The Opener: Pham, Lefty Relief Market, Righty Bats
With a little over two months until Opening Day, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today around the baseball world:
1. Pham/Mets deal to be made official
Shortly after reports of Tommy Pham‘s one-year, $6MM agreement with the Mets came in yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the signing will be made official today. The Mets currently have a full 40-man roster, so in order to make Pham’s deal official, a corresponding move will be required. The acquisition of Pham likely rounds out a bench that already sports Luis Guillorme, Darin Ruf, and Tomas Nido, likely pushing center fielder Khalil Lee down to Triple-A unless an additional move such as a trade of Ruf clears space. Such a move isn’t strictly necessary, however, because while there are no center fielders on New York’s bench, both Starling Marte and Mark Canha have center field experience despite starting in the corner spots in deference to Brandon Nimmo.
2. Is the lefty relief market about to heat up?
A fresh batch of rumors made the rounds yesterday concerning the market for left-handed relievers. Just a day after the Marlins were reported to have interest in departing Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman, the Royals and Padres were added to the list of teams interested in the lefty fireballer’s services. Chapman, 35 in February, is looking to bounce back from a career-worst 4.46 ERA (88 ERA+) in 2022. Last year’s was his first below-average ERA in a career that has only seen him post a mark above 3.50 one other time, when he posted a 3.60 ERA for the Reds back in 2011.
Andrew Chafin, the top remaining reliever on the free agent market follow two excellent seasons with the Cubs, A’s, and Tigers, is reportedly seeing his market begin to heat up, with the Mets among seven teams known to be interested in his services. Earlier in the week, both Chafin and Matt Moore were connected to the Cubs, who appear focused on adding another bullpen arm ahead of Spring Training, with a preference for a lefty. Zack Britton, Will Smith, and Brad Hand are among the most recognizable lefties also still available in free agency.
3. Will the run on right-handed outfield bats continue?
Just as the stage could be set for a run on left-handed relievers, we’ve seen quite a few veteran right-handed bats come off the board this week. Andrew McCutchen‘s return to the Pirates kicked things off, and it’s been followed by Adam Duvall agreeing with the Red Sox, Brian Anderson heading to Milwaukee, Tommy Pham landing with the Mets and Kevin Pillar inking a minor league deal with the Braves. Options in this regard are dwindling, but switch-hitters Jurickson Profar and Robbie Grossman remain unsigned, as do pure righties Chad Pinder, Albert Almora and Stephen Piscotty. As this subsection of the market begins to move, those names could find increased interest. Meanwhile, the trade market offers names like Michael A. Taylor (despite a lofty asking price) and Ramon Laureano (who may not be moved this offseason).
Twins Sign Chris Paddack To Extension
On Wednesday evening, the Twins announced a three-year contract with right-hander Chris Paddack. The deal covers his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility and buys out what would’ve been his first free agent season in 2025. Paddack reportedly receives a $2.5MM salary for the coming season. He’ll be guaranteed $2.525MM in 2024 and $7.5MM during the ’25 campaign. The Boras Corporation client would earn an additional $500K for reaching both 140 and 150 innings in 2025, with another $750K available at the 160 and 170-inning thresholds.
Paddack, who turned 27 earlier this month, was acquired by the Twins last April in a deal with the Padres that also saw Taylor Rogers and Emilio Pagan change uniforms. Unfortunately for the Twins, Paddack managed just 22 1/3 innings with the club before he landed on the injured list with an elbow issue. Paddack later underwent Tommy John surgery in May, with August 2023 as the reported target for his return to big league play.
Paddack was an instant success in his 2019 debut season with the Padres, posting a 3.33 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.95 FIP across 26 starts and racked up 153 strikeouts in just 140 2/3 innings of work. The shortened 2020 season saw him struggle mightily, however, as his ERA ballooned to 4.73 (89 ERA+) and his FIP similarly rose to 5.02 across 59 innings. One factor in this was his ghastly HR/FB rate of 25.0%, nearly double his 14.6% rate from 2019.
