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Red Sox Agree To Sign Justin Turner

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6:41PM: Another breakdown is provided by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who reports that Turner will earn $15MM in 2023, and then $7.7MM in 2024 if he exercises his player option.  Another $1MM is available to Turner in incentive bonuses in 2023, as he can unlock a series of $200K bonuses if he reaches at least 480 plate appearances.

6:01PM: Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has a different set of contract numbers, reporting that Turner will get only $8.3MM in 2023 and then $11.4MM in 2024 if he exercises the player option.  Unless is a signing bonus or buyout also attached to the deal, Speier’s report would indicate that Turner is only receiving $19.7MM in guaranteed salary.  The $8.3MM figure in 2023 in particular looks like a very nice bargain for the Red Sox on what could well end up being a one-year commitment to a 38-year-old player.

5:26PM: Turner will earn $14MM in 2023, Heyman reports, and the 2024 player option is worth $8MM.

4:54PM: The Red Sox have agreed to a deal with infielder Justin Turner, according to ESPN’s Joon Lee and Jeff Passan (Twitter links).  The two-year contract will pay Turner slightly less than $22MM, and Turner can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season.  Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links) reported earlier today that Turner and the Sox were “looking close” to working out a contract, and that Boston was “heavily” pursuing Turner.  Michael Marino of Fantrax reported yesterday that Turner and the Sox were in talks.  Turner is represented by Vayner Sports.

The Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins, and Dodgers are the other teams publicly known to have some interest in Turner, and Miami made Turner an offer earlier this week.  Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald described the Marlins’ offer as “competitive,” and though the exact details of the offer weren’t known, Heyman wrote that the Marlins seemed open to giving Turner the multi-year deal he is seeking in free agency.

Turner (who is entering his age-38 season) did find that multi-year pact, though at a significant drop in average annual value from the $17MM he received in his previous two-year deal with the Dodgers.  MLBTR projected Turner for only one guaranteed year, but for $14MM.  The year-to-year breakdown of the new contract isn’t yet known, and the opt-out could indicate that Turner’s camp might essentially view this deal as a one-year pact, with an eye towards getting a larger multi-year contract next after on the heels of a big platform year at Fenway Park.

That said, it isn’t as though Turner underachieved in 2022, as he posted a strong 123 wRC+ after batting .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 plate appearances with the Dodgers.  However, given how Turner’s usual offseason routine was thrown off-kilter was the lockout and the shortened Spring Training, he might well imagine that he could’ve hit much better had it not been for a very slow start.  Turner had only a .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then caught fire with a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.

Despite this production and Turner’s long track record of success over nine seasons in Los Angeles, the Dodgers opted to decline their $16MM club option on Turner for 2023, instead buying him out for $2MM.  The move was seemingly made to give the Dodgers some extra flexibility in regards to their payroll and luxury tax situation, as the Dodgers could conceivably use any of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, or prospect Miguel Vargas at third base.  While president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman repeatedly stated that the door was still open for a possible reunion with Turner, the Dodgers’ signing of J.D. Martinez yesterday seemed to hint that L.A. had moved on.

As it turned out, the Dodgers and Red Sox will unofficially swap veteran hitters, with Martinez heading to Los Angeles and Turner coming to Boston.  Turner brings more defensive utility than Martinez, as Turner still saw quite a bit of action at third base last season, basically splitting his time between third and DH.  Rafael Devers of course has priority at the hot corner in Boston, but the Red Sox could now use Turner at third base when Devers (a subpar defender) is given a DH day of his own.  Turner hasn’t played at first base since 2016, but he could also conceivably get some time at the cold corner as a right-handed hitting complement to rookie Triston Casas.

Xander Bogaerts’ departure to the Padres has led to a lot of hard feelings from Red Sox Nation directed towards ownership and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom.  Though Bogaerts is certainly a major loss, Bloom’s plan is to fill the void with multiple players, as Bloom has stated that he wanted to add roughly 7-9 new faces to the roster.  That long list of needs has now been partially filled by Turner, Masataka Yoshida, and relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodriguez.

