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Quick Hits: Schedule, Twins, A’s, Minor League Pay

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The Nationals and Yankees are tentatively scheduled to play on July 23, according to Joel Sherman and Andrew Marchand of the New York Post, which would make for a big Max Scherzer vs. Gerrit Cole pitching matchup to highlight Opening Day.  It might still be at least a week or two before the 2020 schedule is officially finalized, however, as the league is still considering a number of factors, chief among them coronavirus outbreaks around the United States.  “Better, the league believes, to take its time, see how the [COVID-19] testing of personnel goes this week and the preferences expressed in feedback from clubs,” Sherman and Marchand write.  “So the current schedule can change drastically and, if it does, the union will have to provide its blessing again.”

More from around baseball…

  • Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to submit their initial 60-man player pool, and details are already beginning to emerge about which players may or may not be included.  The Twins’ taxi squad will include top prospects Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Brent Rooker,  SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson tweets.  Caleb Thielbar, who rejoined Minnesota on a minors contract last winter, is also expected to be on taxi squad duty.
  • The Athletics will initially split their player pool into two groups, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, with much of the big league roster training in Oakland and the taxi squad potentially training in nearby Stockton — the home of the Athletics’ Class-A affiliate — if a deal can be finalized with Stockton city officials.  Offseason minor league signings Ryan Goins, Carlos Perez, Jordan Weems, and Lucas Luetge will all be in Oakland, while taxi squad players include such notable prospects as Tyler Soderstrom, Daulton Jefferies, Nick Allen, Dustin Fowler and (as per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez) Robert Puason.
  • Slusser also provides updates on some Athletics players who were battling injuries during the spring but are now on track to be ready for Opening Day.  A.J. Puk “has been throwing bullpen sessions for months” following a shoulder strain in the spring, and looks to be ready to begin the season in Oakland’s rotation.  Right-hander Daniel Mengden is also ready to be part of the pitching mix after recovering from arthroscopic elbow surgery in February.  After being sidelined with an intercostal strain during Spring Training, Stephen Piscotty said he is now “100 percent with no limitations.”
  • The Rays and Rangers are the latest teams to commit to paying their minor leaguers through the end of July, as respectively reported by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.  Minor leaguers in each organization will continue to receive their $400 weekly stipends for at least another month.

Why The Twins Could Trade A Slugger This Winter

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While some clubs have struggled to find continuity in their outfield — the Cardinals, Padres and Blue Jays come to mind — the Twins have enjoyed a rather reliable trio in recent years. True, injuries to Byron Buxton have frequently held him out of the lineup, but the general expectation over the past three to four seasons has been that Buxton would be flanked by left fielder Eddie Rosario and right fielder Max Kepler. Since 2016, Rosario ranks fourth among MLB left fielders in innings. Kepler ranks seventh in right-field innings. Both would likely rank higher on those leaderboards were it not for occasional stints manning center field while Buxton mended from injuries.

And yet, as much of the team’s young core has been locked up on long-term deals — Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano are now all signed through at least 2023 — Rosario finds himself nearing free agency. The 27-year-old slugger agreed to a $7.75MM salary this winter and is controlled through 2021. There have reportedly been some talks between the two sides in recent years, but nothing has come together. Other key members of the Twins core remain unsigned (e.g. Buxton, Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers) but are controlled an additional year beyond Rosario.

Moreover, the Twins now find themselves with a pair of corner prospects pushing for a spot in the big leagues sooner than later. Former first-round picks Alex Kirilloff (2016) and Trevor Larnach (2018) both rank comfortably among the game’s best overall prospects and both found success in Double-A in 2019. The former returned from a wrist injury to hit .283/.343/.413 (121 wRC+) through 411 plate appearances, while the latter hit .295/.387/.455 in 181 PAs — good for a 148 wRC+ that was an exact match for his mark through 361 PAs in Class-A Advanced.

Both Kirilloff (No. 9 overall on Keith Law’s prospect rankings at The Athletic) and Larnach (No. 45 at Baseball America) are 22-year-old corner outfielders with bats that have been deemed close to MLB-ready. Both would’ve likely advanced to Triple-A in 2020 had the season begun under normal circumstances, and it’d be reasonable to think that either could’ve made his MLB debut this year. Each notched an OPS north of 1.100 during brief Spring Training showings (30 PAs for Larnach, 22 for Kirilloff). Beyond that pairing, Brent Rooker posted a 139 wRC+ in Triple-A last year. He’s not as highly regarded and may be more of a first base or DH type in the long run, but Rooker’s been playing left field regularly since being drafted 35th overall in 2017.

