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Latest On Corbin Burnes

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Right-hander Corbin Burnes of the Brewers is one of the most attractive trade candidates this winter but it’s not clear if the club will actually pull the trigger on a deal. Earlier today, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Brewers “have engaged teams in recent days” about Burnes. But last night, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that rival clubs think Burnes is likely to remain in Milwaukee.

It’s a tricky spot for the Brewers to be in, as there are arguments for both sides. On the one hand, they are the reigning division champions and are in a strong position to do well again in 2024. Brandon Woodruff’s injury and subsequent non-tender hurts them, but they have one of the best prospects in the league, Jackson Chourio, on the rise and potentially debuting next year. With Woodruff out of the picture, trading Burnes would only further hamper a rotation that has been such a strength for them.

But on the other hand, Burnes is going into his final season of arbitration control. He recently spoke candidly about how an extension is not in the cards. They could hold onto him and give him a qualifying offer at the end of 2024, but they would likely be able to get something better by trading him now. There’s also the risk, as they just saw with Woodruff, that an injury completely alters their future plans.

If Burnes were available, he would undoubtedly get plenty of interest. All reports indicate that the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high this offseason. Some clubs will be able to sign marque free agents like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but others will come up short in those pursuits while some clubs won’t be able to shop in that aisle at all due to payroll concerns. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, a bargain for a pitcher of his quality.

The righty has tossed 622 1/3 innings over the past four seasons with an earned run average of 2.86. He has struck out 30.9% of batters faced in that time, walked 7.1% of opponents and kept 46.4% of balls in play on the ground. His tally of 17.9 wins above replacement in that frame, per FanGraphs, is second to Zack Wheeler among all pitchers in the league.

He has already been connected to the Dodgers, Cubs and Orioles in rumors but it stands to reason that plenty of other clubs would be interested. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at some of the best fits in a theoretical trade.

Today’s reports don’t shed much light on the possibility of a trade actually coming together. It’s fair to assume that the Brewers would want to have talks with all potential trade partners and assess the packages on offer before deciding what is best for the club in 2024 and in the long run. They could use some upgrades on the infield and in the rotation, and the latter of those two needs would only grow if Burnes did end up in another uniform.

Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks

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The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.

All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.

It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.

But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.

Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players:  C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.

Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.

It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.

As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.

Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.

Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.

It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.

Pirates Sign Ali Sánchez To Major League Deal

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The Pirates announced that they have signed catcher Ali Sánchez to a major league deal. They also announced their claim of right-hander Roddery Muñoz, which was previously reported. Their 40-man roster is now at 38.

Sánchez, 27 in January, spent 2023 with the Diamondbacks in a non-roster capacity, getting outrighted by that club in January. He went on to have a solid season in Triple-A, getting into 67 games and hitting 11 home runs. He walked in 9.7% of his plate appearances while only striking out at a 15.7% clip. His .311/.375/.492 batting line in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League translated to a wRC+ of 108. The Bucs were evidently impressed enough with that performance to add the backstop directly onto their 40-man roster.

He already has some major league experience, though a miniscule sample of just seven games, five with the Mets in 2020 and then two with the Cardinals in 2021. He has generally been considered a glove-first catcher, so the nice showing at the plate in 2023 makes him a potentially interesting under-the-radar pickup for the Bucs. Sánchez is out of options, so the Pirates will have to keep him on the active roster and won’t be able to send him to the minors without first exposing him to waivers.

The catching situation in Pittsburgh is somewhat in flux at the moment, with prospects Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis both having debuted in 2023. Neither of those two hit very much in their first big league action, but Rodríguez at least showed well defensively. Davis only caught two innings at the major league level, spending most of his time in right field. The club has maintained that they still think of him as a catcher going forward, but he’s clearly a work in progress. Jason Delay has played 127 games for the club over the past two years, mostly in a backup role, though he still has options. Perhaps one or two of these guys will get pushed to Triple-A as Sánchez takes on a backup role at the big league level.

