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MLBTR Live Chat

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Mark P

  • The Weekend Chat has been launched! Let’s open up the queue to see what’s what…

Charkip

  • Who says no, Jordan Lawlar to the Guardians and Chase DeLauter to the DBacks

Mark P

  • Probably both teams, but Cleveland moreso.

Tigers Fan

  • Why haven’t we heard any talk about the Tigers trying to extend Casey Mize?

Mark P

  • It could be that these talks are happening and both sides are staying quiet, but Mize is something of a tricky player to evaluate for extension purposes.  He’s only had a couple of (mostly) healthy seasons and pitched well, but not necessarily front-of-the-rotation well.

    I’m sure Mize feels like he can hit another level, and hitting that level in 2026 lines him up nicely in free agency next winter.  So he might not want to lock himself down to an extension now.

Guest

  • Bellinger will get more or less than Bregman?

Mark P

  • I probably shouldn’t doubt Boras’ ability to work his magic, but I think it’ll be less

Squints

  • As a Brewers fan, is there any rebuttal to the Cubs recent moves?

Mark P

  • The Brewers aren’t ever going to outspend the Cubs, but that hasn’t stopped Milwaukee from beating them in the past.  I’m not sure I’d necessarily even pick Chicago for first in the Central right now.

Scott S

  • What type of package should the Brewers receive from a Freddy Peralta trade? Which teams seem to be most interested?

Mark P

  • Peralta is so inexpensive that pretty much any contender in the league would or should want him.

    The most popular comp for a Peralta trade package is the Corbin Burnes package: a MLB-ready position player, an MLB-ready pitcher, and a draft pick (or another minor leaguer, if the Brewers are dealing with a team that doesn’t have a tradeable Competitive Balance Pick).

  • Given how Peralta is also making a little more than half of Burnes’ salary in his final arb-eligible season, the Brewers may well ask for more in a trade return.

Bregman

  • Think the Cubs will do the Red Sox a solid and trade Hoerner to Boston?

Mark P

  • The Bregman signing makes a Nico trade slightly more likely, but if I’m the Cubs, I keep everyone for the sake of depth.  Injuries are inevitable, and there are worse ideas than having Moises/Shaw/Alcantara as the all-younger bench core.

I got friends in Lowe places

  • Any thoughts on where Nathanial Lowe lands?

hiflew

  • Any rumblings about the Rockies plans at 1B?  Is the plan to hope for Charlie Condon to win the job in the spring?  They only have Blaine Crim otherwise.

Mark P

  • Hey, two questions in one fell swoop!  Lowe’s list of potential landing spots is pretty thin, but a one-year deal in Colorado seems like as decent a spot as any.  Condon has only 55 Double-A games under his belt, so an Opening Day job seems a little unlikely.  The Rockies should be as patient as possible with Condon.

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Marlins Re-Sign Jesus Tinoco To Minor League Contract

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The Marlins signed Jesus Tinoco to a minor league deal earlier this week, according to the right-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Tinoco returns after electing free agency following an outright assignment off Miami’s roster in early November.

The length of the contract isn’t known, which is a key element since Tinoco isn’t expected to pitch in 2026 after undergoing flexor surgery last September.  It is possible the Marlins inked him to a two-year pact with an eye towards having Tinoco healthy and available for 2027, and giving him the 2026 season to rehab in a familiar environment.

This is now the third time Tinoco has joined the Marlins over his 14-pro career, which includes six seasons in the majors (from 2019-25 with the Marlins, Cubs, Rangers, and Rockies) and the 2023 season spent in Japan with the Seibu Lions.  Tinoco first arrived in South Beach after being dealt from Colorado in August 2020, and Miami then claimed Tinoco off waivers from the Cubs in July 2024.

Fifty-one of Tinoco’s 126 2/3 career Major League innings have come in a Marlins uniform, and he has a 3.00 ERA over his time with the Fish.  The numbers were even better before Tinoco posted a 5.12 ERA over 19 1/3 frames last year, and is fair to assume that he was never himself following an IL stint due to a back injury, and then a forearm strain that shut him down at the start of June.

Tinoco has a 3.98 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate, and 11.3% walk rate over his big league career.  His 2024 campaign was his most promising performance, as he had a 3.32 ERA, 25.9K%, and 7.4BB% in 40 2/3 innings despite bouncing around to three different teams over the course of the season.  The drop in walk rate was a particularly good development, as Tinoco had previously struggled with his control in the majors and at times during his minor league career.

