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Orioles To Call Up Jackson Holliday

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The Orioles announced a flurry of roster moves in the aftermath of today’s trade deadline this evening. The club has selected the contract of second baseman Terrin Vavra and placed infielder Jorge Mateo on the 60-day injured list, while left-hander Matt Krook was designated for assignment. Perhaps most notable among this flurry of roster moves is a report from Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner that top prospect Jackson Holliday is set to join the team in Baltimore, although Kostka notes it’s not yet clear whether or not he’ll be formally added to the roster just yet.

Holliday, 20, was the first overall pick in the 2022 draft and entered the 2024 season as the consensus top prospect in baseball. He made his MLB debut back in April but looked overmatched in the majors at the time, slashing just .059/.111/.059 in 36 trips to the plate across ten games before returning to Triple-A. Holliday hit .252/.418/.429 over his next 40 games in his return to the minors, a solid overall slash line but a far cry from what Holliday had done in the past. His production in early June was especially troubling, as he hit just .212 with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a .394 slugging percentage in ten games before being placed on the minor league IL due to what the club referred to at the time as a “barking” shoulder.

Fortunately, the young phenom returned to action after just two weeks and has looked more like himself at the plate, slashing an excellent .273/.426/.507 in 101 trips to the plate since coming off the shelf. Holliday was initially restricted to DH-only duties upon his return but has gradually begun to mix in time on the infield dirt in recent days, with six of his past nine games coming at either second base or shortstop. Even if the Orioles don’t yet feel Holliday is ready for everyday reps in the field, a deep mix of infield talent that also includes Ramon Urias and Vavra should allow them to offer Holliday as much rest as he needs while still allowing him to be their regular second baseman.

Should Holliday prove to be ready for the show upon his return to the club’s roster, it will help to assuage concerns regarding how the Orioles will make up for the losses of Mateo and Connor Norby, the latter of whom was shipped alongside Kyle Stowers to Miami in exchange for lefty Trevor Rogers earlier today. Mateo has been a serviceable but unspectacular second baseman for Baltimore this year, slashing .229/.267/.401 with an 86 wRC+ and middling defensive numbers and 13 stolen bases in 68 games for the club this year. A useful utility player with the ability to backup every spot on the diamond except for first base and catcher, the Orioles are sure to miss Mateo even as he was likely to be pushed out of the regular lineup by Holliday regardless of the left elbow subluxation that figures to keep him sidelined until at least late September.

Also helping to fill the void up the middle is Vavra, who missed most of the 2024 season due to a torn labrum in his right shoulder and was outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster back in November. He’s remained with the club in the minors since then and sports a respectable .269/.377/.423 slash line in 123 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level since returning from injury. Vavra struggled badly prior to his surgery last year but in 2022 posted a solid 99 wRC+ in 103 trips to the plate with the Orioles. Vavra offers the club an additional left-handed bat for their bench mix capable of playing both outfield corners as well as second and third base.

As for Krook, the lefty has pitched just one inning in the majors since the club acquired him from the Yankees back in February to act as optionable bullpen depth from the left side. That brief appearance did not go well, as he allowed three runs (two earned) on a walk and home run while striking out two in his lone appearance. Meanwhile, his results at Triple-A have been somewhat middling as he’s pitched to a 4.11 ERA in 35 innings at the level with a strong 27% strikeout rate that’s held back by his massive 16.4% walk rate. The Orioles will now have one week to attempt to pass Krook through waivers. If he goes unclaimed, the Orioles will have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues to act as non-roster depth.

Orioles Designate Cole Irvin For Assignment

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The Orioles announced they’ve designated left-hander Cole Irvin for assignment. Baltimore recalled catcher Blake Hunt for his major league debut to take the vacated active roster spot.

Irvin, 30, was a fifth-round pick by the Phillies back in 2016 but struggled badly upon making his big league debut in 2019. He posted a 6.75 ERA and 5.09 FIP in 45 1/3 innings of work with the Phillies in parts of two seasons before being dealt to the A’s in a cash deal prior to the start of the 2021 season. Despite being used primarily out of the bullpen in Philadelphia, the A’s moved him to the rotation where he managed to fashion himself into a reliable, innings-eating back-of-the-rotation arm. Between his two seasons in Oakland, only 12 pitchers threw more innings than his 359 1/3 frames of work as he pitched to a 4.11 ERA (95 ERA+) with a 4.25 FIP across 62 starts for the A’s. Irvin posted a lackluster 16.8% strikeout rate during his time with the A’s but limited walks to a measly 5.2% clip.

