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The Opener: Mets, Yankees, Rotation Market

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Mets land their top-end starter:

A busy week for the Mets got even better last night when the team swung a deal with the Brewers to acquire right-hander Freddy Peralta. New York surrendered two top prospects (Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat) in order to land Peralta (and righty Tobias Myers), but in doing so they’ve finally addressed their long-discussed need for a top-of-the-rotation talent. Peralta finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting this past year and is a two-time All-Star.

That pedigree is enough to make him a great choice to pair with Nolan McLean at the top of the rotation, but questions remain about what’s next for the Mets. Could the team look to make another addition, perhaps to add some insurance behind Carson Benge and Luis Robert Jr. in the outfield? New York still has a glut of starting pitching talent to dangle in subsequent trades. McLean’s dominant 2025 debut makes him a lock for the rotation. Veteran options include Peralta, David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, and Sean Manaea. Myers, top prospect Jonah Tong and former top prospect Christian Scott, who’s returning from 2024 Tommy John surgery, could all pitch in a big league rotation as well, though every member of that trio has at least one minor league option remaining.

2. Yankees land Bellinger:

The Yankees finally reunited with Cody Bellinger yesterday when he agreed to a five-year, $162.5MM deal that affords him the opportunity to opt out after the 2027 and ’28 seasons. The move helps to solidify the team’s outfield, setting the Yanks up to once again rely primarily on a trio of Bellinger, Aaron Judge, and Trent Grisham on the grass. That begs the question of what happens with young outfielder Jasson Dominguez and top prospect Spencer Jones, though both could certainly be kept as depth given that Grisham is on a one-year deal. It’s unclear at this point if the Yankees are done; Bellinger was the big fish the club was looking for, but they were also involved in the Peralta market prior to Milwaukee’s deal with the Mets. It’s possible they pivot elsewhere, though the Yanks have already deepened the rotation by acquiring lefty Ryan Weathers from the Marlins.

3. Post-Peralta rotation market:

Peralta’s trade to the Mets not only takes the top starting pitcher off the trade market, it also takes the most obvious suitor for high-end pitching off the table. That’s an interesting state of affairs given that the rotation market still boasts two starters with front-of-the-rotation pedigree: lefty Framber Valdez and, to a lesser extent given his down season in 2025, righty Zac Gallen. The Orioles have been known to be in the market for a front-end starter this winter, and while swinging a deal for Shane Baz added some upside, they haven’t landed a more established arm. The same can be said for the Cubs, who made a deal for promising righty Edward Cabrera earlier this month. Atlanta could use another arm but doesn’t typically spend at Valdez levels in free agency. The D-backs may not have payroll space. The Angels saved significant money with Anthony Rendon’s contract restructure but haven’t yet been prominent players in free agency.

Poll: Have The Mets Done Enough To Retool Their Lineup?

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Last night, the Mets officially announced their recent deal with star infielder Bo Bichette and swung a trade for former All-Star Luis Robert Jr. to patrol center field for the team this year. Those moves are the latest in what’s turned into a major overhaul of the Mets’ offense coming off a disappointing 83-win campaign that saw them miss the playoffs in Juan Soto’s first season under club control. Franchise stalwarts Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil departed the club and a group of new faces have been brought in. It’s a bold decision by president of baseball operations David Stearns to overhaul the offense so dramatically when the team’s 112 wRC+ was good for fifth-best in the majors last season.

The club also missed out on Kyle Tucker and haven’t yet managed to secure a front-of-the-rotation arm. Those developments have left some fans frustrated with the team headed into 2026. Spring Training is now less than a month away. While it’s certainly not impossible to make additional moves to round out the roster, there’s a chance the biggest moves are now done. If the collection of position players the Mets have now is what they’ll enter the 2026 campaign with, how does it compare to the group they put forward last year?

Both lineups will have the one-two punch of Francisco Lindor at shortstop and Soto in right field to kick things off. Things start to get significantly different from there, though. Alonso’s 141 wRC+ is difficult to replace, and no player the Mets have added so far figures to put up a gaudy number like that this year. Bichette (134 wRC+) and Jorge Polanco (132 wRC+) have both come into the mix on the heels of strong seasons in their own rights, however, and both figure to serve as legitimate middle-of-the-order threats for the Mets this season. Neither Bichette nor Polanco figure to provide the power that Alonso offered, as he swatted 38 long balls this year. Bichette has never hit even 30 homers in his career, and Polanco last did so in 2021.

