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Latest On J.D. Martinez’s Market

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Among the top free agents on the market his offseason, one could argue that no player has had his market impacted more by the presence of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani than veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After all, the Dodgers declined to extend Martinez a qualifying offer last month despite interest in a reunion due to the complications that would arise if the club landed both Martinez and Ohtani. With Ohtani now signed in LA on a record-shattering $700MM deal, its hard to imagine the Dodgers-Martinez reunion both sides appeared to have interest in coming together. To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update regarding Martinez’s market, suggesting that the Angels, Mariners, Mets and Diamondbacks could be among the teams in play for his services now that he’s unlikely to return to Chavez Ravine. Among that group, only Arizona had previously been connected to the veteran slugger this winter.

The Angels certainly make plenty of sense as a suitor for Martinez now that they know Ohtani won’t be returning to Anaheim in 2024. After all, the club has made it clear they have no plans to launch a rebuild this offseason as the club dismissed speculation that Ohtani’s impending departure could lead to a trade of Mike Trout this offseason. With Ohtani moving on in 2024 and a 2023 record of just 73-89, the club has a lot of work to do if it hopes to compete for a playoff spot next season.

Of course, improved health from the likes of Trout, Logan O’Hoppe and Anthony Rendon could represent internal avenues toward improvement, but it’s hard to imagine the Angels competing without an external offensive addition to help mitigate the loss of Ohtani. Martinez, who slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs and a 135 wRC+ last season, was outclassed only by Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna among regulars at DH last season and would go a long way toward filling the offensive hole left by Ohtani.

As for the Mariners, the addition of Martinez would surely benefit a lineup that has lost Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Ford this offseason without a clear everyday replacement for any of those bats. What’s more, the club has shed plenty of payroll this offseason and has previously been connected to fellow righty slugger Jorge Soler this offseason. Martinez, 36, posted a stronger offensive season than the 31-year-old Soler in 2023 and could potentially be a more impactful addition to Seattle’s lineup next season.

With that being said, the Mariners have made clear their desire to improve their lineup’s contact skills headed into 2024, and Soler’s 25.7% strikeout rate figures to be much more palatable than Martinez’s 31.4% mark last season. What’s more, while MLBTR projected Soler for a $45MM guarantee that clocks in higher than Martinez’s $40MM figure on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, it’s worth noting that Soler’s relative youth could allow him to secure a longer contract than Martinez, which would tamp down the average annual value of the deal and potentially allow the Mariners to more room in their budget for further offensive additions.

The Mets are perhaps the most curious fit for Martinez among the listed teams. While the club received a mediocre 100 wRC+ from their DH slot (the 12th-worst figure in the majors) last season and subsequently parted ways with Daniel Vogelbach at the non-tender deadline last month, it’s worth noting that the club has plenty of young bats such as Mark Vientos and Brett Baty who could command playing time next season and that adding a 36-year-old DH to a club that’s more focused on the future than 2024 may not be the best use of the club’s resources. On the other hand, the only Mets regulars to post above-average seasons by measure of wRC+ last season who will remain with the club in 2024 are Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo. Adding the bat of Martinez to the middle of the club’s lineup next season would add some much-needed offensive firepower and help the club compete in what is shaping up to be the final year before Alonso heads into free agency next winter.

Thomas Hatch, Taylor Hearn Reportedly Sign With NPB’s Hiroshima Carp

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The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s NPB have signed a pair of hurlers who pitched in the majors this past season. According to Yahoo Japan (Japanese language link), the Carp have agreed to deals with left-hander Taylor Hearn and right-hander Thomas Hatch. The report indicates Hiroshima’s agreement with Hearn is worth $900K in total, while Hatch’s deal is reportedly worth a total of $1.3MM. Hatch was released by the Pirates late last month and was initially expected to sign with the Nippon-Ham Fighters prior to landing a deal with the Carp. Hearn, on the other hand, elected free agency back in October.