That combination of volume and steady (if uninspiring) production made Irvin a fairly attractive trade candidate during the 2022-23 offseason as the A’s continued to tear down amid a rebuild that began the previous winter, particularly given that he was still set to make a league-minimum salary in 2023. Enter the Orioles, who were keeping payroll low as they cautiously stepped towards contention following a surprise 83-79 showing in 2022 and jumped at the chance to acquire the southpaw in a deal where they shipped infield prospect Darell Hernaiz to Oakland in exchange for Irvin and pitching prospect Kyle Virbitsky.

Unfortunately, Irvin has not been the steady source of innings the Orioles were surely hoping they’d be acquiring when they landed him. His career in Baltimore got off to a disastrous start as he pitched to a 10.66 ERA in three April starts before being optioned down to the Triple-A level. He was called back up to the big leagues in mid-June to take on a swing role, acting as a multi-inning reliever and spot starter for the remainder of the season after being squeezed out of the rotation picture by the emergence of youngsters like Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells. He performed solidly enough in that role, with a 3.22 ERA and 4.25 FIP in his final 64 1/3 innings of work last year, that the Orioles were willing to retain him through his first year of arbitration eligibility on a $2MM salary to act as rotation depth.

The decision to keep Irvin in the fold proved to be a prescient one as the Orioles saw their rotation depth immediately tested this year by early-season injuries to Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez that were further compounded by John Means’ continued rehab from Tommy John surgery. Irvin’s early season performance merited his spot in the rotation mix for the most part, as he pitched to a solid 2.84 ERA and 3.47 FIP in ten appearance (eight starts) over the season’s first two months. That changed when the calendar flipped to June, however, as Irvin struggled to a 6.30 ERA with a 5.22 FIP in six starts before getting demoted to the bullpen in early July. His struggles only deepened upon moving to a multi-inning relief role as he posted a sky-high ERA of 9.00 in 14 July innings.

Between Irvin’s rapidly deteriorating performance and the club’s acquisitions of starters Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers prior to today’s trade deadline, the Orioles evidently felt they had no spot for Irvin (who is out of options) on their active roster going forward. Now that he’s been designated for assignment, the club will have seven days to attempt to pass him through waivers. Any club could pick Irvin up for the price of paying the remainder of his contract once he’s on the waiver wire, and it’s certainly possible a club looking for innings in the aftermath of today’s deadline could do so. Should Irvin clear waivers, he’d have the opportunity to reject an outright assignment but would forgo the remainder of his salary in doing so, giving him strong incentive to accept and assignment to the minors and remain with the Orioles as non-roster depth in the event he clears waivers.

As for Hunt, the 25-year-old backstop was acquired by the Orioles in the trade that sent right-hander Mike Baumann to Seattle earlier this year. Hunt has struggled to a .149/.192/.297 slash line in 20 games at the Triple-A level for the club’s Norfolk affiliate since the trade but figures to offer the club additional catching depth after veteran backup catcher James McCann suffered a broken nose during a game against the Blue Jays yesterday. Hunt’s first appearance with the Orioles will be his major league debut.

Orioles To Acquire Gregory Soto

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The Phillies traded reliever Gregory Soto to the Orioles, reports Jim Salisbury (on X). Pitching prospect Seth Johnson is going to Philadelphia, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (X link). Pitching prospect Moises Chace is also going to the Phils, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com (on X).

Soto, a 29-year-old lefty, has a 4.08 ERA, 26.7 K%, 12.1 BB%, and 50% groundball rate in 35 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year.  Manager Rob Thomson has moved Soto down the bullpen depth chart in recent months, well before the club added Carlos Estevez and Tanner Banks in recent trades.  Still, Soto averages 98.4 miles per hour on his fastball and is under team control next year as an arbitration eligible player.  He’s earning a decent salary of $5MM on the season.  Soto, who came up with the Tigers, joined the Phillies in a January 2023 trade.

With the Phillies’ CBT payroll sitting right around the second luxury tax threshold of $257MM, perhaps he was a luxury in a bullpen with Jeff Hoffman, , Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, and Estevez.

Just four days ago, the Phillies shipped reliever Seranthony Dominguez to the Orioles for outfielder Austin Hays.  It’s been an interesting pair of swaps between first-place clubs, and with the Orioles turning to the Phillies to supplement their bullpen behind Craig Kimbrel and Yennier Cano.  The Orioles, who also added starters Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers in deadline deals, don’t share the Phillies’ payroll concerns.

