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Dipoto: Mariners Not Willing To Supplant J.P. Crawford At Shortstop

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Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto spoke to reporters during this week’s GM meetings, offering a lot of insight into how the team plans to operate this offseason. While Dipoto delivered coy equivocations like “It’s incumbent on us to go add where we can add and improve where we can improve,” he did draw some lines in the sand that may dictate the Mariners’ involvement in certain markets this winter.

One such line in the sand, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, was Dipoto’s proclamation that J.P. Crawford will remain the team’s starting shortstop going into next season. Dipoto had already gone on record about the team’s desire to supplement their core with versatile free agents, which notably meant surrounding building blocks like Crawford with talent instead of outright replacing them.

While it won’t register as much of a surprise that a team wants to keep its Gold Glove-capable shortstop entrenched at the position, it is notable at this point to mention which contenders may turn their nose up at the star shortstops on this year’s market. Even if the Mariners dabble in the shortstop market this summer however, Dipoto made it clear that any free agent will be asked to move off the position in deference to Crawford.

There was another line Seattle’s top decision maker has indicated his team is unwilling to cross: no trades of top prospects. “There’s no scenario where we will move the top prospects in our system, the guys who are prominent in our system” stated Dipoto, per Corey Brock of the Athletic.  Seattle has been in prospect accumulation mode for a few seasons now, launching their farm system into the number two spot on MLB Pipeline’s most recent league wide ranking. It’s hard to fault the famously trade-happy Dipoto for taking a more measured approach with his prospect capital this offseason— after all, top prospects like Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby can save the team millions of dollars if they prove Major League-ready next year.

As far as free agents are concerned, Dipoto expects to be more engaged in that part of the player-accumulation process than he has in the past. Brock recites some previously speculated free agent targets that fit the versatile player mold Seattle is aiming for, like Kris Bryant and Marcus Semien, while also throwing less heralded utility man Leury Garcia’s name into the mix. Additionally, the team will look to add multiple starters to the rotation this winter, with Brock speculating Jon Gray, Marcus Stroman, and Anthony DeSclafani as potential fits.

Divish, meanwhile, reported some updates on the existing roster, which will help inform the team (and its fans) which free agents are worth pursuing. Notably, Ty France has been told he will be the team’s starting first baseman next season. Recovering first baseman and previous Gold Glove winner Evan White has been tasked with getting some reps in left field to increase his positional versatility, though the team will continue to view him as a first base-first option. Dipoto all but confirmed that the current catching triumvirate Tom Murphy, Cal Raleigh, and Luis Torrens (plus Jose Godoy) will stick into next season as well.

To top it all off, Dipoto also offered some news on a few of the team’s most foundational pieces. Kyle Lewis, for instance, continues to recover from knee surgery and is questionable for Spring Training. Fellow outfielder Jarred Kelenic is healthy, but can perhaps attribute some of his debut season underperformance to playing center field. Dipoto acknowledged that the 22-year-old Kelenic is not an optimal fit in center field but will likely continue to see playing time there next season due to market scarcity at the position and existing organizational depth. In one last piece of positive health news, Justin Dunn has also been cleared for a normal offseason and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

NPB Notes: Cardinals, Martinez, Suarez, Red Sox, Suzuki

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The Cardinals are among the teams with interest in right-hander Nick Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link). Martinez, who will reach free agency at the start of December, is coming off a dominant showing with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Over 140 2/3 innings, the 31-year-old worked to a 1.60 ERA, striking out a quarter of the batters he faced in the process. After a four-season run in Japan, that strong 2021 campaign could earn Martinez another MLB look this offseason. Heyman suggests upwards of a third of MLB teams could join St. Louis in having interest in giving Martinez another opportunity stateside, although it stands to reason the Hawks would like to re-sign their star hurler as well.