It’s unlikely that any of those prospects would’ve been plugged directly into the Major League lineup to begin the season under any circumstance, but it’s nevertheless notable that Rosario’s name crept up in trade rumblings this winter. Had a deal come together, the Twins could’ve added a one-year stopgap, turned to Marwin Gonzalez as a primary outfielder and/or given Jake Cave an opportunity to establish himself.  As it turned out, retaining Rosario only left the club with enhanced depth.

At some point in the near future, the Twins will have to ask whether they’re better off paying Rosario another raise in arbitration — though it remains to be seen how much of an increase he’ll get over his current salary next time — or whether some combination of Kirilloff, Larnach, Cave and Rooker can provide similar or greater value at a fraction of the price. Minnesota only has $55.5MM on the 2021 books as of this writing, so it’s not as if payroll is an immediate issue, but Rosario’s game isn’t without its flaws, either.

A former high-end prospect himself, Rosario has never demonstrated much plate discipline, but his swing-happy tendencies revved up to new levels last year. Jeff McNeil was the only qualified hitter in the Majors last year who swung at a higher percentage of pitches than Rosario’s 59.1 (although he didn’t chase out of the zone nearly as much as Rosario and had a markedly better contact rate on pitches in the zone). On top of that, only three qualified hitters chased balls out of the zone more than Rosario.

To his credit, Rosario has greatly improved his bat-to-ball skills, cutting his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in 2016 to 14.6 percent in 2019. But Rosario’s penchant for swinging at pitches out of the zone leads to far more weak contact than one would expect from a player who hit 32 home runs in 2019. His 89.1 mph average exit velocity ranked 123rd of 250 qualified hitters, per Statcast, and his 36 percent hard-hit rate ranked 166th in that same grouping. Despite his clear power, Rosario hasn’t ranked higher than the 34th percentile of big league hitters in terms of hard-hit rate in any of the past four seasons. His expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) has hovered around league average or a bit below.

This isn’t intended as a piece meant to disparage Rosario, who has proven himself to be a useful corner outfielder. He’s averaged 27.6 homers over the past three seasons, ranks seventh in the Majors in outfield assists in that time and, with the exception of a 2019 season during which he played through a notable ankle injury, he’s graded out as a reliable and at times well-above-average defender.

A rangy left fielder with a strong arm, consistently solid batting averages and 25- to 30-homer pop is a fine player — even if he comes with some on-base deficiencies. But when corner outfield options are typically plentiful in free agency and there are a pair of top-tier prospects looming in the upper minors, it’s easy to see the front office debating Rosario’s future. Rosario isn’t going to fetch a top-of-the-rotation arm in a trade given his rising price, questionable OBP and waning club control, but the Twins will still surely ponder whether their resources can be better allotted elsewhere soon — if they haven’t already.

Some may argue that Buxton or even Kepler are the better pieces for the Twins to consider moving from the current outfield group. But Buxton’s 80-grade glove and speed are harder to replace, and he’s controlled an additional year while currently earning less than half of Rosario’s salary. In terms of ceiling, he’s the highest of the bunch even in spite of his frequent injuries. Kepler’s extension, meanwhile, allows the Twins to control him for another five years and $38MM — the final season of which is a $10MM club option.

The alternative, of course, is to eventually look to package some of the aforementioned young talent to address other areas of need — likely high-end rotation help. The Twins’ offseason quest to bolster the starting staff ended up with more quantity-over-quality outcome than many expected, as the club missed on its top targets and instead pivoted to a surprising four-year deal with Josh Donaldson. Part of the reason they weren’t able to add an impact starter was the simple fact that virtually none were available in trade, but that could change down the road.

With three former top 40 picks thriving in the upper minors, two of them top 100 picks, and a long-entrenched mix of quality regulars at the MLB level, it seems inevitable that Minnesota’s outfield depth will undergo some form of reshaping in the near future. (None of this even mentions 2017 No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis — a shortstop who some feel is destined to end up in center field instead.) Of course, this is the type of logjam that rebuilding clubs look forward to eventually trying to manage, and it serves as a reminder that despite their current lack of prototypical “ace,” the Twins are well-positioned for another run of competitive years in the American League Central.

Brandon Nimmo, Eddie Rosario Reportedly Being Discussed In Trade Talks

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While it was overshadowed entirely by a much bigger move, last night’s swap of Nomar Mazara from the Rangers to the White Sox also represented a notable bit of action in the outfield market. The landscape hasn’t changed much since the start of the offseason but could begin to come into focus now that the biggest starting pitching moves have been made.

It seems the Mets are still working things out in their outfield situation. Word is that they’re willing to consider parting with Brandon Nimmo, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). The New York org is reportedly still kicking around concepts with the Pirates regarding Starling Marte, one of the market’s top trade candidates. Some potential trade scenarios could involve the younger, cheaper, and more controllable Nimmo. It’s not specifically clear whether Nimmo is otherwise open for bidding, but it seems the New York org is doing everything it can to land a true center fielder — even if it means parting with the left-handed-hitting OBP machine.

