Author: Nick Deeds

With the first significant date on the 2023 MLB calendar upon us, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Today is the deadline for submitting arbitration figures.

Today is the deadline day for both clubs and players to submit figures to MLB for salary arbitration. While players and their clubs can still avoid arbitration after today, many teams have adopted a “file-and-trial” policy in recent years, meaning they do not negotiate further on one-year arb level deals after today’s deadline. It’s likely there will be heaps of deals agreed to throughout the day today, and while these deals likely won’t wildly change any club’s payroll situation, the cost certainty provided could make it easier for teams to work out deals on the trade market going forward. As has been the case for more than a decade, MLBTR published Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections earlier this offseason.

2. International Free Agency To Open

The 2023 signing period for international free agency is set to begin on Sunday, January 15th. This period, which has been moved to January in recent seasons after years of July signing periods, gives all 30 clubs the opportunity to inject their farm systems with fresh talent. While these players are all almost assuredly several years away from impacting the major leagues, many of the biggest superstars of today’s game were acquired by their clubs through the IFA signing process. Most top prospects in a given IFA class likely unofficially made handshake agreements with clubs long before the official opening of their IFA signing period, so most of these top prospects already have publicly available expected landing spots. MLB and the MLBPA tried to come to an agreement on an international draft this summer following CBA negotiations but were unable to do so, leaving the current system in place for the foreseeable future.

3. Cubs Convention is returning this weekend.

Cubs Convention starts tonight, marking its return after two years of pandemic- and lockout-related absence. Perhaps most interestingly, the Ricketts family (who own the team) is set to make an appearance and interact with fans tomorrow. Tom Ricketts drew plenty of flak for canceling his annual Cubs Convention Q&A with fans in 2019 amid the what was then the team’s quietest offseason in years. He was booed in 2020 when citing the luxury tax as a reason for the team’s lack of spending. Since then, Cubs fans have seen the departure of their entire 2016 World Series core (aside from Kyle Hendricks), and the team has suffered back-to-back losing seasons. The signing of Dansby Swanson could perhaps bring about some good will this time around, but he’ll surely still face some tough questions and perhaps produce some notable quotes on the team’s outlook moving forward.

With just about a month left before Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today as the offseason enters its final stretch:

1. What does Correa’s return mean for the rest of Minnesota’s lineup?

In signing Carlos Correa to a six-year, $200MM deal, the Twins have successfully retained their top offseason target and transformed their lineup. They’ve also created something of a roster crunch. Correa, Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, and Jose Miranda will get regular infield work, with versatile infielder Kyle Farmer and infielder/outfielder Nick Gordon serving as utility options. That entire group is under team control through at least the 2024 season, and by then, Royce Lewis will likely have returned from injury while prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, both already at Double-A, could be knocking on the door of the big leagues.

It’s a similar look in the outfield, where Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo and Max Kepler are currently penciled in as the starters, with Gordon, Gilberto Celestino, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner as possible alternatives. With their current glut of position players, it would make sense if the Twins more explored offers on the trade market. Kepler, in particular, has been viewed as a trade candidate — even more so in the wake of Minnesota’s signing of Gallo.

2. Does the Rojas swap portend more moves?

Longtime Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas was traded last night to the Dodgers in exchange for Jacob Amaya, filling a hole in L.A.’s roster left by Trea Turner‘s departure. Could this deal spur both clubs into more action? For the Dodgers, Rojas’ $5MM salary puts the club on track to pay into the luxury tax, when they had previously seemed to be trying to avoid. Could Los Angeles look to shed salary through trade? Or is it possible that the club gives up on staying under the luxury tax and participates more aggressively in the trade market going forward to improve the club in 2023?

Meanwhile, Miami gave themselves a lot more flexibility by moving Rojas. Amaya could be a serviceable infielder for them in 2023 (perhaps in a platoon with Joey Wendle) alongside Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jean Segura. On the other hand, without surefire starters at every infield position anymore, it’s possible that this deal allows the club to widen their scope when looking for partners in a trade for one of their starting pitchers. Previously, it seemed reasonable to assume they would focus on improving the outfield, but without Rojas, but perhaps there’s some extra consideration now given to MLB-ready infielders.

3. O’Hearn DFA Conclusion Coming

Last week, the Orioles designated first baseman Ryan O’Hearn for assignment. The outcome of that DFA is due today. O’Hearn’s four years of service time surpasses the minimum three years required to reject an outright assignment, although rejecting an outright would mean forgoing the $1.4MM deal he agreed to earlier in the offseason. O’Hearn debuted in 2018, slashing .262/.353/.597 (153 wRC+) in 170 plate appearances with the Royals that season, but he’s struggled to a .211/.282/.351 (68 wRC+) slash in 901 MLB plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season. The O’s designated O’Hearn just days after acquiring him in a trade — seemingly part of their ongoing effort to stash some lefty-swinging first base depth in Triple-A.