It would seem like starting pitching, catching, and the outfield remain on Bloom’s checklist, given the other players the Red Sox have at least checked in on this winter.  But with Turner, the club reinforcements the corner infield/DH mix that Boston first looked to address by making a push for Jose Abreu, before Abreu signed with the Astros.  The Red Sox made some room at first base by designing Eric Hosmer for assignment earlier this week, and though Hosmer was essentially a free player since the Padres were covering almost all of his remaining salary, the Sox were looking for either a more productive bat, or at least to more firmly clear a path for top prospect Casas.

After surpassing the luxury tax threshold in 2022, the Red Sox are thus far well under the $233MM threshold.  That leaves Bloom with some opportunity to perhaps stay under the tax line, though given how Bloom and ownership were willing to pay the tax for even a rather remote shot at a playoff berth last year, one would imagine the Red Sox wouldn’t balk at paying another tax penalty for the right upside.  Many of the offseason’s top free agents have already come off the board, but the Sox could still pursue other upgrades on the trade market.

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Marlins Sign Garrett Hampson To Minors Contract

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The Marlins have signed utilityman Garrett Hampson to a minor league deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).

Hampson was a third-round pick for the Rockies in the 2016 draft, and he had spent his entire pro career with Colorado before being non-tendered last month.  The 28-year-old was projected to earn $2.1MM in his second trip through the arbitration process, but the Rockies opted to part ways after Hampson hit only .211/.287/.307 over 226 plate appearances in 2022.

Both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America included Hampson near the end of their top-100 prospect lists prior to the 2019 season, owing to Hampson’s high batting average, OBP, and stolen bases totals during his way up the Rockies’ minor league ladder.  Unfortunately for Hampson, he couldn’t translate that potential into any production at the MLB level.  While he has swiped 52 bases in 65 tries, Hampson hit only .235/.296/.370 over 1279 career PA in the majors.

This lack of hitting kept Hampson from firmly establishing himself with Colorado, though the Rox gave him opportunities as more or less an everyday player in 2020-21.  Most of Hampson’s playing time came as a center fielder or second baseman, but he also has quite a bit of shortstop experience and a handful of games as a left fielder and third baseman.

There is a bit of a “jack of all trades, master of none” aspect to Hampson’s versatility, as while he can play several positions, defensive metrics are mixed at best on his glovework anywhere on the field.  Smaller sample sizes are also a factor, though for his two primary positions, Hampson is graded as a slightly below-average but passable second baseman, and the Outs Above Average metric like his work (+8) as a center fielder, while UZR/150 (-1/2) and Defensive Runs Saved (-7) are less impressed.

Miami has long been looking for center field help, and Hampson could at least factor into a mix that includes Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, JJ Bleday, and utilityman Jon Berti.  While a change of scenery might help Hampson at the plate, he could at least give the Marlins some additional utility depth beyond Berti, and Hampson’s speed is also a useful weapon to bring off the bench for pinch-running purposes.  At the cost of just a minor league contract, there’s no risk for the Marlins in giving Hampson a Spring Training audition to see what he can offer.

Twins Interested In Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock

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Justin Turner and AJ Pollock are among the veteran free agents under consideration by the Twins as they look to further bolster their lineup, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports.  Of note, Hayes’ piece was written yesterday prior to Minnesota’s signing of Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11MM contract — Gallo was also listed as a player the Twins were targeting, though his addition could change the equation for other pickups.

In particular, Pollock might no longer be on the radar given how Minnesota’s outfield picture was already pretty crowded even before Gallo joined the roster.  Gallo, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Mark Contreras, Matt Wallner, Gilberto Celestino, and Kyle Garlick are all outfield options for 2023, plus the versatile Nick Gordon could also get some time on the grass when he isn’t in the infield.

That said, there has been some trade speculation surrounding Kepler, and Gallo’s deal might be some hint that the Twins could view Gallo as something of a Kepler replacement.  Furthermore, Buxton, Celestino, and Garlick are the only right-handed hitters within that large outfield grouping, so acquiring Pollock would add more lineup balance and depth at all three outfield positions (though Pollock is no longer a defensive standout at any spot).

