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Archives for December 2021

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Kevin Plawecki

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The Red Sox announced that catcher Kevin Plawecki has agreed to a new contract for the 2022 season, thus avoiding salary arbitration.  The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports that Plawecki signed for $2.25MM, which tops MLBTR’s projected for a $2MM salary in Plawecki’s final year of arb eligibility.

Entering his third season as Boston’s backup catcher, Plawecki has hit .305/.364/.414 over 262 plate appearances with the Red Sox, an unexpectedly big step up from the .636 OPS he posted over his first 978 PA and five Major League seasons with the Mets and Guardians.  While Plawecki hit better than 2020 than in 2021, his bat helped prop up production from Boston’s catching position last season in the wake of a down year from starter Christian Vazquez.  Baseball Prospectus’ numbers rate Plawecki’s defense as pretty average across the board, while Fangraphs’ catching metrics give him -4 Defensive Runs Saved over his two years with the Sox.

Ryan Brasier also agreed to a deal with the Red Sox yesterday, so Boston has six players remaining (Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Nick Pivetta, Alex Verdugo, Christian Arroyo, and Josh Taylor) left on its list of arbitration eligibles.

Mets Sign Eduardo Escobar

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The Mets announced Wednesday they’ve signed free agent infielder Eduardo Escobar to a two-year guarantee with a 2024 club option. It’s reportedly a $20MM guarantee for the DJ Rengifo y Associates client. Entering the offseason, MLBTR ranked Escobar the game’s #35 free agent, forecasting him for the two-year, $20MM guarantee he ultimately landed.

Escobar gives the Mets cover at three infield positions, as he’s coming off a season in which he logged 100+ innings at each of first base, second base and third base. He also had extended run as a shortstop earlier in his career, but he’s only played two innings there over the past three years. Escobar doesn’t rate as a particularly strong defender anywhere on the diamond, but he’s at least capable of bouncing between a few spots on the dirt.

While that defensive versatility is a nice bonus, the calling card with Escobar has been his bat. He’s been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+ in each of the last three full seasons, unexpectedly morphing into a power threat late in his career. While he hit just 27 home runs over his first 1620 major league plate appearances, Escobar found another gear in that department in 2017. He hit 21 homers in 499 trips to the dish that season, and he’s knocked between 23 and 35 longballs with an above-average ISO (slugging minus batting average) in all three full campaigns since then.

Escobar has gotten to that increased impact without sacrificing much in the way of contact. He’s kept his strikeout rate right around 20% over the course of his career, around three percentage points below the league mark. His contact and swinging strike rates have also hovered right around average. And the switch-hitting Escobar has fared well from both sides of the plate. Going back to the start of 2018, he’s a .283/.333/.482 batter against left-handed pitching; his .249/.311/.473 mark against righties over that same stretch isn’t as impressive, but it’s still around league average output from his weaker side.

There’s a lot to like about Escobar’s offensive game, although he’s not completely without flaws. The Venezuela native had an awful .212/.270/.335 showing over 222 plate appearances in the truncated 2020 season. He bounced back to offer more typical .253/.314/.472 output between the D-Backs and Brewers in 2021. That clearly erased some doubts about Escobar’s 2020 struggles, but he’ll turn 33 years old in January. And even at his best, Escobar has an aggressive approach that tamps down his walk rate and leads to on-base percentages right around the league average.

Escobar is coming off his first career All-Star selection, but that nod was also influenced by the rule requiring an All-Star rep from every team and his presence on a lackluster Arizona club. He’s more solid regular than star, but Escobar was valued around three wins above replacement by each of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs in 2018, 2019 and 2021. The Mets will hope for more of that same steadiness over the coming seasons, and Escobar’s versatility enables Eppler and his staff to be flexible in building the infield around him.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso are ensconced at shortstop and first base, respectively. Second and third base are less settled, though, with Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis the respective in-house favorites at those spots. Both players can also man the corner outfield, and neither is without question marks. McNeil didn’t make his typical level of offensive impact in 2021, while Davis is a below-average defender at the hot corner. Davis, in particular, has been frequently mentioned as a speculative trade candidate — so much so that he’s even expressed some doubt about whether he’ll be back in Flushing next season. Robinson Canó is also slated to return from a season-long performance-enhancing drug suspension and could factor into the second base mix, although it remains to be seen how much faith a new front office head and manager will have in the 39-year-old veteran.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported that Escobar and the Mets were in agreement on a two-year contract. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first to report the $20MM guarantee as well as the presence of a 2024 club option.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds Have Had Recent Trade Talks Regarding Castillo, Gray, Mahle

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TODAY: The Rangers are one of the teams who have spoken to the Reds about their starters, according to Jon Morosi (via Twitter).