As tough as the loss of Alonso is, however, it can certainly be argued at the team’s additions lengthen the lineup overall. While neither Bichette or Polanco offers quite the same offensive impact as Alonso, both were fair superior to Brandon Nimmo (115 wRC+) and Jeff McNeil (111 wRC+) last season. Marcus Semien (89 wRC+) and Robert (84 wRC+) weren’t at that level, but both are coming off injury-marred campaigns in 2025 and could see their numbers tick back up towards league average with better health. In the case of Robert, however, even a repeat of last year would be a substantial improvement for the Mets relative to what they got out of center field last year. The team’s center fielders (primarily Tyrone Taylor and Cedric Mullins) combined for a wRC+ of 71 with just 0.7 fWAR. That makes Robert a likely upgrade even if he can’t get close to the All-Star form he flashed back in 2023, when he posted a 129 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR in 145 games.

Health for both Semien and Robert figures to be key to a successful Mets lineup this year, but perhaps the biggest wild card is how the team’s young talent will perform. All indications suggest that, if another move isn’t made, top outfield prospect Carson Benge will get a clear shot at regular playing time for the Mets in the outfield. Meanwhile, Brett Baty will be looking to build on a successful 2025 season while likely spending time at first base and DH alongside Polanco, and Francisco Alvarez will try to replicate last season’s monster second half across the full year. Versatile prospect Jett Williams also figures to play a role for the team at some point this year, though when that will be (and where on the diamond he’ll wind up playing) remains to be seen.

Assuming a big trade like Jarren Duran isn’t coming down the pipeline to change the look of New York’s offense, how do MLBTR readers think the Mets’ lineup will fare in 2026? Will they be able to match last season’s production? Could they exceed it? Or will they come up short and be a less productive offense than the one Alonso helped lead last year? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers

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On the heels of an early morning trade, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Mets press conference later today:

The Mets are holding a press conference at 1pm local time to introduce star infielder Bo Bichette after his three-year deal with the club became official yesterday. Bichette himself and president of baseball operations David Stearns are both slated to be in attendance for today’s presser. Stearns surely will also wind up fielding questions regarding yesterday’s late-night acquisition of Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox in exchange for a package headlined by former top infield prospect Luisangel Acuña. With Bichette and Robert both in the fold, it will be interesting to hear from Stearns regarding whether he sees the team adding more to the lineup or if he now plans to turn his attention towards a starting rotation the club has been looking to upgrade with a front-end arm.

2. Red Sox presser later today:

In addition to the Mets, the Red Sox will also be hosting a press conference later today. The reason for the presser has not yet been stated, but after this morning’s Tristan Gray trade cleared a 40-man roster spot for Boston it seems likely that the club is poised to make the signing of southpaw Ranger Suarez official. The press conference is scheduled for 11am local time and could also provide an opportunity for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow to offer some insight into the team’s plans for the rest of the offseason. Presumably, the club’s top priority at this point is replacing Alex Bregman on the infield, though Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could at least theoretically be called upon to take up third base and second base, respectively, if the club relies exclusively on internal options.

3. Dodgers 40-man move incoming:

While Bichette’s deal was made official last night and the Suarez deal figures to be made official later this morning, the Dodgers’ deal with star outfielder Kyle Tucker has not yet been finalized. That will surely happen in the coming days, but before then Los Angeles will need to make a 40-man roster move. That can be achieved by simply designating a player for assignment, but a minor trade similar to the Gray swap Boston made this morning is another possibility.

Twins To Acquire Tristan Gray

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8:13am: Catching prospect Nate Baez is headed to Boston in exchange for Gray’s services, as reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN. Baez, 24, was a 12th-round selection by Minnesota in the 2022 draft and hit .278/.371/.423 in 96 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year.

7:41am: The Red Sox are trading infielder Tristan Gray to the Twins, according to a report from Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The return Boston will receive in exchange for Gray’s services is not yet clear. Minnesota will need to make a corresponding move to add Gray to the 40-man roster, assuming the return to Boston is not a player on the 40-man.

