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Archives for July 2025

Pirates Likely To Keep Mitch Keller Beyond Trade Deadline

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Despite weeks of rumors, it looks as though the Pirates won’t be trading Mitch Keller before tomorrow’s trade deadline, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes.  It would take “a dramatic shift” in the team’s thinking for Keller to be moved at this point.

Several contenders (including the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, and Cubs) were publicly linked to Keller in recent days, yet it appears as though none of these suitors or others were able to meet what was known to be a very high asking price for the right-hander’s services.  One rival executive told Rosenthal that it didn’t seem like the Pirates were willing to explore a Keller deal too deeply, and thus ceased talks.

This stance from the Bucs front office tracks with the most recent reporting on Keller, as Rosenthal and Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette each wrote within the last few days that the Pirates were becoming increasingly disinclined to trade the starter.  Pirates GM Ben Cherington told Hiles and other reporters last weekend that the team valued Keller’s “leadership” and “proven performance.”

“If we’re going to be better in 2026, we need more of that, not less.  We would only contemplate giving up something that’s seemingly more proven if we really believe that they give us a better chance to be better by next year,” Cherington said.

Now in his seventh MLB season, Keller has a 3.69 ERA and 6.2% walk rate over 127 innings and 22 starts for Pittsburgh.  His 18.8% strikeout rate is his lowest over a full season and he has correspondingly low chase and whiff rates, plus Keller’s fastball averages a modest 94mph.  His heater does have plenty of spin on it, however, and Keller’s combination of good control, durability, and non-quantitative value as a veteran leader in a young clubhouse makes him a logical player to keep as the Bucs try to break out of their lengthy rebuilding phase.

The club invested in Keller as a face of its next phase of contention by signing him to a multi-year extension prior to the 2024 season.  Keller still has $54.5MM owed to him from 2026-28, as well as the rest of his $15MM salary for the remainder of the 2025 campaign.  This is a very pricey commitment by the Pirates’ standards, and since the team is staring at another losing season, there was some thought that the Bucs could trim salary by moving Keller elsewhere.  The team did move one significant contract off the books when Ke’Bryan Hayes was dealt to the Reds earlier today, which indirectly makes Keller more affordable with more room now in the Pirates’ limited budget.

Hiles heard from a source that the Pirates could re-engage in Keller’s trade market this winter, which could give the team more time and flexibility in finding an acceptable match.  Without the deadline crunch, the Bucs could also lower their asking price to a more realistic level.  Rosenthal suggested that one reason the Keller talks have stalled is because some clubs “perceive him as nothing more than a mid-rotation starter,” and are therefore perhaps balking at giving up much in the way of significant position-player talent in return, or at taking on Keller’s salary.

Pittsburgh could still explore moving one of its younger and more controllable non-Paul Skenes arms before tomorrow, in order to obtain a proven veteran hitter or a young bat of a comparable prospect value.  With Keller now apparently off the board, the Pirates’ decision will raise the asking price for other teams with starters on offer around the league.

Padres Interested In Mason Miller, Continuing To Pursue Jarren Duran

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The Padres continue to lurk on some of the top potential trade candidates. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic wrote this afternoon that San Diego remains enamored with Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran. Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic write that the Friars are involved on Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan as well. Lin and Rosenthal also report that the Padres have interest in A’s flamethrower Mason Miller.

Miller remains a long shot trade candidate but would be one of the most impactful arms available if the A’s seriously consider dealing him. Rosenthal reported this afternoon that the Phillies, Mets and Yankees had all been in touch with the A’s. The Phils and Mets were evidently deterred by the asking price. Philadelphia went on to acquire Jhoan Duran, while the Mets added Ryan Helsley. The Yankees have not pivoted to a different late-game weapon. However, SNY’s Andy Martino suggested this evening that the A’s asking price was high enough that talks with the Yanks had yet to become especially serious.

The Padres have two prospects on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update: infielder Leo De Vries at #5 and catcher Ethan Salas at #65. They’d previously been reluctant to part with either player. Salas’ stock has dipped in recent months, largely because of a back injury that has kept him on the minor league injured list since late April. Salas is still a very good prospect, but De Vries is the clear top talent in the system.

