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Latest On Athletics’ Pursuit Of Outfielders

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8:15pm: More on the A’s outfield from Slusser, who reports that they’re also interested in one of Piscotty’s teammates, Grichuk, as well as the Reds’ Adam Duvall and the Rays’ Steven Souza Jr. As 30-home run hitters in 2017, Duvall and Souza would provide right-handed punch to the A’s lineup if acquired. They’re also controllable for the next few seasons – Duvall’s under wraps through 2021, including one pre-arbitration year, while Souza’s set to play his first of three arb-eligible campaigns in 2018. He’s projected to earn a very affordable $3.6MM. Grichuk’s another powerful righty entering his first of three arb years, though he didn’t fare as well as Duvall or Souza in 2017.

Meanwhile, the A’s seem uninterested in moving one of their top offensive players, left fielder/designated hitter Khris Davis, per Slusser. They’ve spurned the Red Sox and other teams that have inquired about Davis this winter.

1:04am: The Athletics continue to have interest in the Cardinals’ Stephen Piscotty, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle recently reported and MLB.com’s Jane Lee discusses in a video link. Oakland has been on the hunt this winter for right-handed hitting outfield help.

A previous connection between Piscotty and the A’s surfaced in the aftermath of the trade deadline, as the Cardinals reportedly floated an offer of Piscotty and either Luke Weaver or Jack Flaherty to Oakland in exchange for Sonny Gray.  Those talks never really got off the ground, however, and the A’s subsequently dealt Gray to the Yankees.

As Lee mentions in the video, “the A’s have interest in a ton of outfielders right now,” with the team particularly focused on right-handed bats who are controllable, so the A’s aren’t only looking at veteran options.  The Athletics are clearly willing to shop near the top of the trade market, however, as such names as Avisail Garcia of the White Sox and Marlins outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich (a left-handed hitter) have already been reported as landing on Oakland’s radar in talks.

Piscotty wouldn’t cost as much in a deal as those aforementioned names, given how he struggled in 2017.  After signing a six-year, $33.5MM extension with the Cardinals in April, Piscotty went from building block to potentially expendable piece by hitting just .235/.342/.367 with nine homers over  401 plate appearances.  Groin and hamstring injuries didn’t help his cause, and Piscotty was even demoted to Triple-A in August for a brief spell.

Still, Piscotty posted strong numbers in his first two big league seasons, he doesn’t turn 27 until January, and the Cards are less than a year removed from locking him up on what could still be a team-friendly extension.  Under normal circumstances, St. Louis wouldn’t be looking to deal a player like Piscotty (especially when his trade value has been lowered), though the club must create room within a crowded outfield picture.  Dexter Fowler and Tommy Pham locked into everyday outfield spots next year, leaving just one corner spot for Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, and prospects Magneuris Sierra, Tyler O’Neill, and Harrison Bader.  The Cards may also add another everyday outfielder — they’ve also been linked to Ozuna and Yelich in trade speculation, and J.D. Martinez is a possibility for a Cardinals lineup looking for a big bat after missing out on Giancarlo Stanton.

This surplus makes St. Louis a logical trade partner for an Oakland team that is short on established outfielders.  Boog Powell and top prospect Dustin Fowler are the top candidates for center field, while Matt Joyce, Jake Smolinski, Chad Pinder and Mark Canha will be in the mix for playing time in the corners.  Piscotty would step into one of those corner spots for everyday duty right away, and the $30.5MM owed to him over the next five years (counting a $1MM buyout of his $15MM club option for 2023) is a palatable price tag even for a smaller-market team like the A’s.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Parè, Neshek, Phillies, Gio

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As you might expect, the Marlins aimed high in their trade talks with the Yankees about Giancarlo Stanton.  According to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link), Miami initially asked New York about such top prospects as Chance Adams, Justus Sheffield, and Estevan Florial.  Those demands weren’t met, however, and the Marlins had to settle for two lesser prospects (Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers) plus second baseman Starlin Castro in exchange for the big slugger.  It wasn’t as if the Marlins had much leverage, of course, as the Yankees were one of the few teams Stanton was willing to waive his no-trade clause to join and Miami’s top priority was getting as much of Stanton’s enormous contract as possible off their books.

