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Julio Lugo Passes Away

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Former major league infielder Julio Lugo has passed away after suffering what is believed to be a heart attack, his family tells Enrique Rojas of ESPN. He was 45 years old.

Lugo played in twelve major league seasons, suiting up for the Astros, Devil Rays, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Orioles and Braves between 2000-11. He was the primary shortstop on the Red Sox’s 2007 World Series-winning team, part of a seven-year run as a regular at the position.

Lugo appeared in 120+ games in six of seven seasons between 2001-07 before transitioning into a utility role later in his career. Altogether, the slick-fielding infielder appeared in 1352 MLB games, hitting .269/.333/.384 with 80 home runs over 5338 plate appearances.

MLBTR sends our condolences to Lugo’s family, friends, teammates and loved ones.

Details On Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves

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“You couldn’t find a soul who believes [Freddie] Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes about the general consensus around the GM Meetings this week.  Despite this widespread expectation that Freeman and the Braves will eventually work out a new contract, that certainty can’t be at a full 100 percent, considering that the two sides weren’t able to agree to an extension before Freeman reached free agency.

Nightengale also provides some numbers in regards to the negotiations, as Freeman and his representatives are looking for a deal in the range of six years and $200MM.  That is a sizeable bump over one Atlanta offer that Freeman has already turned down, with the Braves offering $135MM over a five-year pact.  Details weren’t provided on when exactly this five-year/$135MM offer was floated, whether it was a recent offer on the Braves’ part or if it came earlier in the year.  Reports from back in September already indicated that some type of “gap” existed between the two sides in contract talks, and a $65MM difference would certainly qualify.

Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM extension with the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season has long been cited as a potential comp for a new Freeman contract, since both deals involved star first baseman entering their age-32 seasons, and both players are even represented by the same agency (Excel Sports Management).  This comparison point clearly stood out for the Braves, considering their offer to Freeman was only slightly above the Goldschmidt deal.

However, a case could certainly be made that Freeman is worth more than just a $5MM bump, for starters due to the simple fact that the Goldschmidt extension is over two years’ old.  Freeman also has a longer track record as an Atlanta icon (whereas the Cardinals had just acquired Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks a few months’ prior) and Freeman just won the NL MVP Award in the abbreviated 2020 season.  If the Braves’ offer came very recently, it seems like even more of an undervalue, considering Freeman had another big year in 2021 and then an enormous performance in the playoffs to help the Braves win the World Series.

Beyond just the dollar figure, the sixth year stands out as a potential sticking point.  Committing over $32MM in average annual value to a first base-only player into his age-37 season carries its share of risk, especially for a Braves team that operates within a fairly limited payroll.  Roster Resource estimates that Atlanta finished the 2021 season with $145MM in payroll expenditures, which would represent the highest number since Liberty Media bought the franchise in 2007.

Alex Anthopoulos has already said that the team will raise payroll coming off their World Series triumph, and the president of baseball operations made a point of mentioning the mutual interest between both the Braves and Freeman in continuing their relationship: “We’ve made it clear we want him to stay.  He wants to stay.”  Looking at Atlanta’s current payroll, however, the Braves already have over $141MM committed for 2022.  Even factoring in some or most of Marcell Ozuna’s $16MM salary being reduced by suspension, Liberty Media would have to go way beyond their historical comfort zone ccommodate something in the range of a $30MM salary for Freeman, not to mention any other additions the Braves would need to fill any other roster holes.

Freeman ranked third on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and while our prediction didn’t quite hit the $200MM threshold, Freeman is projected for a six-year, $180MM contract.  Freeman has proven to be enough of an elite talent that such a deal is likely to be out there for him somewhere on the open market, so the Braves may now face a bidding war to keep their longtime star in the fold.

Sean Kazmar Jr. Retires

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Former major league infielder Sean Kazmar Jr. is retiring from professional baseball, according to an announcement from the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett. The 37-year-old appeared in seventeen minor league seasons, the last eight of which came in the Atlanta system.

