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Diamondbacks Notes: Segura/Walker Trade, Haniger, Ray

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Wednesday’s big five-player trade between the Diamondbacks and Mariners is still generating headlines in the desert.  Here’s some further analysis of the deal, plus more from Arizona…

  • While Jean Segura and Taijuan Walker are the trade’s headline players, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron observes that outfielder Mitch Haniger’s development will be a key aspect of the deal for Seattle.  Haniger could end up as “the real get in this deal for the Mariners” if his swing changes hold and he continues to flash an above-average outfield glove, particularly as a center fielder.  Haniger’s right-handed bat already makes him a valuable platoon or bench piece on a Mariners roster that has three left-handed hitters (Seth Smith, Leonys Martin, Ben Gamel) slated for starting outfield roles.  Overall, Cameron likes the deal for Arizona, as Haniger and prospect Zac Curtis were mostly expendable parts for the D’Backs and Walker has considerable breakout potential.
  • “It’s a trade that could turn into a win-win for both organizations or it could easily blow up for either team,” ESPN’s David Schoenfield writes in his analysis of the five players in the deal, as “all five players are difficult to project moving forward.”  Schoenfield expects the Mariners to trade for more pitching, which might require a large payroll increase from 2016, though Schoenfield figures Seattle is a clearly all-in on competing next season.
  • Southpaw Robbie Ray posted a 4.90 ERA, 11.3 K/9 and 3.07 K/BB rate over 174 1/3 innings for the D’Backs last season, and as ESPN.com’s Sam Miller notes, Ray’s year also served as an interesting test case for the different ways player value is measured.  Depending on who you ask, last season Ray was either barely above replacement level (0.7 bWAR from Baseball Reference), one of the game’s better starters (3.0 fWAR from Fangraphs) or a top-15 starter in the game (4.82 WARP from Baseball Prospectus).

Free Agent Profile: Edwin Encarnacion

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Edwin Encarnacion delivered another big season in 2016 and even added a signature postseason moment (his walkoff homer in the Blue Jays’ wild card win over the Orioles) to his resume.  After five straight years of excellent numbers, he is well-positioned to land one of the offseason’s biggest contracts.

Strengths/Pros

Encarnacion’s signature elbow extension during his home run trot has become known around Canada as “taking the parrot for a walk,” and Polly has gotten more than her share of exercise over the last five years.  Since breaking out during the 2012 season, Encarnacion has been nothing less than one of the best hitters in baseball, batting .272/.367/.544 with 193 homers (the second-highest total in baseball in that span), 550 RBI (also second), a 146 wRC+ (seventh) and 451 runs scored (tied for eighth).  He has generated 20.2 fWAR in that stretch based almost entirely on his potent right-handed bat.  As one might expect, Encarnacion draws a large number of walks (12.5 percent since 2012).  Unlike many sluggers, though, Encarnacion isn’t especially strikeout prone, as he’s punched out in just 15.1 percent of his plate appearances dating back to that 2012 breakout.

Encarnacion’s emergence as the plate more or less coincided with his being moved off third base and into a first base/DH role, as he was able to more completely focus on hitting and no longer had to worry about his infamous glovework. (When your actual nickname is “E5,” a position change is long overdue.)  While Encarnacion posted subpar defensive metrics in his first few years at first, he has actually been a passable first baseman over the last two seasons as per the UZR/150 metric (+4.1).  Paul Kinzer, Encarnacion’s agent, believes his client has proven himself as “a solid first baseman,” and a viable option for National League teams.Edwin Encarnacion

Yoenis Cespedes is three years younger than Encarnacion and has more defensive value as a left fielder, which is why he topped MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents of the 2016-17 offseason.  Encarnacion, however, finished second on that list, a rarity for a player of his age.