Johnson, a 25-year-old righty, sports a 2.63 ERA, 22.6 K%, 13.0 BB%, and 40.4% groundball rate in 18 Double-A starts.  Drafted 40th overall by the Rays in 2019, Johnson went to the Orioles at the trade deadline two years ago in a three-team deal involving Trey Mancini and Jose Siri.  MLB.com gave him a 45 grade, noting, “He maintains the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter, though his age and placement on the 40-man roster could push Johnson into a bullpen role in the short term.”  Prior to the season, Baseball America assigned Johnson a 50 grade and had a similar outlook.

Chace, 21, has mostly had 3-4 inning outings in High-A this year.  He’s missed a healthy amount of bats with a 34.2 K%, but allowed plenty of walks with a 13.5 BB%.  Chace’s pitching coach, Jordie Henry, said to Baseball America’s Jon Meoli, “Even when he does have those [command] hiccups, knowing that we already know his ceiling at this level is really, really exciting.”

Orioles Acquire Eloy Jimenez

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The Orioles and White Sox pulled off a trade sending outfielder/designated hitter Eloy Jimenez and cash from Chicago to Baltimore for minor league reliever Trey McGough. Chicago is reportedly kicking in $4MM to cover almost all of the approximate $4.26MM remaining on his contract. The Sox would also pay down $1.5MM of the $3MM buyout on Jimenez’s 2025 club option, which the O’s are virtually certain to decline.

Jimenez, 27, was one of the highest-profile international signings in recent memory and one of the top-ranked prospects in all of baseball prior to his big league debut. He signed a then-record six-year, $43MM deal before ever playing a big league game. He’s earning $13MM this season in the final guaranteed season of that contract, which also contains club options valued at $16.5MM and $18.5MM for the next two seasons. The O’s should pay the $3MM buyout on his 2025 option, making Jimenez a free agent.

In the early stages of his career, Jimenez largely delivered on the hype, hitting .276/.327/.504 with 71 homers in his first 316 games. That includes a down year in 2021, but the Cuban-born slugger was well above-average in 2019, 2020 and 2022 — including a monster .295/.358/.500 slash with 16 homers in only 84 games in ’22.

Injuries have derailed Jimenez’s career, however. He’s been on the injured list for multiple hamstring strains — including a tear that sent him to the 60-day IL — an adductor strain, an appendectomy procedure, an ulnar nerve injury and a high ankle sprain. His once-potent bat has produced only a .240/.297/.345 output in 2024. Jimenez’s 18.9% strikeout rate is actually a career-low, however, and he’s averaging 92.4 mph off the bat with a huge 50.8% hard-hit rate. The O’s will hope that a change of scenery and those underlying metrics can bring about improvement of some degree, if not a return to peak form.

If that type of turnaround is to come to fruition, Jimenez will need a radical overhaul in his swing, however. He’s posted an astonishing 59.6% ground-ball rate this season — far and away the highest in baseball among active players. (Tim Anderson, released by the Marlins this year, technically leads him at 62.4% but isn’t with a team.) For a player that ranks in the sixth percentile of MLB players in terms of average sprint speed, pounding the ball into the ground that often is never going to yield much benefit — regardless of how hard the ball is put into play.

The Orioles, having moved Austin Hays in last week’s trade bringing reliever Seranthony Dominguez over from the Phillies, were reportedly on the hunt for a right-handed bat. Jimenez will fill that role to some extent, and it’s worth noting that he’s posted a strong .304/.360/.370 batting line against lefties in 2024. Again, however, he’s simply been far too prone to grounders whether facing lefties (59%) or righties (59.7%).

McGough, a 26-year-old lefty, came to the Orioles from the Pirates via the minor league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. He recently moved to the bullpen after recovering from Tommy John surgery and owns a sparkling 1.99 ERA in 54 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s fanned 25.5% of his opponents and walked 9.7% of them. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently listed him 37th among O’s prospects, calling him a potential low-leverage reliever whose best pitch is an above-average slider.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Orioles were finalizing a deal for Jimenez. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the White Sox were receiving McGough. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the cash breakdown.

Orioles To Acquire Trevor Rogers

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The Orioles are acquiring southpaw starting pitcher Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  The Marlins will receive second baseman/outfielder Connor Norby in the deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.  Miami also gets outfielder Kyle Stowers, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

Rogers marks the Orioles’ second recent rotation addition, after they acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays four days ago.  Rogers, 27 in November, owns a 4.53 ERA, 18.0 K%, 9.7 BB%, and 46.9% groundball rate in 105 1/3 innings this year.  Rogers has a 3.17 ERA over his last nine starts, but with no apparent improvement in his skills.

Rogers was at his best three years ago, when he made the All-Star team and finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting by posting a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings.  He averaged 94.6 miles per hour on his fastball that year, and looked like one of the game’s best young starters.  The lefty had a strong pedigree, as well, having been drafted 13th overall out of high school in 2017.

