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Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live Cubs-centric chat on Thursday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

The Cubs made a pair of significant signings, but still avoided the market’s flashiest free agents.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs kicked off their offseason with one notable change to the coaching staff, promoting Dustin Kelly to hitting coach.  It’s been a high-turnover position for the Cubs over the years.  Otherwise, manager David Ross’ coaching staff largely remained the same.

The Cubs had telegraphed their intention to let Willson Contreras leave, but in November made the easy choice to tender the one-year qualifying offer in order to lock down draft pick compensation.  Contreras, of course, declined.  Though an agreement with Contreras wasn’t in the plans, it soon became clear the Cubs would be active in free agency.

From the outset, the Cubs were known to have interest in the “Big Four” free agent shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.  Though Nico Hoerner did a fine job at shortstop in 2022, he was willing to move to second base, and the Cubs saw it as an opportunity to improve their up-the-middle defense.

As you know, the Cubs signed Swanson to the second-largest contract in franchise history.  The Cubs’ choice will reverberate over the next seven years, so it’s worth examining how it unfolded.

Trea Turner was the first of the four off the board, reaching an 11-year, $300MM agreement with the Phillies on December 5th, the first day of the Winter Meetings.  That total exceeded MLBTR’s $268MM projection by about 12%, which doesn’t seem too bad.  But also consider that before Turner signed with the Phillies, the Padres reportedly offered $342MM, which topped our projection by about 28%.

Having left a reported $42MM on the table, it would appear that the suggestion of Turner’s strong east coast preference was accurate.  I assume there was some number the Cubs could have come up with to convince Turner to put down roots in the Midwest, but to the extent that any of these contracts are reasonable, that number would have been less so.  Turner was seemingly never really an option for the Cubs, but his signing established that Big Four shortstop prices would exceed preseason expectations.  It also established that the Padres badly wanted a top free agent position player, having offered $342MM to Turner and reportedly around $415MM to Aaron Judge.

Agent Scott Boras later revealed that the Cubs were of one at least three teams that were “really after” Bogaerts.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Twins, and Blue Jays, the Padres wanted Bogaerts enough to reach 11 years and $280MM on December 8th.  MLBTR was at $189MM for Bogaerts in October, so his total beat our projection by a whopping 48% and $91MM.  I don’t know what Bogaerts’ second-best offer was.  It’s possible that if bidding stopped in the $200MM range, the Cubs would’ve signed him.

The Cubs were presumably in on Correa to some degree, but at that point in the offseason he certainly seemed headed toward a contract well beyond their comfort zone.  MLBTR had predicted $288MM for Correa.  But five days after Bogaerts reached an agreement, Correa had a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in place – pending a physical.  That would’ve been 21% beyond our projection.

As of December 17th, the day the Cubs reached an agreement with Swanson, everyone still thought the Correa-Giants deal was happening.  That same day, Mets owner Steve Cohen remarked, “We got there late” on Correa.  Swanson seemed reasonable by comparison, with his contract exceeding MLBTR’s projection by about 15% and his total just above half of the initial Correa agreement.  While Swanson was the consensus “worst” of the four shortstops, that’s less a knock on him and more to highlight how good the other three have been in their careers.

Even to reach $177MM for Swanson, the Cubs had to go out of their comfort zone.  The contract runs through Swanson’s age-35 season, the type and length of deal they’ve been avoiding in recent years.  Given a high strikeout rate and lack of walks, Swanson’s power carries his offense and should lead to a wRC+ in the 110 range.  He’s very well-regarded defensively, winning a Gold Glove and leading shortstops by a wide margin in 2022 in Outs Above Average.  The Cubs expect Swanson to be a clubhouse leader and a high-floor, strong defensive shortstop who will remain at the position for most or all of his contract.

It’s worth noting that since Swanson declined a qualifying offer from the Braves, the Cubs will forfeit their second-highest pick in the July amateur draft and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.  This would have been true for Bogaerts or Turner as well.  The Cubs lost the #49 pick in the draft for signing Swanson, but also gained the #68 pick for the loss of Contreras.  Fans can welcome Contreras back to Wrigley in Cardinal red at a homestand in early May.

Three days after the Cubs reached agreement with Swanson, Correa’s press conference with the Giants was delayed due to an issue with his physical.  The issue was later said to be Correa’s 2014 fibula fracture.  The following day, Cohen and the Mets swooped in to make a $315MM deal, lopping off $35MM from the Giants’ price.  The Mets, however, had the same concerns as the Giants, and by January 5th other teams were again getting involved.