The Twins got a close look at Pollock when he played for the division rival White Sox last season, but they hardly saw the veteran at his best.  Pollock’s 92 wRC+ was his lowest in a full season since 2013, and he hit only .245/.292/.389 over 527 plate appearances.  Since he is entering his age-35 season, there is surely concern among some teams that Pollock has started to decline.

On the plus side, Pollock’s overall Statcast numbers were pretty decent, with an above-average strikeout rate and hard-contact numbers.  While his .317 xwOBA was nothing special, his .297 wOBA indicates some degree of bad luck.  Furthermore, Pollock’s overall batting line only took a hit against right-handed pitching — he had a .935 OPS in 133 PA against left-handed pitching in 2022, but a dreadful .593 OPS in 394 PA against righties.

As much as Pollock still looks capable of crushing southpaws, these drastic splits give pause to any club considering Pollock for an everyday job.  The Twins’ plethora of left-handed outfielders would make a platoon or timeshare pretty easy, though it remains to be seen if Pollock would be open to a reduced role.  Pollock already showed confidence in his ability to bounce back by declining his $13MM player option with Chicago and taking a $5MM, essentially making an $8MM bet on himself to find a larger deal on the open market.

There hasn’t been a lot of public interest in Pollock to date, while the Marlins, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks have all been linked to Turner, and at least one team (Miami) has made the infielder a proper offer.  Turner and Pollock were teammates with the Dodgers from 2019-21, and while the 38-year-old Turner is the older of the two, he also figures to be more expensive given the larger interest and a better platform year.

Turner hit .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 PA with Los Angeles in 2022, essentially having a split season in terms of production.  Turner had a measly .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then snapped back into form and had a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.  Considering the unique circumstances (i.e. the lockout, and the shortened Spring Training) of the lead-up to the 2022 campaign, Turner’s slow start could be written off as a product of an unusual offseason.

With the universal DH coming to the National League last year, Turner basically split time between DH and third base.  The Twins could deploy this same strategy, having Turner and Jose Miranda in a timeshare at third base (though both players at right-handed hitters) and using Turner at DH whenever Miranda is at the hot corner.  Apart from one game at second base and one mop-up inning as a pitcher, Turner has played only third base since the start of the 2017 season, but he could theoretically factor into the first base mix as well.

Christian Vazquez’s three-year, $30MM contract represents Minnesota’s biggest expenditure of the winter, and even with Gallo added, the Twins’ payroll still projects under the $118MM threshold.  That is well under the $134.4MM the Twins spend on their Opening Day roster last year, and given how Minnesota made a concerted effort to try and re-sign Carlos Correa to a pricey new contract, the Twins clearly have money to spend or re-allocate now that Correa has joined the Giants.

Dodgers Sign Bradley Zimmer To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers are set to sign outfielder Bradley Zimmer to a minor league contract, The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports (via Twitter).  The Blue Jays non-tendered Zimmer in November rather than pay him a projected $1.3MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility.

Zimmer was a member of three different organizations in 2022, as he was traded from the Guardians to the Jays in April, and then claimed off waivers by the Phillies in August.  Toronto claimed Zimmer back just over a week later, and Zimmer finished the season in a Blue Jays uniform.  Over 117 total plate appearances with Toronto and Philadelphia, Zimmer hit only .124/.207/.229.

This lack of production outweighed the theoretical benefit that Zimmer’s left-handed bat brought to the Blue Jays’ extremely right-handed lineup, and he likely wouldn’t have received nearly as many at-bats had it not been for some injuries to Toronto’s starting outfielders.  However, Zimmer added value off the bench as a pinch-runner, and he continued to deliver quality defense.  Over 1783 1/3 career MLB innings as a center fielder, Zimmer has positive grades in Outs Above Average (+10), Defensive Runs Saved (+13), and UZR/150 (+3.6).

