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Archives for 2023

Orioles Interested In Robert Stephenson

By Mark Polishuk | December 2, 2023 at 12:42pm CDT

With the Orioles already exploring the high-end reliever market, Robert Stephenson is another name drawing interest from Baltimore, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X).

The O’s saw plenty of Stephenson when he pitched for the Rays last season, a 38 1/3-inning stint that set a new ceiling on the former first-rounder’s potential.  While Stephenson had posted good results over full seasons (with the Reds in 2019 and with the Rockies in 2021) and for the last month of the 2022 season after the Pirates claimed him away from Colorado, the right-hander had simply been too inconsistent to be a truly reliable bullpen arm.  Stephenson had a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings with Pittsburgh last season before the Rays acquired him in a June trade, and that’s when the turnaround happened.

Stephenson proceeded to post a 2.35 ERA, 42.9% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate over his 38 1/3 frames for Tampa, suddenly breaking out as one of the best relievers in baseball.  A tiny .194 BABIP undoubtedly contributed to that success, yet the rest of Stephenson’s metrics were so impressive that batted-ball luck alone couldn’t account for his success.  Replacing his slider with a cutter as his secondary pitch worked wonders for Stephenson, as his cutter became one of the more overpowering pitches in all of baseball.

While 38 1/3 innings isn’t a huge sample size by any stretch, Stephenson’s run in Tampa Bay was so dominant that it has made him one of the most sought-after names on the relief market as he enters his age-31 season.  Morosi previously reported that the Cubs, Angels, and Dodgers all had interest in the righty’s services, and the Orioles now become the fourth team linked to the Stephenson market.

MLBTR ranked Stephenson 27th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, projecting a four-year, $36MM contract.  Darragh McDonald also picked the Orioles as Stephenson’s landing spot, despite the fact that the O’s have yet to sign any player to even a multi-year contract during Mike Elias’ tenure as general manager.  While nobody expects the Orioles to suddenly go wild with spending this winter, the team’s 101-win 2023 season shows that Baltimore is firmly capable of contending for a championship, and some level of payroll increase is likely necessary to add what might be only a couple of final pieces to the team’s impressive talent core.

The Orioles have showed signs that they’re at least considering some higher-level expenditures.  Baltimore reportedly checked in on Aaron Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, and their ventures into the relief market have included links to Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, and Craig Kimbrel.

Stephenson perhaps joins Hicks as something of a middle ground between the nine-figure, multi-year deal it will likely take to land Hader and the one-year deals Kimbrel or Chapman are likely to sign.  Signing Stephenson, Hicks, or Hader would give the O’s a longer-term relief arm even after Felix Bautista returns from Tommy John surgery, and putting any of those relievers with Bautista and Yennier Cano in 2025 and beyond makes for a very promising bullpen situation.

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Baltimore Orioles Robert Stephenson

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Reds Re-Sign Connor Overton To Minors Deal

By Mark Polishuk | December 2, 2023 at 11:27am CDT

The Reds have re-signed Connor Overton to a minor league deal, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy.  The right-hander was outrighted off of Cincinnati’s 40-man roster in early October and entered minor league free agency, but Overton now looks to return for what will be his third season in the Reds organization.

Overton underwent Tommy John surgery last May, so he isn’t expected to be part of the Reds’ 2024 plans until around midseason.  Since this was the second TJ procedure of Overton’s career, it is possible his recovery time might take a little longer than the usual 12-15 month timeframe, and it can’t be ruled out that he might need all of 2024 to rehab.  The minor league deal gives Overton and the Reds some low-risk security in allowing him to rehab in a familiar environment while seeing what he can potentially contribute on the field.

Overton made only three starts and threw 11 innings (to the tune of an 11.45 ERA) in 2023, and the combination of a stress reaction in his back and a hamstring injury also limited him to 33 innings over six appearances in 2022.  He has a 4.85 ERA over 59 1/3 total innings in the bigs, with the Blue Jays, Pirates, and Reds since his MLB debut in 2021.