Weaknesses/Cons

As Encarnacion enters his age-34 season, the most obvious question is simple: how long can he keep up his elite production?  Traditionally quite good at putting the bat on the ball, Encarnacion’s contact rate has dropped rather sharply over the last two years while his swinging strike rate has risen.  He posted the second-highest strikeout rate (19.7%) of his career last season, finishing well above his 16.2% career average.  Encarnacion’s 134 wRC+ was also his lowest in five years, though obviously that’s still an excellent number and only a borderline sign of “decline.”

A sneaky-good stolen base threat early in his career, Encarnacion has been a below-average baserunner in each of the last two seasons.  Without much speed and fringy defensive worth, Encarnacion’s value is almost entirely tied up in his bat.  Teams need to decide if they’re willing to risk giving a $20MM+ average annual value to a player who may not be worth that money even in 2017 if he takes even a small step back at the plate.

His recent UZR/150 performance aside, it’s rather hard to imagine Encarnacion suddenly becoming a reliable defender at this point in his career, especially if he doesn’t have the security of the DH spot for regular rest.  Many bat-first players gradually shift from being regular defenders to taking more and more time in the DH slot as they move into their mid-30s, so it would be rather unusual to see Encarnacion take the opposite route by signing with an NL team.

Encarnacion has undergone two wrist surgeries during his career, missed about five weeks with a quad strain in 2014 and has battled some shoulder and finger ailments.  He did play in a career-high 160 games last season, though again, that was with the help of the DH spot to give him plenty of recovery time.  An NL team would be taking a risk in counting on Encarnacion to stay both healthy and productive playing every day as a first baseman.

Personal

Encarnacion and his partner Jennifer have one child, who bears his father’s name. A native of the Dominican Republic, Encarnacion ended up attending high school in Puerto Rico, making him eligible for the draft. He was taken in the ninth round by the Rangers in 2000, ended up being dealt to the Reds in 2001, and broke into the bigs with Cincinnati in 2005.

Though he showed glimpses of his eventual power potential as a Red, Encarnacion’s lack of prowess at third base made him a liability (a move to first base wasn’t an option in Cincy thanks to Sean Casey and then Joey Votto).  The Reds dealt Encarnacion to the Blue Jays as part of a three-player package for Scott Rolen at the 2009 trade deadline, though Encarnacion was included not because Toronto wanted him, but to offset Rolen’s salary. He wasn’t an immediate hit in Toronto, either.  In fact, the Jays actually let Encarnacion go to the A’s on a waiver claim after the 2010 season, though Oakland non-tendered him a month later and the Jays re-signed the slugger.

Midway through his breakout 2012 season, Encarnacion signed a $27MM extension covering the 2013-15 seasons, plus a $10MM club option for 2016.  That extension ended up being a marvelous bargain for the Jays, though given how unsettled Encarnacion’s career had been to that point, it’s hard to fault him for wanting to lock in a healthy guaranteed deal.

Last August, a lawsuit was brought against Encarnacion, alleging that he knowingly infected a woman with two sexually-transmitted diseases.  Kinzer described the lawsuit as “completely inappropriate and meritless,” and Encarnacion’s attorneys sought to have the motion thrown out of court in October.  As Blue Jays Nation’s John Lott noted, the incident could technically fall under the purview of MLB’s domestic violence policy, though it isn’t known whether or not the league is investigating the situation.  Such lawsuits have been known to take years to be resolved or settled, so it’s hard to gauge whether or not the civil suit will have an impact on Encarnacion’s free agency.

Market

Encarnacion unsurprisingly rejected the Blue Jays’ qualifying offer, so any club that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick as compensation.  That’s a small price to pay for a suitor, as players at the top of the market rarely have to worry about the QO’s effect on their asking price.  While there are several notable first basemen and designated hitters on the open market this winter (Mark Trumbo, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss and perhaps even long-time teammate Jose Bautista if right field is no longer in Bautista’s future), Encarnacion is a clear cut above the pack in terms of recent production.

