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MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Mark P

  • Earlier edition of The Weekend Chat this time, but hopefully with no shortage of questions and hot takes filing in from our readers.  Let’s see what’s up….

Luca

  • Are the Rays still in on Ketel Marte? Anyone else there targeting?

Mark P

  • In all likelihood, the Rays are targeting players much less expensive than Marte.  He’d be a huge help for their lineup, of course, but with a remaining price tag that wouldn’t seem to fit Tampa’s budget.

    Hindsight being 50-50, if the Rays had exercised Fairbanks’ option, I wonder if he might’ve been part of a hypothetical Marte trade package — both as salary offset, and because Arizona needs ninth-inning help

Kwallington

  • Has the Cardinals trade stuff stalled? It’s been a while since any updates.

Mark P

  • Not surprising that things slowed down over the holidays.  The Cards have already moved Gray and Contreras, leaving Arenado as the last big contract remaining, and Donovan/JoJo/maybe Gorman or Nootbaar as less-expensive but more sought-after trade chips.
  • The Cardinals certainly aren’t done with their swaps yet, and it feels like Donovan, Romero, and Arenado will all be elsewhere by Opening Day

Cj james

  • The Braves should worry about the bullpen more than the starters. Do you agree?

Mark P

  • Probably, though Suarez and the re-signed Iglesias solve a couple of big question marks.

Steve

  • Who is more likely to be in a different uniform next year, Duran or Casas?

Mark P

  • Casas

Read more

Mariners Involved In Kazuma Okamoto’s Market

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Kazuma Okamoto’s posting window closes at 4pm CT on Sunday, and there isn’t yet any sense where the Japanese star might sign even as his deadline nears.  Such teams as the Cubs, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Pirates, and Padres have reportedly shown some interest in Okamoto’s services, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds the Mariners to this list of clubs “connected to” the chase for the 29-year-old.

Signing Okamoto would represent an interesting pivot for Seattle, as the Mariners have been focusing more on second base as the target spot for an infield upgrade.  The M’s want to see what they have in such third base candidates as top prospect Colt Emerson, or other youngsters like Cole Young and Ben Williamson.

Former Mariner Eugenio Suarez has been pretty much the only third baseman on Seattle’s radar, and even if Suarez did re-sign with the team, it seems likely that Suarez would get a healthy dose of usage as designated hitter rather than an everyday assignment at the hot corner.  Trade target Brendan Donovan also has some experience as a third baseman, but Donovan’s versatility makes him a candidate to be used all over the diamond, and second base would probably be his most frequent position if the M’s did manage to pry him away from the Cardinals.

While Okamoto has spent a lot of his career at the hot corner, however, he is more of a corner infielder than a true third baseman.  During his time with the Yomiuri Giants, Okamoto logged 662 games played at third base and 478 games at first base.  He also made 77 appearances in the outfield, so a Major League team might be open to using Okamoto as an occasional left fielder, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon recently noted.

Seattle has Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena lined up for everyday work at first base and left field, respectively, but Okamoto could get some work at those positions if Naylor or Arozarena are receiving a DH day or a full off-day.  Arozarena is also a free agent after the 2026 season, so any playing time for Okamoto in left field could be viewed as a potential audition to see if he could be a longer-term fit going forward.

If Okamoto can deliver anything close to his NPB numbers, he would be a terrific addition to the Mariners’ (or any team’s) lineup.  Okamoto has a .277/.361/.521 slash line and 248 homers over 4494 plate appearances with the Giants, and his outstanding resume includes six NPB All-Star nods, two NPB Golden Gloves, and a gold medal as a member of Japan’s winning team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Okamoto 19th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and predicted a four-year, $64MM contract.  Given how Tatsuya Imai and Munetaka Murakami both had to settle for contracts far below ours and others’ projections, it certainly seems possible that Okamoto might also sign for a lower price tag than expected.  This opens the door for the Mariners or any number of other suitors to get involved.

A “bet on yourself” type of short-term contract with opt-out clauses could appeal to the Mariners, with some extra financial outlay possibly being preferable to meeting a high demand for a player like Donovan or Ketel Marte.  Seattle would seemingly have particular appeal to Okamoto, given how the M’s seem poised to contend again in 2026, and the Mariners’ long history of welcoming Japanese players.

Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?

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The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.

Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.

The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.

Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.

Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.

As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.

That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.

Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)

Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.

Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.

McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.

Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”

Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)

There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).

De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.

Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.

The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.

That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.

The Rockies’ Outfield Trade Possibilities

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The Rockies have yet to make any significant moves since Paul DePodesta assumed control of baseball operations two months ago. They’re one of two teams that has yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal. Unlike the Red Sox (the other team for which that’s the case), Colorado hasn’t done much via trade either. Their only moves on the trade front were to acquire lefty reliever Brennan Bernardino from Boston and to deal former first-round pick Ryan Rolison away for cash.

A quiet offseason was always to be expected for a new executive working with one of the worst rosters in MLB history. The Rox aren’t going to invest much in the 2026 team. They don’t have many productive veterans to dangle on the trade market. The exception might be in the outfield, as DePodesta hinted that he could subtract from that area to try to add controllable pitching.

Let’s look at the possibilities.

Brenton Doyle

Doyle probably has the highest ceiling of Colorado’s outfielders. He may also be the least likely to move. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last month that the Rox were reluctant to sell low on the 27-year-old center fielder. Doyle is under arbitration control for four seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.2MM salary.

A stellar defensive player, Doyle has been a target for teams looking for help in a thin center fielder market. The question is whether he’s capable of providing anything at the plate. Doyle looked to have taken a step forward in 2024. He hit 23 homers while cutting his strikeout rate nearly 10 percentage points from his 35% mark as a rookie. The bat dramatically regressed last year, as he stumbled to a .233/.274/.376 line with 15 homers. He kept his strikeout rate around 25% but hit more ground balls and made less of a power impact than he had the previous year.

Mickey Moniak

Moniak is coming off his best year at the plate. Signed to a $1.25MM contract after being released by the Angels in Spring Training, the lefty hitter popped a career-high 24 homers for Colorado. He batted .270/.306/.518 across 461 trips to the dish. Moniak made hard contact (a 95 MPH+ exit velocity) on 45% of his balls in play, easily the best mark of his six MLB seasons.

The surface numbers would seem to make the former first overall pick a strong trade chip for a rebuilding team. The underlying splits aren’t so flattering. Moniak did the vast majority of his damage at Coors Field, where he hit .303/.348/.598 with 15 longballs. His .230/.255/.425 slash away from Denver is a lot less encouraging. Moniak’s rate stats are inflated by his usage, as the Rox shielded him to 60 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

There was also a dramatic dip in Moniak’s defensive grades. He had graded as a solid, albeit not exceptional, defender who could handle all three outfield spots with the Angels. His numbers in Colorado were well below average no matter where he played. Moniak remains a plus runner with an average arm, so the tools are there to be a competent defender, but it’s another question for interested clubs.

Moniak has between four and five years of service time. He’s controllable through 2027 and projected for a $4.2MM arbitration salary.

Tyler Freeman

Colorado landed Freeman in last offseason’s Nolan Jones trade with the Guardians. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each graded him around a win below replacement level in his first year in Colorado. However, he showed more or less the same profile he had in Cleveland that made him a trade target for the Rox a year ago.

Freeman hit .281/.354/.361 while striking out in fewer than 12% of his 428 plate appearances. He was easily the team’s most consistent on-base threat. The 26-year-old has zero power but he puts the ball in play and has plus speed. As was the case with Moniak, Freeman’s WAR was depressed by dreadful defensive metrics that don’t fully align with his athleticism and arm strength.

A team that views the defensive grades as a one-year blip could still be in on Freeman as a utility piece for whom they’re willing to swap a depth arm. He’s controllable for three seasons with a $1.8MM arbitration projection and has a minor league option remaining.

Jordan Beck

A supplemental first-round pick in 2022, Beck got his first look at MLB pitching two years later. He had a rough go as a rookie, striking out at a 35% clip while hitting .188 over his first 55 games. His sophomore season was more promising. Beck spent a couple weeks in Triple-A in April but was otherwise on the MLB roster for the entire season. He worked as Colorado’s primary left fielder and put up decent counting stats. Beck hit 16 home runs, 27 doubles, and five triples while stealing 19 bases.