A 15th-round pick for the Marlins back in the 2014 draft, Overton bounced around both the affiliated and independent minor leagues before breaking into the majors with Toronto.  Working as both a starter and a reliever since the canceled 2020 minor league season, Overton’s numbers have been quite impressive at the Triple-A level, which is likely another reason why the Reds wanted to keep the 30-year-old in the fold.  Overton’s first priority is simply to get healthy, but there is some possible late-bloomer potential if Overton can translate his Triple-A success to the majors.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Connor Overton

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Latest On Cardinals’ Pitching Pursuits

By Mark Polishuk | December 2, 2023 at 10:21am CDT

The Cardinals entered the offseason looking for three new starting pitchers, and that goal has already been accomplished with the signings of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson.  To this end, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated that the club has done a lot of the heavy lifting on its efforts to upgrade the rotation, yet he didn’t rule out more additions.

“We feel like we have a strong five right now,” Mozeliak told Gregg Palermo of Spectrum News.  “We feel like we have three or four guys that could give us depth throughout the season as well, so it’s not like a front-line priority but you never say never because something may pop up and make sense.”

In discussing the club’s tactics as a whole, Mozeliak said “we were very aggressive in the free agent market which was strategic.  We did not think we were going to be able to acquire what we were looking for via trade, at least where we didn’t feel like we were going to give up something that we were comfortable with, and so now that we do have some starting pitching we are going to be looking at things for our bullpen and be open-minded because there could be something that we haven’t thought about.”

Technically, St. Louis now has a rotation surplus given all of the younger arms behind the projected starting five of Gray, Lynn, Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz.  It isn’t to say that the Cardinals are necessarily itching to deal from their starting depth since the team very likely wants to have as much depth as possible on hand to withstand another spate of injuries, not to mention the fact that only Gray had a clear-cut quality season in 2023.

However, it does make sense that the Cardinals would be open to moving one or two of their younger arms if it means bringing in more top-of-the-rotation help.  In addition to their interest in White Sox starter Dylan Cease, the Cards have “discussed internally what a potential trade for Tampa Bay ace Tyler Glasnow would look like,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.

This isn’t really surprising news given that front offices routinely consider scores of free agents and trade candidates, and it seems similarly likely that the Cardinals probably at least checked in with the Rays about Glasnow as a matter of due diligence.  Perhaps most notably, Goold made specific mention that the Cardinals were weighing how Glasnow’s $25MM salary for 2024 would fit their payroll picture, which is currently projected to be slightly above their $178MM payroll from 2023.

While the Rays have stated they are comfortable carrying a larger payroll than usual for 2024, the general feeling is that Tampa will still try to move some salaries between now and Opening Day.  This could manifest itself as trades of other players (i.e. Harold Ramirez, Manuel Margot, or maybe even Randy Arozarena) rather than Glasnow, yet the right-hander’s $25MM salary is easily the highest on Tampa Bay’s roster, and he isn’t seen as a long-term fixture given that Glasnow is eligible for free agency next winter.  This short-term appeal makes Glasnow an interesting fit for many teams, including St. Louis if the Cardinals are okay with a one-year payroll bump, or if they look to shed some salaries themselves either as part of a Glasnow trade, or in other deals.

Turning to the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Yuki Matsui are a couple of the names already reported as players of interest for the Cardinals, and Goold adds Phil Maton as another target.  Maton has been an effective workhorse out of the Astros pen over the last two seasons, posting a 3.42 ERA and spectacular soft-contact numbers over 135 appearances and 131 2/3 regular-season innings.  A broken pinkie finger kept Maton from participating in Houston’s World Series run in 2022, but he has an outstanding playoff resume nonetheless, with an 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 career postseason innings.

Maton (who turns 31 in March) went to high school in Chatham, Illinois, around a 90-minute drive away from St. Louis.  As Goold notes, geography also played a factor in the signings of Gray and Gibson, so the Cardinals might look to continue this trend to lure another semi-local product in Maton.  There hasn’t been a lot of buzz about Maton’s market to date, yet the relief pitching market as a whole hasn’t really gotten cooking, as teams have been primarily first focusing on starters.