A couple more notes on players currently in Japan’s top league:

  • Robert Suárez is on the radar of multiple major league teams, according to a Japanese-language report from Yahoo! Japan (h/t to Sung Min Kim). The 30-year-old has posted incredible numbers serving as the Hanshin Tigers’ closer over the past two seasons. After working to a 2.24 ERA in 52 1/3 innings in 2020, Suárez dominated to the tune of a 1.16 mark across 62 1/3 frames this past season. His peripherals were equally impressive, as the righty struck out 25.3% of opposing hitters against a minuscule 3.5% walk percentage. Suárez has never pitched in the majors but reportedly also caught the attention of big league clubs last winter.
  • The Red Sox are among the teams to have scouted NPB star Seiya Suzuki, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. They’re certainly not alone in that regard, as the Hiroshima Carp outfielder has long been regarded as one of the top talents in Japan. The Carp will make Suzuki available to major league clubs this winter via the posting system, coming off a season in which the 27-year-old mashed at a .319/.436/.644 clip with 38 homers in 530 plate appearances. Between his youth, huge numbers in NPB, and scouting reports that suggest he could immediately step in as an above-average major league right fielder, Suzuki should be one of the winter’s most in-demand free agents. MLBTR projects he’ll land a five-year, $55MM contract — an investment that would cost an MLB team $65.125MM after accounting for the posting fee that would be owed to the Carp were Suzuki to land a $55MM guarantee.

Andrew Friedman Discusses Clayton Kershaw QO Decision

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The Dodgers made the surprising decision not to issue a qualifying offer to Clayton Kershaw before Sunday afternoon’s deadline. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (Twitter link) this evening that call was not any sort of indication the team wants to move forward without the three-time Cy Young award winner.

“We’ve made it very clear that if Kersh wants to come back, he will always have a spot with what he’s meant to this organization — not just looking back but with what we think he can do for us next year,” Friedman said. “I know (Kershaw) wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them and also more importantly, get to a point where he feels good health wise. We have no reason to believe that he won’t.”

As for why the Dodgers declined to issue Kershaw a qualifying offer if they were open to him returning in 2022, Friedman implied it was an appreciative gesture on the organization’s part. “I think just with our respect for him and for what he’s done for this organization, that wasn’t something that we wanted to do and put him on that kind of clock when he wasn’t ready for it,” Friedman told Ardaya.

Players tagged with a qualifying offer have until November 17 to decide whether to accept the offer or reject it to explore the free agent market. With Kershaw’s apparent desire to spend some time with his family and continue to rehab the elbow injury that ended his season prematurely, the Dodgers determined not to put an artificial clock on his decision-making process.

There’s no questioning Kershaw’s status as a franchise icon. He’s won five ERA titles and an MVP award over his illustrious career, and he’ll one day wind up in the Hall of Fame wearing a Dodger cap. As Friedman suggested, Kershaw’s still capable of being highly productive, even if his days as the game’s best pitcher are probably behind him. Over 121 2/3 innings, the 33-year-old worked to a 3.55 ERA this past season. That kind of production would upgrade any team’s rotation, so it’s easy to understand the Dodgers’ openness to bringing Kershaw back even before considering his legacy.

Athletics Appear Set For Significant Payroll Reduction

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7:29 pm: Forst addressed the club’s likely forthcoming payroll cuts this evening, telling Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) the team is willing to field offers for any player on the roster. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”

10:30 am: The Athletics’ stunning decision to let manager Bob Melvin leave to sign a three-year deal as the Padres’ new manager served as a portent for a bleak winter in Oakland, only increasing prior expectations that a payroll reduction was on the horizon. General manager David Forst spoke with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and others at this week’s GM Meetings, and while he didn’t outright say that the team plans to reduce its bottom line in 2022, he implied that another “step back” is certainly a possibility.

“I think right now we’re in the middle of those conversations with [ownership],” said Forst. “We don’t have exact direction yet. But you look at our history, and we have three- or four-year runs and recognize where we are makes it necessary to step back. But we have not gotten to that point yet with ownership.”

While Forst understandably sidestepped a definitive declaration on the team’s payroll direction, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that a pair of MLB executives told him Oakland is expected to slash payroll to as little as $50MM. One potential wrinkle as the A’s look to cut payroll, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, is the uncertainty surrounding the collective bargaining agreement. The league’s initial offer to the MLBPA included a proposed salary floor (in exchange for a reduction of the luxury tax threshold — a nonstarter for the players’ side of negotiations). Even though the MLBPA had no interest in the specifics of that particular proposal, the eventual possibility of a salary floor could come back to haunt the A’s if they gut the payroll early in the winter.