Hearn, 29, made his big league debut back in 2019 with the Rangers and spent parts of five seasons in the majors with the club, pitching to a 5.11 ERA and 4.45 FIP during that time. From 2021-22, Hearn occupied a swing role with Texas, pitching both as a member of the starting rotation and out of the bullpen throughout the two campaigns. Those two seasons accounted for a 204 1/3 of Hearn’s career 229 innings of work for the Rangers and both campaigns saw him post strong numbers out of the bullpen, with ERAs of 3.54 and 3.51 respectively. Unfortunately, that success didn’t translate over in his limited time as a full-time reliever during the 2023 season, where he struggled to a 11.40 ERA in 15 innings of work while splitting time between the Rangers, Royals, and Braves organizations. Looking ahead to 2024, Hearn figures to have the opportunity to pitch in a full-time relief role on a regular basis with the Carp.

Hatch, 29, has found more big league success during his career than Hearn. A third-round pick by the Cubs in the 2016 draft, Hatch made his big league debut with the Blue Jays during the shortened 2020 season and impressed in his first taste of big league action with a 2.73 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work. Things came off the rails a bit for Hatch the following two seasons, however, as he pitched just 14 innings in the majors with a 10.93 ERA. He got a more extensive opportunity in the majors in 2023, however, and did reasonably well with it. Across 28 2/3 innings of work with the Blue Jays and Pirates, Hatch posted a solid 4.08 ERA with a strong 52.3% groundball rate and a respectable 20.2% strikeout rate. Those decent results and promising peripherals surely made Hatch an attractive target for Hiroshima, and he’ll now join Hearn on the Carp pitching staff in 2024.

Steven Brault Announces Retirement

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Left-hander Steven Brault has retired, as he announced on his personal Instagram page last month. A veteran of seven MLB seasons, Brault spent almost his entire major league career as a member of the Pirates. According to a recent report by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, Brault has his sights set on a second act in broadcasting now that his playing career has come to a close.

“I cannot possibly describe what it feels like to achieve a childhood dream,” Brault wrote in his announcement,  “Playing Major League Baseball was everything I could have ever imagined and so much more… I may be retiring from playing, but I plan to continue in this game for life. Baseball is my passion, and I plan on sharing that passion with the world. ”

Drafted by the Orioles in the 11th round of the 2013 draft, Brault was acquired by the Pirates as the player to be named later in the deal that sent outfielder Travis Snider to the Orioles back in January 2015. Brault made his major league debut for the Pirates the following year and served as a swingman while shuttling between the majors and Triple-A from 2016 to 2017. In those first two years of his big league career, Brault posted roughly league average results, with a 4.76 ERA and 4.70 FIP in 68 innings of work.

In 2018, Brault got his first chance to stick on the major league roster, pitching to a 4.61 ERA (85 ERA+) in 91 2/3 innings of work primarily as a multi-inning reliever out of the Pittsburgh bullpen. While Brault held his own in his first full-season taste of big league action, his effectiveness was limited by control issues that saw him issue free passes to 13.8% of batters faced while striking out just 19.9%.

Brault’s role shifted again in 2019, as he began to pitch primarily as a member of the starting rotation. Brault posted a 5.16 ERA during the 2019 campaign that was virtually identical to his previous season by measure of ERA+ (84), but he eclipsed 100 innings for the first (and only time) in his career and posted more solid numbers when looking exclusively at his 19 starts that season. In 95  2/3 innings of work as a starter in 2019, Brault posted a 4.99 ERA with a walk rate under 10% while striking out 20.1% of batters faced.

The shortened 2020 campaign was by far the strongest of Brault’s career. Pitching almost exclusively as a member of the rotation, he posted a strong 3.38 ERA, 34% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.92 FIP and a career-best 21.3% strikeout rate in 42 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for Brault, he’d be left unable to build upon his strong campaign during the shortened season the following year as he was limited to just seven appearances due to a recurring left lat strain that saw him make his first start of the season in August before prompting returning to the injured list in September.