Beck’s .258/.317/.416 batting line was worse than league average after accounting for Coors Field. He whiffed on nearly 30% of his swings and struggled down the stretch, hitting .250/.316/.377 with a 32% strikeout rate after the All-Star Break. Beck’s physical tools are intriguing. He has above-average bat speed, runs well, and has a strong arm. The approach and pure hitting ability have been questions dating back to his college days, though, and the Rockies are probably better holding onto him to see if he makes any strides at age 25.

Yanquiel Fernández/Zac Veen

Veen and Fernández are left-handed hitting corner outfielders who once ranked among the top offensive prospects in the Colorado system. Both players hit well in the low minors but have seemingly plateaued against upper level pitching. Neither has any kind of MLB track record. Veen has only played in 12 big league games. Fernández hit .225/.265/.348 over 147 plate appearances as a rookie.

Both players have options remaining. They’re probably ticketed for Triple-A Albuquerque as things stand. They’re each young enough to be change of scenery candidates if Colorado’s new regime isn’t as bullish on them as the previous front office had been. That’s theoretically also true of prospect Sterlin Thompson, the only other outfielder on the 40-man roster. Thompson seems likelier to get a chance to play his way into Warren Schaeffer’s outfield next season on the heels of a .296/.392/.519 showing in Albuquerque.

Which Team Will Sign Kazuma Okamoto?

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There are less than 48 hours until the posting window closes for NPB slugger Kazuma Okamoto. His first MLB contract needs to be finalized by Sunday at 4:00 pm Central. There’s a good chance Okamoto agrees to terms by tomorrow. Tatsuya Imai agreed to a three-year deal with the Astros yesterday to leave a day for a standard physical before his own signing deadline this afternoon.

The right-handed hitting Okamoto is one of the more interesting mid-tier free agent bats. He’s a career .277/.361/.521 hitter over parts of 11 seasons at Japan’s highest level. Okamoto was limited to 69 games last year by an elbow injury. That kept his counting stats down, yet his .327/.416/.598 slash line was the best rate production of his career. He has six 30-homer seasons on his résumé and walked as often as he struck out last year.

Okamoto is headed into his age-30 season. It’s unlikely that he’ll command a long-term deal, especially after younger Japanese stars Imai and Munetaka Murakami found cold enough markets to take short contracts. He should land with a club that views him as a potential middle-of-the-order bat for the next few seasons. While Okamoto doesn’t have the eye-popping power that Murakami brings to the table, he should have a higher floor based on his superior bat-to-ball skills. Okamoto made contact on 80.4% of his swings last year; Murakami’s contact rate has been below 64% in consecutive seasons.

Both players are corner bats. Murakami is expected to be a first baseman for the White Sox. Okamoto’s position probably depends on his landing spot. One scout with whom MLBTR spoke at the beginning of the offseason opined that he could play a serviceable but unspectacular third base. Okamoto made 52 appearances at the hot corner and played 27 games at first base for the Yomiuri Giants last season. He was primarily a first baseman the year before that, making 130 appearances there against 39 outings at third.

Okamoto was a full-time infielder last year. He has 164 career appearances on the outfield grass, though, including 15 two seasons ago. Will Sammon of The Athletic floated the possibility of an MLB team giving Okamoto some work in left field as another way to get his bat in the lineup.

The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Padres, Angels and Cubs have been at least loosely connected to Okamoto during his posting window. San Diego’s and Pittsburgh’s interest has come up most frequently, though it’s unclear how much to take from that. The White Sox weren’t tied to Murakami until very late in the process, while it wasn’t publicly known that the Astros were involved on Imai at all until an agreement was done.

Where will Okamoto end up?

 

Astros Designate Kaleb Ort For Assignment

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The Astros announced they’ve designated reliever Kaleb Ort for assignment. That opened the 40-man roster spot to finalize their three-year free agent deal with Tatsuya Imai.

Ort landed in Houston on a waiver claim from Baltimore early in the 2024 season. He turned in a 2.55 earned run average across 22 games the rest of the way. Ort made a career-high 49 appearances last year but was unable to maintain the numbers he showed in a smaller sample. He allowed 4.89 earned runs per nine across 46 innings.