It was at this point that, in theory, the Cubs could have jumped in and done what Cohen initially planned to do: install Correa as the long-term third baseman.  But for a team that reportedly “loved” Correa as recently as November, the Cubs didn’t make him an offer his first time through free agency, after the lockout.  And the Ricketts family not being nearly as impulsive or free-spending as Cohen, there’s no indication they tried to jump in after Correa’s physicals scuttled two separate $300MM deals.  Plus, once the price tumbled all the way down to six years and $200MM, the Twins had clear advantages: they were the incumbent, and they’d have Correa continue playing shortstop.

So yes, the Cubs technically could have signed any of the Big Four shortstops.  But given how things developed and knowing what we know now, it’s difficult to see how it could have been anyone but Swanson with the Cubs’ current ownership.

Most of the Cubs’ key signings took place in December, so it was a very busy month for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins.  Throughout the offseason, the Cubs were known to be seeking two starting pitchers, one of whom might be Drew Smyly, who had good results for them over 106 1/3 innings in 2022.  Smyly was indeed the secondary rotation signing, at a price matching expectations.

Though some early interest was professed for Kodai Senga in November, it seems Jameson Taillon was always the Cubs’ top free agent starting pitcher target.  Taillon explained later to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, “The Cubs made it clear from day one I was a top priority. If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me.”  It seems the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure talking points really did help, as the Phillies offered Taillon $72MM, but he took $68MM from Chicago.

While MLBTR did expect a four-year deal for Taillon, the contracts he and Taijuan Walker received moved the mid-tier market forward with their $17-18MM average annual values.  Taillon, 31, is a solid mid-rotation arm, though I don’t think we can count on the Cubs getting him to miss more bats and raise his ceiling.  The team still lacks an ace, but convincing Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, or Jacob deGrom to join the Cubs would’ve required an uncharacteristic overpay by the Ricketts family.  The Rangers, another team that has been making improvements but still has less than a 2% chance at reaching the playoffs, did just that to lure deGrom.

The Cubs didn’t throw fans any curveballs in their choices to fill holes in center field and at catcher.  The market for center field was thin, and the club moved quickly to sign Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal.  The fit works for several reasons: his defense creates a decent floor for the Cubs, but the one-year term keeps the spot open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2024.  For his part, if the 27-year-old Bellinger can bring his wRC+ back into the 110 range, a good multiyear deal should be waiting for him in free agency after the season.

Reports suggested the Cubs had interest in catchers such as Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, and Sean Murphy.  Once Vazquez and Narvaez went off the board, the Cubs opted for a defense-first addition with the more affordable Tucker Barnhart.  Elsewhere the Cubs also worked around the edges, bringing in Trey Mancini with the goal of finding some pop.  Mancini will spend time in the outfield corners, at first base, and at DH as needed.  Given an opt-out after 2023, Mancini is seemingly hoping to rebuild value and re-enter the free agent market.

Eric Hosmer doesn’t provide power, but the Cubs brought him in anyway.  The Padres are paying all but $720K of Hosmer’s $13MM salary this year, so it won’t be painful for the Cubs to pull the plug if Hosmer isn’t producing.  It’s quite possible Matt Mervis hits his way into the lineup at Hosmer’s expense sometime in the first half.  The club similarly made a modest addition at third base with the Edwin Rios pickup.  Rios, at least, is on the right side of 30 and has shown big power in his limited big league exposure.  Rios missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and much of 2022 with a hamstring tear, hence his affordable contract.

For much-needed bullpen help, Hoyer again attempted to identify bargain buys.  However, he noted in January, “I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past. It’s made that job difficult.”  So far, Hoyer has matched up with a pair of righties: Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.  There’s been talk of adding a lefty, and Zack Britton and Mike Minor remain on the market with eight days left until Opening Day.

The bulk of the Cubs’ offseason comes down to a pair of long-term deals from the second tier of their respective positions in Swanson and Taillon.  Those two should help, and it’s possible Bellinger and/or Mancini have resurgent seasons.  On the other hand, the Cubs lost a very good catcher in Contreras.  Overall, the Cubs look a little bit better on paper, though they remain lacking in star power.