Tinoco relies on his slider and sinker as his primary offerings, and doesn’t make much use of his traditional four-seam fastball (which has mid-90’s velocity).  It is an open question how Tinoco’s repertoire might develop once he returns to the mound in what will be his age-32 season, as Tinoco turns 31 this coming April.

Reds Sign Garrett Hampson, Josh Staumont, Brandon Leibrandt To Minors Contracts

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The Reds signed utilityman Garrett Hampson, right-hander Josh Staumont, and left-hander Brandon Leibrandt to minor league deals in December, as per each player’s official MLB.com profile page.  Hampson’s deal was also announced today on the Reds’ official X feed, with the added detail that Hampson has been invited to the club’s big league Spring Training camp.

This is Hampson’s second go-around in Cincinnati, after appearing in nine games for the team in 2025.  Hampson began the season on a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks and made the Opening Day roster, but was then released in May.  Cincinnati inked Hampson to a MLB deal a few days later but designated the utilityman near the end of June, with the Cardinals then claiming Hampson away on waivers.  Hampson has been a free agent since he was DFA’ed again and then released by St. Louis in September.

Over 62 games and 91 plate appearances spread out over his three teams, Hampson hit just .143/.250/.169.  It was a tough showing even for a player who carried a modest .240/.301/.362 career slash line into the 2025 season, though Hampson’s versatility has been far more important than his bat in carving out an eight-year MLB career.  Hampson has played at least eight games at every position on the diamond besides catcher, with the bulk of his coming as a second baseman and center fielder.  Even over just those nine previous games with the Reds, Hampson appeared at second base, third base, shortstop, and center field.

Cincinnati already has a number of multi-position players on the roster, so Hampson may have a tricky time winning a spot on the Reds’ roster.  Hampson is also out of minor league options, while Staumont has one option year remaining and Leibrandt has two.

Staumont is back for what is technically his second season with the Reds, though a preseason injury kept Staumont from getting any game action in either the majors or minors.  Staumont had pitched in each of the previous six big league seasons, posting a 3.97 ERA over 192 2/3 innings with the Royals and Twins.  Once a key leverage reliever and potential future closer for Kansas City, Staumont’s production started to drop off in 2022 as injuries impacted his career, culminating in a thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2023.

After averaging 98 mph on his fastball in 2020, Staumont’s velo dropped to 94.3mph by the 2024 season, and his strikeout numbers also sharply dropped off.  Control had been an issue for Staumont even in his best years, so it is anyone’s guess as to how he’ll now look entering his age-32 season and after a full year away from pitching.  The Reds already have first-hand knowledge of Staumont’s health situation, however, and a minors deals represents no risk for the team in bringing Staumont to camp and seeing what can still contribute.

Leibrandt is yet another former Red, as he posted a 9.95 ERA over 6 1/3 innings (two appearances) for the team in 2024.  This brief stint and five games (nine IP) with the Marlins in 2020 represent Leibrandt’s entire MLB resume, and the rest of his career has seen the southpaw pitch in the minors, with independent league teams, and with the Chinese Professional Baseball League’s CTBC Brothers in 2025.

Leibrandt had good results over approximately half a season in the CPBL, posting a 1.94 ERA and 5.37% walk rate over 83 1/3 innings with the Brothers, albeit with a 16.45% strikeout rate.  This was enough to get Cincinnati’s attention for another contract, and Leibrandt figures to act as Triple-A rotation depth.

Details Of Red Sox’ Pursuit Of Alex Bregman

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2:19pm: Cotillo reports that Boston’s offer to Bregman was for five years and $165MM with significant deferrals.

2:09pm: Alex Bregman is headed to Chicago after landing with the Cubs on a five-year, $175MM contract that was first reported last night. That’s a crushing blow for the Red Sox, who were long reported to be prioritizing a reunion with Bregman after he opted out of the final two years and $80MM on his contract with the club back in November. In the aftermath of Bregman’s departure, reports out of Boston are shedding some light on the efforts the Red Sox made to retain their All-Star, and where that offer ultimately fell short.

According to a report from The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham last night, the Red Sox “did not come close financially and were not willing to give Bregman a full no-trade clause, which the Cubs did.” Today, reporting from Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive confirmed that the Red Sox were unwilling to offer Bregman a no-trade clause and added that the team cited “organizational policy” regarding no-trade protection in doing so. That, McAdam writes, “proved to be a sticking point” for Bregman, who has young children and values stability for them as he heads into his third consecutive year in a new city.

