Mark Polishuk | MLB Trade Rumors

Latest On Teoscar Hernandez’s Market

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 2:17pm CDT

2:17PM: The Blue Jays also have interest in Hernandez but Anthony Santander appears to be Toronto’s chief backup target if Soto isn’t signed, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link).

1:44PM: The Dodgers and Red Sox were previously linked to Teoscar Hernandez’s market earlier this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports that the Yankees are also looking at the free agent slugger. The three suitors all have “serious interest” in Hernandez’s services, with one noteworthy caveat — all three clubs are in the running to land Juan Soto, so Hernandez is viewed as the natural backup plan for all parties if Soto can’t be signed.

The Mets and Blue Jays are the two other teams known to still be pursuing Soto. At the moment, all five teams seem to be still be under consideration even if the Mets and Yankees have reportedly pushed the bidding up into the range of $710-$730MM. Los Angeles is thought to be the least aggressive of Soto’s five suitors and perhaps seems more likely to break away from the pack to pivot towards Hernandez or another option, but Cotillo figures Hernandez won’t make his own decision until after Soto signs.

Hernandez has openly said that returning to the Dodgers is “the priority” of his offseason, and “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….It feels great to be part of this.” After a down year with the Mariners in 2023, Hernandez rebounded in the best possible way by winning a World Series and hitting .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs over 652 plate appearances with L.A. last season. Hernandez inked a one-year, $23.5MM contract last winter and now looks poised to land a much heftier multi-year deal this time around.

As sources tell Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe (X link), Hernandez’s preference is still to remain with Los Angeles, though the Red Sox have a solid case in their own right for the slugger’s services. The Sox made a push for Hernandez last year in offering him a two-year, $28MM deal that Hernandez turned down in order to take the greater flexibility of the Dodgers’ one-year offer, plus L.A. was the more clear-cut contender heading into 2024. Hernandez “has long been intrigued by the idea of playing at Fenway Park and he’s a fan of Alex Cora,” Abraham writes, so with a World Series ring now in tow, Hernandez could now explore a move to Boston and perhaps a big role in a future Red Sox championship team.

The Yankees shouldn’t be overlooked as contenders, as Hernandez has also enjoyed a lot of success at Yankee Stadium over the years. New York might have the most incentive of all these teams to bolster the lineup if Soto departs, even if adding a big bat in the infield is also a priority since Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo are free agents and unlikely to return.

Rejecting the Dodgers’ qualifying offer probably won’t have much impact on Hernandez’s market, though the Yankees and Red Sox would face a differing penalty level for signing the outfielder (or any player who rejected a QO). Because New York was a luxury tax payor in 2024, signing Hernandez would cost the Yankees $1MM in international bonus pool money and their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft. Boston would have to give up $500K of int’l pool funds and their second-highest 2025 draft pick. Los Angeles, of course, wouldn’t have to give up anything to sign Hernandez, as he is one of the Dodgers’ own free agents.

Mets Sign Oliver Ortega To Minors Contract

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 2:10pm CDT

The Mets have signed right-hander Oliver Ortega to a minor league deal that includes an invitation to New York’s big league spring camp, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (X link). Ortega was outrighted off the Astros’ 40-man roster in November, and since it wasn’t his first career outright, he chose to enter free agency.

The 28-year-old Ortega made his Major League debut in 2021, and he has a 4.03 ERA, 20.4% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate over 58 career relief innings with the Angels and Twins. After Houston claimed him off waivers from the Twins in October 2023, Ortega’s tenure as an Astro came and went without a single game played in either the majors or minors. A pair of surgeries cost Ortega the entire 2024 season, as an initial procedure in Spring Training to remove loose bodies from his throwing elbow didn’t take, and he needed another surgery in late June to remove a bone spur from that same right elbow.

While a minor league deal doesn’t represent a huge commitment, the Mets seem satisfied enough with Ortega’s health situation to at least give him a look during Spring Training. Ortega’s career Triple-A numbers include a 3.61 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.42% walk rate over 72 1/3 innings, so he might be able to tap into that potential if he can improve his control against big league hitters.

