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Mets Sign Devin Williams To Three-Year Deal

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December 3: The Mets have officially announced their signing of Williams.

December 1: Another free agent reliever has come off the board. The Mets are reportedly in agreement with Devin Williams on a three-year deal that guarantees the Klutch Sports client $51MM, though the net present value is knocked down by $15MM in deferrals.

Williams receives a $6MM signing bonus that’ll be paid in $2MM installments. He receives $15MM annual salaries, $5MM of which is deferred each season. (Signing bonuses are paid even in the event of a work stoppage, while players would not receive salaries for any games lost to a 2027 lockout.) There’s also reportedly a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

A second-round pick by the Brewers in 2013, Williams took a while to climb through the minor leagues as a starting pitcher. He took off after being moved to the bullpen in 2019, climbing from Double-A to the big leagues by the end of that season. Williams emerged as one of the sport’s best late-game weapons by his first full big league season. He turned in a 0.33 ERA across 27 innings during the shortened 2020 schedule and claimed the National League Rookie and Reliever of the Year Awards.

The righty continued to dominate over the next few seasons, forming a lethal back-end duo with Josh Hader. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns had a front row seat as Milwaukee’s front office leader for most of that tenure. Williams stepped into the ninth inning when Milwaukee sent Hader to San Diego at the ’22 deadline. He reeled off 36 saves in 40 tries with a 1.53 ERA to win his second career Reliever of the Year honors a year later.

Over his first four full seasons, Williams pitched to a 1.75 ERA while striking out 40.5% of opposing hitters. Heading into 2024, there was a decent argument for him as the best reliever in MLB. He hit his first real setback that Spring Training, as testing revealed two stress fractures in his back. He didn’t make his season debut until shortly before the trade deadline. Williams looked every bit as dominant during the regular season, reeling off 21 2/3 frames of three-run ball with 38 strikeouts to finish the year. His season ended in heartbreak fashion, as he surrendered a go-ahead homer to Pete Alonso in the final game of the Wild Card Series.

That wound up being Williams’ final action in a Milwaukee uniform. Before his last year of arbitration, the Brewers flipped him to the Yankees for starter Nestor Cortes and rookie infielder Caleb Durbin. The Yankees felt they were acquiring one of the ten best relievers in the sport. Williams’ results, at least, didn’t come close to those expectations.

The 31-year-old righty had an inconsistent lone season in the Bronx. He was terrible early on, giving up multiple runs in three of his first 10 appearances. Consecutive poor outings at the end of April led the Yankees to move him to a setup role and put Luke Weaver back into the ninth inning. Williams had one more rough appearance in early May before settling into a groove over the next few weeks. He returned to closing when Weaver landed on the injured list at the beginning of June.

Williams was lights out from that point through the All-Star Break. He gave up runs in seven of his first nine appearances of the second half, though, and the Yankees pushed him out of the closer role for good when they acquired David Bednar at the trade deadline. Williams posted a 5.06 ERA in the second half despite striking out nearly 40% of batters faced — the second-best rate among qualified relievers behind Mason Miller. He worked in a setup capacity late in the season and into the playoffs. Williams tossed four scoreless frames with four strikeouts in the postseason.

The end result was a career-worst 4.79 earned run average over 67 appearances. The Mets are placing a decent sized bet that the poor run prevention was a fluke. Opponents had a .339 batting average on balls in play when runners were on base. That’s easily the highest mark in Williams’ career (aside from his brief 2019 debut). He had a very difficult time stranding runners as a result. While relievers certainly need to be able to work out of tough situations, that had never previously been an issue.

Batted ball metrics can be volatile, especially for relievers who only throw 60-70 innings in a season. Williams’ stuff still grades out extremely well, and he remains capable of missing bats at a level that few other pitchers can match. He struck out 34.7% of opponents behind a 16.8% swinging strike rate. Those are down slightly from his usual marks but remain among the best in MLB. Among relievers with 50+ innings, Williams finished eighth in strikeout rate and 10th in whiffs.

Williams has two pitches which he has used at roughly equal rates over the past couple seasons. His fastball sits around 94 MPH and while it’s a good pitch, his standout offering is his unique “Airbender” screwball/changeup. The pitch still moves unlike any other changeup in the league, and opponents have hit below .200 against it in every full season of his career.

The underlying numbers made Williams a popular “buy-low” target among teams and fanbases. That is borne out in the contract to an extent. Williams might have been in the running for a $100MM deal had he posted another sub-2.00 ERA season. It didn’t force him to settle for a pillow contract, as he’s still being paid as a high-end reliever. Williams falls well short of the four years and $72MM which Tanner Scott commanded last winter, but he’s within the $46-58MM range in which closers Robert Suarez, Liam Hendriks and Raisel Iglesias have found themselves over the past few offseasons. He came up shy of the four years and $68MM which MLBTR had predicted in ranking him the second-best reliever in the class.