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Notes St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays John Mozeliak Phil Maton Tyler Glasnow

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Blue Jays Interested In Brantley, Pederson, Kiner-Falefa

By Mark Polishuk | December 2, 2023 at 8:33am CDT

The Blue Jays have been linked to such high-profile names as Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, and others on the free agent and trade markets, yet the team isn’t only focusing on these top-tier names to address their roster needs.  According to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Jays have interest in free agent outfielders Michael Brantley and Joc Pederson, as well as utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

These names have long been on the radar of Jays GM Ross Atkins, who has at least explored the possibility of acquiring all of the trio in the past.  Kiner-Falefa was targeted at the last trade deadline, Pederson was targeted during his last stint in free agency during the 2021-22 offseason, and Brantley reportedly seemed on the verge of signing with Toronto in the winter of 2020-21 before opting to return to the Astros at something of the eleventh hour.

To some extent, Brantley or Pederson could be seen as backup plans if Toronto didn’t acquire Soto, since left field is the primary defensive spot for all three players.  A world exists where the Blue Jays could trade for Soto and then sign one of the other two outfielders, with an eye towards using Brantley or Pederson primarily as a designated hitter (with Soto or George Springer also getting some DH time for partial rest days).  Such a scenario might somewhat run counter to the Jays’ focus on defense over the last year, though Daulton Varsho would still be anchoring center field, and the Jays might be willing to sacrifice some glovework to boost their middling lineup.

In the bigger picture, none of Brantley, Pederson, or Kiner-Falefa would really be obstacles to any bigger-name acquisitions the Blue Jays might have in mind.  The three veterans are all likely to be had on one-year contracts, similar to Toronto’s signings of Kevin Kiermaier or Brandon Belt last winter.

Pederson hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 home runs over 425 plate appearances for the Giants last season, as his 111 wRC+ was still quite respectable but a big step down from the 146 wRC+ posted in 2022.  It was something of an unusual year for Pederson in 2023, as he cut back on his strikeouts and increased his walk rate, but seemingly at the cost of a good chunk of his usual power.  Pederson still had some of the best hard-contact numbers of any player in the league, and a .268 BABIP and a big gap in his wOBA (.331) and his xwOBA (.366) indicates that the 31-year-old might’ve been somewhat unlucky to post only a 111 wRC+.

That said, 2022 does stand out as something of an outlier amongst Pederson’s last four seasons, and even his career in general.  Without much baserunning or defensive value, Pederson projects best as a DH (or part-time left fielder or first baseman), and limiting him to plate appearances against only right-handed pitching is preferable given his career splits.

Brantley would also have to be considered a part-time option due to his health, as shoulder surgery and recurring soreness kept Brantley out of action from June 2022 until August of last season.  He amassed 89 total PA with the Astros during the regular season and postseason, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Brantley’s eventual contract contains a lot of incentive clauses tied to playing time.  The former five-time All-Star showed only flashes of his old self at the plate in 2023, though it is possible another full offseason of rest and rehab might get Brantley back into something closer to his past form.

Kiner-Falefa is in some ways the easiest player to project of the trio, as the 28-year-old has pretty firmly established himself as a light-hitting jack of all trades who can provide at least respectable defense at a wide variety of positions.  A Gold Glove winner with the Rangers as a third baseman in 2020, IKF could be viewed by the Blue Jays as a potential glove-first replacement for Matt Chapman at the hot corner, with the Jays then presumably looking to add bigger bats to fill their other holes at second base, left field, or DH.  If Toronto doesn’t think enough of Kiner-Falefa’s bat to merit a semi-starting role, he could simply be a top utility option off the bench, giving the Blue Jays some flexibility in how hard they need to push on any one of their particular positions of need.

As usual, Atkins is seemingly keeping tabs on just about every prominent player on the market, and Davidi hears from player agents that the Blue Jays are “planning to shift quickly if needed” should their attempts at a superstar acquisition fall short.  In terms of Ohtani specifically, Davidi is doubtful the two-time AL MVP will ultimately land in Toronto, yet the Jays aren’t really costing themselves by exploring the possibility since the position-player market is moving quite slowly.  It could be that several teams and players are in the same boat as the Blue Jays in waiting on Ohtani’s decision to open up the market to a fuller extent.