If Sánchez can stick on the roster, he can be a long-term piece for the club. He has less than a year of service time and therefore still has six seasons of club control.

Pirates Claim Roddery Muñoz From Nationals

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The Nationals announced that right-hander Roddery Muñoz was claimed off waivers by the Pirates and that left-hander Joe La Sorsa cleared outright waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Rochester. Washington’s 40-man roster is now at 38 and Pittsburgh’s is at 37.

Muñoz, 24 in April, came up as a prospect with Atlanta and got a spot on their 40-man roster a year ago to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He was designated for assignment in July and was claimed by the Nationals. Though he was recalled briefly by Atlanta in June, he has yet to make his major league debut, getting optioned back to the farm just a few days later.

Between the two clubs, he tossed 78 innings over 34 appearances with a 5.42 earned run average. He struck out 23% of batters faced but walked 15.1%. He was more impressive in 2022, tossing 100 1/3 innings with a 4.66 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate.

It appears the Bucs are intrigued enough to give him a roster spot. Muñoz still has a couple of options remaining, which will allow the Pirates to keep him in the minors without exposing him to waivers. Given his youth and minimal service time, he could be a long-term depth piece for the club, as long as he continues to justify his spot on the 40-man.

La Sorsa, 26 in April, just made his major league debut in 2023. He made two appearances for the Rays before getting claimed off waivers by the Nationals and getting into 23 more contests. Between those two clubs, he tossed 32 2/3 innings with a 4.41 ERA, 19.3% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 42.2% ground ball rate. By clearing waivers, he will provide the Nats will some non-roster depth.

Shane Bieber Reportedly Open To Extension Following Potential Trade

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Guardians righty Shane Bieber is one of the more prominent names on the offseason trade market, with the Cubs and Reds among the many teams to check in thus far. Bieber is slated to become a free agent next offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12.2MM this coming season, giving him the look of an affordable one-year rental for a team on the lookout for rotation upgrades. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Bieber is at least open to the idea of signing an extension with a team that acquires him. Presumably, that’d mean he’s open to a long-term deal in Cleveland as well, although it’s not clear that the generally frugal Guardians would be amenable to that after already hammering out nine-figure extensions with Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez in recent years.

One could argue that it’s natural for Bieber to take this approach, given that he missed more than two months late in the 2023 season with elbow inflammation. He made it back to the mound and looked healthy in a pair of late-season starts, but he’s seen his velocity dip by about three miles per hour since its peak and has a number of red flags in his profile, including strikeout, walk, swinging-strike, chase and ground-ball rates that have all trended in the wrong direction. There’s some logic to taking the risk-averse approach and locking in a long-term deal this offseason.

On the other hand, it’s far more common for players to spurn extension overtures at this stage of their original club control window — particularly following a trade. Players often want to get a feel for their new organization (coaching staff, teammates, competitive outlook).

Furthermore, while Bieber might not command the type of deal he once looked destined for when he was taking home AL Cy Young honors in 2020, he’s still clearly a talented pitcher. The market for even third/fourth starters has progressed over the past couple years, too, evidenced by contracts like the four-year deals awarded to Taijuan Walker ($72MM) and Jameson Taillon ($68MM). Bieber is only 28 (29 in May) and would turn 30 in the first year of a theoretical free-agent deal (or extension). With any form of bounceback season in terms of health, if not performance, he’d have a case for at least a four-year deal.

It’s rare, although not unprecedented for teams to grant extension windows as a conditional element of a trade. Most recently, the Reds simultaneously acquired and extended Sonny Gray in a trade with the Yankees, although that was four years ago. More likely is a scenario where Bieber is simply traded to another club and the two parties spend the remainder of the offseason discussing a potential long-term deal.

Bieber’s openness to an extension might improve his trade value a bit, but one would imagine that openness would ultimately depend on where he’s traded. Using a pair of teams to which he’s already been connected, it’s easier to see a big-payroll team like the Cubs pony up on a long-term pact than it would be a smaller-payroll club like the Reds, who’ve shied away from long-term deals over the past few offseasons. Cincinnati did extend Hunter Greene, but was was a pre-arb deal that isn’t really comparable to Bieber when he’s at five-plus years of service.