Report: Diamondbacks Explored Montgomery/Bellinger Trade With Cubs

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 12:43pm CDT

There has been plenty of trade speculation surrounding the Diamondbacks’ Jordan Montgomery and the Cubs’ Cody Bellinger this offseason, as both players have outsized salaries and are somewhat imperfect roster fits on their respective clubs. These same issues have seemingly led to a rather quiet trade market for either player to date, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Arizona “tried to get the Cubs interested in a swap” involving the two players. It isn’t known if the proposed deal was a straight one-for-one trade or if other players were involved, though it could be a moot point since the Cubs apparently didn’t have much interest.

Bellinger chose to pass on his opt-out clause in the wake of only an okay 2024 season, leaving him on Chicago’s roster through the 2026 season for $52.5MM in remaining salary. This breaks down as $27.5MM in 2025, and then Bellinger can either opt out of the final year of the deal and pocket a $5MM buyout on his way back to free agency, or he can again forego the opt-out clause and earn $25MM in 2026.

Montgomery also decided against opting out of the final year of his two-year deal Arizona, and will receive $22.5MM for the 2025 season. Whereas a case could’ve been made for Bellinger to test the market again this winter, there was no doubt Montgomery would be staying in his contract in the wake of a disastrous first season with the D’Backs. Montgomery signed with Arizona just before Opening Day and then struggled to a 6.23 ERA over 117 innings, seemingly a by-product of missing Spring Training and not having a proper ramp-up due to his extended stint in free agency.

D’Backs owner Ken Kendrick was publicly critical of the Montgomery signing during a radio interview back in October, which was viewed as either some surprisingly harsh honesty from an executive about a player, or as Kendrick’s attempt to try and get Montgomery to opt out of his contract just to pursue a fresh start elsewhere. If the latter, the tactic obviously didn’t work, and Nightengale writes that “the Diamondbacks are shopping [Montgomery] everywhere” to try and move that salary off the books.

A Montgomery-for-Bellinger trade is fascinating for several reasons, beginning with the simple fact that they were both members of the so-called “Boras Four.” Along with Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, Montgomery and Bellinger were both represented by agent Scott Boras last offseason, and all four players ended up settling for shorter-term contracts with opt-out after lengthy stints in free agency didn’t result in the lucrative longer-term pacts each player was looking to score. It should be noted that Chapman and Snell have now found such contracts in the last few months — Chapman via his extension with the Giants and Snell’s new five-year deal with the Dodgers.

From a pure baseball perspective, swapping Montgomery for Bellinger helps the D’Backs and Cubs each address some needs. Bellinger would bring offense to an Arizona team that might be losing Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk in free agency, and Bellinger could slot right in as a replacement for Walker at first base. While Bellinger’s left-handed bat would further imbalance a Diamondbacks lineup that is already heavy with lefty swingers, Bellinger’s ability to play the outfield could make the D’Backs more comfortable in trading one of their in-house left-handed hitting outfielders. Jake McCarthy or Alek Thomas are the likeliest trade candidates, since obviously Corbin Carroll isn’t going anywhere.

The Diamondbacks have a rotation surplus that is also drawing trade interest, and moving Montgomery to the Cubs would help Chicago bolster the back of its rotation. Matthew Boyd was recently signed to join Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon in the Cubs’ starting five, and though Javier Assad is lined up for that fifth starter’s job, the Cubs are reportedly open to more additions in the starting pitching department. Trading for Montgomery would give Chicago its own semi-surplus of rotation options that could be turned into trade chips, and also move Bellinger out of the Cub’ crowded outfield and first base situation.

Despite his rough 2024 numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Montgomery rebound to his old self now that he’ll have the benefit of a normal offseason. It’s probably safe to assume that he’d be a popular bounce-back candidate in trade talks if it wasn’t for the $22.5MM price tag, as rival teams might not want to make quite that big of a bet that Montgomery can regain his old form.

The Astros, Mariners, and Yankees have all shown some degree of interest in Bellinger, and New York in particular could emerge as a stronger suitor if the team doesn’t re-sign Juan Soto. Even if the numbers haven’t matched up to date for the Cubs in finding a trade partner for Bellinger, this active market could be a reason why the Cubs are aiming a bit higher in their pursuits than perhaps settling for Montgomery in a swap of unfavorable contracts.

While Bellinger might yet opt out after 2025, the Diamondbacks would be facing the bigger financial burden in taking on two years of salary in exchange for Montgomery’s final remaining year. After the 2025 season, however, a good deal of money is coming off Arizona’s books, as Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly are all free agents next winter. That could make fitting Bellinger into the 2026 payroll a bit more palatable for the Snakes.