Meanwhile, the Twins are discussing Eddie Rosario with several other clubs, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The 28-year-old has been a mainstay in the Minnesota outfield but dipped a bit last year to a .276/.300/.500 batting line. He did launch 32 long balls and performed better in the on-base department in the prior two seasons. The Twins shouldn’t really need to move salary — Rosario is projected to earn $8.9MM with one more arb season to come — but may see an opportunity to pick up talent (especially in the pitching department) while reinvesting the payroll space and clearing the way for the near-term ascent of Alex Kirilloff.

The potential market for Rosario isn’t yet evident. The Marlins are among the teams with interest in Rosario, per Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio (via Twitter). But the Miami organization considers the Twins’ asking price “extremely high” at the moment. That was also the team’s stance with regard to Nomar Mazara, who ended up being dealt instead to the White Sox yesterday. The pursuit of Rosario and Mazara offers some insight into the thinking of the Miami organization. It seems obvious the organization is willing to take on a decent bit of salary and won’t limit itself to players with lengthy control rights. The club has a long-stated desire to add some corner pop and is also exploring the possibilities on the open market.

Details On The Twins’ Trade Deadline Talks

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Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo represented the sum total of the Twins’ midseason additions as the club tries to hold its lead atop the AL Central.  While Dyson and Romo address needs in the bullpen, Minnesota was also very aggressive in looking for starting pitching, though ultimately came up short in reinforcing the rotation.

Rival teams continually asked the Twins about top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, with the Mets among the multiple clubs who asking for both youngsters.  New York wanted both Lewis and Kiriloff in discussions about Noah Syndergaard, and if premium minor league talent wasn’t available for the ace, the Mets were also focused on adding Major League players, to the point of asking Minnesota about Byron Buxton in a possible Syndergaard deal.

Lewis and Kirilloff were also on the mind of the Blue Jays’ front office, as Toronto was looking for either of the prospects in exchange for Marcus Stroman.  Minnesota turned down this initial request, and The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the Jays never called back with any other offers before trading Stroman to the Mets.  This would seem to indicate that the Jays were only interested in Lewis and Kirilloff specifically, though Hayes writes that “the Twins were disappointed when Toronto didn’t give them a chance to match an offer they believed they could have outdone.”

Beyond the prospects, Hayes tweeted that Luis Arraez was “everyone’s favorite ask” amongst teams who were offering rental players to Minnesota.  Arraez has been a revelation for the Twins over his first 43 Major League games, as the rookie is hitting .349/.422/.445 over 166 plate appearances.  Arraez has long boasted strong averages and on-base numbers in the minors, and while regression is inevitable, his .361 xwOBA isn’t far off his .388 wOBA.  With this much potential, it isn’t hard to see why the Twins were reluctant to part with a 22-year-old, multi-positional talent for only a rental player (or potentially anyone).

Hayes reports that the Twins were considering both Robbie Ray and Mike Minor, though concerns about Ray’s durability and Minor’s July struggles diminished the interest.  On the relief front, the Twins also had interest in Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez.

“It was one of the most unique trade deadlines I’ve ever experienced,” Twins GM Thad Levine told Hayes and other reporters.  “One error I made was assuming that early in the trade cycle that the leverage was towards the seller.  I assumed that there was going to be a little bit of a shift of that see-saw back to the buyer as we got closer to the deadline. I’m not sure we ever saw the shift in the see-saw. The sellers felt pretty emboldened. They set the prices high, which is very normal in a trade deadline. But I’m not sure they moved off of those high asks at any point, and as a result, there were just a finite number of players that meaningfully changed the fortunes of playoff-contending teams.”

Early talks with the Giants involving multiple players (including Dyson, Madison Bumgarner, and Will Smith) did result in the late Dyson trade.  Minnesota and San Francisco re-engaged in talks just 45 minutes before the 3pm CT deadline, medicals on the four players in the deal were exchanged at 2:50pm, and the trade was finalized with just five minutes to spare.

Latest On Twins’ Pitching Pursuits

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Over the past few weeks, the Twins have reportedly pursued trades for several high-profile starters, including right-handers Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard. Stroman, whom the Mets acquired from the Blue Jays on Sunday, is no longer an option for the Twins. Syndergaard, now one of Stroman’s teammates, could still move by Wednesday’s deadline. It doesn’t appear he’s going to end up in Minnesota, though. The Twins have balked at the Mets’ asking price for Syndergaard after turning down the Blue Jays’ requests for Stroman, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports.