One way or another, it seems quite likely that the current Athletics’ core is going to be broken up this offseason — the question is to what extent rather than whether it’ll happen at all. Such an outcome wasn’t exactly difficult to foresee. I explored back in early September how, based on their typical payroll levels, the A’s were unlikely to spend to keep a deep arbitration class after projected raises to the likes of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas (among others). Retaining that group would require an increase over this season’s $83.8MM payroll — already the fourth-highest in franchise history and not far below the team record of $92MM. That increase would come before making a single addition to the 2022 roster.

When looking for trade candidates on the Oakland roster, the top of that arbitration class is the most obvious place to begin. At $12MM, Olson leads the bunch in terms of expected salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s end-of-year projections. Each of Manaea ($10.2MM), Chapman ($9.5MM), Bassitt ($8.8MM) and Montas ($5.2MM) is also set to account for a notable portion of the team’s payroll next season.

The A’s would surely be open to moving outfielder Stephen Piscotty (still owed $8.25MM, including a 2023 option buyout) and shortstop Elvis Andrus ($7.25MM through 2022 after accounting for the portion of his salary paid by the Rangers). Neither player has much in the way of trade value at this point, however. Oakland currently projects for a payroll just north of $85MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure includes MLBTR’s projected arb salaries, the two guaranteed contracts and a slate of pre-arb salaries to round out the roster.

Olson, Chapman and Montas all have two years of club control remaining. Manaea and Bassitt are set to become free agents next winter. While it’s possible, if not likely, that other players on the Oakland roster will also see their names pop up in trade talks, that quintet offers the best blend of productivity, affordability (for other clubs) and trade value (for the A’s). Here’s a quick, high-level look at each:

  • Olson (28 next year): A 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, Olson leads all first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved and a 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating since 2017. He’s sixth among first basemen in Statcast’s Outs Above Average during that time. Olson swatted a career-best 39 home runs in 2021 and, most importantly, cut his once-problematic strikeout rate to an 16.8% level that is well below the league average. Olson walks at a high clip, has massive left-handed power, plays elite defense and looks to have made huge gains in his contact skills. He hit .271/.371/.540 in 2021 despite a cavernous home stadium.
  • Chapman (29 next year): As with Olson, Chapman is a preternatural defender. Since 2017, the two-time Platinum Glover leads third basemen in DRS (78) and UZR (48.7) and trails only Nolan Arenado in OAA (48). Chapman has huge power, but his contact trends have gone in the opposite direction of Olson. Chapman, whose 2020 season ended early due to hip surgery, struck out at a 22.8% clip from 2018-19 but a 33.1% pace in 2020-21. The glove is still elite, and Chapman has still bashed 37 homers in his past 774 plate appearances while walking at an 11.4% clip. The current version of Chapman has huge value, but if the strikeouts decline as he further distances himself from the hip injury, he has MVP-caliber talent.
  • Manaea (30 next year): Manaea’s 2018 season ended with major shoulder surgery, and he missed most of 2019 while on the mend. Since returning, he’s delivered 263 innings of 3.73 ERA  ball with near-identical reviews from fielding-independent marks like FIP (3.64) and SIERA (3.78). In that time, Manaea has a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 5.2% walk rate and a 43.8% grounder rate — all strong marks. He moved from a four-seamer to a sinker this season, and the 92.2 mph average on that sinker was the best velocity on his primary offering since his four-seamer sat 93.1 mph as a rookie in 2016. He’s a one-year rental, but a good one.
  • Bassitt (33 next year): A frightening injury that saw Bassitt struck in the face by a 100 mph-plus line drive in August looked like it might end his season. Bassitt, however, returned from surgery to repair facial fractures on Sept. 23 and made two appearances to close out his season (6 1/3 innings, one run allowed). Since establishing himself as a big leaguer in 2018, the late-blooming righty has a 3.23 ERA, a 23.1% strikeout rate, a 7.1% walk rate and a 42.3% grounder rate in 412 innings. This past season’s 25% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate were career-highs. Like Manaea, Bassitt is a free agent next winter but would make a fine rental for a contender.
  • Montas (29 next year): Montas consistently averages better than 96 mph on his heater. The 2021 season was his first topping 100 innings, thanks to a combination of injuries, the shortened 2020 campaign and an 80-game PED ban. Lack of innings notwithstanding, Montas has been effective on the whole since 2018, logging a combined 3.57 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk rates. The 2021 season looked to be a true breakout, as Montas ranked ninth in MLB with 187 innings and turned in a 3.37 ERA with a career-high 26.6% strikeout rate.