The Blue Jays reportedly made Encarnacion a four-year offer in the neighborhood of $80MM prior to their signing of Kendrys Morales, and even with Morales now in the fold for regular DH/first base duty, the Jays are still reportedly exploring the possibility of bringing Encarnacion back.  The two sides discussed an extension during Spring Training, though since the Jays were reportedly only willing to give Encarnacion two guaranteed years (and multiple club options), talks didn’t get very far.

The Red Sox have long been linked to Encarnacion, who fits as either a straight replacement for David Ortiz at DH or rotating between both DH and first base with Hanley Ramirez so both sluggers can stay fresh.  Boston, however, has yet to begin its rumored pursuit of Encarnacion, whether due to uncertainty about the luxury tax limit in the new collective bargaining agreement or perhaps simply out of a preference to not lock up the DH spot to an aging player on a long-term deal.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Encarnacion would wind up in a Red Sox uniform, and it’s hard to rule Boston out entirely until either the team makes an alternate move or Encarnacion puts pen to paper elsewhere.

The Yankees, Astros, Rangers (all with holes to fill at first and/or DH) have all reportedly made contact with Encarnacion.  Looking at speculative fits, the Orioles or White Sox could also offer first base/DH time-shares, teaming Encarnacion up with Chris Davis and Jose Abreu, respectively.  Chicago is probably a long shot, however, since the Sox could be a seller rather than a buyer this winter.

Looking to the National League, the Rockies and Marlins have needs at first but may not be able to meet Encarnacion’s asking price.  There actually aren’t that many NL clubs that can both afford Encarnacion and have a need at first base, so the lack of a clear fit may be a bigger issue for Encarnacion in the Senior Circuit than the lack of the DH spot.  A mystery NL team could emerge as a suitor due to a trade, injury or position switch, though for now, I’d expect Encarnacion to remain in the American League.

Expected Contract

Mid-30’s sluggers such as Victor Martinez and Nelson Cruz have managed to land pricey four-year deals in free agency, and Encarnacion should be no different, though his track record will score him significantly more guaranteed money than Cruz or V-Mart.  A five-year deal isn’t out of the question, though with the majority of Encarnacion’s interest likely to be limited to just American League teams, it’s probably safer to just project a four-year deal that will take Encarnacion through his age-37 season.  MLBTR projects Encarnacion to sign a four-year, $92MM deal.

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Jose Bautista

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Jose Bautista’s offseason suitors will have to weigh his disappointing 2016 season against his track record as one of baseball’s top sluggers.

Strengths/Pros

While Bautista had a down year last season, it was far from being an actually “bad” year.  Indeed, most players would be very satisfied hitting .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers and 24 doubles over 517 plate appearances.  Bautista’s 122 wRC+ indicates that he still generated 22% more runs than a league average batter, and of all free agent hitters with at least 400 PA last year, only seven topped Bautista’s mark of 122.

With a career .266 BABIP, Bautista has never received too much luck from the batted-ball gods, though it could be argued that his .255 BABIP in 2016 was particularly lacking in fortune.  Bautista had a career-high line drive rate of 18.8%, and he made hard contact on a whopping 41% of his balls in play, both of which were career-highs.  Bautista’s vaunted batting eye made him productive even when he didn’t make contact, with a 16.8% walk rate that ranked third in all of baseball (behind only Bryce Harper and Mike Trout) and an 0.84% walk-to-strikeout rate that tied him for 12th among all hitters.Jose Bautista (vertical)

Bautista was bothered by a sore hip flexor in May and then had two separate DL stints (with turf toe and a left knee sprain, respectively) that limited him to 116 games.  It could simply be that the nagging injuries and the somewhat stop-and-start nature of his season prevented Bautista from ever really getting into a groove.  Bautista is known to keep himself in good physical condition, and he played in 308 of 324 games in 2014-15.

And of course, even with his 2016 season in mind, Bautista is still easily one of the decade’s best hitters.  Since the start of the 2010 campaign, Bautista leads all hitters in home runs (249) and isolated power (.278), while ranking second in walk rate (16%), fourth in wRC+ (152) and eighth in fWAR (33.8).  If 2016 was just an aberration, then Bautista’s next team could be signing him at a relative bargain.