NOVEMBER 29: The Reds have had talks with multiple teams about starting pitchers Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Cincinnati has reportedly been open to dealing starting pitchers for weeks now, but Morosi suggests there have been recent discussions on all three from that trio.

Either Mahle (who has two years of control remaining after a breakout 2021) or Gray (who’s under contract for $10.2MM in 2022, with a $12MM club option for 2023) would figure to cost significantly less in prospect capital than would Castillo, whom Cincinnati is said to be loath to deal. Like Mahle, Castillo has two years of club control remaining. However, he also has a longer track record of consistent high-end production than Mahle, and he’s three years younger and less expensive than Gray, who is playing out the final two years of a contract extennsion.

An earlier report by Morosi had linked the Angels to Castillo, though he described those talks as “preliminary.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, however, that the Angels are at the “forefront” of the Castillo push, even as the Reds have told opposing GMs they prefer to hang onto their top starter.

Just how high a price Reds GM Nick Krall is asking for Castillo remains to be seen, but any team that’s come calling will have expected it to be high. In what was actually one of his lesser statistical seasons, Castillo posted a 3.98 ERA (3.75 FIP) across 187 2/3 innings against a career ERA of 3.72 (3.76 FIP) in parts of five major league seasons — all of which were spent playing his home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s also been remarkably durable, taking the ball at least 31 times in each of his full seasons (and 12 times in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).

Castillo also closed out the year in particularly impressive fashion, recovering from an ugly April/May showing to post a 2.73 ERA and 3.34 FIP over his final 135 1/3 frames. Combine that with an eminently reasonable $7.6MM projected salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and an additional year of club control, through the 2023 season, and it’s easy to see why the ask on Castillo would be sky-high.

The 32-year-old Gray, meanwhile, is plenty affordable in his own right. He hasn’t replicated the 2015 form that saw him finish third in AL Cy Young voting and may never reach that level again, but the right-hander has strongly bounced back from a poor showing with the Yankees that prompted his trade to Cincinnati.

In three years with the Reds, Gray carries a 3.49 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate that trounces the 20.9% mark he posted in his pre-Reds career. Last season’s 4.19 ERA was more solid than stellar, clearly, but Gray was also among the best in the game in terms of limiting hard contact. Most fielding-independent metrics feel he was quite a bit better than that baseline ERA indicates.

Mahle doesn’t carry the name value that his teammates do — but he’s developed into a quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons. Through his past 227 2/3 frames at the MLB level, Mahle owns a 3.72 ERA with an impressive 28.1% strikeout rate against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Walks and home runs have both been issues at times in his career, but he posted solid marks in both categories over the past two seasons — and one would imagine that a move away from Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park could also have a beneficial impact on his home-run rate.

Swartz projects a $5.6MM salary for Mahle, so any team acquiring him would have to figure it’s picking up two years of Mahle for under a total of $15MM in salary. There’s quite a bit of surplus value there, making Mahle a more enticing trade option than most would expect. Mahle turned 27 at the end of September, so he’ll pitch nearly all of the 2022 season at that age. Teams will likely view him as a pitcher whose stock is on the rise, and some may even have designs on extending him after a trade, given his age and recent strides.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/01/21