While it’s interesting to hear that any prominent player who’s only a year from the open market is amenable to forgoing that right, it’s simultaneously difficult to imagine it happening. Bieber made only two starts in his return from that months-long stay on the injured list, which isn’t much for a new club to go off of when weighing whether to sign him for on a long-term arrangement. From Bieber’s vantage point, it’d be a surprise to see him sign for anything less than those aforementioned Taillon and Walker deals, given his track record. Prior to the 2023 season, he looked like a candidate for a $100MM+ deal in free agency.

The 2023 season tells another story, though. Bieber’s 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 47.2% grounder rate, 91.6 mph average fastball and career-low swinging-strike and chase rates (10.5% and 30.6%) all have the look of a mid-rotation arm rather than an ace and are are all reasons to exercise caution. An uptick in velocity or reversal of course in some combination of those declining rate stats next season would go a long ways toward bolstering his stock. Perhaps Bieber and a new team (or the Guardians themselves) could find some kind of middle ground, but his recent injury troubles — he also missed two months with a shoulder strain in 2021 — and diminished performance might make it particularly difficult to find a middle ground.

Reds Sign Nick Martinez

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Dec. 1: The Reds have formally announced their deal with Martinez. Interestingly, GM Nick Krall tells Reds beat writers that Martinez will come to camp and compete for a job in the rotation — obviously implying that Martinez has not been assured of starting job just yet (link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Martinez will make $14MM next season and will have a $12MM salary in 2025 if he doesn’t opt out, MLBTR has learned.

Nov. 30: The Reds are in agreement with Nick Martinez on a two-year, $26MM guarantee, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). The deal allows the right-hander to opt out after the first season. Yusseff Diaz of Pelota Cubana first reported that Martinez, a client of the Boras Corporation, was signing with Cincinnati.

Martinez, 33, has spent the past two seasons in San Diego. After a three-year run at Japan’s highest level, he signed with the Padres during the 2021-22 offseason. Technically a four-year guarantee, the deal afforded Martinez an opt-out chance after each year. He turned in a 3.47 ERA over 106 1/3 innings in a swing role during the first season and elected to retest free agency.

He parlayed that free agent trip into a new three-year pact with the Friars. Martinez locked in a $10MM salary for this past season, while each side had a two-year option covering the 2024-25 campaigns. He posted a remarkably similar year to his debut campaign as a Padre.

As was the case in 2022, Martinez went into this past season battling for a rotation spot. He took four turns through the rotation while Joe Musgrove was on the injured list in early April. Once Musgrove returned, Martinez moved back into the relief role he had occupied for the majority of the previous season.

He would ultimately appear in 63 contests, starting nine of them. Martinez worked 110 1/3 innings, allowing 3.43 earned runs per nine. He struck out 23% of batters faced behind a solid 12.6% swinging strike percentage. Martinez demonstrated average control and kept the ball on the ground on nearly 54% of batted balls allowed. He excelled at staying off barrels, with opponents making hard contact (a batted ball hit 95 MPH or harder) less than 30% of the time. That contact suppression ranked within the top five percent of qualified pitchers, according to Statcast.

Over his two seasons in San Diego, he combined for a 3.45 ERA with a 22.1% strikeout rate across 216 1/3 frames. At year’s end, both he and the Friars turned down their respective option provisions. San Diego declined to retain him at $16MM annually for the next two seasons, while the player passed on successive $8MM salaries. He ultimately lands between those two price points, securing a $13MM average annual value. The guarantee is in line with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $25MM. The opt-out affords him the flexibility to again get back to free agency a year from now if he turns in a strong season in Cincinnati.