For a club that has committed over $500MM in contracts over the last two offseasons, it still feels like the Cubs are being cautious.  Owner Tom Ricketts expressed a willingness to exceed the competitive balance tax “in the near future,” but perhaps not by a lot.  The CBT is set at $233MM this year, with the Cubs currently projected in the $219MM range.  The CBT rises to $237MM in 2024, $241MM in ’25, and $244MM in ’26.

Assuming Marcus Stroman and Mancini opt out after the season, the Cubs’ projected CBT payroll for 2024 will be south of $100MM, leaving plenty of spending room for next offseason.  While the Cubs have several interesting prospects, their farm system is not teeming with near-MLB-ready future stars, and it’s not clear exactly how Hoyer and company will pull the team out of its current rut.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Link to poll)

Jose Altuve To Miss About Two Months Due To Thumb Surgery

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March 22: Brown today informed reporters, including Rome, that Altuve’s surgery has now taken place. The estimated timeline is two months before Altuve can resume baseball activities.

March 19: Astros general manager Dana Brown informed reporters, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that second baseman Jose Altuve has a fractured right thumb and will undergo surgery in the “coming days.” There is no timetable for his return. Altuve left last night’s game in the World Baseball Classic after being hit on the hand by a pitch. Marly Rivera of ESPN had previously relayed that Altuve had indeed suffered a fracture, as feared.

The news obviously comes as a big blow to the defending World Series champions, as Altuve has been a cornerstone of the team for years. Not only has he been reliable in his excellent performance, but he’s also never really dealt with a significant injury until now. Over the past ten full seasons, going back to 2012, Altuve has never played fewer than 124 games in an individual campaign. That low tally came in 2019, when a hamstring strain sent him to the injured list for just over a month. Apart from that, all his trips to the IL have been fairly minor, meaning he is now likely facing the most lengthy absence of his career. Though the club hasn’t provided a timetable for Altuve’s return, there’s no doubt that he’s facing a significant absence. Bryce Harper suffered a thumb fracture last year and ended up missing two months of the season. Every injury and recovery is different, but it would be reasonable to expect a similar path ahead for the Astros second baseman.

Altuve, 33 in May, has been one of the better players in the league in that time but is coming off one of his best seasons to date. He hit 28 home runs, stole 18 bases and walked in a career-high 10.9% of his trips to the plate. His .300/.387/.533 batting line resulted in a 164 wRC+, a career-high figure that indicated he was 64% better than the league average hitter. Defensive metrics were split on the value of his glovework, but he was still ranked as being worth 6.6 wins above replacement by FanGraphs, his highest tally in that department since the infamous sign-stealing season of 2017.

The exact date of his return will depend upon how long it takes to heal and then how much time he needs to get back into game shape after his layoff, but it seems like it will be a decent chunk of the schedule either way. While Altuve figures to be back for the latter months of the season, the club will have to figure out how to man the keystone for the time being. Mauricio Dubón, David Hensley and Rylan Bannon are the options on the 40-man roster, while Dixon Machado is in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Dubón is the most experienced of the bunch, having played in 262 games at the big league level. He’s capable of playing each outfield position and the three infield spots to the left of first base, and is generally considered to be a good defender anywhere he’s placed. The problem is on offense, as he’s hit just .244/.287/.366 in his career for a wRC+ of 77. It’s a fairly similar story for Machado, who is considered solid with the glove at shortstop, second or third base, but has hit just .226/.285/.292 in the majors for a wRC+ of 56. He’s not currently on the 40-man and won’t be optionable if he’s selected at some point. Hensley had a great debut last year, but in a tiny sample of just 16 games. He was also good in Triple-A, however, hitting .298/.420/.478 over 104 games last year. Bannon has just five MLB games under his belt but has bounced around the waiver wire in the past year due to strong work in the minors.

That group gives the Astros plenty of options but none of them will be expected to replace the production of Altuve. It’s also possible that the club could look outside the organization for some help, but there are challenges to doing that at this time of year. The free agent market has been largely picked over, leaving veteran journeymen like Andrelton Simmons and Jonathan Villar as some of the best options available. Trades are also difficult to line up at this time of year, with most teams generally feeling settled with their rosters as Opening Day approaches. Perhaps the Yankees would be willing to deal Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Gleyber Torres with youngsters like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza pushing for more playing time, but they might also prefer to hang onto those players just in case the younger guys struggle in their first extended tastes of major league action. As Spring Training winds down, teams will make their final cuts and a few more players will shake loose, though they might not be huge difference makers relative to the in-house options in Houston.