His home run rate returned to normal in 2021, but Paddack continued to struggle. In 108 1/3 innings in 2021, Paddack posted an ERA of 5.07 (77 ERA+), the worst of his career. Paddack’s 3.72 FIP in 2021 indicates that there may have been some bad luck built into those results, but there was reason for concern nonetheless: his strikeout rate had plummeted. After striking out 9.8 batters per 9 in his debut 2019 season, that rate dipped to 8.8 in 2020 and then dipped again in 2021, all the way down to 8.2, good for a strikeout rate in just the 35th percentile that year.
Of course, it should be noted that Paddack struggled with injuries throughout the 2021 season, which certainly could have impacted his performance. Paddack spent over two months on the injured list in 2021 across three separate IL stints, suggesting he may not have been fully healthy even when he was on the mound that season. Between his youth and injury history, there’s reason to believe Paddack could return to a form more in line with his 2019 debut once he’s fully healthy, an outcome the Twins are betting on with this deal.
In extending Paddack, the Twins provide the right-hander with some security during his rehab process and return to the pitcher’s mound, while buying themselves an extra year of team control for a pitcher with substantial upside. Should Paddack return to the mound late in the season, he will join a somewhat full rotation mix that currently includes Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober. With that being said, Gray, Mahle, and Maeda are all set to hit the free agent market following the 2023, leaving Paddack as a likely key cog in Minnesota’s 2024 rotation.
With four years of service time, Paddack was set to be eligible for arbitration both this offseason and next, with MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz having projected him for $2.4MM during this round of arbitration. With this deal, Paddack forgoes a potential raise through the arbitration process next year in addition to a year of free agency, though he is still set hit the market at age 30 following the 2025 campaign. A cost-controlled starter like Paddack is a huge boon to Minnesota’s payroll flexibility going forward- while their projected payroll for the 2024 season is just $65MM per RosterResource (prior to the inclusion of arb-eligible players on the roster), the Twins are, as previously mentioned, set to lose three members of their rotation this offseason, potentially in addition to two starting outfielders in Joey Gallo and Max Kepler. While youngsters like Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach could step up in the outfield, it seems almost certain that the Twins will have to supplement their core in free agency next year. Cost certainty with Paddack could help them be more aggressive in making those additions and maximizing the early years of Carlos Correa‘s new six-year deal with the club.
Matt Braun of Twins Daily was first to report the Twins and Paddack had agreed to a three-year contract. Dan Hayes of the Athletic was first with the $12.5MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the salary breakdown. The Associated Press was first with the specifics of the incentives.
The Opener: Marlins, Signings, MLBTR Chat
Following a busy morning on the hot stove, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Are the Marlins staying active in the free agent market?
The Marlins have been long expected to be more active on the trade market — where they’ve already dealt shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers and are currently marketing a group of young, controllable starters to rival clubs — than in free agency. That said, even as Miami discusses trades with the Twins and Cardinals (among many other suitors), they might be more active on the open market than otherwise expected. They’ve already signed right-hander Johnny Cueto to a one-year, $8.5MM deal, and reports yesterday indicated that the club has interest in first baseman Yuli Gurriel and closer Aroldis Chapman.
The Marlins enjoy a great deal of flexibility as to which MLB-ready players to target in their dealings with other clubs, with plenty of space to upgrade at virtually every position outside of the starting rotation. While this flexibility allows them to be adaptable in trade discussions, focusing more on the quality of the talent they bring in rather where they talent can contribute, it also means that it’s unlikely they’ll be able to fill every hole on a roster that lost 93 games last season.
2. Recent signings yet to be made official
In Monday’s Opener, we discussed Miami’s reported deal with Johnny Cueto and San Diego’s reported deal with Nelson Cruz, which both had yet to be made official. Those deals have still not been made official, and they are joined in limbo by four right-handed corner bats: Andrew McCutchen, Trey Mancini, Brian Anderson, and Adam Duvall. McCutchen’s $5MM agreement with the Pirates and Mancini’s two-year, $14MM pact with the Cubs were reported as far back as last weekend, so they’re likelier to be made official more quickly than Anderson’s deal with the Brewers or Duvall’s signing with the Red Sox, both of which were reported in just the past twelve hours. Pittsburgh, Chicago, Milwaukee and Boston all join Miami and San Diego in having full 40-man rosters, meaning corresponding moves will be needed for each signing.
