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Draft Notes: Orioles, Mariners, D’Backs, Signing Pools

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The signing period for 2018 draft picks came to an end yesterday, as teams had until 4pm CST to agree to contracts with players selected in last month’s amateur draft.  Here are some leftover items on players who did and didn’t end up inking deals.  Scouting reports and pre-draft rankings can be found courtesy of MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (the latter two available to subscribers only)…

  • The Orioles signed third-rounder Blaine Knight for a $1.1MM bonus, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski reported yesterday.  The bonus is nearly twice the $663.2K value assigned to the 87th overall pick, so Knight will receive a nice payday to begin his pro career.  Knight, a right-hander, was a big factor in Arkansas’ recent run to the College World Series, and his drop to the third round represents something of a bargain for the O’s — the pre-draft rankings had Knight no lower than 58th (from Fangraphs), with Baseball America rating him as the 36th-best prospect in this year’s class.
  • The Mariners also struck a late deal with a third-round pick, signing Florida State catcher Cal Raleigh to a deal with a $854K bonus, as per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (hat tip to MLB.com’s Greg Johns).  Seattle used its remaining pool space to land Raleigh on an above-slot deal, as the 90th overall selection carried a $632.7K slot price.  Baseball America was highest on Raleigh, ranking him as the 78th-best prospect and noting that a strong junior season helped him regain some draft stock after a mediocre sophomore year.
  • The Diamondbacks didn’t reach an agreement with 25th overall pick Matt McLain prior to yesterday’s deadline, with GM Mike Hazen sharing some general details about the situation to reporters (including the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro).  Though the D’Backs offered the full slot price of $2,636,400, McLain went into the draft with a set price tag that he would need to forego his commitment to UCLA, it became clear that he was serious about going to college.  “Those things change sometimes.  In fact, they change a lot in a lot of cases,” Hazen said.  “The family changes their mind sometimes.  I think as you go through the summer, if school is becoming less of a reality, or you don’t want to go to school, then that number can drop sometimes.  We’ve had situations where it goes up in the other direction….Everything that was presented to us from Scott [McLain’s advisor Scott Boras] to the family was 100 percent accurate.  I really think that school became the driving factor in the decision.”
  • McLain was one of three first-rounders who didn’t sign, the highest total since the 2010 draft, as MLB.com’s Jim Callis noted as part of a roundup of stats from this year’s draft class.  Only four first-round picks in total had failed to sign in the previous six drafts, or since the league instituted the new bonus pool system for the draft.  Overall, 310 of the 314 players taken in the first 10 rounds eventually signed with their teams.  Callis also lists what each team spent on their picks; for comparison, here is the listing of what every team had available to spend in their original draft bonus pool.

Diamondbacks Activate Randall Delgado, Designate Fernando Salas

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The Diamondbacks announced today that they have reinstated righty Randall Delgado from the 60-day DL. To clear a roster spot, the team designated right-handed reliever Fernando Salas for assignment.

Delgado, 28, has been shelved all year by an oblique injury. But he is now ready to go after throwing 16 rehab frames — over which he allowed six earned runs on ten hits with 16 strikeouts and eight walks.

The Snakes will hope that Delgado can get back to being a useful swingman. In 2017, he provided the club with 62 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. He’s earning $2.25MM this season before hitting the open market this fall.

The 33-year-old Salas signed a minors deal over the offseason that included a $1.5MM salary in the majors. He has thrown forty frames for the D-Backs this year, allowing twenty earned runs while recording 6.8 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9. He’ll now hope to follow the pattern of the prior two seasons, when he bounced back from slow starts by turning in strong finishes after mid-season organization changes. (Salas went from the Angels to the Mets in 2016, then did the reverse in 2017.)

Diamondbacks’ First-Round Pick Matt McLain Will Not Sign

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First-round pick Matt McLain has informed the Diamondbacks that he will attend UCLA rather than sign with them, reports Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). The D-backs offered McLain the full slot value of $2,636,400 for the No. 25 overall selection, according to Heyman, but it appears he’ll forgo that considerable sum to play collegiate ball.