As for the financials, McAdam writes that the five-year offer from Boston was “reasonably competitive,” but added that it fell short of Chicago’s offer financially. Like the Cubs’ offer, which includes $70MM in deferred money, the Red Sox offer also included significant deferrals. Those deferred payments were scheduled out differently, however, as McAdam notes that the Red Sox proposed a payment plan “stretching out decades.” The exact payment details of Chicago’s offer aren’t yet known, McAdam notes that the decades-long payment structure Boston offered widened the gap between the two offers and reduced the value of the Red Sox’ offer further than the already-lower sticker price, relative to the Cubs’ offer.

Exactly how the two offers stack up will be easier to judge once more details come out about Bregman’s contract details in Chicago, but in any case it seems the offer that the Red Sox reportedly considered “aggressive” came up well short of what Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office managed to put together. As a result, the Red Sox will have to turn elsewhere in their search for another middle-of-the-order bat for their infield. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was among the reports to suggest in the aftermath of Bregman’s signing that the other top infielder on the market, shortstop Bo Bichette, could be the player they pivot to. Bichette figures to sign for even more than Bregman, did, however; MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $208MM contract for the infielder at the outset of the offseason.

Some of that, of course, has to do with the contract length. Perhaps an eight-year deal for Bichette, which would run through his age-35 season, would be just as or even more appealing to the Red Sox than signing Bregman through his age-36 season on a five year deal. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that this Red Sox front office has not yet given out a contract longer than three years via free agency. If the team has an aversion to long-term deals more generally, it would be difficult for the Red Sox to outbid rival suitors for Bichette like the Phillies and Yankees that have no qualms about signing free agents to lengthy contracts.

If the Red Sox aren’t willing to splurge on Bichette, the pickings for replacement Bregman become a lot slimmer. Eugenio Suarez offers big power and could be a fit on a shorter-term deal in free agency, but he struggled in the second half last year, will play this year at 34 years old, and is a lackluster defender at the hot corner. Turning to the trade market, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reportedly shortly before the new year that the Red Sox had narrowed their focus to five infield options: Bregman, Bichette, Ketel Marte, Isaac Paredes, and Brendan Donovan. With Bregman now in Chicago and Marte having been officially taken off the market by Arizona, that leaves Paredes and Donovan as the two primary alternatives to Bichette in that report.

Of the two, Paredes seems to be the better fit. Both are controlled for two seasons after this one, but Paredes is a right-handed hitter who seems likely to cost less in trade than Donovan. While Paredes has been pushed out of the Astros’ nominal starting lineup by the addition of Carlos Correa over the summer, Donovan’s market is known to have many suitors including the Giants, Mariners, and Royals. What’s more, Paredes is a right-handed hitter who primarily plays third base, making him a much cleaner replacement for Bregman than Donovan, a lefty hitter who has played all over the field but primarily plays second base. Paredes is also a marginally better hitter over the last four seasons (124 wRC+ vs 119) coming off a stronger platform season (128 wRC+ vs 119). Paredes (hamstring injury) and Donovan (sports hernia surgery) both ended their seasons with injury complications but are expected to be full-go for Spring Training next month.

Of course, it’s possible the club could look at other options now that their preferred targets have begun to dwindle. The Cubs, themselves, now have a surplus of infield talent after bringing in Bregman displaced Matt Shaw at third base. Adding another unproven youngster to a very young Red Sox roster likely wouldn’t be especially appealing, but Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner has garnered trade interest this winter and could be more available now that Bregman has freed up Shaw to take over the keystone following a hypothetical Hoerner trade. An elite defender at second base who has also posted strong grades at shortstop in the past, Hoerner is a well-regarded clubhouse presence who could help fill the leadership void created by the loss of Bregman.

With that said, his 109 wRC+ last year was a career-high, and his lack of power is unlikely to be especially attractive to a team like the Red Sox that finished middle-of-the-pack in homers last year and expressed an interest in bringing in a big-time slugger like Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso earlier this winter in hopes of improving that area of the offense. It’s also an open question as to whether the Cubs would even be especially inclined to deal Hoerner, as an infield of Bregman, Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Michael Busch would be among the strongest in baseball headed into 2026. What’s more, Hoerner is slated to hit free agency following the 2026 campaign and the Red Sox may prefer to add a player under longer-term control for fear of finding themselves in this same predicament again next year.