Brault’s injury woes led the Pirates to designate the lefty for assignment following the 2021 campaign, at which point Brault caught on with the Cubs on a minor league deal. Brault once again battled injury issues early in the season but managed to make his debut with the big league Cubs on the Fourth of July. He would ultimately make nine appearances in short relief for the Cubs, posting a 3.00 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 20.5% strikeout rate before a shoulder strain ended his season.

Entering 2023, Brault caught on with the Spire City Ghost Hounds of the independent Atlantic League, though he did so as an outfielder, not as a pitcher. Brault had hit well during his college days with a .971 OPS in 199 trips to the plate, and was one of the better hitting pitchers in the majors as well, with a career .258/.275/.337 slash line in 101 major league plate appearances. Brault’s stint with the Ghost Hounds ultimately lasted 58 games, during which he slashed a solid .283/.327/.465 with an 18% walk rate in 200 plate appearances.

Ultimately, Brault ended his big league career having posted a 4.73 ERA and 4.64 FIP with 299 strikeouts in 352 1/3 innings of work. Those of us at MLBTR would like to congratulate Brault on his playing career and wish him all the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Roki Sasaki Asks To Be Posted For MLB Teams, Chiba Lotte Marines Likely To Deny Request

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Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki has asked the Chiba Lotte Marines to make him available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter, according to Sponichi Annex (Japanese language link from Yahoo Japan).  Nippon Professional Baseball teams have until December 15 to post players for possible moves to Major League Baseball in advance of the 2024 season, and this brief timeline alone makes it highly unlikely that the Marines will grant Sasaki’s request.

In the broader picture, it is quite rare for Japanese players to ask to be posted so early in their careers, as the 22-year-old Sasaki has only played three seasons in NPB.  As per MLB’s posting rules, players must be at least 25 years and have at least six pro seasons under their belt in order to receive anything more than a minor league contract.  Big league clubs could also only pay such players money from their international bonus pools, and with this year’s international signing window yet to open on January 15, teams have long since committed the bulk of their pool money to prospects.  Shohei Ohtani faced these restrictions when he came to the majors at age 23, and thus received only a minors deal from the Angels and a $2.3MM signing bonus.

Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times profiled Sasaki last month, noting that Sasaki’s contract with the Marines “is thought to” have an escape clause that would allow the righty to leave for the majors at any time.  Ohtani enacted such a clause in 2017, though Ohtani had played five seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.

The Sponichi article didn’t give any mention about such a contractual opt-out, though the unusual timing of Sasaki’s request perhaps does indicate that he has some leverage to take this rather immediate plunge into the posting system.  Castillo/Harris wrote that the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants have all “intensely scouted” Sasaki in Japan, and at one point, the Dodgers thought that Sasaki would be available as early as this offseason.

Sasaki wouldn’t achieve full free agency until he has nine seasons of service time, and in general, NPB teams don’t post players early until they’re a year or two away from that nine-season threshold.  For instance, Yoshinobu Yamamoto played seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes before the Buffaloes agreed to post the star righty this winter, and the 25-year-old Yamamoto now looks poised to command a contract well north of $200MM.

Yamamoto’s combination of youth and skill has all but guaranteed a huge contract, yet even his number could pale in comparison to what Sasaki might receive.  Though he would seemingly be limited to a minor league deal at first and would have to wait at least a few seasons into an MLB career to sign an extension without drawing attention from the league office, that might be a risk Sasaki is willing to take given the potential huge payoff down the road.  In the interim, he won’t be lacking in compensation, since a jump to the majors would surely boost his endorsement appeal.

Over 283 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.00 ERA, 34.4% strikeout rate, and 5.12% walk rate, and these video-game numbers are only part of Sasaki’s burgeoning legend.  His fastball routinely sits in the upper-90s and has topped out at 102.5mph, and his forkball is arguably an even deadlier pitch.  Sasaki’s pitched well for Japan’s gold medal-winning team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and he has two NPB All-Star appearances on his resume.  Most famously, Sasaki came within an inning of back-to-back perfect games — he tossed a perfecto against the Buffaloes in April 2022 that saw him record 13 straight strikeouts amidst an NPB-record 19 K’s in his masterpiece of a start.  Incredibly, Sasaki followed that up with eight perfect innings in his next outing before being pulled before the start of the ninth due to pitch count reasons (102 pitches).

