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Orioles Acquire Zach Eflin From Rays

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The Orioles have acquired right-hander Zach Eflin and cash considerations from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. Going to the Rays are outfielder Matthew Etzel, right-hander Jackson Baumeister and utility player Mac Horvath. Right-hander Vinny Nittoli has been designated for assignment by the O’s to get Eflin onto their roster.

Eflin, 30, has been a solid big league starter for many years, including his time with the Phillies and with the Rays as well. Since the start of 2018, he has allowed 4.01 earned runs per nine frames in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 44.8% ground ball rate in that time were both close to league averages and he also limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%. Here in 2024, he has a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts. His strikeout rate is down to 18.9% but he’s also lowered his walk rate to 2.8%.

About a month ago, it was reported that the Rays could be looking to make some starting pitchers available, even if they weren’t sellers in the classically understood definition. They had a rotation consisting of Eflin, Aaron Civale, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell and Ryan Pepiot, with Tyler Alexander on hand as a depth option. On top of that group, they had Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen each getting back to health after significant elbow surgeries.

As the overall group became healthier, the Rays were seemingly open to subtracting, as doing so could allow them to address other parts of their roster, save some money, bolster their farm system or some combination of those goals, and still keep a fairly healthy rotation for the stretch run. The most logical candidates for such a trade were Civale, Littell and Eflin as the three of them were slated for free agency after 2025. Civale was flipped to the Brewers a few weeks ago and replaced in the rotation by Baz, with Eflin now moving on as well.

The Baltimore rotation has been in the opposite position, as it’s been getting less healthy as the season has gone along. Each of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells required UCL surgery earlier this year, putting them out of action for the remainder of the campaign.

They still had a strong front two in the rotation with Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, but there’s been far less certainty behind them. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott were each given brief auditions but weren’t impressive. Dean Kremer has a serviceable 4.43 ERA but might be lucky to have that, considering his .227 batting average on balls in play. Albert Suárez has a 3.48 ERA but is a 34-year-old journeyman who is back in the majors for the first time since 2017. Cole Irvin has been moved between the rotation and bullpen due to inconsistent results. Bolstering that group is plenty sensible and it now looks much stronger with Eflin in it. Burnes is set to reach free agency after this season, so acquiring Eflin is also a notable move for Baltimore’s 2025 rotation.

In addition to the situation in Tampa’s rotation, an Eflin deal has seemed likely due to his contract. He signed a three-year pact with the Rays going into 2023, with the $40MM guarantee being backloaded. He was paid $11MM last year and is making that same amount here in 2024, with an $18MM salary for 2025. The Rays often trade their players before they reach free agency and slinking away from that large commitment in the final season of the deal always seemed possible.

The Rays are covering Eflin’s $1MM trade bonus but the O’s are otherwise absorbing the deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, both on X. That’s perhaps a notable development as the Orioles haven’t spent much money since their last competitive window closed. Per the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had nine-figure Opening Day payrolls from 2014 to 2018 but haven’t been back to that level since then.

Some of the light spending has been due to the club rebuilding in recent years but their return to contention hasn’t led to a loosening of the pursestrings. The O’s haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in early 2018 and the largest guarantee of any kind given out since then is the $13MM given to Craig Kimbrel on his one-year deal.

David Rubenstein purchased the franchise from the Angelos family earlier this year and it has been hoped that the ownership change would also lead to a change in spending habits. Perhaps the fact that the O’s are taking on an $18MM salary for next year is a sign that Baltimore will be operating differently from now on.

Turning to Tampa’s end of the deal, they are presumably saving at least a little bit of money while also adding three fresh prospects to their system. Baseball America just updated their list of the top 30 Orioles’ farmhands, with Horvath in the #13 slot and Baumeister at #18, through Etzel doesn’t crack the list.

Horwath, 23, was selected in the second round of last year’s draft. He’s hitting .232/.328/.417 in High-A this year for a 110 wRC+. He’s also stolen 26 bases while playing second base, third base and the outfield.

Baumeister, 22, was taken with a competitive balance pick last year, 63rd overall. He has made 18 starts at the High-A level this year with a 3.06 ERA and 29.5% strikeout rate, though a 14% walk rate. Etzel was a tenth-round pick last year and has slashed .289/.363/.445 for a 126 wRC+ between High-A and Double-A this year.