The asking price on those players, and others, will vary based on expected earnings and remaining club control. It’s not a given that the A’s trade all five, of course, and it’s possible that even as they do make some changes on the roster, some of those dollars are reallocated to low-cost free agents.

In past trades of notable players, the A’s have tended to focus on upper-level prospects and young big leaguers who’ve yet to establish themselves rather than the lower-level types often targeted by teams commencing full teardowns. That’s not a guaranteed blueprint for how they’ll operate this winter, but the focus on near-term assets is part of the reason the A’s have managed to remain so competitive amid frequent “step backs,” regular roster turnover and perennial payroll constraints.

The extent of this ostensible “step back” will be partly determined by the extent to which ownership is willing to spend in future seasons, but the A’s have never embarked on the sort of lengthy, years-long rebuilds we’ve recently seen in Baltimore, Detroit and other places. Oakland has never had more than three straight losing seasons under Billy Beane and has just eight total losing records in Beane’s 24 full seasons leading baseball operations.

Tigers Outright Drew Carlton

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Tigers reliever Drew Carlton has cleared waivers and been outrighted off the 40-man roster, relays Evan Woodbery of MLive (Twitter link). Detroit’s 40-man roster tally now sits at 39.

Carlton was selected to make his big league debut in September. The 26-year-old made four appearances down the stretch, allowing a pair of runs on six hits and four walks with a strikeout over his first 3 2/3 MLB innings. That brief stint wasn’t great, but Carlton had a far more impressive showing throughout the year with the Mud Hens. He frequently worked multiple frames of relief in Triple-A, compiling 52 1/3 innings over 33 outings. In that time, Carlton posted an impressive 2.92 ERA with a fine 23.6% strikeout percentage and a stellar 4.8% walk rate.

The righty doesn’t have the requisite service time to refuse an outright assignment, so he’ll remain in the organization. Assuming he’s not selected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft, Carlton figures to get an opportunity to compete for a roster spot next Spring Training.

Nationals Re-Sign Sean Nolin, Alberto Baldonado

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The Nationals have re-signed left-handed pitchers Sean Nolin and Alberto Baldonado to minor league deals, reports The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty. Both pitchers saw game action at the Major League level this year for the Nats, though it’s easy to infer from the minor league nature of the deals that the results weren’t what either player was hoping for.

The 31-year-old Nolin is the more senior of the two, having bounced around quite a bit since his pro debut in 2010. In fact, dating back to Nolin’s first minor league action a decade ago, he has pitched just 58 innings at the Major League level, pitching overseas and on the Indie circuit sporadically throughout the past couple of years. Last offseason, the Nationals took a flier on the journeyman pitcher after a year abroad pitching for the Seibu Lions, assigning him to Triple-A where he posted serviceable numbers out of the rotation. Nolin was called up to the parent club in August and posted a 4.39 ERA in 26+ innings, albeit with troubling strikeout (16.3%) and walk rates (10.6%) as well as a suspension to show for his time.

Baldonado has had a similarly adventurous career, pitching in the Indie circuit as well as the Mexican League before making his Major League debut this past season for Washington. Like Nolin, Baldonado provided strong strikeout and run prevention numbers in Triple-A but ran into some difficulty after being promoted. Across 14 games, the 28-year-old rookie pitched 10+ innings of 8.44 ERA ball, showing slightly above average strikeout abilities (24.5% K rate) but offsetting that skill with seven walks and three home runs in limited action.