Some more rumblings from around the NL East…

  • The Braves announced the hiring of Jason Parè as their assistant general manager, research and development.  (The previously-reported hiring of Josh Tamin as the club’s director of Major League operations was also announced.)  Parè spent the last two years as the Marlins’ senior director of analytics, and he previously worked with Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos in Toronto’s front office, where Parè worked as an analyst in 2014-15.
  • The Phillies have had internal talks about signing Pat Neshek, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports.  Neshek was acquired by the Phils last winter in a trade with the Astros and then pitched superbly before being flipped to the Rockies for three prospects at trade deadline.  Neshek enjoyed arguably the best of his 11 MLB seasons in 2017, posting a 1.59 ERA over 62 1/3 combined innings with Philadelphia and Colorado, recording 69 strikeouts against just six walks.
  • The Phillies are reportedly open to the possibility of starting the season with a surplus of infielders, though Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer argues that the team is best served by trading at least one of their veteran players (i.e. Cesar Hernandez or Freddy Galvis) this winter and giving J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery a clear path to regular playing time.  Juggling those four players and Maikel Franco during the year leads to fewer at-bats for everyone and, Gelb notes, less opportunity for Hernandez or Galvis to improve their value for a midseason trade.
  • Could the Nationals use Gio Gonzalez as a trade chip?  MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel discusses the possibility, as the Nats could obtain some controllable talent by dealing the veteran as he enters the final year of his contract.  Gonzalez is coming off one of the best of his six seasons in Washington (2.96 ERA, 2.38 K/BB rate, 8.42 K/9 over 201 innings), though advanced metrics were less impressed by his performance, so Kerzel believes the Nats could look for a trade while Gonzalez’s value is high.

Latest On The Mets’ Offseason Plans

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Here’s the latest from Mets GM Sandy Alderson, who spoke with reporters (including Newsday’s Marc Carig, and Mike Puma and Joel Sherman of the New York Post) about where his team stands headed into the Winter Meetings…

  • If there was a general theme to Alderson’s comments, it was that the Mets will be patient when it comes to making their moves, particularly in the relief pitching market.  The team seemed poised to make a quicker jump for a bullpen arm earlier this winter, though now New York appears to be taking a step back.  “We’re not going to chase players.  There are a lot of guys out there, and a lot of teams looking for relief pitching,” Alderson said.  “We think there’s some values out there. And to the extent that the market gets overheated, I wouldn’t think that we’ll jump into the inferno.  But we do want to improve our bullpen.”  In a follow-up tweet from Puma, Alderson “is sending out signals to” some agents that the Mets might not sign a reliever until after the Winter Meetings or possibly even into January.  The Mets are one of the teams who made a three-year offer to Bryan Shaw, though Carig suggests that Shaw would be holding out for a fourth year or perhaps is looking for an offer from a team whose Spring Training camp is in Arizona (where Shaw owns a home).
  • Dominic Smith “is still very much in the mix” for regular time at first base, Alderson said.  Smith received some criticism from Mets officials, including Alderson himself, after the season, though recent reports had the team looking for just part-time first base help, either in the form of a platoon partner like Adam Lind or an outfielder who could fill in at first like Jay Bruce.  “I wouldn’t expect us to do something that totally eliminates Dominic as a possibility,” the GM said.  “We are still very high on Dominic — some of my comments earlier in the offseason notwithstanding. I would be surprised if we did anything that precluded him from not having an opportunity in Spring Training.”
  • Asdrubal Cabrera is almost certainly going to be used at third base next season, so Alderson said the Mets will look for second base help.  A trade for a second baseman is possible, though “our farm system right now is not brimming with prospects, so in that sense, making a trade isn’t as attractive,” Alderson said.
  • The Mets were never linked to the Giancarlo Stanton trade rumors, as Alderson said he “just didn’t think, given the contract, a variety of circumstances, it made any sense for us to feign any interest for purposes of public consumption.”  While the Mets no longer have to worry about Stanton as an intra-division rival, they’ll get a regular dose of the slugger as both an interleague foe with the Yankees.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Rebuilds, Longoria, Rays, Bard, Red Sox

