Krall: Reds Likely Done With “Major Moves” For The Offseason
The Reds have had a fairly busy offseason to this point, headlined by the surprise addition of switch-hitting infielder Jeimer Candelario on a three-year, $45MM deal. Beyond that, the club has addressed its pitching staff by picking up Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez as potential rotation options while shoring up the bullpen with Emilio Pagan. GM Nick Krall suggested to reporters, including C. Trent Rosencrans of The Athletic, today that the club is unlikely to make any more “major moves” this winter, though it’s possible they’ll look to bolster their bench or bullpen depth before Spring Training begins.
It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Reds don’t expect to make any other significant additions in free agency, as the club has made more than $100MM in salary commitments this offseason after much smaller offseasons in recent years. On the other hand, RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $101MM next season even after all of that spending. That still leaves a healthy amount of room relative to the club’s all-time high of $126MM back in 2019 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts), though it does represent a significant step up from the club’s $87MM payroll in 2023 and roughly in he same ballpark as 2022’s $107MM figure.
Somewhat more surprising than the idea the Reds may not look to sign additional free agents of significance is the fact that Krall seemed to indicate the club doesn’t expect to swing a significant trade throughout the remainder of the offseason. The club’s infield depth is the envy of the rest of the league, and Cincinnati appears to have more position players ready for an everyday role in the majors than they can afford such an opportunity to. That’s caused Reds infielders such as Jonathan India to generate plenty of buzz on the offseason rumor mill, with India even landing at #11 on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates.
Of course, an unexpected opportunity cropping up on the trade market or even via free agency is always possible, but it seems as though the club will now shift its focus to fine-tuning the roster with minor moves. Giving the aforementioned deep positional group the club has at its disposal, the bullpen seems like a more likely place for additions at the margins than the bench, though it’s at least conceivable the club could look to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to its bench mix to help balance the trio of Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, and Will Benson alongside Spencer Steer and Stuart Fairchild.
As for the bullpen, Alexis Diaz looked like a capable late-inning arm last season and a supporting cast of Pagan, Lucas Sims, and Sam Moll should help the Reds field a competitive relief corps next season. With that being said, the club’s bullpen ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of ERA (16th), FIP (23rd), and xFIP (29th). While the addition of Pagan and a healthier starting rotation could take some of the load off a relief corps that threw 652 1/3 innings last year, it’s easy to see where the group could benefit from further reinforcements. The Reds seem unlikely to play at the top of the relief market with players like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, and Robert Stephenson, though lower-level arms with late-inning experience such as Brad Hand or Adam Ottavino could make sense to add a veteran arm to the late-inning mix.
Cubs To Sign Colten Brewer
The Cubs are apparently in agreement with Colten Brewer on a contract for 2024, per a post from Brewer’s own Instagram page. It’s not yet clear if the arrangement is a major or minor league pact.
Brewer, 31, was a fourth-round pick by the Pirates in the 2011 draft. After several years in the Pirates and Yankees farm systems, Brewer made his big league debut with the Padres in 2018 though the right-hander struggled to a 5.59 ERA across 11 appearance that first season. From there the right-hander joined the Red Sox, the club with whom he spent most of his time in the majors. In parts of three seasons with Boston, Brewer posted a 4.98 ERA and 5.20 FIP across 81 1/3 innings of work. While he struck out a respectable 20.3% of batters faced during that time while generating a solid 50.4% groundball rate, Brewer walked a whopping 13.3% of batters faced during his time with the Red Sox.
Those control issues led the club to designate Brewer for assignment back in June 2021. He was eventually outrighted to Triple-A and spent the remainder of the season in the minor leagues before signing a minor league deal with the Royals the following offseason but was confined to the minor leagues for the entire 2022 season. During his 18-month stint at the Triple-A level, Brewer put up a relatively pedestrian 4.53 ERA over 57 2/3 innings of work as his walk rate remained over 10%.
That didn’t stop Brewer from landing with the Rays on a minor league deal during the 2022-23 offseason, though he ultimately wouldn’t make it to Opening Day as a member of the organization. The Rays instead got together with the Yankees on a minor trade before the start of the season that shipped Brewer to the Bronx, where he joined the club’s 40-man roster. He put up decent enough results in 8 1/3 innings of work for the big league club with a 4.32 ERA, but was nonetheless designated for assignment in mid-April.
Brewer accepted an outright assignment with the Yankees and pitched exceptionally well in 20 innings with the club’s Triple-A affiliate, posting a 1.35 ERA with a whopping 29.9% strikeout rate. That brief flash of dominance earned Brewer attention from Nippon Professional Baseball’s Hanshin Tigers, and he signed with the club for the remainder of the 2023 season. Though he managed just 12 1/3 innings down the stretch in Japan, the strong numbers continued. Brewer allowed an ERA of just 2.19 across 14 appearances overseas, striking out 30.2% of batters faced while walking 11.3%.
Brewer’s stretch of dominance in the upper minors and abroad last season has seemingly caught the attention of the Cubs. Chicago is among a handful of clubs known to be looking for relief help this winter along with the Cardinals, Rangers, and Astros. Brewer could conceivably bolster the depth of a club that saw the likes of Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger depart for free agency. With that being said, the addition of Brewer seems unlikely to take the Cubs out of the relief market given their reported interest in some higher-level arms like former Rays righty Robert Stephenson and veteran closer Liam Hendriks. For now, Brewer figures to enter Spring Training with a shot at a role in the club’s bullpen competing alongside the likes of Daniel Palencia and Jose Cuas.