San Diego could have a tough time acquiring an impact player with multiple years of control unless they’re willing to put De Vries on the table. Rosenthal and Lin write that the Padres are at least willing to discuss De Vries and Salas in trade conversations. It stands to reason they’d prefer to build a package around the latter, but his injury might make that difficult right now.

MassLive’s Sean McAdam suggested last week that the Red Sox rebuffed a framework built around Salas and Dylan Cease in talks on Jarren Duran. McCaffrey suggested today that Boston would be more open to building a Duran package around Cease and De Vries. That might be a bridge too far for San Diego.

The Padres’ interest in Miller comes as the Friars are simultaneously considering trading away MLB pitching. They’ve been open to offers on Cease for a few days, listening on the impending free agent starter while separately acquiring controllable pitching. There’d be a similar logic in shopping closer Robert Suarez, who may opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract. Jon Heyman of The New York Post relayed this morning that Suarez is indeed in play in talks with other clubs. (As impending free agents, neither Cease nor Suarez would be of any interest to the A’s.)

San Diego could try to arrange a Suarez deal while making a push for Miller to replace him in the ninth inning. Rosenthal and Lin also float the possibility of the Padres stretching Miller back out as a starting pitcher. That’d be a very difficult ask midseason but could be more viable next spring. Miller moved to the bullpen because of a concerning injury history that included shoulder and elbow issues. Throwing as hard as he does puts plenty of stress on a pitcher’s arm. Still, the upside of returning Miller to a rotation role would be tantalizing. The Padres have had success with Seth Lugo, Michael King and (to a much lesser extent) Stephen Kolek as reliever to rotation conversions. Cease and King are impending free agents, and there’s not much in the way of controllable starting pitching to go around.

None of this is to say that San Diego making a blockbuster acquisition is likely. The A’s control Miller for four and a half seasons. They’re not going to trade him for anything less than a monster haul. It’d take a bigger return than what the Phillies sent to Minnesota for two and a half years of control over Jhoan Duran: top 100 catching prospect Eduardo Tait and young starter Mick Abel. That’s probably also true for Jarren Duran and Kwan, All-Star caliber outfielders who are controllable for multiple seasons. A lot could hinge on De Vries, but if the Padres are genuinely willing to consider dealing one of the 10 or so best prospects in the sport, that’d open plenty of opportunities for a huge swing.

Tigers Acquire Rafael Montero From Braves

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The Tigers announced the acquisition of right-handed reliever Rafael Montero from the Braves, in exchange for minor league infielder Jim Jarvis.  Detroit designated Tyler Owens for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move, and the Tigers will also need to clear 26-man roster space at some point before their next game.

Montero is on the move for the second time in less than four months, as Atlanta picked up the reliever in an early-April trade with Houston.  That deal was mostly a matter of salary relief for the Astros, who are covering roughly $8.5MM of Montero’s $11.5MM salary for the 2025 season.  Montero is still owed roughly $3.83MM for the remainder of the campaign, so while it depends on how exactly the money is being split up, he’ll still be a relatively inexpensive rental add for the Tigers during the pennant race.

Detroit has thus far added Chris Paddack to the rotation, free agent Luke Jackson to the bullpen, and now Montero its relief corps, as the Tigers have yet to pull the trigger on any headline moves.  Merrill Kelly is known to be on the team’s radar and third base targets Eugenio Suarez and Ke’Bryan Hayes have both been dealt already, but since the Tigers’ focus is reportedly on bullpen upgrades, they could be looking to add some arms first before turning to other matters.

How much help Montero can provide is up for debate, as he has a 5.40 ERA over 38 1/3 combined innings for the Braves and Astros, with an untenable 13.9% walk rate that stands out as one of the worst in baseball.  This lack of control has overshadowed some other decent metrics (and an excellent chase rate), and it should be noted that Montero’s numbers were looking a lot better even 10 days ago.  However, he has allowed eight earned runs over his last four games and 3 1/3 innings of work, sending his ERA through the roof.