Things took a turn in 2022, as Rogers’ strikeout rate plummeted and he missed a month with lower back spasms.  That season also ended a bit early due to a lat strain.  2023 was worse, as Rogers’ season ended in April after four starts due to a left biceps strain and a partial tear in his right lat.

Rogers then entered the arbitration system, and is earning $1.53MM this year.  He remains under team control through 2026.  Rogers has avoided the IL thus far this year, but it’ll be up to Orioles pitching coach Drew French and the rest of the staff to attempt to help him regain his 2021 form.  Rogers’ average fastball velocity is down to 92.2 miles per hour this year, a notable 2.4 mile per hour drop from his one stellar season.

Having lost Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to Tommy John surgery, the first-place Orioles have a rotation of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Rogers.  Burnes and Means are eligible for free agency after the season, leaving Rodriguez, Kremer, and new additions Eflin and Rogers for 2025.

The Orioles had been connected to Garrett Crochet and Blake Snell, and could theoretically add one of them in the next three-plus hours, but are likely done with their rotation at this point.  Aside from Eflin and Rogers, Orioles executive vice president and GM Mike Elias also bolstered his bullpen by acquiring Seranthony Dominguez last week.

Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix did quite well in adding a pair of Major League-ready position players for two-plus years of Rogers.

Norby, 24, ranked 93rd on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2023 season.  Prior to this season, BA gave Norby a 50 grade, calling him a “bat-first second baseman” who can also handle left field.  The former 2021 second-rounder has spent most of the season repeating Triple-A, and has shown quite well with a 134 wRC+ in 80 games.  He’s gotten a few brief looks with the Orioles due to Jorge Mateo’s injuries, but has only played in nine big league games so far.  Norby is under the Marlins’ control through 2030 and will likely receive regular playing time at second base for the rest of the season.

Stowers, 26, was drafted by the Orioles in the second round out of Stanford in 2019.  Known for his big raw power from the left side, Stowers has been unable to secure regular playing time on the stacked Orioles since his 2022 debut.  Stowers, who is best-suited for right field, will get that chance with the Marlins.  Like Norby, Stowers has spent most of the season at Triple-A, posting a decent 115 wRC+.

If the Marlins did indeed come up with a pair of controllable regulars for a back-end starter in Rogers, it’ll be quite the win as Bendix makes his mark on the team.

At the time of this writing, Bendix still has three-plus hours remaining to further remake the Marlins, likely by dismantling his bullpen and possibly trading outfielder Bryan De La Cruz.  The team’s 2024 rotation is particularly bare with the departure of Rogers, leaving Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, and Kyle Tyler.  Jesus Luzardo is working his way back from a lumbar stress reaction, Ryan Weathers is recovering from an index finger strain, and Braxton Garrett is on the IL for a forearm strain.  Next year, the team will get Sandy Alcantara and eventually Eury Perez back from Tommy John surgery.

Garrett Crochet Rumors: Deadline Day

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White Sox ace Garrett Crochet has been the hottest name on the trade market this month, both because of the Sox’ own failed attempt to extend him and because his camp has since indicated that the left-hander wants an extension before pitching in October for a new club. Crochet’s 114 1/3 innings this season have already eclipsed his prior career total. He’s said to be against a move to the bullpen, believing that staying on a starter’s routine is best for his health, and aiming for financial security before pushing his workload even deeper into postseason waters.

It’s rubbed many fans the wrong way to see such a business-like approach, and it’s taken many in the industry aback — White Sox GM Chris Getz included, apparently. Via Sox Machine’s James Fegan, Getz spoke with reporters yesterday and acknowledged that he was “surprised and taken back” by how Crochet’s camp handled the situation, particularly as he’d had a conversation with the left-hander’s agent at CAA just the night before.

“I think most fans and even players without knowing everything, it makes sense,” said Getz. “We understand why a stance would be taken. Now how you go about expressing that is what was a bit hurtful, quite honestly, considering I felt like we could have handled it a little bit differently and still I think everyone accomplished what they wanted to accomplish. … But Garrett and I are fine, we are good. I’ll continue to be one of his top supporters. In regard to how it affects the coming days, tough to tell.”

