The Opener: Offseason In Review, Astros, Player Chat
With Spring Training games set to begin tomorrow, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. MLBTR’s Offseason In Review Series Begins
With the offseason now mostly over, the 2022-23 installment of MLBTR’s annual “Offseason in Review” series is set to begin today. Standing as a counterpart to the “Offseason Outlook” series, MLBTR publishes a look back at the offseason, signings, trades, and transactions for each of the 30 clubs. The series kicks off today with the Pirates, and following the post going live, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald will be hosting a Pirates-centric live chat for readers at noon CT. If you’d like to submit a question in advance for that Pirates-centric chat, you can do so here. Fans of the other 29 teams should keep an eye out for their own team’s Offseason in Review installment as we continue the series throughout the coming weeks.
2. Will the Astros look to add depth following McCullers injury?
Yesterday, it was revealed that Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. is likely to miss the start of the 2023 campaign due to a muscle strain in his right arm. While it’s currently unknown exactly how much time McCullers will miss, it does shine a light on Houston’s starting pitching depth following last summer’s trade of Jake Odorizzi and Justin Verlander‘s free-agent departure. With McCullers on the shelf, the Opening Day rotation for the Astros looks likely to be led by lefty Framber Valdez, who’ll pair with righties Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and top prospect Hunter Brown. It’s still an enviable group, to be sure.
Should Houston’s rotation suffer another injury, however, the depth gets a bit shakier. Righty Brandon Bielak is perhaps the best option to take a turn in the rotation, given former top prospect Forrest Whitley‘s struggles at the Triple-A level last season. It’s arguable the Astros should look to add low-cost depth this spring, be it through a minor trade or perhaps by signing a veteran like Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer to a minor league deal.
3. MLBTR Player Chat
Yesterday, MLBTR was pleased to welcome international scout and former major league pitchers Ryan Sadowski for a live chat with readers, the transcript of which you can read here. Today, our series of live chats with people around the game continues as we’re excited to welcome another former big leaguer who transitioned into a scouting career following the end of his time as a player. Brian Johnson spent parts of eight seasons as a catcher in the big leagues, from 1994 until 2001. His best season came in 1997, where he played in 101 games, slashing .261/.303/.443 (94 wRC+) while playing for both the Giants and the Tigers. Originally drafted by the Yankees, Johnson also played for the Padres, Reds, Royals, and Dodgers throughout his career. Johnson ended with 471 games played before moving on to a career in pro scouting, where he was with the Giants for all three of their World Series titles from 2010-14. Be sure to check back at 10am CT this morning for the live chat!
The Opener: Solano, Outfield Market, Live Chats
As we eagerly await the return of baseball games later this week, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Solano signing could be made official:
The Twins signed Donovan Solano to a major league deal yesterday, further adding to what was already a deep position player group. The signing is reportedly pending a physical and has yet to be announced. As Spring Training has kicked into gear, however, the turnaround on the signing being made official could become shorter. (For example, Elvis Andrus‘s deal with the White Sox was announced the day after being initially reported.) The Twins will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move to officially add Solano, but with both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis expected to miss significant time to open the season, sending either player to the 60-day IL would clear a spot without needing to designate someone for assignment. Presumably, a big league deal with the right-handed-hitting Solano will rule out a match between the Twins and formerly rumored target Yuli Gurriel.
2. Outfield market update
The outfield market has thinned further over the past week as Robbie Grossman signed with the Rangers late last week while Tyler Naquin agreed to a minor league deal with Milwaukee yesterday. Of course, Jurickson Profar remains unsigned and tops not only the outfield market, but the entire free agent market at this point in the offseason. Looking beyond Profar, though, there are few players remaining who seem like strong bets to receive major league deals at this point. Potentially interesting fliers remain on the market such as Albert Almora, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Ben Gamel, but none of those players seem clearly better than Naquin, who had to settle for a minor league deal.
3. MLBTR Live Chats
Yesterday, MLBTR welcomed former MLB hitting coach Rick Eckstein for a live chat with readers, the transcript of which you can read here. Today, we’re excited to welcome former major league pitcher and longtime international scout Ryan Sadowski, who will be conducting a live chat of his own with readers this morning. Sadowski made the big leagues in 2009 as a member of the Giants and made six starts for the club, pitching to a 4.45 ERA (97 ERA+) across 28 1/3 innings of work. Following his stint in the big leagues, Sadowski headed overseas, where he pitched in the KBO for three seasons, logging a 4.03 ERA in 460 innings abroad. Since retiring as a player, Sadowski has worked as an international scout with the KBO’s Kia Tigers and as the director of international scouting for the KBO’s Lotte Giants. Be sure to tune in later today at 10am CT for Sadowski’s live chat.