Toronto ultimately gave up Stroman for prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, two pitchers who do not rank among the game’s top 100 farmhands. On the other hand, the Blue Jays informed the Twins any Stroman trade “had to include” one of shortstop Royce Lewis or outfielder Alex Kirilloff, Neal writes. Lewis and Kirilloff are comfortably within baseball’s top 100 range, and they’re among a select few prospects the Twins may be wholly uninterested in trading for just about anyone.

The Mets, meanwhile, sought a return including center fielder Byron Buxton in their Syndergaard-related discussions with the Twins, according to Neal. Unsurprisingly, giving up Buxton was out of the question for the Twins, who have seen the 25-year-old blossom into a highly valuable member of their AL Central-leading roster. Buxton, moreover, is making just $1.75MM this season and under control via arbitration for the next three years.

Having struck out on Stroman and Syndergaard, the Twins are prepared to move on to relief pursuits, per Neal, who writes they “seem comfortable” with the starters they have. Statistically, their rotation – which consists of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez – has held its own this season.

Minnesota’s bullpen hasn’t been as successful as the team’s starters, and there has been no shortage of recent turnover in its relief corps with the deadline approaching. The Twins parted with Mike Morin, Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker after each racked up a solid number of innings for the club earlier in the season. Hoping to upgrade, the Twins acquired the established Sergio Romo from the Marlins on Saturday. It doesn’t appear chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager are going to stop there. They’ve talked to every MLB team with relievers to trade – including the previously reported Padres (Kirby Yates) and Blue Jays (Ken Giles and Daniel Hudson) – and Neal suggests those discussions are likely to continue.

Twins, Mets Have Discussed Noah Syndergaard

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The Twins and Mets have had discussions surrounding Noah Syndergaard since the Mets have made the right-hander available, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Minnesota has been linked to virtually every arm on the trade market — starter and reliever alike — so their inclusion in the Syndergaard bidding hardly comes as a shock. Nor is it surprising that Neal indicates that the Mets have focused in on top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff as potential headliners in a deal.

Lewis, 20, was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2017, and the shortstop entered the season ranked as a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He’s scuffled a bit in his first exposure to Class-A Advanced, hitting .243/.295/.384 through 410 plate appearances. Lewis, though, is still rather young for the Florida State League and is still generally regarded as a premier prospect, even if there’s a bit more of a divide on his status at the moment. Baseball America dipped Lewis to No. 21 on its latest update of the game’s top 100 minor leaguers, while Lewis resides at No. 2 over on Fangraphs’ latest update.

Kirilloff, 21, also entered the season regarded as one of the game’s 20 best prospects. He hasn’t replicated last season’s dominant numbers between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, but the outfielder has turned in a .284/.351/.403 slash in 261 plate appearances against older, more experienced competition with Double-A Pensacola.

The Twins have reportedly been loath to part with either Lewis or Kirilloff — the same has been true of top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol — although Syndergaard brings a different level of appeal to the table than most other arms known to be available. He’s controlled through the 2021 season (a year longer than Marcus Stroman or Mike Minor), has multiple dominant seasons on his resume (unlike Matthew Boyd), is still in arbitration as opposed to on a guaranteed contract (unlike Zack Greinke) and, despite a lackluster ERA on the season, offers some of the best raw stuff of any pitcher in baseball.

Syndergaard still averages 97.7 mph on his heater with a slider he can throw in the low 90s, and every club in baseball surely has its own ideas about how to restore his bottom-line results to their previous levels, which more closely aligned with his premium arsenal. The Twins, in particular, have added incentive to pursue controllable starters; each of Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda are free agents this winter.

AL Notes: Kirilloff, Tigers, Rangers, Athletics

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Rising Twins prospect Alex Kirilloff is now represented by Scott Boras, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports (subscription link) as part of a look at the super-agent’s commentary on the Minnesota organization. That puts both of the organization’s top pre-MLB players (Kirilloff and Royce Lewis) in the Boras stable. A burgeoning book of business with the Twins did not stop Boras from tweaking the club, though if anything it seemed more a playful jab to set up a free-agent or prospect promotional pitch. The Twins had a rough 2018 campaign, to be sure, but have loads of free payroll to work with and some exciting young talent reaching or nearing the majors. Their offseason remains a fascinating one to watch.