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Toronto Blue Jays Isiah Kiner-Falefa Joc Pederson Michael Brantley Shohei Ohtani

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Rangers, Mets, Red Sox Reportedly Shift Focus Away From Pursuit Of Shohei Ohtani

By Steve Adams | December 1, 2023 at 11:57pm CDT

Rumors about the state of Shohei Ohtani’s market in free agency have been decidedly and deliberately scarce. Ohtani is said to prefer things to be kept quiet and close to the vest, and teams involved in the bidding surely don’t want to jeopardize their chances by being too forthcoming in terms of leaking information to the media. ESPN’s Jeff Passan pulls back the curtain a bit this morning, however, writing that at least three teams — the Rangers, Mets and Red Sox — have turned their attention to other players at this stage of the process. While each of the three were among Ohtani’s original group of suitors, it seems the trio has become pessimistic about their chances of closing a deal.

The Rangers’ ostensible exit from the Ohtani bidding dovetails with recent comments from general manager Chris Young, who just yesterday told reporters that he does not anticipate spending to the same extent he did in the past two offseasons. Texas dropped more than $500MM in the 2021-22 offseason when signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. The Rangers spent more than $200MM last winter when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Whether the expectation for lesser spending is because they feel they’re out of the Ohtani bidding or vice versa, the end result seems to be an expectation and concession that the two-time AL MVP and longtime Rangers division rival will sign elsewhere.

As for the Mets, there was never any question whether they have the funds to pay Ohtani a contract that’s widely expected to eclipse $500MM by a comfortable margin. Owner Steve Cohen is the sport’s wealthiest and most aggressive owner. But there have long been questions about Ohtani’s desire to play in the New York spotlight and deal with the inherent media frenzy associated with that market. It should come as no surprise that the Mets (and likely the Yankees) nevertheless tried, but Passan’s report suggests those efforts have come up short. To that end, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Ohtani’s countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is currently the Mets’ primary focus.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation help for the 2024 season, which doesn’t apply to Ohtani while he mends from elbow surgery. (Though he’d clearly be a factor in their 2025 rotation and beyond.) Prior reports have suggested that Boston’s focus, thus far, has been more on the trade market than on free agency. That doesn’t definitively mean that the Sox aren’t willing to spend lavishly on free agents this winter, but if their pursuit of immediate rotation help eventually leads them to free agency, it’d make for a particularly expensive offseason to pursue both Ohtani and one of the remaining top-end starters (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery).

While those three clubs are out of the mix, Ohtani’s market does still include the likes of the Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels, per Passan. That’s not intended to be a comprehensive list of the remaining suitors, however. It stands to reason that other clubs could yet be in play. The Giants have long been linked to Ohtani, as have the Mariners — although Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported a couple weeks ago suggested that the Mariners were unlikely to ultimately land him.

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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Newsstand Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Shohei Ohtani Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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Diamondbacks Sign Ricky Karcher To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2023 at 11:26pm CDT

The D-Backs have signed reliever Ricky Karcher to a minor league contract, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. The Snakes also brought back Humberto Castellanos on a non-roster deal.

Karcher joins the second organization of his career. The Reds selected him in the 13th round of the 2017 draft. The 6’4″ righty moved to the bullpen full-time in 2021. He has shown the ability to miss plenty of bats in the minor leagues but also demonstrated significant control issues. In parts of six minor league seasons, he owns a 26.4% strikeout rate while walking a massive 20.4% of batters faced.

Despite the strike-throwing concerns, Cincinnati added Karcher to the 40-man roster last offseason. That kept him out of the Rule 5 draft. They called him up for the first time in early June. He pitched once, tossing a scoreless inning against the Royals. Karcher averaged just under 98 MPH with his fastball in that appearance, pointing to the power arsenal he has shown in the minors.

That wasn’t enough to hold his roster spot with the Reds. The 26-year-old had a rough season at Triple-A Louisville, where he walked almost a quarter of his opponents over 60 1/3 innings. He posted a 4.77 ERA in 51 outings there, with Cincinnati outrighting him from the 40-man around the All-Star Break. Karcher qualified for minor league free agency at season’s end.