It could be that the Tigers view these recent struggles as just a blip, and that Montero can right the ship and at least slightly cut back on the walks.  The Tigers surely view Montero more as a middle relief option than a candidate for higher-leverage innings, and even his okay-ish strikeout numbers are a boost to a Detroit bullpen that doesn’t miss many bats.

Montero was an obvious trade chip for a Braves team looking ahead to 2026.  The trade brings back Jarvis, a multi-positional infielder who was an 11th-round pick for Detroit in the 2023 draft.  The University of Alabama product has spent the whole season with Double-A Erie, hitting .242/.316/.336 over 310 plate appearances while playing mostly shortstop, with a good chunk of time at second and third base.

Cubs Acquire Michael Soroka

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The Cubs have acquired right-hander Michael Soroka in a trade with the Nationals, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports.  Washington will receive prospects Ronny Cruz and Christian Franklin in return, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.

Chicago has been tied to several starters and relievers during a wide-ranging search for pitching, and Soroka was an obvious trade candidate as an impending free agent on a non-contending Nats team.  Because Soroka pitched so effectively in a relief role with the White Sox last season, the Cubs could potentially use him in the pen again down the stretch, depending on either how much the team trusts Soroka’s work with Washington, or what other rotation help might be heading to Wrigleyville between now and tomorrow’s 5pm CT deadline.

Soroka signed a one-year, $9MM free agent deal with the Nationals last winter, and his career-long battles with injury continued when a biceps strain cost him about five weeks of action early in the season.  The issue fortunately turned out to be relatively minor, and Soroka has delivered a 4.87 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate, and 7% walk rate across 81 1/3 innings and 16 starts in 2025.

Both the K% and BB% are well above the league average, as is Soroka’s 6.4% barrel rate, which speaks to how his performance isn’t exactly matching his bottom-line results — Soroka’s 3.60 SIERA is over a run lower than his real-world ERA.  He is averaging only 93.5mph on his fastball, and his velocity has been dropping as the season has gone on, which could reflect some fatigue for Soroka as he hasn’t pitched this many innings since his 2019 rookie season.

An All-Star with the Braves during that breakout 2019 campaign, Soroka barely pitched during the 2020-23 seasons due to two achilles tendon surgeries and a variety of arm issues.  He was able to post a 4.74 ERA over 79 2/3 innings with the White Sox last year, but as noted, was far better as a reliever (2.75 ERA in 36 IP) than as a starter (6.39 ERA in 43 2/3 IP).  If it hadn’t been for an ill-timed shoulder strain last July, the White Sox surely would’ve sent Soroka elsewhere at last year’s deadline.

For now, Soroka will step into a Cubs rotation that should be getting Jameson Taillon back from the IL relatively soon, plus Javier Assad has started a minor league rehab assignment after missing the entire year to oblique injuries.  Taillon, Shota Imanaga, and Matthew Boyd have rotation jobs locked up, and so Colin Rea, Cade Horton, and Soroka could be battling for the final three slots once everyone is healthy.  This mix could be shaken up once more by further pitching moves, whether in the form of another starter or a more clear-cut relief option that deepens the pen.

With no mention yet of any money changing hands in the deal, it would appear that the Cubs are covering the approximately $3MM remaining on Soroka’s contract.  RosterResource estimates Chicago’s tax number at around $220.5MM, leaving the team with plenty of space to add further salaries before hitting the $241MM luxury tax threshold.  Upgrading the roster and staying under the tax line would be the best of both worlds for ownership and the front office, yet an argument can obviously be made that exceeding the threshold for a second straight year is a relatively small price to pay to bolster a team battling for a division crown.

In exchange for a rental player, the Nationals will add a pair of prospects ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 13th (Cruz) and 14th (Franklin) best minor leaguers in Chicago’s deep system.  It’s not a bad haul for a rental player, providing Washington with a decent return on its one-year investment in Soroka.