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The Blue Jays are planning to contend in 2018, though with the team facing a tough road back to the postseason, Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith looks at the broader question faced by the Jays and other clubs about deciding when a rebuild is necessary.  Reaching the playoffs even once is a worthy goal, though mortgaging the future to do so won’t lead to a sustainable contender, which is what teams like the Cubs and Astros appear to be after writing off several seasons to totally remake their franchises.  An even greater challenge is trying to rebuild while remaining competitive, which is what the Blue Jays seem to be trying.  “I personally don’t feel that you should ever be in a rebuild mode, especially in this market and in this environment,” Jays GM Ross Atkins said.  “There might be soft resets based on circumstance….But personally, I don’t buy into the strategy that we’re not going to be a good team for five and six years.”

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • Evan Longoria tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that the Rays have yet to speak to their longtime third baseman about their offseason plans.  The Rays will certainly be moving some expensive veterans this winter, and if they shift into full-on rebuild mode, that could very well include a trade of Longoria, their highest-paid player and franchise cornerstone.  “I think they have made it pretty clear that they want to cut salary, so I guess that leaves me somewhere in limbo,” Longoria said.  “I think I’ve been pretty up front about wanting to be in Tampa (Bay) for my whole career, but I realize that my window is getting smaller to win a championship.  If they decide to rebuild completely and give everyone up, then I suppose my family and I will adjust.”
  • In another piece from Topkin, he ranks the Rays players most likely to be traded this offseason, perhaps as soon as this week’s Winter Meetings.  Closer Alex Colome sits atop the list, followed by Jake Odorizzi and Longoria.  Chris Archer is a “2A” candidate after Odorizzi, as Archer would be Tampa’s most valuable trade chip if the club did embark on a rebuild.  Topkin writes that the Rays would demand “twice the return of Odorizzi” for Archer, and even more than the five-prospect package the team received from the Cubs in the 2011 Matt Garza trade.
  • The Yankees will hire Josh Bard as their new bench coach, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported (Twitter link).  The New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reported earlier today that Bard stood “a good chance of” being hired after an interview for the position last week.  A former ten-year big league veteran, Bard’s post-playing career includes jobs as a scout and special assistant in the Dodgers organization and, for the last two seasons, the team’s bullpen coach.  Bard and new Yankees manager Aaron Boone were briefly teammates with the 2005 Indians.
  • Now that Giancarlo Stanton is a Yankee, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald proposes a bold counter-move for the Red Sox — sign both J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer in free agency.  This would come at a big financial cost for the Sox, of course, though Silverman argues that since the team will likely be over the luxury tax threshold anyway, the Red Sox will face a slightly lesser financial penalty now than they would in exceeding it next offseason with another year of overages on its record.  Silverman believes Boston should strike now rather than hope for landing one of next winter’s big free agents, plus Martinez and Hosmer would help replace the clubhouse leadership gap left by the retired David Ortiz.

Mariners Release Seth Frankoff

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The Mariners have released righty Seth Frankoff, as per a team press release.  Frankoff was granted his release so he could pursue an opportunity with a team in South Korea.

Frankoff made his MLB debut last season, appearing in one game for the Cubs and tossing two innings.  Chicago designated Frankoff for assignment in September, only for Seattle to claim him off waivers a few days later.

Originally a 27th-round pick for the Athletics in the 2010 draft, Frankoff posted a 3.80 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.69 K/BB rate over 637 career minor league innings with the A’s, Dodgers, and Cubs.  The 29-year-old has begun working as a starter over the last two seasons after pitching exclusively out of the bullpen from 2013-15.

Red Sox Pitcher Steven Wright Arrested On Domestic Assault Charges

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Steven Wright was arrested on Friday on charges of domestic assault, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports (Twitter link).  Wright was released on Saturday.  Wright and his agent didn’t comment on the situation, though NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich received a statement from the Wright family via their attorney:

“On Friday night, Steven was arrested at our home following a verbal argument, and the police charged him with domestic assault. Although he said things he deeply regrets, he did not raise his hand at anyone during the incident, and the situation was purely emotional. We are working together as a family to make our relationships stronger, and we ask that you respect our privacy as we do so.”