Looking For A Match In A Jorge Polanco Trade
The Twins saw a variety of youngsters take significant steps forward in 2023 en route to their first victory in a postseason series since 2002, and perhaps none of those were more impactful than the breakouts of Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien. Long a top prospect whose career had been stalled by injuries, Lewis burst onto the scene in 2023 and slashed an incredible .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers and six stolen bases in just 239 trips to the plate last season while playing excellent defense at third base. Julien, by contrast, lacked Lewis’s prospect pedigree but put together perhaps an even more impressive rookie campaign. The 24-year-old slashed .263/.381/.459 in 408 trips to the plate as the club’s primary second baseman in 2023, with an incredible 15.7% walk rate that only Aaron Judge, Cavan Biggio, Joc Pederson, and Juan Soto managed to eclipse among rookie hitters (min. 400 PA) in the 21st century.
The incredible performances from both Lewis and Julien leave the Twins set up for success around in the infield for years to come, particularly if Carlos Correa manages to regain his All Star form and top prospect Brooks Lee is able to find similar success when he reaches the big leagues, which could happen as soon as 2024. This excess of infield talent has left longtime second baseman Jorge Polanco to face a great deal of uncertainty this offseason. The Twins haven’t been shy about their plans to cut payroll this offseason, and with each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle having signed elsewhere this offseason after departing for free agency last month, the club is facing uncertanity in the rotation.
As such, dealing away the club’s longest-tenured player could allow Minnesota to leverage an area of considerable depth to fill out its pitching staff, while also saving $10.5MM in salary next season that could potentially be used to acquire even more pitching. That logic convinced MLBTR readers that Polanco should be dealt according to a poll back in October, where more than 56% voted in favor of the Twins dealing Polanco.
Given the clear incentives for the Twins to at least consider a Polanco trade, it’s hardly a surprise that the 30-year-old has garnered trade interest as recently as earlier this month from rival clubs. Even as the longtime infielder appears to be on the verge of getting squeezed out of the Twins’ infield mix, Polanco is still a quality everyday player. While he was limited to just 80 games this past season due to injuries, the switch-hitter nonetheless slashed a solid .255/.335/.454 (118 wRC+) while splitting time between second base, third base, and DH in 2023. That line is consistent with the numbers Polanco has posted throughout his time as an everyday player in the majors. Since he broke out as an above-average regular back in 2019, the infielder has slashed .267/.337/.458 with a wRC+ of 117. That’s good for ninth among qualified second baseman during that time span, just ahead of household names such as Gleyber Torres and Ozzie Albies.
While Polanco doesn’t generate much value with his glove, typically earning below-average marks by Outs Above Average and roughly average marks by Defensive Runs Saved, he makes up for it with his consistent, above-average offense and would be a clear upgrade for virtually any team in need of infield help ahead of the 2024 season. Further adding to Polanco’s value is his relatively affordable contract situation. As previously mentioned, Polanco is due just $10.5MM in 2024, an amount the majority of buying clubs should be able to stomach without much issue. What’s more, Polanco is not a pure rental thanks to a $12MM club option for 2024 that carries a fairly modest buyout of $750K.
Taken together, Polanco’s switch-hitting bat, offensive consistency, and affordable team control are surely an enticing package to plenty of clubs, even in spite of Polanco’s recent injury history and lackluster defense. With that said, which teams are the best fits for his services? The Angels, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Red Sox, and Yankees all appear more or less set around the infield, while the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, and White Sox all appear unlikely to spend significant money and prospect capital on a short-term infield solution. That still leaves nine teams as viable fits for Polanco’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…
Best Fits:
- Blue Jays: The Jays have a clear need around the infield after losing Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman to free agency, even after adding Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The club also recently lost their primary source of left-handed offense due to the departure of Brandon Belt. Polanco could help alleviate both of those issues as a switch-hitter who could add some pop to the lineup from the left side while slotting in as the club’s everyday second baseman, with the likes of Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, and Santiago Espinal left to compete for the third base job alongside Kiner-Falefa. Meanwhile, mercurial right-hander Alek Manoah could surely entice the Twins as a potential return given his significant upside and the ability of depth starter Louie Varland to step into the rotation should Manoah struggle to regain the form he showed in 2022, when he was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award.
- Cubs: Few teams got worse production from their third base corps in 2023 than the Cubs, who needed to plug the hole by trading for Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline last summer. With Candelario now suiting up for Cincinnati, the Cubs are once again left with a hole at third base and a dearth of left-handed pop in their lineup. The addition of Polanco could address both of those concerns; while the veteran infielder has primarily played second base during his career, he looked decent at the position when covering for Royce Lewis this past season and the Cubs had little issue converting Nick Madrigal from the keystone to the hot corner last spring. In exchange for Polanco’s services, the Cubs could dangle a young pitching prospect such as Hayden Wesneski or Ben Brown, both of whom have found themselves in the rumor mill this offseason.