Cruz was a third-round pick for the Cubs in the 2024 draft, and his first pro season has seen the 18-year-old infielder hit .270/.314/.431 over 189 plate appearances for the Cubs’ rookie ball affiliate.  He has spent most of his year at shortstop and some evaluators feel he should be able to stick at the position, though Cruz has also played some second and third base this year.  Pipeline’s scouting report feels center field could be his “Plan B” position, given Cruz’s athleticism and strong throwing arm.  Cruz’s overall hitting ability has some question marks, but he already has plus raw power that could develop as he gets old.

Baseball America had Cruz 17th on their list of Cubs prospects but Franklin wasn’t included at all.  This could speak to some of the holes in Franklin’s hitting approach that even Pipeline’s scouting report acknowledges.  Franklin is okay in all facets of the game without a clear plus tool apart from his throwing arm, which could hint at a future in right field though he has played mostly center field with Triple-A Iowa.

If Cruz is more of a long-term project, Franklin could potentially be making his MLB debut as early as this season, after hitting .265/.393/.427 over 390 PA with Iowa in 2025.  This marked Franklin’s first taste of Triple-A action in a pro career that began in 2021 as a fourth-round draft pick.

Astros Talked With Mets About Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio

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The Astros are keen on adding left-handed hitting to their righty-heavy lineup, and “at least inquired” with the Mets about the availability of Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty, and switch-hitter Ronny Mauricio, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Since the Mets are known to be open to dealing from their infield depth, a trade between the two sides would seem to make sense on paper, though it isn’t known if the discussions gained any traction.

McNeil is in something of a different category than the other two players, as McNeil is an established big league commodity.  In fact, the 33-year-old is again producing above-average offense after a couple of down years, as McNeil is hitting .251/.356/.453 with nine home runs over 265 plate appearances.  Between this steady bat and McNeil’s ability to play both second base and all three outfield positions (with a particular focus on center field this year), it is hard to imagine the Mets parting ways with such a key cog in their lineup.

On the financial side of things, McNeil is controlled through 2027 as per the four-year, $50MM extension he signed with New York prior to the 2023 season.  He is owed the remainder of his $15.75MM salary for 2025, another $15.75MM in 2026, and there is a $2MM buyout on a $15.75MM club option for 2027.  Barring a similar contract heading back to the Mets, a McNeil trade would put the Astros well over the luxury tax threshold, which seemed to be an unofficial spending limit for the club last offseason.  Recent reports indicate that Houston might well consider exceeding the tax line in certain circumstances, but bringing McNeil aboard may not qualify.

Landing Baty or Mauricio is perhaps more of a viable option for the Astros, though New York would also want something significant for either player, given their years of team control and their still-recent status as top-100 prospects.  Baty has hit only .220/.284/.352 over 865 PA in the majors, however, and perhaps has fallen out of favor after once being viewed as the Amazins’ third baseman of the future.  Mauricio has a more respectable .245/.303/.400 slash line from a small sample of 238 career PA, and he is back in action this season after missing the entire 2024 campaign recovering from a torn ACL.

While the two youngsters still have something to prove as big leaguers, the change-of-scenery potential could be attractive to the Astros, as well as Houston’s more immediate near-term needs.  The Astros were thin on left-handed hitting even before the heavy swath of injuries that sent seven position players to the IL — Yordan Alvarez, their most prominent lefty-swinger, has now missed close to three months due to a hand fracture.

Jeremy Pena is expected back at shortstop within the next few days, so Baty or Mauricio could be used at second or third base.  Isaac Paredes and Brendan Rodgers are also on the IL and not expected back soon, so a new face at second base would move Jose Altuve into left field on a more regular basis, thus addressing Houston’s outfield needs.  (GM Dana Brown outlined this possible scenario this past weekend.)

Giants Making Justin Verlander Available In Trade Talks

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As recently as last week, it still seemed like the Giants would be buying at the trade deadline. It wasn’t long ago that they were linked to Isiah Kiner-Falefa (link) and thought to be interested in adding a right-handed hitting outfielder and at least one starting pitcher. Yet, they have now lost six straight, dropping them below .500. This morning, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that the Giants were listening to offers on their relievers, and the team confirmed as much this afternoon when they shipped off Tyler Rogers to the Mets.