3. MLBTR Chat Today
Yesterday, MLBTR’s Steve Adams fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If you still have unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting another chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins.
The Opener: DFAs, Brewers, MLBTR Chat
As we continue to close in on Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. DFA’d players who will have their situations resolved today
Four players were designated for assignment seven days ago, and a conclusion to those four DFAs is due today. Julian Merryweather and Junior Fernandez of the Blue Jays, Andres Machado of the Nationals, and Oliver Ortega of the Twins are all still awaiting resolution on their status. None of the four have enough service time or the prior outright assignment needed to reject an outright to the minors, so if of them clear waivers, they’ll likely remain with their organizations. Fernandez and Ortega have both been claimed already this offseason, making their situations ones to watch, as they easily could simply be claimed once again. Merryweather averages better than 97 mph on his heater and has above-average spin on the pitch. Machado has posted a combined 3.41 ERA in 95 innings with the Nats over the past two seasons, albeit with strikeout and walk rates that are noticeably worse than the league average.
2. Brewers fan event tomorrow
For fans in the Milwaukee area, the Brewers are hosting a free fan event tomorrow evening called “Hot Stove & Cold Brews.” The event will feature a meet-and-greet with Brewers players Willy Adames, Freddy Peralta, Aaron Ashby, Garrett Mitchell, Owen Miller, and Sal Frelick. There will be voting opportunities with the players as well. Manager Craig Counsell and general manager Matt Arnold will also be in attendance for a Q&A session after an offseason that has seen the Brewers acquire just one free agent of significance (Wade Miley) but pull off significant trades for players such as William Contreras and Jesse Winker.
3. MLBTR Chat today
MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be taking questions from readers today when he hosts a live chat at 1pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and the same link will take you to the chat when it begins later today if you would like to participate live.
The Opener: Signings, Cubs, FA Bats
With less than a month until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Reported signings that could be made official
In last Monday’s Opener, we discussed four reported signings that had not yet been made official: Corey Kluber with the Red Sox, Wade Miley with the Brewers, Zach Davies with the Diamondbacks, and Eric Hosmer with the Cubs. Each of those deals were made official over the course of the last week. Today, there are two deals that stick out as likely to be made official in the coming days: the one-year, $8.5MM agreement between Johnny Cueto and the Marlins, and the one-year, $1MM deal Nelson Cruz has with the Padres. Both the Miami and San Diego have full 40-man rosters, which means each club will have to make a corresponding move to make their deal official.
2. What’s next for the Cubs after the Mancini deal?
The Cubs bolstered their lineup this weekend by landing first baseman Trey Mancini on a two-year deal with an opt-out after 2023. With Mancini signed, the position player corps on the North Side appears to be relatively set, barring a trade that clears space or perhaps the acquisition of a bench outfielder. That doesn’t mean the Cubs are done, however. While owner Tom Ricketts recently talked about being “strategic” about when to cross the luxury tax threshold, the club still has just under $12MM to work with before paying into the tax, per RosterResource. After both Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ avoided arbitration last week, it’s possible that even if the Cubs decide to pursue an extension with either player this offseason, any agreement reached wouldn’t impact this season’s luxury tax figure, as is the case with Boston’s extension of Rafael Devers.
One place where the Cubs seem primed to make a move that would impact the 2023 luxury tax line is the bullpen. Chicago is rumored to be interested in Matt Moore and Andrew Chafin, the two top lefty relievers remaining on the market. While the Cubs have done well in recent seasons turning reclamation relievers into successes, a more established arm would certainly make sense in a bullpen that largely lacks a player like that outside of Brad Boxberger. If Moore and Chafin are out of Chicago’s price range, there are still other interesting lefties available to take pressure off Brandon Hughes in 2023: Zack Britton, Brad Hand, and Will Smith are all still available and could bring closing experience to a projected Cubs bullpen without much of it.
3. Which hitters are still available on the free agent market?
The free agent market for position players continued to thin last week, as each of Cruz, Mancini, and Andrew McCutchen signed on with a club for the 2023 season. That said, there’s still some interesting names out there for clubs looking to bolster the lineup in the final weeks before Spring Training. Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus, both of whom have received interest from the Red Sox recently, join Luke Voit as perhaps the three best position players who have yet to sign on with a club. Each of those players seems capable of holding down an everyday role in 2023. In the tier below them, there’s a number of complementary options available, such as David Peralta and Tyler Naquin. Another option would be taking a flier on a player who struggled in 2023 but has had success in the past, such as Brian Anderson or Miguel Sano.