We’ll round up today’s Crochet chatter here and break out any major developments into their own posts…

  • USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the White Sox have become increasingly optimistic that they’ll find someone to meet their asking price on Crochet even in the wake of his extension revelation. Per Nightengale, the Sox believe that they’ll trade Crochet between now and the 5:00pm CT deadline but expect to hang onto center fielder Luis Robert Jr. — as was reported to be the case regarding Robert just last night.
  • Both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggest that Crochet’s market remains strong. Rosenthal lists the Padres, Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Red Sox and Orioles as teams with varying levels of interest. Levine echoes much of that same list and quotes an executive from a rival AL club stating the relative obvious: “You don’t get a chance to find a top pitcher like that often. You must get creative.”
  • The Yankees inquired on Crochet at some point but were told in those initial talks that the two parties “didn’t match up” in a trade, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Yankees could always revisit talks, particularly with so many alternative rotation options off the board. New York has been tied to Tigers righty Jack Flaherty as well, and the Yankees are seeking a rotation upgrade as they simultaneously explore the possibility of moving Nestor Cortes in a separate deal.

Angels Notes: Rengifo, Ward, Pillar, Garcia, Trout

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Reports earlier this month indicated that the Angels were planning to move only their impending free agents at the deadline, and were looking to retain players controlled through the 2025 season or beyond.  The Halos have stuck to this plan to date by moving only Carlos Estevez to the Phillies, but it seems like the club is preparing to deal some longer-term assets, as rival executives tell MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand that both Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward are expected to be dealt.  “The Angels are listening to offers on” the duo, Feinsand writes.

The Red Sox and Dodgers are both reportedly in on Rengifo, the Pirates have had talks about Ward, and the Royals have previously been linked to both players in trade speculation.  With some interest percolating around the league, it stood to reason that the Angels might back down from whatever rentals-only stance they might’ve held earlier in the summer, if such a stance was even anything more than a negotiating tactic.

It is hard at this point to see the Angels returning to contention as early as next season, and therefore there seems to be little reason why the team wouldn’t be open to moving two of their better trade assets.  Rengifo is under arbitration control through the 2025 season and Ward won’t be a free agent until after the 2026 season, so this extra control would only add to their trade value, rather than perhaps act as a reason why Los Angeles should try to keep them with so many other glaring needs on the roster.

In terms of the Halos’ rental players, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (X link) that Kevin Pillar is getting “lots of interest” from rival teams.  Playing in a part-time capacity since signing with the Halos in April, Pillar is hitting .287/.343/.481 over 199 plate appearances — this works out to a 130 wRC+, miles above the 86 wRC+ Pillar posted in his 11 previous Major League seasons.

It counts as going out on a high note for a player who is planning to retire at season’s end, and joining a contender would be a nice way to perhaps add a championship ring to Pillar’s resume.  Even if some regression is probably inevitable given how Pillar is hitting so far above his career norms, the veteran can still provide outfield depth along with whatever he can do at the plate.

The Orioles are known to be looking for right-handed hitting outfielders, and Heyman writes in a separate X post that Pillar is one of the names on Baltimore’s list of possible targets.  The Orioles added Cristian Pache as part of the Austin Hays trade with the Phillies, but the 2024 version of Pillar would bring a lot more pop than a defensive specialist like Pache.

The Estevez trade got the ball rolling on the Angels’ moves and also created a hole at the back of the bullpen.  Manager Ron Washington told The Athletic’s Sam Blum (X link) and other reporters that Luis Garcia will close games unless Garcia is himself traded, and Ben Joyce would then be next in line for save situations.  Garcia is another pending free agent and there is plenty of interest in his services, so since he’ll likely be in another uniform within a day’s time, thus opening the door for Joyce.  A classic flame-throwing reliever, Joyce has garnered “closer of the future” buzz ever since he made his MLB debut last season, and he has a 2.11 ERA over 21 1/3 innings this year, albeit with a lot of subpar advanced metrics.

In non-trade news about the Angels’ biggest star, Washington told the Associated Press and other reporters that Mike Trout hadn’t yet restarted his running program after a setback with his surgically-repaired knee halted Trout’s minor league rehab assignment.  Trout played two Triple-A innings last Tuesday before leaving the game, and an MRI taken on Friday was clean, with Trout telling MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other media that the knee issue was related to some breaking scar tissue.

“It’s a huge relief for me.  I just have to make sure it feels good and I’ll be back out there.  Scar tissue breaking up is a weird feeling and I’d never experienced that,” Trout said.

Trout was hitting .220/.325/.541 with 10 homers over 126 PA when his knee problems arose at the end of April, and the three-time MVP hasn’t played since, apart from his brief Triple-A appearance last Tuesday.  While neither Trout or Washington held much concern over this latest setback, there won’t be much comfort until Trout is back onto the field, given how multiple injuries have plagued the outfielder over the last few years.