Weaknesses/Cons

When a player is in his mid-30s, any signs of decline have to be taken as a red flag.  For every stat indicating that Bautista was more or less his old self last year, there was another that showed significant dropoff.  He posted his lowest batting average, slugging percentage, wRC+, wOBA (weighted on-base average) and isolated power numbers since his pre-breakout 2009 season, while also posting his highest strikeout rate since 2009.  Between 2010-15, Bautista made contact 70.5% of the time when swinging at pitches outside the strike zone; that number plunged to just 60.4% in 2016.

Beyond just his issues at the plate, Bautista was only worth 1.4 fWAR (his lowest as a Blue Jay) last year in large part due to below-average baserunning and fielding metrics.  Bautista posted his second straight year of rough numbers in right field, and now has -11 Defensive Runs Scored and -11.2 UZR/150 over the last two seasons.

Jay Alou, Bautista’s agent, has said that his client is open to a move to left field or the infield, which should help Bautista’s market.  National League teams without the luxury of a DH spot, however, may be wary about signing a player entering his age-36 season without any guarantee that he can provide passable defense.  Bautista has only played 154 MLB innings as a first baseman and 410 innings as a left fielder; a return to third base would seem very unlikely at this stage of his career.

Beyond this season’s two DL trips, Bautista was also limited to 92 games in 2012 due to a bad wrist that required post-season surgery, and 118 games in 2013 due to a bruised hip that prematurely ended his season.  (In fairness to Bautista, both shutdowns were more than a little due to Toronto being miles out of the pennant race.)  He also battled a bad shoulder in 2015 that required him to receive more DH at-bats than usual, though that injury didn’t appear to impact his offensive production whatsoever.

Personal

Originally a 20th-round pick for the Pirates in the 2000 draft, Bautista’s rise from journeyman to superstar is one of baseball’s more unlikely breakout stories.  He played for five different organizations in the 2004 season (his rookie year) before settling back in Pittsburgh and posting middling numbers in semi-regular duty as a third baseman and outfielder.  Dealt to the Blue Jays in August 2008 for catcher Robinzon Diaz, Bautista still didn’t entirely break out until a swing overhaul under the tutelage of Toronto manager Cito Gaston and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy.  The results were incredible — after managing just 59 career homers over his first 2038 PA in the bigs, Bautista exploded for 54 homers in 2010 and the rest is history.

Bautista’s outspoken personality made him a clubhouse leader in Toronto but also ruffled some feathers around the league, whether it’s questioning the strike zones of several umpires, getting involved in the most memorable on-field brawl in recent memory or his iconic bat flip home run in Game Five of the 2015 ALDS.  There hasn’t been any indication that Bautista’s attitude is necessarily impacting his free agent stock; if anything, Bautista has a reputation as an intense competitor.

Market

Needless to say, Bautista won’t be getting anything close to the massive asking price (five or six years for $150-$180MM) he reportedly floated during preseason extension talks with the Jays.  In fact, given his disappointing year, Bautista could’ve been justified in accepting the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer in the hopes of rebounding in 2017 and testing the market again next winter in search of a bigger contract.

Instead, he rejected the Blue Jays’ offer, so any club that signs him will have to give up its top unprotected draft pick for Bautista’s services.  As we’ve seen in the past, the qualifying offer can limit the market for anything less than superstar free agents.  Between the draft pick compensation, Bautista’s age, his declining defense and hitting numbers and the number of other first base/DH types on the market, Bautista could have a tough time finding what he believes is fair value.

On the other hand, it’s hard to ignore Bautista’s performance prior to 2016.  There will certainly be teams interested in seeing if Bautista can bounce back to his old form, and Bautista’s apparent willingness to shift out of right field will increase his list of suitors.

