David Freese Announces Retirement
David Freese announced his retirement from baseball today.
Freese is of course most well known for his unassailable performance in the 2011 postseason for the St. Louis Cardinals. The Missouri native improbably knocked a two-out, two-run triple for his hometown team in the bottom of the ninth of game six to keep the Cardinals alive. Then just for kicks, he went ahead and won it with a walk-off home run leading off the 11th inning to force game seven. Not to outdo himself, but when the Rangers jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the top of the first of game seven, Freese responded in the bottom half with a game-tying 2-run double. It is not an understatement to put Freese’s 2011 among the most clutch and dramatically interesting performances in baseball history.
His postseason heroics were not anomalous to 2011, however, as in 230 career postseason plate appearances spanning 69 games, Freese hit .299/.370/.549 with 10 home runs and 36 RBIs for the Cardinals, Angels, and Dodgers. In terms of win probability added, Freese’s 2011 World Series performance ranks second all-time only to Willie Aikens for the 1980 Kansas City Royals, who hit four home runs with a .538 OBP in six games against the Phillies.
In terms of regular season achievement, Freese was a more modest performer. He holds a career batting line of .277/.351/.423 with 113 home runs in 1,184 games for the Cardinals, Angels, Pirates, and Dodgers. He only once hit more than 15 home runs in a season, and he handled the transition into part-time player with aplomb. As much as he was an extra man for the Dodgers the last two seasons, given their lack of obvious need at first and third base, his retirement is nonetheless a blow for the Dodgers coming off their defeat in the NLDS. It is not so much his skillset they will miss, not with Justin Turner, Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger on hand at the corners, but his personage, as all indications point to Freese as a class-act, veteran leader, and as mentioned, a singular clutch performer. If there were such a thing as a postseason specialist, Freese would be the mold.
Wade Miley Left Off Astros ALCS Roster
The Houston Astros announced their roster for the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees, which begins tonight in Houston. Two changes were made from the ALDS…
Wade Miley and Myles Straw are the two casualties from the NLDS group. Miley would have been a candidate to start game four, but momentum has moved increasingly to Jose Urquidy to get the nod for that game. Straw appeared in games 1 and 2 of the ALDS as a pinch-runner, but he is a numbers casualty here as the Astros decided to carry a 12th pitcher.
Right-handers Bryan Abreu and Brad Peacock join the group. Peacock can serve as a long man out of the pen, or he could be a candidate to start the fourth game of the series. Abreu is an especially interesting add, as the 22-year-old has just 7 big league appearances under his belt. A high-spin-rate curveball is his trademark pitch, and though he was a starter in High-A and Double-A for most of the season, his 6 September appearances were enough to prove his postseason utility to the Houston brass. He struck out 13 batters in 8 2/3 big league innings, giving up just 4 hits.
Here’s the complete 25-man unit:
Right-Handed Pitchers
- Bryan Abreu
- Gerrit Cole
- Zack Greinke (probably game 1 starter)
- Will Harris
- Josh James
- Roberto Osuna
- Brad Peacock
- Ryan Pressly
- Hector Rondon
- Joe Smith
- Jose Urquidy
- Justin Verlander (probable game 2 starter)
Left-Handed Pitchers
None
Infielders
Outfielders
Catchers
Miley’s absence is the most notable for a couple of reasons. He provided steady production for most of the season, finishing 14-6 with a 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP across 33 starts and 167 1/3 innings. He also saw postseason success for last season’s Brewers when he carried a 1.23 ERA over 14 2/3 postseason innings. He appeared in game three of this year’s ALDS, surrendering 4 hits and 2 earned runs across 2 2/3 innings in relief of Zack Greinke. Miley is a free agent at the end of the season after signing a one-year, $4.5MM deal with Houston this offseason. Being left off the ALCS roster is not likely to affect the market for his services this winter.
Without Miley, the Astros aren’t carrying a single left-handed pitcher on the roster. The Yankees are flush with right-handed power hitters, so it’s not necessarily a glaring need, but it’s still worth noting. Of course, the Astros have gone without a lefty in their pen for stretches of the season, and it’s a cosmetic issue nonetheless. Pressly, Harris, James, Osuna, and Urquidy have all fared as well or better against lefties this season as against righties, despite the unseemliness of throwing with their right hand.