Orioles Interested In Blake Snell

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Giants left-hander Blake Snell might be available before the trade deadline, with the Yankees, Padres and Cubs having already been connected to him in rumors. The Orioles can be added to that pile, as Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports on X that the O’s are “aiming high” at the deadline thanks to their new owner and strong farm system.

The Orioles have generally acted very conservatively in recent years, hardly spending any money at all. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, since April 2018, the O’s haven’t given out a larger contract than the $13MM deal for Craig Kimbrel. The only multi-year deals they have given out have been two-year extensions for John Means and Félix Bautista, players that were already controllable but facing recoveries from Tommy John surgeries.

The lack of spending was somewhat justifiable while the club was in the depths of a rebuild, but it has carried over into the new competitive window that they are currently in. It has been speculated that things might open up once the planned sale of the club went through and there are some signs that is now happening.

David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club didn’t become official until the end of March, the cusp of Opening Day, so the O’s still had a fairly modest offseason. But here in the lead-up to the deadline, they have shown a willingness to absorb some money, both for this year and into the future. They acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays, with that pitcher still owed roughly $3.8MM of his $11MM salary and a big spike to $18MM next year. They also acquired Seranthony Dominguez from the Phillies, who is making $4.25MM this year and has an $8MM club option for next year.

Acquiring Snell would be a risky proposition on account of his opt-out but the O’s are perhaps the club best suited to take such a risk. As recently laid out by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco in a piece for Front Office subscribers, teams are usually hesitant to trade for players with player options or the ability to opt out. There’s no real difference between the terms “player option” or “opt-out”, as either one gives the player the control over what transpires.

Trading for such a player at the deadline comes with more downside than upside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will trigger the opt-out and leave, making them a rental. If they perform poorly or get hurt, the club is stuck with them at a price that’s unpalatable, as the player wouldn’t have accepted it otherwise.

Due to their lack of spending in recent years, the O’s came into this year with almost nothing on the books for 2025 and beyond. The $1MM owed to Bautista was the only guarantee, though they have since added Eflin’s $18MM, as mentioned. They have a few club options and some arbitration-eligible players, but they have hardly anything committed for next year.

Snell signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants coming into 2024. That comes in the form of a $15MM salary and $17MM signing bonus, the latter of which is reportedly not transferable to a trade partner. He then has a $30MM player option for next year.

The results have been inconsistent so far, as they have been throughout much of Snell’s career. He has two Cy Young awards, in 2018 and 2023, but struggled in between. Though he was in Cy Young form just last year, his 2024 got off to a rough start.

Since he didn’t sign until the second half of March, he had a hasty ramp-up and then struggled in his first three starts. He landed on the injured list with an adductor strain, came back for three more bad outings, then returned to the IL with a groin strain.

He was sitting on a 9.51 ERA after those six starts but has since returned and been dominant. He’s made four starts since coming off his second IL stint and only allowed two earned runs in 24 innings. He has struck out 35.7% of batters faced in those four outings, highlighted by punching out 15 Rockies in six shutout innings on Saturday.

The Giants are below .500 at 53-55. That only puts them 3.5 games back of a playoff spot in a relatively weak National League Wild Card race, but they may consider doing some selling. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs still give them a 21.2% chance of sneaking into the postseason though the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them down at 9.8%, which could lead to them prioritizing the future.

Making Snell available could allow them to recoup some prospect talent while also clearing $30MM off next year’s payroll that they could reinvest in the team. That might happen anyway if Snell opts out but isn’t a guarantee. Such a move would hurt them in 2024 but wouldn’t necessarily punt their season, as they could still go into the stretch run with a rotation core of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray. There’s also Alex Cobb, who was supposed to be reinstated from the IL over the weekend but was delayed by a blister. The club also has young starters like Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong that they could work into the mix.

Snell’s talents will undoubtedly lead to many exploratory calls, but the offers might be tempered by the player option situation. That’s especially true of club’s with competitive balance tax concerns, which applies to the three other clubs connected to Snell. The Yankees are slated to be a third-time payor and above the fourth tax tier, meaning they are facing a 110% tax on any new spending they take on. Next year’s payroll is more open but they will want to have some powder dry for making a run at Juan Soto and other free agents. The Padres and Cubs are both right up against the base CBT threshold this year and seem loath to cross it.

The O’s are nowhere near any tax concerns and have loads of payroll flexibility, making them an interesting fit on Snell. The front of their rotation now consists of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Eflin, with Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez in the back end. Kremer’s career 4.32 ERA makes him fine for eating regular season innings but the O’s would ideally like to push him out of consideration for playoff starts. Suarez has a solid 3.62 ERA this year but is a 34-year-old journeyman who didn’t pitch in the majors from 2018 to 2023, meaning Baltimore probably doesn’t want to be relying on him either.