Teams like the Orioles, Red Sox, Astros or Mariners have multiple holes at DH, first base or the corner outfield slots that Bautista could fill, switching positions on a near-daily basis to accommodate other players on the roster.  The Dodgers, and Giants have corner outfield slots that Bautista could fill, and conceivably the A’s and Phillies could be added to the list if Bautista’s price drops or if he isn’t set on joining a contender.  The Rockies could sign Bautista as a first baseman with an eye towards giving him some time in the outfield if Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon are traded.  The Nationals somewhat surprisingly asked about Bautista at last summer’s trade deadline so they could be a suitor now; with Ryan Zimmerman still holding down first base in Washington, Bautista would have to play right, with Harper sliding to center.  I don’t know if the bad blood between Bautista and the Rangers would preclude the two sides from doing business, though Bautista is at least an on-paper fit in Texas as a first baseman or designated hitter.

The Yankees and Mets have both already been linked to Bautista, though the Mets would need to deal one of Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson or (less likely) Michael Conforto to make room.  For the Yankees, Bautista would add veteran stability to their young first base/right field/DH mix of Greg Bird, Tyler Austin, Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks, and left field could also open up if anything comes of trade inquiries about Brett Gardner.

While Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins recently said that the club’s signing of Kendrys Morales didn’t mean that Toronto couldn’t still bring back Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion, talks between Bautista and the Jays are reportedly not showing any signs of re-opening.  Bautista could still technically fit playing right, first base and DH in rotation with Morales and Justin Smoak, though at this point, it seems like the Bautista era is Toronto is coming to a close.

Expected Contract

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Bautista 12th on his list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting Bautista for a three-year, $51MM contract but with the potential for an opt-out clause after the first year or perhaps just a one-year deal altogether.

I would tend to think that a multi-year deal with an opt-out is the best scenario for all parties.  Bautista already feels that he vastly outperformed his previous contract — he could see another modest multi-year deal as a missed opportunity at prime earning years in 2018 or 2019, as obviously he believes he’ll return to form next season.  With an opt-out, Bautista can test the market again next winter if he has that rebound year, and the signing team might be satisfied to have gotten one big year from a 36-year-old and then let off the hook for his age-37 season and beyond.

This is a tough one to predict given Bautista’s lackluster platform year, though I believe Tim’s projection of a $17MM average annual value will end up being accurate.  Whether Bautista gets a third year could depend on how the rest of the first base/DH market shakes out.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Astros Outright Jon Singleton

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TUESDAY: Singleton has cleared waivers and been assigned to Triple-A, Kaplan tweets.

SATURDAY: The Astros placed first baseman Jon Singleton on outright waivers yesterday, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports (Twitter links).  Kaplan expects Singleton to clear waivers when eligible on Tuesday, and Singleton will then be outrighted to Triple-A, and off the Astros’ 40-man roster.

Once considered one of the top minor leaguers in the sport, Singleton was the centerpiece of the prospect package sent by the Phillies to the Astros in July 2011 for Hunter Pence.  Houston even signed Singleton to a five-year, $10MM extension prior to his major league debut in 2014, a deal that drew quite a bit of controversy given how it was perceived by some (including the MLBPA) as Singleton signing away quite a bit of future earning potential.

As it turned out, Singleton may have done well to lock down a big payday given his struggles over the last few years.  He hit just .171/.290/.331 over 420 plate appearances in 2014-15 and he didn’t play in the bigs at all in 2016, instead spending the year at Triple-A Fresno and hitting .202/.337/.390 over 501 PA.  That batting line is particularly concerning given that Singleton was playing in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

With A.J. Reed, Tyler White, Yulieski Gurriel and Brian McCann all looking like first base options on Houston’s major league roster, one has to wonder if Singleton’s time in the organization is coming to an end.  As Kaplan noted, Singleton isn’t likely to be claimed by another team since the Astros still owe him $2MM in each of the next two years (plus a $500K buyout of his $2.5MM option for 2019).

Cardinals Sign Brett Cecil

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NOV. 21: The Cardinals have formally announced Cecil’s four-year deal and introduced him at a press conference.