However the club decides to play things, they will no doubt be in a lesser position at second base for a while. They will surely still be in good shape overall, with a lineup of great hitters like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, José Abreu and Yordan Alvarez. They have incredibly made it to the ALCS in each of the past six years, going to the World Series in four of those seasons and winning it twice. They seem poised to be strong yet again, but they will now be challenged by a couple of notable absences in the early going, as Lance McCullers Jr. will open the season on the injured list as well.

Royals Option Nick Pratto, Maikel Garcia

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The Royals announced Wednesday that they’ve optioned first baseman Nick Pratto, infielder Maikel Garcia and catcher Freddy Fermin to Triple-A Omaha.

Pratto, 24, will return for a third stint at a Triple-A level where he’s previously turned in a .241/.368/.528 batting line while hitting 38 home runs in 644 plate appearances. He had a strong showing this spring, batting .313/.378/.438 with a pair of doubles, a triple and a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio in 37 plate appearances. Pratto made his MLB debut in 2022, hitting .184/.271/.386 in 182 plate appearances. That said, he’s a former first-round pick (No. 14 in 2017) who entered the 2022 season as a consensus top-100 prospect. The Royals surely still view him as a potential long-term piece.

The presence of Vinnie Pasquantino at first base stands as a roadblock for Pratto, though heading into camp it was feasible that Pratto and Pasquantino would share the workloads at first base and designated hitter. At least in the early stages of the 2023 season, that won’t be the case, but Pratto’s demotion doesn’t necessarily indicate he’s in for a lengthy stay in Omaha. A strong early showing could put him right back in the big league plans. For the time being, it seems as though the Royals will use the DH spot to get at-bats for a number of players, including hot-hitting catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez.

The fact that Fermin was optioned out in spite of a .273/.360/.545 showing in 25 plate appearances seemingly indicates indication that Salvador Perez and Melendez will be the only catchers on the roster to begin the season. Fermin is the only other catcher on the Royals’ 40-man roster, although non-roster invitees Jakson Reetz and Jose Briceno are still in camp and could potentially be selected to the MLB roster.

Fermin, 27, made his big league debut in 2022 but appeared in just three games. He spent the bulk of the season in Omaha, where he batted .270/.365/.480 with 17 doubles and 15 homers in 348 plate appearances. At some point, it’s feasible to think the Royals could go with three catchers, allowing Melendez to log more time in the outfield and/or at designated hitter, but Fermin will head to Triple-A to begin the season.

Garcia, 23, is also being sent out despite a strong showing in Cactus League play. He’s posted a .355/.375/.516 showing with a homer, two doubles and two steals in 32 plate appearances. He split the bulk of the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, batting a combined .285/.359/.427 and logging regular work at shortstop. With Bobby Witt Jr., Nicky Lopez, Michael Massey, Hunter Dozier and Nate Eaton among the Royals’ infield options on the big league roster, the Royals have a crowded infield mix and seem to prefer Garcia getting regular at-bats in Omaha, which is sensible given that he’s one of the organization’s top-ranked prospects.

The Royals have more pitchers than position players on the 40-man roster, so optioning this trio out of big league camp seems to portend that as many as three non-roster invitees have a chance at claiming bench spots to open the year. Matt Duffy, Franmil Reyes, Johan Camargo, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Matt Beaty are among the non-roster veterans still in camp.

Brewers Notes: Burnes, Voit, Hiura, Bullpen

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Brewers ace Corbin Burnes was one of several recent players to speak publicly about the arbitration process, voicing some disappointment last month in some aspects of the team’s approach to the trial. Burnes has now enlisted the Boras Corporation as his new representation moving forward, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).

Asked directly last month whether his relationship with the team had been damaged at all, Burnes candidly acknowledged that it had been to some extent, and that there was “really no getting around that.” Given his likely price tag on the open market, the former Cy Young winner was already a long-shot extension candidate for the Brewers, and the shift in representation won’t change that perception. The Boras Corporation has a reputation for pushing its players to reach the open market, though there are plenty of notable exceptions in recent years. Xander Bogaerts, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg and Chris Paddack are all Boras clients who signed multi-year extensions that pushed back their respective paths to free agency.

The Brewers are entering the 2023 season intent on contending for the playoffs and, even after trading Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong this offseason, reportedly made clear to other clubs that stars like Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames were unavailable. Their first half will be one to watch closely. If Milwaukee falls out of contention, that trio will figure to all resurface in trade rumblings, given their relative proximity to free agency.