While an ugly walk year ERA still has some impact on a pitcher’s market, Williams is the third example this offseason of teams placing a decent amount of emphasis on stuff and whiffs in spite of that. Dylan Cease commanded a seven-year deal from the Blue Jays coming off a 4.55 ERA over 32 starts. Ryan Helsley pulled $14MM annually from the Orioles on a two-year contract with an opt-out despite a brutal finish to his 2025 season with the Mets. It’s easier for clubs to place that kind of bet on pitchers coming from a different team. The Mets were never likely to bring back Helsley, and while the Yankees reportedly kept in contact with Williams’ camp, they also opted not to issue him a $22.025MM qualifying offer that probably would have kept him around on a one-year deal.

The Mets obviously don’t feel that Williams is incapable of succeeding in New York. He’ll slot into a key late-inning role in Carlos Mendoza’s bullpen. He projects as the closer for now but could slide back into a setup capacity if the Mets bring back Edwin Díaz, which they’re reportedly still considering. If the Mets allow their longtime closer to walk, they’ll need to bring in multiple right-handed setup arms to bridge the gap to Williams in the ninth.

RosterResource projects the Mets’ 2026 payroll and luxury tax commitments in the $277-280MM range. They’re likely to end up beyond the $304MM final surcharge threshold by the time they address the rotation, bullpen, and/or first base and the corner outfield. The estimate from FanGraphs currently has them in the second tier of penalization — just below the $284MM cutoff for Tier 3. They’re taxed at a 62% rate for spending between $264MM and $284MM, so the Williams signing comes with an approximate $8-10MM tax hit depending on the calculation of the net present value. They’ll pay a 95% tax on spending between $284MM and $304MM and a 110% bill on any money beyond $304MM.

Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the Mets and Williams had agreed to a three-year deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted that the guarantee was above $50MM, while Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the salary/bonus/deferral breakdown. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was first on the assignment bonus.

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images.

Braves Sign Austin Pope To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have signed right-hander Austin Pope to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The Beverly Hills Sports Council client has been assigned to Triple-A Gwinnett for now but will presumably receive an invite to big league spring training.

Pope, 27, joins a new organization for the first time in his career. The pontiff was drafted by the Diamondbacks back in 2019. He climbed the minor league ladder and got to make brief major league debut in 2025. He was added to the roster in the final week of the regular season and got to make one appearance. On September 25th, with the Snakes down 8-0 to the Dodgers, Pope tossed two scoreless innings of mop-up duty. He allowed two hits and a walk while striking out one.

The righty was outrighted off the roster at the end of the season and was able to elect free agency, which has allowed Atlanta to scoop him up. They are presumably placing stock in Pope’s minor league results. Over the past three years, he has thrown 160 1/3 innings in the minor leagues, mostly with the Triple-A Reno Aces. His 4.55 earned run average in that time isn’t especially impressive but the Aces play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His 9.4% walk rate in that time was pretty close to average while his 27.6% strikeout rate was quite strong.

Pope still has a full slate of option and just a handful of service days. If he gets added to Atlanta’s roster at any point, he can give the club a depth arm with roster flexibility and years of cheap control. For now, he can provide them papal depth without taking up a spot on the 40-man.

Photo courtesy of Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images

Five Non-Tendered Pitchers To Keep An Eye On This Winter

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees clubs allow some of their players who remain under team control to test the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Previous seasons have seen a number of high-profile players wind up non-tendered, with Kyle Schwarber, Cody Bellinger, and Brandon Woodruff all having been non-tendered at one point or another in their careers only to this year appear on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.

While stars of that caliber who reach free agency by way of a non-tender are extremely rare, plenty of others find themselves cut loose early by their clubs only to make an impact elsewhere down the line. That could be as a regular in the lineup or rotation or simply as a solid contributor off the bench or out of the bullpen. Last weekend, we took a look at five hitters who hit free agency following the non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Now let’s take a look at the pitching side of things, where a handful of intriguing names were recently made available.

Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2026 season in parentheses:

Jason Foley (30)

Foley is the prototypical interesting non-tendered pitcher; a reliever with quite a lot of high-end, late-inning experience who was let go after an injury-marred season. Foley made his big league debut with the Tigers in 2021 and has been excellent when healthy. Across 199 2/3 innings of work, he’s posted a 3.16 ERA (122 ERA+) with a 3.22 FIP that more or less matches those results. He’s struck out just 18.1% of his opponents in that time against a 6.1% walk rate, but makes up for it with a 54.1% ground ball rate for his career.

That’s the 14th-highest grounder rate among pitchers with as many innings as him over the past five years, sandwiched between Camilo Doval and Andres Munoz. Foley also has ninth-inning experience, having served as the Tigers’ closer in 2024 and collected 28 saves in that role. The right-hander’s 2024 season saw him take steps back in most of his major peripherals, and a 2025 season lost to shoulder surgery makes him a question mark headed into 2026. He could be a steal on the relief market if healthy and could be controlled through the 2028 season via arbitration.