So, it now appears Buster Posey’s club will be selling over the next 21 hours, with legendary starting pitcher Justin Verlander the latest name on the block. Both Morosi and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman have noted that Verlander is available in trades. The 42-year-old has full no-trade rights, but it stands to reason that he would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to join a contender for the stretch run. The bigger question to ask is if the Giants would be willing to eat any of his approximately $5MM in remaining salary to make his contract more palatable for potential suitors.

Verlander is no longer an ace. He probably wouldn’t even make the postseason rotation for whichever contender might trade for him. Still, with a 4.53 ERA and a 4.58 SIERA in 18 starts this year, he would make a fine no. 5 starter for plenty of teams, with the upside to offer a little bit more. And while the value of so-called “veteran leadership” is difficult to quantify, Verlander’s extensive postseason resume and mentorship capabilities can only increase his appeal. The nine-time All-Star, three-time Cy Young winner, and two-time World Series champion has 3505 regular season innings and another 226 postseason innings under his belt. He has played in 20 MLB seasons, and his teams have made the playoffs in 12 of those years.

While neither Morosi’s nor Heyman’s reports linked Verlander to any specific teams, the Tigers’ recent acquisition of Chris Paddack demonstrates that teams are indeed looking for back-end starters this time of year. Almost every team has innings to fill, and it’s not hard to see why a club might be interested in adding a future Hall of Famer to fill those frames.

Phillies No Longer Pursuing Relief Pitching, Focused On Offense

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The Phillies pulled off their big late-inning acquisition, acquiring Jhoan Duran from Minnesota for well-regarded prospects Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the beat that the Phils will not make any other bullpen moves before tomorrow’s deadline (relayed by Matt Gelb of The Athletic and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). They’re continuing to search for a bat, most likely in the outfield. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds that they’re seeking a right-handed hitter in particular.

Dombrowski unsurprisingly declared that Duran will take over as Philly’s closer. They’d had a committee approach to the ninth inning in recent weeks. Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering have been their preferred options since Jordan Romano pitched his way out of the early-season closing role. Strahm and Kerkering fit better in setup roles. The Phils will also recall David Robertson within the next couple weeks to work in leverage spots.

Adding an elite arm at the back of the bullpen has been Philadelphia’s priority for weeks. With that accomplished, they can turn their attention to the bottom part of the lineup. Left field is the obvious area to address. The Max Kepler signing has been a bust. Nick Castellanos isn’t performing well in the opposite corner. Second baseman Bryson Stott has also been in a rut offensively, but that’s a more difficult position to address given the scarcity of plus hitters at that position. The Phillies should have more possibilities in the corner outfield, potentially with a goal of flipping Kepler elsewhere in a second trade.

The Phils have been tied to Luis Robert Jr., who at least hits left-handed pitching and has a higher ceiling than Kepler provides. They’ve been linked to Cleveland left fielder Steven Kwan, but that’d require surrendering multiple top prospects and seems less likely after the Phils parted with significant young talent for Duran. Ramón Laureano, Davis Schneider and Dane Myers are righty-hitting outfielders who could be available. If the Phillies don’t land a notable acquisition, they’d likely give a look to former first-round pick Justin Crawford. The 21-year-old is hitting .326/.409/.428 with 31 stolen bases in 82 Triple-A games.

Phillies Acquire Jhoan Duran

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The Phillies have acquired closer Jhoan Duran from the Twins in exchange for catching prospect Eduardo Tait and right-handed pitcher Mick Abel. Both teams have officially announced the deal.

Duran was one of the biggest names on this summer’s trade market. He came in at no. 34 on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 trade candidates, but he surely would have ranked higher if it seemed more likely that he’d be dealt. The flamethrowing right-hander is one of the undisputed best closers in the game, with a career 2.47 ERA, 2.48 SIERA, and 74 saves in 83 chances over the past four seasons. Dating back to his rookie season in 2022, he has thrown 233 2/3 innings in 223 games, racking up 292 strikeouts (seventh-most among relievers) with an elite 63.2% groundball rate. His 9.10 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranks third in that same span, trailing only Devin Williams and Félix Bautista. The 1,284 pitches he’s thrown at or above 100 miles an hour (per Statcast) are easily the most in the majors; Mason Miller ranks second with 819. Only 27 years old and arguably pitching better than ever – he’s on pace for career-highs in both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference versions of WAR – Duran remains under team control via arbitration through the 2027 campaign.