Carlos Martinez Begins Throwing Program

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Carlos Martínez has begun a throwing program in hopes of pitching in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). The 30-year-old didn’t pitch after undergoing surgery to repair a ligament tear in his right thumb in mid-July.

That injury brought an unceremonious early end to Martínez’s nine-season run with the Cardinals. After the season, the front office made the easy call to buy him out for $500K rather than exercise a $17MM club option covering the 2022 campaign. Even prior to the injury, the two-time All-Star had struggled mightily over the past couple seasons. Since the start of 2020, Martínez owns just a 6.95 ERA with a subpar 15.8% strikeout rate in 102 1/3 innings.

Martínez certainly won’t approach the $17MM option value during his first trip through free agency, but he profiles as one of the more interesting buy-low options available. While the last couple seasons have been very disappointing, Martínez was one of the game’s better starters early in his career. From 2015-18, he worked to a 3.22 ERA/3.58 FIP over 698 2/3 frames. He spent the 2019 campaign working in relief based on injury concerns, and he continued to thrive in shorter stints. Martínez posted a 3.17 ERA over 48 appearances out of the ’pen that year, inducing ground-balls at a massive 56.5% clip.

There’ll surely be teams interested in seeing whether Martínez can recapture any of his prior form, although he’ll likely be limited to incentive-laden, one-year offers after the last two years. It’s possible some clubs could view him as a better option in short stints once again, and Goold adds that the right-hander is amenable to working in relief in 2022. The hope would be to stay healthy with a smaller workload and rebuild his value with better numbers before eventually lengthening back out as a starter over the long term. The robustness of his free agent market could very well depend on the quality of his stuff in winter ball, but it’s at least promising to hear he’s now healthy enough to begin throwing after a four-month recovery period.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs traded away their core rather than extend them, and now the club is light on financial commitments as well as good MLB players.  Is this winter the time to strike?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jason Heyward, RF: $44MM through 2023
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $29.5MM through 2023.  Includes $16MM club option for 2024
  • Wade Miley, SP: $10MM through 2022
  • David Bote, 2B/3B: $13MM through 2024.  Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for ’26

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Wade Miley, SP: exercised $10MM club option after claiming off waivers from Reds

Free Agents

When the dust had settled after the July deadline, the Cubs had completed eight trades.  Of the nine players sent packing, seven are currently free agents, Trevor Williams might be non-tendered by the Mets, and the White Sox picked up Craig Kimbrel’s option.  Seeing Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez in different uniforms marked the end of an era, and now the Cubs have a bunch of extra prospects and a clean financial slate.  They’ve also got a new second-in command in the front office behind Jed Hoyer in Carter Hawkins, hired from Cleveland.  The Cubs went on to hire Ehsan Bokhari from the Astros as assistant GM and Greg Brown from the Rays as the new hitting coach.  Furthermore, longtime executive Jason McLeod is leaving, and Randy Bush is moving into an advisory role.

Hoyer said in late September, “We plan to be really active in free agency.”  Trying to decode GM-speak is always difficult, but Hoyer elaborated a few weeks later, saying, “We have money to spend this winter. But it’s really important that we do that in an intelligent way.”  Furthermore, “We need to be active in a way that we feel like we’re getting the right value for the dollars we’re spending, and we’re also making sure that we’re not hindering ourselves going forward with expenditures for right now.”  Hoyer went on to caution against “winning the offseason.”

MLBTR projected its top 12 free agents to each receive contracts of at least five years, with the exception of record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer.  When I try to translate spending money “intelligently” and “not hindering ourselves going forward,” I take it to mean that the Cubs won’t sign any of those top dozen or so free agents.  Hoyer has stated that the Cubs “have a lot of holes to fill on this roster,” which is a euphemism for a lack of present MLB talent.  The Cubs will shop at the top end of the free agent market again, but I don’t think it will be this winter.