The Red Sox have also released a statement in regards to Wright’s arrest…

“We are aware of the incident involving Steven. This is certainly a matter that the Red Sox take very seriously. It is my understanding that both local police and MLB are looking into this and for that reason, the club won’t have any further comment at this time.”

Wright emerged as a solid rotation piece for the Red Sox in 2016, when he posted a 3.33 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 2.23 K/BB over 156 2/3 innings and was selected to the AL All-Star team.  A shoulder injury cut Wright’s year short, however, and the knuckleballer was then limited to just five starts in 2017 due to season-ending left knee surgery in May.  Wright had been expected to return as Boston’s fifth starter next season, particularly in the wake of the news that Eduardo Rodriguez will miss time at the start of the year due to his own knee surgery.

It isn’t yet known what, if any, further legal obstacles Wright may face, though MLB’s domestic violence policy gives Commissioner Rob Manfred broad authority to issue suspensions even if no further legal action is taken.  Aroldis Chapman, Jose Reyes, Jeurys Familia and Derek Norris are some of the more notable names who have been suspended or placed on the restricted list for domestic violence-related issues since MLB and the players’ union instituted the policy in August 2015.

Angels Held Talks With C.C. Sabathia

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The Angels have spoken to free agent hurler C.C. Sabathia, George A. King III of the New York Post reports (Twitter link).  The Halos made one big rotation addition earlier this week by landing Shohei Ohtani, but Sabathia would bring more veteran stability to a pitching staff that is full of question marks after two injury-ravaged seasons.

Of course, Sabathia himself comes with significant health questions, as it wasn’t long ago that it seemed as if the southpaw’s persistent right knee problems were threatening to end his career.  Despite this lingering injury and other DL stints for hamstring and groin issues over the last two years, Sabathia enjoyed a late-career resurgence as a productive innings-eater at the back of the Yankees’ rotation.  Sabathia posted a 3.81 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.37 K/BB rate over 328 1/3 innings in 2016-17, accumulating 4.5 fWAR over that stretch.

The Yankees were also recently in touch with Sabathia, who has previously stated that he would prefer to remain in the Bronx.  That desire probably only grew stronger in the wake of the Yankees’ acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton, though with the team now boasting an outfielder surplus to go with their wealth of prospects, New York has the means to acquire a starter with more long-term potential than Sabathia if it chooses.

If Sabathia did choose to return to his home state of California, he’d join an Angels rotation that includes Ohtani, Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs and a wealth of other candidates like Andrew Heaney, J.C. Ramirez, Nick Tropeano, or Parker Bridwell.  Any of the latter group of arms could be Triple-A starting depth or moved to the bullpen to fill the Angels’ need for multi-inning relief options.

Jack Morris, Alan Trammell Voted Into Baseball Hall Of Fame

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Jack Morris and Alan Trammell were both elected to the Baseball Hall Of Fame today, as announced on the MLB Network.  The two longtime Tigers greats were voted in via the HOF’s Modern Baseball Era Committee, who weighed the cases of Morris, Trammell and eight others who weren’t originally selected in the traditional writers’ vote.  (MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom has the details on the Modern Era Committee’s composition and process.)

Both Morris and Trammell went the full 15 years on the Baseball Writers’ Association Of America ballot without getting the necessary 75% of the vote necessary for election.  Still, both players (as well as the others on the Modern Era Committee’s ballot) had their share of supporters who felt that the duo was long overdue to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

Morris won 254 games over his 18-year career, with 14 of those seasons coming in Detroit.  While advanced metrics weren’t always keen on Morris’ work, he was a prototypical old-school workhorse, tossing complete games in 175 of his 527 career starts.  His most famous outing, in fact, was a complete game on the sport’s biggest stage — Morris tossed 10 shutout innings in Game Seven of the 1991 World Series to help lead the Twins to the championship.  That was one of four World Series rings Morris earned during his career, while posting a 3.90 ERA and 2478 strikeouts over his 3824 career innings.