Whether he decides to retest free agency likely depends on how well he holds up over a full season as a starter. The Friars never quite entrusted him with an extended rotation run. Martinez has started only 19 of his 110 appearances since his return to MLB. There hasn’t been a material difference in his run prevention in either role. Martinez owns a 3.48 ERA in 91 relief outings over the past two seasons; he has allowed 3.41 earned runs per nine as a starter.

As one might expect, he has had better underlying marks when working in shorter stints. Martinez’s strikeout rate is a couple points higher out of the bullpen (23% against 20.9%). He has been much better at avoiding free passes as a reliever, walking 7.1% of batters faced in that role compared to an 11.2% rate from the rotation.

Regardless of the slightly worse peripherals, it’s not outlandish to project Martinez as a viable starting pitcher. He has a far deeper repertoire than the typical reliever, turning to five pitches (sinker, changeup, curveball, cutter, four-seam fastball) with regularity. Martinez was effective this year in the few opportunities he received to turn an opposing lineup over a second or third time. He has held his own in unfavorable platoon situations, keeping left-handed batters to a reasonable .242/.322/.408 line since the start of 2022.

Martinez should get a look in Cincinnati’s Opening Day starting five. The Reds had one of the sport’s least effective rotations, finishing 28th in MLB (ahead of only the A’s and Rockies) with a 5.43 ERA. The rotation’s ineffectiveness was the single biggest reason for the team coming up a little shy of the postseason. Addressing the group was a clear priority for GM Nick Krall and his staff heading into the offseason.

Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott headline the in-house options. Nick Lodolo’s 2023 campaign was wrecked by left leg injuries, but he’ll surely have a rotation spot so long as he’s healthy. Graham Ashcraft projects as the #5 starter after overcoming a disastrous first half to turn in a 2.81 ERA from the All-Star Break onward. Brandon Williamson, who pitched to a 4.46 ERA over 117 innings as a rookie, would be the top depth option. Prospects Connor Phillips and Lyon Richardson each made brief big league appearances late in the year.

It’s not a group without talent, but no team can count on its top five or six starters staying healthy for an entire season. Greene and Lodolo have each missed extended chunks of action over the past two years. Abbott and Williamson have yet to play a full season at the MLB level. Martinez doesn’t have an extended track record of starting. The front office could still look for another arm to solidify the group. They’ve been linked to each of Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber on the trade front. Signing Martinez doesn’t necessarily take them out of that market.

Paired with Wednesday afternoon’s signing of reliever Emilio Pagán to a two-year, $16MM deal, this is the most active that Cincinnati has been in free agency for the past few seasons. As reflected on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the Reds hadn’t signed a free agent to a multi-year contract since adding Nick Castellanos on a four-year pact in January 2020. Where ownership sets the spending limit remains to be seen, but there should still be some financial flexibility.

Roster Resource projected the Reds’ 2024 payroll commitments in the $58MM range before the Martinez deal. If the money is evenly distributed — the contract’s specific financial breakdown remains unreported — it’d bring them around $71MM. The club opened the 2023 season with a player payroll approaching $83MM and was well above $100MM in the two preceding seasons.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Claim Kaleb Ort From Mariners

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The Marlins have claimed right-hander Kaleb Ort from the Mariners, per Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase. There was no previous reporting to indicate Ort was available, but the Mariners evidently tried to pass him through waivers. The Marlins now have a 40-man roster count of 39 and the Mariners 38.

Ort, 32 in February, has been with the Red Sox for the past three seasons. He appeared in 47 games at the big league level, tossing 51 2/3 innings with a 6.27 earned run average. This is the second time he has been claimed off waivers since Boston’s season ended, with M’s claiming him in October and now the Marlins today.

The interest likely stems from Ort’s big strikeout numbers in the minor leagues. He has punched out 182 of the 571 batters he’s faced in Triple-A, a rate of 31.9%. He’s also given out walks at a 12.3% clip but it’s understandable that clubs would hope for a breakout with a bit more finesse.