The O’s are 61-41 and tied for the best record in the American League but were heading into the stretch run with a flimsy rotation. They’ve strengthened it with a solid veteran, both for this year and next. They have subtracted from their farm system but it’s considered one of the best in the league and they held onto their top guys. Though the rotation is better than it was before this trade, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them add another arm. It’s also been reported that they could trade someone like Ryan Mountcastle or Cedric Mullins, though perhaps today’s trade of Austin Hays to the Phillies makes that less likely.

The Rays have added to their pool of young talent while shedding some payroll commitments, but still go into the final months of this season with a fairly solid rotation. Perhaps they are still hoping to compete but it also seems a more significant sell-off is in the cards. They traded outfielder Randy Arozarena to the Mariners yesterday and it’s possible that guys like Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adam, Pete Fairbanks and others could be available in the coming days.

Prior to this trade, Eflin was also connected to clubs like the Astros, Atlanta and the Cardinals. Those clubs will now have to look elsewhere for rotation upgrades in the coming days. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal and others have been in rumors with varying degrees of availability.

Nittoli was just added to Baltimore’s roster less than two weeks ago and they will now have to either trade him or put him on waivers in the coming days. He has a 1.50 ERA in 12 big league innings this year between the O’s and the A’s.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that the O’s would be getting Eflin. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the prospects going back to the Rays on X. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com relayed Nittoli’s DFA on X.

Orioles, Phillies Swap Austin Hays For Seranthony Dominguez

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The Orioles announced Friday that they’ve traded outfielder Austin Hays to the Phillies in exchange for right-hander Seranthony Dominguez and outfielder Cristian Pache. Baltimore is designating righty Levi Stoudt for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot, the team announced. The Phillies filled their open roster spot by reinstating right-hander Michael Rucker from the 60-day injured list.

It’s a rare swap of major leaguers between a pair of World Series hopefuls. Hays will give the Phillies a more impactful right-handed bat in their outfield mix than they had in the glove-first Pache. Hays isn’t having his best season but was a 2023 All-Star and has pounded left-handed pitching both in 2024 and throughout his career. Dominguez, similarly, is having a down season but sports a much better track record. He’s still a hard-throwing reliever with high-leverage experience and has at times operated as the Phillies’ closer.

Hays, 29, is hitting .255/.316/.395 this season in 175 plate appearances. He missed nearly a month with a calf strain earlier this season, and it’s certainly possible that injury impacted his production; Hays hit just .111/.200/.111 in 50 trips to the plate prior to that IL stint but has returned with an excellent .313/.363/.509 slash in 125 subsequent plate appearances.

That slash is perhaps partially attributable to the fact that Hays has been platooned more than in seasons past, thanks to the emergence of lefty-hitting outfielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad in Baltimore. Between that pair, center fielder Cedric Mullins, right fielder Anthony Santander and first basemen/designated hitters Ryan O’Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle, the O’s are dealing from a wealth of corner depth in this swap. Hays has been exclusively a corner outfielder this year and hasn’t played center field with any regularity since 2020.

Prior to this season’s rough start (and the emergence of those young top prospects), Hays has been a fixture in the Baltimore outfield. The former third-round pick was a top-100 prospect himself and from 2019-23 tallied 1886 plate appearances with a strong .264/.317/.441 batting line (109 wRC+). Hays doesn’t walk much (career 5.9%) but strikes out at a 21.5% clip that’s slightly below league-average. He’s typically posted average or better grades in left field, though his marks this season are down across the board. Again, however, that’s not necessarily a surprise for an outfielder who’s battled a lower-leg injury that impacted his speed and mobility.

Hays will give the Phillies a productive platoon partner to pair with lefty-swinging Brandon Marsh in left field. Both Marsh and Hays (in a pinch) can handle center field as well, though it’s likely that defensive standout Johan Rojas will continue to patrol that position regularly — barring an additional outfield acquisition from president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Hays has bludgeoned lefties at a .328/.394/.500 clip in 72 plate appearances this year and touts a lifetime .272/.328/.463 output against southpaws.

The Phillies will be able to control Hays through the 2025 season if they choose, though he’d be an expensive part-time player if they plan to platoon him all season in 2025. He’s earning $6.3MM this year in his second arbitration season and will be due one final raise this winter — likely to a number north of $8MM — before qualifying as a free agent in the 2025-26 offseason.