Reds To Sign Pierce Johnson

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Right-hander Pierce Johnson is headed to the Reds, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The details of the contract are not yet known.

Johnson, 34, was a first-round pick all the way back in 2012. He made his big league debut in 2017 but didn’t stick in the majors right away and eventually headed to Japan in 2019 to pitch for the Hanshin Tigers. The result was a dominant 1.38 ERA over 58 2/3 innings of work in NPB, and Johnson then returned to the majors in 2020 and posted strong numbers overall across three seasons with the Padres.

Missing most of the 2022 campaign due to injury, however, put Johnson in an awkward position entering free agency following the year. He caught on with the Rockies and struggled badly, posting a 6.00 ERA during his time in Colorado, but was still an attractive enough target to be dealt to the Braves at the trade deadline. Upon arriving in Atlanta, he looked like a different pitcher, turning in a a 0.76 ERA, 36% strikeout rate, and 5.4% walk rate across 24 appearances down the stretch for the Braves.

It was a performance so impressive that Atlanta chose to extend Johnson on a fresh two-year deal that guaranteed him $14.25MM, including a $7MM buyout on a $250K club option for the 2026 season. Johnson pitched solidly over the next two years with the Braves, posting a 3.36 ERA and 3.77 FIP overall across 115 1/3 innings, but he was unable to carry over the pinpoint command he had flashed down the stretch in 2023. His peripherals declined, culminating in the righty striking out just 24.8% of his opponents this past year, and the Braves ultimately moved on this offseason without picking up his option.

Now headed into his age-35 season, Johnson will join a Reds team that managed to squeak into the playoffs last year and has its sights set on doing so again in 2026. After re-signing Emilio Pagan to serve as the club’s closer, Cincinnati has continued to retool its bullpen by adding Caleb Ferguson and now Johnson. That trio should be joined by Tony Santillan to make a formidable late inning relief corps for the Reds, while former starters like Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips should provide plenty of upside now that they’ve moved to the bullpen as well. With a stacked rotation led by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, Terry Francona’s pitching staff looks solid headed into the season.

The question for the Reds headed into 2026 is mostly focused around the club’s lineup. While Elly De La Cruz is a budding superstar and players like TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer have proven themselves to be quality role players, it’s hard to know if the Reds’ lineup will produce enough on offense to carry them back to October this year. Players like Noelvi Marte and Matt McLain have shown great promise in the past, but have also struggled badly at times. Reclamation projects JJ Bleday and Ke’Bryan Hayes come with plenty of upside, but just as much risk. If the Reds have more planned this offseason after adding Johnson, it seems fair to suggest that adding more to the lineup would be the best way to improve the roster, whether that’s through free agency or perhaps a trade of someone like right-hander Brady Singer, who has been occasionally speculated on as a possible trade candidate this winter.

Padres Interested In Adding Starting Pitcher

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Even after adding Michael King back to their rotation last month, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Padres are hoping to add another starter before the season begins. With that being said, however, it appears no deal is particularly imminent. Rosenthal and Sammon go on to write that the club has indicated to multiple players’ agents around the league that they “are not yet ready to move” on the pitching market.

Rosenthal and Sammon suggest that the Padres could be holding off on making an addition in order to clear money off the books with another move, such as a trade of Nick Pivetta. There’s certainly reason to wonder if that might be the case. RosterResource estimates San Diego’s 2026 payroll at $220MM, a modest increase over last year’s $211MM figure. For luxury tax purposes, this year’s $262MM is virtually identical to 2025’s $263MM figure. There’s been no indication to this point that the club is willing to scale it’s payroll up substantially from last year’s numbers, and signing even a mid-rotation free agent like Lucas Giolito or Chris Bassitt could cost somewhere between $15MM and $20MM in terms of annual salary. Dealing Pivetta and his $20.5MM salary could, in theory, allow the Padres to sign a starter in free agency using that money while also recouping either a young starter or help for another area of the roster as part of the return package for Pivetta’s services.