Mark Shapiro, Toronto Blue Jays Open To Extension
There may be an extension on the horizon for Toronto Blue Jays President and CEO Mark Shapiro, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).
There’s not a lot of concrete action here to go off of, but both sides are open to discussing an extension as Shapiro enters the final year of his current contract. Prior to taking over as team president in 2015, Shapiro had been a soldier of the Indians organization since 1991. He served as GM for the 2002-2010 seasons before a promotion to team president. In what was a fairly gracious move on the part of Indians ownership, they allowed Shapiro to leave for the Toronto job without requiring compensation.
Shapiro took over in Toronto on August 31, 2015, just a month before the team would make their first playoff appearance since 1993. Previous team president Paul Beeston had announced his intentions to retire following the 2015 season. GM Alex Anthopoulos chose not to return following the 2015 season. Though there was reportedly an extension offer at the time, Shapiro’s hiring also removed Anthopoulos’ autonomy regarding baseball decision. In retrospect, it’s hardly surprising that Anthopoulos would step aside given the circumstances. He has done just fine for himself after being hired as the Braves GM in November of 2017.
The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are putting together a roster of note for the first time since those playoff squads, though they are likely a year or two from truly competing in the AL East. As for Shapiro, his intentions regarding Toronto appear clear, per this tweet from Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca, in which Shapiro states, “I’ve been clear and consistent about enjoying where I am and wanting to be here. From a competitive perspective, I want to finish the job. That’s incredibly important to me.”
NLCS Injury Updates: Suzuki, Gomes, Hudson, Robles
Kurt Suzuki has been questionable since a fastball from Walker Buehler glanced off his arm and into his forehead, prompting an early exit from game five of the NLDS. Still, Suzuki is ready to return for game two, and he’ll be behind the dish to catch Max Scherzer in St. Louis this afternoon, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. The Nationals are up 1-0 in the NLCS, but they’re not without questions heading into game two…
- Yan Gomes started more games during the regular season than Suzuki, and he only caught Anibal Sanchez twice during the first 162, but he put together a stellar game in Suzuki’s stead last night. Not only did Gomes guide Sanchez and Sean Doolittle in their one-hit effort, but he also reached base three times and knocked in the game’s first run. The Nationals will have a decision to make on Gomes in the offseason regarding a $9MM club option. Gomes was one of the NL’s worst offensive performers for an uncomfortably large chunk of the season, but he hit his stride late in September when an injury to Suzuki forced Gomes to be an every-down bellcow. Suzuki will return at age-37 to play a part in the Nats’ 2020 catching picture, but after 70 starts this season, it’s likely the Nats will again need someone to carry the brunt of the catching burden. Gomes clocked out with a .223/.316/.389 batting line with 12 home runs, but he better controls the run game than Suzuki and had better marks as a receiver overall. The Nats will have upwards of $100MM to play with this winter, so unless they have a clear upgrade in mind, there’s a decent chance they pick up that option heading into the offseason.
- Anibal Sanchez put his stamp on the NLCS in a big way last night, providing 7 ⅔ huge innings of one-hit ball for the Nationals. Cardinals hitters managed an average exit velocity of just 83.1 mph off of Sanchez on the night. The length provided by Sanchez was all the more crucial on a night when they were without their most integral reliever. That Daniel Hudson is a lynchpin reliever in the championship series is amazing in and of itself, but there was near panic in DC when it was announced he was to miss game one for the birth of his third child. It all worked out for the best – healthy baby girl, game one victory – and Hudson will be in St. Louis tonight to relieve his 9th-inning tag-team partner in Doolittle, who closed yesterday’s game with a four-out save. Crazy as this sounds, all but 2 of the 118 outs recorded in wins by the Nationals this postseason have come from Hudson, Doolittle, or the the Nats four-piece rotation, tweets Dougherty.