NOV. 19: The Cardinals have agreed to a four-year deal with southpaw reliever Brett Cecil, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  The deal will pay Cecil $30.5MM over the four seasons and includes full no-trade protection, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links).  The contract will be official when Cecil, an ACES client, passes a physical.

[Related: Updated St. Louis Cardinals depth chart]

St. Louis was known to be interested in bullpen help this winter, and adding another left-hander was the more logical fit, as Kevin Siegrist was the only other healthy southpaw in the Cards’ bullpen.  Tyler Lyons will miss at least the start of the 2017 season due to knee surgery, while Zach Duke will miss next season entirely after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

In Cecil, the Cardinals have landed one of the top setup men on the market this winter.  In four years as a full-time reliever, Cecil posted a 2.90 ERA, 11.5 K/9 and 3.68 K/BB rate with the Blue Jays, with grounder rates of over 50% in three of those four years.  Over his career, Cecil has dominated left-handed hitters, limiting them to just a .226/.281/.344 slash line.

Brett Cecil

Despite this solid track record, the thought of Cecil landing a four-year deal seemed pretty remote in mid-July.  The lefty missed six weeks due to a tear in his lat muscle, and he had a whopping 6.75 ERA over his first 16 innings of action.  Down the stretch, however, Cecil looked far closer to his old self, posting a 1.74 ERA over his final 20 2/3 innings of the year.

Cecil’s 3.93 ERA was his highest in four seasons, though a .344 BABIP and an inflated 20% home run rate can be partially blamed for that spike.  Advanced metrics peripherals (3.64 FIP, 2.87 xFIP, 2.71 SIERA) take a more positive view of Cecil’s season, and he also posted a 11.05 K/9 and 1.96 BB/9.  His grounder rate did drop to just 42%, however, and hitters were making very good contact — 37.3% of Cecil’s contact allowed was comprised of hard-hit balls, easily the highest total of his career.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Cecil 26th on his list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him to land a three-year, $18MM contract.  The fact that Cecil ended up with a fourth year and $30.5MM in guaranteed money is both a nice win for his representatives at ACES and a sign of just how far the Cards had to go to win the bidding.  The Mariners and Blue Jays were both known to be interested in Cecil’s services, with Toronto reportedly putting a three-year deal on the table to retain their longtime reliever.  Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that the Jays were one of multiple teams willing to give Cecil a three-year commitment.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

Quick Hits: Twins, Hughes, D’Arnaud, Aoki, Mariners

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Some items from around baseball as we head into a new week…

  • Brian Dozier is drawing interest from other teams but the Twins aren’t looking to tie Phil Hughes’ contract to Dozier in trade talks, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets.  Hughes still has three years and $39.6MM remaining on the extension he signed with the Twins prior to the 2015 season, and since inking that new deal, Hughes has struggled badly and battled injury problems.  The veteran righty underwent surgery to help alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome last summer, and Hughes believes he can regain his old form now that he’s healthy.
  • While Hughes may not be getting shopped, Berardino also notes (Twitter link) that the Twins aren’t looking to add payroll, even after freeing up some money by parting ways with Trevor Plouffe, Kurt Suzuki and Tommy Milone.  As one rival official puts it, “everyone knows they’re rebuilding.”
  • The Mets don’t seem to be looking for a big change at catcher, as Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports that the team told representatives of a free agent catcher that Travis d’Arnaud will be given every opportunity to succeed next season.  Since the Mets offered d’Arnaud as part of trade talks for Jonathan Lucroy over the summer, it’s notable that the team is reaffirming its commitment to the talented but oft-injured catcher, though it could be that New York was more enamored with Lucroy than it is with the options on free agent catching market.  Ackert does note that the Mets could look for a more reliable backup, given d’Arnaud’s injury history and the shared offensive struggles of Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera.
  • Though Nori Aoki has only been an Astro for less than three weeks, the veteran outfielder may now be a non-tender candidate, the Houston Chronicle’s Jake Kaplan writes.  If the Astros plan to use the newly-signed Josh Reddick in left field, Aoki will be a very highly-paid fourth outfielder (thanks to a projected $6.8MM arbitration salary) and possibly an expendable part.  If the Astros use Reddick in right and move George Springer to center field, Aoki will again have more of a clear role, platooning with Jake Marisnick in left.  Houston has also been linked to some first baseman in rumors, which could push Yulieski Gurriel to left field and again leave Aoki without regular playing time.
  • For the second straight offseason, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is acting quickly on lower-profile moves to elevate his team’s talent floor, ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield writes.  Additions like Danny Valencia, Richie Shaffer and Carlos Ruiz fill holes and add more valuable depth around the Mariners’ core players, the type of top-to-bottom roster management that former Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik was unable to achieve in his time with the club.
  • While several big-name relievers are dominating headlines this winter, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello cites Daniel Hudson, Juan Nicasio and Koji Uehara as relatively inexpensive arms who could provide major dividends in a bullpen next season, perhaps even as closers.