So what will the Cubs do?  Hoyer made it clear that adding pitchers, particularly those with strikeout ability, is the team’s top priority.  So why, then, did the club commit $10MM to 35-year-old lefty Wade Miley, who the payroll-cutting Reds cast off after a fine season?  Miley possesses a 90 mile per hour fastball and the sixth-worst strikeout rate in baseball this year among those with at least 160 innings.  The answer is that Miley is still a solid pitcher, the only cost was his salary, and it’s a one-year commitment.  For a team with no rotation locks beyond fellow soft-tosser Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs took the opportunity that fell into their lap.  Miley’s best attribute is his ability to generate weak contact, as he ranked fourth in baseball in average exit velocity.

The Cubs may yet add two or three starting pitchers to the rotation.  As far as potential free agent targets, let’s cross off those seeking five-plus years or an immediate shot at a championship.  We’re left with Carlos Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez, Alex Wood, Yusei Kikuchi, and Jon Gray atop the strikeout leaderboard.  We believe Rodriguez may require a four-year deal, plus Boston’s qualifying offer means the Cubs would sacrifice their second-round draft pick.  Noah Syndergaard comes with that same draft pick problem, if he even reaches the open market.  Rolling the dice on Rodon makes some level of sense, in that the Cubs wouldn’t be hampered by a deal anywhere from one to three years, and he offers possible ace-like pitching without a $100MM commitment if the club rolls the dice on his health.  Rodon is the moon shot option, while Wood, Kikuchi, Gray, and James Paxton are safer choices.  Free agency also offers pitchers with decent velocity if not the strikeout rate, like Steven Matz, Garrett Richards, and Anthony DeSclafani.

The trade market is also an option for the Cubs, who could offer one year of Willson Contreras, deal away some of their prospect capital, or just take on an unwanted contract.  Strikeout pitchers who could be available in trade include Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Frankie Montas, Zac Gallen, Sean Manaea, Chris Paddack, Chris Bassitt, Caleb Smith, and Luis Castillo.  The Rays’ Tyler Glasnow makes sense for the Cubs, even though he won’t be recovered from Tommy John surgery until the 2023 season.  Indeed, such a trade was considered back in July.   The Tigers’ Matthew Boyd, who underwent flexor tendon surgery in September, may be non-tendered by the Tigers and also makes sense for the Cubs.  Back when the Cubs had some money to burn, they signed Drew Smyly to a two-year, $10MM deal off Tommy John surgery with an eye entirely on the second season.

Three of the best trade targets are on the Reds, who may be reluctant to trade a starter to the division-rival Cubs in addition to Miley.  The idea of the Cubs reacquiring Darvish one year after his trade somewhat kicked off their rebuild is too amusing not to mention.  After the Cubs shipped Darvish and backup catcher Victor Caratini to San Diego for four low-minors prospects and Zach Davies, Darvish went on to post a 2.44 ERA through the season’s first half.  He got blasted (mostly by home runs) in the second half to the tune of a 6.65 ERA.  Darvish is owed $37MM over the next two years, and the Cubs suddenly have the payroll flexibility the Padres desire.  Just saying, it’d be fun to see.

The bullpen is another clear need for the Cubs, who are left with guys like Codi Heuer and Rowan Wick atop their depth chart.  A few cheap free agent investments make sense here.

The Cubs’ infield is mostly set, with Willson Contreras at catcher, Frank Schwindel at first, Nick Madrigal at second, Nico Hoerner at short, and Patrick Wisdom at third.  While Schwindel (age 30) and Wisdom (29) aren’t likely long-term solutions, they’ve at least earned at-bats in 2022.  The Cubs also have to see if a Madrigal-Hoerner double-play combination has staying power.

With one year of control remaining on Contreras, the Cubs enter into the familiar “extend or trade” territory that led to their July sell-off.  The free agent market is weak at the position, and teams like the Yankees, Guardians, Rangers, Marlins, and Giants might be seeking catching help.