Turning to the Orioles’ end of the deal, they’ll first and foremost add an experienced reliever in the form of the 29-year-old Dominguez. He’s been tagged for a 4.75 ERA this year in 36 innings but entered the 2024 campaign with a career 3.31 earned run average, 27 saves and 52 holds. Dominguez has been uncharacteristically homer-prone this year and thus struggled to strand runners, but his velocity (97.5 mph average fastball), strikeout rate (25.5%) and walk rate (7.6%) all remain strong. This year’s walk rate is actually a career-low, and Dominguez’s 25.5% strikeout rate isn’t terribly far off the 27.5% mark he carried into the season.

As is often the case with relievers, Dominguez’s pedestrian earned run average is skewed by a small number of meltdowns. He’s been tagged for four earned runs on two separate occasions this season, accounting for 42% of his earned runs in those two trips to the mound (just 5.2% of his total appearances).

That clearly doesn’t make the bottom-line results any more palatable, but it’s preferable to have a reliever who’s had a handful of awful outings as opposed to one who’s prone to giving up a run or two every other time out. With Craig Kimbrel currently in a rough patch and Danny Coulombe on the 60-day injured list, Dominguez could find himself in some leverage situations.

Like Hays, Dominguez can be controlled through the 2025 season — but the choice is at the team’s discretion. He’s playing out the second season of a two-year, $7.25MM contract that covered his final two arbitration seasons and includes a club option for what would’ve been his first free-agent year. The O’s will hold an $8MM club option over Dominguez that comes with a $500K buyout — effectively rendering it a net $7.5MM decision. If he can rebound to his prior form following the swap, that could prove to be a palatable price point even for what’s typically been a frugal Orioles club (albeit under their now-former ownership).

Baltimore will also add Pache to its bench mix. It’s an offensive downgrade, as the 25-year-old is hitting only .202/.288/.269 in 118 plate appearances and carries a .179/.243/.272 slash in parts of five MLB seasons. That said, Pache is a lights-out defender who’s been credited with a dozen Defensive Runs Saved and 16 Outs Above Average in just 1334 career innings in the outfield. He’s a plus-plus defender in center field, offering the O’s a more true fourth outfielder than Hays did, but he can certainly play strong corner defense as well.

Pache is out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent to the minors without first being designated for assignment and exposed to waivers. As such, he’ll need to stick on Baltimore’s roster. For a team that’s a near-lock to make the postseason, this type of outfielder — light hitting, plus defense, good speed — is a particularly useful asset.

Pache is earning just north of the league minimum this season. Dominguez is being paid $4.25MM and has the $500K buyout on his option. The swap is close to cash-neutral, but the Phillies will be taking on about $297K in additional payroll. When factoring in their luxury tax status, the trade will cost them about $481K overall.

As a result of this swap, the 26-year-old Stoudt will  be designated for assignment for the third time this season. He’s bounced from the Reds, to the Mariners (his original organization), to the Orioles via a series of waiver claims. Stoudt allowed 11 runs in 10 1/3 innings during last year’s MLB debut with Cincinnati. He was one of four players the Mariners sent to the Reds in the Luis Castillo blockbuster two seasons ago.

A former third-round pick, Stoudt ranked among the top 20 prospects in both the Mariners’ and Reds’ systems from 2021-23. He’s worked primarily as a starter in the minors, but the O’s put him in their Double-A bullpen after claiming him. He’s posted a 4.26 ERA in 12 2/3 innings in that role but also walked 12.1% of his opponents, continuing some longstanding command issues. The Orioles can trade Stoudt until Tuesday’s deadline. Failing that, he’ll likely be placed on outright waivers.

Orioles Have Reportedly Shown Interest In Jameson Taillon

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The Orioles are among the teams that have expressed some interest in Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, reports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale connected two other AL East teams — the Yankees and Red Sox — to Taillon over the weekend.

Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer admitted recently that the front office was prioritizing next season and beyond in its deadline dealings. That more or less rules them out of the bidding on impending free agents and suggests they’re open to offers on their rentals. It doesn’t mean they’re planning to aggressively market players under contract or team control beyond this season.

Taillon is under contract through 2026. The Cubs could certainly hold him even if they’re conceding it’s unlikely they’ll make a playoff run this season. The veteran righty is set to make $18MM in each of the next two years, though, so Chicago could prefer to offload that commitment and look to reallocate the money to other areas of the roster next offseason.

Getting out from the Taillon contract seemed unlikely just a few months ago. His first season in the Windy City wasn’t great, as he struggled to a 4.84 earned run average through 154 1/3 innings. His run prevention has improved here in 2024, with his ERA down to 2.96.