- Mariners: After shipping Eugenio Suarez to Arizona earlier in the winter, the Mariners have plenty of room to improve upon their infield mix. Josh Rojas and Luis Urias are currently slated for everyday roles at second and third base, though the pair are likely better served platooning with each other. That opens the door for another infield addition, and Polanco could fit the bill as an everyday player at either position. While the switch-hitter is unlikely to net the Twins a young starter like Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller in trade (at least by himself), it’s possible a deal could come together centered around a less proven arm like Emerson Hancock.
Next Tier Down:
- Brewers: The Brewers have as significant of needs around the infield as any team, with little certainty anywhere outside of Willy Adames. Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio appear to be the club’s current best options at second and third base respectively, but adding Polanco would give a significant boost to the club’s offense while taking pressure off the aforementioned pair of youngsters. While Milwaukee is as good of a fit as any club for Polanco’s services, the recent departures of Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser leave the Brewers seemingly unlikely to further weaken their rotation depth by trading a starter to Minnesota. Meanwhile, the club’s many outfielders likely hold little appeal for the Twins, who have a deep outfield mix of their own already.
- Giants: The Giants, at least on paper, have a fairly solid infield mix that includes J.D. Davis, Thairo Estrada, and Wilmer Flores. With that being said, the club has been connected to free agency’s top infielder in Matt Chapman this winter, and Polanco could be a reasonable fallback option for San Francisco to improve their offensive production on the infield dirt should they fail to land Chapman. The club also has a handful of interesting young pitchers like Tristan Beck who they could consider dealing, though the club is seemingly hoping to land a player with more star power than Polanco provides this winter.
- Marlins: The Marlins are seemingly perpetually interested in acquiring hitting reinforcements by leveraging their deep group of pitchers, and it appears this offseason is no different as the likes of Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Trevor Rogers have all found their names in the rumor mill. What’s more, the sides got together on just this sort of deal last offseason, when the Twins landed Pablo Lopez in exchange for Luis Arraez. Polanco would be something of a tricky positional fit for the Miami, though they could conceivably move Josh Bell to DH and shift Arraez back to first, opening up second base for Polanco.
Longer Shots:
- Mets: The Mets appeared to be content with their infield mix as recently as earlier this month, when it appeared that Joey Wendle, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos would compete for playing time at third base while Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Alonso remained at their usual positions. That all changed when Mauricio suffered a torn ACL while playing winter ball, throwing the club’s infield plans into chaos. Even so, the Mets and Twins are something of an imperfect fit as trade partners. While Polanco’s two years of team control seemingly fits New York’s current strategy of making short-term additions that won’t encumber the team in the long haul, Polanco doesn’t offer the quality glove Mauricio did and his switch-hitting bat is likely less attractive given the number of lefty-swinging infielders the Mets already have at their disposal.
- Pirates: The Pirates evidently are looking to add a second baseman to their infield mix given their reported interest in a reunion with Adam Frazier, and the addition of Polanco would likely move the needle far more for the fourth-place club in 2024 should they hope to contend for the NL Central this season. The addition of Polanco would offer some veteran consistency to a young offense that dealt with extreme peaks and valleys throughout the 2023 campaign, and his 118 wRC+ last year would’ve been the best on Pittsburgh’s offense last year. With that being said, the Pirates still have a long way to go to catch up to the rest of the NL Central in 2024, and their rotation has even more question marks than Minnesota’s, rendering them unlikely to deal away a rotation piece like the Twins figure to seek.
- Royals: Trades within a division are exceptionally rare, particularly when both clubs are seemingly hoping to contend in the coming season. With that being said, there’s at least an on-paper fit between the Royals and Twins for a Polanco deal. Kansas City needs offense even after adding Hunter Renfroe in free agency earlier this month, and Polanco would represent a massive upgrade over Michael Massey at the keystone. Meanwhile, the Royals could offer a package centered around a young arm like Kris Bubic or Alec Marsh who may be squeezed out of the club’s rotation mix by the recent additions of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. It’s also worth noting that Kansas City and Minnesota got together on a notable trade as recently as last offseason, when the Royals sent Michael A. Taylor to the Twins in exchange for a pair of relief prospects.
Mets, Yankees Among Teams With Interest In Gio Urshela
The Mets and Yankees are among the teams interested in third baseman Gio Urshela, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic.
Urshela, of course, is no stranger to New York after enjoying a breakout season with the Yankees back in 2019 and spending three seasons in the Bronx. Since that breakout season, Urshela has established himself as an above-average regular in the infield with a .291/.335/.452 slash line good for a 115 wRC+ over the past five seasons with the Yankees, Twins, and Angels. Urshela has paired that above average offensive production with roughly average defense around the infield dirt, where he’s played primarily third base along with some shortstop and brief cameos at both first and second base.
The infielder’s market has been relatively quiet for most of the offseason to this point. The only potential connection to get any buzz to this point in the winter for Urshela was a recent report of interest from the Blue Jays, though even that comes with the caveat that Toronto’s interest may wane in the wake of the Isiah Kiner-Falefa signing. The relatively quiet market for Urshela’s services could connect back to the infielder’s injury-marred 2023 campaign. While he hit a decent .299/.329/.374 during his time in Anaheim, it’s worth noting the fact that he appeared in just 62 games with the club after his season came to an abrupt end in early June thanks to a pelvic fracture. Given Urshela’s downturn in power production as an Angel and the significant injury the 32-year-old is recovering from, it would be understandable if clubs viewed his free agency with some trepidation.