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Some recent minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Rockies have signed right-handed reliever J.D. Hammer to a minor league deal, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. In 23 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year in the Phillies’ organization, Hammer managed an ERA of 3.80 with a hefty 34.3% strikeout rate but also an elevated walk rate of 12.4%. At the big league level, he logged 20 innings with an ERA of 4.95, 23.4% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate. The Phils outrighted the 27-year-old at the end of the season and he elected free agency.
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve returned infielder Jake Hager to the organization on a minor league deal. Hager started 2021 in the Mets organization and then was designated for assignment and claimed on waivers three times, bouncing to the Brewers, Mariners and Diamondbacks. Arizona then outrighted him in September. The 28-year-old didn’t hit much in the big leagues this year, but in a tiny sample of 30 plate appearances over 14 games. He played 82 Triple-A games in 2021 between those four organizations, hitting .240/.311/.461.
  • The Giants have agreed to a minor league deal with right-handed reliever Trevor Hildenberger, according to the MLB.com transactions tracker. Hildenberger logged 2 1/3 MLB innings for the Mets this year before being claimed and outrighted by the Giants. In 23 Triple-A innings for Sacramento River Cats, the 30-year-old put up an ERA of 4.70 with a strikeout rate of 22.5% and walk rate of 12.7%.
  • The Nationals have signed infielder Richard Urena to a minor league deal, per the MLB.com transactions tracker. The 25-year-old has played in 91 big league games in his career but hasn’t cracked the majors since 2019. In 2021, he played 92 Triple-A games in the Blue Jays’ system, hitting .272/.310/.438.
  • Outfielder Henry Ramos is joining the KT Wiz of the KBO, as relayed by Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. The 29-year-old had an unbelievable Triple-A season in 2021, slashing .371/.439/.582 over 294 plate appearances. He was selected by the Diamondbacks in September and got into 18 games, hitting .200/.255/.300 over 55 plate appearances. He was outrighted by the DBacks in October.

Braves, Rangers Interested In Matt Olson

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As the Athletics prepare to reduce their payroll, first baseman Matt Olson stands out as an obvious and popular trade chip, even if Oakland naturally is asking for quite a bit in return for the All-Star.  The Braves are among the teams who have “checked in” with the A’s about Olson, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports, while Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News writes that the Rangers “have already begun investigating what it would take to get Olson.”

Atlanta’s interest in Olson is obviously viewed through the lens of the Freddie Freeman market, as there seems to be some level of increased chatter that Freeman might depart the Braves after 12 seasons, as the two sides have yet to agree on the length and dollar value of a new contract.  As Heyman notes, there is a general feeling that Freeman will ultimately wind up re-signing, but if not, Olson could be the Braves’ “contingency plan” if they have a sudden vacancy to fill at first base.

For the Rangers, adding Olson would be only the latest move for a club that has been one of the biggest stories of the free agent season.  Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Jon Gray, and Kole Calhoun have already been signed on the open market, though prying Olson away from the A’s would now carry a different cost for Texas in terms of younger talent.  While the A’s and Rangers have lined up on some very notable trades in recent years, it is possible Oakland might command a particular premium from Texas (or any other AL West suitor) to move Olson within the division.

One of baseball’s top all-around first basemen, Olson has won two Gold Gloves to go along with his big power numbers, and he is only entering his age-28 season.  Olson is also controlled via arbitration over the next two seasons, and while his $12MM projection for 2022 isn’t exactly light, it is still more than reasonable for a player of his caliber.

For the Braves, this salary would surely be a smoother fit in the long-term payroll plans than giving Freeman something in the realm of $160MM+ throughout his 30’s.  President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has said that the club’s payroll will rise in the wake of their World Series triumph, though a mega-deal for Freeman could itself take up all of that increase.  Anthopoulos has scored big on the free agent market during his time in Atlanta, though mostly on short-term contracts — if Freeman leaves and the asking price for Olson isn’t palatable, it is easy to see the Braves pivoting to a shorter-term first base option that wouldn’t cost a ton in either free agent dollars or prospect capital.

It’s safe to say that payroll isn’t quite as big a concern with the Rangers, given what they’re already invested in roster upgrades.  By that token, the Rangers might prefer to continue spending to address any needs rather than deal from their prospect base, though Grant observes that such middle-infield prospects as Justin Foscue, Davis Wendzel, Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith could now be trade candidates in the wake of the Seager/Semien additions.  Texas also has a good first base option already on hand in Nathaniel Lowe, yet Lowe (who is controlled through 2026) would also seem like the kind of trade chip that the Athletics would seek out as an Olson replacement at first base.

Blue Jays Release Breyvic Valera

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The Blue Jays announced yesterday that infielder Breyvic Valera has been released.  Valera will be joining another league overseas (hat tip to Sportsnet’s Hazel Mae).

The Jays acquired Valera in a waiver claim off the Yankees’ roster in September 2019, only for the Padres to claim him away in February 2020 before Toronto re-claimed him in July of that year.  Valera spent the 2020 season on the restricted list due to travel difficulties in leaving his native Venezuela during the midst of the pandemic, but he made it back this past year and appeared in 39 games.