Each of Burnes, Woodruff and Adames is controllable only through the 2024 campaign. (Ditto Eric Lauer, Rowdy Tellez, Matt Bush and Adrian Houser.) Milwaukee probably wouldn’t aggressively shop that group, but the Brewers did make a tough call by trading Josh Hader when he had just a season and a half of club control remaining last summer. If nothing else, teams will be trying to pry some of that talent away from Milwaukee if the Brewers indeed drop out of the postseason race before this year’s trade deadline.

Turning to more immediate matters, the Brewers have some key personnel decisions looming in the near future. Last week, I outlined the dilemma they’re facing regarding Keston Hiura and their right-handed-hitting bench depth, and GM Matt Arnold touched on the situation yesterday (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Hiura and non-roster invitee Luke Voit are competing for a similar role with the Brewers, and Arnold acknowledged that the club has some “tough decisions” to make. Arnold praised the “tremendous job” Voit has done so far in camp, noting that he’s done “everything he can possibly do” to make the club.

The 32-year-old Voit has indeed impressed, hitting .316/.333/.526 with a pair of homers — albeit with an ugly 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 39 plate appearances. Hiura is hitting .156/.229/.219 with a 42.9% strikeout rate (15 punchouts in 35 plate appearances). Arnold praised the “electricity” in Hiura’s bat and touted the upside he’s flashed in the past, but the former first-round pick and top prospect is out of minor league options hasn’t performed with much consistency in recent years. Since his outstanding rookie season, Hiura’s strikeout woes have climbed, and he’s lost his grip on a regular spot in the lineup.

Voit had an opt-out clause in his minor league contract last week but agreed to push the date on that back to this Friday. The decision on whether to select him is in many ways linked to Hiura and perhaps to fellow right-handed-hitting bench options like Mike Brosseau and Owen Miller. Without mentioning specific names, Arnold seemingly acknowledged as much, stating: “…a lot of this comes down to not just [Voit], but the people around him and how this all works together is so important.” Both Brosseau and Miller offer more defensive versatility than Voit and Hiura, but both have minor league options remaining as well.

In the bullpen, the Brewers are continuing to narrow the competition. They optioned righties Jake Cousins and Elvis Peguero to Triple-A Nashville yesterday, but manager Craig Counsell made clear that both are squarely in the team’s 2023 plans (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy).

“Jake and Peguero, those guys are going to definitely pitch for us,” Counsell said, adding that the calls could come early in the season if needed. Cousins has been impressive in brief looks over the past two seasons, showing huge ability to miss bats but also some worrying command issues. Peguero, acquired from the Angels in the previously mentioned Renfroe swap, fanned 11 of 35 hitters (31.4%) this spring but was always at risk of being sent out given the number of out-of-options arms the Brewers are currently rostering.

None of Houser, Joel Payamps, Javy Guerra, Bryse Wilson or Bush can be optioned to the minors. The only optionable members of the bullpen are closer Devin Williams, setup man Peter Strzelecki and southpaw Hoby Milner, but all three (Williams in particular, of course) are generally locked into spots, as are Bush and Houser.

Mets Option Francisco Alvarez

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The Mets announced Wednesday that they’ve optioned top catching prospect Francisco Alvarez to Triple-A Syracuse. The move has been widely expected, given the presence of both Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido on the roster.

Alvarez, who made his MLB debut last year at just 20 years of age, underwent ankle surgery last October. While he was healthy enough to participate in spring training, he had a rough showing in camp, going 3-for-28 with a pair of walks and ten strikeouts in 31 trips to the plate. Alvarez turned 21 in November and has just 45 Triple-A games and last year’s five big league games under his belt, so it’s hardly surprising that the organizational preference is for him to continue to develop with regular reps behind the plate in Triple-A, rather than as part of a three-catcher setup with occasional DH reps at the MLB level.

Heading into the 2023 season, Alvarez is ranked among the game’s top 10 overall prospects at each of Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic and ESPN. He tore through Double-A pitching as a 20-year-old last season, hitting .277/.368/.553 with 18 home runs, a 12.2% walk rate and a 24% strikeout rate. Alvarez’s dipped a bit in Triple-A, where he was one of the league’s youngest players but still hit .234/.382/.443 with nine homers, a 17.1% walk rate and 26.3% strikeout rate in 199 trips to the plate. He went 2-for-12 with a homer and a double in his brief MLB debut.