The team shopping Pivetta would certainly be a logical reason for the team to hold off on signing a starter, and the team was known to be discussing a deal with the Mets last month and that Pivetta was one of the players involved in those discussions. Of course, Ramon Laureano, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada were among the many names brought up in those negotiations. That deal never ended up coming to fruition, and The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this week that talks regarding Miller, specifically “went nowhere.” That’s not a shock, given the massive price the Padres paid to acquire Miller just a few months ago. It’s hardly impossible that the Mets and Padres could still get together on a Pivetta trade that doesn’t involve Miller, though, and it’s certainly possible other teams looking for rotation help (such as the Yankees) could be intrigued by the right-hander as well.

Looking to clear salary isn’t the only plausible reason for the team to be waiting on making a rotation addition. Another possibility could be that they’re simply waiting for asking prices to drop. The club signed Pivetta in mid-February last year, with Spring Training fast approaching as players still on the market feeling pressure to sign. That allowed to land him on a creative four-year, $55MM deal that may not have been possible earlier in the winter. Waiting to see how the market develops could be particularly prudent if the Padres are intrigued by a player like Zac Gallen, who falls into a similar tier of the free agent market this year as Pivetta did last year.

It could also make sense if the club is hoping to add a starter from the lower tiers of the market on a relatively small guarantee. As teams fill out their rotations ahead of Spring Training, perhaps stragglers on the market would be especially attracted to the promise of a wide-open lane to secure a rotation spot in San Diego. Bounce-back candidates like Walker Buehler, Erick Fedde, and Jordan Montgomery are among the many pitchers who that sort of approach could make sense for.

GM Mike Hazen Discusses Diamondbacks’ Remaining Offseason Goals

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Ketel Marte is officially off the market, but even if the Diamondbacks aren’t swinging a big trade this winter they still have plenty of work to do. The team’s biggest move of the offseason has been reuniting with Merrill Kelly in free agency. They’ve also signed right-hander Michael Soroka and catcher James McCann to one-year deals while shipping lefty Kyle Backhus and outfielder Jake McCarthy out in trades.

Those relatively small moves aren’t the end of the team’s offseason maneuvers, as general manager Mike Hazen told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that he would like to bolster the pitching staff and also add “a couple of bats” to the offense. More specifically, Hazen said that he is “still in the process of trying to add to our pitching staff. Bullpen, starting, whether it’s depth, whether it’s jumping into the rotation is still the main area of focus.” Those comments are obviously broad, and leave open plenty of avenues for improving the roster.

Arizona’s 2025 rotation was below-average overall amid injury woes and nearly across-the-board underperformance. Despite pitching the third-most innings of any rotation, the group’s 9.0 fWAR ranked 21st in the league. Staff ace Corbin Burnes had a 2.66 ERA in 64 1/3 innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. He’ll miss most, if not all, of the 2026 season but remains under contract through 2030. Losing Burnes wouldn’t have been quite so disastrous had righty Zac Gallen remained a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm after being demoted to the #2 spot behind Burnes, but that didn’t come to pass. Gallen was healthy all season but posted a 4.83 ERA and allowed the third-most home runs of any starter in the league with 31. He’s now a free agent, and a reunion between the sides seems unlikely.

Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez, meanwhile, both remain under club control but had similar struggles with run prevention and long balls, as both finished the year with ERAs north of 5.00. Rodriguez is guaranteed $46MM over the next two seasons (including a $6MM buyout on a 2027 mutual option), while Pfaadt is entering the first year of his five-year, $45MM extension with the team. Ryne Nelson looked good after moving into the rotation in May and is controlled via arbitration through 2028. Kelly actually led the rotation with 2.3 fWAR, despite spending the back half of the season with the Rangers after a deadline trade. Even with him re-installed on a two-year deal, the downgrade from Gallen to Soroka and Burnes’s uncertain status combine to leave the rotation looking much thinner than it did a year ago.

Vague as Hazen was about his specific plans for the pitching staff, adding another starter seems like a worthwhile endeavor. Kelly and Nelson currently project as the rotation’s top two starters, but on most contending teams would surely fit in closer to the middle of the rotation. Pfaadt and Rodriguez are both coming off the sort of brutal season from a results perspective that makes it hard to count on them for more than back-of-the-rotation innings eating, while Soroka was signed to be a starter but has long performed better when used out of the bullpen and last pitched more than 100 innings in 2019.