Kazmar was the prototypical organizational veteran, remarkably going more than a decade in between big league appearances. He broke into the majors in August 2008, not long after his 24th birthday. He made nineteen appearances with the Padres down the stretch that season, then spent the entire 2009-19 campaigns in Triple-A. Kazmar first joined the Braves’ organization in 2013 and played with Gwinnett exclusively through 2019, not appearing in 2020 because of the canceled minor league season.

That perseverance eventually paid off, as Kazmar made it back to the big leagues this past season. The Braves selected his contract in mid-April, although his second and final major league stint proved brief. Kazmar got into three games, making two plate appearances, before being outrighted off the 40-man roster. He spent the final few months of the season back with the Stripers.

Kazmar’s major league career consists of just 48 plate appearances, in which time he managed eight hits and five walks. Merely playing at the professional level for seventeen seasons is itself quite the accomplishment, though. And Kazmar’s return to the majors — however brief — was one of the better stories of the first few months of the season, no doubt made sweeter by the team’s eventual World Series win.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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In their fourth consecutive season at the top of the National League East, the Braves finally put away their postseason demons to win the World Series. If it weren’t for the ring, however, this would be the most uncertain offseason the Braves have faced in some time. This year’s team had the lowest winning percentage of any of their four East title squads, and it’s hard not to suggest that these Braves benefited from a weak division in 2021. They capitalized, they partied, and they paraded, but now it’s time to pack up the balloons and streamers and look ahead to some difficult offseason decisions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Charlie Morton, SP: $20MM in 2022 (includes $20MM club option for 2023 with no buyout)
  • Marcell Ozuna OF: $53MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout on $16MM club option for 2025)
  • Will Smith, RP: $14MM in 2022 (includes $1MM buyout on $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $93MM through 2026 (includes $10MM buyout on $17MM club option for 2027, team also holds a $17MM option for 2028)
  • Travis d’Arnaud, C: $16MM through 2023 (includes $8MM club option for 2024 with no buyout)
  • Ozzie Albies, 2B: $26MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout on $7MM club option in 2026, team also holds $7MM club option for 2027)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Joc Pederson, OF: $10MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $2.5MM buyout)
  • Adam Duvall, OF: $7MM mutual option for 2022 (player declined in favor of a $3MM buyout, remains arbitration-eligible)
  • Josh Tomlin, RP: $1.25MM team option for 2022 (declined for a $250K buyout)

Free Agents

The Braves are the champions of the 2021 Major League Baseball season. Bully for you, Atlanta.  Given that fact, their offseason outlook is pretty good. Frankly, whatever happens over the next six months won’t really matter to the Braves. They’re the champs, and that’s the ultimate winter gavel drop.

The one thing that could slow the effervescent feel-goodery of their championship run is the pending contract negotiation with longtime face-of-the-franchise Freddie Freeman. If by some odd twist of fate Freeman does not sign a long-term deal to stay with the Braves, that’s when the lights turn on, the music stops, and everyone goes home.

The 2022 season is already shaping up to be a weird one: the Giants will be without Buster Posey, the Nationals will probably be without Ryan Zimmerman, Bryzzo no longer exists except in the memory of Cubs’ fans, a fanbase other than Houston is likely going to embrace Carlos Correa, and the agreement between the owners and Players’ Union that defines the conditions of the 2022 season…well…there is no agreement. Point being, there’s only so much change a sport can take in a single winter, so let’s assume for the sake of sanity that Freeman will remain with the only organization he has ever known. If north ends up being south and pigs fly, we can cross that bridge then.

After all, from a baseball perspective, there’s little reason not to bring back Freeman. He’s one year removed from an MVP season and coming off a .300/.393/.503 campaign, in which he led the NL with 120 runs. He’s been one of the most consistent players in baseball, both from a character and production standpoint. He’s posted 4.0 rWAR or better in each of the last six seasons (except for 2020, when he put up 3.2 rWAR in 60 games). He’s been the heartbeat of the club for years, and he shows no signs of slowing down.