Once a top-100 prospect in his days in Cleveland’s farm system, Zimmer hasn’t been able to hit at the big league level, and now might be settling into a role as a depth outfielder at age 30.  His glove and speed will continue to get get him looks for teams in need of outfield depth, and some extra help on the grass could help a Dodgers team that has parted ways with Cody Bellinger.  Trayce Thompson projects as the new regular center fielder, but with Thompson’s own inconsistent track record before coming to Los Angeles, it makes sense that the Dodgers want some extra help in the minors.  It’s possible Zimmer could essentially fill the depth role Kevin Pillar was slated for in 2022, before Pillar underwent season-ending shoulder surgery.

Astros Have Some Interest In Jurickson Profar

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The signing of Jose Abreu filled a big hole at first base for the Astros, but the reigning World Series champions continue to explore ways to upgrade their outfield.  Past reports have suggested that free agents like Michael Conforto or old friend Michael Brantley are on Houston’s radar, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) adds Jurickson Profar as a new name under consideration.

Profar hit the open market after opting out of the final year (and leaving $6.5MM on the table) of his three-year deal with the Padres.  After some disappointing numbers in the first year of that contract, Profar rebounded to hit .243/.331/.391 with 15 homers over a career-best 658 plate appearances in 2022, and his offense translated to a 110 wRC+.

While this performance was strong enough for Profar (who turns 30 in February) to feel comfortable in exercising his opt-out clause, it does continue the roller-coaster nature of his last five seasons.  Alternating between solidly above and solidly below the league-average 100 wRC+ threshold, Profar clocks in at a 101 wRC+ in 2384 PA since the start of the 2018 season.  Between this inconsistency and Profar’s okay but not outstanding left field glove, it makes sense why teams have perhaps been hesitant about making a push for his services.  The Astros are the first team publicly linked to Profar since the offseason started.

MLBTR’s projection of a two-year, $20MM deal for Profar reflected these concerns about his market, but things could certainly pick up now that several other big free agents have some off the board.  Profar has the highest fWAR of any remaining free agent outfielder, and his offensive profile does contain such positives as a consistently low strikeout rate, and an increasingly excellent walk rate over the last two seasons.  While there has certainly been plenty of year-to-year variance in Profar’s numbers, it can be argued that he might still be a safer choice than either Brantley or Conforto, both of whom are coming off shoulder surgeries.  (Conforto didn’t even end up playing in 2022.)

Profar played only left field in San Diego last season, but he bounced around the diamond to play first base, second base, and the other two outfield positions in 2021.  While not the kind of true utilityman who could replace Aledmys Diaz (who signed with the A’s), Profar could at least provide some extra depth on the Astros’ roster.  The switch-hitting Profar could also help balance out a Houston lineup that is still heavy in right-handed bats.

Steve Cohen Discusses Mets’ Pursuit Of Carlos Correa: “We Got There Late”

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Just before Carlos Correa signed his 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants, the Mets made an attempt to try land the star shortstop.  Mets owner Steve Cohen shed more light on that pursuit in an interview with Jon Heyman of the New York Post, as Cohen said that he contacted Correa’s agent Scott Boras an offer of roughly $300MM.  By that point, however, the Giants and Correa’s camp were already deep enough into negotiations that Boras and company didn’t want to turn back.

As Cohen simply put it, “we got there late” on Correa’s market.  “We thought maybe he might fall to us….He’s a great leader and a good guy.  He could play third base.  And he’s a great defender.”

Position changes have been floated for all of Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson in various permutations by several teams this winter, as even at the very top of the shortstop market, clubs creatively explored ways to fit these players into a lineup even if another good shortstop was already on the roster.  In New York, of course, Francisco Lindor is already locked into the shortstop role through the 2031 season, and thus Correa would’ve had to move to the hot corner.

Lindor’s presence made the Mets something of a bystander on the shortstop market, but when Correa lingered on the market, Cohen checked in with Boras to see if something could be done.  Eduardo Escobar (signed to a two-year, $20MM deal just last offseason) is the Mets’ current third baseman, but if Correa had been signed, Escobar would’ve presumably become an overqualified utility infielder, or perhaps a trade chip.