Elsewhere in the American League …

  • Don’t look for the Tigers to return to their ways as big players on the free-agent market just yet, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. Asked whether the Tigers could return to playing at the top of the open market, general manager Al Avila told Fenech, “One of these days,” before adding that the timing of such a return could be deduced “without me telling you.” Fenech goes on to suggest that the Tigers may not reemerge as prime free-agent players until the 2020-21 offseason, when the contract of Jordan Zimmermann is off the books and when much of the team’s increasing crop of minor league talent has begun to surface in the big leagues. For the time being, though, Tigers fans shouldn’t get their hopes up with dreams of splashy additions like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado or Patrick Corbin.
  • Cole Hamels’ success after being acquired by the Cubs has helped push the Rangers to re-evaluate their analytical practices, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. General manager Jon Daniels acknowledged that he talked to Hamels himself about the post-trade improvements and explained to Wilson that the organization will make some additions to get back up to speed in terms of data utilization. “There’s probably five or eight clubs that are ahead of the rest of the industry in certain areas,” said Daniels. “We’ve been in that group before, and we are in certain areas, but on the R&D side we’re not. That’s an area we’re going to look to improve.” As Wilson points out, it’s perhaps no surprise that the Rangers’ two biggest hires of the offseason — manager Chris Woodward and assistant general manager Shiraz Rehman — came from industry leaders in that regard. Woodward was the Dodgers’ third base coach, while Rehman was plucked from the Cubs’ front office.
  • The Athletics announced their player development staff for the upcoming season, and there are a few familiar names joining the minor league coaching ranks. Former big league third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff has been named the hitting coach for Oakland’s Short-Season Class-A affiliate in Vermont — his first professional coaching assignment. Meanwhile, 2004 AL Rookie of the Year Bobby Crosby will be a general coach on the Double-A Midland staff. And former big league righty Chris Smith, whose career came to a close after pitching for the 2017 A’s, will embark on his coaching career by serving as the organization’s pitching coach for Class-A Advanced Stockton.

The Top Minor League Performers Of 2018

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Over at Roster Resource, I rank Minor Leaguers throughout the regular season using a formula that takes into account several statistics with age and level serving as important factors in how they are weighed. These are not prospect rankings!

This is how it works:

  • Hitters are mostly rated by total hits, outs, extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts and stolen bases.
  • Pitchers are mostly rated by strikeouts, walks, earned runs, home runs and hits allowed per inning.
  • A few counting stats are included (IP, plate appearances, runs, RBI) to ensure that the players atop the list played a majority of the season.
  • The younger the player and the higher the level, the more weight each category is given. Therefore, a 19-year-old with an identical stat line as a 25-year-old at the same level will be ranked much higher. If a 23-year-old in Triple-A puts up an identical stat line as a 23-year-old in High-A, the player in Triple-A would be ranked much higher.

A player’s potential does not factor in to where they are ranked. If you’re wondering why a certain prospect who is rated highly by experts isn’t on the list, it’s likely because they missed time due to injury (see Victor Robles or Nick Senzel), MLB promotion (Juan Soto) or just weren’t productive enough. While there are plenty of recognizable names throughout the MiLB Power Rankings Top 200 list, it’s also full of players who were relatively unknown prior to the season and have seen their stock rise significantly due to their performance. Here’s a closer look at the Top 20.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Guerrero probably deserved to start his MLB career sometime between the debuts of NL Rookie of the Year candidates Ronald Acuña Jr. (April 25th) and Juan Soto (May 20th). All things being equal, that would’ve been the case.

But his call-up was delayed, mostly because third baseman Josh Donaldson was healthy in May and designated hitter Kendrys Morales was being given every opportunity to break out of an early season slump. As Guerrero’s path to regular playing time was becoming clearer, he suffered a knee injury in early June that kept him out of action for a month. When he returned, the Jays’ playoff chances had dwindled. Instead of adding him to the 40-man roster and starting his service time clock, they chose to delay his MLB debut until 2019.

You can hate the rule, but I’m certain Jays fans would rather have Guerrero under team control in 2025 as opposed to having him on the team for a few meaningless months in 2018 and headed for free agency after the 2024 season. And maybe it’s just me, but I kind of enjoy seeing what kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s way too good for his competition. And all this 19-year-old kid did was slash .381/.437/.636 with 20 HR, 29 2B, 37 BB, 38 K in 408 plate appearances, mostly between Triple-A and Double-A (he had 14 PAs during a rehab stint in the low minors).  Thanks for providing us with that beautiful stat line, Vlad Jr.

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2. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart

Despite a slow start—he had 21 hits in his first 83 Triple-A at-bats with one homer and 20 strikeouts— the 21-year-old Tucker showed why the World Champions were willing to give him a chance to take their starting left field job and run with it in July.

Tucker wasn’t quite ready for the Big Leagues—he was 8-for-52 in two separate MLB stints prior to a recent third call-up—but his stock hasn’t dropped one bit after slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers, 27 doubles and 20 stolen bases over 465 plate appearances in his first season at the Triple-A level.