Trammell spent all 20 seasons of his career in Detroit, highlighted by his World Series MVP performance in the Tigers’ championship season in 1984.  Trammell hit .285/.352/.415 with 185 homers over 9376 career plate appearances, with six All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves and three Silver Slugger Awards to his credit.  Despite this impressive resume, Trammell’s overall steady play may have actually led to his being underrated in comparison to star shortstops of his era (as recently argued by MLB.com’s Joe Posnanski), hence his long wait for Cooperstown.

The Modern Era Committee focused on names from 1970-87, with other candidates including union leader Marvin Miller and former star players Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Ted Simmons, and Luis Tiant.  Simmons came closest to induction, falling just a single vote shy of the 12-vote threshold.  Miller was the next-highest candidate, earning seven of 16 votes.

Free Agent Profile: Yu Darvish

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Yu Darvish hits the open market as both the top free agent pitcher available and, in MLBTR’s view, the top free agent of the entire 2017-18 class.

Strengths/Pros

After seven years of stardom in Japan, Darvish came to North American baseball with great fanfare in the 2011-12 offseason, and he has since lived up to the hype.  In 832 1/3 Major League innings, Darvish has a 3.42 ERA, 11.04 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate, and 19 fWAR, firmly establishing himself as a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Yu DarvishTommy John surgery sidelined Darvish for all of 2015 and limited him to 100 1/3 innings in 2016, though he looked healthy in a full season of work last year plus an extended postseason run with the Dodgers.  Darvish tossed a combined 201 1/3 innings between the regular season and playoffs, the second-highest total of his MLB career.  Beyond just the workload, Darvish also set a new career best by averaging 94.2 mph on his fastball.

It’s worth noting that Darvish’s numbers with the Rangers prior to his deadline trade to L.A. were somewhat below his usual standard, thanks in part to a career-high 1.3 HR/9.  While those home run issues continued after Darvish went from Texas to Los Angeles, he took quite well to pitching in the NL, posting better strikeout and walk rates as a Dodger than he did in 137 IP with the Rangers before the deal.  His cumulative 10.08 K/9 for the season was the lowest of his career, though Darvish balanced that minor dip in punchouts with a 2.8 BB/9, continuing his trend of exhibiting better control throughout his big league career.

Since Darvish was dealt during the season, he wasn’t eligible for a qualifying offer, and thus a team doesn’t have to give up any draft picks or international bonus money in order to sign him.  This gives Darvish a slight edge over his top competition in free agency, as Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb all have QO compensation attached to their services.

Weaknesses/Cons

Beyond the obvious red flag of the Tommy John surgery, Darvish has made five other trips to the disabled list during his MLB career, ranging from minor neck and back stiffness to rather lengthier DL stints for elbow and shoulder issues.  Though Darvish just turned 31 last August, he has 2127 2/3 regular-season innings on his arm between both Japan and North America, not to mention extensive postseason work.  While he hasn’t really exhibited any signs of slowing down, it’s easy to see how a team could be worried about committing nine figures to Darvish into his mid-30’s.

The spike in home runs allowed isn’t completely out of the blue (Darvish had a 14.4% homer rate in 2013), and clearly he was far from the only pitcher who ran into trouble with the long ball during a record-setting season for homers.  Darvish’s 33.1% hard-hit ball rate was also a career-high, however, and his curveball was a below-average pitch in 2017 after previously being one of the most devastating weapons in his seven-pitch arsenal.

No discussion of Darvish is complete with mentioning his awful World Series performance, though that could just be chalked up to the Astros having his number.  Darvish was very effective in his two starts earlier in the playoffs, and given the small-sample size factor of all postseason numbers, it’s hard to imagine any team wouldn’t be eager to give Darvish the ball this October.

Personal

Darvish has been dealing with the media spotlight since he was a teenager, rising from a highly-touted high school prospect into instant stardom with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.  His move to Major League Baseball drew intense interest from several teams, with the Rangers making the high bid (under the old posting system) of $51.7MM just for the rights to talk terms with Darvish, eventually signing him to a six-year, $56MM deal.