It’s also fair to say that Cohen’s attention might’ve been busy elsewhere, preventing him from making an earlier bid on Correa.  New York has already re-signed Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, and brought Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, and Omar Narvaez into the fold during an extraordinary free agent splurge.  The result is a payroll that sits at roughly $343.56MM, and a luxury tax number of $356.3MM — both records in MLB history.

“No one likes to spend money.  But this is the price” of doing business, Cohen said, as the Mets want to win but aren’t interested in trading from their farm system.  If this means operating at a loss in order to chase a World Series, that is fine in Cohen’s view.  Also, the owner noted that the club also had a lot of holes to fill (mostly on the pitching staff) given its own extensive free agent class.  While Nimmo and Diaz were retained, Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, and Joely Rodriguez have all signed elsewhere.

“My team is good.  But it isn’t that much better than last year.  If you want a team that’s good, this is what it costs.  What are you going to do?” Cohen asked rhetorically.

As much as there doesn’t appear to be a limit on New York’s spending, Cohen did say that Correa’s market conditions played a role in the Mets’ interest, as he was going to pursue a signing “that made sense…and not get crazy.”  The fact that a $300MM offer on top of the Mets’ other spending doesn’t qualify as “crazy” is yet another eye-popping example of how Cohen is redefining baseball’s payroll limits, and yet “I’ve been dealing with big numbers for so long these numbers don’t scare me at all.  It’s not like I’m not respectful about what these other teams have to deal with.”

Dodgers Sign J.D. Martinez

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The Dodgers have agreed to a one-year contract with J.D. Martinez, FanSided’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link), pending a physical.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Martinez will receive $10MM.  Martinez is represented by the Boras Corporation.

There hasn’t been much public buzz about Martinez’s trip through free agency, as just earlier today, another Heyman report about the Red Sox possibly having interest in re-signing the veteran slugger marked the first team linked to Martinez since he hit the open market.  While Martinez didn’t have many known suitors, the Dodgers were operating quietly, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that L.A. “targeted Martinez early in free agency.”  According to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, the Dodgers also had interest in Martinez prior to last summer’s trade deadline.

Martinez will now end up in Los Angeles after all, and be reunited with a few familiar faces.  Former Red Sox teammate Mookie Betts is now a fixture at Dodger Stadium, of course, and Martinez has a long history with Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc.  It was Martinez’s work with Van Scoyoc in the 2013-14 offseason that helped get his career on track, and turned Martinez into one of baseball’s better hitters of the last decade.

Since those first fateful sessions with Van Scoyoc and Craig Wallenbrock, Martinez has hit .295/.362/.547 with 258 homers over 4916 plate appearances with the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox.  That production led to five All-Star appearances, three Silver Slugger Awards, a key role on Boston’s 2018 World Series championship team, and one big free agent payday in the form of Martinez’s five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox in the 2017-18 offseason.

The 2020 season was something of an outlier for Martinez, as he struggled badly in the shortened season and was open with how the COVID-19 dugout protocols interrupted his usual routine.  With that year perhaps simply a writeoff due to unusual circumstances, 2022 marked the first sign of decline in Martinez’s production, even if his 119 wRC+ over 596 PA was still solidly above the league average.  Martinez still hit .274/.341/.448, but his homer total (16), Isolated Power figure (.174) and slugging percentage were all his lowest in a regulation-sized season since 2013.  In addition, Martinez’s hard-hit percentage dropped off sharply from his career norms, even if his 41.7% total was still in the 60th percentile of all batters.

On paper, a move from Fenway Park to Dodger Stadium isn’t ideal for a player looking to regain his power stroke.  However, the change of scenery and a reunion with Van Scoyoc makes Martinez into a very interesting bounce-back candidate for 2023.  Even if he “only” has another season in the neighborhood of 119 wRC+, the Dodgers will happily take that kind of offensive upgrade within a lineup that has already lost Trea Turner and Cody Bellinger to free agency.