His underlying rate stats haven’t changed as drastically, however. He had a 21.4% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate last year, with those figures at 19.1% and 5.1% in 2024. He’s allowed fewer home runs and his batting average on balls in play has dropped from .292 to .275, helping his strand rate climb from 64.6% to 76.4%. FIP, which credits pitchers for home runs or the lack thereof, has Taillon going from last year’s 4.61 to this year’s 3.77. But SIERA, which normalizes home run rate, has given Taillon a lesser shift from last year’s 4.34 to this year’s 4.23.

Whether Taillon has significant changed from last year or not, he has a track record of being a decent rotation stalwart. He now has over 1,000 innings in his career with a 3.90 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 42.3% ground ball rate.

The Cubs could hang onto him for the remainder of that contract but there’s also logic in making him available, as the long-term rotation picture still looks good even without Taillon in it. They could go into next season with Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks in four spots, with guys like Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown and Caleb Kilian in the mix as well. Cade Horton, the club’s top prospect, is current dealing with a subscapularis strain but could be back on the mound later this year and in line for his major league debut. Prospects like Brandon Birdsell and Connor Noland have also reached the Triple-A level.

For the O’s, they are tied with the Guardians for the best record in the American League despite some rotation challenges. Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells all required season-ending UCL surgery earlier this year, knocking three arms out of Baltimore’s rotation mix.

Currently, they have Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez as the core four in their rotation. Burnes and Rodriguez make for a solid one-two but Kremer is mostly a back-end guy. Suárez is having a nice season with a 3.48 ERA, but he’s a 34-year-old journeyman in the big leagues for the first time since 2017. They’ve given brief looks to prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott without much success.

Adding to that group should be an obvious target for Baltimore. They’ve also been connected to a high-upside option in Garrett Crochet but it’s fair to wonder if that’s possible or likely. It’s also possible to see both Crochet and Taillon co-existing in this rotation next to Burnes and Rodriguez.

Speaking of Burnes, he’s an impending free agent, which will open a massive hole in next year’s rotation. General manager Mike Elias has admitted that adding controllable starting pitching would make sense for the club, perhaps making the extra two seasons on Taillon’s deal part of the appeal for them. Levine’s report adds that Taillon’s contract allows him to block trades to ten teams, but it’s not known which teams are on that list.

Orioles Release Jonathan Heasley

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July 25: The Orioles announced that Heasley has been released. Per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com on X, Heasley hasn’t pitched lately due to right shoulder inflammation. Since injured players can’t be put on outright waivers, the O’s have gone the release route instead.

July 24: The Orioles announced that they have selected the contract of pitching prospect Chayce McDermott, a move that was reported last night. In corresponding moves, they optioned right-hander Bryan Baker and designated right-hander Jonathan Heasley for assignment.

Heasley, 27, was acquired from the Royals in an offseason trade. He has spent most of this season on optional assignment, making just four appearances at the big league level. He allowed ten earned runs in 5 1/3 major league innings, giving him an unsightly 16.88 earned run average. But that’s a tiny sample size and a very wonky one at that, as he allowed a .421 batting average on balls in play and stranded just 26.8% of baserunners, both of which are far to the unlucky side.

His Triple-A work has been far better this year, as he has 30 2/3 innings at that level with a 2.64 ERA, 21.8% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate. and 40.9% ground ball rate. Though that’s a decent performance, his time on the O’s roster may have been nearing an end regardless. He’s in his final option season and will therefore be out of options next year.

That would make it harder for the O’s to keep him around in the long term. Though his major league struggles earlier this year were brief, they added to a fairly unimpressive track record in the bigs. He now has a 5.89 ERA in 139 major league innings dating back to his 2021 debut.

Baltimore will now have a week to trade Heasley or pass him through waivers, though the waiver process itself takes 48 hours, leaving five days to explore any possible trade interest. He had a bit of prospect pedigree a few years ago, with Baseball America ranking him #13 in the Royals’ system going into 2022. That was on the heels of Heasley tossing 105 1/3 Double-A innings in 2021 with a 3.33 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate.

But he then posted a 6.11 ERA at the Triple-A level over 2022 and 2023 and got squeezed off Kansas City’s roster. He’s been better at the higher levels of the minors this year but still hasn’t found success in the majors. If any club acquires him, they would have the rest of this year to send him to the minors. He also has plenty of potential club control with his service time count just over the one-year mark.