Mark Leiter Jr. (35)

A veteran relief arm who has rarely found high-end results at the big league level, on the surface Leiter looks like the sort of reliever who frequently finds himself non-tendered over the offseason. Even so, a closer look at Leiter’s profile reveals an interesting relief arm with plenty of upside. The right-hander settled into a full-time relief role in Chicago during the 2023 season, and over the past three years has pitched out of the bullpen for the Cubs and Yankees. In that time, his top line numbers are unimpressive: a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) in 170 2/3 innings of work looks like the average middle relief arm. A closer look reveals an impressive profile, however. Leiter has struck out 29.2% of his opponents over the last three years while walking 8.5% and maintaining a solid 45.5% ground ball rate.

Leiter’s 3.13 SIERA over the past three seasons is the 13th best figure in baseball among relievers with at least 150 innings of work, just ahead of high-end relievers like Emmanuel Clase, Tanner Scott, and Luke Weaver. The difference between those relief arms and Leiter comes down to batted ball outcomes; over the past two years, Leiter has posted an ugly .359 BABIP and a strand rate of just 66.5%. If those numbers can normalize in 2026, that positive regression could be enough to make Leiter a solid late-inning reliever. Even if not, however, it’s worth noting that Leiter’s splitter makes him very effective against opposite-handed pitchers: In 104 2/3 innings of work against lefties the last three years, Leiter has posted a 2.49 ERA and 2.57 FIP with a 32.1% strikeout rate. That gives him a higher floor than most non-tendered pitchers as a quality option against southpaws.

Evan Phillips (31)

The Dodgers opted to send Phillips into free agency rather than pay him a projected (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) $6.1MM via arbitration. That’s a decision they surely wouldn’t have made if not for the fact that Phillips underwent Tommy John surgery back in May and isn’t likely to pitch before the second half of the 2026 season. With 2026 being his final year under club control, the Dodgers evidently thought better of paying that price tag (and the 110% tax they’d owe based on their luxury bill) for, at best, half a season of a reliever.

It’s an understandable decision, but Phillips has been utterly dominant since joining Los Angeles. In 195 innings since being plucked off waivers from the Rays back in 2021, the right-hander has pitched to a 2.22 ERA with a 29.0% strikeout rate and a 2.77 FIP for the Dodgers. He served as the club’s closer much of the 2023 and ’24 seasons, collecting 45 saves in that time, and looked as good as ever this year before going under the knife with seven scoreless outings and a 27.3% strikeout rate. Given his combination of dominance and health questions, Phillips seems like a candidate for a two-year deal not unlike the one Liam Hendriks signed with the Red Sox two offseasons ago.

Gregory Santos (26)

The youngest player on this list, Santos has extremely enticing upside but lacks a track record at the big league level. The right-hander’s claim to fame is his 2023 season with the White Sox, where he emerged as a force in the club’s bullpen. He pitched to a 3.39 ERA in 60 appearances that year, combining a 22.8% strikeout rate with a 52.5% ground ball rate to boast a 2.65 FIP and 3.32 SIERA. Santos’ combination of youth and results convinced the Mariners to surrender Zach DeLoach, Prelander Berroa, and a Competitive Balance draft pick in a trade with the ChiSox.

Sensible as the move may have seemed at the time, it did not work out for Seattle. The righty made just 16 appearances for the Mariners over the past two years due to lat and knee injuries. His results in those outings left much to be desired as well. Santos posted a 5.02 ERA and 4.41 FIP. That’s a sample size of just 14 1/3 innings, however, and it’s easy to imagine a 26-year-old getting back on track in a new organization. A team that helps Santos return to the form he flashed with Chicago two years ago would be rewarded handsomely, as he can be controlled through the 2028 campaign via arbitration.

Jacob Webb (32)

Webb has been at least serviceable, if not better, for the past four seasons. He’s been non-tendered in consecutive seasons — first by the Orioles, then by the Rangers — despite logging respective ERAs of 3.02 and 3.00 while making at least 55 appearances for each of those two teams. Dating back to 2021, Webb touts a 3.38 earned run average in 210 1/3 innings. He was sensational down the stretch in 2025, too, tossing 13 2/3 shutout innings with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio over the season’s final month.

Webb doesn’t throw particularly hard or miss that bats at a premium level. He averaged 93.4 mph on his four-seamer last year in Arlington, marking the second straight season his velo has trended downward. However, he was slightly better than average in terms of inducing chases off the plate (33.1%) and inducing swinging-strikes (12.5%). Neither is an elite rate, but coupled with a career-best 7.1% walk rate and plenty of weak contact (86.6 mph average exit velo, 34.6% hard-hit rate), it was enough to help Webb post a third straight sub-4.00 ERA.

Now up to five-plus years of MLB service, Webb can no longer be retained for additional seasons via arbitration. However, he’s been a solid middle reliever who’s picked up the occasional hold and a rogue save here and there. He was non-tendered despite just a $2MM projection in arbitration. Teams looking for affordable arms to fill out the middle innings on a budget should have interest.

Poll: Should The Giants Consider A Bryce Eldridge Trade?