Even in spite of the question marks surrounding Urshela and his injury-plagued 2023 campaign, he still stands as one of the better infield options on the market this offseason. The unusually thin positional market has been hit particularly hard with regards to available infielders, with Urshela standing as one of the best players available behind third baseman Matt Chapman. The likes of Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Eduardo Escobar and Adam Frazier make up the next tier of players available, all of whom Urshela rates relatively favorably in comparison to.
Given that reality, it’s no surprise that the Mets would have at least some level of interest in Urshela’s services. Switch-hitting youngster Ronny Mauricio appeared to be in line for a shot to be the club’s regular third baseman in 2024, but the 22-year-old suffered an ACL tear while playing winter ball earlier this month, leaving the club with only Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Joey Wendle as options for regular starts at the hot corner entering next year. Both Baty and Vientos have struggled offensively in the majors and have questions about their defensive ability at third, while Wendle had previously been ticketed for a utility role in Queens next year. The addition of Urshela to the club’s mix would take pressure off of Baty and Vientos while given the Mets a right-handed complement to Wendle who is similarly versatile on defense.
Urshela’s fit with the Yankees is far less clear. With Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and Anthony Volpe all entrenched at first base, second base, and shortstop respectively, that leaves third base as the only uncertain infield position in the Bronx as things stand. While that’s Urshela’s native position, the club nonetheless has veteran DJ LeMahieu penciled in as the everyday third baseman as well as youngsters like Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera who could step into the club’s infield mix in the event of an injury. Even on the heels of a relative down season by LeMahieu’s standards, the addition of Urshela is not a clear upgrade over the 35-year-old veteran and would likely only serve to clog up the club’s infield mix further. Of course, it’s possible that a trade of a player such as Torres could free up space on the dirt and make a reunion between the Yankees and Urshela more plausible.
Sammon’s report also suggests that the two New York clubs are not the only ones with interest in Urshela’s services, though it does not name any other specific clubs. It’s at least possible Toronto still has interest in adding Urshela even after signing Kiner-Falefa, but other speculative fits for the infielder’s services include the Cubs, Mariners, and Brewers. Chicago currently figures to utilize some combination of Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Christopher Morel at third base, while the Brewers and Mariners appear likely to turn to Andruw Monasterio and Luis Urias respectively at the hot corner.
Free Agent Faceoff: Jorge Soler/J.D. Martinez
While the current free agent market for position players has generally been seen as one of the weaker ones in recent memory, there is one area where this winter’s crop has notable depth: right-handed sluggers. That market, at which Teoscar Hernandez resides as the clear top option this winter, is typically deepest at the lower levels of free agency. This season’s crop certainly has some depth at that level as well, with the likes of Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham currently available. The middle of the free agent market is where this group stands out, however. Mitch Garver has already landed with the Mariners on a two-year deal, with first baseman Rhys Hoskins and veteran infielder Justin Turner among the other options still available.
Two of the best regarded players in this part of the market are sluggers Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez. Both are primarily used as designated hitters and are coming off strong platform campaigns that saw them rebound from down performances in the previous three campaigns. Both have flashed 40-homer power in their careers previously, and both project for a similar guarantee this offseason: in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, MLBTR projected Soler for three years and $45MM guaranteed while Martinez projected for two years and $40MM.
Martinez sports the stronger platform campaign, having slugged 33 home runs in just 479 trips to the plate while slashing .271/.321/.572 with a wRC+ of 135. The veteran slugger also has the more prestigious track record as a six-time All Star who finished fourth in AL MVP voting back in 2018. Since Martinez broke out as a member of the Tigers back in 2014, he’s slashed an impressive .293/.359/.550 while never posting a below-average wRC+ in a full season. During that time, only Manny Machado, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado have slugged more homers than Martinez among active players, and his 140 wRC+ during that time ranks 12th among all active players. By contrast, Soler’s career-high wRC+ falls short of that impressive 140 mark and Soler has often interspersed seasons closer to league average between his All Star-caliber peaks.
That being said, Soler has some notable advantages of his own. Most obviously, he’s entering his age-32 campaign, while Martinez turned 36 back in August. That four year age gap also leaves Soler as less of a risk to suffer age-related decline over the course of his next contract. Teams could be particularly concerned about Martinez’s durability after he missed over a month with back and groin issues in 2023, causing him to appear in just 113 games for the Dodgers last season. On the other hand, of course, Soler missed the entire second half of the 2022 season due to a pelvis injury, though he was largely healthy this past season.
Aside from his relative youth and better health in 2023, Soler is among the most reliable players in the game when it comes to drawing walks, as demonstrated by his 11% walk rate since the start of the 2016 season. In fact, Soler is one of just 13 players to post a walk rate over 10% in each of the past eight seasons. That’s a list that does not include Martinez, who last posted a walk rate at that level back in 2019. That steady demonstration of plate discipline also highlights the fact that Soler’s strikeout rate has steadily improved in recent years, even as Martinez’s has begun to balloon.