Meanwhile, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be conducting his own weekly chat, following yesterday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams (transcript here). Should you have any remaining unanswered questions about your favorite team or the league in general as the baseball world gears back up for the spring, you can follow this link to submit a question in advance, and that same link will take you to the chat once it begins at 5pm CT this evening.
Examining The Cubs’ Fifth Starter Options
Longtime Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is expected to begin the season on the injured list, setting the 2023 Opening Day roster in Chicago up to be the first one to not include a member of the 2016 World Series championship team since 2012 following the departure of Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward over the offseason. As fans on the north side of Chicago begin getting used to the new era of Cubs baseball, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer’s front office has an important question to answer this spring: who will take Hendricks’s turn in the rotation while he’s injured?
As manager David Ross told reporters, including the Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro, young righties Keegan Thompson and Adbert Alzolay do not figure into the club’s rotation plans, with both players expected to start the season as members of the bullpen. That still leaves plenty of options for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation behind Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Drew Smyly, however. Two players in particular seem. to have the inside track toward the first crack at starting for the big league club in 2023:
Perhaps the most likely contender for the role, the journeyman Sampson is entering his age-31 season with a strong chance at an extended look in the big leagues for just the third time in his career. Sampson’s tenure as a member of the Cubs began late in the 2021 season following a late August call-up. Across 10 appearances and five starts, Sampson pitched well, with a 2.80 ERA (152 ERA+) in his 35 1/3 innings of work. The underlying metrics didn’t feel so positively about his performance, however, as Sampson allowed a minuscule .232 BABIP and left a whopping 88.4% of runners on base despite over one in five of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard. Those red flags left him with a concerning 5.72 ERA, but the Cubs saw enough in Sampson to sign him to another minors deal for the 2022 season.
The 2022 season proved to be something of a revelation for Sampson after he received an opportunity in Chicago’s rotation following a slew of injuries. In 104 1/3 innings across 21 appearances (19 starts), Sampson pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (132 ERA+) that, unlike the previous season, was more supported by underlying metrics. Sampson’s BABIP of .288 and LOB% of 77.6% both returned to figures far closer to his career norms of .299 and 76%, respectively, giving him a much more palatable 3.79 FIP on the season. Much of this improvement came from a drastically reduced home run rate, however, as Sampson saw just 7.7% of his fly balls allowed leave the yard during the 2022 campaign. That rate isn’t likely to be sustainable going forward, leaving a major red flag in Sampson’s profile entering the 2023 season.
Given his success in 2022 and the $1.9MM salary he agreed to for 2023 in a pre-tender deal with the Cubs, it would make plenty of sense if the veteran righty had the inside track to the fifth starter’s job to open the 2023 season even in spite of those concerns. That being said, Sampson still has a minor league option remaining, meaning he could be stashed in Triple-A as depth should he not make the Opening Day rotation. Furthermore, for a team like the Cubs with a handful of pitching prospects approaching the big leagues, it would be understandable for the organization to prioritize figuring out what they have in those youngsters over giving a journeyman like Sampson an extended run, even following his big league success in 2022.
One such pitching prospect is Wesneski, the right-hander the Cubs acquired from the Yankees at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. Wesneski made his big league debut in September and found instant success, even throwing an immaculate inning during his late season cup of coffee. Overall, Wesneski pitched to a sterling 2.18 ERA (190 ERA+) over 33 innings. He also struck out a quarter of opponents with a meager 5.3% walk rate, leading to an excellent 3.20 FIP backing up his raw run prevention numbers.
This fantastic performance towards the end of the season has seen Wesneski generate considerable hype throughout the offseason, and he enters Spring Training as Sampson’s likely biggest challenger for the fifth starter role in Chicago. As previously mentioned, the Cubs have an assortment of interesting pitching prospects in the upper levels of their minor league system, including Caleb Kilian, Ben Brown, and DJ Herz. Given this reality, it would make plenty of sense for the Cubs to use these early season innings to get Wesneski more experience against big league pitching and see how the league adjusts to him following his strong debut.