The Marines’ desire to preserve Sasaki’s arm and overall health has been a main storyline of his career.  He was the first overall pick of the 2019 NPB draft, yet he didn’t make his debut with Chiba until May 2021, as the team wanted to ease his development into pro ball.  Sasaki missed about six weeks this season due to an oblique strain, limiting him to 91 innings for the 2023 campaign.  As MLB’s Dai Takegami Podziewski noted in his last installment of the NPB Players To Watch feature, durability is basically the last question Sasaki has to really answer about his long-term potential, and the righty’s 6’4″, 203-pound frame would suggest that he is perhaps built to hold up under the larger workloads faced by Major League pitchers.

While it remains to be seen if Sasaki will actually be able to enter the 2023-24 free agent market, it would obviously be a game changer in a winter that already has a lot of high-end starters still on the board.  If nothing else, Sasaki’s request might well be setting a stage for a posting next winter, when he could join another loaded pitching class that might include Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and possibly even Gerrit Cole if the Yankees don’t enact a contract clause preventing Cole from opting out.

Junior Fernandez Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines

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The Chiba Lotte Marines announced (Japanese language link) the signing of right-hander Junior Fernandez.  The move to Nippon Professional Baseball comes after Fernandez elected minor league free agency following a 2023 season spent with the Triple-A affiliates of the Blue Jays and Nationals.

An international signing for the Cardinals in 2014, Fernandez spent his entire career in the St. Louis season until September 2022, and he has since bounced around to four different MLB teams before now heading to the Marines.  The Pirates claimed Fernandez off waivers in September 2022 and the Yankees and Jays then added the righty on subsequent waiver claims during that offseason.  Toronto released Fernandez in August, and he then caught on with the Nats on a minor league contract.

Fernandez has a 5.17 ERA over 54 career MLB innings with St. Louis and Pittsburgh from 2019-22, seeing at least some big league action in each of those four seasons.  He posted a hefty 13.9% walk rate while striking out only 18.7% of batters.  Fernandez became a full-time reliever in 2018 and has since shown some flashes of improved strikeout ability, as well as a pretty steady ability to generate grounders.  However, walks have been an issue, as Fernandez has had trouble fully controlling a pitch repertoire that includes a 98.7mph sinker.

Miguel Yajure Signs With NPB’s Yakult Swallows

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Right-hander Miguel Yajure has signed with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball, according to Yahoo Japan (Japanese language link).  It’s a one-year contract for the 25-year-old Yajure, worth approximately $550K.

Originally an amateur signing for the Yankees out of Venezuela in 2015, Yajure made his MLB debut in 2020 by pitching seven innings over three games.  That offseason, New York included Yajure as part of the four-player package sent to the Pirates in the trade that brought Jameson Taillon to the Bronx.  Unfortunately for Yajure, his time in Pittsburgh as limited to 16 appearances and 39 1/3 big league innings (for a 8.69 ERA) over the 2021-22 seasons, as he was injured for a large portion of the 2021 campaign and simply didn’t pitch very effectively in either the majors or minors in 2022.

Yajure hasn’t been back to the majors since, as he spent all of 2023 pitching in the Giants’ minor league system after San Francisco claimed him off waivers from the Pirates last winter.  Over 75 1/3 total innings (60 1/3 with Triple-A Sacramento), Yajure struggled to a 6.07 ERA and a 10.79% walk rate, with a decent but unspectacular 22.73% strikeout rate.

Yajure has mostly worked as a starter in the minors, and will probably be part of the Swallows rotation even though he is quoted in the Yahoo Japan as being open to any role.  The righty elected to become a minor league free agent after last season, and he’ll now head to the Tokyo-based club for a new chapter in his career (and a much bigger guaranteed payday than he’d find in minor league ball).  Since he’s only entering his age-26 season, there’s plenty of time for Yajure to land back in the majors in the future, if he can pitch well in NPB and re-establish his value as a starter or perhaps as a relief pitcher.

