM arb projection vs pre-arb) than is Jimenez.

17. Corey Kluber, SP, Indians: The 33-year-old was highly effective in 2018 and struggled before a season-ending injury in 2019. Fortunately, the forearm fracture was a freak occurrence rather than a usage-based injury. But the outlook is unclear. His $17.5MM salary and remaining $18MM club option could be absolute bargains, or Kluber may be a shell of his former self. Another organization may be better situated to take on this risk/reward profile.

18. Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: Texas has a glut of left-handed-hitting outfield options with Mazara, Willie Calhoun, Joey Gallo and Shin-Soo Choo, though the latter is more of a DH candidate than an outfielder. Mazara only has two seasons of club control remaining, but he’s a 24-year-old former top prospect with some power who could pique the interest of other clubs. For teams who don’t want to pay a premium for the market’s top free agents, Mazara could be a reasonably priced alternative with yet-untapped upside.

19. Caleb Smith, SP, Marlins: Perhaps the Fish intend to hang onto their remaining young rotation pieces after swapping out Zac Gallen over the summer. But that deal also proved the Miami organization is willing to trade from its stock of controllable arms in some scenarios. Smith’s 2019 season had some parallels with that of the aforementioned Boyd, in that he showed intriguing strikeout ability but also succumbed to the long ball and faded down the stretch. Smith is also still a season away from arbitration eligibility, so there’s no rush to move him. (Fellow hurler Sandy Alcantara is a service class behind and even younger, so he seems less likely to be dealt.) But that could also make this an optimal time to swap Smith out for bigger value. The opportunity to generate bidding might increase if the aforementioned southpaws on this list end up staying put.

20-22. Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox; Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Cubs; Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians: What do you do when you’re a contending team with multiple remaining seasons of control over one of the best young players in baseball? Trade him, of course! That’s what many pundits would have us believe is actually possible, anyway. It’s somewhat easier to imagine in the case of Betts, since he’s so expensive ($27.7MM projection) and just one year from the open market. Then again, the Boston organization has some of the deepest pockets in the game and shouldn’t rule out a return to glory in 2020. It’d be awfully tough to justify moving Mookie unless new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom pulls off a real stunner. Viewed another way, Lindor seems likeliest to go. Prior extension talks have failed and he’s already spendy ($16.7MM) for the low-budget Indians. But doesn’t that organization simply need to try to capitalize on the still-open window while it has such a young star (among others)? As for Bryant … well, I’ll admit I don’t quite understand why his name has circulated the rumor mill. There are two years to go before free agency and he’s expensive ($18.5MM projected) but not onerous for the North Siders. It’s not likely he’ll ink an extension, but … shouldn’t they just cross that bridge when they come to it? The whole premise of the rebuild was to find players just like this and ride them to multiple World Series rings. There’s time yet to make good on that.

23. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs: Cubs ownership didn’t give Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer much latitude to spend last winter, and while that may not be the case this season, there’s also plenty of talk about some large-scale changes after another disheartening finish and a playoff miss. Contreras doesn’t rate as a quality defender behind the plate and is projected to earn a $4.5MM salary in 2020. If the Cubs feel that the defensive upgrade from Contreras to Victor Caratini is enough to offset the likely discrepancy between their offensive performances, there’s reason to look to move Contreras. Doing so would also be a means of acquiring young, controllable pitching — something the organization lacks — while freeing up some cash to perhaps add a bargain reliever or starter late in the winter.

24. Ian Kennedy, RP, Royals: The contract that the K.C. org gave Kennedy just hasn’t worked out as hoped. But there’s a chance to salvage something: a good portion of the $16.5MM still owed and perhaps some young talent to boot. The Braves took on Mark Melancon’s $14MM annual salary over the summer. Kennedy was just as impressive in 2019, when he threw 63 1/3 innings of 3.41 ERA ball with 10.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. And that came despite the fact that opposing hitters managed a .343 BABIP and produced a .291 wOBA that outstripped their .277 xwOBA. In other words, he may actually have been a bit unlucky. Kennedy’s stuff played way up in a relief role, as he pumped 95 mph heat and exhibited similar velo increases with his other offerings.

25. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies: This may just be a pet theory, but it seems that shipping out Blackmon represents the cleanest, most-achievable, least-painful way for the Rockies to relieve their payroll crunch. The 33-year-old has been a strong performer at the plate for four-straight seasons now and is fresh off of a .314/.364/.576 campaign. Everyone else with a big salary in Colorado is either a star still in his twenties or a veteran who has underperformed his contract. Blackmon’s deal includes $21MM salaries in each of the next two seasons, followed by successive player options (at $21MM and then at a floating price based upon plate appearances). It’s a big commitment. And Blackmon’s declining athleticism — he was once a 75th-percentile runner and is now in the bottom half of baseball in sprint speed — and messy defensive grades provide some cause for concern. But much like Zack Greinke, who was moved for significant young talent by the division-rival D-Backs, the contract could hold real appeal to teams surveying a rather tepid outfield market.

Others To Consider

Premium targets: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox; Mike Clevinger, SP, Indians; Jon Gray, SP, Rockies; Trevor Story, SS, Rockies; Brad Hand, RP, Indians; Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners; Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles; J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox; Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Red Sox; Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs; Marcus Semien, SS, Athletics

High-end targets whose GMs have declared unavailable: Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen has plainly stated (on multiple occasions) that he has no intention of trading Noah Syndergaard, and Royals GM Dayton Moore recently reiterated that the club has made an “advance decision” not to trade second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield (video link). Both players will probably hear their names surface on the rumor mill all the same, but it’s notable to have seen such definitive, public declarations.

Younger veterans with multi-year control: Johan Camargo, INF, Braves; J.D. Davis, INF/OF, Mets; Niko Goodrum, INF/OF, Tigers; Austin Hedges, C, Padres; Maikel Franco, 3B, Phillies; Ender Inciarte, OF, Braves; Manuel Margot, OF, Padres; Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres; Addison Russell, INF, Cubs; Albert Almora Jr., OF, Cubs; Domingo Santana, OF/DH, Mariners; Mallex Smith, OF, Mariners; Michael A. Taylor, OF, Nationals; Jose Urena, SP/RP, Marlins

Rental targets: Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Phillies; Jake Marisnick, OF, Astros; James McCann, C, White Sox; Joc Pederson, OF, Dodgers; Kevin Pillar, CF, Giants; Jurickson Profar, 2B, Athletics; Josh Reddick, OF, Astros; Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants; Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians

Veterans on expensive, multi-year contracts: Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants; Matt Carpenter, 3B/1B, Cardinals; Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants; Wade Davis, RP, Rockies; Ian Desmond, OF/IF, Rockies; Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals; Dee Gordon, 2B, Mariners; Evan Longoria, 3B, Giants; Jake McGee, RP, Rockies; Bryan Shaw, RP, Rockies; Wil Myers, OF, Padres; David Price, SP, Red Sox

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