McLain, a high school infielder out of California, went considerably higher than most pre-draft rankings had forecast. None of Baseball America, Fangraphs, ESPN or MLB.com ranked him inside the Top 50 players in the draft class, though he was generally slotted into the 50 to 70 range.

Reports on McLain agree that he was one of the most polished high school bats in the draft, though there were concerns about his size (5’10”, 175 pounds), lack of plus speed and the potential that he’d need to move off of shortstop. Reports from both MLB.com and ESPN noted that his strongest advocates likened him to Alex Bregman, and certainly the Diamondbacks appear to have been among those teams most bullish on him, based on the aggressive selection in the first round.

Because McLain won’t sign, the D-backs will lose that $2,636,400 from their bonus pool. They will, however, be awarded a compensatory selection at No. 26 overall in 2019. That won’t do their lackluster farm system any immediate favors, but it’ll give the D-backs more opportunity to be creative in next year’s draft. They’re now the second NL West team who’ve been spurned by their top pick; right-hander J.T. Ginn announced last night that he would attend Mississippi State rather than sign with the Dodgers.

Technically, McLain has until 5pm ET to change his mind at the eleventh hour, though that outcome seems decidedly unlikely based on Heyman’s report.

AL East Notes: MASN, Happ, Estrada, Machado

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While the ongoing television rights dispute between the Orioles and Nationals has been out of the news for some time, that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been any action behind the scenes. Jeff Barker of the Baltimore Sun recently provided a notable update on the situation. While the Baltimore organization has “grown weary of battling Major League Baseball over the [MASN] network” and has tried to work out a settlement, there’s still no resolution. At present, there’s no indication that the stalemate will be broken voluntarily; barring a change in that dynamic, the next big event on the calendar is a scheduled arbitration hearing in November.

Here’s the latest from the AL East:

  • The Yankees may be the “main player” for Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Not only is Happ arguably the best rental starter on the market, but it seems the Yanks hold him in high regard. They won’t be alone in pursuing the Toronto southpaw, however. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Jays are directing some scouting resources toward the Brewers farm system, perhaps in anticipation of interest from the Milwaukee organization.
  • Fellow Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada left last night’s game with a sore hip, as MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm was among those to tweet. For now, the severity isn’t known, though perhaps it’s promising that the Toronto organization made a roster transaction today but did not feel compelled to rush Estrada onto the disabled list. As we recently examined, Estrada’s strong performance of late has made him seem increasingly like a potential trade candidate this summer, but he’ll only be a useful asset for the Jays if he’s in good health.
  • Orioles third baseman Manny Machado is said to be drawing wide and increasingly active interest from a variety of rival organizations. That’s no surprise, as he’s a mid-prime rental asset of rare ability. The Diamondbacks have held “consistent” talks with the Baltimore organization, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links), which largely confirms the steady stream of reports we’ve seen on Arizona’s engagement. Morosi adds that the O’s are interested in young D-Backs prospect Jon Duplantier, whose current injury has “complicated” efforts to put together a package that suits both teams. It’s hard to gauge to what extent Duplantier’s status will impact the broader Machado situation, in no small part because it is not apparent whether he’s a player the Snakes would be willing to part with for a rental. Meanwhile, the Braves do have some interest in Machado, Morosi also tweets, but are mostly exploring the market for “controllable relievers” at the moment. Again, that dovetails with what we’ve heard out of Atlanta in recent weeks.

Manny Machado Trade Talks Have Reportedly Accelerated

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Though there’s still four weeks until the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline, trade talks surrounding Manny Machado have “accelerated” in recent days, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Orioles, according to Rosenthal, would prefer to move Machado “sooner rather than later,” as they can extract more in a trade if the acquiring team controls Machado for three months as opposed to two months.

To this point in the summer, the teams most connected to Machado have been the Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Indians. The Brewers and Cubs have been more loosely tied to Machado on the rumor mill, though Rosenthal reports that while Milwaukee is doing its due diligence, the team is unlikely to meet Baltimore’s asking price.