Twins Getting Trade Interest In Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler

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Infielder Jorge Polanco and right fielder Max Kepler “are the two Twins players drawing the most interest on the trade market,” sources tell Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  With Polanco in particular, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds that the former All-Star’s market has “increased” within the last week.

It doesn’t appear as though a deal might be particularly close for either player, as the Twins are one of several teams whose winter business has been somewhat stalled by the logjam at the top of the free agent market.  As Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey told Nightengale and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, “what we continue to hear on the trade front…is ’Hey, we have interest in some of your players.  We’d like to talk about these guys, but we have to wait on a few other things to happen,’ or free agent discussions to come to pass.  When that happens, you’re constantly waiting to some degree.”

Trade winds have swirled around Polanco and Kepler even before the offseason began, and that speculation even before Favley said last month that the Twins were going to reduce their payroll for 2024.  It is worth noting that the Twins might’ve been able to make those cuts simply by not retaining Polanco or Kepler for the next season, though the team opted to exercise club options on both players (Polanco for $10.5MM, Kepler for $10MM) rather than just lose them for nothing.

With some level of trade interest brewing, it would appear as through Minnesota’s front office made the right decision.  Obviously it remains to be seen if either player will be dealt at all, or what a return might be for either solid-but-unspectacular veteran.  Kepler also has only one year of control remaining, while Polanco can be controlled through the 2025 season via another club option ($12MM with a $750K buyout).

A case can be made that the Twins could or retain both Polanco and Kepler given how the team has battled injuries (including some missed time for these two themselves) over the last two seasons, yet Minnesota does appear to have something of a surplus around the diamond.  With Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien emerging last season, third base and second base might now be covered, leaving Polanco without an obvious starting position since Carlos Correa naturally has Polanco’s old shortstop spot covered.  Matt Wallner, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach are all left-handed hitting outfield options, so Kepler might be a bit of an expendable piece.

Perhaps ideally, Minnesota would prefer to trade utilityman Kyle Farmer (and his $6.6MM projected arbitration salary) rather than Polanco or Kepler.  That said, rival teams would likewise be more willing to give up a notable return to land an everyday type of commodity rather than Farmer, who is maybe best suited for a part-time role.  Since center field, first base, and the rotation are all target areas for the Twins this winter, they might have no choice but to move at least one of Polanco and Kepler to thread of needle of upgrading the roster while also reducing payroll at the same time.

Bryce Harper Interested In Extension With Phillies

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After some speculation over the last few weeks that Bryce Harper was interested in extending his deal with the Phillies, agent Scott Boras confirmed the matter when speaking with reporters (including Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer) at the Winter Meetings.

“Bryce has let me know that he wants to work out an extension so that he knows that he’s going to be there for the remainder of his career….Apart from my advice, he goes, ’I just want to go and make sure that I can recruit players to Philadelphia.  I want the fans in Philadelphia to know that I’m going to be there for the duration and that I’m committed.’  I think he’s been an important voice for them to attract major free agents and other players,” Boras said.

Harper is still not even halfway through the 13-year, $330MM contract he signed with the Phillies as a free agent during the 2018-19 offseason.  At the time of the signing, Harper’s contract was the most expensive in baseball history, and it still ranks seventh all-time in terms of total dollars.  In terms of average annual value, however, Harper’s deal doesn’t crack the top 40 all time, as he is making a relatively (in a very broad sense) modest AAV of just under $25.4MM per season.  In terms of actual dollars, Harper is still owed $196MM through the 2031 season.

The deal was a straight 13-year pact without any opt-outs or club option years, which was by design.  At the time of the signing, Harper stressed that he wanted long-term security for the rest of his career, so he could focus on baseball without having to worry about any future changes of scenery or upcoming trips to free agency.  This dovetailed with the Phillies’ desire to add premium talent while also keeping costs (again) relatively in check in terms of the luxury tax.  With Harper’s money spread out over a longer term, that $25.4MM AAV puts less of a hit on Philadelphia’s annual luxury tax bill.

