The collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the Players Association expires December 1st. Many in the industry expect a lockout and some even worry about the potential for lost games in 2027. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Post report that the league has put aside a war chest of about $2 billion, roughly $75MM per team, from a central fund to help weather a potentially lengthy stoppage. The MLBPA has made similar preparations but the report doesn’t provide specifics for that side.
At first blush, it may seem ominous that such measures are being taken, especially when the rhetoric around the negotiations has been contentious. However, the piece from The Post points out that these kinds of steps are standard procedure when a CBA is expiring, both for MLB and the MLBPA.
When the previous CBA expired, the owners immediately locked out the players. That lockout lasted 99 days and was resolved just in time for a full 162-game season to be played in 2022. Another lockout is expected after the upcoming season. That’s both due to tensions seeming high and because MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has spoken positively about how a lockout affects negotiations. In the wake of those comments, then-executive director of the MLBPA Tony Clark said the union expects to be locked out. Clark recently resigned under the shroud of scandal with deputy director Bruce Meyer taking over on an interim basis.
For those pessimistic about a speedy resolution, there are things to point to. The economic imbalances of the game have seemingly grown more extreme. The Dodgers have been consistently in the playoffs for more than a decade and have won the past two titles, while running historically high payrolls. That has led to many fans to call for a salary cap, something many owners want as well. Ownership has historically favored a cap with the union opposed. The ownership side often cites competitive balance as a justification for a cap while the player side will say the owners simply want to control labor costs and increase franchise values.
An optimist could point to other factors. Manfred’s contract runs through January of 2029 and he has said he doesn’t plan to seek another term. He may not want to have a lengthy work stoppage as his parting legacy. He also intends for the league to seek a massive payday from broadcast rights after the 2028 season, when a large number of the current contracts will expire. Baseball’s popularity is currently on the rise but could drop if a large number of games are cancelled, which would hurt the value of the broadcast rights.
Time will tell how it all plays out. For now, both sides are getting prepared, as they always do. The Post says that negotiations are expected to begin once the regular season commences in late March.
Photo courtesy of Susan Tompor, Imagn Images