That, it seems, could be true of the Phillies as well. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that the Phillies should be considered “longshots” in the Machado trade sweepstakes. Zolecki writes that while the Phillies “love” Machado and plan to make a serious run at him in the offseason, the team doesn’t feel itself to be one piece away from a World Series. That, of course, makes it considerably more difficult to meet what is likely a rather lofty asking price from the O’s.

Rosenthal suggests that the D-backs and Indians could be the “most motivated” teams in the Machado market, and Zolecki, too, specifically lists the D-backs as a club likelier to acquire Machado than the Phillies.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, tweets that the Dodgers continue to “aggressively” pursue Machado, adding that the Orioles have been scouting L.A.’s system heavily and are particularly interested in Class-A Advanced right-hander Dustin May. There’d obviously be more at play than a mere one-for-one swap, but May, a third-round pick in 2016, is generally considered to be among the Dodgers’ more promising young arms. He’s off to a strong start in 2018 as well, having pitched to a 3.18 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 54.1 percent ground-ball rate through 65 innings (12 starts).

Of course, there could still be other organizations involved in discussions. Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets that eight teams have had at least some engagement with the O’s regarding Machado within the past ten days. That would suggest that there are at least a few mystery teams hanging around the periphery of talks.

D-Backs Activate A.J. Pollock, Select Joey Krehbiel, Release Troy Scribner

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The Diamondbacks have announced a series of roster moves. Most notably, the club activated center fielder A.J. Pollock. Additionally, the organization selected the contract of righty Joey Krehbiel and released fellow right-hander Troy Scribner.

Those moves bring two addition players to the active roster. To make space, the Snakes have optioned infielder/outfielder Christian Walker and righty Silvino Bracho.

Pollock, who’s returning from a broken thumb, only played in two rehab games before his activation. Accordingly, manager Torey Lovullo says that the team will limit Pollock’s action somewhat as he gets back into the swing of things, as Jack Magruder of the Sports Xchange tweets. He’ll look to pick up where he left off to open the season. In his first forty games, Pollock posted an excellent .293/.349/.620 batting line.

The 25-year-old Krehbiel, a former 12th-round pick, receives his first shot at the majors. He earned his way up with a strong showing in his first full go at Triple-A. Over 36 2/3 innings this year, he carries a 2.45 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.

As for Scribner, today’s news makes for an unwelcome birthday surprise. The 27-year-old, an early-season waiver claimee, struggled in his lone MLB start this year. He has spent most of the season at Triple-A, pitching to a 5.11 ERA in 44 frames over eight starts. Though he has averaged exactly one strikeout per frame, along with a manageable 3.5 BB/9, Scribner has coughed up ten long balls in that span.

Notable International Prospect Signings

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With the 2018-19 international signing period kicking off today, there will be dozens of six- and seven-figure bonuses handed out to teenage prospects, primarily out of Latin America, filtering in throughout the day today. Many of these have been in the works for quite some time, as is reflected by the fact that most of the top players’ destinations and signing bonuses have been previously reported/projected (and by the fact that the top agreements will all be reported in one swift avalanche today).

We’ll keep track of the notable National League signings here and the notable American League signings in a separate post. Note that you can read up on each of these players with the dedicated international coverage available from Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required), Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com and Kiley McDaniel & Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, each of whom has scouting info on the top echelon of international amateurs. Badler is also tracking the all of the signings from all 30 teams.

Onto some of the more notable signings…

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Injury Notes: Tommy John Surgeries, Sanchez, Thornburg, Sandoval

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Tommy John surgeries have become alarmingly common in today’s baseball climate, but the most disturbing trend is the age at which the bulk of these procedures are performed. Craig Davis of the Sun Sentinel sheds some spotlight on a recent study showing that teens between the ages of 15 and 19 account for 75% of all Tommy John surgeries. Davis cites the words of Dr. Tommy John (son of the former major league pitcher and the procedure’s namesake), who bluntly says, “The success rate after Tommy John surgery is not good. You don’t want this surgery, especially if you have it in your teenage years.” One possible reason for the dramatic increase in youth Tommy John surgeries is single-sport specialization; Dr. Randolph Cohen of Joe DiMaggio Children’s Hospital in Hollywood seems to believe it’s a big issue. “There’s an overall kind of irrational push by parents on children who are playing sports for such long hours and such long durations and such great repetition that we’re seeing an increase in the injuries in children than say we saw 20 years ago, where injuries like that were much more rare,” he said.