While Soler’s career strikeout rate of 26.7% is two points higher than Martinez’s own career mark of 24.7%, they’ve been trending in opposite directions. Soler struck out at a career 27.9% clip through the end of the shortened 2020 season, while Martinez sported a strikeout rate of 24.2%. Over the past three seasons, however, Martinez has actually struck out more often than Soler with a 26% strikeout rate against Soler’s 25.1% figure.
Much of that has to do with the 2023 campaign, where Martinez struck out in a career-high 31.1% of plate appearances while Soler’s own 24.3% rate was the second-lowest of his career. While that shift toward whiffs has allowed Martinez to access more of his previous prodigious power after a down season in 2022 that saw him slug just 16 home runs, it’s fair to wonder if some clubs may prefer Soler’s more balanced approach to Martinez’s pure power profile, even as the veteran slugger outperformed Soler by nine points of wRC+ in 2023.
While that may not be enough to make Soler a more attractive target than Martinez, one elephant in the room that has not yet been addressed is defense. Soler’s glove leaves much to be desired, as demonstrated by his -5 Outs Above Average in right field this year and his -29 figure in the outfield since the start of the 2016 season. While Soler’s defense doesn’t offer much value to teams, it can’t be ignored that he is at least capable of playing a corner outfield spot on a semi-regular basis, something that cannot be said for Martinez.
The veteran slugger last appeared regularly on the grass back in 2017, when he was a member of the Diamondbacks before NL teams had access to the DH. By contrast, Soler has made 182 starts in the outfield corners over the past three seasons, more than half of the games he’s appeared in during that time. Even as Soler is far from a quality defender in the outfield, Martinez lacks the ability to play the outfield on more than an emergency basis at this stage of his career, complicating his fit for teams that already have a player on the roster who receives semi-frequent starts at DH or even simply prefer to use the DH as a way to rest regulars throughout the season.
Given the pair’s many similarities, it’s hardly a surprise that the two sluggers have somewhat overlapping markets this winter. Both have been directly to connected to the Mariners and Diamondbacks this offseason, while the Mets, Angels, and Blue Jays are all also known to have at least some interest in adding a bat-first slugger to their lineups this offseason. Martinez has generally been connected to those latter teams more frequently than Soler, though both players figure to be fits for each of the aforementioned teams this offseason to say nothing of clubs like the Marlins and Brewers who have not yet been connected to this area of the market but would surely benefit from another bat-first player in the lineup.
So, which one do you think teams should prioritize? Is Martinez’s lengthy track record and unparalleled power potential too enticing to pass up, or does Soler’s youth, ability to play defense, and more balanced approach in recent years outweigh those considerations?
Who Should Land The Bigger Contract?
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Jorge Soler 62% (2,883)
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J.D. Martinez 38% (1,798)
Total votes: 4,681
Blue Jays Looking To Add Bat-First Players, Have “Strong Interest” In Joc Pederson
After missing out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto despite finishing as finalists for both stars, the Blue Jays have recently pivoted to smaller moves than the blockbusters they were contemplating earlier in the offseason. They’ve re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and added utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to their infield mix over the past week and a recent report regarded the club as the leaders for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. According to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the club has also continued to be active in the positional market since signing Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa, showing strong interest in free agent slugger Joc Pederson.
Pederson, who MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern profiled just this morning, is coming off something of a down season with the Giants in 2023. The 31-year-old got off to a scorching hot start this past season with a .281/.394/.518 (150 wRC+) slash line through June 17, though that stretch accounted for just 137 plate appearances as the slugger battled wrist and hand injuries early in the season. While Pederson managed to avoid the injured list throughout the remainder of the season, his performance declined significantly throughout the remainder of the campaign. In 288 trips to the plate from June 18 onward, Pederson hit a meager .213/.326/.369 (92 wRC+), a performance that dragged his overall season line down to .235/.348/.416 (111 wRC+). While Pederson’s 20.8% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate were more or less in line with his earlier production, Pederson’s BABIP shrunk from .317 to just .247 while his power production suffered a simultaneously dip.
After crushing seven home runs in just 36 games early in the season, Pederson’s final 85 appearances saw him hit just eight round-trippers. Interestingly, the disparity in production came with similar peripheral numbers; Pederson had the same groundball percentage of 39.5% both before and after the aforementioned June 17 cutoff, and his soft contact rate actually went down from 12.8% to 10.8% the rest of the way. Given the minimal change in Pederson’s peripherals regarding batted balls and plate discipline, it’s seemingly fair to expect improved performance in 2024, particularly if he moves to a more homer-friendly park outside of San Francisco. That conclusion is further supported by Pederson’s excellent .368 xwOBA, which outstrips his wOBA by 37 points and is a mirror image of the .367 xwOBA he posted during his dominant 2022 campaign.
If Pederson can even come close to replicating his 2022 season, where he slashed an excellent .271/.353/.521 (146 wRC+) en route to his second career All Star campaign, he’d be an excellent fit for a Blue Jays roster short on left-handed bats following the departure of Brandon Belt, who posted a 138 wRC+ in 103 games this year as the club’s primary DH. Though Pederson primarily played DH in 2023 due to an outfield logjam in San Francisco, the slugger could also help to take some pressure off of Daulton Varsho in left field after a difficult 2023 season. The addition of Pederson would go along way to improving a Toronto offense that underperformed somewhat in 2023 and has since lost both Belt and Matt Chapman to free agency.