Gray, 30 in March, was a 13th-round pick by the Pirates back in 2017 who has received sporadic playing time at the big league level over the past three seasons. After short stints with the Rays, Marlins, and A’s that added up to just 36 total plate appearances across the 2023 and ’24 seasons, Gray got his longest big league opportunity with Tampa last year. In 86 trips to the plate across 30 games, Gray slashed .231/.282/.410 with a wRC+ of 89 while splitting time between all four infield spots. He was traded to the Red Sox at the outset of the offseason but is now on the move once again.

Interestingly, despite being a left-handed hitter Gray did his best work against fellow southpaws. Two of his three home runs came against same-handed pitching last year, and his career slash line against lefties is .360/.407/.680 in 27 trips to the plate as opposed to a much less impressive .163/.223/.279 line in 95 trips to the plate against right-handers. Of course, using left/right splits with a sample size that small can often be misleading, so it’s fair to wonder how much Gray’s reverse platoon splits would hold up if given a longer leash in the majors. It’s hard to believe that Gray would be able to keep up a career OPS north of 1.000 against lefties at the big league level, if exposed to major league pitching long-term.

Regardless of the unusual shape of his production, Gray is a career .242/.310/.472 hitter at the Triple-A level with experience all over the infield. While he hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity to show what he can do in the majors to this point, perhaps Minnesota will be the place where he gets that chance. The Twins have Luke Keaschall at second base, Brooks Lee at shortstop, and Royce Lewis at third base headed into the season. Gray isn’t going to bump any of those high-upside talents from their positions, but each comes with a significant injury history that could create opportunities in the majors throughout the season.

Headed into Spring Training, Gray figures to compete for a utility infield role on the Twins’ bench. There’s plenty of internal competition for that role already. Kody Clemens and Austin Martin are likely viewed as the favorites for that sort of role given their solid production last season, and players like Vidal Brujan, Eric Wagaman, and Ryan Kreidler could also find themselves in the mix for a bench job. It’s a deep enough group with enough big league experience that Gray figures to face an uphill battle making the team’s roster out of camp, but perhaps injuries elsewhere on the roster could allow him to find his way back to the majors sometime this year.

Marlins Acquire Bradley Blalock

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1:30pm: The Rockies and Marlins officially announced the deal. The Rockies receive minor league right-hander Jake Brooks in return. Brooks was an 11th-round pick of the Marlins in 2023. He posted a 4.33 ERA across 116 1/3 innings last year, split between High-A and Double-A. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December of 2026 if he doesn’t have a 40-man spot by then. The Fish designated Osvaldo Bido for assignment to open a roster spot, which you can read more about here.

10:49am: The Marlins are acquiring right-hander Bradley Blalock from the Rockies in exchange for a minor league pitcher, according to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Blalock was designated for assignment by Colorado last week in order to make room for Michael Lorenzen on the 40-man roster. The Marlins will need to make a corresponding move to clear 40-man roster space for Blalock once the deal becomes official.

Blalock, 25, was a 32nd round pick by the Red Sox back in 2019. He was traded to the Brewers prior to his big league debut in the deal that brought Luis Urias to Boston. He made his first trip to the majors in 2024, but pitched just one scoreless frame for Milwaukee before being shipped to Colorado in a trade that netted the Brewers righty Nick Mears. Since arriving in Colorado just before the 2024 trade deadline, Blalock has made 20 appearances (including 18 starts) for the Rockies. Those haven’t gone especially well, as he’s posted an 8.25 ERA across 88 1/3 innings of work with the club so far.

Some of that can surely be attributed to the perils of pitching at Coors Field, but even Blalock’s underlying metrics have been deeply troubling. In 58 2/3 frames this season, Blalock posted a minuscule 9.8% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate that nearly matched the punch outs. That was the lowest K-BB% among pitchers with at least 50 innings last year. While a .332 BABIP and a 57.3% strand rate both suggest there could be room for positive regression relative to this year’s brutal 9.34 ERA, a 5.67 xFIP and 6.05 SIERA leave little room for enthusiasm about Blalock’s season in 2026.

Of course, that doesn’t mean decent production from the righty is impossible. Blalock still has youth on his side, having just celebrated his 25th birthday last month, and perhaps a Marlins team that has found a lot of success developing pitchers in recent years can help get the righty on track. Even if Blalock’s skills don’t take a step forward in his new organization, the righty could still benefit enough from getting away from Coors Field (where he has a career 10.85 ERA) that he proves to be an adequate depth option for Miami. The Marlins were in need of depth behind their starting rotation after trades of Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers hollowed out the team’s deep cachet of arms a bit.