A few injury-related notes from around major-league baseball…

  • Though injured Yankees star Gary Sanchez hasn’t begun running drills yet, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that his recovery is going well. The Bombers are apparently hopeful he’ll be able to return around the All-Star break. Though he’s currently batting below the Mendoza line, the young Sanchez leads all MLB catchers with 14 homers to this point in the season.
  • The Red Sox are set to add a valuable reliever even before the July 31st trade deadline hits, as Chris Cotillo of masslive.com reports that Tyler Thornburg is expected to return to the club this week. The 29-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in a game for the Red Sox since being acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Travis Shaw and a pair of minor-leaguers. There wouldn’t appear to be a great chance of salvaging the trade at this point, but if Thornburg can return to post something close to the 2.15 ERA and 12.06 K/9 he posted with Milwaukee back in 2016, he could be of great help to an already-strong bridge to Craig Kimbrel.
  • The Giants got some good news today, as it appears Pablo Sandoval has avoided any serious injury. Panda’s x-rays showed no fractures (according to a tweet from Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic), so his diagnosis is simply an elbow contusion after being hit by a Zack Godley pitch during today’s matchup against the Diamondbacks.

Latest On Manny Machado

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Manny Machado will be the most oft-discussed player in baseball from now until the point that he’s ultimately traded, and Orioles general manager Dan Duquette said for the second time this month that interest in the free-agent-to-be is greater than it was when the O’s made him available in the offseason (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com).

“There are some teams that are in the market for help on the left side of the infield and some are looking for a shortstop and some are looking for a third baseman,” said Duquette. The asking price on Machado, of course, figures to be fairly steep — and the sheer volume of teams who could show interest can only help the Orioles. Kubatko notes that controllable starting pitching is a known priority for the Orioles, as is finding a potential replacement for Machado.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that, among the teams with interest in Machado, the Dodgers are perceived by some in the industry as the favorites to land Machado. Los Angeles has gone 26-10 to surge back up the ranks in the National League West, and they’ve done so without the benefit of star young shortstop Corey Seager, whose season ended back in May when he required Tommy John surgery. Machado could step into that void, of course, and provide a massive upgrade at the plate while freeing Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez to bounce around the diamond.

Per Nightengale, the O’s have placed a heavy focus on scouting the Dodgers’ minor league system. However, there are numerous other clubs at least keeping tabs on Machado, per the report, including the Phillies, the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals. There’s also industry speculation that the NL Central-leading Brewers could jump into the mix, given their aggressive offseason, an expected tight race in the division and the struggles of Orlando Arcia. And, of course, other clubs could yet emerge as potential suitors. The Angels, for instance, learned today that they’ve likely lost Zack Cozart for the rest of the year due to a torn labrum in his left shoulder that will require surgery.

One of those clubs, the Diamondbacks, has a particularly compelling case to add Machado to its ranks, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic explores. With A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin up for free agency following the season and Paul Goldschmidt only controlled through 2019, Piecoro argues that the Diamondbacks will never have a better chance to win with this core of players than they do right now. The front office has already been aggressive in acquiring Brad Boxberger, Jon Jay and Steven Souza Jr. (even if that move has yet to pay dividends), and it would indeed seem curious to take the metaphorical foot off the gas pedal now.

The Machado sweepstakes, clearly, will be one of the more intriguing storylines to follow this summer and again in free agency. There’s no clear timetable for when a trade might come together, but Duquette didn’t mince words when acknowledging that his club has “declared as sellers” and suggesting that there’s a “more defined” market for Machado this time around. Nightengale does note, though, that one Orioles exec predicted that based on the manner in which the market is coming together, it’s possible that Machado could be moved before the All-Star break.

NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich

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There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta’s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
  • The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
  • Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.
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