Of course, it’s important to note that Nicholson-Smith suggests that things are far from a done deal between the two sides, with the Diamondbacks, Angels, Giants, and Cubs all standing as other potential suitors (though the Cubs, Nicholson-Smith notes, may only have interest should they fail to re-sign Cody Bellinger). Likewise, the Blue Jays are interested in plenty of potential bat-first options beyond Pederson, with Nicholson-Smith name-checking each of Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto, and Justin Turner. Nicholson-Smith goes on to suggest that a deal with Pederson wouldn’t preclude the Jays from adding a second player from that mold, though it’s worth noting that with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base only Justin Turner has recent experience elsewhere on the diamond, meaning Pederson would likely need to play the outfield on a regular basis in that scenario.
Alex Anthopoulos, Craig Breslow Discuss Chris Sale Trade
The Braves and Red Sox got together on a major trade earlier today where Boston swapped left-hander Chris Sale and cash considerations to Atlanta in exchange for infielder Vaughn Grissom. In the aftermath of the deal’s announcement, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow both spoke to reporters about the deal and what’s next for their organization as 2023 comes to a close.
Anthopoulos spoke glowingly of Sale in the aftermath of the deal, describing him to reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) as a “playoff-caliber starter” while noting that adding such a pitcher to the club’s rotation was a major goal for the Braves this offseason. With right-hander Kyle Wright having undergone shoulder surgery and been shipped to Kansas City earlier this offseason, the club had little certainty behind its front-of-the-rotation duo of Spencer Strider and Max Fried.
Veteran righty Charlie Morton figured to slot into the #3 spot in the rotation, but posted the highest full-season walk rate of his career in 2023 and celebrated his 40th birthday last month. Meanwhile, youngster Bryce Elder started the season strong but faded down the stretch with a 5.49 ERA across his final 15 starts. The addition of Sale, a seven-time All Star who posted a 3.16 ERA across his final 15 starts last season, adds an arm with potentially elite upside to the club’s mix while also bolstering the club’s overall pitching depth to help make up for the departure of Wright. As noted by The Athletic’s David O’Brien, Anthopoulos made clear that Sale is “locked” into the club’s rotation for 2024 alongside Fried, Strider, and Morton.
Of course, it can’t be ignored that Sale has managed just 31 starts over the past four years due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery. Anthopoulos acknowledged the injury concerns that come with adding the veteran lefty, but noted that “anyone you acquire, there’s risk” while also adding that “it was a shot we wanted to take” thanks in part to Anthopoulos’s strong belief in Sale’s ability and makeup.
“We think he’s an absolute perfect fit with our group,” Anthoupolos said, “We’ll get to know him and we’ll do everything we can to put him in the best position to stay healthy and have success.”
When discussing the club’s plans for the remainder of the offseason, Anthopolous remained vague, noting that the offseason has no set end point and that moves continue to happen even into Spring Training. He went on to note that the club will “keep an open mind” for the remainder of the offseason. It wouldn’t be a shock if the club was done with the heavy-lifting of its offseason at this point, as they’ve already bolstered the pitching staff with Reynaldo Lopez and traded for a starting left fielder in Jarred Kelenic in addition to the acquisition of Sale.
On the other end of the trade, Breslow called moving on from Sale “a really tough, tough decision” when speaking to reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe), particularly considering Sale’s legacy as a key piece of the club’s 2018 World Series team. At the same time, Breslow lauded Grissom for his “really strong right-handed bat” while also noting that he figures to remain under club control for the next six seasons.
“I’ve talked long about the exciting emerging core of players around whom we want to build,” Breslow said, “…we certainly count Vaughn in that group.”
Though Breslow noted that Grissom has the versatility to play all over the field, he made clear that he views the 22-year-old as the club’s everyday second baseman. That would seemingly leave veteran infielder Trevor Story poised to return to shortstop on a full-time basis. Story struggled in 43 games last season after returning from UCL surgery over the summer, but prior to that injury had a long track record as a quality, two-way shortstop that earned him a six-year, $140MM deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2022 season.
One curious aspect of the deal from Boston’s perspective is that the club has made adding to its starting rotation an explicit goal throughout the offseason, and parting ways with Sale, who in spite of his recent injuries arguably remained their highest-ceiling starter, creates an even bigger hole in their starting five. Breslow emphasized (as relayed by Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) that the club still plans to add to its rotation even after yesterday’s signing of Lucas Giolito, and that the club views both free agency and the trade market as potential avenues for a deal. Speier relays that Breslow noted the importance of the club being willing to part with prospects in order to acquire “quality, controllable starting pitching.”
The club has recently been linked to a reunion with left-hander James Paxton while also frequently being connected to top remaining rotation arms such as Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga. Of course, there are plenty of other players still available who could represent an upgrade for the club’s rotation including Marcus Stroman and Yariel Rodriguez in free agency or Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber on the trade market. A trade would likely become an even more attractive route for adding to the rotation if the club’s reported pursuit of outfielder Teoscar Hernandez winds up successful, as it would add an everyday bat to the outfield mix and make the likes of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela easier to part with in trade.