The starting rotation in Miami remains strong on paper, even after those deals. Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez figure to a lead a rotation that also includes Braxton Garrett, Max Meyer, and Janson Junk with top propsects Thomas White and Robby Snelling on the way. Blalock will join Ryan Gusto, Osvaldo Bido, and others in the group of depth arms behind the team’s primary starting options. While that puts him fairly far down the depth chart, the number of significant injuries Marlins pitchers (including Alcantara, Perez, and Garrett) have suffered in recent years makes Blalock pitching meaningful innings for the Marlins this year a legitimate possibility. That could change, however, if the team adds a more established veteran pitcher to help eat innings. That’s a move that’s been rumored and speculated upon frequently in the aftermath of their moves to deal away Cabrera and Weathers, but it’s unclear how the addition of depth arms like Blalock and Bido in recent weeks would impact those efforts.

A’s Had Deal In Place For Nolan Arenado Prior To D-Backs Trade

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The Nolan Arenado trade saga in St. Louis came to a close last week, when he was dealt to Arizona in exchange for salary relief and minor league righty Jack Martinez. According to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, however, the Diamondbacks weren’t the only team to reach a deal with the Cardinals. Rosenthal reports that the Athletics not only pursued Arenado in trade with St. Louis, but that the sides actually had a deal in place that would’ve sent Arenado to the west coast. The deal would’ve seen the A’s take on more money than Arizona was willing to, Rosenthal notes, but was scuttled by the fact that Arenado indicated he preferred to go to the Diamondbacks or Padres and may not have approved a deal with the A’s.

The news represents the latest indication of the Athletics’ desire to return to contention in advance of their move to Las Vegas, which is expected to be in time for the 2028 season. Arenado, 35 in April, is under contract for just two more seasons and would likely not have been on the club by the time the team arrived in Nevada. Even so, his addition would’ve been a way for the team to address third base in the short term. The A’s brought in Jeff McNeil to take over second base earlier this winter, and already have impressive players at first base (Nick Kurtz), shortstop (Jacob Wilson), DH (Brent Rooker), catcher (Shea Langeliers) and the outfield corners (Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom). That leaves third base as one of the most obvious places the team could upgrade, and even an aging Arenado would likely provide a higher floor than 23-year-old Max Muncy at the position.

That makes it fairly easy to see why the A’s would have interest in Arenado’s services and, if the team was willing to take on a larger portion of Arenado’s salary in order to facilitate the deal than Arizona wound up agreeing to take, it’s easy to see why the Cardinals would have seen the Athletics as an attractive trade partner. Unfortunately for both clubs, however, Arenado wasn’t quite so enthused. The veteran and likely future Hall of Famer seemed to prioritize playing for a club with more credible playoff aspirations as he wielded his no-trade clause over the past two offseasons, and the A’s are not exactly a proven playoff squad. Even after last year’s steps forward, the team finished with a middling 76-86 record that left them fourth place in the AL West. While that was a modest improvement over the year prior, it still left them far out from a playoff spot. The fact that the A’s are currently playing in a minor league park presumably didn’t help.

Perhaps a full season of Kurtz and development for the team’s other young players can help them take another step forward, but teams like the Mariners, Astros, and even Rangers don’t seem likely to be going anywhere this year. That leaves the A’s in a precarious position as far as making the playoffs go, and Arenado clearly wasn’t enthused about rolling the dice on the team. While the Diamondbacks are exceedingly unlikely to win the NL West this year thanks to the mighty Dodgers, they should be in the mix for a Wild Card spot alongside teams like the Padres, Giants, Mets, Braves, and Reds. That’s a much thinner field than the Wild Card race in the AL, which arguably includes all five teams in the AL East alone.

If the A’s want to consider other possible upgrades to the third base position, there are at least a handful of other trade options out there. Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan and Cubs youngster Matt Shaw both have the ability to handle the hot corner, but could be too expensive in terms of the return cost for the A’s to swing a deal. Perhaps the Phillies would be willing to move Alec Bohm, but they seem less likely to do so than they were when they were pursuing Bo Bichette. The Astros could look to move Isaac Paredes, but it would be a shock to see them trade within the division. Lower level free agents like Yoan Moncada and Ramon Urias could serve as an alternative route to upgrade the roster, though the A’s have at times had trouble luring players to West Sacramento.