Ian Happ avoided a possible non-tender by posting a 147 wRC+ over the season’s final two months.  He figures to hold down left field, while Rafael Ortega can keep center field warm until the Cubs deem top prospect Brennen Davis ready.  In right, there’s Jason Heyward and the $44MM owed to him over the next two years.  After a brutal 68 wRC+ in 2021, the Cubs probably can’t justify a roster spot for Heyward through all of ’22 unless he manages at least league average hitting.  While the Cubs could explore a potential bad contract swap, they’re in more of a position to take on dead money as a means of accumulating yet more prospects.

One outfield addition that could make sense for the Cubs is right fielder Seiya Suzuki.  It’s nearly impossible to project what level of contract Suzuki will require if he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp, but he’s only 27 years old and is one of the best players in Japan.  Signing him would be akin to the club’s $30MM deal for Jorge Soler, which occurred about eight months into Jed Hoyer’s tenure with the team.

We’re about to embark on a free agency experience unlike anything we’ve seen in recent years, with a probable lockout followed by a compressed signing period.  If some players fall through the cracks in that scenario, the Cubs are well-positioned to make opportunistic strikes with one-year offers.  With Heyward, Hendricks, Miley, David Bote, Contreras, and Happ, the Cubs have an estimated $63.7MM committed for six players.  As a team capable of sustaining a payroll in excess of $200MM, the Cubs are a sleeping giant right now.  In reference to the Giants, Hoyer said, “They certainly didn’t win the offseason last year. They won the season.”  While I can say with certainty the Cubs won’t win 107 games in 2022, it’s clear that the team would prefer to avoid the top end of free agency this winter, become a surprise contender, and then look to flex its financial muscle.

Verlander Showcase Draws Scouts From 15-20 Teams

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Two-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who has pitched just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season due to 2020 Tommy John surgery, held a free-agent showcase this week. Representatives from as many as 15 to 20 teams this week, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, adding that Verlander’s fastball was clocked from 94 to 97 mph. He’s presently about 13 and a half months out from the surgery and will be 17 months removed from the procedure by the time Spring Training is set to begin.

As one would expect, the list of known teams in attendance at the showcase includes a blend of big-market contenders and a few rebuilding clubs looking to turn the corner and get back into competitive ball. Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic tweets that the Yankees, Rangers and Tigers were in attendance. Sherman notes that the Mets had two scouts present for Verlander’s workout. TSN’s Scott Mitchell adds the Blue Jays to the pile, and the Post’s Ken Davidoff lists the Giants as another suitor. Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that the Halos had someone present to watch Verlander as well (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Sam Blum).

Of course, given the stage of the offseason we’re at, it’s safe to assume that virtually any team with a modicum of 2022 postseason hope and/or any actual money to spent this offseason was at least present to gauge Verlander’s readiness. As Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom asked rhetorically when confirming his club’s presence at the showcase (link via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe): “Age might affect the term you consider, but if the present ability is there, why wouldn’t you be interested?”

By all accounts, the showcase went quite well. Beyond the multiple reports pegging Verlander’s velocity in the mid- to upper-90s, Sherman indicates that Verlander was able to throw all of his pitches and looked sharp across the board. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that one scout offered a simple, two-word assessment of Verlander after watching his open audition: “He’s ready.”

It’s certainly worth noting that the showcase was held at the Cressey Performance Center — a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey. Corey Kluber held his own showcase there last year and ultimately signed with the Yankees, but the mere location of Verlander’s workout doesn’t make a deal with the Yankees a foregone conclusion.

The Astros made a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Verlander over the weekend, but the widespread expectation is that he’ll reject that in search of a multi-year offer. Astros owner Jim Crane said last month that Verlander would likely be looking for a “contract of some length” in free agency, heavily implying at least a two-year term. Furthermore, hosting a showcase for two-thirds of the league is an obvious indicator that Verlander is interested in seeing what the market has to bear.

Verlander, 39 in February, didn’t pitch in 2021 and threw just six innings in 2020. Of course, in his last healthy season, he won the 2019 American League Cy Young Award after posting a 2.58 ERA in an MLB-best 223 innings with a huge 35.4% strikeout rate against a 5.0% walk rate. Verlander has said on multiple occasions in the past that he hopes to pitch well into his 40s.

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