Yes, he plays first base, and that means he’s not a particularly versatile asset. His next contract will take him into his late thirties, and it’s going to be costly. But so long as they have Acuna and Albies locked into ridiculously team-friendly deals, and so long as their largest contract belongs to Charlie Morton on a minimal-risk, short-term contract, these Braves should have the money to overpay a little to keep “new Chipper” in his locker spot.

From a narrative perspective, the engines stalled during the postseason while Joe Buck and John Smoltz repeatedly tried to breathe life into the story of Soler, Rosario, Duvall, and Pederson being brought to Atlanta at the deadline. For sure, give President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos all the credit he deserves. He absolutely raised the floor for what had been an under-performing Atlanta team, and he hit pay dirt when each of the four showed up huge in the postseason. It’s pretty remarkable, in fact, that each of those four guys was able to make a distinct imprint on this postseason.

And yet, there’s a world in which none of them return to Atlanta for 2022. Soler and Rosario were the NLCS and World Series MVPs, respectively, but they are both straight-up free agents – free to sign wherever they please. For both of those guys, they could be in for an extended stay at reception unless the Braves want to honor their contribution with a hero’s offer.

On the other hand, it’s easy to see either one of these guys returning to Atlanta. When guys become postseason starts like Rosario and Soler, they instantly become more valuable to their incumbent franchise than they are anywhere else. For the players, they certainly should have positive associations from their time in Atlanta, and their popularity meters will be less sensitive in Atlanta than with a fresh fanbase. And yet, Soler and Rosario are corner outfielders at best, and most teams may want to see what happens with the CBA before signing a potential designated hitter.

While Soler and Rosario are the decorated heroes of this outfield foursome, Pederson and Duvall have been the active pair thus far. Pederson declined his $10MM mutual option, choosing instead to take a $2.5MM buyout and head to free agency. The move makes sense for both sides, as Pederson will want to find a situation with more guaranteed playing time. Coming off a 94 wRC+ season that saw him post just 0.6 fWAR between the Cubs and Braves, the Braves weren’t likely to exercise their half of the option if the decision had made it that far.

The Duvall decision is a touch more complex. Their postseason centerfielder declined his half of a $7MM mutual option, pocketing the $3MM buyout. But he remains under team control through arbitration. Duvall has been a 109 wRC+ hitter over the past three seasons, mostly with Atlanta, and he’s coming off probably his best year, posting 2.4 fWAR between the Marlins and Braves. Besides, unlocking at least a passing ability to play centerfield makes Duvall all the more valuable. He’s a flawed player because of subpar on-base skills, but he can also carry a team when he’s hot. Still, the Braves have designated him for assignment in the past when the financials were similar, and if they learned anything this past season, it’s that outfielders can be had at the deadline for cheap. If they keep him, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects a salary in the $9.1MM range.

Not to mention, the Braves outfield quandary goes deeper than those four. With Acuna coming back, they’re already overcrowded (even if Acuna isn’t ready by opening day). Plus, with Marcell Ozuna’s contract hanging over this team, there’s a lot more uncertainty heading into next season. As of now, there’s no telling if Ozuna will play again or if the Braves would have any recourse to getting out of his contract, should they want to.

They also have heralded prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters to work into the equation. Pache already has a Major League glove, and he should have a roster spot on the 2022 Braves. Even if he’s not strictly an everyday regular, if he’s on the roster, he’s likely to get a lot of the playing time.

The shape and depth of the Braves ’22 outfield is unclear, but the truth is, it’s a largely cosmetic problem. There are plenty of options available to Anthopoulos, and it’s more a question of sentimentality and narrative than it is efficacy. The bones of a solid outfield are already there, especially if they choose to bring back Duvall, and even if none of Soler, Duvall, Rosario and Pederson return, there ought to be plenty of low-cost alternatives available to bring aboard.