- Victor Robles may return to the lineup soon, per MLB.com’s Jamal Collier and Anne Rogers. He will not, however, be in the starting lineup for game two, tweets MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Michael A. Taylor has been a surprisingly able replacement, though he did finally snap an 8-game postseason hitting streak with an 0-4 night in game one. Robles certainly provides more upside, and he’s arguably the best defensive centerfielder in baseball, but with so much of his game speed-dependent, there’s little reason to rush him back until his hamstring is healthy enough to be at full speed.
Reds Offense, Not The Bullpen, Responsible For Struggles In Close Games
The Reds bullpen crumbled down the stretch in 2019, but confidence remains high in their core group of high-impact relievers, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”
The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.
[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]
All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.
John Gibbons Hopes To Interview For Managerial Vacancies
Former Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons is throwing his hat in the ring for the many managerial openings across Major League Baseball, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter).
Gibbons last managed a major league team in 2018 when he led the Toronto Blue Jays to a record of 73-89. It was the final season of a 6-year stint in Toronto during which the Blue Jays went 488-484, winning the AL East with a 93-win season in 2015. Toronto came within two wins of reaching the World Series, falling in six games to the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals in the ALCS.
They made the playoffs twice in Gibbons’ tenure, also capturing the Wild Card in 2016. The Blue Jays won that WC game in thrilling fashion when Edwin Encarnacion walked off Ubaldo Jimenez in the bottom of the 11th with a 3-run home run. That game is more famous for the decisions made in the opposing dugout, as Buck Showalter never got uber-closer Zack Britton into the ballgame, despite owning a 0.54 ERA across 69 games on the season. Showalter’s decision certainly played a role in the expansion of the fireman concept in contemporary bullpens, as teams are far less likely these days to save someone like Britton for a save situation that may never come.
Gibbons’ teams performed well in the postseason, winning not just the WC game but also sweeping the Rangers in the ALDS. Losing two straight seasons in the ALCS won’t etch Gibbons name anywhere in Cooperstown, but it was an achievement nonetheless. He helped end a 22-year postseason drought that extended from their World Series victory in 1993 until the division title in 2015.
Of course, Gibbons was well aware of the drought, as his first and only other managerial experience came with the Blue Jays from August 2004 until June of 2008. Those Blue Jays teams were always competitive, despite never reaching the postseason. His entire Blue Jays tenure ended with a record of 793-789, a .501 winning percentage.
There are a number of managerial vacancies around the MLB at present, including high profile offices in New York and Chicago. The Royals, Padres, Pirates, Giants and Angels are the other clubs hunting a new field manager. For what it’s worth, Gibbons began his professional coaching career with the Mets in 1990. He also served as a bench coach in Kansas City, and Double-A manager in the Padres system for the 2012 season.
MLBTR Poll: Will Stephen Strasburg Opt Out?
Three games into the Washington Nationals 2019 postseason and Stephen Strasburg has already played the part of hero twice. In the other game, the Nats lost. Last night’s mastery spun 6 innings of 3-hit ball with 10 strikeouts to zero walks as he took the win at Dodger Stadium. His brilliance in the 2017 NLDS against the Cubs is largely forgotten since they didn’t advance, but it does add to the mounting pile of evidence suggesting Strasburg is indeed one of the game’s best big game pitchers.
Strasburg has a decision looming whenever the magic of the Nationals 2019 postseason runs dry. He has an opt-out clause in his contract that he could exercise to become a free agent this winter. Given the depressed market of recent offseasons, the possibility that Stras would opt-out seemed far-fetched not too long ago. That’s no longer the case. After completing perhaps the healthiest season of his career, one in which he could finish as high as second in Cy Young voting, one in which he registered league-leading marks in wins (18) and innings (209), as well as notching a career-high 251 strikeouts, Strasburg’s opt-out is more certain now than ever.
His agent, Scott Boras, is sure to make that pitch, though he has thus far refrained from speaking specifically about Strasburg’s intentions. He is, however, laying the groundwork for potential free agency by declaring stud starters such as Strasburg immune to any downturns in the market, per Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. With four-years and $100MM remaining on his contract already, he won’t exactly be hard-up for cash either way. Strasburg, 31, is also the rarest of Boras client – one who signed before reaching the open market.