Whether it’s Snell or someone else, it seems possible they make some kind of bold strike in the days to come. In addition to the payroll flexibility, their farm system is regarded as one of the best in the league, giving them plenty of prospect capital to work with. The trade deadline is Tuesday at 5pm Central.

Orioles Still Looking To Make Additions

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The Orioles have already made a few notable moves in the lead-up to the trade deadline. They sent outfielder Austin Hays to the Phillies for fellow outfielder Cristian Pache and reliever Seranthony Domínguez, and also bolstered their rotation by acquiring Zach Eflin from the Rays. But they still have work to do, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting that they are looking to add another reliever, who would ideally be left-handed, as well as a right-handed hitting outfielder to replace Hays and perhaps another starting pitcher.

Even with Eflin slotting in behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, it’s easy to see why the O’s would want to add yet another arm into that mix. The final two rotation spots are currently held by Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez, both of whom could be improved upon.

Kremer has a servicebale 4.32 earned run average in his career and a 4.20 mark this year, but his .240 batting average on balls in play here in 2024 might be keeping that ERA artificially low. In general, he’s been more of a back-end guy than the type of arm they would want in the mix for starting a playoff game. Suárez is in the big leagues for the first time since 2017, having spent much of the interim pitching in Japan and Korea. His 3.48 ERA this year is certainly respectable but he’s 34 years old and the O’s have kicked him to the bullpen before.

Rosenthal adds that the club is willing to add a rental starter to that pile, listing Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Blake Snell and Frankie Montas as possible fits. Snell has another year left on his deal but has an opt-out at year’s end. Rosenthal says teams are expecting him to trigger that opt-out but it’s not a guarantee, as it’s entirely possible some injury or poor performance leads to him taking the proverbial bird in the hand. Trading players with opt-outs is a tricky situation that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers.

The mention of Flaherty is interesting as the O’s acquired him at last year’s deadline and it didn’t go well. The righty had a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings with Baltimore last year, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process.

However, he has completely turned things around here in 2024. In 18 starts with the Tigers, he has a 2.95 ERA, 32% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. That’s the best form he’s been in since 2019, when he looked to be breaking out as one of the better pitchers in the league. He then suffered through a number of injury-marred seasons and took some time getting over them, but there’s no doubting he’s been excellent this year.

Front offices are generally loath to reacquire a player if they already had him and it didn’t go well. If the second attempt also fails to deliver, then it invites the obvious criticism of why they tried the same thing that already didn’t work once, something that was recently discussed on the MLBTR Podcast. However, Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic published a column a few days ago that said the O’s aren’t ruling out another run at Flaherty.

Though there’s a chance for a negative PR situation if Flaherty struggles in Baltimore again, he’s got the best combination of talent and availability among starting pitchers. He is on a one-year deal and therefore a rental, pitching for a Detroit club that is 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. While pitchers like Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal are in a similar range as Flaherty in terms of impact, they may be harder to pry loose.

Both of Skubal and Crochet are controllable for two years behind this season, meaning the price will be higher. Crochet also has the extra complication of his unclear path to the end of the season, as his limited workload makes it unclear what he can contribute. Some clubs may want to move him to a relief role but Crochet himself reportedly prefers to continue starting and would want to sign a contract extension prior to adjusting his routine.

With the question marks around Skubal and Crochet, it makes sense that the O’s aren’t crossing Flaherty off their list of targets, as the other options are less appealing. Kikuchi and Montas are having okay but not amazing years, to differing extents, while Snell has been inconsistent and also has the aforementioned contract complications.

Turning to the bullpen, though Domínguez is a nice addition, further upgrades make plenty of sense. Baltimore relievers have a collective 3.87 ERA this year, which places them 14th out of the 30 clubs in the majors. With Danny Coulombe on the injured list, their southpaw contingent is made up of Cionel Pérez, Keegan Akin and Cole Irvin. Akin has really good numbers this year but hasn’t been pitching in many high-leverage situations. Pérez has been given more meaningful assignments but with a subpar 4.40 ERA. Irvin was in the rotation before some struggles got him nudged into a long relief role.

Upgrading that group is plenty sensible and the O’s have already been connected to Tanner Scott of the Orioles. Other lefties that could be available include Andrew Chafin of the Tigers, Jalen Beeks of the Rockies, Taylor Rogers of the Giants and others.

In the outfield, the club leans heavily left-handed with Hays now out of the mix. Pache is right-handed but he’s mostly a defensive specialist, having hit .179/.243/.272 in his career. Anthony Santander is a switch-hitter but each of Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers hit from the left side, as does designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and shortstop Gunnar Henderson.