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The Giants made one of the most surprising trades in recent memory when they landed Rafael Devers from the Red Sox this summer in exchange for a package of Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, James Tibbs, and Jose Bello. Devers took over the first base job in San Francisco and now figures to be locked into a first base or DH role for the next eight years. That leaves first base and DH prospect Bryce Eldridge facing some uncertainty that’s become unusual for a prospect of his caliber in the modern game.

Eldridge, 21, made his big league debut this past year to much fanfare but spent only ten games in the majors and didn’t hit much in that limited time. Eldridge tore up the Double-A level this year with a .280/.350/.512 slash line (147 wRC+) in 140 trips to the plate to start the season before being promoted to Triple-A, where he spent most of the year and posted a .249/.322/.514 slash line. That was good for a wRC+ of just 105 thanks to the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, but Eldridge’s 18 homers in 66 games is hard to argue with. That elite power is what’s made him a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport, and any team with a hole at first base would find it easy to dream on the youngster anchoring the middle of their lineup for the next half decade or longer.

Of course, the Giants do not have a hole at first base. That’s not to say they couldn’t find a way to squeeze a player of Eldridge’s caliber into the lineup, but in order to do so, they’d severely limit their overall lineup’s flexibility by locking down both the first base and DH spots on an everyday basis. That can certainly be worth it, as the division rival Dodgers have shown with their wildly successful duo of Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. But even in L.A. there have been some clear downsides. The team’s defense has suffered with players like Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy forced to play the field full time at positions where they’re only passable defenders.

Is that reason enough to consider a trade? Eldridge would certainly be a tantalizing trade target for a number of teams who could be looking to sell this winter. The Cardinals seem to be more focused on adding pitching in their trades to this point, but a team like the Twins or Marlins could surely benefit from having Eldridge as the centerpiece of their rebuild, and a player like Edward Cabrera or Joe Ryan would look good in the Giants’ rotation alongside Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. The Giants have made clear that they aren’t interested in spending at the top of the market for pitching this winter, but a trade of Eldridge could allow them to land a high-end starter without adding a hefty salary to the books.

Some of this, of course, comes down to how much the Giants believe in Eldridge. His 105 wRC+ and 30.8% strikeout rate at Triple-A this year likely created some mild concerns. If Eldridge were to struggle in 2026, his value would surely fall. That could make this offseason an appropriate time to move on, though it’s also worth remembering how devastating moving on from a top prospect too soon can be. The Cubs acquired Michael Busch just 27 games into his big league career and he turned in a 140 wRC+ this season in the middle of their lineup as an everyday first baseman. Of course, Chicago acquired Busch from the Dodgers not long after they brought Ohtani into the fold. Los Angeles surely aren’t too worried about Busch breaking out elsewhere. Perhaps the same could be true for San Francisco and Eldridge if the return is strong enough. That would be especially true if recent rumors connecting the Giants to Kyle Schwarber prove accurate.

How do MLBTR readers feel the Giants should proceed with Eldridge? Should they hold onto their top prospect and hope he and Devers can become an elite offensive duo in the middle of their lineup for the better part of the next decade? Or should they deal Eldridge to maximize positional flexibility and bring in a more impactful talent on the pitching side? Have your say in the poll below:

Rockies Name Josh Byrnes General Manager

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3:04pm: The Rockies have formally announced the hiring of Byrnes.

“I’m incredibly excited to be able to bring Josh into our group,” DePodesta said within today’s press release. “Few executives in baseball share his combination of intellectual curiosity, breadth of experience, and on-field successes. We are extremely fortunate to add him, as he immediately strengthens our entire baseball operation.”

9:43am: The Rockies are set to hire Dodgers senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes away as their new general manager, per Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Though he’ll have the GM title, Byrnes will be second in command in the new-look Rox front office that’s headed up by recently hired president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta.

Byrnes, 55, is a seasoned front office veteran who has previously run baseball operations for both the Padres and D-backs, holding the title of general manager with each club. Byrnes is also a former assistant GM within the Rockies organization itself, having held that role in Denver from 1999 through 2002, so he’s something of a known commodity for owner Dick Monfort.

Byrnes was one of Andrew Friedman’s first hires after being named president of baseball operations in Los Angeles. He’s spent 11 years as one of Friedman’s top lieutenants, supervising both the scouting and player development departments for the Dodgers. Byrnes’ résumé is an impressive one. He’s spent more than a decade as a key figure in the front office for a Dodgers club that has won three World Series titles in that span. Prior to that, he headed up a pair of other front offices in the NL West and also served as an assistant GM with the 2003-04 Red Sox during their curse-breaking World Series victory.

That’s 26 straight seasons as either an assistant GM, a general manager or a senior vice president of baseball operations. Prior to that run, Byrnes cut his teeth as an advance scout and scouting director in Cleveland under legendary general manager John Hart. Byrnes also overlapped with another advance scout and rising star in player development during that time … his new boss, DePodesta.