The rest of the offense is fairly well set. Swanson has one more year of arbitration at short, Albies is locked in long-term at second, Riley established himself at the hot corner, and d’Arnaud signed a two-year extension to return as the starting backstop. One wayward thought: given the shortstops that are available this winter, the Braves could be bold and look now for a long-term replacement for Swanson at short, but that’s probably a little too cute for Anthopoulos. Swanson is Georgia born, he has great hair, solid memes, and the former number one overall pick has been a steady if unspectacular presence on both sides of the ball. Entering his age-28 season, there may yet be a career year lurking as well.

Behind those starters, William Contreras shows promise and can serve as the backup behind the plate. If they want to give him more regular playing time in Triple-A, Chadwick Tromp was picked up from the Giants and 24-year-old Shea Langeliers isn’t far from elbowing his way into the room. If retained, Johan Camargo and Orlando Arcia can backup most spots around the diamond, though either one could be a non-tender candidate given their light outputs at the dish. Travis Demeritte was added to the 40-man roster to compete for a backup role as well. There’s a spot to fill on the bench, but it largely depends on whether or not they retain any of the “trade deadline four.”

For the rest of the roster, they’re actually in a much better place than you might assume for a team coming off its fourth consecutive division title. Because despite their longstanding success, there’s definitely an up-and-coming quality to this roster, especially on the pitching side. Morton, Ian Anderson, and Max Fried make for a stellar top of the rotation, and there’s some serious upside to untap if Mike Soroka can return healthy and either Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Kyle Muller, or Touki Toussaint can establish themselves in the bigs. Of course, we’ve been saying this of Atlanta’s rotation for years. They’ve also managed to keep it together for years.

They may look to add another Drew Smyly type, a back-end rotation piece who gave them 126 2/3 innings of 4.48 ERA/5.11 FIP baseball during the regular season. Those innings are no joke, and Atlanta will have to fill them again next year. Smyly was little better than replacement level, so they should have no trouble replacing him.

The bullpen remains mostly intact as well, with the southpaw triumvirate of Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter returning. Richard Rodriguez, Luke Jackson, and Jacob Webb make up a solid trio of righties as well. There’s certainly room for an addition here or there, but it’s more likely the Braves will tinker around the edges of the roster

All in all, it’s likely to be a relatively quiet winter for the champs outside of a potential Freeman extension. With arbitration projections, their projected payroll is right around the $140MM mark they carried in 2021. Of course, that’s without a new contract for Freeman, but winning the World Series ought to help make the extra room in the payroll to keep the player who waited the longest in Atlanta to win.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

2021 Gold Glove Winners Announced

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The 2021 Gold Glove winners were announced tonight, with plenty of Cardinal Red to be found amidst the gold.  The Cardinals became the first team to ever have five players capture Gold Gloves, underlining the tremendous all-around defensive effort that helped St. Louis reach the postseason.  Ironically, the only nominated Cardinals player who didn’t win was the most decorated name of the group — nine-time winner Yadier Molina.

The A’s, Royals, Astros, and the World Series champion Braves also had multiple winners, with each club boasting two Gold Glovers.  Ten of the 18 winners captured their first Gold Gloves, though some veteran winners continued to shine.  The most notable of the multiple-time winners is Nolan Arenado, who becomes the 23rd player to ever win nine or more Gold Gloves in his career.  Arenado still has plenty of time to continue his climb up the all-time list, yet catching 16-time winner Brooks Robinson for the all-time third base record may be a tall order even for Arenado.

Here is the full list of winners, as well as the other two nominated finalists at each position….

NL Catcher: Jacob Stallings, Pirates (1st career Gold Glove)
Yadier Molina/Cardinals, J.T. Realmuto/Phillies

NL First Base: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (4th)
Freddie Freeman/Braves, Max Muncy/Dodgers

NL Second Base: Tommy Edman, Cardinals (1st)
Ozzie Albies/Braves, Kolten Wong/Brewers

NL Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (9th)
Manny Machado/Padres, Ryan McMahon/Rockies

NL Shortstop: Brandon Crawford, Giants (4th)
Francisco Lindor/Mets, Kevin Newman/Pirates