The Mets still view Alvarez as their catcher of the future, and with good reason. He’s a legitimate power bat with a chance to stick behind the plate and develop into an average or better defender at a premium position. While many catchers are slower to develop than other prospects, Alvarez had success at the plate in the upper minors before even reaching his 21st birthday.

Following the offseason trade of James McCann to the Orioles, the Mets expect to use Narvaez as their primary catcher — at least early in the season. The veteran backstop is coming off a disappointing 2022 season in Milwaukee but hit a combined .266/.351/.403 in five seasons prior and has developed into one of the game’s better defenders at the position in recent years. Narvaez inked a two-year, $15MM deal with the Mets, but the second season of that contract is a player option, so with a good year it’s quite possible he’ll return to the open market in search of a larger and lengthier pact.

An ideal scenario for all parties would see Narvaez enjoy a strong season while Alvarez eventually forces his way onto the roster with a well-rounded performance in Syracuse. That’d give Alvarez the opportunity to ease into the big league picture later in the season while setting the stage for Narvaez to decline his player option and Alvarez to ascend to the starter’s role in 2024. The aforementioned Nido, meanwhile, can serve as a defensive-minded backup in both 2023 and 2024 — his final two seasons of club control.

Things don’t always go according to plan, of course, and it’s possible that injuries or poor performances from some members of this catching trio will necessitate an earlier recall for Alvarez or lead to Narvaez exercising his player option after a shaky year. As things stand, however, it appears likely that Alvarez will finish out the 2023 season with less than a full year of big league service time, meaning he’d still be controllable for six full seasons — all the way through 2029. He picked up six days of MLB service in 2022, so he’d need an additional 166 days on the Major League roster or injured list in order to reach a full year of service and accelerate his free-agent trajectory by a year.

The Opener: WBC, Rule Changes, MLBTR Chats

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With just eight days remaining until Opening Day, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Storybook ending to the WBC

Last night’s World Baseball Classic final proved to be an instant classic as Team Japan beat Team USA 3-2. Japan, undefeated during the tournament, jumped out to an early lead. Trea Turner’s WBC-record fifth home run and an eighth-inning bomb from Kyle Schwarber following a 10-pitch at bat against Yu Darvish made it a one-run game headed into the ninth, when Shohei Ohtani took the mound to close out the game. After a leadoff walk to Jeff McNeil, Ohtani induced a double play from Mookie Betts to bring his Angels teammate and fellow superstar Mike Trout to the plate as both the potential final out and tying run. Trout and Ohtani battled to a full count before Trout ultimately struck out swinging on a slider, giving Japan their third WBC championship.

Trout and Ohtani are both planning to play in the WBC again when it returns in 2026. “I already told [Team USA] I’m doing the next one, so I’m already in,” Trout said on FS1’s pregame show last night. “If I’m DHing, playing left field, whatever they want, I’m in, I’m in.” Ohtani, the WBC MVP, called last night’s win “the best moment in my life” and said he would “love to enter [the WBC] again.”

2. Tweaks to new rules incoming

Yesterday, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters, including The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli, that adjustments to the new rules being implemented for the 2023 season were on the way ahead of Opening Day. These adjustments, which are being made at the behest of the MLBPA, are expected to be fairly minor. Even minor changes would have to be implemented very soon, as with barely a week left before Opening Day, teams and players will want as much time as possible to acclimate to any changes made. Manfred notes that the changes will be announced in the coming days, so clubs could be informed as soon as today.

3. MLBTR chats today

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco is hosting a pair of live chats with readers today. First up, at 10am CT, is a Braves-centric chat in conjunction with the Braves edition of MLBTR’s Offseason in Review series. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link allows you to follow along when the chat goes live or read the transcript when it’s completed. Later today, at 5pm CT, Anthony will also be hosting his weekly live chat with an MLB-wide focus. You can click here to leave a question, participate live, or read the transcript of that chat.

Twins Planning To Use Byron Buxton Primarily As Designated Hitter Early In The Season

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Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters, including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, that Byron Buxton will work primarily at designated hitter early in the season. According to Baldelli, while Buxton is “doing great” health-wise, the club wants to use him as a DH early in the year in order to hopefully keep him healthy for the full 2023 season. Baldelli did not specify how long that would last beyond noting that the club planned to more slowly build him up to center field work.