Valera (who turns 30 in January) hit .253/.313/.356 over 97 plate appearances in 2021, which marked his fourth season of MLB action.  Over 235 PA with the Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Cardinals, the well-traveled infielder has a career slash line of .236/.302/.322, though he has hit considerably better in the minors, batting .303/.377/.443 over 1730 PA at Triple-A.

Known more for his versatility than his bat, Valera has played mostly at second base and third base as a big leaguer, but has played everywhere but catcher and pitcher during his minor league career.  It is quite possible Valera could turn up again in North American baseball, though he’ll find more opportunity and regular playing time in a foreign league than he would battling several other free agents for minor league deals heading into the 2022 Major League season.

Rangers Sign Jon Gray

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The Rangers continue their offseason spending spree, announcing agreement Wednesday on a four-year contract with right-hander Jon Gray. It’s reportedly a $56MM guarantee for the CAA Sports client. Gray will make $15MM apiece over the next two seasons, followed by successive $13MM salaries in 2024-25 on the front-loaded deal.

After signing Marcus Semien to a huge seven-year, $175MM deal and then adding Kole Calhoun to the outfield on another free agent deal, Texas has now addressed its pitching staff with another veteran addition.  The Rangers emerged as a suitor for Gray a few days ago, and they beat out the division rival Angels, as well as the Tigers and Mets as teams known to have interest in signing the 30-year-old.

Jon Gray verticalThe four-year, $56MM pact exactly matches MLBTR’s projection for Gray, who ranked 19th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  The Rangers’ offer was also north of the three-year extension offer the Rockies reportedly made Gray prior to the end of the season, which was said to be somewhere around $35-$40MM in value.  While Gray only got a bit more extra in average annual value, he’ll also gain an extra year of security, and also now get to pitch in a more hurler-friendly venue than Coors Field.

The third overall pick of the 2013 draft, Gray has spent his entire MLB career with Coors Field as his home ballpark, and for the most part has acquitted himself a lot better than most at the notoriously hitter-friendly stadium.  Gray has a career 4.54 ERA in home games, with that number inflated by some rough outings over the smaller sample size of 45 1/3 innings over the 2015 and 2020 seasons.  While Gray also has a 4.65 ERA over 412 2/3 career innings in road games, several players (both pitchers and hitters) have talked about how playing in Denver’s thin air impacts adjustments throughout an entire season, so it could be that getting out of Coors Field entirely will allow Gray to unlock a new level of performance.

Several rival teams have long speculated that Gray’s stuff would thrive in a more normalized pitching environment, given what he already showed as a Rockie.  Gray has a career 46.7% grounder rate, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 7.9% walk rate over his career, all above-average metrics.  The righty’s fastball that has averaged 95.2 mph over his career, and that high-velo heater is augmented by an above-average spin rate on his curveball.

Focusing on Gray’s positives while attributing his negatives only to Coors Field isn’t wise, however, as there are some concerns about whether or not Gray can be a true front-of-the-rotation pitcher.  He has given up quite a bit of hard contact over his career and his fastball (while quick) is lacking in spin rate.  Injuries have also been a factor — Gray tossed only 39 innings in 2020 due to shoulder inflammation, and he missed time this year with a flexor strain and forearm tightness, though those two IL stints only totaled roughly a month.

The Rangers are making a $56MM bet that Gray’s best is yet to come, and it’s a risk the team can afford to take given how much money Texas is reportedly willing to spend on payroll this winter.  Between Gray, Semien, and Calhoun, the Rangers have added $44.2MM in average annual value to next year’s payroll alone, which might represent less than half of the team’s work if they really are prepared to top last year’s mark by $100MM.

Gray immediately becomes the most experienced arm of a Rangers rotation that features Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Spencer Howard, Glenn Otto, and A.J. Alexy all in the mix for starting jobs.  Dunning and Hearn seem like the only members of that group who are assured of rotation spots, and while Texas won’t sideline all of its younger arms with veteran, there is certainly still room for another notable addition or two beyond Gray.

Beyond the money, Gray doesn’t cost the Rangers anything further in terms of compensation, as the Rockies didn’t issue Gray a qualifying offer.  While there was some expectation that Gray might have taken the one-year, $18.4MM contract if Colorado had made it, the amount of interest in Gray’s services makes that scenario seem a little unlikely in hindsight.  If Gray had accepted, the Rockies would have still retained a pitcher they had obvious interest in keeping, even if at a higher price point than they would have preferred.  Without the QO involved, however, the Rockies now don’t receive any draft pick compensation for Gray’s departure.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was first to report the Rangers and Gray were closing in on an agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided reported that an agreement had been reached. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the four-year, $56MM guarantee. Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reported the breakdown of terms.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Brewers Sign Rex Brothers To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers have signed veteran left-handed reliever Rex Brothers to a minor league deal, per a team announcement. Brothers will receive an invitation to spring training.