NL Left Field: Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals (2nd)
David Peralta/Diamondbacks, AJ Pollock/Dodgers

NL Center Field: Harrison Bader, Cardinals (1st)
Jackie Bradley Jr./Brewers, Bryan Reynolds/Pirates

NL Right Field: Adam Duvall, Braves/Marlins (1st)
Mookie Betts/Dodgers, Mike Yastrzemski/Giants

NL Pitcher: Max Fried/Braves (2nd)
Zach Davies/Cubs, Zack Wheeler/Phillies

AL Catcher: Sean Murphy, Athletics (1st)
Martin Maldonado/Astros, Salvador Perez/Royals

AL First Base: Yuli Gurriel, Astros (1st)
Matt Olson/Athletics, Jared Walsh/Angels

AL Second Base: Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (1st)
David Fletcher/Angels, Whit Merrifield/Royals

AL Third Base: Matt Chapman, Athletics (3rd)
Jose Ramirez/Guardians, Joey Wendle/Rays

AL Shortstop: Carlos Correa, Astros (1st)
J.P. Crawford/Mariners, Andrelton Simmons/Twins

AL Left Field: Andrew Benintendi, Royals (1st)
Randy Arozarena/Rays, Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Blue Jays

AL Center Field: Michael A. Taylor, Royals (1st)
Kevin Kiermaier/Rays, Myles Straw/Guardians

AL Right Field: Joey Gallo, Yankees/Rangers (2nd)
Hunter Renfroe/Red Sox, Kyle Tucker/Astros

AL Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel, White Sox (5th)
Jose Berrios/Blue Jays and Twins, Zack Greinke/Astros

Braves’ President Alex Anthopoulos Says Payroll Will Increase In 2022

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Braves’ president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos, who recently added a World Series victory to his resume, spoke with members of the media today about what the club has planned between now and their upcoming title defense in 2022. When it comes to the budget, Anthopoulos said that it will go up next season, though the exact figure is still being finalized. (Twitter link from David O’Brien of The Athletic.)

It’s hardly surprising that ownership is going to invest some more money into the club, given that they surely saw increased revenues from ticket sales and television viewership during their triumphant march to becoming World Series champions. They began the 2021 season with a payroll over $131MM, the highest opening day figure in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. In July, they acquired Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Stephen Vogt and Richard Rodriguez, taking on about $15MM in salary and pushing their season-ending payroll to somewhere in the $145-150MM range. At the moment, their outlook for 2022 is just over $141MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, already fairly close to 2022’s final outlay. Therefore, their offseason strategy will depend upon exactly how much of increase the front office has to work with.

Anthopoulos himself acknowledged that it will be hard to keep all of the outfielders. (Twitter link from Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.) Soler, Pederson and Rosario are all heading into free agency today, leaving the club with a 2022 outfield of Duvall, Cristian Pache and Guillermo Heredia. Ronald Acuna will retake a spot as soon as he’s healthy but isn’t expected to be ready by opening day. There’s certainly room to add to that group, on paper, as long as there’s money available to do it.

Of course, there’s another area that the club surely wants to dedicate some resources to, and that’s bringing Freddie Freeman back into the fold. When it comes to the slugging first baseman, Anthopoulos said, per Burns, “We’ve made it clear we want him to stay. He wants to stay.” The mutual interest in reuniting is understandable, given that Freeman has been with the organization since they selected him in the second round of the 2007 draft and since has become the face of the franchise, but he’s also 32 years old, meaning this is going to be his best shot to land a huge deal in free agency. As much as he may want to return, he’ll also want to take advantage of his first and potentially only trip to the free agent market and can’t be expected to offer huge hometown discounts.

Freeman has been one of the most consistently-excellent hitters over the past decade or so. Since his 2013 breakout, he’s never had a wRC+ lower than 132 and never produced less than 3.3 fWAR, even including the shortened 2020 campaign. In 2021, he hit 31 home runs and slashed .300/.393/.503, good enough for a wRC+ of 135 and 4.5 fWAR. It’s hard to fathom him doing that in any other uniform at this point, but the Atlanta brass will surely have to put some cash on the barrelhead to keep it that way.