The main hurdle to another rotation signing is the payroll. RosterResource has the Diamondbacks at $166MM in payroll right now. That’s down from $188MM in 2025, but principal owner Ken Kendrick has indicated a desire to spend less on payroll this year. It’s unclear what the team’s exact payroll limitations are, but it’s hard to imagine the team finding room in the budget for an impact free agent starter like Ranger Suarez (or even a reunion with Gallen) without extending themselves. Perhaps the trade market, where players like Freddy Peralta and Kodai Senga could be available, would make for a better path towards bringing in pitching help if the team wants to pursue a starter.

If the team is going to focus on free agency, however, adding to the bullpen might make more sense. As much as the rotation struggled throughout parts of 2025, things were even worse in the relief corps. The club’s 4.82 bullpen ERA was the fourth-worst figure in all of baseball last year. Much of those struggles can be attributed to losing top relievers Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk for most of the season, but both underwent Tommy John surgery in June and will join Burnes in missing at least the first half of the season and potentially all of it. That leaves the team without much continuity or reliability in the bullpen headed into 2026. Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel will return, with the former coming off a decent season while the latter struggled badly but has the track record to bounce back. The top returning reliever is lefty Andrew Saalfrank, who put up a dazzling 1.24 ERA in 29 innings last year but is unlikely to repeat that performance considering his meager 16.8% strikeout rate.

There’s a number of interesting young arms on the team’s 40-man roster, but the Diamondbacks bullpen could clearly use an established late-inning arm to help stabilize things while Martinez and Puk are on the shelf. Hazen didn’t name specific targets in his recent comments, but it seems Arizona is interested in just that sort of player given the club’s interest in Pete Fairbanks before he landed in Miami last month. Seranthony Dominguez is the top relief arm still available in free agency and would make plenty of sense in the desert. If his contract ends up being too rich for their tastes, other options like Pierce Johnson, Michael Kopech, and Danny Coulombe also remain available in a relief market that’s seen most of the high-leverage options picked over in the early months of the winter.

Turning to the offense, Weiner suggests that the Diamondbacks’ pursuit of help on offense could be focused more on adding platoon players rather than everyday regulars. Between the team’s limited financial flexibility and the players already available on the roster, that’s an understandable course to take. Pavin Smith has spent most of his career as a platoon bat, and getting a right-handed complement at first base seems like an obvious addition. Diamondbacks legend and likely future Hall of Famer Paul Goldschmidt is on the market and would fit that bill, as would Rhys Hoskins. Lower level options for that role in free agency include Connor Joe and Ty France. A right-handed hitting outfielder to platoon with Alek Thomas and take occasional reps at DH could also be valuable. Someone like Miguel Andujar, Chas McCormick, or perhaps even old friend Randal Grichuk could make some sense in that role. One other intriguing option would be switch-hitting super utility man Willi Castro, who could serve as a reserve outfield option while also backing up youngster Jordan Lawlar at third base.

Cubs To Sign Alex Bregman

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January 11: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that $70MM of Bregman’s $175MM contract is deferred. Rosenthal adds that the deal is expected to fall into the $30MM to $31MM range in terms of average annual value after factoring in the deferrals.  This is a notable departure for the Ricketts family in recent free agent negotiations.

January 10: With most of Chicago focused on the Cardiac Bears Saturday night, the Cubs attempted to steal a little bit of the spotlight by agreeing to a five-year, $175MM contract with free agent Alex Bregman.  In doing so, the Cubs land MLBTR’s fifth-ranked free agent to take over at the hot corner.

Bregman, a client of the Boras Corporation, bests the contract offers he received last offseason.  His new contract, the third-largest in Cubs history, includes a full no-trade clause but lacks opt-outs. The deal also includes significant deferred money.

When last offseason’s proposals fell short of Bregman’s expectations, he pivoted to a heavily-deferred three-year, $120MM deal with the Red Sox.  The quality of his 2025 season, plus his ineligibility for a qualifying offer this time around, led to this long-term deal.

MLBTR projected a six-year, $160MM contract for Bregman back in November.  He ultimately landed a bit shy of that on a five-year term, when accounting for deferrals.  It’s still the largest average annual value in Cubs franchise history.

For the Cubs, the addition of Bregman is the biggest splash in an active offseason. The club acquired young starter Edward Cabrera from the Marlins three days ago, adding upside to the rotation at the expense of a top-50 prospect in Owen Caissie. The Cubs have largely rebuilt their bullpen with a quintet of free agent signings: Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb.  They also retained swingman Colin Rea and starter Shota Imanaga.