Since the Phillies have exceeded the tax threshold in each of the last two seasons, the AAV benefits of Harper’s contract are perhaps even more important to the Phillies now than it was at the time of Harper’s signing in February 2019.  On paper, this gives the team little reason to consider extending a player who is already locked up through his age-38 season.  Even if the Phils are open to indeed retaining Harper into his 40’s, it makes sense for the club to wait at least a few more years to monitor any signs of decline in Harper’s play.

In addition, Harper is also coming off two seasons hampered by injuries and defensive limitations, as a UCL tear and subsequent Tommy John surgery limited Harper to DH-only duty and then some time at first base over the 2022-23 seasons.  Though Harper is now apparently healthy enough to resume right field duties, Philadelphia will instead use him as the everyday first baseman in at least 2024, allowing the Phillies to both address a first base need and to get more at-bats in the outfield for such players as Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Cristian Pache.

Even with these injuries clouding the picture, Harper is still unquestionably a force at the plate.  He has hit .284/.395/.536 over 2497 plate appearances in a Phillies uniform, as well as a whopping 1.137 OPS over 126 PA in the postseason.  Harper was the NL MVP in 2021, and he helped lead the Phillies end their playoff drought with a World Series appearance in 2022, and then a trip to Game Seven of the NLCS in 2023.

If Harper was a free agent now entering his age-31 season, would he land more than eight years and $196MM?  The answer certainly would appear to be yes, as Harper’s mighty bat might very well outweigh any concerns over his long-term health or defensive future.  Speculatively, if security is still Harper’s focus more than pure money, the Phillies could float an extension that adds a couple of years to Harper’s contract at a lesser AAV, or perhaps a restructured deal entirely that lengthens the contract but lowers the Phils’ annual tax hit even further.

Reports: Ohtani Still Undecided On Next Club

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Free agent Shohei Ohtani has not made a decision on his next club, per reports from Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN and others. Earlier today, a report from J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation relayed that the two-way superstar would be signing with the Blue Jays, though nothing has been made official as of yet. Ohtani was reported to be en route to Toronto by Jon Morosi of MLB.com, though Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Ohtani is at home in Southern California. Morosi has since retracted the report about Ohtani traveling to Toronto.

Ohtani’s free agency has been shrouded in secrecy by design, with the player and his reps preferring to keep the proceedings as private as possible. Recent reports have pegged the Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Cubs the finalists, though most of those clubs were hesitant to even admit they were involved, given Ohtani’s wishes. Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke with reporters via Zoom during the Winter Meetings and would not divulge where he was. Later reporting from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic indicated that it was “believed” that Ohtani met with the Jays at their facilities in Dunedin, Florida at that time. There were also “rumblings” that Ohtani met with the Giants at Oracle Park, per Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts broke through this cone of silence earlier this week, frankly admitting that his club had recently met with Ohtani and identified him as a “top priority.” Many wondered if this plain-spoken approach would harm the Dodgers’ chances of signing Ohtani, given his clear desire for privacy. But Hoornstra reports it’s not believed that had any role in Ohtani’s choice, even a choice has even been made.

All of this has made it very difficult to secure concrete information about Ohtani’s market and what sort of discussions he was having with his suitors, though Morosi reported this morning that a decision was “imminent” and could be announced as soon as today.

Red Sox Acquire Tyler O’Neill

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The Red Sox brought in outfield help on Friday night, announcing the acquisition of outfielder Tyler O’Neill from the Cardinals. Right-handers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos are going back to St. Louis.

O’Neill, 29 in June, has had a mercurial career but showed his tremendous ceiling as recently as 2021. He played 138 games that season, hitting 34 home runs. He struck out at a high 31.3% clip but hit .286/.352/.560 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He also received strong grades for his outfield defense and stole 15 bases. That all-around production led to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, whereas Baseball Reference had him at 6.1 WAR.

But the results since then have been less impressive, with injuries seeming to drag him down. In the past two seasons, O’Neill has hit the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, a left hamstring strain, a lower back strain and a right foot sprain. He’s been able to get into just 168 games over those two campaigns, hitting 23 home runs and producing a batting line of .229/.310/.397. That amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been just a bit below league average.