The righty missed bats at an above-average clip and struck out more than a quarter of opposing hitters. That came alongside a near-14% walk rate, however, well above the 4.3% mark he’d posted in his MLB work a year earlier. Ort also allowed a higher than average home run rate for a third consecutive season. While manager Joe Espada preferred to use him in the middle innings, he was pressed into a few higher-leverage spots when Josh Hader and Bennett Sousa were lost to injury in August. That pushed Bryan Abreu into the closing role and left Ort as one of their more established right-handed setup arms.

It unfortunately didn’t take long before Ort joined his bullpen mates on the injured list. He went down with elbow inflammation at the beginning of September. That knocked him out for the rest of the season. There’s no indication he won’t be ready for Spring Training, but he was already on the roster bubble. Ort is out of minor league options and approaching his 34th birthday.

Houston has Hader, Abreu, Sousa, Steven Okert and Bryan King in the season-opening bullpen, assuming health. Enyel De Los Santos and Nate Pearson are out of options and near-locks to break camp. Pearson signed a $1.35MM free agent deal, while De Los Santos is guaranteed a $1.6MM salary after avoiding arbitration. There wouldn’t have been much flexibility for in-season maneuvering if they also carried Ort. He’ll be traded or placed on waivers within the next five days. Ort has less than three years of MLB service and no prior outright assignments, so the Astros could keep him around as a non-roster invitee if he gets through waivers unclaimed.

Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai

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The Astros officially announced the signing of right-hander Tatsuya Imai to a three-year contract that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. It’s reportedly a $54MM guarantee for the NPB star, who’ll collect a $2MM signing bonus and $16MM salary next year. He’s owed respective $18MM salaries between 2027-28. Imai, a client of the Boras Corporation, would reportedly escalate his 2027 salary by $2MM apiece at reaching 80, 90 and 100 innings next year. His ’28 salary would also climb by $1MM at each of those thresholds, meaning the total value can jump another $9MM.

Meanwhile, the Lions will receive a posting fee based on Imai’s $54MM guarantee. The current system for international postings gives the original club 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of anything over $50MM. That works out to $9.975MM, so the Astros are on the hook for just under $64MM between the contract’s guaranteed money and the posting fee. If Imai opts out next season, Houston will have committed $27.975MM for one year of his services. The Astros would also owe a 15% posting fee to the Lions on any escalators that Imai unlocks if he doesn’t opt out.

Imai was one of the top starters available in free agency and coming off a career-best 1.92 ERA season with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It was reported several days ago that he was meeting with teams in-person in advance of his January 2 signing deadline. The Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Phillies, and Orioles were among the clubs interested in signing him, so the Astros are a bit of a surprise destination.

We at MLBTR ranked Imai No. 7 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract. This deal with Houston comes in at half the length of that projection, with around a third of the guaranteed money. It appeared that Imai had other offers on the table for longer terms but lower AAVs (link via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). The opt-outs in his deal with Houston allow him to try for a bigger contract in future offseasons if he can prove himself in MLB.

Imai is 27 years old (28 in May) and has pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 963 2/3 career NPB innings. He debuted in 2018 at age 20 and made 16 appearances (15 starts), but struggled with a 4.97 ERA. Those early struggles continued from 2019-20. In the pandemic season, Imai had a 6.13 ERA in 61 2/3 innings and walked more batters than he struck out, which resulted in him temporarily being moved to the bullpen. He rebounded in 2021, posting a 3.30 ERA in 158 1/3 innings with an improved strikeout rate, and he has stuck as a starting pitcher ever since.

That kicked off a run of dominance from 2022-25. After posting a 2.41 ERA in nine starts with the Lions in 2022, Imai followed up with a 2.30 ERA and a 24.4% strikeout rate in 133 innings in 2023. While he did walk 11.4% of hitters that year, his strikeout and walk numbers improved year over year from 2023-25. This year, he struck out 27.8% of hitters (highest among qualified NPB starters) and walked just 7.0%. His 20.7% K-BB rate was third-best in that league. Imai also did very well at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just six home runs all season (0.33 HR/9) and inducing groundballs 48.3% of the time. Overall, he enters the majors with a higher ceiling and much-improved control compared to his early career.

In terms of stuff, Imai profiles as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 99 mph, and he also throws a slider, splitter, and changeup. His excellent performance from 2022-25 made him an attractive target in free agency, although some evaluators were concerned about his secondary stuff and past struggles with control. It seemed that industry opinion was mixed on whether he could succeed as a big-league starter, which resulted in the lower-than-expected guarantee.