Bregman gives the Cubs a major offensive upgrade without the loss of a draft pick, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in 2024. His salary brings the team’s projected 2026 payroll to $231MM, a full $25MM over last year’s $206MM figure, according to RosterResource. Meanwhile, their CBT payroll stands around $243MM for 2026, putting the Cubs just shy of the first luxury tax threshold.  The Cubs did not exceed the CBT in 2025, so they’ll reside in the lightest tax bracket if they go over in ’26.

Bregman, 31, played in 114 games with Boston this year, making 495 plate appearances. Although he missed a month and a half with a right quad strain, he continued to excel on offense, batting .273/.360/.462 and grading out 25% better than average by wRC+. After posting a career-low 6.9% walk rate in his final year with the Astros, Bregman bumped that up to 10.3% in 2025. He maintained his reputation as a high-contact hitter, with his 14.1% strikeout rate grading out in the 88th percentile. His 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 44.4% hard-hit rate were both career bests. He also continued to perform well defensively, earning 3 Outs Above Average for his work at third base. Overall, Bregman’s 2025 contributions were good for 3.5 fWAR and his third career All-Star nomination.

A lot of that came from his red-hot first two months. At the time of his injury, Bregman had a 156 wRC+ through 226 PA. His production following his return was more uneven. He posted a 128 wRC+ in July, followed by a 108 wRC+ in August and just a 76 wRC+ in September. In the first half, Bregman was 52% better than average by wRC+. In the second half, he was right around average.

Though he wasn’t his usual self in the last two months of the year, Bregman’s lengthy track record still made him one of the top free agents in this year’s class. Since debuting with the Astros in 2016, he has batted .272/.365/.481 with 209 home runs and a 133 wRC+. His first two All-Star appearances came in 2018-19. Bregman averaged 8.1 fWAR and finished in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting in both years, finishing as the runner-up in 2019.

While he hasn’t reached those heights in the years since, Bregman has still been a well-above-average hitter. He has posted a wRC+ between 117 and 137 in every year from 2020-25. Bregman’s defense has also held firm. Since the start of 2020, he has been worth 10 DRS and 17 OAA. He ranks eighth among qualified third basemen in that span by OAA.

That track record, Bregman’s excellent clubhouse reputation, and his still-excellent 2025 drew ample interest in free agency. The Red Sox were clearly keen on a reunion, with recent reports indicating they had made him an “aggressive” offer. Outside of them and the Cubs, his known suitors included the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays (before they signed Kazuma Okamoto). The Tigers and Cubs were interested in Bregman last offseason as well. Detroit reportedly offered him six years and $171.5MM, albeit with significant deferrals. Chicago’s offer was in the four-year, $115MM range. One year later, the Cubs put forth more than $40MM more to lock him up, even when considering the surprising deferred money.

Bregman likely sought a $200MM guarantee during the 2024-25 offseason.  He got to $215MM on paper in total, though deferred money on both contracts probably puts him a little short of a true $200MM.  Regardless, returning to the market after opting out of a short-term deal is a strategy we’ve seen Boras execute successfully with Bregman, Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Pete Alonso in recent years, with Cody Bellinger serving as the next test case.

With Bregman slotting in at third base, the most impacted player on the Cubs’ roster is incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw. As a rookie, Shaw posted a .226/.295/.394 line in 437 plate appearances, good for a 93 wRC+. Factoring in his serviceable defense (-1 DRS), Shaw was worth 1.5 fWAR in 2025. That was acceptable production for the rookie and former top prospect, though there are clear areas for improvement heading into his sophomore season. Shaw’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate ranked in the third and seventh percentiles, respectively. He also struggled against fastballs, with a -6 run value against sinkers and a -1 value against four-seamers.

Shaw came up through the system as a middle infielder before shifting to third base in earnest in 2024. At present, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner occupy the shortstop and second base spots on the big-league roster. Swanson is under contract through 2029 and won’t be moving off short any time soon. Hoerner has been an above-average hitter and excellent defender in the past four seasons, tallying 17.5 fWAR.  Hoerner moved to second base in 2023 in deference to Swanson.

With the 28-year-old Hoerner eligible for free agency after 2026 – with earning power likely to get a boost from his ability to play shortstop – his name has surfaced in trade rumors this winter.  The best 2026 Cubs team has Hoerner at second base and Shaw in a utility infield role, but it’s at least conceivable that either player could be dealt this offseason.