This decision is sure to cut into Buxton’s value early in the year, as despite his excellence at the plate (150 wRC+ across the 2021-22 campaigns), a great deal of his value comes from being among the very best defensive center fielders in the sport. That being said, it’s an understandable plan for the Twins to go into the season nonetheless. Buxton has only played 100 games once in his career, in 2017.

He has played just 307 games since then, reaching only 92 contests last year before suffering a right hip strain in August. Buxton also played through right knee issues until that point, eventually electing to shut things down once the Twins were knocked out of playoff contention. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee in September.

The defensive drop-off that comes from using Buxton as a DH might not be as severe as one would expect considering the Twins’ excellent outfield defense. Michael A. Taylor, whom the Twins acquired from the Royals earlier this offseason, has posted +22 Outs Above Average over the past two seasons. With Taylor manning center field while flanked by Joey Gallo and Max Kepler in the outfield corners, the Twins will retain Gold Glove caliber defense across the outfield even while Buxton isn’t playing the field.

The Twins don’t go into 2023 with an established everyday designated hitter. Corner infielders Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda can rotate through those spots, while utility infielders Nick Gordon and Donovan Solano could also get reps there. With Jorge Polanco potentially beginning the season on the injured list, the Twins might have to rely on that duo at second base in the early going. Polanco has ramped up slowly this spring after his 2022 campaign was cut short by a left knee issue.

Orioles Notes: Rodriguez, Means, Santander

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Orioles fans are eagerly awaiting the arrival of top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez, who’s squarely in the mix for a spot in the team’s Opening Day rotation. That shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion, however, Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun writes. The O’s are planning to manage Rodriguez’s innings count this season anyhow, and doing so in the minors will be easier than at the Major League level. If Rodriguez does head to Norfolk to begin the season, the Orioles could look to any of Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, or Spenser Watkins to open the year on the starting staff.

Rodriguez, 23, was the No. 11 overall pick in 2018 and is widely regarded as one of the sport’s top overall pitching prospects. He posted a brilliant 2.20 ERA with a 35.8% strikeout rate against a 7.7% walk rate at Triple-A last year, though that dominance came in a relatively small sample of 69 2/3 innings. The 6’5″  hurler was limited to just 75 2/3 frames on the season overall, thanks to a Grade 2 lat strain that wiped out his entire June, July and August. Upon returning, he allowed nine runs with a 29-to-14 K/BB ratio in 19 2/3 innings — a notable step back from his early-season dominance. He’s also been hit hard in his past two spring outings and now has yielded 10 runs (seven earned) on 13 hits and seven walks with 14 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings.

The sky is the limit for Rodriguez, whom the organization envisions as a potential ace at the front of the starting staff for years to come, but that optimism will also lead to some understandable caution with regard to his 2023 usage.

A couple more notes on the Orioles…

  • The O’s are aiming for a July return for left-hander John Means, who’s on the mend from 2022 Tommy John surgery, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The southpaw said this week that he’s thrown five or six bullpen sessions so far this spring, and he progressed to throwing his changeup in his most recent effort. Kubatko notes that Means could begin throwing breaking balls in his mound sessions at some point in early April. There’s still a ways to go, as he’ll need to build up to the point where he can throw all of his pitches, then face live hitters, then embark on what’s sure to be a lengthy minor league rehab stint as he builds up to game readiness. Provided the recovery goes according to plan, Means should have a rotation spot waiting for him once he’s ready. The 29-year-old (30 next month) was Baltimore’s best starter when healthy, pitching to a combined 3.72 ERA with a 21.2% strikeout rate and outstanding 5.1% walk rate in 356 2/3 innings from 2019-22.
  • Baltimore will get corner outfielder Anthony Santander some reps at first base during the final week of Spring Training, skipper Brandon Hyde announced this morning (via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Santander logged four innings at the position early in exhibition play before leaving the club for a few weeks to represent Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. The 28-year-old has never played the infield in a major league game. Aside from 24 appearances in center back in 2019, he’s played exclusively corner outfield at the big league level. Santander’s only first base experience in a meaningful game came back in 2016, when he made nine appearances there while in High-A. Of course, the O’s aren’t planning to deploy him regularly there over the coming season. He’ll be in right field on most days, with the club hoping he can branch out to offer some cover behind starting first baseman Ryan Mountcastle if needed. Baltimore acquired Ryan O’Hearn and Lewin Diaz as non-roster first base options this offseason, adding some left-handed depth behind the righty-swinging Mountcastle.

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