Free Agent Profile: Marcus Stroman
The free agent market has been slower than usual this winter, but one area of the market that has stayed fairly consistently active throughout the offseason has been the starting pitching market. More than half of the league entered the offseason in hopes of acquiring a starter or two this winter, and deals have come together for many of them. While the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes have held things up for many top-of-the-market options, potential mid-rotation arms have seen no such delay in free agency as players like Kenta Maeda, Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez have all been among the players to come off the board since free agency officially opened in early November.
That flurry of activity has left the pickings fairly slim in this area of the market, even as the top of the market still features the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and plenty of lower-level options like James Paxton and Sean Manaea remain available. One mid-rotation piece who has yet to be taken off the market is right-hander Marcus Stroman, who opted out of the final year and $21MM on his contract with the Cubs to test free agency last month. Since Stroman’s decision, there has been little public interest in the right-handers services. The Royals reportedly engaged with the righty earlier this offseason, though the club added both Lugo and Wacha to their rotation since then and appear to be done making significant additions to the roster.
It’s somewhat understandable that Stroman hasn’t generated major interest so far this offseason. The right-hander is entering his age-33 season, meaning he’s older than the likes of Rodriguez, Wacha, and Giolito. What’s more, the righty is coming off a injury-marred campaign in Chicago where he missed six weeks due to a rib cartilage fracture and posted a brutal 8.29 ERA across his final 11 appearances with the Cubs. That clubs may be hesitant about a pitcher entering his mid-thirties who struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half last year is hardly surprising, but that lack of interest could make Stroman one of the more undervalued assets available in free agency this offseason.
After all, Stroman was among the most dominant pitchers in baseball in the first half, with a sterling 2.28 ERA in 98 2/3 innings of work across his first sixteen starts of the season. That dominant performance earned Stroman the second All Star nod of his career, and while the righty’s 3.33 FIP and .235 BABIP indicate some of that exceptional run prevention may have been due to good fortune, that FIP was still considerably better than league average and his incredible 59.9% groundball rate surely helped to explain his unusually low home run rate. Meanwhile, Stroman’s atrocious results in the second half were generally not backed up by underlying metrics; his aforementioned 8.29 ERA in the second half was more than four runs higher than his far more palatable 4.23 FIP, and his strikeout and walk rates only worsened slightly as he punched out 19.3% of batters faced while walking 9.6%.
Taken together, Stroman’s 2023 season paints a picture of a playoff-caliber, mid-rotation arm: the right-hander posted a 3.95 ERA (113 ERA+) with a 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work while striking out 20.7% of batters, walking 9%, and generating grounders at a 57.7% clip across 27 appearances (25 starts). That was good for the 18th-best FIP in baseball last year among pitchers who made at least 25 starts, sandwiched between Montgomery and Mets right-hander Kodai Senga. If Stroman can as much as match his peripheral numbers from 2023 with improved health and batted ball luck, he figures to be a quality piece who could improve the majority of rotations around the league. And while both of his seasons in Chicago saw the right-hander miss time due to injury, Stroman has made 32+ starts four times in his career, most recently in 2021 as a member of the Mets.
The Cubs have been connected to pitchers such as Shota Imanaga in free agency and Shane Bieber via trade this offseason, and Stroman previously publicly expressed his desire to remain in Chicago long-term over the summer, ahead of the trade deadline. While a reunion between the sides has not been rumored to this point in the offseason, the Cubs certainly remain a fit for the righty’s services as they look for an additional arm to pair with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon in the rotation. Looking beyond Chicago, the Red Sox are in the hunt for pitching and could benefit from pairing Stroman’s stable, mid-rotation production with higher variance pitchers like Giolito and Brayan Bello, while the Giants, Padres, Yankees, and Rangers are among the many teams who could look for rotation upgrades going forward this offseason.
Though many of those clubs would surely prefer to add a player such as Snell, Montgomery, or even Imanaga to their rotation mix, each of those southpaws is expected to garner $100MM or more on the open market. At this point in the offseason, teams hoping to add a playoff-caliber starter without breaking the bank will be hard-pressed to find a better option than Stroman, who was projected by MLBTR for just two years and $44MM in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. That appears to be more or less par for the course in the mid-rotation market, as Giolito landed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox while Lugo received a three-year, $45MM guarantee from the Royals. If Stroman does garner a similar contract to the other mid-rotation arms available this winter, it’s easy to imagine the deal proving to be among the more cost-effective pitching signings of the offseason should he manage a full, healthy season in 2024.
Orioles Sign Michael Perez, Albert Suarez To Minor League Deals
The Orioles announced seven minor league deals this afternoon, with catcher Michael Perez and right-hander Albert Suarez standing out as the only two with previous major league experience.
Perez, was a fifth-round pick by the Diamondbacks in the 2011 draft but didn’t make his major league debut until 2018 as a member of the Rays. Perez spent three seasons in Tampa backing up Wilson Ramos and, later, Mike Zunino. Those three seasons saw Perez get into just 84 games total, where he slashed a meager .221/.286/.314 in 228 trips to the plate. That weak performance eventually led the club to designate Perez for assignment as they sought to revamp their catching corps following their AL pennant-winning 2020 season.