Braves Announce Several Roster Moves

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The Braves announced a series of roster transactions, including the news that Josh Tomlin’s 2022 club option has been declined.  Left-hander Grant Dayton has been released, and outfielder Terrance Gore has been outrighted to Triple-A.  Joining the 40-man roster are outfielder Travis Demeritte and right-hander Alan Rangel, whose contracts were selected from Triple-A.  Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mike Soroka were also reinstated from the 60-day injured list as procedural moves.

Tomlin has spent the last three years with Atlanta, signing a pair of minor league contracts for the 2019 and 2020 seasons and then inking a one-year Major League deal last winter that paid him $1.25MM in guaranteed salary.  That money took the form of a $1MM salary for the season and then a $250K buyout of the team’s $1.25MM club option for the 2022 campaign.  The Braves therefore had a $1MM decision to make on Tomlin, and opted to not bring Tomlin back after a rough season for the 37-year-old.

Tomlin posted a 6.57 ERA over 49 1/3 relief innings last year, and was the victim of some bad luck — an ungainly .358 BABIP and a .346 xwOBA was well below his .377 wOBA.  That said, even his xwOBA was only in the 15th percentile of all pitchers, and Tomlin allowed more than his usual amount of hard contact.  With a very low strikeout rate and whiff rate, this lack of missed bats caught up to Tomlin in a big way.  On the plus side, Tomlin still delivered his usual excellent walk rate and spin rates on both his fastball and his curve.

Though a neck strain sidelined Tomlin for much of September, he likely wouldn’t have made the Braves’ postseason roster anyway.  The declined option doesn’t necessarily spell the end of his tenure with the club, as Atlanta could look to retain Tomlin via another minor league deal and see if the veteran has anything left in the tank during Spring Training.

Dayton has also been with Atlanta over the last three seasons, and was projected to earn $1.2MM this winter in his final year of arbitration eligibility.  The release allows the southpaw to get an early jump on a new job in free agency, rather than wait a few more weeks until the non-tender deadline (and the Braves also free up a roster spot in advance of the 40-man deadline on November 19).

Dayton pitched only 13 innings in 2021, as a shoulder injury kept him on the injured list for much of the last four months of the season.  Injuries have plagued Dayton for the last four years, as he missed all of 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery and he missed a big piece of the 2019 season due to a fractured toe.  The southpaw was pretty effective when he was able to pitch in 2019-20, though this year had a 6.23 ERA over his 13 frames.

Gore was signed to a minor league deal last winter and didn’t see any action for the Braves during the regular season, but was on the team’s roster for both the NLDS and the World Series.  Gore appeared in one game during the playoffs, pinch-running and being left stranded at first base in the Braves’ 3-0 win over the Brewers in Game 2 of the NLDS.  If he wishes, the 30-year-old Gore can decline the outright assignment and look for another contract elsewhere, and contenders might be interested in signing Gore for karma purposes alone.  The veteran pinch-running specialist has been a part of the last two World Series championship teams, and has three Series rings in total over his career, despite appearing in only 102 regular-season games from 2014-20.

Joc Pederson Declines Mutual Option

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Braves outfielder Joc Pederson has declined his end of a $10MM mutual option in favor of a $2.5MM buyout, the Associated Press reports. Unlike teammate Adam Duvall, who also declined a mutual option this week, Pederson has more than six years of Major League service time and is thus a free agent now that he’s declined his end of the option.

Signed by the Cubs to a one-year deal last winter, Pederson was guaranteed $7MM in the form of a $4.5MM base salary and the $2.5MM buyout on the option he’s now declined. He can’t receive a qualifying offer by virtue of the fact that he was traded midseason (from Chicago to Atlanta), though it’s unlikely he’d have been a candidate for such an offer anyhow.

Pederson, 30 in April, posted similar overall numbers in 256 plate appearances with the Cubs and 173 plate appearances with the Braves, resulting in an overall .238/.310/.422 batting line on the season. He connected on 18 home runs, 19 doubles and three triples.