With the biggest story of the offseason finally seemingly having reached a conclusion, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Devers, Correa deals expected to be announced today.

Over the past week, both Rafael Devers and, more surprisingly, Carlos Correa have signed long-term deals with the clubs they played for in 2022. Devers signed a 10-year, $313.5MM extension that will begin with the 2024 campaign, lessening the 2023 burden on the Red Sox for luxury tax purposes. Boston is planning a press conference for 11am EST to announce the deal. Correa, meanwhile, has landed with  the Twins on a six-year, $200MM deal that could escalate to a ten-year, $270MM through a series of four vesting options. Correa’s pact to return to the Twins is his third agreement of the offseason after a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants and a 12-year, $315MM deal with the Mets both fell apart after the teams conducted their physical of Correa. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Twins had no such issues with Correa’s physical and expect to announce the deal with him sometime today.

2. Where does the SP market stand with Cueto off the board?

Veteran starting pitcher Johnny Cueto landed in Miami yesterday on a one-year, $8.5MM guarantee. The signing fortifies an already deep Marlins rotation and further strengthens their position on the trade market, both by allowing them to more freely deal cost-controlled pitching from their rotation and by taking arguably the top remaining starter out of free agency and limiting the options of clubs still looking to add pitching. So, what options do clubs looking to add a free agent starter have still available now that Cueto’s off the board? The pickings are slim, with just two unsigned pitchers who tossed at least 100 innings with an ERA below 4.50 in 2022: Zack Greinke, who would be pitching at age 39 in 2023, and Michael Wacha, whose solid 2022 showing marked a nice rebound from a 5.05 ERA (81 ERA+) and 5.11 FIP across 285 1/3 innings from 2019-2021. Outside of those two aforementioned righties, all that remains on the free agent market are fliers who were injured in 2022, like Danny Duffy and Michael Pineda, or bounce-back candidates like Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. Pitching-hungry teams will need to look to the trade market, where the Marlins, Brewers, Mariners and Mets — among others — could have options of varying quality available.

3. MLBTR chat today

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Steve Adams fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If you still have unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting another chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins.

After a busy morning on the free agent market, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Belt, Blue Jays deal to be made official.

Susan Sussler of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that longtime Giant Brandon Belt, who landed in Toronto last night on a one-year deal, will be officially announced by the Blue Jays today. Because the Blue Jays have a full 40-man roster, the club will need to announce a corresponding move to clear space for the slugger. Belt, who will play next season at age 35, has passed his physical and is good to go for the 2023 season after undergoing knee surgery in September, per Slusser. The addition of Belt should help the Blue Jays in their quest to balance their lineup, which was heavily right-handed in 2022. He joins Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho as lefty bats the club has added to their position player mix this offseason.

2. Is a Correa conclusion on the horizon?

Last night brought an update on Carlos Correa‘s free agent saga, as reports began to swirl that talks between Correa and the Twins are accelerating. Correa initially agreed to a deal with the Giants last month before a snag in negotiations caused by Correa’s physical caused the shortstop’s camp to pivot to a new deal with the Mets to play third base. The Mets, too, flagged an old injury in Correa’s physical as cause for concern, and the sides have spent the past few weeks trying to finalize the agreement. Whether Correa ultimately ends up in New York, Minnesota, or somewhere else entirely, it seems likely that Correa’s rollercoaster free agency could be finally approaching its conclusion.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be taking questions from readers today when he hosts a live chat at 1pm CT. You can submit a question in advance, and the same link will take you to the chat when it begins later today if you would like to participate live.

With five weeks left until Spring Training begins, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today throughout the baseball world:

1. Reported signings that could be made official

In one of last week’s Openers, we discussed three signings that could be made official in the coming days: Corey Kluber with the Red Sox, Evan Longoria with the Diamondbacks, and Wade Miley with the Brewers. Only Longoria’s signing has been made official to this point, with right-hander Edwin Uceta getting DFA’d in the corresponding move. An official announcement and corresponding move should still be in the works for both Kluber and Miley. In addition, two other deals from last week that could be made official in the coming days are the one-year, $5MM deal between Arizona and Zach Davies and the agreement between the Cubs and Eric Hosmer. Both Arizona and Chicago will need to make a corresponding move to clear 40-man roster space in order to add Davies and Hosmer, respectively.