Getting another righty in there makes sense, especially if they end up moving on from first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. They are reportedly open to trading him and/or Mullins, though sending out Hays perhaps makes those scenarios less likely.

Rosenthal throws out veterans Tommy Pham and Kevin Pillar as a couple of righty-swinging outfielders that could make sense for the O’s, though guys like Brent Rooker, Luis Robert Jr., Lane Thomas, Miguel Andujar and Taylor Ward could also be available. The trade deadline is 5pm Central on Tuesday July 30.

Phillies Notes: Hays, Marsh, Green, Arozarena

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The Phillies and Orioles completed an intriguing trade Friday that saw Baltimore land Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache in exchange for Austin Hays, which represented something of a lengthy pursuit for Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.  The executive told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”

The O’s finally budged, perhaps due to both Dominguez addressing Baltimore’s bullpen needs, and Hays’ increasingly expendable nature within a crowded Orioles outfield.  An ice-cold start to the season and then a four-week IL stint due to a calf strain led to Hays’ playing time being reduced, though he has hit quite well in a more limited capacity over the last two-plus months.  Even with the first six weeks of the season essentially being a wash, Hays has gotten his offensive production back above league average, delivering a 102 wRC+ from a .255/.316/.395 slash line over 175 plate appearances.

It isn’t too far removed from the 108 wRC+ Hays posted over 1677 PA with Baltimore from 2021-23, and his recent hot streak indicates that Hays could certainly still match or surpass that number over the rest of the 2024 campaign.  Hays’ numbers against right-handed pitching are far below his career norms, so if those stats in particular pick up, Hays will certainly put himself in line for more of a regular role in the Phillies’ lineup.

“We don’t think he’s just in a position where he has to be platooned by any means,” Dombrowski said about Hays, who for now seemingly will join with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh as part of a timeshare in left field.  Marsh could also be moved to center field to split time with the righty-swinging Johan Rojas should Hays force his way into everyday duty in left field.  As Lauber notes, Marsh’s own splits have cut into his playing time — Marsh has been crushing righties but struggling badly against lefties this season, thus necessitating the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat for the outfield picture.

Addressing that need cost the Phils an experienced reliever in Dominguez, which was no small matter for a Philadelphia team that was already known to be looking for bullpen help prior to the trade.  “We just felt that for us to get a right-handed hitter we had to give up something,” Dombrowski said, and the club will now target “somebody who can pitch innings late in a game that are important innings for us, like our other guys do.”

Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, and Michael Kopech are some of the more prominent relievers linked to Philadelphia’s trade pursuits in recent weeks, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green is also “one of the Phillies’ top targets,” in the words of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).  Green is generally considered to be available given how the struggling Jays will be selling to some extent at the deadline, though Toronto is reportedly focusing on selling pending free agents, whereas Green is under contract through the 2025 season.

As per the unusual multi-option terms of the deal Green signed in January 2023, he ended up earning $21MM over the 2024-25 seasons, once the Blue Jays exercised the two-year version of their club option last fall.  This translates to $10.5MM in 2025 and roughly $3.5MM left in salary this season.  This is no small matter to a Phillies team that is on pace to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and would ideally like to avoid the third penalty tier of $277MM.  RosterResource has the Phils at roughly a $262.3MM tax number right now, and crossing the $277MM line would give the Phillies a 95% tax on any overages, plus their first pick in the 2025 draft would be dropped back by 10 spots.

The Jays could potentially eat more of Green’s salary if the Phillies were to offer a better prospect return, so there are ways for the Phils to work around the payroll issue (while leaving room for other deadline upgrades) if they decide Green is their guy on the trade market.  The veteran righty has a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings for Toronto this season, though his 3.82 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of Green’s performance.  Green has benefited greatly from a 100% strand rate and a .187 BABIP, and his 23.1% strikeout rate is a little below average, while his 7.7% walk rate is pretty respectable.

In other trade roads not taken, Lauber and Gelb both wrote that the Phillies talked with the Rays about Randy Arozarena before the outfielder was dealt to the Mariners on Thursday.  Gelb noted that Tampa Bay wanted “a top prospect” in exchange for Arozarena, but the Phils weren’t willing to part with the unknown player.

Landing Arozarena would’ve certainly counted as more of a blockbuster move to address Philadelphia’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder.  While Dombrowski has made a habit of trading prospects for established stars during his storied front office career, it could be that the PBO didn’t want to move whatever particular minor leaguer the Rays wanted, or Dombrowski was wary in general about depleting from the Phillies’ somewhat limited farm system.

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