For Red Sox fans, the past seven months have provided a painful sequence of events at third base.  Rafael Devers was dealt to the Giants in a surprise June blockbuster, and now Bregman has departed as well.  According to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox “did not come close financially and were not willing to give Bregman a full no-trade clause.”

The Red Sox, the only team yet to have signed a Major League free agent this winter, could turn to Bo Bichette to play second base.  Bichette will likely require a long-term deal of his own, however, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has yet to sign a free agent for more than Bregman’s three years (which only lasted one).

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first broke news of the signing, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan adding terms and Bob Nightengale of USA Today providing further details. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the deal includes deferred money.

Dodgers To Sign Andy Ibáñez

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Jan. 10: Ibáñez’s deal is for $1.2MM, according to Romero. He can also earn up to $100k in performance bonuses.

Jan. 9: The Dodgers have signed infielder Andy Ibáñez to a major league deal, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR. The salary has not yet been reported. The Dodgers have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this deal official. Ibáñez is represented by The Movement Baseball.

Ibáñez, 33 in April, was just non-tendered by the Tigers in November. He had spent three years with Detroit in a utility role. He got into 304 games over that span, stepping to the plate 820 times. He produced a combined batting line of .251/.304/.392, which translated to a wRC+ of 93. While that offense was a bit below average, Ibáñez provided a lot of defensive versatility. He played all four infield spots as well as the outfield corners.

That wasn’t enough to keep him in Detroit for 2026. He exhausted his final option year in 2025, meaning he will be out of options going forward. He had qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player. The Tigers paid him $1.4MM in 2025. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $1.8MM this year but Detroit didn’t tender him a contract, sending him to free agency instead.

The Dodgers have a relatively older infield group. Shortstop Mookie Betts is 33 years old and was a full-time outfielder not long ago. 36-year-old Freddie Freeman is at first base and 35-year-old Max Muncy is at the other corner. Getting a semi rest day in the designated hitter slot isn’t really an option thanks to the presence of Shohei Ohtani.

Second base is a bit more fluid. Tommy Edman, Hyeseong Kim, Miguel Rojas and Alex Freeland are options for that spot. Rojas will be turning 37 years old soon. Edman isn’t quite as old, turning 31 in May, but is coming off ankle surgery. Kim can play other positions around the diamond. Freeland is a notable prospect for the club and still optionable, so perhaps it makes sense for him to be getting regular playing time in Triple-A if he doesn’t have an everyday job in the majors.

Ibáñez will give the club another multi-positional guy on the bench who can bounce around as needed, depending on who else is healthy and producing. If he has a good season with the Dodgers, he can be retained beyond 2026 via arbitration. Rojas has already said that he will retire after this year, so that’ll be one less guy in the mix for 2027 and beyond. Muncy is also slated for free agency a season from now but the Dodgers will presumably come up with some plan for third base in the next year, whether that’s bringing back Muncy or some alternative.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images

Reds Sign Michael Toglia To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have added first baseman Michael Toglia on a minor league deal, according to his MLB transactions log. The 27-year-old was non-tendered by the Rockies in late November. Toglia split the 2025 season between Triple-A and the majors.

Toglia had the makings of a viable three-true-outcomes bat following the 2024 campaign. He popped 25 home runs in 116 games while walking at a strong 11.8% clip. The power and patience came with a 32.1% strikeout rate, but the end result was a passable 98 wRC+. Toglia’s shaky contact skills cratered to begin this past season. He posted a 39.1% strikeout rate in the first two months of the year, earning a demotion. He bounced up and down between the big-league club and the Isotopes for the rest of the season.

Colorado took Toglia in the first round of the 2019 draft. He flashed big power at every level of the minors, though it came with concerning swing-and-miss tendencies. Toglia debuted with the club in 2022, playing sparingly that season and the next. He totaled six home runs over his first 76 games. The 2024 breakout was closer to what Toglia had shown in the minors, particularly with the free passes. He had a walk rate of at least 12% at every minor league stop before his promotion. It hadn’t reached 8% in his first two MLB stints.

Toglia has shown the ability to do real damage when he makes contact. He ranked in the 98th percentile in barrel rate and the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2024. The contact just hasn’t come consistently enough. Toglia’s had a whiff rate above 33% in all four MLB seasons. He had the fourth-lowest contact rate among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances last year.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

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