Cubs, Ian Happ Avoid Arbitration
The Cubs and outfielder Ian Happ came to an agreement on a $10.85MM salary for the 2023 season in order to avoid arbitration, per The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.
Happ, 28, has spent his entire professional career as a member of the Cubs organization. He delivered a strong debut campaign in the 2017 season, posting a .253/.328/.514 slash line, good for a 114 wRC+ and some down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes while splitting time between second base and center field. The following season, Happ split time between all three outfield spots as well as third base but took a step back offensively, posting a slash line of just .233/.353/.408 (106 wRC+) in 142 games with a worrisome 36.1% strikeout rate.
Happ spent much of the 2019 season at Triple-A Iowa working on his game, and appeared to have made improvements by the time he came up in the second half: in 58 games that season, he slashed .264/.333/.564 (126 wRC+) while cutting his strikeout rate all the way down to 25.0%. Happ’s improved game carried into the shortened 2020 campaign, where he looked like a potential MVP candidate early in the season before an injury an early September caused him to slump down the stretch. Still, he managed a 132 wRC+ on the year after his hot start to the shortened season. That slump continued throughout the first half of the 2021 season as Happ slashed .193/.296/.330 in the first half, though a strong second half allowed him to push his overall season numbers back above league average.
After a difficult year in 2021, however, Happ was able to post the best full season of his career in 2022, and looked like a completely different hitter while doing it. He posted a career high in doubles, a career low strikeout rate, earned a gold glove after settling into a full-time role in left field rather than bouncing around the diamond as he had in the past, and even managed to correct his heavy platoon split from previous years, becoming a largely split neutral player. All this led to his first career All Star appearance in 2022 and allowed him to earn over $10MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, even narrowly beating out the $10.6MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz.
While Happ is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season, rumblings of an extension have permeated throughout the offseason, with both Happ and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer reportedly looking to start any potential extension talks before Spring Training, according to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.
Luis Perdomo Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines
Righty reliever Luis Perdomo has signed with the Chiba Lotte Marines to play the 2023 season in Japan, per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. The deal reportedly comes with a $1.3MM guarantee and incentives that could boost the total to $1.8MM. Perdomo is a client of CAA Sports.
Perdomo pitched for the Brewers in 2022, posting a 3.80 ERA (105 ERA+) and 4.80 FIP across 23 2/3 innings in 14 appearances. While his top-level results were slightly above average, he posted a career-low strikeout rate in 2022, which implies there may have been some good luck baked into his ERA when combined with his significantly higher FIP. The Brewers non-tendered him earlier this offseason.
Prior to joining the Brewers during the 2020-21 offseason on a minor league contract, Perdomo had been on the Padres for parts of five seasons. He struggled mightily in a swing role from 2016-2018, posting a 5.40 ERA (75 ERA+) and 4.56 FIP in 355 innings across those three seasons. The most successful season of his big league career came in 2019, when he posted an ERA of 4.00 (105 ERA+) and a FIP of 3.60 across 72 innings of mostly relief work. He struggled again in the shortened 2020 season, however, with ERA and FIP marks both well above 5.00.
At just 29 years old, Perdomo now is set to follow in the footsteps of many other fringe major leaguers and attempt to establish himself in Japan before attempting to secure another state-side contract.
Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Avoid Arbitration
The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are in agreement on a $14.5MM deal for the 2023 season to avoid arbitration, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.
Guerrero Jr., who has spent his entire career as a member of the Blue Jays organization, was the universally-recognized top prospect in baseball ahead of his major league debut in 2019. While his debut season was solid for a rookie, it failed to meet those lofty expectations as he slashed .271/.339/.433 (106 wRC+) across 123 games in the big leagues. The shortened 2020 season was more of the same for Guerrero Jr. as he posted a wRC+ of 110 while largely repeating his 2019 stats, with slight improvements to his ISO and strikeout rate being largely cancelled out by a drop in his BABIP.