NL West Notes: Chatwood, Utley, Dozier, Lopez, Romo, Casilla

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Though Tyler Chatwood is entering his last year under contract, there hasn’t been any sign that the Rockies are considering trading the righty, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes as part of a reader mailbag.  Chatwood missed all of 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery and posted solid numbers in his comeback year, managing a 3.87 ERA, 6.66 K/9 and a 57.2% grounder rate over 158 innings.  It’s unclear whether the Rockies can extend Chatwood given his issues pitching at Coors Field, and he’d make a very interesting trade chip in this offseason’s thin free agent pitching market.  That said, given how Colorado has traditionally struggled to find any viable rotation help, the team might prefer to hang onto Chatwood for as long as possible.  Saunders’ entire mailbag piece is well worth a read, as he also addresses such topics as the Rockies’ first base search and new manager Bud Black.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • The Dodgers are telling teams they are “very open” to re-signing Chase Utley even as L.A. is still exploring other trades for second base help, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports (Twitter links).  At this point, it would seem that Utley could be a backup plan for the Dodgers if they couldn’t land a bigger name like Logan Forsythe, Ian Kinsler or Brian Dozier.
  • Speaking of Dozier, Berardino also tweets that there isn’t much cooking between the Dodgers and Twins in trade discussions.  “I wouldn’t hold your breath,” one team official tells Berardino about the chances of a deal.
  • The Giants haven’t had serious talks with relievers Javier Lopez, Sergio Romo or Santiago Casilla, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic reports.  Casilla is the least likely to return, as he and the team ended the season on bad terms.  Romo could potentially be an option for San Francisco in January or February if he fails to catch on with another club beforehand.
  • As for Lopez, Pavlovic writes that the veteran southpaw is “said to have a very short list of teams that could keep him out of retirement.”  Lopez has previously hinted at continuing his career, though it appears it could be only under particular circumstances, such as staying with the Giants.  Pavlovic isn’t sure that will happen, as the Giants already have Will Smith, Josh Osich and Steven Okert on hand as left-handed bullpen options.

Mariners Asked Pirates About Andrew McCutchen

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The Mariners asked the Pirates about center fielder Andrew McCutchen earlier this offseason, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link), though talks between the two sides “did not advance.”  Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said after the GM Meetings that he had been receiving calls from multiple teams about McCutchen’s services, and given Seattle’s rather unsettled outfield situation, it isn’t surprising that the Mariners checked in on the former NL MVP.  A couple of weeks ago, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Nationals discussed a McCutchen deal with Pittsburgh over the summer.

On most days, the Mariners will use three left-handed hitters (Seth Smith, Leonys Martin and Ben Gamel) as their starting outfield, with right-handed bats Danny Valencia, Guillermo Heredia or regular DH Nelson Cruz spelling Smith against left-handed pitching.  Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has said that the club intends for Gamel to play every day, though given Gamel’s lack of experience, one would think the M’s would also want some right-handed protection for Gamel against tough southpaws.  Then again, with Valencia also likely to see time at first base spelling Dan Vogelbach against lefty pitching, there may not be enough right-handed outfield bats to go around.