Orioles’ Jorge Mateo Suffers Left Elbow Subluxation; Connor Norby To See Regular Time At Second Base

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The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve placed infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo on the 10-day injured list due to a subluxation (i.e. partial dislocation) of his left elbow. Fellow infielder/outfielder Connor Norby is up from Triple-A Norfolk in his place. Baltimore also optioned righty Chayce McDermott to Norfolk following last night’s MLB debut and recalled righty Bryan Baker, adding a fresh arm to the bullpen.

Mateo suffered the injury on Tuesday in a collision with shortstop Gunnar Henderson when both infielders slid for an up-the-middle grounder (video link). It’s not clear yet how long he’ll be sidelined. Manager Brandon Hyde told the Baltimore beat that Mateo will “miss some time,” but there’s still enough swelling to obfuscate the full recovery picture (link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun). While Mateo didn’t require immediate surgery, his arm was placed in a cast on Tuesday. He’ll eventually receive a second opinion, Weyrich tweets, and Hyde added that it’s “too soon” to tell whether Mateo will need surgery at some point.

With Mateo out for an indefinite period, Norby will “get some regular playing time” at second base, Hyde revealed. It’s a notable development both in the sense that Norby has ranked among the system’s best prospects since he was selected in the second round of the 2021 draft and in the sense that Norby has been a oft-speculated trade candidate as the O’s look to upgrade their pitching staff. The Orioles possess enough infield depth that they could still trade Norby — Jordan Westburg and Ramon Urias can both play second base, and top prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo are looming in the upper minors — but that outcome seems less likely now that he’s ticketed for a near-everyday role in the big leagues.

Mateo, 29, has been the Orioles’ primary second baseman this season. He’s batted just .229/.267/.401 on the year. That’s 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but Mateo has provided modest pop (five homers, .172 ISO) and plenty of value on the basepaths (13-for-15 in steals). Defensive metrics feel he’s been roughly average with the glove — his penchant for highlight-reel plays not withstanding.

With what seems like a notable absence and even a potential for surgery on the table, Mateo’s outlook in Baltimore becomes cloudy. He’s due for one more arbitration raise this offseason and would reach free agency following the 2025 campaign. Given the possibility of a long layoff, the team’s enviable infield depth and the fact that Mateo is owed a raise on a $2.7MM salary, he could again emerge as an offseason trade candidate or non-tender candidate, depending on the ultimate prognosis for his injury.

The 24-year-old Norby isn’t likely to be a defensive upgrade but can be reasonably expected to provide a boost to an already potent lineup. He’s hitting .297/.389/.519 in Norfolk (133 wRC+) with 16 home runs, 21 doubles, a triple, 13 steals (in 16 tries) and a stout 12.5% walk rate. Norby’s 27.7% strikeout rate with the Tides is a red flag, but punchouts haven’t been a long-running problem for the East Carolina University product.

Norby made his big league debut earlier this season, appearing in four games and going 3-for-14 with a home run before being sent back down. He can’t accrue a full year of service in 2024, meaning he’ll still be under club control for another six full seasons. He’s in the first of his three minor league option years and won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2027-28 offseason at the earliest.

MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Orioles Willing To Trade Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins

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The Orioles will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch ahead of the trade deadline. They currently boast a one-game lead over the Guardians for the best record in the American League and a 1.5-game lead over the Yankees for first place in the AL East. Thus, they fit the criteria for major buyers; the O’s are undeniably one of the best teams in baseball, but they still have things worth fighting for down the stretch. What’s more, prospect evaluators widely agree that Baltimore has one of the deepest and most talented farm systems in the game, in addition to a logjam of talented young players on the major league roster. They should be able to outbid just about anyone to land their ideal trade targets in the coming days.

Yet, precisely because of all that talent, the Orioles might also be sellers at the deadline. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Baltimore is willing to discuss trades for Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins, a pair of veterans who have been with this team since it was one of the worst in baseball. It’s rare to see a team with World Series aspirations trade proven, cost-controlled players at the deadline, but the Orioles can afford to part with Mountcastle and Mullins without compromising anything. Indeed, they might get even stronger by clearing up room on a crowded roster.

It wasn’t so long ago that Mullins was one of Baltimore’s best players. He earned down-ballot MVP votes during a career year in 2021 and followed that up with a solid all-around season in 2022. However, his offensive and defensive numbers both took a turn for the worse in 2023, and that trend has continued into 2024, his age-29 season. Mullins is batting .214 with a 79 wRC+. Despite his perfect fielding percentage, he has put up just 1 OAA (he had six last year and nine the year before). In addition, his arm strength has fallen below average, according to Statcast. Just about the only area where Mullins has provided above-average production is on the bases. He has 16 steals and ranks among the top 15 AL players in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric (BsR).