Pirates Sign Tanner Rainey, Hunter Stratton To Minor League Contracts

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 11:14am CDT

The Pirates have signed right-handers Tanner Rainey and Hunter Stratton to minors deals, as respectively reported by Just Baseball’s Aram Leighton (X link) and Stratton’s MLB.com profile page. Rainey’s contract contains an invitation to the Pirates’ big league spring camp, and it can be assumed that Stratton’s deal also has an invite, though Stratton’s uncertain health situation in the wake of knee surgery could limit his participation in Spring Training.

Rainey heads to Pittsburgh after a topsy-turvy six-year run with the Nationals, highlighted by a World Series ring in his first year with the club. Rainey delivered a 3.91 ERA and 34.6% strikeout rate in 48 1/3 relief innings for that 2019 championship team, but also had an ugly 17.8% walk rate. These control issues plagued Rainey for most of his time in Washington, and he also missed virtually all of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

After Rainey posted a 4.76 ERA, 19% strikeout rate, and 12.6% walk rate over 51 innings in 2024, the Nationals unsurprisingly decided to non-tender the righty, even though Rainey was projected for a modest $1.9MM arbitration salary. Now entering his age-32 season, Rainey will look to rebuild himself in the Bucs’ spring camp, and hopefully regain some of the form and velocity that made him a valuable bullpen asset for the Nats in 2020 and 2022.

Stratton was also non-tendered by the Pirates in November, but there was an expectation that Pittsburgh would (just as they did last offseason) re-sign the righty to a new minor league deal. Stratton has an impressive 3.26 ERA and 4.9% walk rate across 49 2/3 career Major League innings, all with Pittsburgh over the last two seasons. Despite a lack of big strikeout totals, Stratton’s ability to induce soft contact has made him an interesting relief option out of the Pirates’ bullpen.

Unfortunately for Stratton, his 2024 season was cut short by a flukish injury on August 24 that left him with a ruptured patellar tendon. Stratton was behind home plate at PNC Park and pursuing a loose ball when he stumbled into the stone wall, causing the injury and putting his career on hold for an estimated 7-10 months. This fluid timeline means that Stratton would return anywhere from Opening Day to late June, but the minor league contract gives him plenty of time to fully get himself right during Spring Training or in the Pirates’ farm system.

Tigers Interested In Ha-Seong Kim

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 10:38am CDT

The Tigers have shown interest in infielder Ha-Seong Kim, as related by the Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold in a recent appearance on the Days Of Roar podcast. The Blue Jays, Giants, and Kim’s former team the Padres have all been publicly connected to Kim this offseason, though it is fair to guess that San Francisco may be out of the running after signing Willy Adames.

As recently noted by Anthony Franco in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, Kim is one of the trickiest players to evaluate within the 2024-25 free agent class, owing to the shoulder surgery that Kim underwent in late September. Kim will miss some time at the start of the 2025 season, though the exact timeline is up in the air — agent Scott Boras said a late-April return is possible, while Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in October said Kim might not be ready until “May, June, July.” It should be noted that Preller was speaking broadly on the topic rather than giving any sort of definitive timeline, yet even raising the possibility of a three-month range adds to the uncertainty over Kim’s health.

Some teams have still floated the idea of signing Kim to a multi-year contract, though the exact nature of such offers aren’t clear. It would be risky to offer Kim something like four or five guaranteed years, but a two-year contract (likely with a player opt-out after 2025) seems entirely plausible. Kim and agent Scott Boras might also seek out a flat one-year deal with the same idea of Kim getting to quickly re-enter the market next winter, ostensibly on the heels of a healthier and productive platform year. MLBTR’s projection of a one-year, $12MM contract for Kim supports this strategy, though Boras is no stranger to creative deals that provide his clients with plenty of flexibility.

A shorter-term contract might have more appeal to the Tigers, who are reportedly seeking out such deals in regards to starting pitchers. Now that Detroit is coming off a wild card berth and an ALDS appearance, the expectation has been that ownership and president of baseball operations Scott Harris will be somewhat more aggressive in upgrading on seems like a winning core, though the Tigers’ offseason has been pretty quiet to date, albeit with some rumors of interest in Jack Flaherty or Alex Bregman.