The Opener: Hall Of Fame, Rays, Phillies

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Hall of Fame ballot reveal:

The results of this year’s Hall of Fame vote will be announced at 5pm CT this evening. Anyone who receives 75% of the vote or more will join second baseman Jeff Kent as part of the 2026 Hall of Fame class. This year’s class of newcomers to the ballot is headlined by southpaw Cole Hamels, though the lefty won’t be inducted on his first ballot. Outfielder Manny Ramirez is entering his final year on the ballot and will surely miss out on induction due to PED usage during his career, as steroid era legends like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have before him. Ryan Thibodaux’s BBHOF Tracker records all publicly revealed ballots and estimates that 54% of the total ballots are currently publicly available. If the rest of the votes were to perfectly mirror the publicly revealed ballot outfielders Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones would both be elected this cycle.

2. Rays stadium update incoming:

While the Rays are now under new ownership, that hasn’t stopped the team’s efforts to move out of Tropicana Field and build a new stadium in the area. As noted by Lucy Marques, Colleen Wright, Nina Moske, and Nicolas Villamil of the Tampa Bay Times, the board of trustees for Hillsborough College are scheduled to vote at 4pm local time this afternoon on a memorandum of understanding with the Rays regarding a stadium plan at the college’s Dale Mabry campus. The team’s proposal would see a stadium built at that campus and also upgrades to the school’s facilities on the campus. This is only the first in what would need to be a series of votes and negotiations in order to make a stadium on the campus into a reality, but it would nonetheless be a major step to signal where the Rays might play when their days at the Trop finally come to an end.

3. Phillies media availability:

The Phillies have made their reunion with catcher J.T. Realmuto official, and as they did so the club announced that Realmuto, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, and manager Rob Thomson will all be available to the media over Zoom starting at 10am local time this morning. That virtual presser could provide an insight into the team’s plans for the remainder of the offseason on the heels of not only signing Realmuto, but also narrowly missing out on a deal with star infielder Bo Bichette just hours before the Realmuto deal became official. It’s possible that bringing back Realmuto is the capstone on an offseason that’s largely seen the Phillies focus on retaining their own players rather than make big external additions, though their pursuit of Bichette did suggest that the team is (or at least was) open to retooling the roster in a more significant way this winter.

Phillies Designate Weston Wilson For Assignment

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The Phillies announced this morning that they’ve designated infielder Weston Wilson for assignment. The move makes room for veteran catcher J.T. Realmuto, whose new contract with Philadelphia is now official, on the 40-man roster.

Wilson, 31, has appeared in 100 games for the Phillies over the past three seasons while being used in an up-and-down bench role. He’s slashed a respectable .242/.328/.428 (109 wRC+) across 245 career trips to the plate in the big leagues, with eight stolen bases and nine homers. That’s decent enough production from a bench player, and Wilson has paired it with decent versatility. While he’s primarily played left field in the majors, he’s also received time at second base, third base, first base, and right field. He’s also seen time at shortstop in the minors previously, though that was not the case this past year.

That combination of versatility and a solid resume in the big leagues might make Wilson seem like a very attractive bench piece, but a tough 2025 season casts doubt on that assessment. When looking exclusively at this most recent campaign, Wilson hit just .198/.282/.369 (81 wRC+) in the majors across 54 games. Underlying metrics, including a 10.3% barrel rate, an unusually low .236 BABIP, and a .333 xwOBA that significantly outpaces his .288 wOBA all suggest that Wilson may have some poor fortune baked into those weak numbers, particularly given that his strikeout (27.2%) and walk (9.6%) rates were both improved relative to 2024.

Those signs that positive regression could be on the way, in conjunction with Wilson’s career 130 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, make it easy to think that Wilson could hold down a bench role at the big league level. That didn’t allow him to hold onto his roster spot in Philadelphia, however, as Otto Kemp and Edmundo Sosa are both ahead of him on the team’s depth chart when it comes to right-handed utility players. In previous years, the Phillies would’ve surely held onto Wilson and kept him on the roster as optionable depth, but Philadelphia used Wilson’s last option year in 2025 and would now need to pass Wilson through waivers in order to send him to the minors anyway.