At the time of his posting, a $150MM deal seemed like a real possibility. These days, teams value youth and upside and are willing to pay a premium to get it. Recent offseasons have seen players like Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sign for over a decade and at least $500MM in guaranteed money. Among Asian players, right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee came to the majors after their age-24 seasons and earned $100M+ deals. Imai is several years older than Yamamoto was when he signed and has a shorter track record as a front-of-the-rotation arm. While he was never going to match Yamamoto’s deal, Imai’s year-over-year improvement and relative youth were enough for the Astros to want him in their rotation.

Houston’s interest was not widely known, though it makes sense that they wanted another starting pitcher. Longtime ace Framber Valdez is currently a free agent. The team has had some discussions with Valdez’s camp, though the expectation is that he will sign elsewhere on a pricier contract. Hunter Brown was phenomenal in 2025, totaling 185 1/3 innings with a 2.43 ERA. That figure was third-best among qualified starters, trailing only Cy Young winners Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. He also posted an 85th-percentile strikeout rate and a 77th-percentile groundball rate. Altogether, he was worth 4.6 fWAR and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. He’ll return as the staff ace in 2026.

Behind Brown, the rotation looks shaky. Cristian Javier currently projects as the No. 2 starter. He owns a 3.66 ERA in 538 career innings, but he pitched just 71 2/3 innings from 2024-25 due to Tommy John surgery. In just 37 innings this year, Javier had a 4.62 ERA with a 21.7% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate. He is under contract through 2027. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. has had his own injury troubles, pitching just 103 innings in the past four years and missing 2023-24 entirely. Even if he performs well in 2026, the team will monitor his workload carefully. The recently-acquired Mike Burrows will play some role. He had a 3.94 ERA in 96 innings this year with an impressive 16.4% K-BB rate, though his overall track record is fairly minimal.

The addition of Imai gives the Astros a durable No. 2 or 3 starter at an affordable rate. It remains to be seen how his strikeout and groundball potential will translate against major-league hitting, though the club is surely hoping he can maintain his performance from Japan. The signing brings the Astros’ projected payroll to $242MM, according to RosterResource. The club was a second-time luxury tax payor this year and is hoping to avoid paying it for a third time. The first luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244MM, so the club will likely need to shed payroll if it wants to add to other areas of the roster.

With Imai now off the board, any clubs in need of a starter will need to look elsewhere. Dylan Cease was the top free agent pitcher entering the offseason and has since signed with the Blue Jays. Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt, and Lucas Giolito are still available in free agency. Valdez and Suarez are front-of-the-rotation options, while Gallen, Bassitt and Giolito are cheaper, mid-rotation arms.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Astros and Imai had agreed to a deal. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first on the three-year term with opt-outs after the first two seasons. Heyman reported the $54MM guarantee and $9MM in escalators at 80-100 innings, while Ronald Blum of The Associated Press was first on the signing bonus and specific escalator breakdown.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon, hope you've all had a good holiday season!
  • Lots in the queue today, let's get rolling

Natitude Dude

  • Is M Gore getting dealt this off-season? If so, what kind of return can be expected after the Baz deal?

Anthony Franco

  • I still think he'll get moved this offseason. Would expect a better headliner than Tampa Bay got in the Baz trade and a slightly stronger package overall. Think Gore's more valuable despite Baz have the extra year of arbitration control

KerryFam4

  • We’ve now had two Japanese players sign short term deals with opt-outs at lower than expected rates.  Do you think that will impact the remaining unsigned Japanese player(s)?  Should we read anything from that into the markets for Tucker, Bichette, Bregman, Valdez, etc?

Anthony Franco

  • Not reading a whole lot into it. Seems more that MLB teams didn't think Murakami or Imai are particularly good
  • If all the top free agents are still unsigned two or three weeks from now, I'd come more around to the idea that of shorter-term contracts with outs for them

gavin

  • should the padres trade pivetta to the cubs/mets/yankees for prospects and sign basset or giolito?