It appeared that he had fallen out of favor in St. Louis over that time. In early 2023, he and manager Oli Marmol got in a bit of a spat, where the skipper publicly admonished O’Neill for a perceived lack of hustle. Though the outfielder pushed back on the idea that he wasn’t giving full effort and also seemed displeased with Marmol making the disagreement public.

As the Cardinals fell out of contention during the most recent season, it seemed as though O’Neill could have been traded at the deadline a few months ago, since he’s slated for free agency after 2024. But no deal materialized and he stuck with the club into the current offseason. In recent weeks, trade rumors surfaced and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak did little to quell them. “In the outfield, right now, if we were to play tomorrow it’d likely be [Lars Nootbaar], Tommy Edman and [Jordan Walker],” said Mozeliak during the Winter Meetings earlier this week. “Our fourth outfielder would be Dylan Carlson. … Tyler O’Neill is somebody that we are listening to on trades.”

But for the Red Sox, O’Neill makes plenty of sense. After they traded Alex Verdugo earlier this week, their outfield projects to have lefties Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. The club also has righties Ceddanne Rafaela and Rob Refsnyder, but the former has just 28 games of experience while the latter is a platoon specialist. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently spoke about how the club would like to add a right-handed hitter capable of playing center field, but that it wouldn’t be a need.

O’Neill does indeed hit from the right side and has played some center field, having logged 303 2/3 innings there over 40 games in his career. The defensive reviews are mixed but it’s hard to glean much in such a small sample.

He will likely not be Plan A in center anyhow. Per a report from Jen McCaffrey and Chad Jennings of The Athletic this week, the club considers Rafaela a viable center field option. Even if he were to struggle in his first extended stretch of play in the big leagues, Duran has spent plenty of time up the middle and Abreu has seen action there as well. But all told, he balances the mix and will be a low-cost upside play for the Sox.

As mentioned, O’Neill is slated for free agency after 2024. Per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, he’s projected for a salary of just $5.5MM next year before reaching the open market. If he gets back to his 2021 upside, he would be a bargain and could help the club return to contention or perhaps turn into a midseason trade chip if the Sox are out of the race. If he continues to struggle, he can yield playing time to Duran, Rafaela or Abreu, depending on who is performing well.

The Cardinals came into this offseason with a notable position player surplus. Mozeliak outlined the outfield situation, which also includes players like Alec Burleson and Richie Palacios. But they also have Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt on the infield corners. Up the middle, they have Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan as potential options.

It was thought that they would use this surplus to add their rotation, where they were looking to add three arms. But they rather quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to bolster their starting group. That led to recent speculation that an eventual position player trade would return bullpen help or prospects.

Robertson, 25, was drafted by the Dodgers and added to that club’s 40-man roster earlier this year, but he was flipped to Boston as part of the Enrique Hernández trade from a few months ago. He has 22 1/3 innings of MLB experience between the two clubs with an earned run average of 6.04, though with more encouraging peripherals. He struck out 24.5% of batters faced while walking 8.5% and getting grounders at a 47.1% clip. His .397 batting average on balls in play and 57.5% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of average, leading to a 3.88 FIP and 3.76 SIERA.

He was even better in the minors, having tossed 42 2/3 Triple-A innings between the two clubs with a 3.16 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. He still has a couple of options, so the Cards don’t need to commit an active roster spot to him right away, but he’s already had some MLB experience and could potentially be part of their club in the coming season.

Santos, 23, has mostly been a starter in the minors but hasn’t ever really been a top prospect, though he has received plaudits for his command. He tossed 145 innings in 2022, split between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.97 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average but his 5.6% walk rate was quite strong. He didn’t pitch in 2023 because of injury. He’ll provide the Cards with a bit of non-roster depth for their starting staff.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported O’Neill was being traded to Boston. Sean McAdam of MassLive reported that St. Louis would receive two minor leaguers. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that Robertson and Santos were going to the Cardinals.

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