Ort still has an option year remaining, allowing the Marlins to utilize him as a depth piece for the year if he doesn’t earn his way into a major league role. He’s also still cheap, heaving yet to qualify for arbitration. For the Mariners, they have cleared up a couple of roster spots with this claim and also that of Cooper Hummel, who was claimed by the Mets. That gives the M’s some spots for new additions, perhaps in next week’s Rule 5 draft.

Marlins Name John Mabry Hitting Coach, Hire Bill Mueller As Assistant Hitting Coach

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Following the departure of hitting coach Brant Brown, who’s set to join the Mariners’ coaching staff, the Marlins have promoted assistant hitting coach John Mabry to lead hitting coach, reports Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. Miami has also hired former American League batting champion Bill Mueller as its new assistant hitting coach.

Mabry, 53, enters his second season on the Marlins’ coaching staff and his 12th year as a big league coach overall. A veteran of 14 Major League seasons who batted .263/.322/.405 from 1994-2007, Mabry joined the Cardinals’ coaching staff as an assistant hitting coach in 2012 and was later promoted to lead hitting coach in St. Louis as well — a role he held until the 2018 season. He also spent three years on the Royals’ staff prior to joining the Fish. He and Marlins skipper/2023 NL Manager of the Year Skip Schumaker were teammates with the Cards during Schumaker’s rookie season in 2005.

The 52-year-old Mueller will return to a big league dugout for the first time since 2018 — the final of his four seasons as Cardinals’ assistant hitting coach. He overlapped with Mabry throughout that entire tenure, so the two have plenty of familiarity with one another and a strong working relationship. More recently, Mueller worked with the Nationals’ player development department from 2022-23, and he’s also spent time as a special assistant and scout with the Dodgers in addition to a one-year run as the Cubs’ hitting coach in 2014. In parts of 11 seasons from 1996-2006, Mueller batted .291/.373/.425. He won a World Series with the 2004 Red Sox and won a Silver Slugger with Boston in 2003, when he hit .326/.398/.540 en route to that aforementioned AL batting crown.

Mets Claim Tyler Heineman From Blue Jays

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The Mets have claimed catcher Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Blue Jays, with Anthony DiComo of MLB.com among those who relayed the news. There wasn’t any public reporting about Heineman being removed from Toronto’s roster, but they evidently tried to pass him through waivers with the Mets preventing them from succeeding. The Jays’ 40-man roster is now at 37 whereas the Mets are at 33.

Heineman, 33 in June, has played in 104 major league games, scattered over four separate seasons dating back to 2019. He has produced a batting line of .218/.297/282 in his 283 plate appearances, suiting up for the Marlins, Giants, Blue Jays and Pirates. He’s considered an above-average defender overall, grading out positively on Statcast’s blocking and throwing leaderboards. He’s also received positive marks for his pitch framing from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

For the Mets, Heineman figures to improve their depth behind the plate. He still has one option year remaining and is a switch-hitter, giving him flexibility to fit into the club’s plans as the season goes along. Francisco Álvarez and Omar Narváez should be the catching duo in the majors but Heineman and Cooper Hummel, another waiver claim from today, are available if an injury arises. Heineman is still shy of arbitration, meaning he can be retained beyond the upcoming season if the Mets like his work in 2024.

The Mets have been busy bolstering their depth all over the roster in recent days. They have signed one-year deals with Luis Severino, Joey Wendle and Austin Adams, brought Kyle Crick aboard via a minor league deal and now a couple of waiver claims. For the Jays, Heineman was third on the catching depth chart behind Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk. They have freed up a roster spot for future additions, perhaps in next week’s Rule 5 draft, and will likely look to sign a veteran catcher on a non-roster deal to replace Heineman.

Reds Sign Emilio Pagan

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Dec. 1: The Reds have now formally announced the signing of Pagan.

Nov. 29: The Reds are reportedly in agreement with free agent reliever Emilio Pagan on a two-year, $16MM guarantee. The deal consists of matching $8MM salaries and allows Pagan, a client of the Ballengee Group, to opt out after next season. It’s a strong deal for the righty, as the contract contains incentives to boost the total further and could allow him to seek a larger contract next winter if he enjoys a good first year in Cincinnati. The agreement is still pending a physical.