Brothers, who turns 34 this month, signed a minor league deal with the Cubs in February and ended up having an up-and-down season. On June 27, he was sitting on an ERA of 2.63 through 27 1/3 innings. However, it was a steep slide from there, as he struggled down the stretch and finished the season with an ERA of 5.26 over 53 innings. Walks have been an especially troublesome issue for Brothers, as he’s never posted a walk rate lower than 11.4% in a given season and has a career rate of 13.5%. But that also comes with tantalizing strikeout numbers, as evidenced by his 27.6% career strikeout rate. 2021 was even more extreme, with a strikeout rate of 31.8% and walk rate of 14.8%.

The best stretch of his career was with the Rockies from 2011 to 2013, as he threw 175 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.82, strikeout rate of 29.1% and walk rate of 12.4%. Brothers then endured a miserable 2014, as his ERA shot up to 5.59, and then only saw limited big league action over the next six years, logging 37 1/3 total innings from 2015 to 2020.

Like most southpaws, Brothers is more effective against lefties, but his splits aren’t drastic. Over his career, he’s held lefties to a line of .214/.336/.321, with righties slashing .253/.351/.418.

Blue Jays Sign Kevin Gausman

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The Blue Jays have made another big strike in free agency, signing right-hander Kevin Gausman to a five-year, $110MM deal.  As per Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (Twitter link), Gausman will earn $21MM in each of the next two seasons, $22MM in 2024, and $23MM in 2025 and 2026.  Gausman is represented by Tidal Sports.

The signing represents the end of a rather lengthy courtship, as the Blue Jays’ interest in Gausman dates back to at least the 2019-20 offseason, when the right-hander was coming off a rough season split between the Braves and Reds.  After being non-tendered by Cincinnati, Gausman instead opted to sign with the Giants on a one-year, $9MM deal, and after a very successful 2020 season, he chose to accept the Giants’ $18.9MM qualifying offer to return to San Francisco.  The Jays were one of the teams who floated a multi-year offer Gausman’s way, but he turned down the Jays’ reported three-year offer in the $40MM range to instead try and further bolster his value with another strong year with the Giants.

Kevin GausmanOver two years in San Francisco, Gausman not only bounced back from his tough 2019 numbers, but hit a new plateau of success.  Gausman posted a 3.00 ERA/3.38 SIERA over his 251 2/3 innings as a Giant, with an excellent 30% strikeout rate and a solidly above-average 6.5% walk rate.

While Gausman pitched well over 59 2/3 innings in the shortened 2020 season, he duplicated his performance over a full year in 2021, tossing 192 frames and finishing sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting.  One notable wrinkle between the two years was that Gausman increased the use of his split-finger fastball to a career-high 36.6% in 2021, and Gausman’s splitter became one of the more devastating pitches in any arsenal in baseball.

The 192 innings marked a new career high for Gausman, though he was a solid workhorse while averaging 183 IP per year from 2016-18 with the Orioles and Braves.  It is worth noting that Gausman was much better in the first half (1.73 ERA in 114 2/3 IP) than he was after the All-Star break (4.42 ERA over 77 1/3 IP) last year, yet some regression might have been inevitable given that gaudy 1.73 number.  Gausman was also dealing with hip soreness for much of the year, and it could be that he simply started to wear down as many starters did while getting back to a regular workload following the shorter 2020 season.

The Blue Jays got plenty of looks at Gausman during his Orioles days, but while Gausman was a decent but unspectacular member of Baltimore’s rotation, he will now be expected to replicate his front-of-the-rotation numbers from 2020-21.  Toronto has been focusing on the pitching market for much of the winter, and in landing Gausman, it is possible the club has now its replacement for Robbie Ray, should Ray sign elsewhere in free agency.

MLBTR ranked Gausman fifth on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and his contract falls a bit shy of our six-year, $138MM projection.  However, it appears as though Gausman did leave some money on the table to join the Blue Jays, as SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that the Mets offered Gausman a larger deal than Toronto’s five years and $110MM.  The Giants were also known to be making a solid push to retain Gausman, while the Angels, Mariners, and Red Sox all had some degree of interest.  Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports that the Sox didn’t offer “anything real” to Gausman during their negotiations.