If he doesn’t opt-out, his deal would expire after his 35th birthday. Strasburg could view this winter as his last opportunity to lock-in a major payday for his elder years. Zack Greinke signed his six-year, $206.5MM deal at a similar point in his career – after a career season in which he turned 31-years-old and finished second in Cy Young voting. In raw totals, Greinke’s 9.1 bWAR 2015 with the Dodgers eclipses Strasburg’s 6.3 bWAR 2019 by a decent margin, and Greinke’s overall track record was a tad more impressive at the time. He had been worth 48.9 bWAR to that point in his career versus 32.6 bWAR for Strasburg now. Even if you attribute the difference largely to durability (323 GS, 2094 2/3 innings for Greinke post-2015, 239 GS, 1438 2/3 innings for Strasburg post-2019), that’s hardly an insignificant attribution in contract negotiation.
A similar contract would more than double Strasburg’s guaranteed money while only tacking on two additional years. From the team perspective, it’s hard to fault the Diamondbacks for the deal now, as despite the whopping gross total, Greinke did deliver 16.4 bWAR across 3+ seasons, a playoff appearance, utility player Josh Rojas and their #4, #11 and #12 prospects as ranked by MLB.com.
Jake Arrieta signed a free agent contract when the Phillies inked him to a 3-year, $75MM deal the same week he turned 32. Arrieta had an even more uneven history than Strasburg, with 20.2 bWAR earned at the point of his free agency and a chasm of difference between the glory years in Chicago and his humble beginnings in Baltimore. This also feels less comparable to Strasburg as – despite being close to the same age at the time of free agency – Arrieta appeared headed for the downswing of his career. Strasburg is just now coming into his own, as written about here by Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.
That same offseason, Yu Darvish signed his 6-year, $126MM deal with the Cubs in the winter of his 31st year. Darvish was coming off a 4.0 bWAR season split between Texas and Los Angeles, though a pair of disastrous World Series outings certainly colored the narrative of his free agency.
Regardless, Strasburg, Scott Boras, and the Nationals will have a lot to talk about this winter. If Strasburg can further grow his October legend, Boras may be right about his value transcending that of the market. Not to mention, Strasburg’s hometown of San Diego has a team on the rise, money to spend, and a gigantic ballpark with which to lure Strasburg home. In terms of competition, he’d be the clear-cut second-best starting pitching option on the free agent market after Gerrit Cole. You tell me: what comes next in the Strasburg saga?
(Poll link for app users)
Will Stephen Strasburg Opt-Out After 2019?
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Yes. 53% (4,211)
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Yes, but only to negotiate an extension with the Nats. 28% (2,236)
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No. 19% (1,540)
Total votes: 7,987
Joe Girardi Doing His Due Diligence On Mets
Joe Girardi does his homework. Whether he’s the right man to lead the New York Mets in the wake of Mickey Callaway’s firing will ultimately be decided by GM Brodie Van Wagenen and COO Jeff Wilpon, but one thing is for certain, Girardi will do his due diligence before officially throwing his hat in the ring.
Girardi began doing his research on the Mets a couple of weeks before Callaway was let go, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. His ability to co-exist with the front office was one of the driving factors of his dismissal as the manager of the New York Yankees, despite having managed them to a title in 2009. If he does return to the bench, whether that be in New York, Chicago, or elsewhere, the foundations of a solid working relationship with upper management will be an important box to check.
The Mets are investigating all of the big names out there on the open market, with Dusty Baker, Joe Maddon, and Buck Showalter surfacing alongside Girardi. Former players like David Cone and Carlos Beltran have also been linked with the position, though we’ve yet to reach the stage of real legitimacy in this search process. Remember, there are no bad ideas in brainstorming.
There are bad hiring decisions, however, and as he enters his second season on the job, this could be Van Wagenen’s one chance to find the right field manager. The Mets have a tall task ahead of them considering the relatively crowded field of contenders in the NL East. The Braves aren’t going anywhere, the Nationals have some free agency questions to answer, but they could very well return as good or better than they were in 2019, and Bryce Harper and the Phillies will enter 2020 with an increased level of urgency after fading in the second half.