2. What’s next for the Tigers?

This weekend’s five-player deal that sent Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens to Philadelphia in exchange for Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, and Donny Sands is the biggest move of Detroit’s offseason to this point. The Tigers addressed the most significant holes on their roster with this deal, as Maton can take the lion’s share of starts a third base, filling a hole left by the non-tender of Jeimer Candelario earlier this offseason. Vierling, meanwhile, serves as a much-needed righty complement to Detroit’s all-lefty outfield unit of Akil Baddoo, Riley Greene, Austin Meadows, and Kerry Carpenter. Of that group, only Greene posted productive numbers against southpaws (.303/.353/.394, 116 wRC+). So, what’s next for the Tigers? They certainly could make room for another bat, or even a rotation arm, if a deal arises that interests them.

The most pressing issue at this point, however, seems to be restocking the bullpen. Detroit’s relief corps has lost both Soto and Joe Jimenez to sell-side trades this offseason while also losing Wily Peralta and Andrew Chafin to free agency. That’s 210 1/3 innings of quality relief work in 2022 that won’t be returning in 2023, leaving the bullpen as the clearest place left where president of baseball operations Scott Harris can add to the club.

3. Will the Mariners keep adding?

With the addition of outfielder AJ Pollock on a one-year, $7MM deal, the Mariners have a platoon partner for former top prospect Jarred Kelenic if he succeeds in the majors in 2023 or some insurance in the outfield if Kelenic continues to struggle. Even with that pair in left, Julio Rodriguez in center and Teoscar Hernandez in right, there’s still room for another outfield-capable bat. Acquiring another outfielder would allow Hernandez to spend more time at designated hitter and ideally give manager Scott Servais another above-average bat to rotate through the outfield and DH mix. As it stands, the Mariners’ DH spot would likely be used for Hernandez and the occasional rest day for other regulars, which would allow names like Cooper Hummel, Dylan Moore and Sam Haggerty to get into the lineup elsewhere.

With less than six weeks left until pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today in the baseball world:

1. Correa Talking To Other Clubs Again

For a few weeks now, Carlos Correa and the Mets have been trying to work the kinks out of their 12-year, $315MM agreement due to issues with the same old injury that gave the Giants pause in their 13-year, $350MM agreement with the All-Star. It appears those negotiations are no longer entirely exclusive, as Correa’s camp has resumed discussions with at least one team besides the Mets due to the difficulties hammering out a final agreement in New York. Correa’s free agency has been one of the biggest and strangest stories of the offseason, and that’s sure to remain the case until it eventually reaches a proper conclusion.

2. What does the added rotation depth in Milwaukee mean for Houser?

The Brewers fortified their rotation this week by signing Wade Miley and added another depth arm with their waiver claim of Bryse Wilson, who’s out of minor league options (and thus will need to be on the roster or else again designated for assignment). With Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta already locked into starting roles for the club, it seems likely that Miley will compete with Eric Lauer and Aaron Ashby for the final two spots in the rotation, with the third lefty likely joining the bullpen alongside Wilson. Adrian Houser already seemed like a possible trade candidate for Milwaukee considering the number of clubs looking for starting pitching in a thin market, but with even more depth in Milwaukee now, it’s possible that a trade has become even likelier. Houser, who’s controllable for two more seasons and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a reasonable $3.6MM through arbitration in 2023, could make sense for a variety of teams looking to add depth to their rotation, including the Angels, Orioles, and Padres.

3. La Stella, Moustakas To Join Free Agent Market

Just as the free agent infield market was thinning out, the Reds and Giants each added another player to the mix, as Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas and San Francisco did the same with Tommy La Stella. The two players have a lot of similarities as they enter the market. Both are lefty-swinging infielders entering their mid-thirties who are capable of playing first, second, and third base. Both have struggled with injuries and under-performance in recent years but have had success as recently as the shortened 2020 season. Perhaps most importantly, both can be had for just the major league minimum in 2023, with their former club still on the hook for the remainder of their contracts.

Either player would be a useful addition to any club if they can rediscover their old form, and there should be teams with a need in the infield who’ll be willing to give them a chance, given the minimal commitment necessary to do so. The Orioles stand out as a particularly interesting match for either Moustakas or La Stella because they recently pursued a lefty infielder in a similar contractual situation: first baseman Eric Hosmer, who ultimately landed with the Cubs. Speculatively speaking, the White Sox, Tigers, Rays, and Cubs are among the other teams who could make sense for this veteran duo.