From a pure baseball perspective, a healthy Kim would be an ideal fit for the Tigers in many ways. As Petzold notes, Kim’s speed and high-contact/low-strikeout approach greatly helps a Tigers team that finished near the bottom of the league in OBP and stolen bases, plus Kim’s right-handed bat adds balance to Detroit’s lefty-heavy lineup. Kim is also a strong defensive player at multiple infield positions, so he could address the team’s needs at either third base or shortstop.

Javier Baez is still technically the incumbent starting shortstop, but his stock is at an all-time low after three increasingly poor seasons in Detroit and a hip surgery that ended his 2024 campaign in August. Baez is still owed $73MM through the 2027 season, and since the Tigers would just be eating the money anyway in releasing him, the team might as well give Baez another chance at the start of the season to see if his surgery has perhaps corrected any of the health issues that led to his dropoff in production.

Trey Sweeney stepped into the shortstop role after Baez’s season ended prematurely, and Sweeney played well enough to put himself into the conversation for more regular playing time as well. If the Tigers signed Kim, Detroit could just stick with Baez and Sweeney at shortstop until Kim is ready to play, and then evaluate whether Kim could just take over at shortstop, or perhaps play third base if Baez or Sweeney are having productive seasons.

AL East Notes: O’Neill, Grichuk, Holmes, Rays

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 9:46am CDT

At the end of last season, both Tyler O’Neill and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow expressed interest in the possibility of O’Neill returning to Boston on a new contract. That possibility is now officially off the board after O’Neill signed a three-year, $49.5MM deal with the Orioles yesterday, and as per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (Bluesky link), the Sox “were not very aggressive” in their attempts to re-sign the outfielder. Boston’s pursuit of Juan Soto simply took precedence, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes, as since the Red Sox are one of the teams still waiting on Soto to make his decision, the Sox didn’t make O’Neill any offers.

Mets Interested In Eovaldi, Manaea, Pivetta, Flaherty

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 9:03am CDT

The Mets’ offseason has thus far revolved around their pursuit of Juan Soto and their attempts to reload a pitching staff full of free agents. Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana are on the open market and Luis Severino has already departed to sign a three-year, $67MM deal with the Athletics. New York has responded by signing Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes to relatively inexpensive contracts, but the team could be looking at further bolstering the rotation with a bigger splash.

Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, and Jack Flaherty are three of the names the Mets have shown interest in this winter, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon. Re-signing Manaea is also still a possibility, as Rosenthal/Sammon note that the Mets remain open to a reunion with the left-hander.

Montas signed a two-year, $34MM contract, while the Mets gave Holmes $38MM over a three-year deal. Given that Eovaldi has a lengthy injury history and is entering his age-35 season, his next contract isn’t likely to surpass three years in length, which fits David Stearns’ preferred method of giving shorter-term contracts to pitchers. MLBTR projected Eovaldi to land a two-year, $44MM contract, though it is easy to imagine Eovaldi landing more from the Mets or another team considering how many pitchers have already landed higher-than-expected paydays this offseason.

Despite his age, Eovaldi has remained a very solid pitcher, and it was just in 2023 that he posted an All-Star season while helping the Rangers win the World Series. The 2024 campaign saw Eovaldi deliver a 3.80 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates, and his 170 2/3 IP marks the third-highest innings total of his 13 big league seasons. The right-hander is no stranger to high-pressure championship games in big markets, and seems like a strong fit on a Mets team that has designs on contending for a World Series in 2025.

Flaherty won a ring himself with the Dodgers just this season, capping off a strong bounce-back season that saw him post a 3.17 ERA over 162 combined innings with Los Angeles and Detroit. The righty is now looking to translate that platform year into a big contract, and since he just turned 29, Flaherty is also younger than Eovaldi, Manaea (33 in February), and Pivetta (32 in February). However, that also means Flaherty is seeking a longer-term deal, with Rosenthal and Sammon figuring a contract of between four and six years.

MLBTR’s projection split that difference with a five-year, $115MM prediction for Flaherty’s next contract. It remains to be seen if the Mets would be willing to meet that price, or if Stearns is wary about giving such a deal to a pitcher who battled injuries and ineffectiveness from 2020-23. This isn’t to say that the Mets president of baseball operations is entirely adverse to longer-term contracts, though Stearns’ chief tactic has been to seek out “the next Flaherty” in the sense of looking for promising arms with bounce-back potential.