Castellanos is a depth starter who logged 100 2/3 MLB innings with the Astros and D-Backs between 2020-22. A soft-tossing control specialist, he owns a 5.45 ERA with a modest 16.6% strikeout rate. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2022. Arizona ran him through waivers last offseason and he missed this year rehabbing. If he’s healthy next spring, he could head to Triple-A Reno as rotation or long relief insurance.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Transactions Humberto Castellanos Ricky Karcher

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Padres Re-Sign Jose Espada To Minor League Contract

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2023 at 9:51pm CDT

The Padres have brought back righty Jose Espada on a minor league deal, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. San Diego had non-tendered him a few weeks ago.

Espada, 27 in February, made his major league debut in the season’s final week. The Padres added him to the 40-man roster at the end of September. He pitched once, throwing a scoreless inning to punctuate a victory over the Cardinals. He struck out a pair while issuing two walks.

While he has only received that cup of coffee at the highest level, Espada has been in the professional ranks since 2015. He spent time in the Red Sox and Blue Jays organizations before joining the Padres out of independent ball in 2022. The Puerto Rico native had his strongest season this year. Working in a multi-inning capacity, he combined for a 2.81 ERA in 83 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A. Espada fanned an excellent 32.3% of opponents in the minors, although he paired that with a notable 12.5% walk rate.

Espada will look to build off that generally strong performance as he seeks another spot on the 40-man roster. He has a full slate of minor league options, so the Friars could move him between San Diego and Triple-A El Paso if they reselect his contract at any point.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Jose Espada

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Braves, Tommy Doyle Agree To Minor League Deal

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2023 at 8:38pm CDT

The Braves have added reliever Tommy Doyle on a minor league contract, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. It seems likely he’ll get an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Doyle spent a little over a week on the free agent market. The right-hander was designated for assignment as the corresponding move when the Rockies acquired Cal Quantrill from the Guardians. Colorado non-tendered him directly from DFA limbo, meaning Doyle never landed on waivers (as is otherwise the case for players who are DFA and not traded).

That sent him to free agency for the first time. A third-round pick of Colorado in 2017, Doyle made a very brief MLB debut at the end of the shortened season. The Rox outrighted him from the 40-man roster a year later but reselected his contract this past July.

The Virginia product logged his most extensive major league action out of the Rox’s bullpen in the second half. He appeared in 15 games, working 23 2/3 innings. Doyle struggled to a 6.85 ERA with a subpar 17.5% strikeout percentage and a hefty 12.6% walk rate. Things were much better in Triple-A, where he turned in a 3.41 ERA over 37 innings despite working in a brutal home environment for pitchers in Albuquerque. Doyle punched out a solid 26.6% of batters faced at the top minor league level, albeit with a still concerning 11.7% walk rate.

There aren’t likely to be many season-opening opportunities in the Atlanta bullpen. The Braves have spots committed to Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, Reynaldo López, Tyler Matzek and Aaron Bummer. Even if López works out of the starting rotation, as the organization has suggested is possible, there’d only be around two vacancies available if everyone is healthy. Dylan Lee or Daysbel Hernández could have first crack at those jobs. Doyle figures to open the year at Triple-A Gwinnett as a depth option.

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Atlanta Braves Transactions Tommy Doyle

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Reds Notes: McLain, Marte, Ashcraft, Lodolo

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2023 at 7:58pm CDT

An excellent rookie season for Reds infielder Matt McLain was brought to a sour end by an oblique strain. He didn’t play after August 27, missing the final month as the Reds came up a little shy of the postseason.

That injury is now behind him. McLain told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that he is working out and swinging without issue. The 24-year-old said he’s preparing for a defensive role at either middle infield position.

McLain split his rookie year between those spots. He saw a little more action on the left side, playing 465 innings at shortstop and 296 at second base. As things stand, McLain projects as Cincinnati’s starting shortstop. Arguably the most impressive of the Reds’ strong rookie class, he cemented himself as an everyday player with a .290/.357/.507 slash through his first 89 MLB contests.

Whether McLain sticks at shortstop likely depends on how Cincinnati proceeds with Jonathan India. The latter’s name has again come up in trade rumors since the offseason got underway. President of baseball operations Nick Krall pushed back somewhat on that possibility, categorizing any openness to dealing India more as general diligence than an indication they’re trying to subtract from an infield surplus.

Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer are all options for the left side of the infield. De La Cruz and Marte can handle either shortstop or third base. Encarnacion-Strand might be better suited at first base; Steer has third base experience but could play a bat-first utility role between the corners and designated hitter. It’s a strong collection of talent that allows the front office to consider swapping an infielder for pitching help even after the free agent additions of Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagán.

Marte hit a minor snag while playing in the Dominican Republic. Krall told reporters the 22-year-old strained a hamstring and will be shut down from finishing the winter ball season (relayed by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). The issue isn’t expected to affect his readiness for Spring Training. Marte hit well following a late-season MLB debut, putting together a .316/.366/.456 showing in his first 35 big league games.

In additional injury updates, Krall said pitchers Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft should be full-go for Spring Training (Goldsmith link). The former’s season was wrecked by recurring stress reactions in his left tibia. He didn’t pitch in the majors after May 6. Ashcraft sustained a stress reaction in the big toe on his right foot. He underwent season-ending surgery in the middle of September.

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Cincinnati Reds Notes Graham Ashcraft Matt McLain Nick Lodolo Noelvi Marte

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Dodgers Have Interest In Lucas Giolito

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2023 at 7:08pm CDT

The Dodgers are in need of multiple starting pitchers. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that L.A. has shown interest in free agent right-hander Lucas Giolito as part of that search.

It’s the first known link for Giolito, who is one of the more difficult evaluations in the class. It wasn’t that long ago that the longtime White Sox hurler looked on his way to a nine-figure deal. Giolito sported a 3.79 ERA with a strong 25.8% strikeout rate over 21 starts at the time of the trade deadline. He had turned 29 in July, making him one of the younger starters in the class. A midseason trade to the Angels rendered him ineligible for the qualifying offer, removing draft pick compensation as a factor.

His market has since been muddled by a dismal final couple months. Giolito was rocked for a 6.89 ERA in six starts as an Angel. The Halos plummeted from playoff contention and put him on waivers. The Guardians claimed him and gave him the ball six more times to close the year. Giolito had an even tougher run in Cleveland, posting a 7.04 ERA. In his final 12 appearances of the season, he was tagged for a 6.96 ERA and surrendered a staggering 21 home runs in 63 1/3 innings (just under three homers per nine).

Giolito concluded the year with a 4.88 ERA overall. That marked his second straight season allowing nearly five earned runs per nine innings. It’s a notable drop from the mid-3.00s marks he posted each year between 2019-21, although that’s mostly a reflection of the season’s last two months.

To his credit, the former All-Star took all 33 turns through the rotation. It marked his third straight season surpassing 30 starts and continued an exceptional run of durability over the last six years. Giolito is tied for fifth in starts and ranks eighth in innings pitched since the 2018 season. He isn’t missing bats as he had at his 2019-20 peak, but he has fanned more than a quarter of opponents over the last two years.

Giolito certainly won’t continue allowing home runs at the clip he had in Anaheim and Cleveland. Teams can anticipate some amount of positive regression in that regard, but it’s still hard to draw up a much worse finish to a pitcher’s platform year short of injury.

That leaves him in an interesting spot as a free agent. If he simply wanted to maximize his earning potential, he could still look for three or four years. Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker secured four years with an average salary in the $17-18MM range last winter despite some inconsistency in their career track records. Yet Giolito is also young enough to potentially prioritize a chance to get back to free agency within a season or two. MLBTR predicted he’d go the latter route, estimating a two-year, $44MM contract that allows him to opt out after the first season.

A shorter-term pact of that nature could be particularly appealing to the Dodgers. They have shied away from long-term investments in free agent starters. A pitcher-friendly home park could mitigate some of the homer concerns, while Giolito’s track record of absorbing innings would be welcome for a young staff. It’d be similarly easy to see the appeal from the player’s perspective. The Dodgers have a strong reputation for developing pitching. That Giolito is an L.A. native who attended Harvard-Westlake is an added bonus.

While there’s a sensible fit, Giolito may need to wait until some of the top starters come off the board. Harris notes that the Dodgers are essentially in a holding pattern as they await clarity on their chances of adding Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Los Angeles has an estimated $70MM available before even reaching the first luxury tax threshold, so they’ll surely add multiple players, but they’ll presumably have various offseason plans contingent on whether they land either of their top two targets.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Lucas Giolito

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