The possibility of the Twins trading Duran began to seem more and more realistic over the past couple of days, with the 51-57 Twins looking to take advantage of a seller’s market and a bevy of contending teams seeking late-inning bullpen help. It was no secret the Phillies were one such club. A few weeks ago, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported that Duran (and teammate Griffin Jax) would be “prized targets” for Philadelphia, noting that, in contrast to past deadlines, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was prioritizing “controllable big leaguers” and, in particular, a controllable “shutdown, late-inning reliever.” Since Gelb’s initial report, several more sources linked the Phillies to Duran, including Nightengale and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, but the most recent reporting indicated that their refusal to part with top prospect Andrew Painter would ultimately prevent them from landing Duran, with both Nightengale and Rosenthal and Gelb suggesting as much. Evidently, the Twins softened their demands, although there is no doubt the Phillies still paid a high price to acquire their new bullpen ace.

Tait is widely considered a top-100 prospect, ranked 50th by Baseball America, 51st by Baseball Prospectus, and 56th by MLB Pipeline. As BA notes, he is their first top-100 prospect to be traded ahead of the deadline since 2023, and the highest ranked since 2022. Whether or not the Twins achieved their reported goal of landing two top-100 prospects in exchange for Duran depends on which lists you’re looking at; Abel is currently no. 92 on MLB Pipeline’s list, but he dropped off BA’s most recent post-draft rankings and fell off BP’s list after 2023. For what it’s worth, neither Tait nor Abel was included on FanGraphs’ latest top 100 update.

Looking beyond the arbitrary “top 100” cutoff, however, what matters is that the Twins received a pair of highly talented young players, of a caliber rarely seen moved in deadline deals. Tait is a bat-first catcher with big power and a strong throwing arm, but the rest of his defensive game needs significant work. Still, the bat has enough potential that he could succeed in the majors (presumably at first base or DH) even if he doesn’t stick behind the plate. He lit up the competition in the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League in his first two professional seasons, but he hasn’t looked quite as powerful in Single-A and High-A this year. That said, he’s only 18 years old, which is young for his level, and scouting reports matter far more than his numbers right now. Dan Hayes of The Athletic notes that the Twins have “very good” internal grades on Tait.

Abel might not have quite as much upside as he once did, but he has looked much better this year than he did in 2023 or ’24. He has a 2.31 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 13 Triple-A starts, both his best numbers at any level in any year of his professional career. While he looked overmatched at times in his first six MLB starts for the Phillies, his mediocre overall numbers are the combination of three strong starts and three disappointing outings. He’s not there quite yet, but he showed signs that he could soon become a capable big league starting pitcher. Whether that’s a mid-rotation or back-end starter is now up to the Twins, but he has good raw stuff and a deep arsenal for their development and coaching staffs to work with.

Heading into play today, the Phillies ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.33 bullpen ERA and 15th with a 3.82 bullpen SIERA. Their strong starting rotation has helped to limit the bullpen’s workload (their bullpen ranks last in innings pitched), but still, it’s not hard to understand why Dombrowski was looking for a significant upgrade. Philadelphia’s longest tenured reliever, hard-throwing lefty José Alvarado, will be out until mid-August serving a PED suspension, and he won’t be eligible to pitch in the playoffs. Jordan Romano, the team’s primary bullpen acquisition of the offseason, has struggled to a 6.81 ERA. No one knows what to expect from David Robertson, who did not sign with a team until earlier this month. He remained one of the best relievers in baseball at age 39 in 2024, but he essentially started his spring training last week. Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm have provided manager Rob Thomson with a couple of reliable back-end options, but as the Phillies battle with the Mets for the NL East crown and look to contend for a World Series, it’s clear to see why they identified Duran as a major difference-maker.