All of those prominent roles give Byrnes ample insight into how to best reshape and build out a Rockies infrastructure that has lagged far behind the times. Colorado has the smallest analytics department and smallest front office, in general, of any team in baseball. Under the Monfort family’s ownership, they’ve been either loyal to a fault or downright insular, depending on how one prefers to frame it. Byrnes and DePodesta figure to make numerous hires to beef up the Rockies’ data practice, player development department and broader baseball operations setup.

Guardians, Connor Brogdon Agree To Major League Deal

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The Guardians and right-hander Connor Brogdon have agreed to a major league deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Brogdon will make a salary of $900K next year, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. The Guardians have 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

It’s a bit surprising to see Brogdon, 31 in January, secure himself a big league deal. He settled for a minor league deal with the Angels last winter. He was added to the roster a couple of times during the season, but was later passed through waivers in both instances. He tossed 47 innings for the Halos around those transactions, allowing 5.55 earned runs per nine.

Those were obviously not great results but the Guardians are presumably seeing something attractive under the hood. Brogdon’s 24.6% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate were both close to league average. His ERA was inflated because he allowed 11 home runs, almost doubling his previous career high of six. There are some ERA estimators which consider home run spikes to be fluky. Brogdon’s SIERA, for instance, was just 3.86 this year.

It’s also perhaps worth pointing out that Brogdon’s velocity came back. He averaged 95.5 miles per hour on his fastball in 2025. In 2024, he had battled plantar fasciitis and only tossed three big league innings. In that small sample of work, his fastball was down to 92.8 mph.

The Guardians presumably feel there’s a path to get Brogdon back to his previous results. From 2020 to 2022, then with the Phillies, Brogdon tossed 113 innings with a 3.42 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He earned three saves and 16 holds. He also tossed 8 2/3 postseason innings with a 2.08 ERA in 2022, as the Phils made it all the way to the World Series. His fastball velo was in the 95-96 mph range for those seasons.

In 2023, his results backed up. He posted a 4.03 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. His average fastball velo fell to 94.7 mph. The following year, he bounced to the Dodgers and battled the aforementioned plantar fasciitis situation. With the Angels in 2025, his results weren’t fully back but the velo and strikeouts were close to his best years in Philadelphia.

The Guards generally have pretty good bullpens and that was the case in 2025. Even though they lost Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation in July, the club’s relief corps still finished the season with a collective 3.44 ERA, third in the majors behind the Padres and Red Sox. Brogdon will jump into that mix as the Guards try to coax better results out of him than the Angels did in 2025.

Brogdon is out of options, meaning he can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to waivers. If the Guards pass him through waivers at some point, he would have the right to elect free agency as a player with at least three years of service time. However, since he has less than five years of service, he would have to forfeit his remaining salary commitments in order to exercise that right.

The $900K salary isn’t that high, considering the MLB minimum will be $780K next year. However, it is perhaps enough to dissuade other teams from claiming Brogdon. It’s also very unlikely Brogdon choose to leave that money on the table. Perhaps the Guardians are planning on having Brogdon in Triple-A as non-roster depth at some point in the future. If he is holding a roster spot at the end of the 2026 season, he can be retained via arbitration for 2027.

Photo courtesy of Ed Szczepanski, Imagn Images

Latest On Center Field Market

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The center field market appears to have lots of demand. The Phillies, Mets, Rays, Orioles, Diamondbacks and Royals are all looking for upgrades at the position, according to reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic.

Those teams all make logical sense. The Phillies acquired Harrison Bader at the deadline but lost him to free agency a few months later. The Mets did the same thing with Cedric Mullins, who was terrible for them. The Rays had a rotating cast of characters in the outfield in 2025 and are known to be looking for upgrades. The Orioles traded Mullins and then trotted out Colton Cowser, who struggled while playing through broken ribs. The Diamondbacks have been waiting for Alek Thomas to break out for a few years now. The Royals have been struggling to get good production from the grass for a few seasons and are looking for upgrades.

That demand might outpace the supply. The free agent market doesn’t have a standout option. Trent Grisham would have been the headliner but he accepted a qualifying offer to return to the Yankees. Cody Bellinger is out there but he’s more of a corner guy who can play some center, as opposed to an everyday solution. Bader is available and coming off a nice season at the plate but that was fuelled by a .359 batting average on balls in play. Mullins, as mentioned, is coming off a dreadful campaign.

On the trade market, Luis Robert Jr. is available but he’s coming off two straight poor seasons. The Astros are open to moving Jake Meyers for pitching help but Meyers has generally been a light-hitting, glove-first type in his career. Perhaps the Rockies would be open to moving Brenton Doyle but he’s still controlled for four more seasons and it would be a sell-low move for Colorado after his poor 2025 campaign.

The Red Sox might be willing to move Jarren Duran to clear their outfield logjam but Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan report that the Sox are looking for a return commensurate with his excellent 2024 season as opposed to his 2025 results. Duran’s combination of offense, defense and speed led to FanGraphs crediting him with 6.8 wins above replacement in 2024. Baseball Reference was even more bullish, giving him 8.7 WAR. He regressed a bit in 2025 and ended up at 3.9 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR. He’ll make $7.7MM in 2026 and can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons after that.