However, with just four starts and six total appearances in the big leagues under his belt, it would be understandable if the Cubs wanted to take things slowly with Wesneski. After all, the righty just turned 25 years old and has multiple minor league option years remaining. Additionally, Wesneski’s 143 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors in 2022 was a career high, so it’s possible the Cubs will be keeping a close eye on his innings this season, while the club is still working towards a return to contention.
Other Options
While Sampson and Wesneski appear to be the front-runners for the job, there’s a few other players who seem likely to be in the mix for the fifth spot in Chicago’s Opening Day rotation. Ross specifically mentioned right-hander Javier Assad as a potential candidate. Assad, like Wesneski, is entering his age-25 season in 2023 and received a brief cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2022. Over 37 2/3 innings across nine appearances and eight starts, Assad pitched to a strong 3.11 ERA (133 ERA+), though his unimpressive 18.1% strikeout rate and concerning 12% walk rate leave plenty of room for concern, as demonstrated by his 4.49 FIP.
In addition to Assad, a pair of non-roster invitees could see consideration for a rotation spot. Nick Neidert spent his career as a member of the Mariners and Marlins organizations prior to signing with the Cubs on a minor league deal this offseason, and pitched well in 2022, both in 46 innings at the Triple-A level (1.96 ERA) and in a spot start for the Marlins in the big leagues (3.60 ERA over five innings), though he spent much of the season on the injured list.
Meanwhile, Roenis Elias has some success in the big leagues, with a career 3.96 ERA (98 ERA+) and 4.26 FIP in 395 2/3 innings of work in the big leagues. Elias also delivered a particularly strong performance in the Dominican Winter League this offseason, posting a fantastic 0.92 ERA in 39 innings of work. On the other hand, most of Elias’s recent big league experience has come out of the bullpen, with the lefty starting just 5 major league games since the start of the 2016 season. Both Elias and Assad are also set to pitch in the World Baseball Classic this spring, giving the Cubs a unique potential look at their abilities in a more competitive setting than Spring Training can usually provide.
Between Sampson, Wesneski, and the above trio of darkhorse options, the Cubs have an interesting choice to make ahead of Opening Day regarding who will take up Hendricks’s spot in the rotation until he returns from the injured list. It’s possible injuries could make the decision easier by that time, either by taking options out of the running or opening up more spots in the rotation for those competing. Even if that happens, though, the Cubs appear to be in a good place in terms of quality starting pitching depth as they begin to prepare for the 2023 campaign.
AL Notes: Judge, Brash, Tigers, White Sox
After spending most of his career in right field and spending much of 2022 in center, it’s possible the reigning AL MVP will be taking reps in left field this spring. Yankees manager Aaron Boone tells reporters, including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, that Judge playing some left field is “on the table” for this spring.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported yesterday that this was a consideration, with the goal being to allow slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who figures to be the team’s primary designated hitter, to play right on his days in the outfield due to Yankee Stadium’s outfield being far more spacious in left than in right. For his part, Judge told reporters, including ESPN’s Marly Rivera, that he wouldn’t mind Stanton playing more right field and taking reps in left if needed.
Stanton struggled with durability early on in his Yankees career, including just 41 games played in the 2019 and 2020 seasons combined. Since then, his transition to primarily playing DH has seemingly helped him stay on the field, as he played 249 games combined across the past two seasons, with just 64 of those games including an appearance in the outfield. In 2022, 34 of Stanton’s 38 games in the outfield took place in right, as Judge spent most of his time in center field. This year, 2022 trade deadline acquisition Harrison Bader figures to get most of the reps in center field, leaving Judge to spend more time in left if Stanton is to continue to make most his outfield starts in right.
More from the American League…
- The Athletic’s Corey Brock discussed yesterday the role of Mariners right-hander Matt Brash, who is set to begin the 2023 season as a member of the bullpen. Brash made the 2022 Opening Day roster as a starter but struggled mightily, posting a 7.65 ERA across five starts before being demoted to Triple-A. Brash returned later in the season as a reliever and dominated, posting a 2.35 ERA in 30 2/3 innings of work out of the bullpen down the stretch. Brock notes that Brash hopes to get another shot at starting in the future, and though he isn’t being stretched out this spring, the Mariners remain open to the possibility down the line.
- Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke to the media, including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, yesterday about the relatively quiet offseason in Detroit. Harris made note that, follow a disappointing 96-loss season, it didn’t make sense to acquire short term veterans who would take up what he called valuable at-bats that could go to young players who would be part of the next core. Detroit acquired a few such players, particularly in the trade that sent reliever Gregory Soto to the Phillies. That deal brought back Matt Vierling, Nick Maton, and Donny Sands, all of whom figure to get playing time in the big leagues with Detroit in 2023.
- Staying in the AL Central, White Sox GM Rick Hahn discussed how Chicago’s offseason had gone with reporters yesterday, including James Fegan of The Athletic. The White Sox made three key additions to their roster following a disappointing 81-81 campaign, signing righty Mike Clevinger, outfielder Andrew Benintendi, and most recently infielder Elvis Andrus to big league deals, with Benintendi’s five-year, $75MM contract being the only multiyear pact of the group. Hahn, referring back to his comments earlier in the offseason that he expected the club to be active on the trade market, noted the discrepancy between that expectation and what came to pass, saying “I did expect there to be more trades… You go into the offseason with needs and potential fits, and over the course of the offseason, you adjust based on what’s viable, both in free agency and via trade. Sometimes teams are pricing guys differently than expected.” As Fegan notes, a quiet offseason on the south side is somewhat unsurprising giving the club’s stated expectation that payroll would stay largely static headed into 2023.
The Opener: Report Dates, Infield Market, MLBTR Chats
As the return of baseball games rapidly approaches, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. All players to have reported to camp:
The last 12 clubs have set their official report date for position players today. While the vast majority of players have already had their official report dates, and many players whose official report date was today reported early, today marks the day that every player invited to major league Spring Training for in present in camp. As always on official report dates, there’s a chance previously unknown injuries are revealed regarding players reporting for the first time today. Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes, Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby, and Mariners outfielder Taylor Trammell are among the players who were revealed to be injured upon arriving in camp this spring. Spring Training games are set to begin at the end of the week.
2. Infield Market Update
So far this week, shortstop Elvis Andrus, third baseman Edwin Rios and (just this morning) first baseman Luke Voit have all signed — Andrus with the White Sox, Rios with the Cubs, and Voit with the Brewers. Though the free agent market has largely thinned out to this point, there are still a handful of interesting players available who can contribute at the big league level.
Donovan Solano has experience at both second and third base and, though he is coming off a down season, was roughly league average with the bat in 2022 (98 wRC+). Jose Iglesias has largely been just below league average with the bat for his career outside of a outlier 2020 season with the Orioles where he posted a whopping 160 wRC+ (thanks, in large part, to a .407 BABIP that far outstrips his career .307 mark), but he has long been a reliable defender up the middle and could help an infield-needy club. Moving to first base, Yuli Gurriel and Miguel Sano remain on the market. Gurriel won a batting title in 2021 but saw his production crater in 2022, his age-38 season. Sano has been wildly inconsistent in his career and spent most of ’22 on the injured list but has as much raw power as nearly anyone in baseball.
3. MLBTR Live Chats Today
Yesterday, MLBTR had the pleasure of hosting a live chat with former MLB scout Tim Kissner for readers, the transcript of which you can read here. Today, our series of live chats with people from around the game continues as we’re excited to host Rick Eckstein, a former MLB hitting coach. Eckstein was the hitting coach for the Nationals from 2009-2013, and served as the Pirates’ hitting coach for three seasons, 2019-2021. Between those stints as a hitting coach, Eckstein also spent time as a member of the Angels and Twins organizations. In addition to his time as a major league coach, Eckstein also served as an assistant coach for the University of Kentucky. Keep an eye out for Eckstein’s chat at 3:30pm central time today.
Also today, at 11am CT, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting a live chat where he will field questions from readers. Be sure to stop by and ask any questions you might have about your favorite team or the larger baseball world as Spring Training gets underway and the offseason comes to a close. You can submit a question in advance, and use the same link to access the chat once it begins.
The Opener: Position Players Report, Press Conference, Live Chat
With just a few short days until Spring Training games begin, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Official report date for position players:
Today marks the official position player report date for 18 clubs. Many of those organizations will be having their first full team workouts of the spring today, and as was the case on official report dates for pitchers, there’s a chance that as players continue reporting to camp, as of yet unknown injuries reveal themselves. Of course, many players report to camp early, so several position players have been in camp for days or even weeks ahead of the official report date. The twelve clubs that don’t have their official report date for position players today have them tomorrow. Spring Training games begin later this week.