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3. Luis Rengifo, SS, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

A 21-year-old shortstop just finished a Minor League season with 50 extra-base hits (7 HR, 30 2B, 13 3B), 41 stolen bases, as many walks as strikeouts (75 of each) and a .299/.399/.452 slash line. If the name Luis Rengifo doesn’t ring a bell, you’re probably not alone. He kind of came out of nowhere.

The Mariners traded him to the Rays last August in a deal for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton. Nine months later, the Rays shipped him to the Angels as the PTBNL in the deal for C.J. Cron. Based on those two trades, I can say without hesitation that the Mariners and Rays did not think Rengifo was this good. Not even close.

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4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

Lowe’s breakout season mirrors Juan Soto’s in one way: They both posted an OPS above 1.000 at two different levels before a promotion to a third. Soto’s third stop was in Double-A, and it was a very short stint before heading to the Majors. After destroying High-A and Double-A pitching, Lowe’s final stop of 2018 was Triple-A, where he finally cooled off.

Still, the 23-year-old has put himself squarely on the Rays’ radar. After homering just 11 times in his first 757 plate appearances, all in the low minors, Lowe broke out with 27 homers and 32 doubles in 555 plate appearances in 2018. His overall .330/.416/.568 slash was exceptional.

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5. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

We’re four seasons into the Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano era—both debuted during the 2015 season—and we can’t say for certain whether either player will even be penciled into the regular lineup in 2019. They could be still turn out to be perennial All-Stars someday. But you can’t blame Twins fans if they temper their expectations for the next great hitting star to come up through their farm system. And yet, that might be difficult with Kirilloff, a first-round draft pick in ’16, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, after the year each of them just had. Both are moving up the ladder quickly.

The 20-year-old Kirilloff, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a hitting machine in his first full professional season. After slashing .333/.391/.607 with 13 homers in 65 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he hit .362 with seven homers and 24 doubles in 65 games with High-A Fort Myers. He also had 11 hits in the playoffs, including a 5-hit performance on September 5th.

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6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

All Bichette did during his age-20 season was hit 43 doubles and steal 32 bases while manning shortstop for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the 2018 Eastern League Champions. It’s unlikely that he’ll join Vlad Jr. in the Majors early next season, but he might not be too far behind.

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7. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart

Alonso’s monster season (.975 OPS, 36 HR, 31 2B, 119 RBI between AAA/AA) ended in disappointment when he was passed over for a September promotion. As was the case with Vlad Jr., it didn’t make much sense to start his service time clock and fill a valuable 40-man spot during the offseason—neither Guerrero or Alonso have to be protected from the next Rule 5 draft—while the team is playing meaningless games. The 23-year-old Alonso did establish, however, that he is the Mets’ first baseman of the very near future, and they’ll plan accordingly during the upcoming offseason.

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8. Touki Toussaint, SP, Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart

As tough as it will be to crack the Braves’ rotation in the coming years, the 22-year-old Toussaint has put himself in position to play a significant role in 2019 after posting a 2.38 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 24 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also starting meaningful MLB games down the stretch as the Braves try to seal their first division title since 2013. After spending last October in the Arizona Fall League, where he followed up an underwhelming 2017 season by allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, he could find himself on the Braves’ playoff roster.

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9. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

The highest-ranked player to spend the entire season in Low-A, the 20-year-old Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 while stealing 55 bases in his first crack at a full season league (27 games in High-A; 95 games in Low-A). He’ll still be overshadowed a bit in a deep Tampa Bay farm system that includes two of the best young prospects in the game, Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but it’s hard to ignore such a rare combination of speed and on-base ability displayed by a switch-hitting middle infielder.

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10. Michael King, SP, New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart

The Yankees’ offseason trade that sent two MLB-ready players, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, to the Marlins cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots prior to the Rule 5 draft and brought back $250K in international bonus pool money. They also received King, who—whether anyone expected it or not—was about to have a breakout season.

After posting a 3.14 ERA with a 6.4 K/9 over 149 innings in Low-A in his age-22 season, numbers that typically indicate “possible future back-of-the-rotation workhorse,”  he looks to be much more than that after his 2018 performance. In 161 1/3 innings across Triple-A, Double-A and High-A, King posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. He was at his best once he reached Triple-A, posting a 1.15 ERA with only 20 hits and six walks allowed over 39 innings.

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11. Taylor Widener, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Unlike the trade to acquire King, the Yankees appear to have gotten the short end of the stick in a three-team, seven-player offseason deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay. They traded away Nick Solak to the Rays and Widener to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, who was supposed to fill a short-term need for infield depth.

While Drury was a bust in New York—he had nine hits in 51 at-bats before being traded to Toronto in a July deal for J.A. Happ—Solak, a second baseman/outfielder, put up terrific numbers in Double-A (.834 OPS, 19 HR, 21 SB) and Widener has emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.75 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 over 137 1/6 innings with Double-A Jackson.