It might seem far too soon for the Orioles to give up on a 29-year-old center fielder with MVP votes in his past, but given the sheer amount of talented outfielders at Baltimore’s disposal, the team can hardly afford to keep giving so much playing time to a player who is providing so little. Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad all deserve regular playing time, while Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby are a couple of promising options at Triple-A. There aren’t a ton of center fielders in that mix, but Cowser has played phenomenal defense in left this season; he could slide over to center and open up his corner spot for a bigger bat.

Mountcastle, 27, is having a perfectly serviceable season, with 12 home runs and a 109 wRC+. Those aren’t bad numbers, by any means, but contending teams generally have higher expectations at first base, and Mountcastle’s 111 wRC+ over the past four seasons doesn’t exactly suggest that better days are ahead. Thus, if Mountcastle is preventing players like Kjerstad, and eventually Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo, from getting regular playing time, he might be doing more harm than good for the Orioles.

Still, considering his consistently above-average offensive performance in all five seasons of his big league career, Mountcastle would be a welcome addition to plenty of contending teams. With All-Star first basemen Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Yandy Díaz unlikely to be dealt, Mountcastle, under team control through 2026, could be an interesting (and cheaper) alternative for a team in need of a right-handed bat. Meanwhile, Mullins could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for a team that thinks it can help him rediscover his All-Star form. He is not eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season.

The Orioles certainly don’t have to trade either Mountcastle or Mullins, and, perhaps they won’t unless GM Mike Elias receives an overwhelming offer. However, trading one or both of the veterans could allow the O’s to recoup some of the young talent they will part with in other deadline trades. While neither player will command a massive return, Baltimore might still prefer to swap them for prospects rather than continue to run them out in place of better options or, eventually, stash them on the bench.

Orioles To Select Chayce McDermott

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The Orioles are calling up pitching prospect Chayce McDermott to start tomorrow’s game in Miami, manager Brandon Hyde informed the team’s beat (X link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). The O’s need to add him to the 40-man roster.

It’s the first MLB call for McDermott, who turns 26 next month. The Astros took him in the fourth round of the 2021 draft out of Ball State. Houston shipped him to Baltimore as part of the three-team Trey Mancini deal the following summer. The 6’3″ righty has since developed into one of the O’s more talented minor league arms. Baseball America ranked him as the #6 prospect in the Baltimore system coming into this season.

McDermott had combined for a 3.10 ERA while striking out nearly 31% of batters faced at the top two minor league levels a year ago. He has spent all of this season with Triple-A Norfolk, working to a 3.96 earned run average across 20 outings. He easily leads all Triple-A pitchers with 129 strikeouts, fanning nearly a third of opponents.

BA credits McDermott with a mid-90s fastball that plays especially well at the top of the strike zone. That’s the best offering in a five-pitch mix. Whether McDermott sticks as a starter will be largely dependent on his command. He has had a hard time finding the strike zone this year, walking more than 13% of opponents. Free passes have been an issue throughout his minor league career and could point to an eventual bullpen role.

McDermott’s first look comes from the rotation, though it might not be more than a spot start. Baltimore could add a starter to slot in behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez before next Tuesday’s deadline. The O’s could then option McDermott back to Norfolk or give him an opportunity to carve out a bullpen role for the stretch run. They had needed to add him to the 40-man roster by next offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Their 40-man is at capacity and they don’t have any candidates for a move to the 60-day injured list, so they’re likely to designate someone for assignment tomorrow.

Krall: Reds Have Not Declared Themselves Sellers

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July 23: Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pushed back on Morosi’s report, telling Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he’s had conversations with the majority of the league but has “not gone down one road that specific.”

Krall’s comments came on the heels of a Cincinnati victory over Atlanta last night. That win kept the Reds within four games of a Wild Card spot in the National League, albeit in an extraordinarily tightly bunched race. Though they’re only four games back, the Reds would need to vault past the Giants, Cubs, D-backs, Padres, Pirates and one of the Mets or Cardinals in order to move into Wild Card position. The Cubs are actually a half-game up on the Reds in the standings, and their own president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, publicly conceded just last night that his focus will be on 2025 and beyond.

The next few days will likely be pivotal for the Reds as they chart their course for the remainder of the season. They have two games left against the Braves, followed by three road games against the Rays. They’ll host the Cubs on the evening of July 29 — their final game before the July 30 deadline.