2022 marked the first season that Martinez played exclusively as a designated hitter, and that will surely be his primary role in Los Angeles even if he does pick up the glove for an occasional appearance as a corner outfielder.  Martinez doesn’t bring the defensive versatility that the Dodgers usually prefer, but the club has enough other versatile players that the overall roster flexibility won’t be much hurt by Martinez getting the bulk of DH at-bats. Max Muncy will now mostly toggle between second and third base, with Chris Taylor also capable of playing either position and prospect Miguel Vargas in line for more playing time at third base.  Gavin Lux, meanwhile, is slated to move from second base to replace Turner as the everyday shortstop.

The addition of Martinez creates an obvious question about whether or not free agent Justin Turner has played his last game in Dodger blue.  Heyman tweets that the Dodgers still have interest in Turner, who has also drawn interest from such teams as the Marlins and Diamondbacks this winter.  If Turner was re-signed, L.A. could slot Turner in at third base, moving Muncy to second base and keeping Taylor primarily as an outfielder.  Vargas would be the odd man out in this scenario, though the Dodgers may prefer to either bring him along slowly, or rely on more experienced players as the club chases another World Series ring.

Of course, there has also been a sense that the Dodgers are willing to lean more heavily than usual on Vargas and other up-and-comers in 2023, given how the team might be looking to duck under the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Martinez’s $10MM salary bumps the Dodgers’ tax number to roughly $210.3MM, as per Roster Resource.  It still leaves L.A. with more room to spend, but Trevor Bauer’s appeal of his two-year suspension looms large, as an arbiter is expected to rule on the appeal at some point before the end of January.  If the Dodgers have to end up paying some or all of the two years’ worth of salary wiped out by Bauer’s suspension, it could put them near or over the CBT line yet again.

To this end, Martinez’s contract is relatively inexpensive enough that it isn’t necessarily a hint in either direction about how the Dodgers might feel the arbiter will rule.  With that appeal still an X-factor for the remainder of the Dodgers’ winter business, they might’ve felt the investment in Martinez was still worth making, given his appeal and comeback potential.

The one-year length is also somewhat notable, as MLBTR projected Martinez for a two-year, $30MM pact.  It could be that Martinez accepted the shorter deal in order to play for a contender and to reunite with Betts and Van Scoyoc, or he and agent Scott Boras could view this as something of a pillow contract.  If and when Martinez does rebound from his 2022 season, it would put Martinez in line for a larger multi-year pact next winter, even as he’s entering his age-36 season.  The Dodgers have yet to ink a player to a multi-year deal this winter, as Martinez, Noah Syndergaard, Shelby Miller, and the re-signed Clayton Kershaw are only signed through the 2023 campaign.

Mets Sign Kodai Senga

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TODAY: The Mets officially announced Senga’s deal.

DECEMBER 10: The Mets have agreed to a five-year, $75MM deal with right-hander Kodai Senga, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (Twitter links).  Senga’s contract also has no-trade protection and an opt-out clause following the 2025 season, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).  The deal will become official when Senga passes a physical.  Senga is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

The contract figure exactly matches the projection from MLBTR, as Senga ranked 11th on the list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents.  There is no further posting fee involved in the Mets’ costs, since Senga became a full free agent after exercising an opt-out clause in his contract with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.

Senga turns 30 in January, and he leaves the Hawks after 11 outstanding seasons.  The righty has a 2.59 ERA, 28.22% strikeout rate, and 9.33% walk rate over 1089 innings at Japan’s highest level.  Senga’s four-pitch arsenal is highlighted by an excellent splitter and a fastball that routinely hits the upper-90s.  Scouting reports indicate that Senga’s control is sometimes inconsistent, but otherwise, many pundits feel his stuff can translate quite well to North American baseball.

It was just over a year ago that Senga signed a new five-year deal with the Hawks, but with the important proviso of the opt-out clause that he was widely expected to use, assuming he amassed the necessary service time needed for full free agency.  That was a key step in the process, as the Hawks (unlike several other NPB teams) don’t make their players available for the NPB/MLB posting system.  In discussing his plan to move to North American baseball, Senga said last year that “as a ballplayer, it’s essential to live my life always aiming higher,” and it can be argued that he more than achieved his goals in Japanese baseball.  The right-hander’s resume includes five Japan Series titles with the Hawks, three NPB All-Star appearances, two placements on the Pacific League’s Best Nine team, and (outside of league play) an Olympic gold medal with Japan’s baseball team in 2021.