Re-signing Manaea is perhaps the most comfortable option given the Mets’ pre-existing familiarity with the veteran left-hander. There was plenty to like about Manaea’s first season in Queens, and he chose to capitalize on his strong season by opting out of the final year of his contract (worth $13.5MM) with the Mets to pursue a bigger deal in free agency. Interestingly, Rosenthal and Sammon write that at least one other team interested in Manaea has discussed the possibility of a four-year contract, which would be a bold commitment to a pitcher of Manaea’s age and somewhat inconsistent track record.

The qualifying offer is also a factor in the Mets’ pursuits. Eovaldi and Flaherty weren’t eligible for the QO and thus no compensation is attached to their services. Manaea and Pivetta both turned down qualifying offers from the Mets and Red Sox, so their next teams will have to surrender some form of draft or international bonus pool capital in order to sign either pitcher. This wouldn’t be an obstacle for the Mets in re-signing Manaea since teams don’t have to give up any compensation to re-sign their own player, but signing Pivetta would cost the Mets $1MM in int’l bonus money plus their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.

Boston’s decision to issue Pivetta was seen as a bit of a surprise, and it could be that being attached to a compensation package might dull Pivetta’s market to some extent. Pivetta is a durable pitcher with quality secondary metrics, yet he was more solid than outstanding over his four-plus seasons with the Red Sox, posting a 4.29 ERA over 633 innings. This might not be enough of a resume to move the Mets to give up two picks and $1MM from their bonus pool, especially since New York might already be giving away such a bounty if they sign Soto (another qualified free agent). Signing two QO-rejecting players would cost the Mets $2MM in pool money, as well as their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest picks in the 2025 draft class, so it doesn’t seem like the Mets would add onto Soto with another qualified free agent.

Yankees Interested In Thairo Estrada

By Mark Polishuk | December 8, 2024 at 8:04am CDT

The Yankees are interested in signing Thairo Estrada, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (X link). New York is now the second team known to be in on Estrada’s market, as the Rockies were also linked to the veteran earlier this week.

There’s plenty of familiarity between the two sides, as Estrada was an international signing for the Yankees back in 2012 and he appeared in 61 games for New York during his first two Major League seasons (2019-20). It wasn’t until after the Yankees traded Estrada to the Giants in April 2021 that the infielder broke out as a productive big leaguer, hitting .266/.320/.416 over 1203 plate appearances for San Francisco during the 2021-23 seasons.

Estrada’s performance dropped off badly last season, however, and the Giants outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of August after Estrada batted only .217/.247/.343 in 381 PA. Wrist problems plagued Estrada for much of the summer, further hampering an offensive approach that has never led to much hard contact. Estrada has also been limited in his capacity to get on base, and his 2.6% walk rate in 2024 was the second-lowest of any player in baseball with at least 350 PA.

In the wake of this down year, Estrada surely isn’t being viewed as a starting candidate in the Bronx, though his versatility makes him an interesting candidate for a part-time or bench role. The large majority of Estrada’s MLB playing time has come at second base, but he has seen a decent amount of time as a shortstop while also chipping in as a third baseman and corner outfielder. Estrada’s career splits are pretty even, yet on paper, his right-handed bat could complement the left-handed hitting Jazz Chisholm Jr., who is expected to hold down the starting role at either second or third base.

Chisholm and shortstop Anthony Volpe have two of the starting infield jobs spoken for, and Chisholm’s versatility gives New York some flexibility in deciding how to address second or third base. Conceivably, the Yankees could add Estrada to their in-house collection of DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Oswald Peraza and let that whole group serve as something of a rotating bench/platoon mix while rotating Chisholm between the keystone and the hot corner. Or, the Bronx Bombers could go bigger with more of an everyday infield option, though those endeavors are probably on hold until the Yankees learn whether or not Juan Soto will be returning to the team.

White Sox Sign Nick Maton To Minor League Contract

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2024 at 2:59pm CDT

The White Sox signed Nick Maton to a minor league deal in late November, as indicated by the infielder’s MLB.com profile page. Aram Leighton of Just Baseball Media (X link) writes that Maton’s contract an invitation to Chicago’s big league Spring Training camp.

Maton played in 179 games with the Phillies and Tigers over his first three Major League seasons, but he made just five appearances with the Orioles in 2024. Baltimore acquired Maton from Detroit last February, and Maton then spent the season bouncing on and off the Orioles’ 40-man roster. Maton was designated for assignment and then outrighted on three separate occasions, and he also spent about a month on the injured list at Triple-A Norfolk.