July 21: Back in early July, when the Reds were 41-45 and just a few games out of the NL Wild Card race, club GM Brad Meador suggested that the club was not yet ready to commit to a strategy for this year’s trade deadline. Flash forward to today, and fallen to a record of 47-53 after getting swept by the Nationals coming out of the All-Star break. It appears that recent performance may have been enough for the club to officially set course, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the club has begun to inform rival clubs that they are willing to part with players on expiring contracts.

It’s hardly a surprise that Cincinnati would limit any sell-off to rental pieces. After all, the club has an exciting core of young talent led by star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and right-hander Hunter Greene that figures to keep the Reds in the playoff conversation in the coming years, and this season has been complicated by injuries to key pieces such as Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, TJ Friedl, Brandon Williamson, and Graham Ashcraft. By maintaining that core of players as well as veteran pieces under longer-term control such as Jonathan India and Jeimer Candelario, the Reds can remain fairly well positioned to load back up for the 2025 campaign this winter and make another attempt at returning to contention.

The Reds’ list of pending free agents is a relatively short one, but it nonetheless has some interesting names. Right-hander Frankie Montas, whose $20MM mutual option for 2025 is all but certain to be declined, is perhaps the player with the most name recognition that the club could look to move. Righty Nick Martinez has a $12MM player option for 2025 and could also be made available, while outfielder Austin Slater (who the Reds acquired from San Francisco just two weeks ago), lefty Justin Wilson, and right-handers Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims will each see their contracts run out at season’s end.

According to Morosi, the Orioles are among the clubs to have interest in Cincinnati’s rental pitchers, including Montas and Martinez. The fit between Baltimore and either of those two pieces is somewhat obvious, as the Orioles have lost starters Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to season-ending surgery this year. That’s left them to put together a patchwork rotation filled out by Dean Kremer and Albert Suarez behind front-end duo Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. At least one more playoff-caliber starter would make plenty of sense for the Orioles, and they would likely benefit from adding additional depth beyond that as well.

Whether Montas, 31, constitutes a playoff-caliber starter at this point in his career is up for debate. The righty has struggled badly with the Reds in 89 innings (18 starts) this year, posting a 4.85 ERA and 5.04 FIP which are both roughly 15% worse than league average. While Montas has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of his 18 starts this year, blow-up starts have been a fairly frequent occurrence for the righty, including a combined 12 runs allowed in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Nationals and Rockies.

Bleak as his recent performance has been, Montas isn’t far removed from a stretch of mid-rotation success with the A’s from 2018 to 2022 where he posted 3.70 ERA and 3.61 FIP in 99 appearances. With that being said, it can’t be ignored that Montas underwent shoulder surgery back in February of last year. Since his return from going under the knife, his peripherals are those of a completely different pitcher. He’s struck out just 18.7% of batters faced after entering 2023 with a career 24.3% strikeout rate, and after allowing free passes to just 7.8% of opponents through the end of the 2022 season he’s watched his walk rate balloon to 10% since undergoing surgery. Even with those flaws, however, Montas’s track record as a quality mid-rotation arm could still certainly attract interest from pitching-hungry suitors.

Martinez, however, could prove to be the better fit for the Orioles’ needs. The right-hander has found a niche as one of the best swingmen in the game over the past three seasons with San Diego and Cincinnati, and this season the 33-year-old boasts a solid 3.88 ERA with an even stronger 3.15 FIP. While his 18.9% walk rate isn’t anything to write home about, he’s limited walks to a clip of just 3% this year while surrendering just six home runs in 72 innings of work. Martinez has been used primarily in relief this year, although he made five starts for the Reds early in the season and demonstrated the ability to move between the rotation and bullpen with relative ease during his time in San Diego. The veteran righty would offer the Orioles pitching depth for both the bullpen and rotation down the stretch, possibly working out of the rotation for the remainder of the regular season before moving into the bullpen during the playoffs.

Of course, Baltimore is far from the only club that could be interesting in the Reds’ available rentals. The Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, and Padres are among the other teams known to be in the market for starting pitching, while virtually every contender is typically on the prowl for rental bullpen help this time of year and could have interest in either Martinez in a relief role or a rental bullpen arm like Wilson, Farmer, or Sims.