Market

While Darvish has drawn significant interest from at least six teams, there haven’t been too many rumblings about Darvish or other top free agent hurlers given that the Shohei Ohtani chase has so dominated the offseason pitching market.  Now that Ohtani has agreed to join the Angels, you can expect a least a few of the finalists in the Ohtani sweepstakes to turn their attention to Darvish, even though the veteran pitcher comes at a vastly higher price. Interest should be robust.

The Cubs have already made one notable rotation signing in Tyler Chatwood, though adding Darvish would further bolster an already-strong rotation.  The Dodgers are also deep in pitching options, though they could explore a reunion with Darvish to guard against further rotation injuries.  A return to the Rangers doesn’t seem very likely, while San Diego, San Francisco or Seattle are also longer shots based on costs, though the Mariners seem to be taking such an aggressive approach to this offseason that they can’t be totally ruled out.

Let’s not overlook the Angels themselves as possible candidates, as there has been some light speculation that Darvish and Ohtani could aim to be on the same team; the two are friends and Darvish is one of Ohtani’s idols.  Anaheim has some payroll room even after extending Justin Upton, and with Darvish added to the promising but injury-riddled rotation, the Halos could even look to trade one of their excess starters in their attempts to add second base help.

The Twins and Cardinals have been linked to Darvish this winter, though St. Louis has already made one notable rotation addition and could be more focused on adding a big bat.  Minnesota is something of a surprise suitor for Darvish on paper, though the club has enough open payroll space in future seasons that signing Darvish is actually feasible.  (The Brewers are also a possible fit for the same reason.)  The Orioles and Phillies badly need arms but the former won’t meet Darvish’s price and the Phillies may be a year away from augmenting their rebuild with big-ticket free agents.  The Astros may prefer to earmark future money on extending their core players, though they make some sense for Darvish if they wanted to safeguard their rotation against Dallas Keuchel possibly leaving for free agency after 2018.

Expected Contract

MLBTR projected Darvish to land a six-year, $160MM contract this winter, which would work out to the fifth-highest average annual value given to any pitcher in baseball history.  It’s a big investment given Darvish’s age and the miles already on his arm, though it also looks to be market value for such an ace-level hurler that reaches free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Mike Moustakas

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The Moose is loose on the free agent market, as Mike Moustakas looks to convert his big power year into a pricey multi-year contract.

Strengths/Pros

After playing in only 27 games in 2016 due to a torn right ACL, Moustakas rebounded to earn AL Comeback Player Of The Year honors after batting .272/.314/.521 with 38 homers over 598 plate appearances.  He outhomered every full-time third baseman in baseball last season, and only seven players overall hit more than Moustakas’ 38 dingers.  Between this performance, his breakout 2015 campaign, and even his abbreviated 2016 numbers, Moustakas has been a solidly above-average hitter over his last 1325 PA, creating 18% more (hypothetical) runs than the average hitter since the start of the 2015 season.

Mike MoustakasMoustakas’ 38 homers set a new Royals single-season record, breaking the surprisingly long-lasting old mark of 36 set by Steve Balboni back in 1985.  Needless to say, Kauffman Stadium isn’t friendly to home run hitters, making Moustakas’ feat all the more impressive.  Since much of his damage came away from Kansas City last year (.284/.326/.582 with 24 homers in 310 away-game plate appearances), it could be argued that Moustakas would be even more dangerous playing his home games in a less-spacious ballpark.

Prior to 2017, Moustakas had been a solid defender at third base, with the UZR/150 metric providing more consistently positive reviews about his glovework than the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

Moustakas just turned 29 in September, making him younger than most of the other top free agent batters.  Going by the last few seasons, he’s reaching the open market right in the midst of his hitting prime, making him a safer bet for a long-term deal than older players who may have more overt question marks about possible decline.

Weaknesses/Cons

Moustakas’ 55.6% swing rate was topped by only six qualified hitters last season, and Moustakas’ free-swinging ways resulted in both a career-low 5.7% walk rate and his highest strikeout rate (15.7%) since 2013.  To be fair, that strikeout rate is actually more than respectable given how often Moustakas was swinging away, though it doesn’t seem sustainable given his only-okay career contact rates.  While Moustakas was a good hitter in both 2015 and 2017, these are also his only two full seasons of above-average production, so any weak points (like an inflated swing rate) tend to stand out as red flags.