As for the Twins, there is now no question they are in full sell mode, having dealt Duran and Chris Paddack, whom they sent to the Tigers on Monday. This makes it seem all the more likely that they will soon trade Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe, all of whom are set to hit free agency at the end of the season. However, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes that Minnesota is now far more likely to hold on to Jax, their other controllable relief ace. Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune echoed Feinsand’s statement, writing that the Twins have not “ruled out” trading Jax, but their asking price could now be astronomical – perhaps too high for anyone to meet.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report that the two sides were closing in on a trade, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the Twins would receive Tait and Abel in exchange for Duran. ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to confirm the agreement.

Photo in article courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images.

Rangers Place Jacob Webb On 15-Day IL, Promote Luis Curvelo

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The Rangers placed right-hander Jacob Webb on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to July 29) due to back spasms.  Righty Luis Curvelo was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move, as initially reported earlier today by Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extra Base.  Curvelo was already on the 40-man roster, so no additional roster move was necessary.

Signed to a one-year, $1.25MM free agent deal last winter, Webb has provided steady work out of the Texas bullpen this year, with a 3.75 ERA over 48 innings.  His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest of his six MLB seasons, and a .232 BABIP has helped Webb outperform his 4.15 SIERA.  Still, there isn’t a big gap between Webb’s real-world numbers and his expected numbers, as he has done an outstanding job of inducing soft contact.  The righty’s seven percent walk rate is also a personal best.

Losing Webb for at least the next two weeks won’t help a Rangers team that is fighting for a playoff berth, especially since Chris Martin was also put on the IL due to a calf strain last week.  The Texas relief corps has been very impressive overall this year, but the Rangers are known to be looking for high-leverage relievers to try and bring a steady closer into the mix before tomorrow’s trade deadline.

Curvelo’s first in-game appearance will mark the 24-year-old’s big league debut.  Despite his young age, Curvelo is in his seventh season of pro ball, as he started as a 17-year-old in the Mariners’ system in 2017.  He joined the Rangers this past winter on a Major League contract, speaking to the amount of interest Curvelo generated despite his lack of MLB experience.

Curvelo made his Triple-A debut this season and has a 3.26 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate, and 10.6% walk rate over 38 2/3 innings with Round Rock.  These aren’t the kind of special numbers that it would take to get a relief-only pitcher onto a team’s top prospects list, yet Curvelo has looked good enough against Triple-A batters that he’ll now get his first chance to show his wares at the MLB level.  It remains to be seen if Curvelo will just get a cup of coffee in the majors or if he’ll get a longer look if he pitches well, considering that the Rangers’ bullpen situation could be quite different after tomorrow.

Mets Acquire Ryan Helsley

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The Mets continue to load up in the late innings. New York announced the acquisition of Ryan Helsley from the Cardinals for infield prospect Jesus Baez and minor league pitchers Nate Dohm and Frank Elissalt. It’s the third relief pickup of the week for the Mets, who had already acquired hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto from Baltimore and paid a hefty price to get submariner Tyler Rogers from the Giants. They had an opening on the 40-man roster, so there was no corresponding move.

Helsley adds another power arm to the late innings. His fastball sits above 99 MPH on average. Opponents have nevertheless had a field day against the heater this season, batting .406 and slugging .522. They’ve had no success against Helsley’s upper 80s slider, which he turns to as often as he goes to the fastball. The end result is an even 3.00 earned run average across 36 innings. The righty has fanned an above-average 26.1% of batters faced behind a massive 16.1% swinging strike rate.

This is Helsley’s fourth consecutive season of strong production. He first assumed the Cardinals’ closing role in 2022 and has successfully nailed down 103 saves out of 121 tries over the past three-plus years. Helsley posted a 2.45 ERA or better in each season from 2021-23. He began this season a little slowly, allowing 3.60 earned runs per nine with eight walks and 10 strikeouts through the end of April. He has reeled off a 2.77 ERA with plus strikeout (27.4%) and walk (5.3%) percentages going back to May 1.