They’re getting that process underway now. They’ll have one week to either work out a trade involving Wilson or put him through the waiver wire. Should Wilson clear waivers, the Phillies would likely outright him to the minor leagues where he could serve as non-roster depth for the club headed into 2026. Given Wilson’s solid numbers at the big league level, however, it seems likely that a team will be interested in rolling the dice on him. That could come in the form of a simple waiver claim, or perhaps a minor trade if a team is interested enough in Wilson to try and work out a deal with Philadelphia directly.

Poll: Will Luis Arraez Land A Multi-Year Deal?

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There may be no player in baseball today who, from a statistical perspective, is more controversial than Luis Arraez. The winner of three consecutive batting titles from 2022-24, Arraez is a three-time All-Star with a career .317 batting average and a lifetime 6.1% strikeout rate that makes him a throwback to an era of baseball decades in the past.

That’s earned him a large number of fans around the game, but more modern analytics are skeptical of his case to be considered among the game’s stars. He’s a limited defender who is best served playing first base or DH despite still being just 28 years old, and even at his peak defensive ability he was a passable second baseman at best. While his 6.5% walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate, it’s still below average, which keeps his OBP from reaching elite levels. Perhaps most importantly, Arraez has less power than almost any other player in the game. Just 12 qualified players have a lower career ISO than Arraez since he made his big league debut back in 2019, and among that group Nicky Lopez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Myles Straw are the only ones who have been everyday players for a significant stretch of time. He’s tied with Kiner-Falefa for the fewest home runs of any player with at least 3000 plate appearances over the past ten years.

That combination of minimal defensive value and bottom-of-the-scale power makes Arraez an unattractive bet for many teams. First base and DH are two of the spots in the lineup teams rely most heavily on to generate home run power, and slotting Arraez into one of those spots means the team will have to be able to compensate in other areas in order to field a well-balanced lineup. That’s certainly far from impossible; the Padres, for whom Arraez played in each of the past two seasons, have a 107 wRC+ over the past two seasons that’s tied with the Blue Jays for seventh-best in baseball. Even they, however, rank just 21st in the majors when it comes to home runs and 23rd in ISO during Arraez’s time with the club.

How much will teams value an all-hit, no-power first baseman on the open market in the age of analytics? Arraez’s free agency is about to show us, but the early signs aren’t impressive. The rumor mill has been exceedingly quiet regarding Arraez. San Diego was reported to have interest in a reunion back in November, but that was at a time when right-hander Michael King was expected to sign elsewhere. It’s unclear if they’ll have the money in the budget to add Arraez back into the fold after that expenditure. Similarly, the Rangers were connected to Arraez early in the offseason. Even at the time, however, there were questions about the team’s ability to fit Arraez in the budget. A report last week that the club was unlikely to pursue additional offense this winter further casts doubt on their standing as a realistic option for Arraez.

Looking for speculative fits presents a challenge. Many teams like the Dodgers, Tigers, Royals, and Astros have cluttered first base and DH mixes that make squeezing Arraez onto the roster essentially impossible. For other teams, they have some combination of established talent and interesting young players who would be hard to justify bumping out of a regular role in favor of Arraez. Would the Cubs spend to bring him in at DH even as Moises Ballesteros offers a contact-heavy, lefty bat on the league minimum? Could the Giants justify keeping Bryce Eldridge in the minors to make room for Arraez alongside Rafael Devers? The Yankees left Ben Rice without a clear place to play in deference to Paul Goldschmidt last year, but it’s impossible to imagine them doing the same for Arraez after Rice broke out in 2025.

Perhaps the best fits for Arraez are the teams he’s already played for. San Diego’s interest was already mentioned earlier, but the Marlins currently plan to use Christopher Morel at first base with Agustin Ramirez at DH, while the Twins have Josh Bell at the position and no locked in DH. Arraez could easily squeeze into either of those mixes, but it would be at least a mild surprise to see either club make a big offer to their former player. Perhaps a rebuilding team like the Nationals or Cardinals could sign Arraez, but if most contenders would have trouble fitting him on the roster, that may not speak well to his trade market over the summer.