Between Senga’s potential and the overall demand for pitching this offseason, it isn’t surprising that multiple teams were monitoring his market.  The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, and Padres were the other clubs known to have interest, and agent Joel Wolfe implied that as many as a dozen MLB teams had checked in on his client.  Multiple five- and six-year offers were on the table for Senga, and while he elected for a five-year option from the Mets, the opt-out allows Senga the possibility of re-entering the market and possibly landing extra years and more money as he enters his age-33 season.

Heading into the offseason, the Mets faced the challenge of a large free agent class that included a star closer (Edwin Diaz) and most of the bullpen altogether, their starting center fielder (Brandon Nimmo), and the majority of their starting rotation in the form of Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, and Chris Bassitt.  However, with the Winter Meetings only just passed, New York has already addressed most of those holes by re-signing Diaz and Nimmo, and replacing that trio of starters with Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, and now Senga.  If that wasn’t enough, the Mets further bolstered the relief corps by signing David Robertson and acquiring Brooks Raley in a trade from the Rays.

There wasn’t any doubt that owner Steve Cohen was prepared to keep spending in order to keep his 101-game winning team in line to be World Series contenders.  However, the spending spree has just continued to reach record levels, as Roster Resource projects the Mets for a 2023 payroll of roughly $334.68MM, and a luxury tax number of just over $349.5MM.

This not only dwarfs the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, it even soars past the fourth and highest ($293MM) tier of the CBT.  The fourth tier was instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement as a further penalty for excessive spending, and was unofficially nicknamed the “Steve Cohen Tax” given how the owner made no secret of his intentions to heavily increase payroll.  Since this is the Mets’ second consecutive year of tax overage, they’ll face a two-time repeater penalty, as well as a 90 percent overage tax on any dollar spent beyond the $233MM mark.  This works out to around $104.85MM in tax penalty — according to Fangraphs, 11 teams currently aren’t slated to spend more than $104.85MM on their entire 2023 payrolls.

With the Mets already in uncharted financial territory, even more big moves could possibly be in store for Cohen and GM Billy Eppler.  Since the luxury tax doesn’t appear to be any more than a speed bump to the Amazins’ plans, the club might continue to add high-priced talent, and not even bother with trying to get under the $293MM threshold for any kind of mild lessening of its CBT bill.

On paper, the bullpen looks like it could use some more reinforcement, and catcher also looks like a weaker position except top prospect Francisco Alvarez is expected to get more big league playing time in 2023.  The rotation now looks completely set with Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana, and Carlos Carrasco making up the starting five.  Speculatively, the Mets might even feel comfortable enough in their depth to shop one of their backup starters (i.e. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Elieser Hernandez) in trade talks with a pitching-needy team.  Or, given the older ages and some of the injury uncertainty surrounding the Mets’ starters, New York might also simply opt to retain as much pitching depth as possible.

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White Sox Sign Billy Hamilton To Minors Contract

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The White Sox have signed outfielder Billy Hamilton to a minor league contract, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin reports (Twitter link).  Hamilton will receive an invitation to Chicago’s big league Spring Training camp.

This is Hamilton’s second stint with the White Sox, after he played in 71 games with the club in 2021.  Playing mostly as a part-time outfielder, late-inning defensive sub, and pinch-runner, Hamilton delivered his signature blend of strong defense and speed (a perfect 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts) while also making 135 trips to the plate for the AL Central champions.

Hamilton’s skillset made him an intriguing player early in his career, as he finished second in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2014 with the Reds, and he stole 230 bases (out of 282 chances) with Cincinnati from 2014-17.  However, Hamilton has never hit above a replacement level, turning him into a journeyman as he looks to enter his 11th Major League season.  The 32-year-old has suited up for eight different teams at the MLB level, with 690 of his 948 appearances coming in a Cincinnati uniform.