If the Sox don’t want to sell low on Duran and no one is meeting their asking price, then perhaps he’ll stay in Boston. It does feel like they have to move someone, however. Their outfield mix currently projects to include Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and Jhostynxon Garcia. Anthony and Rafaela feel locked in because they have both signed extensions. Rafaela can also play second base but is the best defensive center fielder of the bunch.

Another theoretical trade option is Byron Buxton of the Twins. His contract gives him full no-trade protection through 2026, though it then drops to just a five-team no-trade list for the final two years of the deal. In the lead up to the 2025 deadline, as the Twins sold off a number of controllable relievers and sent infielder Carlos Correa back to Houston, Buxton repeatedly said he wasn’t interested in waiving that clause and wanted to remain a Twin for life.

That stance appears to have softened lately. Reporting last month from Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggested that Buxton would become more open to waiving his clause if the Twins continued tearing down the roster, perhaps by trading Joe Ryan or Pablo López. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey pushed back on the notion that the Twins would be making more sell-side moves but they also haven’t done much this winter to tip the scales either way.

McDaniel and Passan, linked above, say that Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause. It’s unclear if they mean that in the same way as Hayes, where it’s conditional on the Twins going down the rebuild road. Presumably, if Buxton is asked to waive his clause at some point, that would be part of a rebuild regardless.

Buxton is an incredibly talented player who has dealt with a lot of injury issues. His career high in games played in 140, which was back in 2017. From 2018 to 2023, he never topped 92 contests in any one season. He got to 102 in 2024 and 126 this year. When on the field, the quality has been great. He just wrapped up a season in which he hit 35 home runs and stole 24 bases. He slashed .264/.327/.551 and was credited with 5.0 fWAR.

His unique contract reflects that uncertainty. He is being paid $15MM annually, a decent sum but about half of what most superstars get. However, he can make millions more based on plate appearances and MVP voting. For the Twins, or a theoretical team rostering him in the future, they’d be happy to pay him the extra since that means he’s on the field and producing. Buxton would surely garner lots of interest if the Twins made him available but it’s still not clear if the club will go down that road.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Mariners Among Teams Interested In Brendan Donovan

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As the Cardinals navigate the early stages of a rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan stands as perhaps the most appealing trade commodity on the St. Louis roster. The Mariners spent much of last offseason trying to pry Donovan loose from the Cardinals (under then-president of baseball ops John Mozeliak), and they’ve once again approached the Cards to express interest in coming together on a trade involving Donovan, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.

Donovan, 29 in January, turned in a sharp .287/.353/.422 batting line in 2025 — about 19% better than league-average performance, by measure of wRC+. He popped 10 homers in 515 plate appearances, piled up 32 doubles, walked at an 8.2% clip and struck out in only 13% of his plate appearances. It’s the fourth straight year of comparable hit-over-power and OBP-fueled offense for Donovan, who’s a lifetime .282/.361/.411 hitter in the majors. He’s walked at a 9.1% clip and fanned in just 13.5% of his 2006 MLB plate appearances dating back to 2022.

On top of Donovan’s generally strong output and impeccable bat-to-ball skills, he’s a gifted defender who can handle just about any position on the diamond. He’s played primarily second base and left field but has some decent experience at shortstop (106 innings), third base (270 innings), first base (151 innings) and in right field (205 innings).

For the Mariners, Donovan is an ideal fit. He can handle second base, third base or an outfield corner — all currently unsettled in Seattle at the moment. Prospects Cole Young and Colt Emerson are highly touted young players who could step up and solidify second base and/or third base, but Young struggled in his first 77 MLB games last year and Emerson is a 20-year-old who’s played all of six games at the Triple-A level thus far. Victor Robles is penciled into right field alongside Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez, but Robles and Dominic Canzone could fill more part-time roles if Donovan is brought in and gets occasional work on the outfield grass.

Donovan also embodies the type of high-contact bat the Mariners have hoped to add in recent offseasons. The M’s had the second-highest strikeout rate of any MLB team in both 2023 and 2024. They dropped to seventh last year. Over the past five seasons, only the Angels (24.9%) have a higher team strikeout rate than the Mariners (24.7%). A full season of Josh Naylor helps to combat that, but 500-plus plate appearances from Donovan would give them a pair of premium contact bats at or near the top of the lineup.

Of course, Donovan’s versatility, production and affordability make him an ideal fit for the majority of contending teams seeking to upgrade their lineup this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $5.4MM salary for Donovan next year. He’ll be owed a raise on that heading into 2027 — his final season of club control (barring an extension between now and then). Any team acquiring Donovan would do so knowing that they can have him for something in the rough vicinity of $15MM total through 2027. It’s an unmitigated bargain, but that also means he’ll come with a lofty asking price. The Mariners, with one of MLB’s top farm systems, are well-equipped to make a compelling offer.

Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote this week that the Cardinals are only inclined to trade Donovan if they’re blown away by an offer they don’t think they can refuse. Interest in Donovan is so high, however, that Woo suggests such an offer is likely to materialize. Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN offered similar sentiments yesterday, writing that while the Cards “are not eager” to make the move, Donovan’s market is “percolating” and an eventual trade seems likelier than not.