Anthony Franco

  • I think it's too cute. Pivetta's just much better than those guys and the rotation is pretty weak beyond the top three. I understand the concern about potentially losing Pivetta and King next offseason, but the Padres are almost always operating in some kind of chaos like that because they overpaid Bogaerts, Darvish and Cronenworth

Guest

  • In your opinion, which outlet is the best for prospect coverage? Is there one you guys typically use?

Anthony Franco

  • Baseball America's the gold standard for me, but there's obviously a lot of good work out there and value in getting different outlets' opinions on players. We'll reference BA, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel's work at ESPN, Keith Law at The Athletic and MLB Pipeline

Arise, Sir Loin of Beef

  • Are there any upper tier OFs available in a trade this year?

Anthony Franco

  • It's not great, especially if Boston holds everybody. Donovan could kind of fit that description even though he's more impactful at second base and/or bouncing around the infield. We've seen that kind of ceiling from Robert and Nootbaar before but not recently
  • I think it's more likely to come available at the deadline. Red Sox are pretty well positioned on the pitching staff now but injuries could change that by the summer. If Cleveland struggles, Kwan should go in July. Maybe Minnesota reevaluates on Buxton and their top starters at that point if their half-in hope of competing this year blows up

A's or Marlins?

  • Between the A's and Marlins, which team do you believe is in a stronger position to compete for a wild card spot this season?

Anthony Franco

  • I'd take Miami's roster right now but that probably flips if the A's add a mid-rotation caliber starter. Still think they're both long shots but more realistic dark horses than they've been entering any of the past couple seasons

Confused

  • Why is Brendan Donovan so highly-sought after? Minimal power and he doesn’t have the .300 batting average to offset that?

Anthony Franco

  • Almost no one hits .300 anymore. There were seven qualified hitters who have done that in each of the past two seasons. Donovan's a reliable bet to hit .280 with an OBP above .350. Not huge power but enough for double-digit homers and 30 doubles
  • It's really tough to find players who do that while playing up the middle. The league average second baseman last year hit .243/.310/.371

Chris

  • Who is one player you think could possibly be traded this offseason who has not been speculated in trade discussions?

Anthony Franco

  • Still think the Giants should trade Robbie Ray to clear $25M next year for a move at second base or in right field

Giacomo Puccini

  • Who’s the best active player not to win an MVP?

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Mets Have Checked In On Kyle Tucker

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According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Mets have “checked in” on free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker. The four-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger winner is MLBTR’s top free agent.

Much speculation has linked Tucker to the Mets this offseason, and it isn’t difficult to see why. According to RosterResource, Steve Cohen’s club ran payrolls of $346MM, $336MM, and $340MM in 2023, ’24, and ’25, respectively. Currently, their projected payroll for 2026 sits at just $294MM. That means president of baseball operations David Stearns should have at least $40 million left to spend. He’s already made some additions, namely, signing Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams, and Luke Weaver, and trading for Marcus Semien. However, considering all the players the Mets have lost or dealt away, including Pete Alonso, Edwin Díaz, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil, and considering how they missed the playoffs in such heartbreaking fashion last September, Stearns has more work to do. Surely, he didn’t sign Juan Soto to a record-smashing contract last season just to sit on his hands a year later.

If Stearns wants to make a big splash, there’s no better way to do so than by signing the top free agent on the market. The Mets are reportedly hesitant to sign a starting pitcher to a long-term contract this winter. What’s more, Heyman notes that Tucker’s presumably high asking price is why Cody Bellinger remains their preferred outfield target. That said, it would be foolish to count the Mets of all teams out of the Tucker sweepstakes for financial reasons. They could give him the 11-year, $400MM contract MLBTR predicted at the beginning of the offseason ($36.4MM AAV), and their payroll would still be lower than it’s been in any of the past three seasons.

What’s more, the Mets have a clear opening for Tucker in their lineup after parting with Nimmo. Right now, RosterResource has Carson Benge penciled in as New York’s starting left fielder. Benge is a consensus top-100 prospect, and it’s apparent how highly the Mets value him. He is thought to be all but untouchable in trade talks this winter, and Stearns has previously suggested he’ll have an opportunity to make the big league roster out of spring training. Yet, Benge is only 22 and completely unproven at the MLB level. It’s hard to think that a team with World Series aspirations would let him get in the way of its signing a proven star like Tucker – especially since the Mets have already been connected to Bellinger. To that point, the Mets are thought to prefer to add a right-handed bat to their lineup, but their interest in the lefty-batting Bellinger suggests handedness won’t be a dealbreaker. Benge, for what it’s worth, also bats from the left-hand side. Besides, Tucker’s career numbers against southpaw pitching (133 wRC+, .842 OPS) are almost as impressive as his numbers with the platoon advantage (141 wRC+, .877 OPS). There’s no good reason why his left-handedness should get in the way of a deal.