Between the roster shuffling and the injury absence, Maton was quite productive at the Triple-A level, hitting .258/.363/.471 with 16 homers in 344 plate appearances for Norfolk. This marks the third straight season that Maton has posted strong numbers against Triple-A pitching, and he carried that momentum forward to the MLB level in 2022, posting an .855 OPS in 85 PA with the Phillies.

The Tigers were intrigued enough to bring Maton to Detroit as part of a five-player trade in January 2023, but Matt Vierling ended up being the much more productive utility option for the Tigers in both 2023 and 2024. Maton struggled to a .173/.288/.305 slash line in 293 PA with Detroit, then had an arthroscopic knee surgery last offseason.

As he enters his age-28 season, Maton should have plenty of opportunity to break camp with a White Sox team that needs help all over the diamond. Maton’s ability to play second base, third base, shortstop, and both corner outfield slots makes him an interesting candidate for bench or part-time duty, and his left-handed bat could complement Lenyn Sosa and Miguel Vargas (both righty swingers) at second and third base in particular. The White Sox will give Maton a look in camp and see if he’s a fit, though keeping him as an organizational depth piece could be complicated by the fact that Maton is out of minor league options.

Cardinals Facing “Very Limited” Trade Market For Nolan Arenado

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2024 at 2:24pm CDT

2:24PM: In a follow-up message from Olney on X, he hears from rival executives that the Cardinals will probably have to cover some of Arenado’s salary or take back another unfavorable contract as a salary offset. As a hypothetical, Olney suggests that if the Dodgers wanted Arenado, Chris Taylor and the $17MM remaining on his contract could be offered back to St. Louis to help cover the financial difference. It isn’t known whether or not the Cardinals would be open to eating money or taking an unwanted contract back, which could be a further obstacle towards a trade being completed.

2:04PM: Recent comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicate that the Cardinals may not be entirely viewing 2025 as a rebuild year, though the team has already made some moves with an eye towards reducing payroll. Trading Nolan Arenado would certainly be just about the biggest move St. Louis could make in that effort to get younger and less expensive, though beyond just the $74MM in owed salary, moving Arenado is difficult due to his no-trade clause.

To that end, ESPN’s Buster Olney (X link) writes that Arenado has “a very limited list of…preferred teams” for potential trades. This in turn has left the Cardinals without a ton of leverage in finding an ideal trade fit that would help the Cards recoup something beyond just salary relief for the All-Star third baseman.

Previous reports in regards to Arenado this offseason indicated that he hasn’t directly asked for a trade, but he would be willing to move to first base if such a defensive switch is a better fit for a new team. These two items represent the complicated nature of these trade talks, as Arenado is seemingly ready to be very flexible and accommodating of a trade, but only to a few clubs. It isn’t known exactly how many teams Arenado is willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, or how many of those teams have their own interest in Arenado as a trade candidate.

It is possible that the Arenado situation might have informed Mozeliak’s comments about the organization having “every intention of fielding a good baseball team” in 2025. Willson Contreras has already let the Cards know he isn’t waiving his no-trade protection, and so St. Louis still wanted more time for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages at catcher, the pivot move was installing Contreras as the team’s new regular first baseman. Sonny Gray also has a no-trade clause that he reportedly isn’t keen on waiving, complicating the Cardinals’ efforts to move on from the last two years of Gray’s contract.

If trading Arenado is also going to be unfeasible due to a narrow market, the Cardinals might’ve decided against entirely punting on the 2025 season. Pending free agent Ryan Helsley now seems to be a less-likely trade candidate, further indicating that St. Louis might attempt to rebuild on the fly while still competing in the NL Central. Of course, Mozeliak’s stance on Helsley could also be gamesmanship to drive up offers, and it’s still early enough in the offseason that the Cards might again change lanes depending on how the trade and free agent markets develop in the next few months.

For instance, the third base market will be altered once Alex Bregman and (in the event of a position change) Willy Adames sign their next contracts. The Phillies are also known to be shopping Alec Bohm, giving third-base needy teams another option. None of this might really change things if Arenado simply isn’t willing to expand his list beyond that “very limited” number, but a new team suddenly having a need at third base could perhaps convince Arenado otherwise.

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