Guerrero Jr. fulfilled the promise of his top prospect status and then some in 2021, however. In 161 games, Guerrero Jr. slashed a phenomenal .311/.401/.601, good for a whopping 166 wRC+ that led the slugger not only to his first All Star appearance, but a second place finish in MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. Following that banner season, Guerrero Jr. came back down to earth somewhat in 2022, though he was still far better than he had been in the first two seasons of his career. A slash line of .274/.339/.480 was good for a wRC+ of 132, a second All Star appearance, and some down-ballot MVP votes.
The $14.5MM agreement ties the record set by Pete Alonso earlier today for highest salary among arbitration-eligible first basemen. Guerrero will again be eligible for arbitration both next offseason and ahead of the 2025 campaign, and is set to become a free agent during the 2025-26 offseason. It’s possible Toronto will lock Guerrero Jr. up before then, however, seeing as the slugger publicly stated that he was open to a long-term extension earlier this offseason. Today’s agreement does not preclude a longer deal later on this offseason, though there haven’t been many rumblings of such an agreement being in the works to this point.
Mets, Pete Alonso Avoid Arbitration
The Mets and first baseman Pete Alonso have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $14.5MM deal for the 2023, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Alonso, 28, had a stellar year in 2022, slashing .271/.352/.518 and hitting 40 home runs in a campaign that saw him lead the NL in RBI while tying Aaron Judge for the MLB lead. Alonso’s 143 wRC+ was 12th-best among all major league hitters this season.
Alonso has been a member of the Mets organization for his entire career to this point, exploded onto the major league scene in 2019, slugging a league-leading 53 home runs during a season that saw him win Rookie of the Year and place 7th in NL MVP voting. While he hasn’t returned to the heights of his rookie season to this point in his career, he’s been remarkable nonetheless thanks to his consistency.
His wRC+ in 2022 nearly matched that of his 2019 debut season (144 wRC+), and both seasons are only slightly above his career his career mark of 138, with his only season below a 130 wRC+ being the shortened 2020 campaign. As the best offensive performer on a 101-win Mets team in 2022, Alonso figures to once again be a key player on a team with World Series aspirations headed into the 2023 season.
The $14.5MM agreement, despite being the largest agreement ever for a first baseman in arbitration (though it was promptly matched by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), actually comes in significantly below his $15.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz. Alonso will be eligible for arbitration once more in 2024, and is set to become a free agent during the 2024-2025 offseason.
Austin Wynns Accepts Outright Assignment With The Giants
Giants catcher Austin Wynns has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Sacramento, according to Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi had previously implied Wynns went through waivers unclaimed after being designated for assignment last week to make room for Michael Conforto on the 40-man roster, and expressed hope that Wynns would stay in the organization to compete for the backup catcher job in Spring Training.
Wynns arrived in San Francisco after being acquired from the Phillies in early June in exchange for left-hander Michael Plessmeyer and cash, and immediately took a role on the big league club following Joey Bart‘s demotion to Triple-A. Wynns went on to appear in 65 games for the Giants in 2022, slashing a decent .241/.315/.356 (93 wRC+) across 177 plate appearances in that time. While those results are 7% below those of an average major-league hitter, that’s still more than enough to be an acceptable catching option at the big league level; that same 93 wRC+ ranked 23rd among all catchers last year (min. 170 PA).
While his offensive numbers last year cast him as a serviceable backstop in the big leagues, Wynns is not without potential warts. Prior to the 2022 season, he had played parts of three seasons with the Orioles, and slashed just .216/.255/.326 (55 wRC+) in that time. Combined with an wOBA (.298) in 2022 that outstripped his xwOBA (.267) by a considerable amount, and it’s easy to wonder how sustainable his step forward offensively last year was. Additionally, Wynns celebrated his 32nd birthday last month, an age by which many catchers begin to suffer from decline due to the demands of their position.
Still, there’s more than enough positives for the Giants to give him a shot at earning the backup job behind Bart in 2023. Catcher of the future Patrick Bailey hit well in High-A last year, but seems unlikely to impact the big leagues until 2024, leaving Rule 5 draftee Blake Sabol as the main competition for Wynns this spring, assuming the Giants don’t add a veteran like Jorge Alfaro on a minor-league deal at some point down the line.