Those tough headwinds on the market might not be quite as significant if Arraez had a better platform year, but 2025 was arguably his weakest season ever. While he played in 154 games and managed a career-high 11 stolen bases, his .289 BABIP was a career low by far and that led to a career-worst .292 batting average. With that drop in average came a drop in production across the board, as his .292/.327/.392 slash line was good for a wRC+ of just 104. That’s not exactly impactful production from a first baseman or DH, and if Arraez offered production more like the 123 wRC+ he had posted in his three years winning the batting title, perhaps teams would be more motivated to find room for him on their roster.

Perhaps, then, Arraez would be best served signing a one-year deal and retesting the market next season. That would fall below the two-year $24MM contract prediction MLBTR set out for Arraez at the outset of the offseason, and he’s previously indicated a desire for longer-term security after being traded twice in his career already. Even so, it might still represent the best (or only) option for Arraez given his down season and a tough market for first base/DH types. That’s especially true given that Arraez is young enough to procure a longer-term offer next offseason in the event he turns in a big 2026 campaign. With that said, there might be a team willing to bet on a bounce-back from Arraez and offer him a modest multi-year deal like the one MLBTR predicted for him back in November. Another possibility could be the Padres, known for their willingness to get creative and stretch dollars across multiple years, coming to Arraez with a creative multi-year offer like the one they gave Nick Pivetta last winter.

How do MLBTR readers think Arraez’s market will shake out? Will he be able to procure the multi-year deal many expected he’d be able to find at the outset of the winter, or will a tough market force him to take a one year deal? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Top Free Agents, Braves, Catching Market

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Top Free Agents still on the board:

The top of the free agent market picked up late last week with a frenzy of activity. Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Ranger Suarez, and J.T. Realmuto all came off the board over the course of just a couple of days. That series of moves took this offseason’s free agent class from still being rather deep in quality options to looking relatively barren at the very top. At this point, the best options still available are left-hander Framber Valdez and outfielder Cody Bellinger. Players like Zac Gallen and Eugenio Suarez also remain, but they lack the sort of surefire impact Valdez and Bellinger can provide.

Bellinger’s market has gotten plenty of attention of late thanks to the apparent impasse between his camp and the incumbent Yankees in negotiations. The team’s apparent willingness to include opt outs after the second and third seasons of their five-year offer in the $150MM to $160MM range has not motivated Bellinger to sign so far. The Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs are among the other teams that have been connected to Bellinger and could be lurking as potential rivals. Valdez, meanwhile, has had a relatively quiet market but remains connected to the Orioles and Mets. The Blue Jays reportedly met with him back in November, but that was before the club brought in Dylan Cease. Where will the remaining stars on the market ultimately land?

2. Braves take a big hit to their infield:

Yesterday’s news that Ha-Seong Kim had suffered a hand injury that required surgery with a four-to-five month recovery timeline was a brutal blow for fans in Atlanta. After bringing Kim in with the hope of upgrading what was among the very worst production in the majors at shortstop in 2025, the team will now be without their marquee lineup addition for most of the first half next year. Coming off a disappointing 86-loss season last year and with just three years remaining before Ronald Acuna Jr. reaches free agency, Atlanta is surely hoping to make the most of the 2026 campaign. Will president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos find a way to patch the sudden hole in the team’s roster, even in spite of a payroll that’s already skyrocketed this offseason thanks to additions like Kim, Robert Suarez, and Mike Yastrzemski? Or will the team need to look towards internal options like Mauricio Dubon to keep the team on track while Kim recovers?

3. Appetite for catching help strong around the league:

Realmuto and Victor Caratini both signed over the weekend, leaving zero reliable regulars behind the plate available in free agency. That’s a particularly notable development given the number of teams that reportedly have interest in catching upgrades. Both the Rays and Red Sox were both reportedly involved in the markets for Realmuto and Caratini, respectively, before the pair signed elsewhere. The Padres have Freddy Fermin behind the plate but could certainly benefit from adding a reliable player to split time with him. The Astros are without a backup for Yainer Diaz after Caratini’s departure, as well. Those clubs will have to look towards the players left in free agency, like Jonah Heim and Gary Sanchez, as possible solutions or else turn to the trade market, where players like Yankees backup J.C. Escarra and Phillies backup Rafael Marchan are among the options that might be at least theoretically available.

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