Playing time has been a lot more sporadic for Hamilton since his Reds tenure ended, and he has bounced around the league on a series of minor league deals.  In 2022, Hamilton inked minors contracts with the Mariners, Marlins, and Twins, ultimately getting to the big leagues for 20 games with Miami and 17 for Minnesota.

Though the smaller sample sizes of playing time make it somewhat harder for Hamilton to be properly gauged by defensive metrics, he still appears to have a solid glove capable of handling any outfield position.  He’ll be a useful depth piece for the White Sox considering Luis Robert’s injury history, and Gavin Sheets’ struggles in the outfield.  The Sox shored up left field in a big way by signing Andrew Benintendi this week, and prospect Oscar Colas is knocking on the door to split time with (or perhaps supplant) Sheets for right field duties.

Reds Looking To Trade Shortstop Prospects For Outfield Prospects

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Reds general manager Nick Krall has said that his team has at least looked into some trades that would involve the Reds and another club swapping young, controllable players.  Providing further detail to Krall’s comments, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal hears from a rival executive that Cincinnati is looking to acquire a young outfielder in exchange for a younger shortstop prospect, and that the Reds “are aggressively pursuing” such deals.

Over the last year, the Reds turned into rebuild mode by trading multiple veteran players (i.e. Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley) in order to reduce payroll and restock the system with minor league talent.  On paper, the early steps of this plan have worked quite nicely — back in August, Baseball America placed the Reds fifth in their rankings of each organization’s minor league talent depth.  Both BA and MLB Pipeline have five Cincinnati prospects listed in their current top-100 rankings, with shortstop Elly De La Cruz sitting at the top of the pile.  Pipeline has De La Cruz as the 14th-best prospect in the sport, with Baseball America placing De La Cruz 20th.

With De La Cruz as the crown jewel, the Reds already had a good amount of infield prospect depth even before their moves at this past summer’s trade deadline.  Cincy landed Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo from the Mariners in the Castillo trade, and Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were then acquired from the Twins as part of the Mahle deal.  Marte and Arroyo both sit firmly within the top 100 rankings (Pipeline has Marte 17th, not far behind De La Cruz), while Steer already made his MLB last season and is likely headed for more regular playing time in 2023.

Steer is more of a second baseman or third baseman than a shortstop, and Encarnacion-Strand is more firmly a corner infielder.  It also remains to be seen if Marte will necessarily remain at shortstop, or if De La Cruz might even be moved to a outfield role — as Rosenthal notes, the Reds have been experimenting with several of their young infielders at various positions around the diamond and on the grass to try and find playing time for everyone.

That said, while some of these prospects may eventually wind up in the outfield in the future, the Reds seem interested in simplifying the matter and dealing from their infield surplus to find some true outfielders.  Adding to the intrigue is that many of Cincinnati’s prospects are knocking on the door for their MLB debuts, as De La Cruz, Encarnacion-Strand, and 2021 first-rounder Matt McLain could all get their first cup of coffee in the Show in 2023.

With high-caliber prospects to offer, the Reds can explore plenty of possible trade options around the league.  In regards to their focus on outfielders, the Diamondbacks seem like a logical trade partner, and Cincinnati is naturally one of the many clubs interested in the group of Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, and Dominic Fletcher.  All of these players except Fletcher have already debuted in the majors, and since the D’Backs are prioritizing players who can help them immediately, Arizona might prefer a more established player rather than another up-and-comer from Cincy’s farm system.

It is probably safe to assume that whatever trades the Reds consider, their blue chip prospects are less likely to be on the move, and a burgeoning star like De La Cruz is virtually untouchable.  A month away from his 21st birthday, De La Cruz has quickly gone from being an anonymous international signing to one of baseball’s top prospects over the last two seasons, and even a possible five-tool talent.  Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently spoke with minor league players, coaches, broadcasters and scouts about De La Cruz, and the shortstop garnered rave reviews across the board.  According to one AL scout, “He’s the most athletic player I’ve ever seen.  I could throw out some legendary names of athletes, but I’d rather not because I don’t want to put extra pressure on a kid.  But I’ve never seen anybody even close with his athleticism to be quite honest.”

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