It’s perhaps encouraging that the left-handed-hitting Pederson, who has some longstanding struggles against left-handed pitching, hit lefties at a solid .265/.348/.378 clip in 2021 — albeit in a small sample of 112 plate appearances. However, it’s also concerning that his typically outstanding production against right-handers dwindled; in 369 plate appearances with the platoon advantage, Pederson slashed an uncharacteristically pedestrian .230/.298/.435.

When the page flipped to the postseason, the “Joctober” narrative took full effect, as Pederson clubbed a pair of pivotal pinch-hit home runs during Atlanta’s NLDS victory over the Brewers. Pederson homered early in the NLCS as well, but his bat went dormant for the remainder of the postseason, as he finished out the playoffs in a 2-for-26 swoon with a walk and eight strikeouts. It’s worth pointing out that, fun as the “Joctober” moniker may be, his career postseason line of .256/.332/.482 now quite closely resembles his lifetime .232/.332/.462 regular-season batting line.

Pederson will now head back out into what he hopes will be a healthier free agent market than he encountered last winter, when many clubs simply opted not to spend on the heels of a 2020 season played without ticket revenues. The expiring collective bargaining agreement will create similar uncertainty for free agents, but it’s likelier that teams will be more amenable to spending than they were last time around. Pederson’s 2021 showing didn’t exactly send his free-agent stock soaring, but it was still an improvement over a woeful .190/.285/.397 showing from that 2020 season. A multi-year deal seems possible, but with a fairly deep crop of corner outfielders available in free agency, he might settle for a second consecutive one-year pact.

Adam Duvall Declines Mutual Option, Will Be Arbitration-Eligible

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Braves outfielder Adam Duvall has declined his half of his $7MM mutual option, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (via Twitter). He’ll receive a $3MM buyout. However, because Duvall has fewer than six years of Major League service time, he’ll remain with the Braves as an arbitration-eligible player — should they wish to tender him a contract. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9.1MM salary for the veteran slugger.

Duvall signed that one-year deal with the Marlins last winter, after being non-tendered by a Braves team that ultimately reacquired him prior to the trade deadline. The 33-year-old Duvall has long been a strong defender with a perilously low OBP and plenty of power, but he dialed that skill set up to new heights in 2021. Duvall slugged a career-best 38 home runs and posted a whopping 19 Defensive Runs Saved (in addition to a 9.9 UZR and 5 Outs Above Average), but he also turned in a .281 OBP that tied him for the second-worst mark among all qualified hitters in Major League Baseball. The bottom-of-the-barrel OBP was enough for weighted metrics like wRC+ and OPS+ to peg his overall offense at just two to three percent better than the league average.

Still, a 30-homer bat with plus defense in the outfield corners is a plenty useful player, even if Duvall perennially ranks near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage. The projected $9.1MM price point is plenty reasonable for a player who posted 3.1 bWAR and 2.4 fWAR on the season, but it bears repeating that the Braves non-tendered Duvall not even one year ago, when he carried a smaller arbitration projection and was coming off a similar season. In 209 plate appearances with Atlanta in 2020, Duvall hit .237/.301/.532 with 16 home runs — a pace that falls pretty closely in line with this year’s .228/.281/.491 output.

Of course, the Braves have less certainty in their outfield than they did last year — and their World Series win likely gives them some additional resources. A good chunk of that extra cash has to be earmarked for a hopeful Freddie Freeman extension, but the Braves can clearly afford to keep Duvall in the fold if they so choose. And with each of Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson set to hit free agency, plus Ronald Acuna Jr. on the mend from an ACL tear and Marcell Ozuna’s status up in the air following an alleged domestic assault, Atlanta could well decide place a premium on the certainty that’d come from tendering a contract to Duvall.

They’ll have until Dec. 2 to make that call, although with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire one day earlier, on Dec. 1, it’s best not to assume anything transaction-wise from that point forth.

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