With just a .305 career OBP and a track record as a subpar baserunner, Moustakas is reliant on his power to prop up his offensive value.  That’s not a bad skill to have in the recent era of big homer totals and a seemingly livelier baseball, though it does make Moustakas potentially susceptible to a drop in production should MLB explore a re-design of the balls.

As mentioned earlier, Moustakas had been a good defender for much of his career, though he was below-average in both DRS (minus-8) and UZR/150 (-3.6) in 2017.  This is certainly a worry for teams wondering if Moustakas might not be the same after his ACL surgery, though it also isn’t uncommon for players to simply need some time to shake off the rust in the wake of such injuries.  It’s worth noting that the Royals used Moustakas as a designated hitter in 17 games last season in an effort to keep him fresh.

Because Moustakas rejected the Royals’ qualifying offer, a new team would have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some international bonus pool money in order to sign the third baseman.  (You can find a full overview of the new QO signing rules here.)

Personal

Moustakas was born in Los Angeles and played his high school ball at local Chatsworth HS before the Royals selected him with the second overall pick of the 2007 draft.  A highly-regarded prospect throughout his minor league career, Moustakas was a key member of the homegrown core of talent that came up together though Kansas City’s farm system and helped deliver the Royals a World Series title in 2015.

After over a decade with the franchise, Moustakas has naturally created strong bonds with the organization and within the Kansas City community, and is well-regarded as a teammate and clubhouse leader.  Moustakas and wife Stephanie married in 2014 and they welcomed their first daughter in August 2016.

Market

MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently made the argument that Todd Frazier, not Moustakas, may be the best third baseman on the market this winter, though since Moustakas is over two and a half years younger, he stands out as the more logical choice for a team looking for a long-term answer at the hot corner.

Moustakas’ relative youth might also make him attractive to a team that may not be planning to contend in 2018, but wants to lock down third base in preparation for a run in 2019 and beyond.  Teams like the Phillies or Braves could fit this description if they respectively decide against going with Maikel Franco or waiting for prospect Austin Riley, though both teams seem like longshot candidates for Moustakas’ services.  You can similarly squint and see how Moustakas could fit with the Red Sox, Indians, or Mets, though the latter two teams probably won’t have the payroll room and Boston likely wants to give Rafael Devers a longer look at third base before considering him as a first baseman.

The Giants and Cardinals are both currently tied up pursuing Giancarlo Stanton, though both teams could certainly use Moustakas’ power, with San Francisco in particular having a glaring hole at third base.  A surprise team like the Orioles (if Manny Machado is moved to shortstop) or Twins (if Miguel Sano can’t handle regular third base duties after leg surgery) could also emerge.  The Angels are currently focused on second basemen and plan to use Luis Valbuena in a third base platoon, so a return to his hometown doesn’t seem likely for Moustakas — unless the Halos miss out on Shohei Ohtani and thus change their DH/first base plans.

A return to Kansas City also can’t be entirely ruled out, as the Royals have some interest in re-signing at least one of Moustakas or Eric Hosmer.  Conversely, the Royals also seem on the brink of a rebuild, so they could be better served in letting that duo (and Lorenzo Cain) leave in free agency and then collecting the draft picks due to them since Moustakas, Hosmer, and Cain all rejected qualifying offers.

Expected Contract

MLBTR ranked Moustakas sixth on our list of the offseason’s Top 50 Free Agents, with a predicted contract of five years and $85MM.  That still seems like a reasonable prediction, even if the Stanton/Ohtani chases have been holding up the market for big-ticket free agents and an increased number of front offices are willing to play the waiting game.  Moustakas is represented by Scott Boras, who is no stranger himself to keeping his clients available until an acceptably large contract can be found.  Moustakas looks to be one of the prime beneficiaries once the Stanton and Ohtani markets are resolved, particularly given this winter’s thin third base market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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