Cincinnati relievers combined for a 4.11 ERA that ranked 15th in the Majors and a 4.48 FIP that ranked 23rd in 2023. In general, it’s a thin and unproven group. Closer Alexis Diaz gives the Reds one high-end arm, and lefty Sam Moll proved to be a quietly strong deadline pickup.

Beyond that, the Reds lacked established, healthy arms. Righty Tejay Antone has been one of the game’s top-performing bullpen arms when healthy, but he missed the entire 2022 season following Tommy John surgery and lasted just 5 2/3 innings in 2023 before departing a September game due to elbow discomfort that proved to be season-ending. Lucas Sims posted a stout 3.10 ERA with a strong strikeout rate in 2023 but also walked more than 15% of his opponents. Waiver pickup Ian Gibaut had a nice season (3.33 ERA), but that was the 30-year-old’s first extended run of MLB success.

Adding some stability makes sense, though the 32-year-old Pagan (33 in May) has something of a rollercoaster track record. In seven big league seasons, Pagan has pitched for five teams. At times, he’s looked the part of a bona fide late-inning force, such as his 2019 season when he saved 20 games for the Rays while logging a 2.31 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate. At other times, Pagan has been far too hittable and displayed below-average command. From 2020-22 with the Padres and Twins, he logged a combined 4.61 ERA with a walk rate nearly double that of his excellent ’19 campaign.

Most recently, Pagan gave the 2023 Twins 69 1/3 innings of 2.99 ERA ball, fanning a solid 23.8% of his opponents against a better-than-average 7.7% walk rate. He averaged nearly 96 mph on his heater and continued career-long trends of inducing both swinging strikes and chases on pitches off the plate at above-average clips. However, Pagan’s rocky 2022 showing in Minnesota pushed him down the bullpen hierarchy; after struggling as a closer and setup man in ’22, he was used in the middle innings and lower-leverage spots this past season.

It’s at least a moderate surprise to see the Reds, in particular, wind up signing Pagan, given that the primary knock against him throughout his career has been a susceptibility to home runs. That doesn’t seem to pair well with Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park, although to Pagan’s credit, he averaged a career-low 0.65 homers per nine frames this past season.

Still, entering the 2023 campaign, Pagan had yielded an average of 1.74 homers per nine innings. Among the 1080 relief pitchers to throw at least 250 career innings since way back in the 1800s, that was the highest rate of any pitcher (hat tip to The Atheltic’s Aaron Gleeman for pointing that out back in 2022). Generally, relievers who give up home runs at such a lofty rate just haven’t stuck around long enough to compile a meaningful number of innings at the MLB level.

The Reds are surely confident in their ability to help Pagan continue his newfound ability to mitigate round-trippers, but if his prior home run tendencies return, his new home confines in Cincinnati would likely only shine a spotlight on that problematic history. If he can keep curtailing the long ball, however, he gives the Reds a hard-throwing righty with late-inning experience who could help serve as a bridge to Diaz at the end of the game. Pagan has fanned 28.1% of his career opponents against a sharp 7% walk rate, and he boasts a very strong 14.1% swinging-strike rate in exactly 400 MLB innings.

In terms of payroll, the Reds will have no problem fitting Pagan (or just about any free agent, for that matter) onto the books. Now that Joey Votto is a free agent, the Reds’ only guaranteed contracts had belonged to Hunter Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile, who’ll earn a combined $6MM in 2024. Add in MLBTR’s projected salaries for their six eligible players — one of whom, Jonathan India, is a trade candidate — and a host of pre-arb names to round out the club, and Roster Resource projects a payroll just south of $59MM after accounting for the Pagan deal. And with Maile on a one-year deal, Pagan and Greene are (at least for now) the only players on guaranteed deals for the 2025 campaign.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Reds had expressed interest in Pagan. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported the Reds and Pagan had agreed to a two-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the $16MM guarantee and the opt-out possibility. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the even salary breakdown.

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