2. Cohen Press Conference
Per Tim Healey of Newsday Sports, Mets owner Steve Cohen will be holding a press conference this morning. Cohen made waves throughout the baseball world this winter as he was seemingly unbothered by the so-called “Cohen Tax” threshold of the luxury tax, blowing past the $293MM threshold in building a 2023 club with a payroll of nearly $374MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. Cohen’s willingness to spend far beyond what other owners have been willing to spend in the past appears to have been a factor in the creation of the league’s new “economic reform committee”, which has the stated goal of looking at ways to reduce revenue disparity between clubs, but could be a precursor to owners making an effort to institute a salary cap in the future.
3. MLBTR Chat with former scout Tim Kissner:
MLBTR occasionally hosts live chats where former players and other people from around the game of baseball take questions from readers. Today, we’re excited to be hosting Tim Kissner, a former scout with over two decades of experience in MLB. Kissner has been a member of the Guardians, Phillies, Cubs, and Mariners organizations during his career, and signed current big leaguers Travis d’Arnaud and perhaps most notably, Julio Rodriguez, during his time in the game. Be sure to tune in to the live chat at 10am CT to ask any questions you might have for Kissner and his wealth of experience.
AL Notes: Twins, LeMahieu, Means
Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that right-handed prospect Jordan Balazovic will miss the start of Spring Training due to a broken jaw stemming from “an altercation away from the field.” A source with the team indicated to Hayes that Balazovic suffered the injury following a verbal altercation last Saturday, though Balazovic did not retaliate physically. Balazovic underwent surgery and is currently unavailable, though he could begin to play catch in seven to 10 days.
Balazovic came into the 2022 season viewed as a consensus top 100 prospect but struggled mightily with injuries and ineffectiveness last year. He was out until May 1 last year with a knee injury and then struggled to a 7.68 ERA in 72 2/3 minor league innings last year while pitching almost exclusively at the Triple-A level. Now it appears his 2023 is off to a rocky start of its own. Fortunately for Minnesota, the club has an impressive amount of starting pitching depth, with Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober all capable big league starters even with Chris Paddack set to spend most of the 2023 season on the injured list.
Elsewhere around the AL…
- Sticking with the Twins, center fielder Byron Buxton and first baseman Alex Kirilloff are both in places the club is comfortable with health-wise at this point in the spring, according to Hayes. Buxton is fully recovered from last year’s knee surgery and is playing without limitations, while Kirilloff, Falvey notes, is behind most other hitters as the organization plans on taking things slowly with him following his second wrist surgery, which Hayes notes was particularly intensive. Both figure to be part of the Twins Opening Day lineup if healthy, though the Twins acquired Michael A. Taylor earlier this offseason in part as insurance in center if Buxton continues to struggle to stay healthy, while rumors of the clubs interest in a veteran, right-handed complement to Kirilloff at first base have percolated throughout the offseason.
- Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu talked with reporters this morning, including Erik Boland of Newsday Sports and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. LeMahieu noted that he is at “100 percent” as he enters camp this spring, able to play with no limitations. In addition, LeMahieu says he’s excited to play in a utility role for the Yankees this season. With Anthony Rizzo at first base and Gleyber Torres at second, while Oswald Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa all expected to mix and match at shortstop and with Josh Donaldson at third base, at least until top prospect Anthony Volpe is ready to contribute, LeMahieu figures to pick up playing time at each of first base, second base, and third base this season. LeMahieu played second base almost exclusively prior to signing with the Yankees ahead of the 2019 season, but since then has moved around the infield more often, racking up 872 innings of work at first base and 1,171 innings at third base in a Yankees uniform.
- While Orioles left-hander John Means won’t factor into the Baltimore Opening Day rotation, he certainly seems to be on the right track to have an impact on the club at some point this season. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASN, that means will begin throwing off a half mound sometime in the coming week. Means has had the look of a solid mid-rotation starter since taking on a full-time role in 2019, pitching to a 3.72 ERA (124 ERA+) in 353 1/3 innings over that time while earning an All Star appearance and finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year voting for his 2019 season, where he posted a 3.60 ERA (131 ERA+) in 155 innings of work. Whenever Means is ready to return, he’ll be a welcome addition to a rotation that saw Kyle Gibson replace outgoing veteran righty Jordan Lyles and added lefty Cole Irvin in a trade with Oakland this offseason.