After a few seasons in the ninth inning, Helsley will move to a setup role in Queens. He’ll likely be Carlos Mendoza’s top leverage arm in the bridge to Edwin Díaz. Rogers may not be far behind him in the pecking order. Helsley and Rogers are each excellent relievers but couldn’t be more different stylistically. Mendoza will have a few different looks in what now seems to be one of the deepest bullpens in the game. Reed Garrett, Ryne Stanek and Soto all bring plus velocity in the middle relief group.

The 31-year-old Helsley is playing on an $8.2MM salary for his final season of arbitration. The Mets will pick up the remaining $2.65MM. They’re taxed at a 110% rate on all expenditures, so they’ll pay nearly $3MM in taxes on top of the money owed to Helsley. It’s an approximate $5.6MM investment. Helsley will be a free agent at season’s end. That’s also true of Stanek, Rogers, Soto and probably Díaz (who can opt out of the remaining two years and $37MM on his contract). New York holds a club option on southpaw Brooks Raley. There’ll be a lot of turnover next season, but it’s a high-octane group for the stretch run.

The Mets are loading up at the same time as the Phillies are dealing two highly-regarded prospects for Minnesota’s star closer, Jhoan Duran. Philadelphia is percentage points above New York in what should be a fantastic NL East race. The Mets have also been linked to center field upgrades — Luis Robert Jr., most prominently — and could turn their attention to the lineup over the final 22 hours before the deadline.

On the other end, the Cardinals are parting with a player who has spent a decade in the organization. Helsley was a fifth-round pick in 2015 and has spent parts of seven seasons with the big league club. The Cardinals curiously opted not to trade him last offseason despite cutting payroll and viewing 2025 primarily as an evaluation year for their young players. St. Louis hung around the playoff mix for a while, but an 8-15 record in July has sealed their fate as deadline sellers.

Helsley acknowledged last week that a trade was coming. While he’d spoken a few times about wanting to sign an extension with St. Louis, the team never seemed to reciprocate the interest. They weren’t especially likely to make him a qualifying offer that should land north of $22MM. (Teams cannot make a QO to players acquired midseason, so the trade ensures that Helsley will hit free agency unencumbered.) The Cards have dropped close to .500 and sit five games back in the Wild Card picture, making a trade inevitable.

In all likelihood, they’re getting a slightly lesser return than they would have received had they shopped Helsley over the winter. Baez, a 20-year-old infielder, is the headliner. He placed in the back half of the Mets’ top 10 prospects at both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs slotted him 15th in his organizational writeup last June.

The righty-hitting Baez impresses evaluators with his bat speed and contact skills. That comes with a tendency to expand the strike zone that alarms some scouts, though, and Baez is not expected to have the requisite athleticism to stick at shortstop. He’s a potential regular at third base who remains at least a couple years from big league readiness. Baez is playing in a pitcher-friendly setting in High-A, batting .242/.332/.390 with 10 home runs and a lower than average 16.3% strikeout rate.

Dohm, a 6’4″ right-hander, was New York’s third-round pick last summer. The Mississippi State product has combined for a 2.87 ERA with a near-29% strikeout rate in 18 starts in the low minors. He ranked 14th in the system at MLB Pipeline but was further down at BA (25th) and FanGraphs (42nd). Dohm battled forearm injuries in college and faces some durability questions. He leans most heavily on a potential plus fastball while mixing in a slider and curveball. There’s a decent chance he’ll wind up in relief, but the Cards will presumably continue developing him as a starter.

Ellisalt was New York’s 19th-round pick last summer. FanGraphs ranked him 43rd in the system, writing that his fastball/slider combination gives him a shot to be a middle reliever if his command becomes passable. He’s a 23-year-old reliever with a 3.04 ERA and strong 29% strikeout rate against younger competition between two A-ball levels.

This’ll be the first of multiple subtractions from the St. Louis bullpen. Impending free agents Phil Maton and Steven Matz should both be moved. Lefty JoJo Romero has an additional season of arbitration control but could be dealt as well. None of those players will command as strong a return as Helsley did, but the Cards could add a few more mid-tier prospects to the farm system by tomorrow evening.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Mets were closing in on a deal for Helsley. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com confirmed the deal was in place and was first with Baez as the headliner of a three-player package. Heyman was first on Ellisalt and Dohm. Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.

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