Gausman (who turns 31 in January) joins Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah as the four locks in the Jays rotation, with former top prospect Nate Pearson favored for the fifth spot, and Ross Stripling and Anthony Kay on hand if Pearson struggles or runs into more injury problems.  Between Gausman’s deal, Berrios’ seven-year/$131MM extension, Ryu signed for two more seasons, and Manoah and Pearson providing lower-cost control as the starters of the future, Toronto has built a solid core of arms that the club hopes can withstand the stiff competition of the AL East.

The Gausman signing could also close the door on the chances of Ray re-signing with the Jays, and Toronto has also lost another starter in Steven Matz, who signed a four-year pact with the Cardinals.  It seems possible that the Blue Jays might yet seek out another lower-cost depth arm to compete with Pearson and company, perhaps looking to strike big on another bounce-back candidate as they did with Ray and Matz last winter.

Since Gausman had already been issued a qualifying offer in his career, he was ineligible to receive another one this time around in free agency, meaning the Blue Jays don’t have to give up any draft picks as compensation for his services.  The Jays have already landed one compensatory pick when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers, and would receive another if Ray signed elsewhere since both Ray and Semien rejected Toronto’s qualifying offers.  With this extra draft capital on hand, the Blue Jays might be more open to now signing a QO free agent of their own, as they were able to land their sought-after rotation upgrade in Gausman without the cost of any picks.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter) reported that the Jays and Gausman had reached an agreement.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted earlier in the day that the two sides were “gaining momentum towards a deal,” and Morosi’s earlier reports suggested that Gausman would land a five-year deal in the $100MM range, with the Jays as a finalist for the right-hander’s services.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Giants Sign Alex Cobb

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The Giants have continued to build their rotation by signing right-hander Alex Cobb.  The Beverly Hills Sports Council client signed a two-year contract worth $20MM in guaranteed money, and Cobb is set to earn $9MM in each of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.  San Francisco also holds a $10MM club option on Cobb for 2024, with a $2MM buyout.

Cobb spent the 2021 campaign in Orange County, after the Angels acquired him from the Orioles last winter. It was an eyebrow-raising move at the time, since Cobb had struggled with both injuries and underperformance over his three seasons in Baltimore. The ten-year big league veteran rewarded the organization’s faith, though, tossing 93 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA/3.83 SIERA ball across 18 starts.

Along the way, Cobb generated more whiffs than he ever had before. His 11.2% swinging strike rate and 24.9% strikeout percentage were both career-best marks, each checking in a touch above the respective league averages for starting pitchers. Cobb paired that uptick in whiffs with his typically robust ground-ball tendencies (53.3%) and solid control (8.4% walk rate) en route to a nice season.

Cobb’s run prevention numbers were partially propped up by one of the league’s lowest home run rates (0.48 per nine innings). It’s unlikely he’ll continue to be quite that successful keeping the ball in the yard moving forward. But Cobb’s blend of average or better whiffs, control and grounders should allow him to be a solid back-of-the-rotation option even if his homer rate regresses. The bigger concern might lie in his health, as he had separate injured list stints this past season due to blisters and right wrist inflammation. Cobb didn’t seem any worse for wear after returning from his time on the IL, though, with the velocity on all of his offerings remaining intact during his final few outings of the year.

The Giants entered the offseason known to be targeting rotation help. Only Logan Webb remained under club control from the team’s primary five this past season. They’ve already re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and reportedly were nearing agreement to bring Alex Wood back. Kevin Gausman’s departure to the Blue Jays leaves one prominent vacancy, though, and teams often have to rely on seven or eight starters to navigate the injury attrition of a full season.

There’s still room for further additions to the rotation, and there should be plenty of spending capacity with which to do so. Cobb’s two-year, $20MM guarantee narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $16MM forecast entering the winter.

The Giants now have a little more than $113MM in estimated 2022 commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. For a franchise that has logged player payrolls in the $200MM range in the past, a fairly modest Cobb signing shouldn’t be especially prohibitive to the club’s future goals.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) first reported that the deal was being finalized, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported the club was making a strong run at the right-hander last week.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported the $20MM figure, NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic (Twitter link) reported the existence of the option year, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted the salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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