Adding another right-handed hitter (like McCutchen) would go a lot way towards stabilizing the many moving parts of this platoon situation.  McCutchen would have immediately become the everyday option in left or right field, as given how the former Gold Glover’s defense has heavily declined over the last three years, it would’ve made little sense for him to displace Martin in center.

The big question facing the M’s or any other team interested in McCutchen, of course, is whether his rough 2016 season was the start of a decline or just an aberration.  McCutchen hit just .256/.336/.430 over 675 PA for the Bucs last season, easily the worst numbers of his eight-year career.  Between his poor hitting, fielding and even a below-average baserunning totals, McCutchen posted just 0.7 fWAR last year, a stunning dropoff for a player who amassed 33.3 fWAR over the previous five seasons.

McCutchen is owed $14MM in 2017 and the Pirates have a $14.5MM club option on the outfielder for 2018 (with a $1MM buyout).  McCutchen’s contract has long been seen as one of baseball’s great bargains, though if the Pirates no longer know what kind of production their longtime star will deliver from now on, the deal may now be considered too risky for a small-market team like Pittsburgh.  With top prospect Austin Meadows waiting in the wings, one has to wonder if we’ve seen the last of McCutchen in Bucs black-and-gold, as teams with more financial breathing room can afford to see if McCutchen can return to form.

Diamondbacks Designate Kyle Jensen For Assignment

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The Diamondbacks designated first baseman/outfielder Kyle Jensen for assignment, the team announced.  The move was made on Friday as part of Arizona’s 40-man roster maneuvering in advance of the Rule 5 draft deadline.

Jensen, 28, made his big league debut last season, appearing in 17 games and posting a .716 OPS over 34 plate appearance for the D’Backs.  A 12th-round pick for the Marlins in 2009, Jensen signed a minor league deal with Arizona last winter.  Over 3877 minor league plate appearances in the Marlins, Dodgers and D’Backs farm systems, Jensen has hit .266/.341/.488 with 178 homers.

Friday’s roster shuffling left quite a few players in ’DFA limbo,’ so be sure to check out the MLB Trade Rumors DFA Tracker to keep track of all the designation situations from around the game.

Astros Interested In Mike Napoli

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Veteran slugger Mike Napoli is one of the free agent hitters drawing interest from the Astros, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  While a left-handed bat would be a better fit within a Houston lineup is heavy with right-handed hitters (even after the acquisitions of Josh Reddick and Brian McCann), Napoli would bring some extra veteran leadership to a young team as well as a significant amount of pop.

First base is an area of uncertainty for the Astros for 2017.  Top prospect A.J. Reed is still likely seen as the long-term answer at the position, though Reed didn’t show much in his first taste of the big leagues and perhaps isn’t ready to be a regular for a contending team.  Yulieski Gurriel is penciled in as Houston’s top first base option, with Reed, Tyler White, Marwin Gonzalez and McCann in the mix for backup duty.

It’s also still possible that Gurriel ends up as the regular left fielder if the Astros go with George Springer in center and Reddick in right, so adding a player like Napoli would go a long way towards stabilizing the first base situation.  Whereas a big-ticket free agent first baseman like Edwin Encarnacion would require a commitment of four or five years, Napoli probably won’t require anything more than a two-year deal, so Reed wouldn’t be blocked for too long.

GM Jeff Luhnow’s statement earlier this month that the Astros were going to look to the free agent market for upgrades has already proven to be true with the signings of Reddick and Charlie Morton, though Houston also swung a big trade to land McCann from the Yankees.

Seattle and Cleveland have both been linked to Napoli this winter, and he has been speculatively connected to several other teams with vacancies at first base or DH.  The 35-year-old put himself in line for a nice contract in the wake of his 34-homer, .239/.335/.465 season with the American League champion Indians last season.

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