As the offseason continues to move along, here are three things to keep and eye on throughout the day today:

1. Reported signings that could be made official.

Free agent deals are often reported before they’re officially complete and announced by the team. Delays in making things official are often due to the player’s physical not being done yet, or perhaps simply because the team wants to delay having to make a corresponding 40-man roster move. The recent holiday season could also play a role in delaying the physicals on such agreements. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that Wade Miley‘s one-year, $4.5MM deal with the Brewers, agreed upon yesterday, could have a short turnaround and become official as soon as today. Additionally, deals that still haven’t been made officially from last week, such as Arizona’s one-year, $4MM agreement with Evan Longoria and the one-year, $10MM deal between the Red Sox and Corey Kluber, could also be made official soon. All three organizations have full 40-man rosters, so they’ll need to make a corresponding move to open up space for their incoming free agent.

2. Could Cueto be nearing a decision?

According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Padres and Marlins are “vying” for the services of veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto, with the Reds also interested in acquiring the 36-year-old. Cueto stands as one of the top free-agent pitchers remaining on the market following a solid season with the White Sox where he posted a 3.35 ERA (18% better than league average by ERA+) and a 3.79 FIP. Both the Marlins and Padres have been previously mentioned as interested in adding Cueto to their rotation; this being said, it’s somewhat notable that Rosenthal seems to indicate that the Padres and the Marlins are the frontrunners at this point ahead of Cincinnati, with whom Cueto spent the first seven and a half years of his career.

3. Two Cubs players are currently in DFA limbo.

Yesterday, the Cubs sent recently reliever Erich Uelmen, who had recently been designated for assignment, to the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations. While this move brings Uelmen’s DFA to a conclusion, Chicago still has two players in DFA limbo, with the results of their DFA unannounced: first baseman Alfonso Rivas and catcher P.J. Higgins. Rivas, who was designated to make room for a waiver claim of Anthony Kay, cannot reject an outright assignment to Triple-A, meaning he will likely stay in the Cubs organization if he goes unclaimed on waivers. Higgins, meanwhile, does have the option of rejecting an outright assignment, by virtue of the fact that he’s been outrighted previously in his career. He’ll have control of his own future should he go unclaimed on waivers following his DFA, which made room for the club’s signing of Tucker Barnhart.

As the baseball world starts to wake back up, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day:

1. 1B Market Update

There was some movement on the first base market yesterday, as Dominic Smith landed with the Nationals and Eric Hosmer appears to be headed to the Cubs. While many corners of the free agent market are running low on both suitors and options at this point, there are still several recognizable veteran names at first base. Trey Mancini is the top option remaining, but the likes of Luke Voit, Brandon Belt, and Miguel Sano all remain available to teams looking to make an addition. While both the Cubs and Nats were among the most obvious clubs for a first baseman, other teams still remain. The Orioles were known to have interest in Hosmer, while the Rays and Royals were in on Smith. The Marlins, Mariners, and Tigers are other teams for whom it could make sense to add another bat, though such an addition for any of these clubs would not necessarily need to come at first base.

2. Could the Yankees stand pat in left field?

The Yankees came into the offseason with the outfield as their most obvious hole, and while they’ve succeeded in retaining Aaron Judge, there’s still plenty of room for the club to make a second addition. Judge, Harrison Bader, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Aaron Hicks are the team’s current outfield options, and Giancarlo Stanton could potentially contribute on days he isn’t the team’s DH. There’s been a lot of talk throughout the offseason about who the team could add to play left field, but is it possible they’re content going into opening day with their current options? Cabrera was solid in a 44-game cup of coffee in 2022, batting .247/.312/.429 (111 wRC+) while splitting time between both outfield corners and all four infield spots. Meanwhile, Hicks is under contract for the next three seasons, so they may prefer to see if his value can bounce back in more of a part time role after a difficult season in 2022.

In addition to the options currently on the 40-man roster, the Yankees have loaded up on veteran outfield depth on minor league deals. Outfielders Michael Hermosillo, Willie Calhoun, and, most recently, Rafael Ortega have all landed deals to play in Scranton to start 2023. Any of them could prove to be plausible bench pieces for the big league club if the current position player mix suffers any losses, whether via injury or trade, before Opening Day. Ortega, in particular, posted a .265/.344/.408 line (108 wRC+) across 701 plate appearances with the Cubs during the 2021-22 seasons, and his left-handed bat could provide balance to a Yankees hitting corps currently dominated by righties.

3. MLBTR Chat Today

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Steve Adams fielded questions during a live chat (transcript here). If you still have unanswered questions about this offseason or the direction of your favorite team, you’re in luck, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting another chat today at 5pm CT. You can submit a question in advance here, and you can use the same link to check back in this evening and participate live once the chat begins.