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12. Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart

The offseason signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer certainly didn’t bode well for Naylor’s future with the Padres. Whether he had an MLB future at all, however, was already in question. First base prospects can’t just be good hitters. They need to mash, which is far from what Naylor did in 2017 (.761 OPS, 10 HR between Double-A and High-A). But a 20-year-old holding his own in Double-A is still interesting, nevertheless. So it was worth paying attention when he hit .379 with seven homers, five doubles, 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in April. He also spent most of his time in left field in 2018, adding a bit of versatility to his game.

Although April was his best month, by far, he still finished with an impressive .297/.383/.447 slash line. He’ll enter 2019 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A who has flashed some power (17 HR, 22 2B in 574 plate appearances) and above-average plate discipline (64 BB, 69 K).

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13. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Unlike the Jays and Mets, who had multiple reasons to keep Guerrero and Alonso in the Minors until 2019, the Sox’s decision to bypass Jimenez for a September call-up was more questionable.

Already on the 40-man roster and without much to prove after slashing .337/.384/.577 with 22 homers and 28 doubles between Triple-A and Double-A, Jimenez’s MLB debut appeared imminent as September approached. But White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, citing Jimenez’s need to improve his defense, confirmed in early September that he would not be called up. Of course, the 21-year-old probably would’ve benefited greatly from playing left field in the Majors for 20-25 games in September. And, of course, Hahn is just doing a good job of not saying the quiet part out loud: Eloy under team control through 2025 > Eloy under team control through 2024.

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14. Dean Kremer, SP, Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart

After posting a 5.18 ERA in 2017, mostly as a relief pitcher in High-A, Kremer’s stock rose quickly with a full-time move to the starting rotation in 2018. In 16 starts for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with a 13.0 K/9. After tossing seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, the Dodgers included him as a key piece in the July trade for Manny Machado. Kremer continued to pitch well with Double-A Bowie (2.58 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 38 H, 17 BB, 53 K) and now finds himself on track to help a rebuilding Orioles’ team in 2019.

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15. Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart

Lopez started to turn some heads during last offseason’s Arizona Fall League, and it carried over into 2018 as he slashed .308/.382/.417 with nine homers, 15 stolen bases and more walks (60) than strikeouts (52) between Triple-A and Double-A.  It’s a sign that the 23-year-0ld’s bat is catching up with his stellar defense and that he’s closing in on the Majors, where he could team with Adalberto Mondesi to form one of the better young middle infield duos in the game.

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16. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft didn’t disappoint in his first full professional season, posting an .853 OPS, nine homers, 23 doubles and 22 stolen bases in 75 Low-A games before a 2nd half promotion to High-A Fort Myers. He didn’t fare quite as well (.726 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB in 46 games), but he did hit three homers in the playoffs to help his team win the Florida State League championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the if he reached Double-A early next season as a 19-year-old with a jump to the Majors in 2020 not out of the question.

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17. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Throwing a 100 MPH fastball isn’t as rare as it used to be, but Kopech has reportedly touched 105 MPH, putting him in a class of his own. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old right-hander is expected to join a long list of pitchers who have had their careers interrupted by Tommy John surgery after he was recently diagnosed with a torn UCL.

The timing isn’t great, as Kopech had just arrived in the Majors in late August and would’ve likely been a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Still, he’ll only have to prove that he’s back to full health before he returns to the Majors—he should be ready to return early in the 2020 season— after making a strong impression in Triple-A with a 3.70 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.

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18. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Not only do Guerrero, Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely form the best trio of infield prospects in the game, two are sons of Hall of Famers—Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Craig Biggio, and Bichette’s dad, Dante, was also pretty good. And yet, another Blue Jays infield prospect with a very ordinary name and without MLB lineage managed to stand out. The 22-year-old finished the season with 25 homers, 31 doubles, 29 stolen bases and a cumulative .302/.358/.528 batting line between High-A and Low-A.

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19. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart

The former first-round pick wasn’t overly impressive in his first full Minor League season in 2017, slashing .244/.331/.362 with seven homers and 27 stolen bases for Low-A Great Lakes. A move to the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, however, seemed sure to give his offensive numbers a boost. It did. Lux had a .916 OPS and 41 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but he also didn’t slow down once he reached the upper minors late in the year.

In 28 regular season games with Double-A Tulsa, the 20-year-old Lux slashed .324/.408/.495 with four homers in 120 plate appearances. It didn’t end there. Over an eight-game playoff run, the left-handed batter went 14-for-33 with five multi-hit games.