NL Central Notes: Helsley, Reds, Stephenson
Ahead of their victory over Ryan Helsley in an arbitration hearing, the Cardinals reportedly discussed a multi-year deal with the right-hander, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Woo notes that the sides were far apart, with the biggest issue being Helsley’s durability. As Woo notes, the Cardinals were concerned with Helsley’s rarely pitching on back-to-back days last year, while Helsley’s camp pointed out that he frequently went multiple innings during appearances as an explanation for that.
Helsley pitched on back-to-back days eight times in 2022, with eighteen of his 54 appearances lasting longer than 1.0 IP, though just nine of his appearances involved pitch counts greater than 25. Whatever one makes of his durability, however, Helsley certainly turned in a dominant 2022 season as he pitched to a sterling 1.25 ERA good for a 306 ERA+, meaning he was more than three times more effective than the league average pitcher in 2022. That performance was backed by a strong 2.34 FIP thanks to Helsley’s fantastic 39.3% strikeout rate and solid 8.4% walk rate. His K-BB% of 31 ranked fourth best in the majors last year among those with at least 60 innings of work.
For his part, Helsley told reporters that there were “no hard feelings” between himself and the organization, though he noted that the arbitration process was a tough one and that he and other players “wish it was a little different.”
Elsewhere in the NL Central…
- Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson will likely see more time off from his duties behind the plate this year, manager David Bell tells reporters, including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Bell plans for Stephenson to catch around 65 games this season, with about 80 games split between the DH slot and first base, allowing him to play around 140-50 games this season. Stephenson was limited to just 50 games and 183 plate appearances in 2022 due to injuries, but he hit well in those appearances, slashing .319/.372/.484, good for a wRC+ of 134. That overall line was likely helped by an inflated .409 BABIP, but as a career 119 wRC+ hitter, Stephenson still figures to be a key cog in the Reds lineup in 2023 as long as he can stay healthy. The Reds are no doubt hoping that less time behind the plate will help Stephenson stay on the field this year, while still allowing him to primarily be a catcher. The Reds expect to roster three catchers headed into Opening Day, with Curt Casali and Luke Maile both signed to big league deals.
- Sticking with the Reds, Bell tells reporters, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, that his hope is to have more than one left-handed reliever in his bullpen this year. Reiver Sanmartin is the only lefty currently expected to be part of Cincinnati’s Opening Day bullpen, coming off a difficult season where he posted a 6.32 ERA (71 ERA+) in 57 innings with the big league club. Two potential options to join Sanmartin in the bullpen this year are Daniel Norris and Alex Young, both of whom are in camp on non-roster invitations. Norris struggled in 2022, posting a 5.22 ERA (76 ERA+) in 58 2/3 innings split between the Cubs and the Tigers last year. Young, however, found success in 2022 pitching for the Guardians and Giants. The lefty posted a 2.36 ERA (175 ERA+) with a 2.89 FIP in 26 2/3 innings, almost all of which came in San Francisco.
MLB Creates Economic Reform Committee
One year after a tense period of CBA negotiations between MLB and it players that resulted in a lockout and a delay to the start of the 2022 season, it appears the league is already preparing for the next round of negotiations. According to Evan Drellich of The Athletic, the commissioner’s office has formed what they’re calling an economic reform committee chaired by Dodgers chairman Mark Walter. Drellich reports that Tigers chairman Chris Ilitch, Red Sox principle owner John Henry, and Rockies chairman Dick Monfort are among other members of the committee of franchise owners. The current CBA is set to expire following the 2026 season.
As Drellich notes, the impending bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, owner of the Bally Sports networks that hold the TV distribution rights of 14 MLB teams, appears to be a catalyst for the creation of this committee. Should that bankruptcy indeed come to pass, it would open the door for MLB to begin work on a league-wide streaming service free from blackouts. But according to Manfred, discussions of such a path have brought about concerns about disparity between the revenues of clubs:
“We have businesses that are literally not similar in terms of the overall revenue that they’re generating.” Manfred tells Drellich, “And to the extent that you could find a new distribution model that actually helped on that disparity side, that would be the daily double. So people are having conversations that haven’t been had in baseball, and it’s really been owners talking to owners, which is a good thing.”