The Orioles’ Oft-Overlooked Outfielder

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The Orioles are as deep as any team in baseball when it comes to young position players. As the trade deadline approaches, that’s led to interminable speculation on top prospects like Heston Kjerstad, Connor Norby, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo — highly touted prospects who’ve yet to solidify themselves as one of Baltimore’s long-term pillars. But for all the understandable focus on that slate of top-100 talents, the O’s have more to offer. Perhaps chief among the team’s controllable change-of-scenery candidates is outfielder Kyle Stowers. Manager Brandon Hyde alluded to the possibility in chatting with the Baltimore beat this weekend (link via Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun).

“Kyle’s going to get a chance to be an everyday Major League player here at some point, either with us or with somebody else. Who knows?” Hyde said when discussing the 26-year-old outfielder and the positive impression he’s made on his manager this season. “You never know what this game is gonna bring, but he’s putting himself in great position.”

Stowers has indeed put himself in a position to be either quite useful to the Orioles or another club before long. There’s plenty of smoke and mirrors at play with his current .306 batting average and .500 slugging percentage, as those gaudy numbers have come in a sample of just 37 plate appearances and are propped up by an unsustainable .435 average on balls in play. Meanwhile, Stowers has fanned 13 times (35.1%) without taking a walk. In parts of three MLB seasons (2022-24), he’s taken 168 plate appearances and batted .229/.274/.369. He’s fanned at a 32.1% clip and walked in 4.8% of those plate appearances.

It’s not a particularly appealing batting line on the whole, but it’s come across five separate stints (dating back to his Aug. 2022 MLB debut) and with no consistent playing time. When Stowers, a 2019 second-round pick, has received steady playing time at the Triple-A level, he’s generally been a productive hitter. The lefty-swinging slugger carries a career .252/.350/.518 batting line with 56 homers, 55 doubles, five triples and seven steals in 1029 plate appearances with Baltimore’s top affiliate in Norfolk. Stowers has been between 12% and 30% better than average at the plate in each of his four seasons with the Tides, by measure of wRC+.

Defensively, he’s seen time at all three positions but logged most of his time in right field. Baseball America ranked him ninth among O’s prospects last year (and seventh the year prior), touting his above-average speed, plus power and plus arm. Stowers has long had some strikeout issues and an aggressive approach at the plate, but he’s also walked in a hearty 11.8% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He hits right-handed pitching better than lefties, as one would expect from a slugging lefty bat, but Stowers has posted an OPS between .781 and 1.018 versus lefties in each of the past four seasons (minors and majors combined). He might never be a star, but to this point in his career, the Stanford product has looked like he could be more than the prototypical platoon slugger with minimal defensive value.

With another 51 days of service this year, Stowers would reach a full season of MLB service time, thus putting him on pace for arbitration in the 2026-27 offseason and free agency in the 2029-30 offseason. If he spends fewer than 51 days on a big league roster or injured list, that timeline to free agency would be pushed back a year. However, he’d be a very likely Super Two candidate at that point, so his arbitration timeline would remain the same — he’d just be eligible four times rather than three before free agency.

Stowers is the type of interesting trade candidate who could appeal to both contending and non-contending teams alike. He’s had a decent amount of success in Triple-A, has at least a half decade of control remaining (plus a minor league option beyond the current season), and has a limited path to an everyday role with his current club. He’d appeal to a rebuilding club as a possible return for a trade chip or perhaps to a win-now club looking for an affordable upside play in the outfield corners. Both Meyer and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko have suggested recently that Stowers could be moved (likely for pitching).

It’s of course possible that he could be a factor for the Orioles themselves in future seasons, as Anthony Santander is a free agent this winter, while Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins could end up as trade or non-tender candidates themselves. However, even if the O’s move on from the veteran trio of Santander, Hays and Mullins before Opening Day 2025, they’ll still have Colton Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo and Norby in the outfield mix. Both Norby and Mayo have primarily been infielders, but Baltimore’s infield is quite crowded — particularly if Jackson Holliday eventually seizes a spot — which could push Norby to left field and/or push Mayo to right field.

It’s all a “good problem to have,” but Stowers is 26 (27 in January) and down to one option year beyond the current campaign. As Hyde said, it shouldn’t come as a surprise one way or another if he’s getting a full look sooner than later. Just for fun, let’s see what MLBTR readers think about Stowers’ future with a poll:

What will the Orioles do with Kyle Stowers?
Trade him before July 30 77.18% (2,232 votes)
Keep him -- he's part of the long-term outfield in Baltimore. 13.24% (383 votes)
Trade him this offseason 9.58% (277 votes)
Total Votes: 2,892
Show all

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