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20. Patrick Sandoval, SP, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

Acquiring the 21-year-old Sandoval from the Astros for free agent-to-be catcher Martin Maldonado could turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline. While the lefty didn’t stand out in Houston’s deep farm system, he was having a strong season at the High-A and Low-A levels at the time of the trade (2.56 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 88 innings). The change of scenery didn’t affect him one bit as he tossed 14 2/3 shutout innings in the California League before finishing the season with four impressive Double-A starts (19 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 27 K).

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Power Ranking Leaders By Level

Triple-A
Hitter: Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Relief Pitcher: Ian Gibaut, Tampa Bay Rays

Double-A
Hitter: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher: Taylor Widener, Arizona Diamondbacks
Relief Pitcher: Matt Pierpont, Colorado Rockies

High-A
Hitter: Colton Welker, Colorado Rockies
Pitcher: Emilio Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Low-A
Hitter: Chavez Young, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher: Jhonathan Diaz, Boston Red Sox

Short-Season A
Hitter: Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Pitcher: Jaison Vilera, New York Mets

Rookie 
Hitter: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres

Prospect Notes: Vlad, 2018 Draftees, Twins, Franco, Pitchers

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With the season effectively over for all but a few teams, many front offices and fanbases alike are turning their sights toward the 2019 season and beyond as they hope for better days. With that in mind, here’s a look at some notes on some of the game’s top prospects from around the league…

  • ESPN’s Keith Law named Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. his prospect of the year for a second consecutive season (subscription required), citing familiar questions about his long-term defensive capabilities but adding that there’s “zero question in my mind” that Guerrero is more than ready to thrive against Major League pitching at the moment. As for 2018 draftees, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman and Royals lefty Daniel Lynch have been the two most impressive in his estimation. Gorman destroyed Appalachian League pitching and was promoted to full-season Class-A ball despite only having turned 18 in May. Lynch, a University of Virginia product, split his pro debut between those same two levels and pitched to a 1.58 ERA with a 61-to-8 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 innings.
  • Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com took a longer-term look at prospects yesterday, attempting to forecast who will be the top-ranked prospects this time a year from now. With names like Guerrero, Eloy Jimenez, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Tucker all expected to graduate from prospect lists next year, Callis and Mayo tab Twins shortstop Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick from 2017, as their pick to be the game’s top prospect a year from now. More encouraging for Twins fans is that 2016 first-rounder and outfielder Alex Kirilloff, who missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, lands third on the same list after hitting .348/.392/.578 between Class-A and Class-A Advanced in his return from that surgery.
  • Meanwhile, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser writes that Rays shortstop Wander Franco has been tabbed as BA’s breakout prospect of 2018. (Franco also appears on the previously mentioned lists from Law and MLB.com.) The 17-year-old Franco grew up living next to Indians superstar Jose Ramirez in the Dominican Republic and calls his childhood neighbor and friend his “idol” and greatest influence as a hitter. Glaser speaks to Franco about his relationship with Ramirez and his progress in 2018, and he also chats with Franco’s Appalachian League manager, Danny Sheaffer, about the young phenom’s strengths and upside. Franco was one of just two 17-year-olds playing in the Appy League this year but crushed older pitching to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 slash with 11 homers, 10 doubles and seven triples in 273 plate appearances.
  • Evaluating pitching prospects is among the most challenging endeavors for teams and online analysts alike. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs recently explored the pitfalls of attempting to do so, suggesting that many mainstream publications (his own past work at Fangraphs included) have leaned too heavily in favor of “power-over-feel” prospects and downplayed the potential significance of players cut from the Shane Bieber cloth — those who possess above-average command and stuff but perhaps not an overpowering arsenal of 60- or 70-grade offerings. McDaniel highlights Tigers righty Matt Manning, White Sox righty Dylan Cease and Rays lefty/first baseman Brendan McKay in examining the various elements that have contributed to this line of thinking in an interesting column that those who avidly follow prospects will want to check out in its entirety.

Alex Kirilloff To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Recent Twins first-round draft pick Alex Kirilloff will undergo Tommy John surgery in about a week, per a team announcement (h/t Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press, via Twitter). That will cost the outfielder all of the 2017 campaign.

That’s an unfortunate development for the 19-year-old, who’ll lose a year of development opportunities. Of course, given that he’s not a pitcher, it’s somewhat less concerning in regards to his long-term outlook.

Kirilloff, who was taken 15th overall in last summer’s draft, seemingly suffered the injury late last summer. He was shut down and rested all winter, but obviously was still dealing with issues as camp opened.

Minnesota will still look forward to a future contribution from Kirilloff, who was a long way from the majors before today’s news. He had shown quite well at the Rookie level last year, posting a solid .306/.341/.454 batting line with seven home runs over 232 plate appearances. Both MLB.com and Baseball America rated Kirilloff the Twins’ third-best prospect entering the 2017 season.

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