Back in November, MLBTR’s Steve Adams listed the Mets as a “likely suitor” for Tucker’s services. Two weeks ago, nearly 20,000 MLBTR readers voted on where they thought Tucker would sign, and the Mets received the third-most support (15.23%), just ahead of the Yankees (10.09%) and trailing only the Blue Jays (40.22%) and Dodgers (15.55%). So, it didn’t come as any surprise on Thursday afternoon when Heyman confirmed that the Mets have indeed expressed at least some degree of interest. They join the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles as teams with reported interest in the star outfielder, although Baltimore was linked to him before signing Alonso. Other teams that could be good fits include the Dodgers and Giants; Heyman notes that “all big-market teams” have checked in on Tucker, although the Yankees and Mets are the only ones he mentions by name.

Twins Acquire Eric Wagaman, DFA Ryan Fitzgerald

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The Twins have acquired first baseman Eric Wagaman from the Marlins in exchange for minor league pitcher Kade Bragg, as confirmed by both teams this afternoon. Wagaman was designated for assignment earlier this week. To make room for Wagaman on their 40-man roster, the Twins DFA’d infielder Ryan Fitzgerald.

Wagaman, 28, spent several years in the Yankees’ minor league system before he was taken by the Angels in the minor league portion of the 2023 Rule 5 draft. He debuted for L.A. the following September, but he didn’t hit well enough to stave off a DFA at the end of the season. After electing free agency, he signed with the Marlins, and in 2025, he played his first full campaign in the bigs. Over 140 games, he slashed .250/.296/.378 for a .674 OPS and an 85 wRC+. He hit nine home runs, stole four bases on five attempts, and grounded into 11 double plays. On defense, Wagaman mostly played first base, though he also appeared in a handful of games in the corner outfield spots and stepped in at third base on a few occasions. Considering his well-below-average offense at a position where teams typically look for well-above-average offense, it was hardly surprising to see Wagaman DFA’d when the Marlins needed to make room on the roster for trade acquisition Esteury Ruiz. Evidently, the Twins must see a little more to like in his bat.

Bragg, 24, signed with the Twins in 2023 after they selected him in the 17th round of the draft. He made his professional debut in 2024 but landed on the injured list in late April and missed the rest of the season. Healthy again in 2025, the left-hander impressed in his first full season, rising from Single-A to High-A to Double-A. All told, he pitched to a 2.94 ERA and 3.73 FIP in 67 1/3 innings of relief, striking out 82 and giving up just six home runs. Walks were an issue, and clearly, the Twins don’t value Bragg all that highly. Neither do the prospect evaluators at sources like Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, or FanGraphs; he wasn’t ranked on any of their most recent Twins prospect lists. Still, based on his successful performance in his first full season, the Marlins’ development team has an interesting new project to work on.

Fitzgerald, 31, finally earned his call to the show in 2025. He started his career in independent ball, where he impressed the Red Sox enough to earn a minor league contract in 2018. Five years later, the Royals selected him in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 draft – the same draft that saw Wagaman join the Angels. However, Fitzgerald wasn’t able to make the majors with his new team, and he elected free agency after the 2024 campaign. He then latched on with Minnesota on a minor league contract, and finally, a month before his 31st birthday, he made his MLB debut. While his first stint with the Twins lasted less than a week, he earned another call-up in August following the team’s trade deadline sell-off and stuck around for the rest of the season. Altogether, he hit for an .837 OPS and a 119 wRC+ in 59 games at Triple-A and a .758 OPS and 110 wRC+ in 24 games in the majors. Unfortunately for Fitzgerald, his plus hitting and defensive versatility (he played all four infield positions) weren’t enough to keep him in Minnesota’s plans for 2026. At some point over the next five days, the Twins will either trade him or place him on waivers. If he were to clear waivers, the Twins could send him outright to the minor leagues and keep him in their organization.

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