Perez then returned to the NL to serve as the backup to Jacob Stallings in Pittsburgh for the 2021 season after being claimed off waivers from the Rays. While Perez appeared in a career-high 70 games for the Pirates in 2021, he only managed an anemic .143/.221/.290 slash line in 231 plate appearances. Despite that weak performance, Perez remained with Pittsburgh to start the 2022 season before eventually being traded to the Mets just before the trade deadline that summer.
The Mets eventually designated Perez for assignment in October before reuniting with him on a minor league deal later in the offseason. Perez then managed to secure a spot on the 40-man roster back in May following the placements of Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido on the injured list, but the veteran journeyman appeared in just three games for the Mets throughout the year, as he spent most of his 2023 campaign at the Triple-A level. The Mets ultimately outrighted Perez off the roster when the offseason arrived, and he departed for minor league free agency.
Now in Baltimore, Perez figures to act as non-roster depth for the Orioles behind the club’s catching tandem of Adley Rutschman and James McCann alongside fellow minor league signing David Banuelos, who has no major league experience but slashed an impressive .270/.369/.526 at the Double-A level for the Twins last year.
As for Suarez, the 34-year-old right-hander last appeared in the major leagues in 2017 as a member of the Giants. For his career, the righty sports a 4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP across 115 2/3 innings of work in the majors. Since then, Suarez briefly appeared with the Diamondbacks at the Triple-A level before trying his luck overseas. The righty managed a 3.00 ERA in 162 innings of work in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball before moving on to the Korea Baseball Organization, where he pitched for the Samsung Lions for two years. In that time, Suarez appeared in 49 games for the Lions, 48 of them starts. The righty struck out 19.4% of batters faced while posting a 3.04 ERA in 281 2/3 innings of work for the Lions before ultimately being released to make room for right-hander Taylor Widener back in August.
After half a decade overseas, Suarez is now returning to stateside ball as a member of the Orioles organization, where he figures to serve as non-roster pitching depth who could pitch both out of the rotation or in the bullpen. It’s a role he shares with Tucker Davidson, who the club outrighted to the minor leagues earlier this offseason. Suarez figures to compete alongside the likes of Davidson, Mike Baumann, and Bruce Zimmermann for a role on the big league club this spring.
Blue Jays Have Reportedly “Taken The Lead” In Yariel Rodriguez Sweepstakes
After missing out on top free agents Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto earlier this month, the Blue Jays have ramped up activity at the lower levels of the market of late by re-signing center fielder Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year pact and landing utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa on a two-year deal in recent days. It appears the club isn’t stopping there, as Enrique Rojas of ESPN reported Friday afternoon that the club has “taken the lead” in the sweepstakes for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, who Rojas adds is “close” to making a decision in free agency. It’s hardly a surprise that the Blue Jays have interest in Rodriguez, as a recent report indicated that Toronto was among several teams with interest in the righty.
Rodriguez, 27 in March, is among the most intriguing free agents available on the market this offseason. The right-hander was granted free agency by MLB back in early November after being released from his deal with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons back in October. Rodriguez’s professional career began in Cuba during the 2015-16 season, and he spent six seasons pitching primarily as a starter to solid results in his home country before joining the Dragons ahead of the 2020 campaign. Upon arriving in Japan, Rodriguez was moved to the bullpen and broke out in a big way during the 2022 campaign, where he posted a dominant 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate.
Rodriguez participated in the World Baseball Classic in early 2023 as a member of Team Cuba and began to stretch back out as a starter in that series, throwing 7 1/3 innings across two appearances. After the event, Rodriguez declined to report back to the Dragons and sat out the 2023 season before securing his release after the season. Since then, Rodriguez has hosted workouts for a host of MLB clubs in the Dominican Republic, allowing scouts an opportunity to see the right-hander up close.
Whether Rodriguez will be able to stick in the majors as a starter or not has been a point of division among clubs throughout his free agency, though the Blue Jays reportedly fall into the camp that views him as a starting pitcher alongside teams such as the Pirates and Red Sox. While Rodriguez has also received recent interest from the Reds, Padres, and Yankees, each reportedly prefers the right-hander as a reliever. Due in part to that division on whether his future is in the rotation or the bullpen, Rodriguez’s position as the #28 free agent on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a deal worth $32MM over four years, is less concrete than other free agents of a similar caliber.
In spite of the uncertainty involved in Rodriguez’s free agency, the Blue Jays are a solid fit for the right-hander’s services. While Toronto has a full rotation on paper with a stable quartet of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi, the uncertainty surrounding right-hander Alek Manoah creates a major question mark at the back of the club’s starting staff. Manoah was a finalist for the AL Cy Young award in 2022 with a dominant 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of work, but his performance fell off a cliff in 2023 as he managed an ERA of just 5.87 in 19 starts for Toronto as he spent much of the summer in the minor leagues.
By adding Rodriguez to the club’s mix, the Blue Jays add additional starting depth to the club’s mix while also giving Manoah significant competition for the fifth starter role entering the season. If Rodriguez were to either struggle in the rotation or simply be pushed out by the re-emergence of Manoah or a strong debut from top prospect Ricky Tiedemann, he could then be utilized to bolster a bullpen that lost Jordan Hicks to free agency last month. Hicks’s departure leaves open a vacancy at the back of Toronto’s bullpen alongside closer Jordan Romano and set-up man Erik Swanson, where Rodriguez would be an excellent fit if he wound up outside of the club’s preferred rotation mix.