In addition to the Mariners, Donovan is known to have drawn interest from the Pirates, Astros, Guardians and Royals. That’s surely just a fraction of the clubs to have reached out to the Cardinals regarding Donovan. The Dodgers, Yankees and Blue Jays were all tied to Donovan last offseason and/or at this past summer’s trade deadline.

Blue Jays Open To Trading Jose Berrios

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The Blue Jays’ early signings of Dylan Cease and KBO returnee Cody Ponce have deepened a rotation that already included Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. Lefty Eric Lauer and righty Yariel Rodriguez give Toronto a pair of quality swing options, too, and the Jays still have Bowden Francis and former top prospect Ricky Tiedemann (who should be recovered from 2024 Tommy John surgery) in the upper minors as well.

The magnitude of Ponce’s three-year, $30MM contract presumably puts him squarely into the rotation. Barring a move to a six-man rotation or a spring injury, Toronto will have more starters than rotation places available. Injuries can turn a “surplus” into a deficiency pretty quickly, particularly when it comes to pitchers, but the Jays are willing to trade Berrios, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.

It’s easy to frame this as the Jays adding enough depth that they’re now willing to deal Berrios. That’d be the charitable (to Berrios) way of shaping things. The other and perhaps more likely angle is simply that Toronto wasn’t enamored with Berrios continuing as its fourth starter and has acted decisively with a pair of additions pushing the veteran righty down the depth chart.

Berrios, 32 next May, has been an iron man for the Jays and Twins throughout his big league tenure. He’s started at least 30 games every year since 2018, with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, when he started a full slate of 12 games. No pitcher has started more games (234) or totaled more innings (1367 1/3) than Berrios in that span of eight years.

Along the way, Berrios has generally been an above-average starter. He’s logged a 3.94 ERA, set down 22.6% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 6.8% of the batters he’s faced. Few starters have been this reliable for this long.

Be that as it may, Berrios’ more recent seasons have seen him trend in the wrong direction. After punching out 23.7% of his opponents from 2018-23, he’s dropped to 19.6% over the past two seasons. Add in a 19.8% strikeout rate in 2022, and Berrios has now been under 20% in that regard in three of the past four years. League average in that time has been about 22.5%. Berrios has spent much of his career working with plus command, but this past season’s 8% walk rate — while still slightly better than the 8.4% league average — was up considerably from the 6.3% mark he posted across four prior seasons.

The worrying trends don’t stop there. Berrios’ 93 mph average four-seamer in 2025 was the lowest of his career, while the 92.2 mph average on his sinker was his second-lowest (leading only the 92.1 mph he averaged back in 2019). He also surrendered the highest average exit velocity (90.3 mph) and barrel rate (11.3%) of his career. His opponents’ 42.5% hard-hit rate was the second-highest mark in his MLB run. Berrios has only yielded a hard-hit rate north of 40% in three of his 10 major league seasons. All three have come within the past four years. Unsurprisingly, given the dips in velocity, command and whiffs, Berrios has become more homer-prone; after surrendering an average of 1.17 homers per nine frames from 2017-23, he’s up to 1.43 since Opening Day 2024.

None of this necessarily makes Berrios a bad pitcher. He’s an ultra-durable source of reliable, if unspectacular innings. However, coming off a down season that ended with what was incredibly the first IL stint of his big league career (elbow inflammation), would Berrios match the remaining three years and $66MM on his contract? He’d be hard-pressed to do so — certainly once factoring in the opt-out provision he has following the 2026 campaign and the escalators that could push his remaining guarantee from $66MM to $70MM.

Currently, Berrios is guaranteed $24MM in both 2027 and 2028. Both figures would rise by $1MM if the right-hander pitches a combined 300 innings in 2025-26 and another $1MM if he gets to a combined 350 innings. With 166 frames under his belt in 2025, he’d only need 134 innings in 2026 to secure an additional $2MM and a tougher but plausible 184 innings to tack on yet another $1MM per season. Given his durability, it’s likely that Berrios will at least be promised at least $50MM over two seasons when weighing his opt-out opportunity next winter — and possibly two years and $52MM.

All of that coalesces to make Berrios a difficult player to trade. He’ll pitch next year at 32, so it’s hardly out of the question that he rediscovers some of his waning ability to miss bats and/or limit walks and boosts his profile a bit. In that instance, however, Berrios might very well opt out of the two years left on his contract beyond the 2026 season. On the other hand, if the veteran righty continues to see his strikeouts dip and/or see his walks creep further north, he could be more of an innings-eating fifth starter who’s trending down and owed $24-26MM in both his age-33 and age-34 campaigns.

Essentially, any team trading for Berrios would probably do so with the hope that he’d rebound closer to his 2021-23 form — at which point he’d likely opt out. But to acquire him, they’d also have to take on the downside of Berrios maintaining his recent status quo or even slipping further, thus making that $48-52MM owed to him in 2027-28 wholly unappealing.