As Drellich points out, the financials of most MLB clubs are not public and the new committee has no plans to produce a league-wide financial report, making it impossible to verify most claims related to revenue. But Drellich reports that concerns about revenue disparity have been exacerbated by the willingness of Mets owner Steve Cohen to put up record payrolls that dwarf those of other clubs. Per RosterResource, the Mets 2023 payroll for luxury tax purposes currently sits at almost $374 million, and that’s even after the club’s bid to land Carlos Correa on a 12-year, $315 million contract fell through due to concerns about Correa’s physical.
Drellich quotes an industry source as saying that “[Small market clubs] demand everything’s got to change… The whole idea is to basically come up with a system that gets to a salary cap.”
For his part, Manfred claims that the league has not “even begun to think about where we’re going to be the next go-around” of collective bargaining negotiations, but Drellich notes that other quotes from the commissioner indicate the proposal of a hard-cap could be on the horizon:
“When I talk about a more national product, sort of the thought there is that a more national product produces more centrally shared revenue… which, in turn, we hope, would reduce payroll disparities. At various times, we have talked and proposed, including in the last round, about direct payroll regulation, in addition to that, having a minimum payroll… We remain open to those sorts of solutions. Obviously, we’re a long way from the next round of bargaining, but there are ways to get at it.”
Even if the league has interest in pursuing a salary cap in future CBA negotiations, plenty of obstacles remain. The MLBPA, which Drellich reports declined to comment on the league’s new committee, has of course staunchly stood against a salary cap for decades. Drellich also notes that teams likely disagree as to where a hypothetical cap and floor would be set. Still, this committee serves as a reminder that, even with the lockout in the past and a new agreement in place that should keep labor peace for at least the next four seasons, more difficult negotiations remain on the horizon, both between owners themselves and between the league and its players.
Manny Machado Planning To Exercise Opt-Out Following 2023 Season
Padres superstar Manny Machado today confirmed to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post, that he plans on opting out of the remainder of his contract following the 2023 season. Machado signed his current 10-year, $300MM agreement with San Diego ahead of the 2019 season, and in opting out would leave five years, $150MM left on the table from his current contract.
This decision is no real surprise, as that $150MM figure appears to be one Machado should have no trouble beating on the open market next offseason, provided he remains healthy. After an offseason that saw top free agent Aaron Judge sign a $360MM deal that begins in his age 31 season, it seems like a reasonable bet that Machado, who would also be entering free agency ahead of his age 31 season, might become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career, though he obviously would not be playing through the entirety of his first one.
Machado’s certainly performed at a level to this point in his career that would warrant such a contract. The runner-up for the NL MVP award in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-5 MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves, and a Silver Slugger award under his belt. With a career 124 wRC+, strong defense at third base, and 46.4 fWAR already accrued in his career, Machado appears to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory, particularly considering the fact that his offensive game has taken a step up in recent seasons. Since the start of the 2018 season, Machado’s wRC+ is 133, and it jumps to 139 when examining the 2020-2022 seasons.
As Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated notes, Machado is looking to sign for double-digit years, a mark Judge barely missed with his nine-year pact this offseason but shortstops Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts both managed to eclipse. This appears to be a reasonable ask, particularly given that Machado seems likely to be the consensus top free agent in the 2023-24 free agent class after two-way unicorn Shohei Ohtani. A 10-year deal for Machado would take him through his age-40 campaign, an age teams seem to be increasingly willing to sign players through this offseason than in years past.
The Padres, themselves, are at the forefront of this movement toward signing players to longer deals. They signed both Bogaerts and Yu Darvish to deals that will take them beyond their 40th birthdays this offseason, and made similar offers to both Turner and Judge as well. Despite Machado’s plans to opt-out following the 2023 campaign, there appears to be interest in an extension, with the Padres reportedly set to pursue a new deal with Machado this spring, it’s possible that San Diego’s comfort in signing players through their age-40 seasons would give them a leg up in negotiations.
On the other hand, the Padres are in a somewhat difficult payroll situation. They’re a lock to pay into the luxury tax in 2023, already have two long-term megadeals on the books in Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr., and on top of all that, Juan Soto‘s free agency is looming following the 2024 season. It seems to be a reasonable question as to whether or not they can maintain their current payroll levels at all, much less add to them as they would need to in order to retain Machado and Soto.