Even the Marlins are building towards a future of some significance, though they remain a year or two away. Seeing Girardi helm the Mets for 19 games a season against Derek Jeter‘s Marlins would certainly provide interesting opportunities for repartee between former colleagues. Furthering the fun, Miami manager Don Mattingly was under consideration for manager of the Yankees when the role ultimately went to Girardi.
It’s worth wondering whether Girardi’s straight-shooter style is too similar to the recently-departed Callaway, though Girardi’s open communication is perhaps a touch more sophisticated than Callaway, who famously lost his temper with a reporter while the team was in a skid. It’s clear Girardi wants to return to the dugout, and if there’s a spot for him, the Mets or Cubs seem like the most obvious landing spots due to his obvious connections to New York and Chicago, respectively.
Steve Pearce Considering Retirement
Hero and MVP of the 2018 World Series Steve Pearce is considering retirement, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.
Last season ended in storybook fashion for the long-time role player as he turned in a historic performance for his favorite team from childhood, the Boston Red Sox. The 36-year-old was acquired from the Blue Jays in June mostly to serve as a right-handed option at first base, but he reached another gear at the biggest time of the year. In five games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Pearce went 4-12 with a .500 OBP, 3 home runs, and 8 RBIs in earning MVP honors.
As incredible as last season ended, however, this season was an equal disaster. In just 29 games, Pearce turned in a miserable .180/.245/.258 line worth -0.6 bWAR, last appearing at the end of May while suffering from back and knee injuries. Pearce was just one part of the topsy-turvy season in Boston, though his reversal-of-fortune was perhaps the most extreme.
Pearce holds a career line of .254/.332/.440 while playing parts of 13 seasons for the Pirates, Orioles, Astros, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, notably appearing in uniform for all five teams in the AL East. On his potential retirement, Pearce said, “I would have liked to have gone out a little bit different. If this year was a little bit different. But that’s baseball. That’s why it’s the most beautiful game in the world.”
Injury Notes: Paxton, Hale, Hicks, Vlad Jr.
Yankees ace James Paxton exited his final start of the season on Friday after just one inning because of left glute tightness, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Paxton’s removal was a precautionary measure, and were it not for the looming postseason matchup with the Twins, Paxton likely could have pitched through what he described as “dull soreness.” The rotation is New York’s biggest question mark going into the playoffs, and Paxton is clearly a key piece. He’s 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA/3.87 FIP across 150 2/3 innings for the season, landing fairly close to career marks both in terms of efficiency and durability. Paxton’s status as the likely ALDS game one starter is not at present affected by his early departure on Friday, though he will certainly be monitored closely, and one would think it might affect the amount of leash given him in the ALDS opener. In other injury news heading into Saturday’s action…
- The Yankees PR department announced David Hale‘s reinstatement from the 60-day injured list. Hale, 32, had a strong start to the season going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA/3.30 FIP across 19 innings. He last pitched on July 26 against the Red Sox, finishing a strong month of July when he posted a 2.63 ERA. Hale has a part in two major storylines of the Yankees season, both as a resident of the overfull trainer’s room, and as one of the many unsung contributors to their 2019 success. Aaron Hicks, meanwhile, was moved to the 60-day injured list. It’s been mostly a lost season for Hicks, who nonetheless contributed 1.2 bWAR in 59 games when healthy via a .235/.325/.443 line with 12 home runs.
- Rookie fan favorite Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was scratched from today’s lineup with right knee soreness, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. If Vlad Jr. misses both of the Blue Jays final games, he’ll finish his rookie season with a .272/.339/.433 line across 123 games while notching 15 home runs and 69 RBIs. His 105 wRC+ is not perhaps the world-breaking debut that many expected, but in effort and showmanship, Vlad Jr. more than held his own. His performance at the home run derby will go down as the defining moment of his rookie season, where he showed the national audience more than enough to justify the hype of the past few seasons.