It’d be a surprise if the Jays were to find an interested team that was willing to both take on the entirety of Berrios’ remaining contract (to say nothing of doing so and surrendering young talent). In all likelihood, the Jays would need to include at least some cash or take back another contract of some note at a different position. That said, starting pitching is always in demand, and there are always teams looking for creative ways to swap weighty contracts that might better fit their current roster or payroll objectives.

One other fascinating wrinkle to consider: Berrios ended the 2025 season with 9.044 years of major league service time. That places him 128 days shy of 10 years. With MLB Opening Day set for March 25 and the trade deadline set to fall on Friday, July 31, Berrios would reach 10 years of service the day before next summer’s deadline. At that point, he’d acquire 10-and-5 rights — 10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team — thereby granting him full veto power over any trade scenarios. Currently, Berrios can block trades to a slate of eight teams.

Toronto can still carry Berrios into the 2026 season and enjoy the depth he provides. In all likelihood, injuries are going to thin out the top end of the current rotation options. That’s just reality for any big league club in today’s game. But the Jays have viable rotation alternatives, and the looming realization of Berrios’ 10-and-5 rights mean that trading him next winter will be even more complicated if he chooses to forgo his opt-out. There’d also be quite a bit of pressure to try to push a deal across the finish line in late July in the event that the Jays are intent on dealing him this summer.

It’s a complicated scenario, to say the least. Berrios’ contract is underwater but not an albatross. He’s a durable source of steady innings but no longer a borderline All-Star. The Jays can try to trade him this winter or during the season, but they’ll have not only the “clock” of the trade deadline but also the artificial clock of Berrios’ forthcoming full no-trade rights. Moving Berrios now would free up some more space for a run at re-signing Bo Bichette or trying to lure Kyle Tucker to Toronto, though the Jays would probably need to take on some other costs in order to get a deal done. It all makes for a fascinating thread to follow ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings, where convoluted trade packages and high-profile changes of scenery are the norm.

MLB Mailbag: Mets, Red Sox, Murakami, Expansion, Cubs, Tatis

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This week's mailbag gets into the Mets' offseason thus far, Craig Breslow's tenure atop Boston's front office, the Munetaka Murakami situation, how an expansion draft works, the Cubs' anti-deferral policy, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s trade value, and much more.

Ed asks:

I'm finding it hard to understand the Mets thinking. I'm scratching my head about the Marcus Semien/ Brandon Nimmo trade. I asked my friend who's a big Mets fan (his last name is Metz) what he thought and he responded that it depends on what outfielder they replace Nimmo with. I told him that unless they break the bank on Kyle Tucker its not going to be a clear upgrade. I'd say Cody Bellinger is an slight upgrade but after looking at their numbers its amazing how similar Bellinger and Nimmo are offensively and I don't see Cody putting up as good numbers in Citi Field.

Then I heard they are shopping Senga, instead of signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez to compliment Senga they are looking to move on all together. Again I think both Framber and Ranger are probably a little better than Senga but if you sign one of them and keep Senga he becomes your # 2 which he is much better suited for.

I believe last year was more of a fluke for Devin Williams than the new norm, but would rather have Diaz, especially since William's problem might have been that he just can't handle the New York limelight. The Mets are now going with Williams as closer unless they resign Diaz and yes it probably closes the door on Diaz unless they want to invest over $100 million on two back end of the bullpen guys.

Just curious what you think of these moves. Do you feel the Mets will be stronger in the OF, Starting and Relief pitching in 2026?

Abner asks:

As a NY Mets fan I would love to see a late innings duo of Edwin Díaz & Devin Williams. But knowing how does David Stearns operate, how realistic is the Mets signing Díaz with Williams already in the fold? Will they look for cheaper options getting a guy like Tyler Rogers and/or Emilio Pagán to be the setup man while Williams is the closer? If they decide to invest heavily in Williams and Díaz, does that mean that they will not invest in an ace for the starting rotation this offseason? Thanks in advance.

On the Nimmo/Semien trade, I agree with Ed's friend.  So far, we've seen a portion of the Mets' offseason puzzle.  It's not close to being complete.

At age 33, Nimmo projects as roughly a 2.5 WAR player next year.  It's true that the free agent market is light on outfielders who are capable of that, beyond Tucker and Bellinger.  But it's also true that 34 MLB outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR this year, including several few saw coming.  And that doesn't account for platoons that combined for 2.5 WAR-type value.

There's also collapse risk with the 33-year-old Nimmo, who is under contract through 2030.  Let's take a quick look at the last five years and see how many 33-year-old outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR:

Nimmo's track record is very good, and a projection system is not going to project him to fall off a cliff after a 3-WAR season.  But outfield is a young man's game, and you can see how rare good seasons are at 33+.  With Nimmo, this could be a case of the old adage about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late.  So I don't mind subtracting a player who probably won't age well, saving some money long-term and bringing in a second baseman with strong defense.  That's not to say Semien doesn't have his own collapse risk at 35, but his speed and defense are holding strong.

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